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Dadawg_77
02-20-2003, 09:18 PM
Just got my copy if you have seen the book, what do you think of the PECOTA system? Any other thoughts?

I haven't read throughly yet but feel you get more out of a book (esp one like this one) if you discuss it with people. I'll let you know more as I read it.

MarkEdward
02-20-2003, 11:15 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Just got my copy if you have seen the book, what do you think of the PECOTA system? Any other thoughts?

I haven't read throughly yet but feel you get more out of a book (esp one like this one) if you discuss it with people. I'll let you know more as I read it.

I agree. I'm going to get into it after I'm finished with a book for school (Wuthering Heights, zzzzzzzzzz), which should probably be this weekend.

kermittheefrog
02-21-2003, 02:53 AM
I got the book a couple days ago. You should IM me to talk about it sometime, easier than a thread. I like the Pecota system a lot, it seems like the logic is very much on the right track. Off the top of my head I'd say most of the projections look a little low, possibly because they haven't tweaked the weighted averages enough? I think that's better than last year when it seemed like they projected every player to impove by 10 points of EqA. It seems like there are more players in this book but shorter comments. I'd really like some more info on Pecota, especially what he's found about the meaning of specific statistics with regard to projection. I felt like someone really needed to do a study of how specific statistics effect production. And I still feel like I'm not nearly well versed in statistics to do my own research. *sigh*

I was really surprised by them taking EqA out of the book. It's really thrown me off because it's taken a good several years of reading BP to get a really good idea of how to think in terms of EqA. Now I have to think in terms of MLV. While I like the idea of MLV it's a beotch to have to adjust the way I think about the players. It also seems like they've given Derek Zumsteg more room to be non-PC with his humor. I like that. Check out entries for Delvin James and Esteban Loaiza if you're wondering what I'm talking about. It's really the baseball season when the new BP is available. I'm so freakin' excited.

Bmr31
02-21-2003, 04:18 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
I got the book a couple days ago. You should IM me to talk about it sometime, easier than a thread. I like the Pecota system a lot, it seems like the logic is very much on the right track. Off the top of my head I'd say most of the projections look a little low, possibly because they haven't tweaked the weighted averages enough? I think that's better than last year when it seemed like they projected every player to impove by 10 points of EqA. It seems like there are more players in this book but shorter comments. I'd really like some more info on Pecota, especially what he's found about the meaning of specific statistics with regard to projection. I felt like someone really needed to do a study of how specific statistics effect production. And I still feel like I'm not nearly well versed in statistics to do my own research. *sigh*

I was really surprised by them taking EqA out of the book. It's really thrown me off because it's taken a good several years of reading BP to get a really good idea of how to think in terms of EqA. Now I have to think in terms of MLV. While I like the idea of MLV it's a beotch to have to adjust the way I think about the players. It also seems like they've given Derek Zumsteg more room to be non-PC with his humor. I like that. Check out entries for Delvin James and Esteban Loaiza if you're wondering what I'm talking about. It's really the baseball season when the new BP is available. I'm so freakin' excited.

Hey I am going to add my two cents here. The old me probably would make some arrogant comment. Kermie, I am sure others have thought this, and im not TOO old, lol, so i will ask. Dont ya think all these new age formulas complicate the fans thinking and get in the way of the true meaning of baseball, which is to be a sport? Just curious man, and this is coming from a guy who truly loves numbers.

kermittheefrog
02-21-2003, 04:34 AM
Originally posted by Bmr31
Hey I am going to add my two cents here. The old me probably would make some arrogant comment. Kermie, I am sure others have thought this, and im not TOO old, lol, so i will ask. Dont ya think all these new age formulas complicate the fans thinking and get in the way of the true meaning of baseball, which is to be a sport? Just curious man, and this is coming from a guy who truly loves numbers.


Well for me it helps me understand the game more. It makes me think like a GM and feel informed. I really want to feel like I know what I'm doing or talking about with anything. Believe it or not, Baseball Prospectus helped me know whats important when I stepped onto the frield. And now I don't really play baseball anymore but I play ultimate frisbee and I think it's helpful to know the physics of how a frisbee flies and things like that. For me the more knowledge I have access to the better the sport gets.

