View Full Version : Mathematical proof that the Cubs will falter!

08-09-2001, 03:43 PM
The Cubs are not going into the playoffs. Let's assume, for the moment, that Houston DOES overtake Chicago in the NL Central (which is as good of an assumption as it is bad, when comparing schedule strength). If it's not true, all the Cubs have to do is beat out Houston, and the playoff matter is settled. If it is true,
Chicago's only post season hope is the Wild Card. The NL's wild card has averaged 93 wins since it's inception in 1995, so the cubs would need 28 wins to get there, aka, go 28-22 down the stretch. Only 17 of their remaining 50 games are against what one would call "easy" teams. The last time the Cubs won a
series against an NL team worthy of showing up to play baseball -- a non-easy team -- was June 5-7 against the Cardinals, two months ago.

The Cubs play San Francisco, three series with Houston, Arizona, two series with Florida and two series with Atlanta. The first four comprise four of the top six hitting teams in the NL. The last one is the only team with better pitching in the NL. The Cubs have yet to win a series against ANY of those teams all year.

So, what does this mean for jo blo Cubs fan? Assume they win 14 of their 17 easy games (which is probably high with the way Cincy has been playing lately)...they can still only expect to win 1/3 of the remaining 33 games. 14 from the easys plus 11 from
the hards and what does that equal? A .500 record for the Cubs down the stretch, 3 games out of qualifying for the wild card.

This has 1969 written all over it, only instead of Tom Seaver for the Mets, it's Shane Reynolds for the Astros.

Aw c'mon, who needs that "math" stuff when we've got Cubbie magic!! Remember the 1982 Marlins? Those guys defied the odds, and this Cubs team reminds me of them!

08-09-2001, 04:04 PM
Great post! I'll say this, if there is one thing you can't argue with it's numbers. I posted a while back when the Twinks were 6 up on Cleveland that they would lose the lead in the AL Central in late July, simply because they hadn't played any team of consequence (unfortunately, the Sox were one of them).

These are similar stats and you can't just ignore them. The Flubs will need some of Chimp's "magic" to hold off the Astros.

BTW, the '82 Marlins were a phenominal club. LMAO!

08-09-2001, 04:32 PM
The Flubs have feasted on the weak teams this year (which, granted, they need to do to be a playoff contender). They've also been swept at least once by each of the 3 teams behind them in the NLC: Houston, St. Louis and Milwaukee. Except for a sweep against Minnesota (a series where they didn't face the Twins top starters), nothing they've done against the elite teams this year has been very impressive. I really hope we're looking at 1969: Part 2 here. The amount of heartbreak and crying that will occur if your analysis proves correct will be incredible. Moronotti and North alone will probably flood the whole north side. It will be, as the Moron would say, "delicious".