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czalgosz
03-19-2003, 03:46 PM
Over at Baseball Primer, a guy threw together a rough-and-ready schedule comparison, to see who had the toughest and who had the weakest schedule. The result? The Twins had the easiest schedule in the AL central, the Sox the toughest.

http://www.baseballprimer.com/articles/hutcheson_2003-03-19_0.shtml

Brian26
03-19-2003, 03:49 PM
Huh? Am I missing something here? Don't the Twins and Sox play basically the same schedule, with the exception of the Cubs twice for the Sox?

Don't the Sox and Twins play the AL West and AL East the same number of times? Maybe I'm just overlooking something that's obvious here...

czalgosz
03-19-2003, 03:54 PM
The differences -

The Sox play the Cubs 6 times, while the Twins play the Brewers 6 times. Say what you like about the Cubs, but they're better than the Brewers.

The Sox play the Dodgers 3 times, while the Twins play the Rockies 3 times. Again, the Dodgers are better than the Rockies.

The Six "throw in games" to round out the schedule -

Sox - 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. Toronto
Twins - 2 vs. Anaheim, 1 vs. Baltimore, 1 vs. Yankees, 2 vs. Texas.

Other than that, the two schedules are identical. So it's pretty clear that the Sox have the tougher schedule.

Brian26
03-19-2003, 03:54 PM
Ok, I just read the article. The only difference between the Twins and Sox schedule is that the Sox play the Dodgers instead of Colorado, and they play the Cubs for two series instead of the Brewers. Worth doing a master's thesis about? Probably not.

TheBigHurt
03-19-2003, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
Huh? Am I missing something here? Don't the Twins and Sox play basically the same schedule, with the exception of the Cubs twice for the Sox?

Don't the Sox and Twins play the AL West and AL East the same number of times? Maybe I'm just overlooking something that's obvious here...

im with you on this

czalgosz
03-19-2003, 03:58 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
Ok, I just read the article. The only difference between the Twins and Sox schedule is that the Sox play the Dodgers instead of Colorado, and they play the Cubs for two series instead of the Brewers. Worth doing a master's thesis about? Probably not.

There are 15 games that are different. In 12 of those games, the Sox will be playing an opponent who is significantly better than the Twins' corresponding opponent. It might boil down to only a game or two difference in the standings, but if it's as close as people think, a game or two might well be crucial.

kermittheefrog
03-19-2003, 03:59 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
Ok, I just read the article. The only difference between the Twins and Sox schedule is that the Sox play the Dodgers instead of Colorado, and they play the Cubs for two series instead of the Brewers. Worth doing a master's thesis about? Probably not.

It could be a difference of a couple games in the standing which could easily be meaningful.

MisterB
03-19-2003, 04:19 PM
He's just comparing the parts of the schedule that aren't common to all teams in the same division. His methodology is kind of suspect, but what it boils down to is the difference between the Sox' and Twins' schedules is 15 games in which the Sox play the Cubs (6 games), Dodgers (3), Red Sox (3) and Blue Jays (3); while the Twins Play the Brewers (6), Rockies (3), Angels (2), Texas (2), Yankees (1), and Orioles (1). Rate those teams anyway you like, but on paper the Sox get the harder group to play.

Pete_SSAC
03-19-2003, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
The differences -

The Sox play the Cubs 6 times, while the Twins play the Brewers 6 times. Say what you like about the Cubs, but they're better than the Brewers.

The Sox play the Dodgers 3 times, while the Twins play the Rockies 3 times. Again, the Dodgers are better than the Rockies.

The Six "throw in games" to round out the schedule -

Sox - 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. Toronto
Twins - 2 vs. Anaheim, 1 vs. Baltimore, 1 vs. Yankees, 2 vs. Texas.

Other than that, the two schedules are identical. So it's pretty clear that the Sox have the tougher schedule.

*twacks you upsdie the head*

While I admit that this sced. is tough... it's not much...

While the Cubs are tougher than the brewers... they are still the Cubs, and have no offense.

Dodgers are a lot better than the Rockies, I'll give you that.

