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View Full Version : Viciedo vs. Hayward


johnnyg83
04-01-2013, 11:17 AM
I was watching MLB TV yesterday and they were predicting MVPs and I think it was Eric Byrnes who picked Heyward to finish 3rd. Is the league still super high on this guy?

Or is this a case of the media refusing to let go of someone they hyped so hard? Don't get me wrong Heyward's a nice ballplayer but MVP?

He seemed to me a better fielding range/more athletic version of Tank.

Their splits last year:

Heyward: .269/27/82 in 651 PAs
Tank: .255/25/78 in 543 PAs

OPS is 70 points in favor of Heyward

kittle42
04-01-2013, 12:27 PM
OPS is 70 points in favor of Heyward

And.....end of discussion.

shes
04-01-2013, 03:52 PM
Hayward is much better than Dayan and all signs point to a huge breakout season from him, although if anyone from the Braves is an MVP candidate this year I believe it'll be Justin Upton.

blandman
04-01-2013, 04:43 PM
And.....end of discussion.

Naw, they're like statistically the same. Didn't you see the RBI stats?

RKMeibalane
04-01-2013, 04:45 PM
Naw, they're like statistically the same. Didn't you see the RBI stats?

Munch, do you still work with UICJason?

blandman
04-01-2013, 06:01 PM
Munch, do you still work with UICJason?

Haha...I do.

RKMeibalane
04-01-2013, 06:02 PM
Haha...I do.

Does he miss this place?

Tragg
04-01-2013, 06:02 PM
OPS is 70 points in favor of Heyward

That's a big gap.

blandman
04-01-2013, 06:03 PM
Does he miss this place?

I'm pretty sure he's a Cubs fan, so I'm gonna assume not. I don't see him too often (big campus), but I'll ask him next time I see him.

johnnyg83
04-01-2013, 06:24 PM
I'm going to belabor this, mea culpa.

If you give Viciedo another 100 PAs to match heyward last year he's at .255/30/92 or so .... And PK and Dunn aren't stretching bases for runs in front of him.

But my point was more about Heyward being flavor of the month and now settling into good ball player-ville.

Not the next Willie Mays.

DSpivack
04-01-2013, 09:00 PM
I'm going to belabor this, mea culpa.

If you give Viciedo another 100 PAs to match heyward last year he's at .255/30/92 or so .... And PK and Dunn aren't stretching bases for runs in front of him.

But my point was more about Heyward being flavor of the month and now settling into good ball player-ville.

Not the next Willie Mays.
And Viciedo still lags behind Heyward greatly in OPS. In the minors, Viciedo's career OPS was .780 and Heyward .900, and Heyward mostly was younger than Viciedo. There's really no comparison between the two of them. I don't remember anyone ever comparing Heyward to Willie Mays, nor calling him the flavor of the month, just one of the top prospects in baseball who is now a very good, young player. Last season at 23 Viciedo put up an OPS+ of 96, Heyward 116 at 22; career-wise, their OPS+ are 97 for Viciedo and 116 for Heyward (to say anything of WAR, where Heyward also dwarfs Viciedo). There's not much to compare between the two and all of the above is solely on the offensive side (besides WAR). Heyward is also the much better player defensively.

johnnyg83
04-02-2013, 12:12 AM
And Viciedo still lags behind Heyward greatly in OPS. In the minors, Viciedo's career OPS was .780 and Heyward .900, and Heyward mostly was younger than Viciedo. There's really no comparison between the two of them. I don't remember anyone ever comparing Heyward to Willie Mays, nor calling him the flavor of the month, just one of the top prospects in baseball who is now a very good, young player. Last season at 23 Viciedo put up an OPS+ of 96, Heyward 116 at 22; career-wise, their OPS+ are 97 for Viciedo and 116 for Heyward (to say anything of WAR, where Heyward also dwarfs Viciedo). There's not much to compare between the two and all of the above is solely on the offensive side (besides WAR). Heyward is also the much better player defensively.

His nickname is the "J-Hey Kid" so Willy Mays comparisons may not be fair but they're inevitable. And when he came up, he was hyped to the bejesus by Bristol. I think he homered in his first AB or game and they were doing break-ins in programming to see his ABs. I do not recall this for certain, so I'm willing to be proven incorrect. But if true, that, to me, is OVER-hyped.

And I acknowledged in my first post about the OPS difference, but the rest of the batting line is pretty damn similar. So don't tell me there's no comparison. There is. And not only is there a comparison, it's remarkably close! Outside of OPS and fielding -- both of which I tipped my hat to in the original post.

Again, for those not picking it up. My point is NOT that Viciedo and Heyward are the same player but that this dude who was so hyped, has turned in one good, and no great seasons and that -- at a GLANCE -- have some traditional batting line comparisons to Viciedo.

