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BRDSR
05-30-2019, 09:43 PM
Last night Leury Garcia had two great defensive plays. Today he's got a leadoff double and a subsequent small ball run, and has another single as I'm writing this. Numbers below do not include tonight's game, but his numbers are worth analyzing. We have not really been factoring him into the rebuild (at least I haven't over the last few years). I think it's time to think about Leury Garcia and the Rebuild.

Garcia came to the White Sox in 2013 as a player to be named later for Alex Rios. An afterthought, it would seem. He makes $1.5M this season, is controlled next season, and is a free agent in 2021.

Garcia played a decent amount in 2014 with dismal results at the plate. He didn't play much at all at the big league level in 2015 or 2016, and played regularly (but not exactly a starter) in 2017 and 2018. He's been more of a starter this season. Projecting 2019 over the rest of the season at the plate, he's continuing to improve: he'll end with a slash line of .293/.328/.370, 6HR, 24 doubles, 48 RBI. Bear in mind, he's been batting a lot of leadoff, so the RBI won't be there as much. In 2017 he exhibited more in the way of power numbers, but the 2019 slash line seems a little closer to his likely production over the next few years. Over the last two years Garcia has shown a darn good record in stolen bases (19 SBs in 22 attempts). I'm awful at interpreting the new defensive stats, but he can play five different positions (all outfield and up the middle infield). He certainly plays more in the outfield, and I believe he's considered an average to above-average outfielder. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

According to baseball-reference.com, Garcia has a WAR of 1.3 right now, projecting to nearly 4 for the season. Let's round that down and call it 3.5, assuming you put even any stock in WAR. I'm skeptical, but don't consider it worthless. 3.5 is pretty valuable.

I'm looking at the organization and see Jimenez and Robert as (of course) obvious staples through 2021 at a minimum. While there are a lot of options for that 3rd starter spot, they've been struggling lately. I'm thinking Basabe and Gonzalez have been less than impressive this year, and Adolfo has major injury-related question marks in the long term.

The collective White Sox fan base has not generally considered Leury Garcia as part of the rebuild, but should he be? I'm thinking yes. Balancing cost and quality, I don't see a better 3rd outfielder option in the 2020-22 time frame than Leury Garcia. If someone happens to assert himself and take that 3rd spot, Garcia is an OUTSTANDING 4th outfielder/utility guy. I'd like to see the Sox lock him up for something like 3 years, $10M. That seems doable, as well as a great cost-savings to the Sox. Drop in the bucket financially, a lot of money in Garcia's mind, I'd think, and a Major League player who has proven his value over the course of a few years that can be a big part of the organization's next few (very important) years.

Who's with me?!:D:

HomeFish
05-30-2019, 09:49 PM
Sorry, you can't be part of the rebuild if you're gone in 2021. I don't think locking him up at his peak performance is wise.

BRDSR
05-30-2019, 09:53 PM
Sorry, you can't be part of the rebuild if you're gone in 2021. I don't think locking him up at his peak performance is wise.

Umm...when do you want to lock up the type of players who command 2 or 3 year contracts? Before you know their peak performance? After they've achieved their peak performance? No, at the moment it's realized, when you can get it cheap for another few years.

$10M for Leury through 2022 is a very, VERY small risk for the White Sox. If you think he's not a good baseball player, I get it, not worth it. But if he's got value at the MLB level, that's not a lot of money.

Edit: And by the way, I'm talking about a contract that would lock him in through the 2022 season, not "gone in 2021", which is ambiguous. Is he gone before the 2021 season, or after? I'm saying sign him to a 3 year contract for $10M, keeping him with us through the entirety of the 2022 season.

voodoochile
05-30-2019, 10:04 PM
What impresses me most is his bat control. He's been slapping the ball all over the place with great success. Given the number of positions he can cover he could be a fine bench piece for the team, more so since if he can continue his success with this hitting approach he makes a decent PH off the bench.

Mohoney
05-30-2019, 11:06 PM
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Let’s give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.

