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kermittheefrog
12-17-2002, 05:52 PM
Ok take a look at the Braves staff, they seem mighty prepared for his exodus. They have four expensive veterans that are guatenteed jobs by their contracts plus Jason Marquis who shouldn't be forced out of the rotation because he's clearly ready. I doubt Boras would really have Maddux accept arbitration, Boras is a shrewd mofo. Boras can already take a look at the writing on the wall and see Maddux won't be signing a long term deal with the Braves.

If Maddux accepted arbitration it would be something like last year with Bonds, as a segway to a longer contract. The Braves don't look to be on that wagon, not saving money for Greg. So what will Maddux do? Rumor has it he wants a five year deal. Boras and Maddux are both smart men who get what they want. I see a holdout coming. It's not something we have seen in baseball but it's clearly a buyer's market and I doubt Boras or Maddux will settle for much less than their demands. The money is clearly somewhere in the baseball pipeline. The new CBA was supposed to make things better by giving small market teams a chance. People familiar with the bsiness side of things shouldn't be surprised salaries are down butu Boras knows the money exists somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if he encourages his client to just sit out rather than accepting a below-market deal like other free agent.

Daver
12-17-2002, 05:59 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
I wouldn't be surprised if he encourages his client to just sit out rather than accepting a below-market deal like other free agent.

He'd be a fool to advise his client to turn down 15 to 20 million dollars,which is what Maddux will recieve in a one year deal from Atlanta just by accepting arbitration.

If he was my agent and told me to sit out I'd fire him on the spot.

jeremyb1
12-17-2002, 06:14 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
I wouldn't be surprised if he encourages his client to just sit out rather than accepting a below-market deal like other free agent.

i'd love to see boras get burned by his stuborness like that but i doubt it will happen. we'll see i guess.

voodoochile
12-17-2002, 06:19 PM
Originally posted by daver
He'd be a fool to advise his client to turn down 15 to 20 million dollars,which is what Maddux will recieve in a one year deal from Atlanta just by accepting arbitration.

If he was my agent and told me to sit out I'd fire him on the spot.

Maybe, but what if Maddux has a mediocre year next year and then only gets offered a 2 year, 15M contract? Boras wants to set Maddux up with his final contract. He'd be better in the long run signing a 5 year $50-60M contract than risking it all on a one year deal this late in his career...

kermittheefrog
12-17-2002, 06:23 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Maybe, but what if Maddux has a mediocre year next year and then only gets offered a 2 year, 15M contract? Boras wants to set Maddux up with his final contract. He'd be better in the long run signing a 5 year $50-60M contract than risking it all on a one year deal this late in his career...

Exactly Voodoo. Maddux will get his money either way and Boras' priority is to make sure it comes in the form of a longterm deal.

Daver
12-17-2002, 06:23 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Maybe, but what if Maddux has a mediocre year next year and then only gets offered a 2 year, 15M contract? Boras wants to set Maddux up with his final contract. He'd be better in the long run signing a 5 year $50-60M contract than risking it all on a one year deal this late in his career...

By accepting arbitration he would only get a one year deal,it would be worth 15 to 20 mil guarnteed,you have to be a fool to turn that down.

kermittheefrog
12-17-2002, 06:24 PM
Originally posted by daver
By accepting arbitration he would only get a one year deal,it would be worth 15 to 20 mil guarnteed,you have to be a fool to turn that down.

Or you have to be a major league ballplayer pretty much guarenteed 12 million or so no matter what you do this season and looking for a longterm commitment from a franchise.

voodoochile
12-17-2002, 06:27 PM
Originally posted by daver
By accepting arbitration he would only get a one year deal,it would be worth 15 to 20 mil guarnteed,you have to be a fool to turn that down.

Not if you can get $50M+ guaranteed by signing a longer term deal elsewhere, which is what Boras believes will happen. Maddux is getting up there and as successful as he has been, he only has a certain number of productive seasons left in him. Boras is not going to risk $20M or so guaranteed by allowing Maddux to take what could be a huge risk.

One pulled muscle and he sits half the season and then his stats don't justify a big contract the following season and the rumor mill starts to churn ("Maddux is done"). All of a sudden the offers dry up and he is stuck with end-of-career contracts which are NEVER as lucrative as when you are still perceived to be at the top of your game.

I agree that in most cases, 1 year, $15-20M is worth taking, but given Maddux's age, I doubt Boras wants to settle for it...

Daver
12-17-2002, 06:31 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Not if you can get $50M+ guaranteed by signing a longer term deal elsewhere, which is what Boras believes will happen. Maddux is getting up there and as successful as he has been, he only has a certain number of productive seasons left in him. Boras is not going to risk $20M or so guaranteed by allowing Maddux to take what could be a huge risk.