Boston... Tough... Blue Jays... no
Anaheim - Tough, Baltiore.. no, Yankees tough... Texas... no. So, that's three easy to three hard games for both teams.

SO... overall, the Twins do have a slight edge... but not enough of one to get your panties in a wad about.

- Pete

czalgosz
03-19-2003, 04:58 PM
Originally posted by Pete_SSAC


SO... overall, the Twins do have a slight edge... but not enough of one to get your panties in a wad about.

- Pete

I'd say the edge is quite substantial - two games in the standings would be my conservative guess.

If the division's decided by 13 games like last year, then yeah, no big deal.

If the Sox finish 1 game back of the Twins at season's end, then we'll talk.

Pete_SSAC
03-19-2003, 05:08 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
I'd say the edge is quite substantial - two games in the standings would be my conservative guess.

If the division's decided by 13 games like last year, then yeah, no big deal.

If the Sox finish 1 game back of the Twins at season's end, then we'll talk.

Yes, but if the Sox pull through and win those games but still loose the divison buy one, this situation is moot. We're acting like We'll loose the 9 Games against the Cubs and Dodgers, while Twins will win theirs against the Brewers and Rocks.

- Pete

PaleHoseGeorge
03-19-2003, 05:13 PM
Not to debate whether the Twins have an easier schedule than the Sox, but this raises a very large problem I have with how Selig has baseball's divisions and schedules arranged.

First, division rivals play 162 games. Given how long the season is, it is absolutely outrageous that these teams don't play IDENTICAL schedules. Sure, if this was the NFL and each team only played 16 regular season games, I could see the need for differences within a division. But damned, 162 games is an awfully long schedule to still leave teams with potentially different records simply because of differences in the opponents each team played.

Even more outrageous is how MLB picks its wild-card team. As bad as the difference between the Twins and White Sox might seem, imagine the ridiculous difference between two second-place teams vying for the wild-card spot! Comparing their W-L records is virtually worthless.

Selig needs to pay more respect to the validity of the results from a regular season schedule that stretches across 162 games. Either award playoff spots on similar 162 game schedules, or breakdown the schedule into something that permits the best teams to advance into the playoffs based on merit and not simple luck.

TheBigHurt
03-19-2003, 05:14 PM
the Sox schedule is not something to worry or complain about not when you have kc, det, and cle in the divison

i mean come on now

czalgosz
03-19-2003, 05:16 PM
Originally posted by Pete_SSAC
Yes, but if the Sox pull through and win those games but still loose the divison buy one, this situation is moot. We're acting like We'll loose the 9 Games against the Cubs and Dodgers, while Twins will win theirs against the Brewers and Rocks.

- Pete

But if the Twins go 7-2 against the Brewers and Rockies, while the Sox go 5-4 against the Cubs and Dodgers...

The point is that the Twins have an unfair advantage. If they fritter it away, or if the Sox overcome it, then great, but that doesn't make the advantage less real. God, I hate interleague play.

doublem23
03-19-2003, 06:04 PM
Originally posted by TheBigHurt
the Sox schedule is not something to worry or complain about not when you have kc, det, and cle in the divison

i mean come on now

The Twins get to play them, too, ya'know.

Lip Man 1
03-19-2003, 06:32 PM
I agree on this one, the Sox got shafted. The other thing you have to look for is WHEN teams are playing other teams and what overall is the road trip like.

For example the Sox have a road trip in July that I haven't seen since the 50's or early 60's.

Two WEEKS on the road including stops in Arizona and L.A. I think it's a 13 game road trip. The most road games I can recall a team playing in the last 20 years is 10 or 11 if a make up game is slated.

Also look at the number of home games in April / May when the weather is miserable and school isn't even out.

Finally the Sox aren't home for ANY of the three Summer holidays and I can't remember if that's ever happened before.

Lip

doublem23
03-19-2003, 06:38 PM
They had a 12-game road trip in 2001 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2001_sched.shtml), from May 15-May 27.

And let's not forget last year's 13 straight road games (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2002_sched.shtml) from June 14 to June 27. Though, I guess 3 of them being at the Cubs isn't quite the same... Think about the principle!