ChiSoxNationPres
05-30-2019, 11:12 PM
You don't have to lock up a 4th outfielder, they are easy to keep around if they prove useful. We'll see how useful he is on a team built to contend.

Regarding the 3rd OF spot; quality corner OFers are not costly to acquire either via free agency or trade if none of the 5 prospects (Rutherford, Basabe, Gonzalez, Walker, Adolfo) pan out.

voodoochile
05-30-2019, 11:21 PM
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Let’s give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.

If he were trying to hit for power I'd agree, but his swing is designed to slap the baseball not drive it. Those types of hitters typically do have higher BABIP.

Mohoney
05-30-2019, 11:33 PM
If he were trying to hit for power I'd agree, but his swing is designed to slap the baseball not drive it. Those types of hitters typically do have higher BABIP.

Not .382 high. That is unsustainable.

We need to not let recency bias cloud our judgement. 4 great games this week does not make the previous 2 months magically disappear. Like Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia simply is not as good as many fans make him out to be.

slavko
05-31-2019, 01:05 AM
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Let’s give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.

Does OPS have a lot of meaning for a leadoff man? I'd look at OBP first.

Frater Perdurabo
05-31-2019, 05:26 AM
Before this season I would have said no, mostly because his years of team control end before the rebuild is supposed to peak, because we have enough outfielders, and because he couldn’t stay healthy.

However, at some point you have to be willing to keep your good players.

If the Sox hover around .500, then they aren’t far from a wild card spot, and adding Collins and Robert to the lineup and Kopech and Cease to the rotation suddenly makes this an interesting team. With that in mind, maybe you keep contributors like Abreu, Colome, McCann, and even Leury.

If an Eloy-Leury-Robert outfield is productive in 2020, great!

Tragg
05-31-2019, 07:24 AM
I've always liked him, and still do. I think he's a good player because he can play infield and outfield. But he has a woeful 3% walk rate, which suggests his .716 OPS and .335 OBP are about at their peak. And despite Yolmer's struggles this year, I think Yolmer is the better player.
Should they trade him? Sure if they get an offer for some good or potentially good pitching. And then they have similar players like Rondon who would get more time if they traded him. And as he plays primarily OF, it will give more time to Cordell and Tilson, both of whom the Sox will have to make a decision on soon (and they'll need the room if Hahn insists on bringing up Jay)

Chez
05-31-2019, 07:46 AM
In the era of the 3-man bench, Leury (who plays average to above average defense at six positions) is a valuable option. Plus, I learned in the Athletic last week that his teammates have nicknamed him "Leroy" -- which I love.

MISoxfan
05-31-2019, 08:00 AM
At the beginning of this week, he had a .662 OPS for the season, 19% below league-average. He had a zero rating in Outs Above Average, which naturally equates to league-average.

Let’s give it another month or two. That .382 BABIP is bound to come crashing down to Earth eventually.

I think you're too down on Luery. You're cherry picking one of his low points of the season. 10 games ago his OPS was .708, 20 games ago it was .731. His 3 year slash line is .278/.316/.396 which can play at CF. Now if Leury can actually play at CF is another question.

That being said, he's 28 now and probably at his peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he can play at this level for the rest of this season and maybe even next. I don't believe he will be seeing regular playing time anywhere by 2021.

DumpJerry
05-31-2019, 09:34 AM
I started reading this thread not realizing math was on the test...….

He is either a great bench guy once Robert is here or can bring in some interesting prospects from a team that feels he fills a need.

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 09:40 AM
I think you're too down on Luery. You're cherry picking one of his low points of the season. 10 games ago his OPS was .708, 20 games ago it was .731. His 3 year slash line is .278/.316/.396 which can play at CF. Now if Leury can actually play at CF is another question.

That being said, he's 28 now and probably at his peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he can play at this level for the rest of this season and maybe even next. I don't believe he will be seeing regular playing time anywhere by 2021.
You’re also cherry-picking by throwing that outlier 2017 season into your 3-year slash. That was the only year he ever had an OPS+ above 90.