One pulled muscle and he sits half the season and then his stats don't justify a big contract the following season and the rumor mill starts to churn ("Maddux is done"). All of a sudden the offers dry up and he is stuck with end-of-career contracts which are NEVER as lucrative as when you are still perceived to be at the top of your game.

I agree that in most cases, 1 year, $15-20M is worth taking, but given Maddux's age, I doubt Boras wants to settle for it...

So you would tell him to sit out a season when no one offers him a 4 year deal,rather than take the 20 mil for one year and try again next offseason?

I don't see anyone signing him to a 4 year deal this year.

voodoochile
12-17-2002, 06:36 PM
Originally posted by daver
So you would tell him to sit out a season when no one offers him a 4 year deal,rather than take the 20 mil for one year and try again next offseason?

I don't see anyone signing him to a 4 year deal this year.

What I would do and what I think Boras will do are different matters. He knows way more about the dynamics and market for Maddux than I do. My guess is he already has some feelers out there and is very aware of what the current market is for Maddux...

Lip Man 1
12-18-2002, 01:02 AM
Gang:

There's one other possibility that nobody has brought up here. it was mentioned tonight by Tim Kurkjian on ESPN

He feels that Maddux will accept the Braves offer of arbitration and that Boras will set a very high figure (15 - 20 million).

If Maddux wins his case (or comes close), the Braves will not be able to afford all of their current starting pitchers and that they will be forced to either TRADE Maddux or Kevin Millwood.

Kurkjian says he can't imagine Atlanta trading Millwood and feels that Maddux will be dealt for a TON of players / prospects (Thus solving the Braves hitting shortcomings...)

Schuholz is positively brilliant isn't he? What a fait accompli. God if only the Sox had a GM with half of his ability. I guess the only potential hitch is if Maddux has a no trade clause (or if that even is in effect for free agents who accept arbitration?)

Lip

kermittheefrog
12-18-2002, 01:05 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1

Schuholz is positively brilliant isn't he? What a fait accompli. God if only the Sox had a GM with half of his ability. I guess the only potential hitch is if Maddux has a no trade clause (or if that even is in effect for free agents who accept arbitration?)


He's a 10/5 guy, he has veto power over any trade involving him.

Nellie_Fox
12-18-2002, 01:14 AM
You'd recommend to a guy who will be 37 years old at the start of next season that he should sit out a year to increase his value? Interesting.

Lip Man 1
12-18-2002, 01:24 AM
Andrew:

Thanks for giving me that info. That could make it hard to deal Maddux, it certainly complicates it.

Lip

kermittheefrog
12-18-2002, 01:41 AM
Originally posted by Nellie_Fox
You'd recommend to a guy who will be 37 years old at the start of next season that he should sit out a year to increase his value? Interesting.

Not the whole year, just the beginning if he doesn't get the offer he lives.

Nellie_Fox
12-18-2002, 01:59 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Not the whole year, just the beginning if he doesn't get the offer he lives. What am I missing here? If he refuses arbitration (which would probably give him huge dollars) and holds out, what makes you think that someone would come forward with an offer that would be better than what they were willing to give him before he sat out? I'm genuinely confused.

kermittheefrog
12-18-2002, 03:08 AM
Originally posted by Nellie_Fox
What am I missing here? If he refuses arbitration (which would probably give him huge dollars) and holds out, what makes you think that someone would come forward with an offer that would be better than what they were willing to give him before he sat out? I'm genuinely confused.

Right now free agents are getting lowballed because the new CBA has changed the market. The money to give Maddux the deal he wants is there, the owners are just not willing to give it out at the moment. If he shows he won't play for less than what he sees as fair market value an owner who really wants him may pony up the contract he wants.

RichH55
12-18-2002, 03:30 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Gang:

There's one other possibility that nobody has brought up here. it was mentioned tonight by Tim Kurkjian on ESPN

He feels that Maddux will accept the Braves offer of arbitration and that Boras will set a very high figure (15 - 20 million).

If Maddux wins his case (or comes close), the Braves will not be able to afford all of their current starting pitchers and that they will be forced to either TRADE Maddux or Kevin Millwood.

Kurkjian says he can't imagine Atlanta trading Millwood and feels that Maddux will be dealt for a TON of players / prospects (Thus solving the Braves hitting shortcomings...)

Schuholz is positively brilliant isn't he? What a fait accompli. God if only the Sox had a GM with half of his ability. I guess the only potential hitch is if Maddux has a no trade clause (or if that even is in effect for free agents who accept arbitration?)

