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LuvSox
03-09-2003, 05:45 PM
From what I've heard, Mark turned down $27 million over 5 years, a deal that would have nixed any arbitration in the near future. He renewed for $450,000. Does he think he can get more with arbitration or does he want to jump on a Greyhound bus headed for St. Louis asap?

doublem23
03-09-2003, 05:47 PM
$27 million over 5 years is only $5.4 million per year. I can't believe Williams would even offer him that.

jeremyb1
03-09-2003, 06:03 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
$27 million over 5 years is only $5.4 million per year. I can't believe Williams would even offer him that.

i don't that's so bad. that's more per year than just about any other pitcher his age has gotten in a long term deal. he just has to forfeit one year of free agency.

the way these deals work is that if you're a young pitcher like buehrle and the club owns your rights anyways then if you accept a long term deal you have to give up some money in turn for the security the team is giving you.

buehrle has indicated security isn't very valuable to him right now. he feels healthy so he's not concerned that he'll have a subpar season or become injured and then make far less in arbitration than he could get through a long term deal.

czalgosz
03-09-2003, 06:09 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
$27 million over 5 years is only $5.4 million per year. I can't believe Williams would even offer him that.

That's actually pretty good in today's market. I'm kind of surprised he turned it down. A five year deal is a rarity these days. I understand he'd probably make more in arbitration, but that's assuming he keeps up the level of play he's had over the past couple of years, and he stays healthy.

doublem23
03-09-2003, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
That's actually pretty good in today's market. I'm kind of surprised he turned it down. A five year deal is a rarity these days. I understand he'd probably make more in arbitration, but that's assuming he keeps up the level of play he's had over the past couple of years, and he stays healthy.

That's the risk he's taking, I guess.

Lip Man 1
03-09-2003, 06:52 PM
if he can average 18-20 wins per season over the next three years he'll be getting Maddux money.

That 5+ million per season is chump change for elite pitchers today.

Lip

Hangar18
03-10-2003, 09:38 AM
Like I said, he wants to break the bank. Players like him, and Mark Prior, and Bobby Hill (though in MB's defense he wants to be paid now that hes gone out and proven himself) want to get Paid.
I can see MB wearing gold jewelry, him and Prior Golfing out in Lemont together.....

Juan Pizarro
03-10-2003, 10:34 AM
The thing is, if they take the cash now, if you prorate the deal they make out pretty well.

You pass up some $5 mil paydays to take $415,000, and in those later years you have to make $10 mil to get where you'd be anyway. And to do that, you have to be dominating and healthy; it's a heck of a dice roll.
You wonder if some of the agents have ever talen Econ 51 and heard of "opportunity cost."

gosox41
03-10-2003, 11:20 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
if he can average 18-20 wins per season over the next three years he'll be getting Maddux money.

That 5+ million per season is chump change for elite pitchers today.

Lip

And if he blows his elbow out season, we can possibly see him in 10 years working at a car wash. Of course signing a long term conract that pays $27 mill. will at least take care of him having to actually "work" again for a living.

I tried looking for the numbers again but couldn't find them. Does anyone have the numbers on pitchers who pitch X amt. of innings by the age of 25 that have career threatening injuries?

Bob

Lip Man 1
03-10-2003, 11:52 AM
Two things I noticed about the break down of the offer to Buehrle that was in all the Chicago papers today.

First was that the Sox would only be obligated to pay him about 6.5 million in, I think, the year before his option season. (2005?). Again if he continues to pitch like he has been that is small potatoes compared to what he could be getting.

Second is that the Sox wanted to deal to go one year longer then Buehrle's free agent year. In other words he'd have to give up one year of possible free agency.

The stories also said these two items (lenght and incentives) were the sticking points in the Buehrle camp.

As I see this, the Sox wanted him to take a longer deal with less money just so he could have some "security" (Remember reading how Hawn talked about "cost certaintly" for the Sox (LOL))

Overall I can't say I blame Mark for this. He's obviously a guy who feels that he should be paid what he's worth in the market and has the self confidence to think that he'll be able to break the bank (with the Cardinals) in four years.

The Sox only seemed to be concerned with "cost certaintly" and keeping their precious "salary structure."