HomeFish
05-31-2019, 09:46 AM
The armchair GMs are WSI are very enamored with the Sox overperforming spare parts right now. Calls to lock up not just Leury, but also McCann. I continue to think that the chance that these players fall back to earth (especially with McCann who is old) is much greater than these players continuing to play at this rate.

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 09:55 AM
The armchair GMs are WSI are very enamored with the Sox overperforming spare parts right now. Calls to lock up not just Leury, but also McCann. I continue to think that the chance that these players fall back to earth (especially with McCann who is old) is much greater than these players continuing to play at this rate.

With McCann, even if he falls off significantly offensively he still has a ton of value because of his defensive skills. If/when his OPS falls back to .750 he'd still be worth an extension. He's got a .7 DWAR and he's appeared in only 34 games and started 32. That projects out to a 3 DWAR over 130 starts.

He'd be a 5 WAR player at 750 OPS with that kind of defense.

asindc
05-31-2019, 10:02 AM
The armchair GMs are WSI are very enamored with the Sox overperforming spare parts right now. Calls to lock up not just Leury, but also McCann. I continue to think that the chance that these players fall back to earth (especially with McCann who is old) is much greater than these players continuing to play at this rate.

28 (29 next month) is not old in the context of considering keeping him for the next 3-4 years.

asindc
05-31-2019, 10:04 AM
You’re also cherry-picking by throwing that outlier 2017 season into your 3-year slash. That was the only year he ever had an OPS+ above 90.

When having these discussions about players, isn't every player's outlier season included? I mean, we don't say "except for his best year, Trout's numbers are..."

TomBradley72
05-31-2019, 10:05 AM
With McCann, even if he falls off significantly offensively he still has a ton of value because of his defensive skills. If/when his OPS falls back to .750 he'd still be worth an extension. He's got a .7 DWAR and he's appeared in only 34 games and started 32. That projects out to a 3 DWAR over 130 starts.

He'd be a 5 WAR player at 750 OPS with that kind of defense.

McCann is 28, turning 29 yo- he can regress a ton and still bring value as a veteran complement to Zach Collins. Collins can't hit LHP- so he needs a RH platoon partner- I think McCann is a much better better bet for that role than Zavala (only 3 years younger) or going back out to the FA market.

With all the young pitchers- I think we really need a veteran in the mix at catcher.

Flight #24
05-31-2019, 10:13 AM
IMO guys like Leury/McCann are highly valuable for a team that's competing. First because you need some solid vets who can fill roles/holes and provide average or better MLB offense. Second because they are both playing pretty solid D (and in McCann's case, calling games/working with pitchers). The days of "trade anyone who's not a star to try and get someone who someday could be a star" are about done. You have your core: Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, soon Robert, you have a guy like Abreu who is an above average regular. You have to avoid sinkholes in the lineup. Garcia, McCann, Tilson all provide great value for a team like that because/assuming they provide some value at bat and in the field to fill out a lineup.

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 10:15 AM
When having these discussions about players, isn't every player's outlier season included? I mean, we don't say "except for his best year, Trout's numbers are..."
Just compare the outlier to the career line and see how different it is. Yes, Trout’s OPS+ of 198 last year is higher than his career mark of 175, but no one is debating whether or not Trout is a good baseball player. Trout’s regression to something closer to his career norm still leaves him in the company of the best hitters ever to play the game.

If Leury regresses to his career norm, he has no business in a major league team’s starting lineup, let alone leading off.

HomeFish
05-31-2019, 10:29 AM
IMO guys like Leury/McCann are highly valuable for a team that's competing. First because you need some solid vets who can fill roles/holes and provide average or better MLB offense. Second because they are both playing pretty solid D (and in McCann's case, calling games/working with pitchers). The days of "trade anyone who's not a star to try and get someone who someday could be a star" are about done. You have your core: Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, soon Robert, you have a guy like Abreu who is an above average regular. You have to avoid sinkholes in the lineup. Garcia, McCann, Tilson all provide great value for a team like that because/assuming they provide some value at bat and in the field to fill out a lineup.

There's no question that the 2022 White Sox need guys LIKE Leury Garcia or James McCann. They clearly do.