Lip


He gets praise for something that hasnt even happened; something that has only been reported as a far off rumor? He's a good GM, but lets not invent reasons to make the guy a Saint

voodoochile
12-18-2002, 07:30 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Right now free agents are getting lowballed because the new CBA has changed the market. The money to give Maddux the deal he wants is there, the owners are just not willing to give it out at the moment. If he shows he won't play for less than what he sees as fair market value an owner who really wants him may pony up the contract he wants.

And don't think for a minute that Boras wouldn't LOVE being the agent who sticks it to the owners one more time. Heck, if there is collusion to be proven (I'm not saying there is, but it is part of the rumor mill) then Maddux getting lowballed by the whole league could certainly be considered evidence of said collusion. Boras has nothing to lose by playing hardball here. He has a legitimate star - an ace - and a league filled with rich owners. Someone will crack - maybe Texas. I'd also bet (like I said before) that Boras already has feelers out and knows he can get the money for Maddux if he can get him traded to the right team and that they do have control over.

I would think that Maddux desire for a long term contract would make him MORE likely to accept a trade which offers a long term contract and will force the Braves to lower their asking price if they are dead set on trading him.

I would also think that while Boras would like to see a 5 year deal, that he would probably settle for a 3 year deal with a 4th as an option or a big buyout clause like Rocket has with the Yankees. Something like 4 years, $14M with the final year as a team option with a $7M buyout if the team fails to pick it up.

Lip Man 1
12-18-2002, 11:21 AM
Rich:

I'm not but just the fact that this is a possibility is impressive. That shows foresight, proactivness and ability.

The best GM's all have it...Gillick, Jocketty, Beane, Schurholz, Hart, Cashman and Sabean.

Then you have guys like LaMar and Williams and whoever is ruining the Brewers and Pirates.

Some group to be associated with eh?

By the way has anybody noticed that since Jumbotron Ron was left out in the cold by Baltimore, NO ONE who ever was hired by Reinsdorf to be the Sox GM, has ever gotten another position any place in MLB? (Harrelson, Scheuler,) Williams of course hasn't been fired (quit) yet (but I'm hoping!)

The only guy who did was Roland Hemond (and he was hired by Veeck)

Lip

hold2dibber
12-18-2002, 11:27 AM
Originally posted by voodoochile
I would also think that while Boras would like to see a 5 year deal, that he would probably settle for a 3 year deal with a 4th as an option or a big buyout clause like Rocket has with the Yankees. Something like 4 years, $14M with the final year as a team option with a $7M buyout if the team fails to pick it up.

What was Glavine's deal with the Metropolitans? I though 3 years guaranted at about $12 million per year, with a fourth year option that vests based on performance. Is that about right? In any event, I would think that Maddux would want a deal comparable to that which Glavine got from the Mets.

WinningUgly!
12-18-2002, 07:27 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
By the way has anybody noticed that since Jumbotron Ron was left out in the cold by Baltimore, NO ONE who ever was hired by Reinsdorf to be the Sox GM, has ever gotten another position any place in MLB? (Harrelson, Scheuler,) Williams of course hasn't been fired (quit) yet (but I'm hoping!)

The only guy who did was Roland Hemond (and he was hired by Veeck)

Lip

Larry Himes?

kermittheefrog
12-18-2002, 08:07 PM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
Larry Himes?

I think he was hired by the Angels.

WinningUgly!
12-18-2002, 08:17 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
I think he was hired by the Angels.

I know he was on the Norhtside for a few years.

Lip Man 1
12-18-2002, 09:11 PM
You are right, he was the Cubs GM for a few years, I think Ed Lynch took his job but I'm not sure.

Lip

Lip Man 1
12-18-2002, 11:38 PM
RichH55 may be interested in this:

According to the New York Daily News: "If Maddux agrees to arbitration, giving him a new one-year arrangement with Atlanta, the Braves will deal Russ Ortiz to the Cardinals for second baseman Fernando Viņa. If Maddux doesn't agree, the Braves could become a player for free agent outfielder Cliff Floyd"

Maybe I underestimated how good Schurholz is! You got to admit that would be a coup.

Lip

RichH55
12-19-2002, 02:45 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
RichH55 may be interested in this:

According to the New York Daily News: "If Maddux agrees to arbitration, giving him a new one-year arrangement with Atlanta, the Braves will deal Russ Ortiz to the Cardinals for second baseman Fernando Viņa. If Maddux doesn't agree, the Braves could become a player for free agent outfielder Cliff Floyd"

Maybe I underestimated how good Schurholz is! You got to admit that would be a coup.

Lip


Well having a backup plan is a good thing, you can never have enough starting pitching.....Vina isnt a bad player, but he isnt exactly blowing my skirt up either.....We will have to see how it all works out