Lip

czalgosz
03-10-2003, 11:59 AM
The thing about this was, like someone else said, I thought the Sox were trying to screw Buehrle by low-balling him until he reached arbitration. Offering him that much for a five-year deal means that the Sox are willing to take on considerable risk (more than the A's, for instance, are willing to take on any of their three young arms) to keep him in uniform.

If Buehrle feels he can keep up his current level of performance and win big in arbitration, more power to him. But he certainly can't say that the team didn't try to take care of him now.

TimChamp
03-10-2003, 12:50 PM
Like I said in the other thread, I have no respect for Buerhle now, that just tells you that he wants to break the bank...this is fair market value for a guy like him...granted if he continues pitching the way he does, he can get Maddux money, that's not the point...He clearly said that it was "NOT about the money," it was about getting his "fair market value," and this is definitely more than HIS fair market value compared to what the awesome A's pitchers are accepting... :angry:


Champ out to get some lunch, all this anger has gotten him hungry...

joecrede
03-10-2003, 01:51 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
if he can average 18-20 wins per season over the next three years he'll be getting Maddux money

But what will he earn in those three years? $450k this year, say $5.5M as a first-year arbitration case, say $7.5M as a second-year arbitration case. A total of $13.45M. He was guaranteed $11.5M for that same period whether he throws a pitch or not. Also, Buehrle would only be 28 and free to pursue free-agency after the 5-year deal ends.

This was a fair offer, I hope Buehrle doesn't regret turning it down.

joecrede
03-10-2003, 02:00 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
The Sox only seemed to be concerned with "cost certaintly" and keeping their precious "salary structure."

They are taking a risk on him being healthy, but wouldn't it be silly on their part, or any businesses not to be concerned with these things?

gosox41
03-10-2003, 05:25 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Two things I noticed about the break down of the offer to Buehrle that was in all the Chicago papers today.

First was that the Sox would only be obligated to pay him about 6.5 million in, I think, the year before his option season. (2005?). Again if he continues to pitch like he has been that is small potatoes compared to what he could be getting.

Second is that the Sox wanted to deal to go one year longer then Buehrle's free agent year. In other words he'd have to give up one year of possible free agency.

The stories also said these two items (lenght and incentives) were the sticking points in the Buehrle camp.

As I see this, the Sox wanted him to take a longer deal with less money just so he could have some "security" (Remember reading how Hawn talked about "cost certaintly" for the Sox (LOL))

Overall I can't say I blame Mark for this. He's obviously a guy who feels that he should be paid what he's worth in the market and has the self confidence to think that he'll be able to break the bank (with the Cardinals) in four years.

The Sox only seemed to be concerned with "cost certaintly" and keeping their precious "salary structure."

Lip


The SOx had offered a slightly better deal over 3 years then the one CC Sabbathia got. He could have signed it and not given up his free agency. I don't blame the Sox for asking Buehrle to give up something in order to receive almost $30 mill.

More power to Mark if he stays healthy and cashes in. It probably means the Sox are doing all right. Of course a lot can change between today and 3 years from now. One of the things that can't is guaranteed money. Mark's a gambler. Hopefully it pays off for him.

Bob

voodoochile
03-10-2003, 05:34 PM
I am sure that Konerko and Magglio's contracts at similar points in their careers influenced the decision also. If Mark has another good year, the Sox will have to up the offer this summer/off-season or risk having his arbitration hearings break the bank for them.

If MB does have the seasons we all hope for, he will probably get at least $25M for his three arbitration years alone and the Sox will be forced to up the dollar amount/year AND shorten the length of the contract or risk getting eaten alive in those hearings.

When did Magglio sign his arbitration eligible years extension, during or after the year immediately preceding his first year of arbitration eligibility?

czalgosz
03-10-2003, 05:38 PM
IIRC, Ordonez signed during his last season before arb. eligibility.

jeremyb1
03-10-2003, 06:03 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
IIRC, Ordonez signed during his last season before arb. eligibility.

actually maggs signed the season after his first year of arbitration elligibility according to one of the papers today. he avoided going to arbitration and signed for 3.5 million and then they worked out the three year deal during the season.

jeremyb1
03-10-2003, 06:11 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Two things I noticed about the break down of the offer to Buehrle that was in all the Chicago papers today.