The question is whether they need THE Leury Garcia or THE James McCann. And I'd argue that it's probably less risky to bring in other guys LIKE Leury and James when their contracts expire instead of re-signing them at inflated price during their career years.

asindc
05-31-2019, 10:34 AM
Just compare the outlier to the career line and see how different it is. Yes, Trout’s OPS+ of 198 last year is higher than his career mark of 175, but no one is debating whether or not Trout is a good baseball player. Trout’s regression to something closer to his career norm still leaves him in the company of the best hitters ever to play the game.

If Leury regresses to his career norm, he has no business in a major league team’s starting lineup, let alone leading off.

I get that, but the point of including Leury's career year in this context is to note that he has done it before so his current upswing might not be a fluke.

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 10:45 AM
There's no question that the 2022 White Sox need guys LIKE Leury Garcia or James McCann. They clearly do.

The question is whether they need THE Leury Garcia or THE James McCann. And I'd argue that it's probably less risky to bring in other guys LIKE Leury and James when their contracts expire instead of re-signing them at inflated price during their career years.

You don't expect this team to be competing for a playoff spot and more until 2022?

jsg-07
05-31-2019, 11:04 AM
You don't expect this team to be competing for a playoff spot and more until 2022?

Man, I feel like we're a healthy Rodon and Kopech away from competing in 2019/2020 in this division.

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 11:22 AM
Man, I feel like we're a healthy Rodon and Kopech away from competing in 2019/2020 in this division.

Add a starting pitcher this team could make a run at a wildcard this season.

TomBradley72
05-31-2019, 11:30 AM
I think Leury could be a nice piece on the bench- he's developing into a pretty good super sub- I don't really see anyone on the way in the minors to take that role- and I don't really have much confidence in the Sox going out to FA market for "spare parts"- so if we have a valuable in house option- prefer we hang on to it. (includes Mccann)

WhiteSox5187
05-31-2019, 11:42 AM
Man, I feel like we're a healthy Rodon and Kopech away from competing in 2019/2020 in this division.

I'd hope that is the case but I don't think you can count on Rodon to stay healthy, Kopech will be coming off Tommy John surgery and will likely have some hiccups in terms of his stuff and command. I think Kopech can make a full recovery but it's not like you can pencil him in for 180+ innings with 180 strikeouts either.

As for Garcia, I still think he is best suited as a fourth outfielder and utility guy.

HomeFish
05-31-2019, 11:42 AM
You don't expect this team to be competing for a playoff spot and more until 2022?

I guess if everyone currently having a great year in 2019 also has a great year in 2020, and at that point Kopech, Cease, Rodon, and Robert are also on the team and playing well, then maybe the 2020 White Sox could contend.

Flight #24
05-31-2019, 11:42 AM
There's no question that the 2022 White Sox need guys LIKE Leury Garcia or James McCann. They clearly do.

The question is whether they need THE Leury Garcia or THE James McCann. And I'd argue that it's probably less risky to bring in other guys LIKE Leury and James when their contracts expire instead of re-signing them at inflated price during their career years.

They key differential is that I think 2020 is the year and you think (based on the quote) 2022. I would agree that true contention is not until 2022, but that starts with fielding a competing/quality team top to bottom in 2020, that's why Leury/McCann are valuable in 2020 - not like you flip a switch, pass go, collect $200, and jump from sub-.500 to title contender.

Calculus changes if you get a great offer for them, but otherwise, even if they are at inflated salaries, those inflations are unlikely to be giant, so seems a lot better to keep them and make the team better for next year when you're pushing for playoffs than to dump them for scraps/fringe guys.

Flight #24
05-31-2019, 11:43 AM
I guess if everyone currently having a great year in 2019 also has a great year in 2020, and at that point Kopech, Cease, Rodon, and Robert are also on the team and playing well, then maybe the 2020 White Sox could contend.

Without any of those 4, they're 2.5 out of a WC right now and 2 below .500. And you think if everything maintains and those 4 are up and playing well the team "could contend?":?:

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 11:49 AM
Add a starting pitcher this team could make a run at a wildcard this season.
Then what?

