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View Full Version : Chris Sale Innings in 2014


soxfanreggie
08-11-2013, 03:14 PM
There was a very interesting point on WSCR this morning about the innings Sale would pitch in 2014 and potentially even 2015 if the Sox are in the middle of a re-build.

Sox fans, do you want a guy like Sale on an innings limit later on in the year if the team is out of it? Not to say he would be shut down but maybe have a few starts off or not go as deep in the games if we have a big lead or deficit.

I'm not advocating for it, but I thought it was a point that could lead to interesting discussion at least for 2014.

voodoochile
08-11-2013, 04:13 PM
Way too soon to even be talking about that, IMO. It would totally depend on Coop and Herm and whoever the manager is as well as where the Sox are in terms of contention, etc.

I'd leave it to the medical/baseball professionals, personally. I wouldn't even know where to start making that decision.

amsteel
08-11-2013, 04:27 PM
Absolutely, at this point, the only thing the Sox are achieving by starting Sale is a lower draft pick.

Line it up so he gets plenty of starts on Sundays so more people see him and keep his arm fresh for when/if he's actually ever needed in September/October.

soxfanreggie
08-11-2013, 04:49 PM
Way too soon to even be talking about that, IMO. It would totally depend on Coop and Herm and whoever the manager is as well as where the Sox are in terms of contention, etc.

I'd leave it to the medical/baseball professionals, personally. I wouldn't even know where to start making that decision.

I get what you're saying about who needs to be in on the discussion, but why is it too soon? It is even a discussion to have this year as well.

Tragg
08-11-2013, 05:13 PM
Go to a 6 man rotation. Sale's not the only one out there who's been overpitched and could use some relief. More opportunity to give young guys a chance too.

dickallen15
08-11-2013, 05:25 PM
Sale needs to build arm strength. Easing up on him and having him throw 150 innings next year and /or the year after could leave you in a predicament when yo do need him to pitch 220 innings. The Sox have been one of the most successful teams in baseball keeping their pitchers healthy. I think they know what they are doing better than any of us, but I am sure someone is about to tell me how wrong I am.

Mr. Jinx
08-11-2013, 05:38 PM
Sale needs to build arm strength. Easing up on him and having him throw 150 innings next year and /or the year after could leave you in a predicament when yo do need him to pitch 220 innings. The Sox have been one of the most successful teams in baseball keeping their pitchers healthy. I think they know what they are doing better than any of us, but I am sure someone is about to tell me how wrong I am.

You're wrong! Look at John Danks and Gavin Floyd!

Really though, that's completely true. Other than recent miscues in the last 2 seasons, the Sox have consistently kept their starters healthy.

TheVulture
08-11-2013, 06:19 PM
Count me in the "use it or lose it" vote.

soxfanreggie
08-11-2013, 06:57 PM
Sale needs to build arm strength. Easing up on him and having him throw 150 innings next year and /or the year after could leave you in a predicament when yo do need him to pitch 220 innings. The Sox have been one of the most successful teams in baseball keeping their pitchers healthy. I think they know what they are doing better than any of us, but I am sure someone is about to tell me how wrong I am.

Could you go 170-180 in 2014 and reasonably expect that he could make a jump to 200 in 2015 and then 220 in 2016?

That would be where I would want to talk to the medical experts is to what it takes to stretch someone out for 10-20 more innings in a year.

My personal thought: I don't want to see him over 200 innings next year if we aren't serious competitors. If it means 175...180...that's fine. If we have Floyd back and he starts in the pen, we need to see what he can do as an option back in the rotation.

WLL1855
08-11-2013, 07:09 PM
If he doesn't get shut down he's on track for about 8-10 more starts. Six innings a start puts him around or slightly over 200 innings.

I'd say same as always. Monitor him closely (this should apply to every pitcher we have as well). If he's healthy you let him pitch. I wouldn't gripe much if they limited him to no more than one start a week though.

voodoochile
08-11-2013, 07:09 PM
I get what you're saying about who needs to be in on the discussion, but why is it too soon? It is even a discussion to have this year as well.