Maybe I'm being overly sensitive, but I used to contribute money to this board and then I found the contributors too nasty to justify it, now I'm on the verge of abandoning it. I've been around since 2004 and the know-it-all-ness and smug baloney of this site sometimes reminds me of a North Side board. I think I'll say goodbye to all for a while.

Go Whitesox!

CoopaLoop
04-02-2013, 12:34 AM
lol casual mention of 70 point difference in OPS like it was a minor footnote.

TDog
04-02-2013, 12:41 AM
lol casual mention of 70 point difference in OPS like it was a minor footnote.

If you're using it to argue what the two might do in the future, it might turn out to be a minor footnote.

doublem23
04-02-2013, 11:00 AM
If you're using it to argue what the two might do in the future, it might turn out to be a minor footnote.

Uh, what? I'm as big a Dayan Viciedo homer as there is around here, but even I'm willing to admit Heyward at this point, every point prior, and likely every point in the future, is a far superior, all-around better player than Viciedo.

blandman
04-02-2013, 11:52 AM
His nickname is the "J-Hey Kid" so Willy Mays comparisons may not be fair but they're inevitable. And when he came up, he was hyped to the bejesus by Bristol. I think he homered in his first AB or game and they were doing break-ins in programming to see his ABs. I do not recall this for certain, so I'm willing to be proven incorrect. But if true, that, to me, is OVER-hyped.

And I acknowledged in my first post about the OPS difference, but the rest of the batting line is pretty damn similar. So don't tell me there's no comparison. There is. And not only is there a comparison, it's remarkably close! Outside of OPS and fielding -- both of which I tipped my hat to in the original post.

Again, for those not picking it up. My point is NOT that Viciedo and Heyward are the same player but that this dude who was so hyped, has turned in one good, and no great seasons and that -- at a GLANCE -- have some traditional batting line comparisons to Viciedo.

Maybe I'm being overly sensitive, but I used to contribute money to this board and then I found the contributors too nasty to justify it, now I'm on the verge of abandoning it. I've been around since 2004 and the know-it-all-ness and smug baloney of this site sometimes reminds me of a North Side board. I think I'll say goodbye to all for a while.

Go Whitesox!

Acknowledging the difference in OPS and understanding what it means are two entirely different concepts. If you understood what it meant, you wouldn't have made the thread.

I'm sorry you feel you're being attacked, but maybe in the future listen to what others are saying and then do a little research instead of being sensitive about it. You're beyond off-base with the point you're trying to make. So incredibly off base, my first thought was this thread was a gag. If anything, people in this thread are being too nice to you.

TDog
04-02-2013, 12:14 PM
Uh, what? I'm as big a Dayan Viciedo homer as there is around here, but even I'm willing to admit Heyward at this point, every point prior, and likely every point in the future, is a far superior, all-around better player than Viciedo.

I have no idea what Heyward will do this year. He may have a breakout season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't. Most who expect Heyward to have a breakout season are going by the hype that greeted him into the league. I expect that this year, like just about every year, there will be breakout seasons from players who weren't expected to have them.

And I stand by what I posted. If Viciedo does better than Heyward this year, the statistical differences between the two during their initial seasons will be a minor footnote.

doublem23
04-02-2013, 12:34 PM
Most who expect Heyward to have a breakout season are going by the hype that greeted him into the league.

Yes, that is generally what rational, intelligent people do; study evidence, both empirical and theoretical, and make educated predictions based on these observations.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQlny_qacdhd0S0DmDALReV4CucPXl_T L25ZtAojo9OsFpNjqUvIg

ron_j_galt
04-02-2013, 12:50 PM
The difference between Viciedo and Heyward is:

1. Start with Viciedo's MLB career batting line
2. Add 968 PA with a .258/.378/.456 slash line

Comparisons in OPS are misleading for these two, because their SLGs are similar but their OBPs are not. I don't see how Viciedo can make a dent in the OBP difference.

List (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=fCWjo) of players with career starts similar to Heyward's PA and OBP which may help resolve whether Heyward is appropriately hyped.

Domeshot17
04-02-2013, 01:12 PM
This is kind of a silly thread. Tank is a solid player, but he is not at the level Heyward is, nor does he have that kind of potential.

Especially when you factor in Heyward is a plus defender with a plus arm and runs very well. Tank has a cannon for an arm, but he is simply servicable (overstatement?) in LF.

If GM's were given a chance to draft their teams from scratch, Heyward would go in the top 3 rounds, likely in the top 50 picks. Tank might be a top 10 round pick, but thats a coinflip.

kittle42
04-02-2013, 06:34 PM
Yet another thread showing a lack of understanding of stats.