First was that the Sox would only be obligated to pay him about 6.5 million in, I think, the year before his option season. (2005?). Again if he continues to pitch like he has been that is small potatoes compared to what he could be getting.

Second is that the Sox wanted to deal to go one year longer then Buehrle's free agent year. In other words he'd have to give up one year of possible free agency.

The stories also said these two items (lenght and incentives) were the sticking points in the Buehrle camp.

As I see this, the Sox wanted him to take a longer deal with less money just so he could have some "security" (Remember reading how Hawn talked about "cost certaintly" for the Sox (LOL))

Overall I can't say I blame Mark for this. He's obviously a guy who feels that he should be paid what he's worth in the market and has the self confidence to think that he'll be able to break the bank (with the Cardinals) in four years.

The Sox only seemed to be concerned with "cost certaintly" and keeping their precious "salary structure."

the thing is that buehrle continuing to perform at this level for each of the next four seasons is a huge if. you have to sacrifice some money for "cost certainty" in the long run. the sox are right. look at all the other young pitchers in the game, they have deals on par with what we offered buehrle. they gave up a lot of money because security is very important to most ball players.

look at all the young pitchers that have dealt with injuries. guys matt moris and kris benson were huge up and comming pitchers and then just like that they went down with tommy john. what if that were to happen to buehrle with two years left with the sox? if we were smart, we'd non-tender him and then he'd have to sign a minor league deal with someone. he'd be losing around 8 or 10 million if that were to occur. he's taking a huge roll of the dice here, if he wins his payoff is that he gets more money but don't think that he shouldn't settle for anything less than what he'll make in arbitration because there is great value to security.

Lip Man 1
03-10-2003, 08:11 PM
Just wondering...

What happens if over the next two years Buehrle averages 18 wins?

I think the arbitration numbers mentioned are LOW. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Buehrle got 9-10 million for one year with arbitration.

Perhaps that's why he's willing to take the risk. If he cashes in just ONE TIME. He can invest that money and relax for the rest of his life.

It would be interesting to see the Sox reaction when (if) he got that kind of money. They'd have to unload two or three players just to absorbe the hit since they seem to be very unwilling to raise their salary level.

Note to Jeremy: That's the risk you run if you want to win. In today's game with pitching so precious either you play the game the way most of the other teams do (i.e. big salaries, guaranteed with long term deals for pitchers) or you lose. The choice is yours (i.e. the Sox)

Lip

jeremyb1
03-11-2003, 12:56 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Just wondering...

What happens if over the next two years Buehrle averages 18 wins?

I think the arbitration numbers mentioned are LOW. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Buehrle got 9-10 million for one year with arbitration.

Perhaps that's why he's willing to take the risk. If he cashes in just ONE TIME. He can invest that money and relax for the rest of his life.

It would be interesting to see the Sox reaction when (if) he got that kind of money. They'd have to unload two or three players just to absorbe the hit since they seem to be very unwilling to raise their salary level.

Note to Jeremy: That's the risk you run if you want to win. In today's game with pitching so precious either you play the game the way most of the other teams do (i.e. big salaries, guaranteed with long term deals for pitchers) or you lose. The choice is yours (i.e. the Sox)

Lip

i disagree. long term contracts for pitchers can just as easily help you lose a lot of games. look at our deal for navarro or the long term deals alvarez and fernandez received after they left. if you give a pitcher a long term deal and then he loses it that money can really come back to haunt you.

as far as the arbitration figures, as far as i know before maddux just receieved his deal, the highest figure ever received by a player in arbitration was ten million by mariano rivera and i believe that was in his last season under arbitration. buehrle could get 9 or 10 million for the '06 season IF he keeps up his current performance for the next three seasons. i don't see him getting that much money for '04 or '05 though especially with the way the market has been headed lately.

my5thbench
03-11-2003, 08:58 AM
Mark has been given some very poor advice...the risk is too
great...he should have signed the deal, that money can
never be gotten back. Had he signed & pitched lights out
for five years he could sign for megabucks next time.

All other options have a down side for Mark & he doesn't
get 5 million plus this year, 27 million guaranteed means
security for he & his family for life

poor decision Mark, I wish you luck