Lip Man 1
03-19-2003, 06:41 PM
Was it two weeks long?

Lip

doublem23
03-19-2003, 06:44 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Was it two weeks long?

Lip

With the extra travel day, yes.

czalgosz
03-19-2003, 07:04 PM
Another gripe with the schedule-maker...

When's the last time Sox opened the season at home? I know the argument about Chicago being cold, but the Cubs do it seemingly every other year, and I've seen season openers in Cleveland, Detroit, New York, Boston, the list goes on.

I don't even live in Chicago anymore, but I think it would be nice to open the season at Comiskey once in a while.

PaleHoseGeorge
03-19-2003, 07:08 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
Another gripe with the schedule-maker...

When's the last time Sox opened the season at home? I know the argument about Chicago being cold, but the Cubs do it seemingly every other year, and I've seen season openers in Cleveland, Detroit, New York, Boston, the list goes on.

I don't even live in Chicago anymore, but I think it would be nice to open the season at Comiskey once in a while.

I heard Jerry likes having more home dates when the weather warms up. It had something to do with "the bottom line."

:gulp:

doublem23
03-19-2003, 08:14 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz

I don't even live in Chicago anymore, but I think it would be nice to open the season at Comiskey once in a while.

Actually, a fun little bit of trivia, now that the stadium has been renamed, the White Sox never opened the season at "New Comiskey Park". The last time they started the season at home was in 1990, Old Comiskey's final year.

Crazy ****.

T Dog
03-19-2003, 08:59 PM
Even without the interleague play, the Sox would have the more difficult schedule, based upon last year's records. The games between the Sox and Twins would factor out to being easier for the Twins.

The interleague games favor the Twins on paper because the Brewers are weaker than the Cubs, although the Brewers beat the Cubs most of the time last year. The fact that the home-and-home interleague games are played against rivals is supposed to mitigate the difference. The rivalry factor, which may have something to do with the Brewers' success against the Cubs, suggests the Brewers should play better against the Twins than they do against the Astros. I don't recall how the games played out last year, but the Cubs and Sox usually play their series close even when one team is appreciably better than the other.

The real problem with teams having different schedules shouldn't come in the small differences within divisions, but in the race for the wild card. Teams in the East and West should be complaining about the easy schedule for the teams in the Central. Strangely, though, teams in the East and West have always been able to overcome the handicap of more difficult schedules.

ma-gaga
03-20-2003, 09:03 AM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Not to debate whether the Twins have an easier schedule than the Sox, but this raises a very large problem I have with how Selig has baseball's divisions and schedules arranged.


Hey, it could be worse, it's not like Selig owns two teams. I mean he's got to be the most unbiased commissioner the league has ever known.

:)

Lip Man 1
03-20-2003, 09:25 AM
That's true the Sox do not open at home on request from Sox management. They feel it's a wasted date because having a home stand in early April means a big crowd on opening day then 2,000 the rest of the homestand.

Unlike Cub fans, Sox fans know when to come in out of the rain...or snow!

Lip

JUGGERNAUT
03-20-2003, 01:00 PM
Certainly who you play is a factor in strength of schedule, but let's not forget that baseball more so than any other sport is front-loaded in that those who have the lead going into the AS break usually win the division.
With that in mind, when you play certain teams & road trips plays a factor as well.

Head to head is a must win. From a psyche factor alone the SOX must win the head to head.

So let's compare the schedules & make predictions:

Apr: adv SOX.
SOX:
@ KC 3, DT 3, @ CL 3, @ DT 3, KC 3, CL 4, @ BA 3, MN 3, OK 3
MIN:
@ DT 3, TO 3, @ NY 3, @ TO 3, DT 3, NY 4, @ KC 3, @ SOX 3, TB 3
pred: SOX +5

May: adv MIN.
SOX: SE 3, @ OK 3, @ SE 3, BA 3, @ MN 3, TO 3, DT 3
MIN: @ BO 3, @ TB 3, BO 3, KC 4, SOX 3, @ OK 3, @ SE 3
pred: SOX +2 (lead shrinks)

