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Daver
01-10-2003, 07:50 PM
From Will Carroll at BP.

Under the Knife. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20030110utk.shtml)

jeremyb1
01-10-2003, 11:30 PM
Originally posted by daver
From Will Carroll at BP.

Under the Knife. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20030110utk.shtml)

i've been saying all along that colon is quite far from a sure thing. some seem to think that if we acquire him we can count on 20 wins and an era near 3. don't count on it. as i've mentioned numerous times his lowest era before last season was 3.7 and his strikeout total fell last season. it did seem like the indians had been overworking him quite a bit in the past. i think the tribe definately comes out as the winner when all is said and done. they got some outstanding prospects for colon when his value was as high as it had been in his entire career and they no longer had any great use for him as he approached 30 and his deal was running out.

as for the health questions about penny, i can't understand a lot of those rumors about his shoulder. gammons quoted him in the last few days as saying he hasn't had an era in over a year. i fail to see why he'd have any incentive to down play any health concerns. look at what happened with sirotka. he certainly wasn't pleased. obviously if there might be a problem with penny's arm, he has more incentive than anyone to get it looked at and operated on (if necessary) as soon as possible.

doublem23
01-11-2003, 01:32 AM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
i've been saying all along that colon is quite far from a sure thing. some seem to think that if we acquire him we can count on 20 wins and an era near 3. don't count on it. as i've mentioned numerous times his lowest era before last season was 3.7 and his strikeout total fell last season. it did seem like the indians had been overworking him quite a bit in the past. i think the tribe definately comes out as the winner when all is said and done. they got some outstanding prospects for colon when his value was as high as it had been in his entire career and they no longer had any great use for him as he approached 30 and his deal was running out.

as for the health questions about penny, i can't understand a lot of those rumors about his shoulder. gammons quoted him in the last few days as saying he hasn't had an era in over a year. i fail to see why he'd have any incentive to down play any health concerns. look at what happened with sirotka. he certainly wasn't pleased. obviously if there might be a problem with penny's arm, he has more incentive than anyone to get it looked at and operated on (if necessary) as soon as possible.

His 162-average (according to www.baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/colonba01.shtml)) is 16-9 and 3.85.

Everything in baseball is a risk. Bringing up Buehrle, a 38th round pick, straight up from AA was a risk. Some work, some don't; the job of a GM is to take smart risks. Colon is a smart risk (for the right price).

jeremyb1
01-11-2003, 02:58 AM
Originally posted by doublem23
His 162-average (according to www.baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/colonba01.shtml)) is 16-9 and 3.85.

Everything in baseball is a risk. Bringing up Buehrle, a 38th round pick, straight up from AA was a risk. Some work, some don't; the job of a GM is to take smart risks. Colon is a smart risk (for the right price).

you're right. the key to what you said, however, is that only "for the right price" is he worth the risk. i think anyone that acquires colon this offseason is going to be trading for a 20-8 pitcher with a 2.93 era and not a 16-9 pitcher with a 3.85 era. there's a huge difference between the two. ones a solid number two starter while the other is one of the best pitchers in the game so the price is going to vary. i feel like it'd be really easy to overpay and nearly impossible to underpay unless the financial aspects of the deal really get in the way. there's no way colon can improve on last year and the odds are pretty good he'll slip at least slightly, so how do you justify paying for a 20 game winner with an era under three if that's what it comes to?

cornball
01-11-2003, 10:40 AM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
you're right. the key to what you said, however, is that only "for the right price" is he worth the risk. i think anyone that acquires colon this offseason is going to be trading for a 20-8 pitcher with a 2.93 era and not a 16-9 pitcher with a 3.85 era. there's a huge difference between the two. ones a solid number two starter while the other is one of the best pitchers in the game so the price is going to vary. i feel like it'd be really easy to overpay and nearly impossible to underpay unless the financial aspects of the deal really get in the way. there's no way colon can improve on last year and the odds are pretty good he'll slip at least slightly, so how do you justify paying for a 20 game winner with an era under three if that's what it comes to?

With the market for Colon limited, I don't think we will over pay. Wait i mean i don't think we should...lol

Yes there is no sure thing, but a 20-8 or 16-9 pitcher is what we need, considering the current roster, Buehrle excluded, and the availablity of this type of pitcher limited in the marketplace.

34 Inch Stick
01-11-2003, 10:47 AM
Here is how I would justify it. The division can be had. If you have a rotation with Colon, Buhrle and then Garland, I think Garland feels no pressure and flourishes this year. That gives you three pitchers who can give you 15+ wins and -3.00 ERA's.

The offense, while inconsistent, is undeniably there. The extra pitching should be enough to put us over the top.

So if you win the division where are you at. You go into the playoffs with those three as your starters. I would feel very comfortable especially in games 1 and 2 against any team but the A's based on pitching matchups.

To me the addition of Colon means a legitimate run at the World Series. I may be deluding myself (especially because a rooke/Alomar catcher and Rowand center field is not a World Series combination), but the Colon deal would change my whole outlook for the team entering the season.

gogosoxgogo
01-11-2003, 10:49 AM
Originally posted by 34 Inch Stick
That gives you three pitchers who can give you 15+ wins and -3.00 ERA's.

I doubt any of the three will have -3.00 ERA's

34 Inch Stick
01-11-2003, 11:01 AM
Sorry, I meant -4.00. However, I would say Buhrle has a shot at -3.00 and Colon did it last year. At the very least Buhrle is a lock for the low 3's and Colon will probably be in the mid 3's.

cornball
01-11-2003, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by 34 Inch Stick
Here is how I would justify it. The division can be had. If you have a rotation with Colon, Buhrle and then Garland, I think Garland feels no pressure and flourishes this year. That gives you three pitchers who can give you 15+ wins and -3.00 ERA's.

The offense, while inconsistent, is undeniably there. The extra pitching should be enough to put us over the top.

So if you win the division where are you at. You go into the playoffs with those three as your starters. I would feel very comfortable especially in games 1 and 2 against any team but the A's based on pitching matchups.

To me the addition of Colon means a legitimate run at the World Series. I may be deluding myself (especially because a rooke/Alomar catcher and Rowand center field is not a World Series combination), but the Colon deal would change my whole outlook for the team entering the season.

I totally agree!!!! Right now this team doesn't win the division. With Colon, I believe they do.....and I also think as cheap as JR is if he has a chance to win, and the Sox start strong, he will allow moves to be made before the deadline.

However, without a good start, Colon would be traded before the season is over along with others....typical JR. But that is my take.