Four games against the putrid Royals and rapidly declining Indians do not negate that recent 2-5 road trip against the upper echelon of the AL. Add in a 3-7 record against the three best teams in the AL East, and this team is 5-12 against the real contenders.

Let’s just enjoy the progress that guys like Giolito, Anderson, Moncada, and Bummer have made. Hopefully Eloy and Lopez join that group as well. Hopefully Cease and Collins make it up here soon and join that group as well.

If they stand pat and try to make a run at it with guys who would have been promoted anyway, then so be it. However, if they do decide to make some trades, they should be sellers, not buyers.

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 12:03 PM
They key differential is that I think 2020 is the year and you think (based on the quote) 2022. I would agree that true contention is not until 2022, but that starts with fielding a competing/quality team top to bottom in 2020, that's why Leury/McCann are valuable in 2020 - not like you flip a switch, pass go, collect $200, and jump from sub-.500 to title contender.
The 2015 Cubs, the 2015 Mets, the 2013 Indians, the 2013 Pirates, the 2013 and 2016 Red Sox, and the 2014 Giants were all sub-.500 teams the year before they made the playoffs.

jsg-07
05-31-2019, 12:04 PM
I'd hope that is the case but I don't think you can count on Rodon to stay healthy, Kopech will be coming off Tommy John surgery and will likely have some hiccups in terms of his stuff and command. I think Kopech can make a full recovery but it's not like you can pencil him in for 180+ innings with 180 strikeouts either.

As for Garcia, I still think he is best suited as a fourth outfielder and utility guy.

Agreed on the ability for Rodon to stay healthy but my point was more of a "what if."

I also agree that if they could somehow swing a solid starter this year then who knows. I don't expect them to make a ton of noise if they somehow did sneak in the playoffs but stranger things have happened.

Some of these young guys, as part of the progression of the rebuild also need to taste what it feels like to be competitive and win important games.

My big thing is, we have all these expectations of marginal players (i.e., Garcia) and the younger guys, but its a lot to expect of them to produce in the crap line ups we've tossed out there the last few years. Give Garcia some protection in the line up hitting in front of guys who are potential all stars now and he's doing well so I don't think its horribly far fetched to think he'd be a solid player on a contender who'll slump but also show flashes. A more than solid utility guy.

Flight #24
05-31-2019, 12:14 PM
The 2015 Cubs, the 2015 Mets, the 2013 Indians, the 2013 Pirates, the 2013 and 2016 Red Sox, and the 2014 Giants were all sub-.500 teams the year before they made the playoffs.

Fair point. I still stand by that you don't punt on any decent player who's not a star for 2 more years, which was essentially HomeFish's argument.

It's one thing if you think Leury/McCann aren't going to be serviceable MLB regulars, then sure sell high. But even with some regression they should still be, and that means a lot to the 2020 team. (Unless you get a great offer.)

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 12:37 PM
Fair point. I still stand by that you don't punt on any decent player who's not a star for 2 more years, which was essentially HomeFish's argument.

It's one thing if you think Leury/McCann aren't going to be serviceable MLB regulars, then sure sell high. But even with some regression they should still be, and that means a lot to the 2020 team. (Unless you get a great offer.)
It’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison with those two. A good catcher is so hard to find nowadays, which makes McCann’s value much higher to the team.

A. Cavatica
05-31-2019, 12:45 PM
Without any of those 4, they're 2.5 out of a WC right now and 2 below .500. And you think if everything maintains and those 4 are up and playing well the team "could contend?":?:

He (HomeFish) is right. This team is a few good players (and a year of development) from possibly contending. The current team is under .500 despite a very easy first month, and has extremely shaky starting pitching. They are much better than last year but they are not winning the AL. Dreaming of a wild card spot is not "contending".

A. Cavatica
05-31-2019, 12:46 PM
It’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison with those two. A good catcher is so hard to find nowadays, which makes McCann’s value much higher to the team.

Lock up McCann.

Trade Leury, if you can.

MISoxfan
05-31-2019, 12:51 PM
You’re also cherry-picking by throwing that outlier 2017 season into your 3-year slash. That was the only year he ever had an OPS+ above 90.

