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View Full Version : Foulke article in the Oakland Trib


MisterB
03-21-2003, 05:03 PM
A's bullpen swap: finesse for power (http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~10835~1259787,00.html)

ChiSox14305635
03-22-2003, 08:04 AM
I think Keith will have a little bit more success in Oakland. He always seem liked a laid-back pitcher, and that's more of a laid-back team, so he should fit in nicely. Of course, I'm excited we got Koch, as we need that intensity come the 9th inning. I'd say it was an even trade overall.

TheBigHurt
03-22-2003, 08:07 AM
FOULKE will have his 2000, 2001 numbers again

gosox41
03-22-2003, 10:11 AM
Originally posted by ChiSox14305635
I think Keith will have a little bit more success in Oakland. He always seem liked a laid-back pitcher, and that's more of a laid-back team, so he should fit in nicely. Of course, I'm excited we got Koch, as we need that intensity come the 9th inning. I'd say it was an even trade overall.

I still think the Sox got hosed in this trade.

First, statistcally Foulke is ab etter pitcher then Koch. Maybe not by a huge margin, but a significant enough one. Sure Foulke had a rough patch last season where he blew a few saves, but until that happened there were minimal complaints about Foulke.

Second, losing Mark Johnson hurtst the Sox more then you think. If the Sox had kept Johnson, my guess is that Olivo would be the starting catcher and Johnson would be the back up. The Sox would not have invest $750K into the oft-injured Sandy Alomar Jr and may have used that money to acquire a pitcher on the free agent market. Now, the Sox are stuck with Josh Paul, a guy who hits less then Johnson and can't play defense nearly as well to back up Alomar. Olivo will be better the both, he just needs expereince.

Third, the Sox gave up a power pitcher in Joe Valentine to get a power pitcher. Why not just bring him up? He may not be as good as Koch right now, but he's got the potential and is a lot cheaper. Oakland likes him and they seem to have more success in spotting young pitchers then the Sox. I think Foulke and Valentin in the bullpen is more effective then just Koch.

Fourth, the lefty the Sox got (I can't recall his last name, is it Cotts?). Sure he had impressive numbers in the minors, but he is a 22/23 year old lefty facing 18/19 year olds. He should be higher up in the minors. Put up those numbers in AA or AAA and I'll get excited. Until then he's just a mor experienced pitcher dominating high school aged kids who don't have the benefit of college expereince and need to adjust to the minors. It's hard to get excited about him.

Just my 2 cents.

Bob

ScottyTheSoxFan
03-22-2003, 04:44 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
I still think the Sox got hosed in this trade.
Third, the Sox gave up a power pitcher in Joe Valentine to get a power pitcher. Why not just bring him up? He may not be as good as Koch right now, but he's got the potential and is a lot cheaper. Oakland likes him and they seem to have more success in spotting young pitchers then the Sox. I think Foulke and Valentin in the bullpen is more effective then just Koch.


we have royce ring and ed almonte also as future bull pen guys/closers. valentine was expendable.

JUGGERNAUT
03-22-2003, 05:51 PM
Keith is going to struggle in the ALW. He has a very poor record against SEA, TEX, & ANA.

Inside the numbers :
Koch gave up 34er in 93ip last yr.
But guess what?
24 of those runs came against 2 teams:
TOR & TEX

He'll make us nervous with BB. But strike out the side thereafter more often than not.

There's little chance of Koch getting nickled & dime to death like Foulke used to.

MarkEdward
03-22-2003, 06:55 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
Keith is going to struggle in the ALW. He has a very poor record against SEA, TEX, & ANA.


Snuh?

ERA vs. Texas: 1.93, 14 IP
ERA vs. Anaheim: 2.51, 14 IP
ERA vs. Seattle: 5.00 18 IP

I really wouldn't call that struggling.

Wsoxmike59
03-23-2003, 07:37 AM
I too think Foulke is going to return to his 2000-01 form with the A's. Also with the A's starting staff of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder as the big 3, Foulke should get lots of opportunities to close out ballgames with a lead.

My guess is Foulkie is going to have 40-45 saves this year.

doublem23
03-23-2003, 10:28 AM
We got the raw end of the deal, IMO, but not as bad as some of KW's trades. It's likely that Foulke will be a bit better than Koch, though, I don't see a Koch breakdown unless Jerry Manuel gets mad at him and jerks him around in the bullpen.

Losing Mark Johnson hurts way more, anyways. As bad as MJ was, the combination of Alomar, Paul, and Olivo is much worse.

JUGGERNAUT
03-23-2003, 11:02 AM
2K2
vs. NYY 19.29 era
vs. OAK 3.00 era
vs. PHI 13.50 era
vs. SEA 10.39 era
vs. TEX 18.00 era
vs. ANA 3.86 era

2k1
vs ANA 3.00 era
vs OAK 5.40 era
vs SEA 6.75 era
vs MIN 8.64 era

I'm very happy with the trade.
Foulke's 13L in 2yrs, is 4 more than Koch despite having thrown less innings & far less saves and save opps.

