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JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 11:04 AM
I'm devoting this thread solely to stats & number crunching for easy lookup.

I will include the subject of the stat in subject field of each message. I encourage others to do the same.

Gracias

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 11:44 AM
x = off day
Apr
MB,x,BC,JG @ KC
EL,MB,DW vs DT
BC,x,JG,MB @ CL
EL,BC,DW,x @ DT
MB,JG,BC vs KC
EL,DW,MB,JG vs CL
BC,EL,DW vs BA
MB,JG,BC,x vs MN
EL,MB,JG vs OK

MB=7,BC=6,JG=6,EL=5,DW=4 : 28

May
BC,DW,EL,x vs SE
MB,JG,BC @ OK
EL,DW,MB,x @ SE
BC,JG,EL vs BA
MB,DW,BC @ MN
JG,EL,MB,x vs TO
BC,JG,EL vs DT
MB,DW,BC,JG @ TO
EL,MB,DW,BC @ CL

MB=6,BC=7,JG=5,EL=6,DW=5 : 29

Jun
JG,EL,MB @ AR
BC,DW,JG,x @ LA
MB,BC,JG vs SF
EL,DW,MB vs SD
BC,JG,EL,DW vs BO
MB,BC,JG,x @ CC
EL,MB,BC @ MN
JG,DW,MB vs CC
BC,EL,JG,x vs MN

MB=6,BC=6,JG=7,EL=5,DW=4 : 28

Jul (pre AS)
MB, BC, JG,x @ TB
EL,MB,DW @ DT
BC,JG,EL @ CL

MB=2,BC=2,JG=2,EL=2,DW=1 : 9

(I'll edit the post for the 2nd 1/2 after the break )

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 12:25 PM
KF 2K: 2.97era, 3W,1L, 34/39%sv, 72g, 88ip, 29er, 9hr, 22w/91k
vs ANA: 3/4%sv, 5g, 1er
vs BAL: 3g, 1r
vs BOS: 3g,1r
vs CIN: 2/2sv%, 2g, 2r
vs CLE: 3/3sv%, 4g, 1r
vs KAN: 2/3sv%, 6g, 1r
vs MIL: 1g, 4er
vs MIN: 4/4sv%, 6g, 3r
vs NYY: 1/1sv%, 5g, 7r
vs SEA: 4/4sv%, 7g, 3r
vs TAM: 1L, 3/4sv%, 6g, 2r
vs TEX: 1/2sv%, 4g, 1r
vs TOR: 4/4sv%, 5g, 1r
all others 0r surrendered

BK 2K2: 3.27era, 11W,4L, 44/50%sv, 84g, 93ip, 34er, 7hr, 46w/93k
vs ANA: 1w,2l, 7/7sv%, 12g, 2r
vs KAN: 3w,1l, 3/4sv%, 7g, 2r
vs MIN: 1w,0l, 3/3sv%, 5g, 1r
vs PITT: 0w,0l, 3/3sv%, 3g, 1r
vs SEA: 2w,0l, 1/1sv%, 6g, 1r
vs TAM: 0w,0l,3/4sv%, 7g, 3r
vs TEX: 3w,1l,4/7sv%, 10g, 12r
vs TOR: 0w,0l, 2/2sv%, 5g, 12r
all others 0r surrendered.

Without question BK's contribution to OAK in 2k2 exceeded that of KF's in 2k.
BK's day to day performance exceeded KF's best ever year.
Day to day performance is the true value of a closer and the SOX have the best in the AL right now.

Further breakdown of TEX & TOR games for BK2:

TEX :
Apr 4ip, 2r, team went 4-0, Jul 3ip, 5r, team went 1-2, Sep 4ip, 5r, team went 4-0
TOR: May 3ip, 11r, team went 1-2, Aug 2ip, 1r, team went 2-0

Further breakdown shows:
@TEX 9r, @TOR 11r

Even more impressive:
He surrendered 26/34r in a total of 6 gms, leaving a surrender of 8r in a total of 78 gms.

There's little wonder why he won Rolaid's Man of Relief award.

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 03:07 PM
He looks like another JB. He's had enough success to suggest that against SOX opponents he could be a very good pick up & a serviceable 4/5.

(ip/er)
2k2: 6/3, 9/0, 7/3, 7/2, .. 3/6, 4/5, 6/3, 7/2, 4/7, 6/3 .. 4/6, 7/1, 5/6, 6/3, ..6/3, 7/2, 7/1, 4/8, 8/3, 9/4, .. 7/5, 7/3, 6/7, 3/9, 9/1

good news: (era)
vs BAL 2.78r
vs BOS 2.57r
vs SOX 6.75r
vs CLE 3.68r
vs DET 2.46r
vs LAD 2.57r
vs MIN 4.77r
vs OAK 0.55r
vs SEA 3.46r

bad news: (era)
vs NYY 6.92r
vs SFG 12.27r
vs TAM 16.58r
vs TEX 18.00r

(ip/er)
2k1: 7/1, 7/2, 5/3, 6/1, 7/3, 7/2, .. 5/6, 6/8, 6/6, 6/5, .. 7/3, 7/1, 8/1, ..6/7, 5/4, 8/3, 6/5, 1/5, 1/1, 2/0, 2/1, .. 5/3, 6/3, 7/1, 6/3, 6/5, 8/3, .. 5/6, 5/3, 9/0, 2/2, 4/7, ..1/0, 2/0, ..7/0, 5/2

good news:
vs DET 1.64r
vs KAN 3.86r
vs MIN 5.11r
vs CLE 3.60r
vs TEX 3.86r
vs BAL 3.86r
vs SOX 1.29r
vs NYY 3.52r

bad news:
vs BOS 6.00r
vs FLA 11.61r
vs MON 8.44r
vs OAK 11.81r
vs SEA 9.00r

SuckerforSox
03-24-2003, 03:30 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
vs MIN 4.77r
vs MIN 5.11r