2017 makes up 29% of his major league plate appearances. That's a pretty big chunk to just throw away.

Again, I believe he's probably peaking between 26-29 and probably not going to maintain this past next season (or even this season). I just don't think it's unreasonable that he can have a couple of these seasons in him based on his past body of work.

Mohoney
05-31-2019, 01:33 PM
2017 makes up 29% of his major league plate appearances. That's a pretty big chunk to just throw away.

Again, I believe he's probably peaking between 26-29 and probably not going to maintain this past next season (or even this season). I just don't think it's unreasonable that he can have a couple of these seasons in him based on his past body of work.
OK, then in the sake of fairness, we should include those ~300 plate appearances pre-2016, where he had an OPS under .500.

ChiSoxNationPres
05-31-2019, 01:49 PM
No need to lock up McCann, as we have him for next year too, to see how he is after a year or so with his new batting stance/approach. Can extend him at some point in '20 if he's still quality. I'm not looking to trade him for non top prospects, I don't see an everyday catcher from Collins or Sevala.

TomBradley72
05-31-2019, 02:01 PM
No need to lock up McCann, as we have him for next year too, to see how he is after a year or so with his new batting stance/approach. Can extend him at some point in '20 if he's still quality. I'm not looking to trade him for non top prospects, I don't see an everyday catcher from Collins or Sevala.

I could see potentially carrying 3 catchers- McCann, Zavala and Collins with Collins also taking on the role of being an option at DH and back up 1B vs. RHP.
(basically the Alonso role- with other regulars (looking at you Eloy) getting time at DH as a partial day off, etc.)

WhiteSox5187
05-31-2019, 02:05 PM
The 2015 Cubs, the 2015 Mets, the 2013 Indians, the 2013 Pirates, the 2013 and 2016 Red Sox, and the 2014 Giants were all sub-.500 teams the year before they made the playoffs.

Out of those teams, I think only the 2015 Mets (who seem more and more like a fluke with each passing day) are a valid comparison.

The 2014 Giants had won the World Series just two years prior though, the 2012 The Cubs, Indians and 2013 Red Sox made managerial changes, which I doubt the Sox are going to do.

The Pirates were 60-44 at one point in 2012 before they collapsed (I seem to recall the Pirates were in first place for long stretches in 2010, 2011 and 2012 before falling apart in the second half). So it's not like their success came out of nowhere.

TheVulture
05-31-2019, 02:06 PM
The armchair GMs are WSI are very enamored with the Sox overperforming spare parts right now. Calls to lock up not just Leury, but also McCann. I continue to think that the chance that these players fall back to earth (especially with McCann who is old) is much greater than these players continuing to play at this rate.
Come on, now. McCann may be overperforming at the plate, but he is clearly the best catcher the Sox have had in years.

kittle42
05-31-2019, 03:45 PM
Come on, now. McCann may be overperforming at the plate, but he is clearly the best catcher the Sox have had in years.

Nevertheless, you don't overreact to 138 plate appearances from a guy who is almost 29. He has a .432 BABIP. .432. That is completely unsustainable even for a guy with the speed of Rickey Henderson.

There is no appreciable change in his power or eye. He is going opposite filed quite a bit more, which could be a fundamental approach change and is great. But it still doesn't support his average and OBP. They will regress.

He's a fine-to-maybe-quality backup, as the most likely outcome.

I know those of you arguing to lock up McCann don't care to make heads or tails of the above, but that doesn't make it less true.

For a purely Sox-centric comparison, see 2006 Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts.

MISoxfan
05-31-2019, 03:47 PM
OK, then in the sake of fairness, we should include those ~300 plate appearances pre-2016, where he had an OPS under .500.

I think a 3-season sample is a pretty typical sample that is often chosen to gauge someone's expected production. I guess we're ot going to get anywhere with this. Ultimately we'll see at the end of the season. I will go out on a limb and say that I think he will finish somewhere near a .710 OPS +/- .20.

kittle42
05-31-2019, 03:48 PM
I think a 3-season sample is a pretty typical sample that is often chosen to gauge someone's expected production.