I'd have the discussion about this year but would still defer to those in charge. Let them figure out if he needs the down time. Some guys do better with more work.

I can't see how we can have a discussion about what goes down 12 months from now. I don't expect to be able to recognize the team next season. I expect the Sox are going to spend a LOT of money in FA this off season and how that will impact next season only time will tell.

Mr. Jinx
08-11-2013, 07:12 PM
I'd have the discussion about this year but would still defer to those in charge. Let them figure out if he needs the down time. Some guys do better with more work.

I can't see how we can have a discussion about what goes down 12 months from now. I don't expect to be able to recognize the team next season. I expect the Sox are going to spend a LOT of money in FA this off season and how that will impact next season only time will tell.

I hope you are right, but I expect you will be disappointed.

DSpivack
08-12-2013, 01:40 AM
I hope you are right, but I expect you will be disappointed.

While I don't think the Sox are going to splurge for multiple top free agents, I don't think they're going to cut payroll in half from this season, either. Currently they have just $47 million on the books for 2014; which BRef estimates at $61 million once you factor in arbitration figures. While I think the 2014 payroll will be less than the $120 million opening day 2013 number, I think it will lie somewhere in between, perhaps around $90 million (a figure which is nothing more than a stab in the dark). Even cutting substantially from the opening 2013 number could mean signing a number of (perhaps lesser) free agents this offseason.

billyvsox
08-12-2013, 10:22 AM
Being a crappy team hasn't kept Seattle from pitching King Felx big innings every year and he has just done fine including a cy young and era titles. Don't over manage Sale. How did that work for Strasburg and the Nats

DeadMoney
08-12-2013, 12:48 PM
If the Sox could start doing something like this in Seattle (http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/sea/ticketing/kings_court.jsp), or this in Tampa (http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/tb/ticketing/district_k9.jsp), or this in New York (http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/nym/ticketing/ticket_offer.jsp), then start him as much as possible and get the fans in the seats!

Honestly though, I trust Sale/Coop/Herm to know what's best for Sale. If he wants to keep going and keep stacking them Top ~5s in the Cy Young, then more power to him. You don't get to be one of the best by being babied and on top of it - the crap-shoot that is a pitcher's arm/health isn't worth trying to predict.

Hijack: And why don't the Sox do something like those pitcher ticket specials!? Those teams aren't really even offering discounts on those days. Just a way for fans to feel like they're part of something unique/special.

Huisj
08-12-2013, 12:52 PM
I don't think you start putting innings caps on guys for future years when you have no idea what the situation will be. They could be good, they could be terrible. He could be on fire, he could be worn out, he could throw lots of laborsome innings for a lousy team, he could get hurt, he could be steady and efficient. Who knows.

thomas35forever
08-12-2013, 12:57 PM
I don't like it unless he's coming off a serious injury, which he's not. I hate this era of protecting pitchers more than we should at times. Either pitch 'em as far they can reasonably go without blowing their arms out or trade him someplace where he can be more useful.

Hitmen77
08-13-2013, 09:20 AM
I'd have the discussion about this year but would still defer to those in charge. Let them figure out if he needs the down time. Some guys do better with more work.

I can't see how we can have a discussion about what goes down 12 months from now. I don't expect to be able to recognize the team next season. I expect the Sox are going to spend a LOT of money in FA this off season and how that will impact next season only time will tell.

I wish I shared your optimism. The good news is that, whatever money they do spend on FA probably doesn't have to go toward starting pitching.

voodoochile
08-13-2013, 09:37 AM
I wish I shared your optimism. The good news is that, whatever money they do spend on FA probably doesn't have to go toward starting pitching.

The Sox have a grand total of $48M committed to next year's payroll according to Cots. Even with raises coming for Beckham, Viciedo and Flowers (assuming they keep him) they should have 40-45M to spend just to get back to $100M (which they've easily averaged since 2006). That should net them a 3B and Catcher and hopefully an OF too with money left over to spend on RP and a #5 SP (if they think they need one).

