PDA

View Full Version : By the Numbers...Yuck!


StillMissOzzie
06-20-2013, 12:36 AM
Including tonight's loss, the Sox are now 29-40, for a 0.420 pace. Also including tonight's loss, the Tigers are 39-31 for a 0.557 pace.

If the Sox stay on their current pace, they project out to 68-94. In order for the Sox to finish at 0.500, they have to go 52-41 for the rest of the year, which would be a 0.559 pace - just a few points above the Tigers' current pace.
If the Tigers stay on their current pace, they project out to win 90 games. In order for the Sox to contend and also win 90 games, they would need to go 61-32 the rest of the way, a torrid 0.656 pace.

To recap, the Sox need:
Current pace 0.420 to finish 68-94 ( yay, they won't lose 100 games!)
Need a pace of 0.559 to finish 81-81 (yay, another non-losing season!)
Need a pace of 0.656 to finish 90-72 (It's gonna happen, to borrow a North side pipe dream)

SMO
:gulp:

BainesHOF
06-20-2013, 12:41 AM
I appreciate the research, but this Sox team has no chance to contend, even in this division. It's a horrible team. I wouldn't waste my time entertaining such delusions. This isn't a good team playing badly. It's just a bad team.

blandman
06-20-2013, 12:49 AM
I appreciate the research, but this Sox team has no chance to contend, even in this division. It's a horrible team. I wouldn't waste my time entertaining such delusions. This isn't a good team playing badly. It's just a bad team.

When you consider how badly the Tiger's have underachieved, it really puts things in perspective. They've played about 6-8 games worse than they are, and they're still on pace for 90+ wins.

RCWHITESOX
06-20-2013, 01:40 AM
I think the Sox will have all they can do not to finish in last place. They may give the 1970 team a run for their money as to who will have the worst record.

QCIASOXFAN
06-20-2013, 01:48 AM
Bad to say but at this point I hope they do finish like that to lock in a top 5 pick.

doublem23
06-20-2013, 02:01 AM
When you consider how badly the Tiger's have underachieved, it really puts things in perspective. They've played about 6-8 games worse than they are, and they're still on pace for 90+ wins.

They're currently only 4 wins off their Pythagorean pace

soxfanatlanta
06-20-2013, 07:58 AM
Will this team lose 100?

SCCWS
06-20-2013, 08:45 AM
Will this team lose 100?

I would assume that if the Sox are sellers, they very well could.

24thStFan
06-20-2013, 08:49 AM
Bad to say but at this point I hope they do finish like that to lock in a top 5 pick.

Unfortunately, this may be the only silver lining of the 2013 season.

Railsplitter
06-20-2013, 08:57 AM
I appreciate the research, but this Sox team has no chance to contend, even in this division. It's a horrible team. I wouldn't waste my time entertaining such delusions. This isn't a good team playing badly. It's just a bad team.
I don't think SMO is saying the Sox can win it, he's just showing how bad off the Sox are.

SI1020
06-20-2013, 09:04 AM
They are 5-16 since the Marlins series.

doublem23
06-20-2013, 09:25 AM
They are 5-16 since the Marlins series.

Oof, and something like 7 of those games were with the Cubs and Astros.

Too bad. :(:

SoxSpeed22
06-20-2013, 09:45 AM
The Tigers know that they don't have to try until October. No one in this division is going to give them any challenge. Nothing about this Sox team suggests that they are going to turn it around. The most disheartening thing is the mental **** ups they keep committing.
I could handle it (which will be pretty likely in a few years) if they caught the ball, ran the bases effectively and moved guys over, but lost because they didn't have the talent. Now you don't have talent (save for Rios) and you're screwing up regularly, that's just more demoralizing.
But yeah, the numbers will probably carry over for the rest of the season.

Dan H
06-20-2013, 11:29 AM
Oof, and something like 7 of those games were with the Cubs and Astros.

Too bad. :(:

And adding the last two losses to the Twins, the Sox are 1-8 against three losing teams, two of them last place teams. I think that says it all.

Vestigio
06-20-2013, 12:08 PM
Also the Sox have yet to play the Tigers this season. Seeing as how the Tigers are a second half team, things wont look any better

Hitmen77
06-20-2013, 12:52 PM
I appreciate the research, but this Sox team has no chance to contend, even in this division. It's a horrible team. I wouldn't waste my time entertaining such delusions. This isn't a good team playing badly. It's just a bad team.

Agreed. ...and this bad team didn't just happen by accident. It took many years of bad trades and having a lousy farm system for them to sink to this level. There's really no point IMO in worrying about how many wins they need to catch up to Detroit.

Bad to say but at this point I hope they do finish like that to lock in a top 5 pick.

That doesn't give me much comfort at all. It's not like the Sox have been masters at drafting players that turn into above average major leaguers.

StillMissOzzie
06-20-2013, 02:44 PM
I don't think SMO is saying the Sox can win it, he's just showing how bad off the Sox are.

You are correct, sir.


SMO
:mad:

TheVulture
06-20-2013, 03:26 PM
That doesn't give me much comfort at all. It's not like the Sox have been masters at drafting players that turn into above average major leaguers.

The only high first round picks the Sox have had recently are Sale and Beckham. I don't know about you, but I'll take 'em.

DSpivack
06-20-2013, 03:54 PM
The only high first round picks the Sox have had recently are Sale and Beckham. I don't know about you, but I'll take 'em.

The latter is looking like a career utility IF. That's not good enough for a top 10 pick.

Hitmen77
06-20-2013, 04:22 PM
The only high first round picks the Sox have had recently are Sale and Beckham. I don't know about you, but I'll take 'em.

The latter is looking like a career utility IF. That's not good enough for a top 10 pick.

He's just one guy, but maybe Sale is a sign that things are improving for the Sox as far as draft picks are concerned. I agree with Dspivack that Beckham hasn't turned out that great.

Regardless of the Sox track record, i'm finding little solace in us being bad enough to get a top 5 pick. Even among competent teams, it's far from a sure thing to have top picks pan out.

doublem23
06-20-2013, 04:31 PM
The latter is looking like a career utility IF. That's not good enough for a top 10 pick.

I don't know man, by WAR, Beckham is already the 14th best 8th overall pick in the history of the Draft...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?overall_pick=8&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

DSpivack
06-20-2013, 05:07 PM
I don't know man, by WAR, Beckham is already the 14th best 8th overall pick in the history of the Draft...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?overall_pick=8&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

14/49 is the top third, mostly due to a good first season offensively and good defense for years. He's still bad enough to not be a good long-term answer at the position. I look at him as a mostly failed pick.

He's just one guy, but maybe Sale is a sign that things are improving for the Sox as far as draft picks are concerned. I agree with Dspivack that Beckham hasn't turned out that great.

Regardless of the Sox track record, i'm finding little solace in us being bad enough to get a top 5 pick. Even among competent teams, it's far from a sure thing to have top picks pan out.

I hope so, but to say that now seems premature. We'll see if any of the toolsy OFs work out, but a lot work in the minors remains to be done if the overall organizational talent is to improve.