Bmr31
02-21-2003, 04:37 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Well for me it helps me understand the game more. It makes me think like a GM and feel informed. I really want to feel like I know what I'm doing or talking about with anything. Believe it or not, Baseball Prospectus helped me know whats important when I stepped onto the frield. And now I don't really play baseball anymore but I play ultimate frisbee and I think it's helpful to know the physics of how a frisbee flies and things like that. For me the more knowledge I have access to the better the sport gets.

Okay i understand that so let me ask this another way. Do you truly have FUN when you are watching baseball now? It would seem you may be doing too much analyzing and formulating. Just a question...cuz actually i have noticed my fantasy baseball interest causes me to enjoy games a little less. It almost makes it seem like work, ya know?

kermittheefrog
02-21-2003, 05:20 AM
Originally posted by Bmr31
Okay i understand that so let me ask this another way. Do you truly have FUN when you are watching baseball now? It would seem you may be doing too much analyzing and formulating. Just a question...cuz actually i have noticed my fantasy baseball interest causes me to enjoy games a little less. It almost makes it seem like work, ya know?

I love to watch baseball. Sometimes I do a lot of analyzing while I'm watching, sometimes I just sit back and relax. It's fun to do both, depends on the mood I'm in. Even the analysis doesn't feel like work to me. I can paruse stats and boxscores for hours. I'm even excited about plugging numbers into spread sheets when I'm studying righthanded hitters who have made plate discipline jumps so that I have a better idea of what to expect from Carlos Lee next season. I really love everything about baseball except the jerks that write for newspapers and don't know a thing about the game.

jeremyb1
02-21-2003, 01:48 PM
i have to pick this up. is it available in book stores now?

kermittheefrog
02-21-2003, 04:02 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
i have to pick this up. is it available in book stores now?

It has shipped, just depends on how long it takes to get off trucks and onto the shelves. I got it via a bookstore last year and they annoyed the crap out of me by keeping it in a box with other new books for a good week.

btw- My blog has been updated.

kevingrt
02-21-2003, 05:09 PM
Hoping to get mine soon, can't wait... Getting a lot of baseball books this year!

czalgosz
02-21-2003, 05:44 PM
I picked it up today at my local bookstore. Unfortunately, the book went to press just as the Colon trade happened, so the White Sox section is a lot of KW bashing (not that he doesn't deserve it).

There's a lot of good stuff in there, but take it with a grain of salt. Those guys tend to fall in love with certain GMs and teams and take great joy in bashing others. For a good example, they spent a ton of time praising Billy Koch when Billy Beane traded FOR him, but when he traded him away, they ripped on Koch. Compare the entry on Koch for the 2002 edition as compared to the 2003 edition, and you'll see what I mean.

Don't get me wrong, I love BP, but I definitely don't agree with everything they say.

I love how on the back, it says - "Predicted that the days of Indian dominance in the AL central were over, and that the A's would still win without Jason Giambi." Well, duh.

kermittheefrog
02-21-2003, 07:51 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
I picked it up today at my local bookstore. Unfortunately, the book went to press just as the Colon trade happened, so the White Sox section is a lot of KW bashing (not that he doesn't deserve it).

There's a lot of good stuff in there, but take it with a grain of salt. Those guys tend to fall in love with certain GMs and teams and take great joy in bashing others. For a good example, they spent a ton of time praising Billy Koch when Billy Beane traded FOR him, but when he traded him away, they ripped on Koch. Compare the entry on Koch for the 2002 edition as compared to the 2003 edition, and you'll see what I mean.

Don't get me wrong, I love BP, but I definitely don't agree with everything they say.

I love how on the back, it says - "Predicted that the days of Indian dominance in the AL central were over, and that the A's would still win without Jason Giambi." Well, duh.

In defense of BP it is like 15 guys or something. The same guy doesn't write about the same team every year and a lot of the time they are going to disagree. It would help a bit if they gave credit for who wrote which chapters.

jeremyb1
02-22-2003, 09:42 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
In defense of BP it is like 15 guys or something. The same guy doesn't write about the same team every year and a lot of the time they are going to disagree. It would help a bit if they gave credit for who wrote which chapters.

finally picked this up today. good reading so far.