I expect Beckham to sign a 4-5 year contract and they might try to lock in Tank for 3-4 years too, but expect both their 2014 numbers to come in at or below Sale this year (3.5 M). That's a total obligation of 55M - 40M if they trade Dunn.

All of this is before we even factor in the extra money they will get from the new national TV contract.

Even if they go really low on payroll due to obligations not met from this season they will have 25M or so to spend and I'll be shocked if they only commit 80M to payroll next year. They haven't been that low since 2005.

Tragg
08-13-2013, 10:18 AM
I wouldn't put an innings cap on him. I just don't see any reason to put over 110 pitches in a single game on him, or anyone else, other than on rare occasion.

Hitmen77
08-13-2013, 10:29 AM
The Sox have a grand total of $48M committed to next year's payroll according to Cots. Even with raises coming for Beckham, Viciedo and Flowers (assuming they keep him) they should have 40-45M to spend just to get back to $100M (which they've easily averaged since 2006). That should net them a 3B and Catcher and hopefully an OF too with money left over to spend on RP and a #5 SP (if they think they need one).

I expect Beckham to sign a 4-5 year contract and they might try to lock in Tank for 3-4 years too, but expect both their 2014 numbers to come in at or below Sale this year (3.5 M). That's a total obligation of 55M - 40M if they trade Dunn.

All of this is before we even factor in the extra money they will get from the new national TV contract.

Even if they go really low on payroll due to obligations not met from this season they will have 25M or so to spend and I'll be shocked if they only commit 80M to payroll next year. They haven't been that low since 2005.

Dunn and Danks will make close to $30M between the two of them. Are you saying that the payroll commitment for the rest of the team combined is a little less than $20M? Wow.

doublem23
08-13-2013, 10:31 AM
I wouldn't put an innings cap on him. I just don't see any reason to put over 110 pitches in a single game on him, or anyone else, other than on rare occasion.

Do you have any sort of substantiated scientific or medical data to back this opinion?

Wedema
08-13-2013, 10:55 AM
Dunn and Danks will make close to $30M between the two of them. Are you saying that the payroll commitment for the rest of the team combined is a little less than $20M? Wow.


Ramirez jumps up to $9.5M next year so that is $40M for the trio of Dunn, Danks, and Ramirez.

doublem23
08-13-2013, 11:04 AM
Dunn and Danks will make close to $30M between the two of them. Are you saying that the payroll commitment for the rest of the team combined is a little less than $20M? Wow.

That's only because guys who are in their arb or pre-arb years don't count towards the guaranteed total for next season; none of them have guarantee deals for the 2014 season even if they are still under team control. This includes guys like De Aza, Beckham, and Viciedo who will probably earn between $8-$10 million combined.

B-R's payroll tracker currently shows the Sox's estimated payroll for 2014 based on all guaranteed salaries, expected arb cases, and adding enough league minimum salaries to reach a 25-man roster at a tick under $70 million.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

The Sox currently only have guaranteed deals for 2014 with Danks ($14.25 M), Dunn ($15 M), Ramirez ($9.5 M), Sale ($3.5 M), and Keppinger ($4 M).

Tragg
08-13-2013, 01:47 PM
Do you have any sort of substantiated scientific or medical data to back this opinion?

No, just basic logic, the opinions of every other manager in MLB who don't pitch their pitchers like that and the opinions of many writers and analysts. But thanks for asking, Mr Moderator.

doublem23
08-13-2013, 02:00 PM
No, just basic logic, the opinions of every other manager in MLB who don't pitch their pitchers like that and the opinions of many writers and analysts. But thanks for asking, Mr Moderator.

God, it's going to be so embarrassing for you when someone takes the 15 seconds of time needed to show that, depending on what day it is, Chris Sale's not even in the top 30 of pitches thrown in MLB this year...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-pitching.shtml

So embarrassing. You're trying though, and I appreciate the effort.