Jun: adv MIN.
SOX: @ TO 4, @ CL 4, @ AZ 3, @ LAD 3, SF 3, SD 3, BOS 4, @ cub 3, @ MN 3, cub 3, MN 3
MIN: OK 2, SE 4, @ SF 3, @ SD 3, CO 3, AZ 3, @ KC 3, @ ML 3, SOX 3, ML 3, @ SOX 3
pred: MIN +5 (lead change)

prAS-Jul: adv SOX.
SOX: @ TB 3, @ DT 3, @ CL 3
MIN: CL 4, @ TX 3, @ AN 3
pred: MIN +3

poAS-Jul: adv SOX.
SOX: DT 4, CL 2, @ TO 2, TB 3, @ KC 3
MIN: OK 4, SE 2, KC 2, @ CL 3, BA 3
pred: MIN +1

Aug: adv MIN.
SOX: @ SE 3, KC 3, OK 3, @ AN 4, @ TX 3, AN 3, TX 4, @ NY 3, @ DT 3
MIN: DT 3, @ BA 4, @ DT 3, CL 4, @ KC 3, @ CL 2, KC 4, @ AN 3, @ TX 3
pred: MIN +7

Sep: adv SOX.
SOX: BO 2, CL 4, MN 4, @ BO 3, @ MN 3, KC 3, NY 3, @ KC 4
MIN: AN 3, TX 3, @ SOX 4, @ CL 4, SOX 3, DT 3, CL 2, @ DT 4
pred: MIN +6

This doesn't mean MIN will win the div but it does mean that the SOX will need to sweep more & win a few tough series to make up for the tougher schedule.

gosox41
03-20-2003, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Not to debate whether the Twins have an easier schedule than the Sox, but this raises a very large problem I have with how Selig has baseball's divisions and schedules arranged.

First, division rivals play 162 games. Given how long the season is, it is absolutely outrageous that these teams don't play IDENTICAL schedules. Sure, if this was the NFL and each team only played 16 regular season games, I could see the need for differences within a division. But damned, 162 games is an awfully long schedule to still leave teams with potentially different records simply because of differences in the opponents each team played.

Even more outrageous is how MLB picks its wild-card team. As bad as the difference between the Twins and White Sox might seem, imagine the ridiculous difference between two second-place teams vying for the wild-card spot! Comparing their W-L records is virtually worthless.



Selig needs to pay more respect to the validity of the results from a regular season schedule that stretches across 162 games. Either award playoff spots on similar 162 game schedules, or breakdown the schedule into something that permits the best teams to advance into the playoffs based on merit and not simple luck.


Only Selig would be dumb enough to create a wild card and then also create unbalanced schedules so the fourth best team in the league doesn't necessarily make the playoffs


Bob

Iwritecode
03-20-2003, 01:43 PM
Originally posted by espnjohn1
Head to head is a must win. From a psyche factor alone the SOX must win the head to head.

Even without the psychological factor, I've always said that the H2H record between the Sox and Twins have made all the difference in the world the past 2 years. Especially in 2001 where, IIRC, if the Sox would have had even a .500 record against the Twins, they could have had the division...

ode to veeck
03-21-2003, 03:26 PM
While the Cubs are tougher than the brewers... they are still the Cubs, and have no offense

if we can't clean out the scrubbies, we have no business being worried about winning da division (witness '01, '02 where we were out of the race before the swelling on Kenny's pulled hampstring went down, but still whupped on baby bear meat)

ChiSox14305635
03-22-2003, 09:05 AM
Let them give the Twinkies an easier schedule. We'll win it the hard way! Quoting the great poet, Beavis: "The streets will flow with the blood of the non-believers!". :D:

OKCSoxFan
03-22-2003, 09:31 AM
The Twins and Sox have to play each other. On paper, using records from last year, the Sox have a tougher opponent in Minnesota than they have against the Sox. Probably adds to the formula as well.

TheBigHurt
03-22-2003, 10:12 AM
Originally posted by doublem23
The Twins get to play them, too, ya'know.

I know of course and becuase of that,I would guess the Twinkees are going to win the Wild Card becuase of the div. schedule

BE GOOD