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hold2dibber
07-31-2002, 05:52 PM
I've been thinking, particularly after KW and JM kept saying that the Sox are "re-shuffling" not "re-building" that maybe the team was trying to pare payroll in order to put itself in a position to add some front-line players next year to build of the current core. So I looked at the numbers.

The Sox will have divested themselves of the following salaries as of the end of this season:

Clayton $4.0 mm
Alomar $2.4 mm
Howry $1.6 mm
Lofton $1.25 mm
Durham $6.3 mm
Osuna (??? - I'm guessing about $2 mm)

That adds up to $17.55 mm trimmed from the payroll when next year rolls around. Contractual raises are due to Foulke ($2.0 mm); Graffinino ($100,000), C. Lee ($1.5 mm) and Maggs ($2.5 mm). That's $6.1 mm increase, for a net decrease of $11.45 mm.

Then Garland, Ginter, Glover, Biddle, Buehrle, Paul, Rowand and Wright will have their 2003 salaries determined by the club. Konerko, MJ, Ritchie and Parque are arbitration eligible. If the Sox do the right thing and tie up Buehrle and PK for about 5 years each, the raises for those two alone would probably eat up anywhere from $6 - $10 mm of the net decrease. The raises to the other guys would probably mean about another $1 - $2 mm. (Does anyone know if a player can actually earn less than his prior year's salary via arbitration? It seems to me that Parque and Ritchie should be in line for decreases, not increases.)

So if the current roster stays exactly the same, next year's payroll will probably be somewhere between this year's payroll and up to about $4.5 mm less. And with all the bitching and moaning that we've been hearing from KW about "not being able to spend a quarter when you only have a nickel" and the complaining about attendance, it is unlikely, me thinks, that the Sox are in fact paring payroll so that they can make some big moves next winter. It is much more likely that they are paring payroll just so they can stay at or slightly below the current payroll without adding anyone significant. The variables, I suppose are (1) a new CBA which provides extra $ to the Sox that they could spend to increase payroll; or (2) trades - the most likely candidates appear to be Foulke, Lee, and Valentin, based upon what they'll earn next year.

My conclusion is that "re-shuffling" means the same as "rebuilding" - that is, bringing in minor league players to take the place of departing high cost veterans.

Daver
07-31-2002, 05:55 PM
Osuna is under contract for next year.

Tragg
07-31-2002, 06:18 PM
Shouldn't we save another $3.5 million by exchanging clayton for a million dollar shortstop with similar skills (if not better)?

Mathew
07-31-2002, 06:21 PM
Originally posted by Tragg
Shouldn't we save another $3.5 million by exchanging clayton for a million dollar shortstop with similar skills (if not better)?

Naaa we'll pay him more.

LongDistanceFan
07-31-2002, 07:32 PM
how much has clayton cost the sox since he was acquired? maybe i should say that kw has cost with his savy trade?

Daver
07-31-2002, 07:34 PM
million dollars.Originally posted by LongDistanceFan
how much has clayton cost the sox since he was acquired? maybe i should say that kw has cost with his savy trade?



Nine million dollars.

dougs78
07-31-2002, 10:11 PM
I have a couple clarifications/questions etc about this post. I don't know if these are facts, but as far as I know they are true.

1. I recall reading that Howry would make 3.2 million next year.
2. Maggs should go from 6 mil to 10 mil....so thats 4 million raise
3. PK should get a goood raise in arbitration.
4. Buehrle will still not make too much, because of his level of experience. Unless we decide to sign him up long term.

Point is realistically, our payroll should be somewhat lower than this year...but I don't know if it will be significantly lower. I'd like to believe that we will be spending some of this extra money (whatever the total is) on a starting pitcher. I don't have any idea who is available. But it only makes sense that we go after something at one of our 3 (maybe 4) weak positions.

I rank these in order of their needed improvement

1. Starting Pitching
2. Catcher
3. Center Field
4. Starting Pitching

Daver
07-31-2002, 10:15 PM
There is a thread about the available FA's for next year,the pickings for pitching is slim at best.

MisterB
08-01-2002, 01:58 AM
Originally posted by dougs78
I have a couple clarifications/questions etc about this post. I don't know if these are facts, but as far as I know they are true.

1. I recall reading that Howry would make 3.2 million next year.

Howry is due $1.6M next year and has a 2004 option for $1.6M.

2. Maggs should go from 6 mil to 10 mil....so thats 4 million raise

Ordonez goes from $6.5M to $9M next year ($2.5M raise), and then to $14M for '04

baggio202
08-01-2002, 08:29 AM
if we take williams at his word then here is how i see next years payroll....he said we needed 2.3 million in attendance to hit the break even point on our 57 million dollar budget....we are gonna come in maybe at 1.8 million (if there is no strike)..thats 22% under our target number...if we multiply .78 x 57 million we come up with 44.46 million....now not all of the budget comes from tickets sales , concession and soviegners sold at the park(cable deals , merchandise sold away from the park)...im not sure what percentage to add to that..so lets split the differece between 57 and 44 million and figure our payroll next year will be no higher than 50 -51 million tops

this is just my opinion based on kenny math but when i look to see who will be here next year and who wont i always try and set my payroll at 50 million..

one thing i think we all can agree on...any free agents we sign will be of the fringe variety..no one over a million dollars...

hold2dibber
08-01-2002, 08:37 AM
Originally posted by baggio202
if we take williams at his word then here is how i see next years payroll....he said we needed 2.3 million in attendance to hit the break even point on our 57 million dollar budget....we are gonna come in maybe at 1.8 million (if there is no strike)..thats 22% under our target number...if we multiply .78 x 57 million we come up with 44.46 million....now not all of the budget comes from tickets sales , concession and soviegners sold at the park(cable deals , merchandise sold away from the park)...im not sure what percentage to add to that..so lets split the differece between 57 and 44 million and figure our payroll next year will be no higher than 50 -51 million tops

this is just my opinion based on kenny math but when i look to see who will be here next year and who wont i always try and set my payroll at 50 million..

one thing i think we all can agree on...any free agents we sign will be of the fringe variety..no one over a million dollars...

I'm guessing you're probably right, unless a new collective bargaining agreement helps fill the Sox' coffers with George Steinbrenner money (which, I think, is unlikely). As I've said elsewhere, the only way the Sox are contenders next year is if several of the young pitchers (Garland, Wright, Biddle, Ginter, Glover) really turn the corner in a big way.