Hitmen77
08-13-2013, 02:39 PM
That's only because guys who are in their arb or pre-arb years don't count towards the guaranteed total for next season; none of them have guarantee deals for the 2014 season even if they are still under team control. This includes guys like De Aza, Beckham, and Viciedo who will probably earn between $8-$10 million combined.

B-R's payroll tracker currently shows the Sox's estimated payroll for 2014 based on all guaranteed salaries, expected arb cases, and adding enough league minimum salaries to reach a 25-man roster at a tick under $70 million.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

The Sox currently only have guaranteed deals for 2014 with Danks ($14.25 M), Dunn ($15 M), Ramirez ($9.5 M), Sale ($3.5 M), and Keppinger ($4 M).

That makes more sense.

Noneck
08-13-2013, 03:07 PM
That makes more sense.


Thats where I see it, I dont see it anywhere close to 100M. Hope the extra coin is used in the minor league system, foreign signings, not more pocket change for ownership.

doublem23
08-13-2013, 03:34 PM
Thats where I see it, I dont see it anywhere close to 100M. Hope the extra coin is used in the minor league system, foreign signings, not more pocket change for ownership.

Since winning the World Series, the Sox Opening Day payroll has been, on average, $108 M. I expect it to come in around there.

kobo
08-13-2013, 03:47 PM
Since winning the World Series, the Sox Opening Day payroll has been, on average, $108 M. I expect it to come in around there.
Ok, but this organization is no longer thriving off the high of the WS. There is a new GM in charge now, they are going to finish with a record we haven't seen in a long time, and with moves that have been made so far this indicates to me an organizational change. The payroll could be $100 million next year, but I think it will be more in the $85-90 million range.

Tragg
08-13-2013, 04:24 PM
God, it's going to be so embarrassing for you when someone takes the 15 seconds of time needed to show that, depending on what day it is, Chris Sale's not even in the top 30 of pitches thrown in MLB this year...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-pitching.shtml

So embarrassing. You're trying though, and I appreciate the effort.
Don't be embarrassed. You aren't the first poster to throw out statistics that really have nothing to do with the issue. In fact, I clearly said I wouldn't put an innings cap on him. You aren't the first poster to jeer another poster either when you don't like their opinions, so don't be embarrassed about that either.

Chris Sale leads the league in games with over 120 pitches thrown. The Sox are tied for first (with 3 playoff teams) in that category and are a clear second in games with 100-120 pitches from their starters. (see the website you referenced for evidence).
Those statistics are the ones that relate to the point I made which was "I wouldn't put an innings cap on him. I just don't see any reason to put over 110 pitches in a single game on him, or anyone else, other than on rare occasion."

Noneck
08-13-2013, 07:36 PM
Since winning the World Series, the Sox Opening Day payroll has been, on average, $108 M. I expect it to come in around there.

Most salary in recent years were raises to existing players, the only FA that got big bucks was Dunn.(I dont see another wavier wire acquisition like Rios or a trade to get a Peavy like player) So the Sox will not be giving big raises to any existing players and will need a couple or 3 Dunns to get to 100M. I dont see them getting a bunch of mid priced older FA's so in order to get to 100M, so they would have to piss the money away. I never see the Sox doing that.

Hitmen77
08-14-2013, 08:26 AM
Ok, but this organization is no longer thriving off the high of the WS. There is a new GM in charge now, they are going to finish with a record we haven't seen in a long time, and with moves that have been made so far this indicates to me an organizational change. The payroll could be $100 million next year, but I think it will be more in the $85-90 million range.

I agree. I think the Sox will take a hit in season ticket renewals after this debacle of a season and they'll be looking to make a modest cut in payroll. If the payroll is in this range and they already have about $70M, it might leave about $15-20M to spend. Hahn already said not all of the savings from trading Peavy and Rios were going back into payroll. Some of it will be spend on scouting and amateur draft signings.

So, no, I don't expect the Sox to be a big player in the FA market this winter. But, they should be able to get a couple of decent players (not all-stars) to fill some holes on this team.