Except for Brian Anderson. For some, the jury is still out!

blurry
05-31-2019, 04:19 PM
Nevertheless, you don't overreact to 138 plate appearances from a guy who is almost 29. He has a .432 BABIP. .432. That is completely unsustainable even for a guy with the speed of Rickey Henderson.

There is no appreciable change in his power or eye. He is going opposite filed quite a bit more, which could be a fundamental approach change and is great. But it still doesn't support his average and OBP. They will regress.

He's a fine-to-maybe-quality backup, as the most likely outcome.

I know those of you arguing to lock up McCann don't care to make heads or tails of the above, but that doesn't make it less true.

For a purely Sox-centric comparison, see 2006 Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts.

Yeah I agree. I like what McCann is doing but his peripherals all point toward some serious regression. He isn't going to keep this up with that BABIP. He's hitting the ball just as hard as he did in the past too. The guy is a defensive backup who's on a hot streak with his bat. This is Avi 2.0 - sell high.

kittle42
05-31-2019, 04:22 PM
This is Avi 2.0 - sell high.

Hey, Avi is looking like 2017 Avi right now!

Domeshot17
05-31-2019, 04:24 PM
Hope he keeps it up, and flip him at the deadline.

He has been very lucky this year

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 05:34 PM
Nevertheless, you don't overreact to 138 plate appearances from a guy who is almost 29. He has a .432 BABIP. .432. That is completely unsustainable even for a guy with the speed of Rickey Henderson.

There is no appreciable change in his power or eye. He is going opposite filed quite a bit more, which could be a fundamental approach change and is great. But it still doesn't support his average and OBP. They will regress.

He's a fine-to-maybe-quality backup, as the most likely outcome.

I know those of you arguing to lock up McCann don't care to make heads or tails of the above, but that doesn't make it less true.

For a purely Sox-centric comparison, see 2006 Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts.

I said this before but even if he regresses to the .750 OPS range he's still a 4+ WAR catcher over 130 games because his defense is spectacular.

Paulwny
05-31-2019, 05:47 PM
I said this before but even if he regresses to the .750 OPS range he's still a 4+ WAR catcher over 130 games because his defense is spectacular.

Agree, very few people here are looking at his defensive skills and handling of a young staff. They're only looking at his offense.
I don't care if he regresses offensively, he's the best catcher the Sox have had in a long time.

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 05:55 PM
Agree, very few people here are looking at his defensive skills and handling of a young staff. They're only looking at his offense.
I don't care if he regresses offensively, he's the best catcher the Sox have had in a long time.

And he's got a LOT of room for regression offensively before he becomes a burden. So he's not a cleanup hitter and will end up hitting 7th 8th or 9th like a LOT of catchers do. OH NO! :rolleyes:

Plus it's been widely reported he rebuilt his swing and made a conscious effort to do different things when hitting this year. So if he made the right decisions, it would be expected he would see a bump from his career norms. His career OPS is .673. If the changes he made will lead to an increase in output it would be fairly easy for him to climb into the .730 Range and that's just fine for a catcher.

A. Cavatica
05-31-2019, 07:57 PM
he's the best catcher the Sox have had in a long time.

Pierzynski? I can’t think of anyone who has given us even two good months since.

voodoochile
05-31-2019, 08:13 PM
Pierzynski? I can’t think of anyone who has given us even two good months since.

Castillo but then the next day he got a 50-game suspension. :tongue:

TheVulture
05-31-2019, 10:10 PM
Nevertheless, you don't overreact to 138 plate appearances from a guy who is almost 29. He has a .432 BABIP. .432. That is completely unsustainable even for a guy with the speed of Rickey Henderson.

There is no appreciable change in his power or eye. He is going opposite filed quite a bit more, which could be a fundamental approach change and is great. But it still doesn't support his average and OBP. They will regress.

He's a fine-to-maybe-quality backup, as the most likely outcome.

I know those of you arguing to lock up McCann don't care to make heads or tails of the above, but that doesn't make it less true.

