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View Full Version : neyer on the value of valdes


jeremyb1
11-13-2002, 06:12 PM
i think ismael valdes would be a good signing and according to espn won't even get 3 million on the market. here's what rob neyer had to say, seems right on to me:

What do you make of this progression?

5.46 ... 4.45 ... 4.18

Those are the ERA's posted by Ismael Valdes in 2000, 2001 and 2002. In 2000, he suffered from a shoulder injury and pitched poorly with both the Cubs and Dodgers. In 2002, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 23 starts for the Rangers before going to the Mariners in an August trade. Granted, he didn't pitch well for the M's -- 2-3, 4.93 -- but that was only eight starts.

The knock against Valdes? He started 31 games but managed to win only eight of them. But that's just bad luck. Given just decent luck, Valdes could easily have won 13 or 14 games, and if he'd won 13 or 14 games his agent would be fielding calls from half a dozen serious suitors.

I'm not saying Valdes deserves Tom Glavine money, or Kenny Rogers money, or even Steve Trachsel money. But if his shoulder's right, he could make one fine No. 3 starter for a lot of teams in the major leagues. And the price is right.

hold2dibber
11-13-2002, 07:42 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
i think ismael valdes would be a good signing and according to espn won't even get 3 million on the market. here's what rob neyer had to say, seems right on to me:

What do you make of this progression?

5.46 ... 4.45 ... 4.18

Those are the ERA's posted by Ismael Valdes in 2000, 2001 and 2002. In 2000, he suffered from a shoulder injury and pitched poorly with both the Cubs and Dodgers. In 2002, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 23 starts for the Rangers before going to the Mariners in an August trade. Granted, he didn't pitch well for the M's -- 2-3, 4.93 -- but that was only eight starts.

The knock against Valdes? He started 31 games but managed to win only eight of them. But that's just bad luck. Given just decent luck, Valdes could easily have won 13 or 14 games, and if he'd won 13 or 14 games his agent would be fielding calls from half a dozen serious suitors.

I'm not saying Valdes deserves Tom Glavine money, or Kenny Rogers money, or even Steve Trachsel money. But if his shoulder's right, he could make one fine No. 3 starter for a lot of teams in the major leagues. And the price is right.

I don't think Valdes would be a bad pick up, depending on the circumstances. Valdes is not a top of the rotation difference maker. He is not a no.2. The Sox need a no.2. If they just get Valdes with the thought that he's the long-sought no. 2, they haven't done enough, IMHO. Also, if they get a legit no. 2 (e.g., Colon or Moyer or Vazquez) I would rather see them use the nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation for Garland, Wright, and either Biddle and Rauch. Those guys will come cheaper than Valdes (maybe some of the money saved can be used for that no. 2 starter or for PK or Buehrle's extension) and all have a good shot at being as good as or better than Valdes next year. If, however, the Sox have to trade one of those young guys to get a no. 2, then Valdes would be a good pick up to stick in the no. 3 or 4 slot.

duke of dorwood
11-13-2002, 08:40 PM
I have higher hopes than this guy. Just seen too many games that he's been rocked in. There's a reason he moves from team to team.

RichH55
11-13-2002, 10:29 PM
Originally posted by duke of dorwood
I have higher hopes than this guy. Just seen too many games that he's been rocked in. There's a reason he moves from team to team.

Agreed....I dont think he offers much more(if any) than the Wrights, Garlands of the world in the back of a rotation

chisox06
11-13-2002, 10:49 PM
Originally posted by RichH55
Agreed....I dont think he offers much more(if any) than the Wrights, Garlands of the world in the back of a rotation

I also agree, he might be good or not, you cant really tell where this guy is gonna be, like a Garland or Wright. It's interesting but the sox need someone PROVEN, a veteran that can get this team to the top of the division.

Tragg
11-13-2002, 11:10 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1


I'm not saying Valdes deserves Tom Glavine money, or Kenny Rogers money, or even Steve Trachsel money. But if his shoulder's right, he could make one fine No. 3 starter for a lot of teams in the major leagues. And the price is right.

Kenny Rogers money? Geeze, has a more mediocre pitcher pitched so long and for so much money as Kenny Rogers?

Lip Man 1
11-13-2002, 11:25 PM
Duke says:

"I have higher hopes than this guy."

I did to until I remembered that Uncle Jerry was still running this dog and pony show called the Sox.

Lip