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czalgosz
02-19-2003, 11:08 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20030219mailbag.shtml

Isn't that Kermit? And in any case, this should answer that thread about Rauch's shoulder...

Randar68
02-19-2003, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by czalgosz
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20030219mailbag.shtml

Isn't that Kermit? And in any case, this should answer that thread about Rauch's shoulder...

This is Kermit, and this is the same source he has cited repeatedly. As Vic has shown, there are different types of SLAP lesions and it may be inaccurate to label all SLAP lesions as "tears". Growths, hooks, and frays are not the same as tears...

He did have labrum problems, SLAP lesion is consistent with everything we've heard. As Vic said, there are 4 types of these lesions with varying degrees of severity. Jon didn't have the worst kind of these ( type IV, IIRC) ...


Doesn't really matter, he's 100% now...

Juan Pizarro
02-19-2003, 12:29 PM
"he's 100 percent now..."

We all hope so, but don't say it! No jix, no jinx, no jinx....

czalgosz
02-19-2003, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by Juan Pizarro
"he's 100 percent now..."

We all hope so, but don't say it! No jix, no jinx, no jinx....

I hate to say it, but guys who get these kind of injuries tend to get hurt again and again and again. (Witness Lorenzo Barcelo). Most of the time, it's a mechanics problem that is very difficult to fix. Rauch might well be the exception to the rule, but he's going to be an injury risk for some time to come.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assumed that Esteban Loaiza was the frontrunner for the 5th starter's job anyway. Or is Loaiza just there for a look-see, and Rauch is pretty much guaranteed the job?

jeremyb1
02-19-2003, 12:52 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
I hate to say it, but guys who get these kind of injuries tend to get hurt again and again and again. (Witness Lorenzo Barcelo). Most of the time, it's a mechanics problem that is very difficult to fix. Rauch might well be the exception to the rule, but he's going to be an injury risk for some time to come.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assumed that Esteban Loaiza was the frontrunner for the 5th starter's job anyway. Or is Loaiza just there for a look-see, and Rauch is pretty much guaranteed the job?

i won't say it isn't possible that rauch's mechanics contributed to his injury, but the most glaring cause of his injury in '00 is that he pitched a ton for a 23 year old. rauch pitched at three different levels in the minors and then went on to pitch in the olympics. his workload warranted injury in my opinion.

Randar68
02-19-2003, 06:05 PM
Originally posted by czalgosz
I hate to say it, but guys who get these kind of injuries tend to get hurt again and again and again. (Witness Lorenzo Barcelo). Most of the time, it's a mechanics problem that is very difficult to fix. Rauch might well be the exception to the rule, but he's going to be an injury risk for some time to come.

The Barcelo injury is the worst analogy to an injury I have ever seen. They are both right-handed pitchers, and the similarity ends there. Every scout who has ever seen Rauch pitch marvels over his mechanics and control so rare for a big pitcher. He always throws under control and has a good base. Barcelo was a chucker who was an upper-body thrower. In addition, he had Tommy John surgery, came back quickly, which likely resulted in his shoulder injuries (which were far more severe than Jon's).

Is Rauch have a likelihood for further injury any higher than the average pitcher today in the majors? I highly doubt it. I would guess 50% or more of pitchers today have elbow or shoulder surgery before the age of 26. I obviously have no statistical proof of this as it would be a huge study...


Originally posted by czalgosz
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assumed that Esteban Loaiza was the frontrunner for the 5th starter's job anyway. Or is Loaiza just there for a look-see, and Rauch is pretty much guaranteed the job?

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. In all the Jerry talking, he hasn't really said anything about Heredia or Loaiza... That being said, I expect a pretty even competition given Rauch's results his last 3 starts. It might be better that Loaiza win it for the first month or so if the #5 guy will only pitch every 10 days or so...

czalgosz
02-19-2003, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
The Barcelo injury is the worst analogy to an injury I have ever seen. They are both right-handed pitchers, and the similarity ends there. Every scout who has ever seen Rauch pitch marvels over his mechanics and control so rare for a big pitcher. He always throws under control and has a good base. Barcelo was a chucker who was an upper-body thrower. In addition, he had Tommy John surgery, came back quickly, which likely resulted in his shoulder injuries (which were far more severe than Jon's).

Is Rauch have a likelihood for further injury any higher than the average pitcher today in the majors? I highly doubt it. I would guess 50% or more of pitchers today have elbow or shoulder surgery before the age of 26. I obviously have no statistical proof of this as it would be a huge study...

50% would be a lot. Certainly in the White Sox organization it seems to be that much...

But as for Rauch's specific case, I don't claim to be a doctor, and you seem to have a better grasp of the details on Rauch's shoulder than I do. I was just going off of past evidence - pitchers who miss significant time to injury when they're young tend to have injury problems their entire career.

Yes, Lorenzo Barcelo is an extreme case.

Yes, there are numerous exceptions to this rule.

But it's certainly enough to give one pause. The organization should treat Rauch as a question mark for at least the next couple of seasons, until he proves that he can stay healthy for a long time.

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. In all the Jerry talking, he hasn't really said anything about Heredia or Loaiza... That being said, I expect a pretty even competition given Rauch's results his last 3 starts. It might be better that Loaiza win it for the first month or so if the #5 guy will only pitch every 10 days or so...

I wouldn't mind seeing Loaiza as the 5th starter - Heredia is a joke. He's probably not good enough to be effective in Charlotte.