For a purely Sox-centric comparison, see 2006 Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts.

I'm talking about catching skills. Catching skills don't come and go like the success of middle relievers. He may be a fine backup; he would be a finer backup than we have had as a starter since AJ. I'd take him if he was hitting .250.

Tragg
06-01-2019, 08:38 AM
They can extend McCann - if it's for the price of a solid defensive catcher. Can't pay the price of this career offensive year. They control him for next season and his framing stats aren't great.

voodoochile
06-01-2019, 09:37 AM
They can extend McCann - if it's for the price of a solid defensive catcher. Can't pay the price of this career offensive year. They control him for next season and his framing stats aren't great.

Two years ago he OPS .733. Last year he was terrible batting, but I don't know if there were mitigating circumstances, but this off season he retooled his swing. There might be reason to believe he can OPS .730+ especially in his prime years.

Tragg
06-03-2019, 12:52 PM
. Colome is having the definition of a career year, and if someone is willing to pay high, the Sox really should sell high. It's not an easy move to make, but a necessary one to get this show on the road.

Kilroy
06-03-2019, 03:12 PM
. Colome is having the definition of a career year, and if someone is willing to pay high, the Sox really should sell high. It's not an easy move to make, but a necessary one to get this show on the road.

I think this show is already on the road. I think the Sox are more in a place of needing to get injured guys back than they are in need of flipping pieces for more prospects.

Mohoney
06-03-2019, 03:34 PM
The problem with trading Colomé is that there are too many other closer options who look likely to be traded, plus Kimbrel is still looking for a contract.

Tragg
06-04-2019, 09:54 AM
I think this show is already on the road. I think the Sox are more in a place of needing to get injured guys back than they are in need of flipping pieces for more prospects.

They still have a lot of holes to fill, including 3, if not 4, starters, outfielders, etc.
Not really looking for a low prospect trade...if some team has excess young talent somewhere that would help the Sox. They really aren't contenders yet, and selling high is how to make really premium trades (which they could really use).

SBSoxFan
06-05-2019, 07:07 AM
The Phillies may be in need of a lead-off batter / CF now.

Frater Perdurabo
06-05-2019, 07:59 AM
The Phillies may be in need of a lead-off batter / CF now.

Wouldn’t that be fitting/ironic/funny, if the signers of Harper needed Leury Garcia to fill a hole.

Since they are into “being a little bit stupid,” they can have Leury for RHP Adonis Medina.

SBSoxFan
06-05-2019, 08:15 AM
Wouldn’t that be fitting/ironic/funny, if the signers of Harper needed Leury Garcia to fill a hole.

Since they are into “being a little bit stupid,” they can have Leury for RHP Adonis Medina.

That would be ironic. Based on 2019 WAR, Leury is having a better year! The body is such a fickle thing; the play looked relatively innocuous.

I don't follow the minor leagues. Would that be a lot stupid or a little stupid?

Frater Perdurabo
06-05-2019, 08:34 AM
That would be ironic. Based on 2019 WAR, Leury is having a better year! The body is such a fickle thing; the play looked relatively innocuous.

I don't follow the minor leagues. Would that be a lot stupid or a little stupid?

Medina is the Phillies’ #2 prospect, and is #68 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. He’s currently pitching in AA and has a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. According to the scouting report, he

throws a lot of strikes, but he's still learning to harness his premium stuff within the zone ... he just needs more development time to iron that out and the Phillies feel he has the athleticism, aptitude and competitiveness to reach his ceiling as a frontline starter.

SBSoxFan
06-05-2019, 09:09 AM
Medina is the Phillies’ #2 prospect, and is #68 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. He’s currently pitching in AA and has a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. According to the scouting report, he

So ... a lot stupid. :D:

Mohoney
06-05-2019, 11:02 AM
The Phillies may be in need of a lead-off batter / CF now.
Poor Cutch. Definitely one of baseball’s good guys.

Tragg
06-05-2019, 05:05 PM
Wouldn’t that be fitting/ironic/funny, if the signers of Harper needed Leury Garcia to fill a hole.

What it would be is fantastic!