JUGGERNAUT
03-23-2003, 11:24 AM
So here's the details:

KF: 2k2
vs ANA 3.86, 4g, 1L, 0sv, 0svo
vs BAL 4.15, 4g, 2sv/2svo
vs DET 3.86, 9g, 3sv/3svo
vs MON 9.00, 1g, 1L
vs NYY 19.29, 2g, 1L, 0sv/1svo
vs OAK 3.00, 3g, 0sv/0svo
vs PHI 13.50, 1g, 0sv/0svo
vs SEA 10.39, 5g, 1L, 1sv/2svo
vs TEX 18.00, 1g, 0sv/0svo
all others, were 0.00era

BK: 2k2
vs ANA 1.64 era, 12g, 1w, 2L, 7sv/7svo
vs KAN 2.25 era, 7g, 3w, 1L, 3sv/4svo
vs MIN 1.80 era, 5g, 1w, 0L, 3sv/3svo
vs PIT 3.00 era, 3g, 3sv/3svo
vs SEA 1.08 era, 6g, 2w, 0L, 1sv/1svo
vs TAM 3.68 era, 7g, 3sv/4svo
vs TEX 9.68 era, 10g, 3w, 1L, 4sv/7svo
vs TOR 27.00 era, 5g, 2sv/2svo
all others, were 0.00era

This is a perfect example of why just looking at overall ERA is not good enough for comparison.

Koch is clearly a better closer at this point in his career than Keith is. The comparison is really not that close. If you compare Koch's 2k2 to Foulke's 2k Koch is the much better performer when you considered wins & the number of games in which he contributed to a win vs the number of games he lost.

MarkEdward
03-23-2003, 03:31 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
[B]So here's the details:

KF: 2k2
vs ANA 3.86, 4g, 1L, 0sv, 0svo
vs BAL 4.15, 4g, 2sv/2svo
vs DET 3.86, 9g, 3sv/3svo
vs MON 9.00, 1g, 1L
vs NYY 19.29, 2g, 1L, 0sv/1svo
vs OAK 3.00, 3g, 0sv/0svo
vs PHI 13.50, 1g, 0sv/0svo
vs SEA 10.39, 5g, 1L, 1sv/2svo
vs TEX 18.00, 1g, 0sv/0svo
all others, were 0.00era

Um, small sample sizes?

This is a perfect example of why just looking at overall ERA is not good enough for comparison.

You're right. So let's look at some other career numbers:

ERA+- Foulke (491 IP): 139; Koch (305 IP): 138
Hits/9IP- Foulke: 7.31; Koch: 8.11
BB/9- Foulke: 2.22; Koch: 3.75
K/9- Foulke: 8.40; Koch: 7.82
HR/9- Foulke: .95; Koch: .74

So Foulke leads in all but one category.

TheBigHurt
03-23-2003, 05:08 PM
thanks MarkEdward for again making it all make sense :) :D: :gulp:

BE GOOD SON'S

gosox41
03-23-2003, 09:48 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Um, small sample sizes?



You're right. So let's look at some other career numbers:

ERA+- Foulke (491 IP): 139; Koch (305 IP): 138
Hits/9IP- Foulke: 7.31; Koch: 8.11
BB/9- Foulke: 2.22; Koch: 3.75
K/9- Foulke: 8.40; Koch: 7.82
HR/9- Foulke: .95; Koch: .74

So Foulke leads in all but one category.

I'm glad you posted that to clarify things a little bit. I am surprised to see that Foulke has more K's per 9 innings then Koch.

BOb

Juan Pizarro
03-24-2003, 09:56 AM
Let's see how much the love Foulke when he spits the bit in Seattle -- again.

gosox41
03-24-2003, 10:11 AM
Originally posted by Juan Pizarro
Let's see how much the love Foulke when he spits the bit in Seattle -- again.

I just have a feeling that the Sox are going to regret this trade in the short and long run. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Bob

JUGGERNAUT
03-28-2003, 12:01 PM
which allow KF to have better overall numbers because he's faced the ALC over his career whereas BK has faced the ALE & ALW.

Good overall annualized numbers does not a better closer make.

How the closer performs on a game to game basis is much more important than his annual stats. When you look at the game to game comparison BK
is clearly the better closer.

As for a small sample size, I'm wondering if you read it.
At the bottom of those teams that actually scored runs off the pitcher, it says all others 0.00 era vs. The sample covers the entire year.










.

JUGGERNAUT
03-28-2003, 03:01 PM
<pun intended>.

Look at how Koch's #"s stack up to Rivera's for the last 4 yrs:

Koch:
277G, 305ip, 265K, 22W-17L, 144/167SV%
Rivera:
248G, 271ip, 234K, 16W-17L, 149/169sv%

Now sure Koch's 3.48 era is not as impressive as Rivera's 2.74 era, but if that difference really didn't factor in the CLOSER #'s who really cares?

JUGGERNAUT
03-28-2003, 03:09 PM
Last 4 yrs:

Koch:
277G, 305ip, 265K, 22W-17L, 144/167SV%
Rivera:
248G, 271ip, 234K, 16W-17L, 149/169sv%
Soulke:
276G, 351ip, 247K, 12W-17L, 93/108sv%

thecell
03-28-2003, 03:48 PM
Who cares!!!! We have a helluva closer that's locked up for a cheaper price and longer than Foulke was. Foulke would have been gone at the end of this season and we'd be looking for a new closer. Plus, Koch brings intensity to this team. Foulke was never an intense player. Koch is gonna come in, pump this team up, throw 100 MPH and strike out the side with some GAS! This bullpen should be set for at least the next 2 seasons.

JUGGERNAUT
03-28-2003, 04:38 PM
he will make you nervous with the free passes as well.

He avg'd less than a K per ip, so my guess is that he induces a lot of DP's to close out the inning.

It's still an exciting way to end the game!

T Dog
03-28-2003, 08:04 PM
What? We're getting a closer who will make us nervous? I never felt nervous with Foulke.