How do these 2 ERA's fall under good news?

hold2dibber
03-24-2003, 03:34 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
KF 2K: 2.97era, 3W,1L, 34/39%sv, 72g, 88ip, 29er, 9hr, 22w/91k
vs ANA: 3/4%sv, 5g, 1er
vs BAL: 3g, 1r
vs BOS: 3g,1r
vs CIN: 2/2sv%, 2g, 2r
vs CLE: 3/3sv%, 4g, 1r
vs KAN: 2/3sv%, 6g, 1r
vs MIL: 1g, 4er
vs MIN: 4/4sv%, 6g, 3r
vs NYY: 1/1sv%, 5g, 7r
vs SEA: 4/4sv%, 7g, 3r
vs TAM: 1L, 3/4sv%, 6g, 2r
vs TEX: 1/2sv%, 4g, 1r
vs TOR: 4/4sv%, 5g, 1r
all others 0r surrendered

BK 2K2: 3.27era, 11W,4L, 44/50%sv, 84g, 93ip, 34er, 7hr, 46w/93k
vs ANA: 1w,2l, 7/7sv%, 12g, 2r
vs KAN: 3w,1l, 3/4sv%, 7g, 2r
vs MIN: 1w,0l, 3/3sv%, 5g, 1r
vs PITT: 0w,0l, 3/3sv%, 3g, 1r
vs SEA: 2w,0l, 1/1sv%, 6g, 1r
vs TAM: 0w,0l,3/4sv%, 7g, 3r
vs TEX: 3w,1l,4/7sv%, 10g, 12r
vs TOR: 0w,0l, 2/2sv%, 5g, 12r
all others 0r surrendered.

Without question BK's contribution to OAK in 2k2 exceeded that of KF's in 2k.
BK's day to day performance exceeded KF's best ever year.
Day to day performance is the true value of a closer and the SOX have the best in the AL right now.


I think Koch is a damn good closer, and I'm glad to have him since Foulke's contract status made him unlikely to return after this year. But I don't see how, after examining those numbers, you can say Koch's 2002 contribution "without question" exceed Foulke's 2000 contribution. Koch had more saves, but that was a funciton of getting more save opportunities (their save conversion rates were virtually identical). Foulke's ERA and k/ip were both better. Foulke only threw 5 less innings. I'd call the two years pretty much a wash. And I think that if you compare their career stats, instead of just picking best year, you'll see that Foulke has been better.

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 03:54 PM
Ritchie had one of the worst yrs of his carreer in 2k2, from a win-loss perspective Colon is is +15 over Ritchie.

But the VASC argue that Ritchie wasn't as bad as the numbers showed, & Colon wasn't as good. So they are predicting a gain of about 1/2 leaving the SOX with 88/89 wins. Let's look at the numbers.

2k2: Ritchie had 12 of 23 starts where he pitched 5+in, & er <= (ip/2). He had 5w. That's 52% winnable starts, & 42% wins/winnable starts.

2K1: Ritchie had 19 of 33 starts where he pitched 5+in, & er <= (ip/2). He had 11w. That's 58% winnable starts, & 58% wins/winnable starts.

Even if you were predicting Ritchie would only pitch about 23 starts, it's hard to argue that the SOX were expected to win at least 83 gms.

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 04:10 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I think Koch is a damn good closer, and I'm glad to have him since Foulke's contract status made him unlikely to return after this year. But I don't see how, after examining those numbers, you can say Koch's 2002 contribution "without question" exceed Foulke's 2000 contribution. Koch had more saves, but that was a funciton of getting more save opportunities (their save conversion rates were virtually identical). Foulke's ERA and k/ip were both better. Foulke only threw 5 less innings. I'd call the two years pretty much a wash. And I think that if you compare their career stats, instead of just picking best year, you'll see that Foulke has been better.

When looking at a closer stats based on averages like ERA & k/ip are not enough because they don't give you a measure of his consistency gm in & gm out. When you consider that Koch gave up only 8 runs over a span of 78 games in 2k2, he clearly was more consistent than Foulke in 2K.

Remember I am comparing BK 2k2 to KF 2k. It's more likely BK will be closer to his 2K2 numbers than KF will be closer to his 2K numbers in 2k3.

JUGGERNAUT
03-24-2003, 05:18 PM
[QUOTE]Originally posted by SuckerforSox
How do these 2 ERA's fall under good news? [/QUOTE

He's not expected to start against them.
So part of his bad era are teams he's not expected to face.

hold2dibber
03-24-2003, 05:31 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
[QUOTE]Originally posted by SuckerforSox
How do these 2 ERA's fall under good news? [/QUOTE

He's not expected to start against them.
So part of his bad era are teams he's not expected to face.

Huh?

JUGGERNAUT
03-25-2003, 09:32 AM
Danny Wright should be the 4th starter by the time the SOX face MIN. Though his era vs MIN is not good, it's still better than any other option at the 5th spot the SOX have with the exception of Rauch, but Rauch lost his job in ST & will now have to earn it back in AAA.

I think he has an upward battle ahead as the team is still considering bring Stewart up North to start.