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View Full Version : Are we really going into the season with no veteran catcher?


ohiosoxfan
02-11-2013, 09:33 AM
I don't have a big problem with giving Tyler Flowers a shot to show what he can do as the starting catcher. . .BUT I am really surprised that we didn't sign a veteran catcher as a backup. I know Gimenez is a lefthanded hitter, but I figured that with all the veteran backup catchers out there as free agents that one would find his way onto our roster. But with Barajas signing with Arizona over the weekend, it looks like Matt Treanor is the only FA left out there.

What is Ramon Castro doing these days? With a year off, he should be well rested.

SephClone89
02-11-2013, 09:42 AM
What is Ramon Castro doing these days? With a year off, he should be well rested.

Signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers.

ohiosoxfan
02-11-2013, 10:43 AM
Signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers.

Thought he might have retired. . . another one we missed out on.

amsteel
02-11-2013, 11:04 AM
We're also going into the season with a DH that Ks or HRs, an LF that can't BB, a CF that's a career AAAAer until last year, and a soft hitting 2B who's time is almost up.

Every team is flawed, and I'm as excited to talk about tangible baseball topics as the next guy, but there are some things that aren't worrying about until late April/May when we actually have some samples to study.

LoveYourSuit
02-11-2013, 12:17 PM
As Sox fans we need to be ready once again for a season full of quality start loses by the pitching staff.

blandman
02-11-2013, 12:20 PM
As Sox fans we need to be ready once again for a season full of quality start loses by the pitching staff.

Hey now suit, leave the negativity to the experts!

Won't matter because it's not like our pitching staff is gonna put up many quality starts.

SEE! That's how to be negative!

Lip Man 1
02-11-2013, 12:23 PM
Am very, very surprised the Sox haven't done more to this point.

For right now, Hahn is taking a chance, we'll see how it turns out. Apparently all his talk about things in the works around Sox-fest time were simply BS.

Not a good start by him in my opinion.

Lip

Noneck
02-11-2013, 01:27 PM
Lip,

Maybe it wasnt bs but just a reality check when he found out that the Sox dont have anyone they can afford to give up to get someone worth a darn. The Sox system is quite thin and the players with worth are needed for this season. After they decided not to go deep in FA this year, playing with what they had was their only option.

DeadMoney
02-11-2013, 01:28 PM
Am very, very surprised the Sox haven't done more to this point.

For right now, Hahn is taking a chance, we'll see how it turns out. Apparently all his talk about things in the works around Sox-fest time were simply BS.

Not a good start by him in my opinion.

Lip

I'm willing to let this off-season go.

I just think that this past off-season's FA class was pretty top heavy and fairly light after that. I really don't there there was much there for the Sox.

On top of that, we all know where the Sox Minor League system stands. The system doesn't - and won't - get fixed by dealing off prospects (no matter the perceived holes a team has).

When you look at the biggest reasons that the team spent 150+ days in First Place last year - pitching, defense and not beating themselves - none of the key players in that have really changed (and we improved defensively at C).

I'm not supporting the decision to do much pretty much nothing this off-season, but I certainly understand it.

Falstaff
02-11-2013, 01:47 PM
I don't have a big problem with giving Tyler Flowers a shot to show what he can do as the starting catcher. . .BUT I am really surprised that we didn't sign a veteran catcher as a backup. I know Gimenez is a lefthanded hitter, but I figured that with all the veteran backup catchers out there as free agents that one would find his way onto our roster. But with Barajas signing with Arizona over the weekend, it looks like Matt Treanor is the only FA left out there.

What is Ramon Castro doing these days? With a year off, he should be well rested.
I am thinking its time for Sandy Alomar to return to the White Sox. Its been a few years since we relied on him, should be fresh. Also maybe Carlton Fisk will get some kind of community service for the cornfield incident, and be required to catch one game a week? Grasping at straws, but yeah, we need vet backup. Wasn't Hank Allen a BP catcher?

russ99
02-11-2013, 02:13 PM
I just think that this past off-season's FA class was pretty top heavy and fairly light after that. I really don't there there was much there for the Sox.

Have to disagree with that in part. Currently our bench is Gimenez, Sanchez, Danks and Wise, and there were surely inexpensive FA's available to improve on that.

I have to wonder if Hahn is taking a wait and see approach to clear some of Kenny's bad contracts off the books in 2 years without adding any other major commitments so he can make more of a splash with more to spend when Paul, Dunn, Rios and Peavy are off the books. And if any of the kids turn into stars, that's even better.

shingo10
02-11-2013, 02:14 PM
If this team comes out and tanks I will be more upset than at any point in my time as a Sox fan...there has been very little effort to address any of our needs this offseason. It is very frustrating. Its like they just want to stay in a perpetual state of mediocrity...do something Hahn!

DSpivack
02-11-2013, 02:46 PM
It does appear, however, that we will be going into the season with quite a few veteran kvetchers.

doublem23
02-11-2013, 02:56 PM
If this team comes out and tanks I will be more upset than at any point in my time as a Sox fan...there has been very little effort to address any of our needs this offseason. It is very frustrating. Its like they just want to stay in a perpetual state of mediocrity...do something Hahn!

I'm really not sure how much more anyone could have expected the Sox do to this offseason. Payroll's already stretched thin and the farm system is absolutely atrocious, there's not much wiggle room. But they will be chipping $32 and $41 million of salaries off the books in the next two years so there will be some money then, and hopefully Hahn is a little more proactive at building something in the minors.

This team is in really bad shape right now, it's definitely going to be muliyear process.

DeadMoney
02-11-2013, 03:26 PM
I'm really not sure how much more anyone could have expected the Sox do to this offseason. Payroll's already stretched thin and the farm system is absolutely atrocious, there's not much wiggle room. But they will be chipping $32 and $41 million of salaries off the books in the next two years so there will be some money then, and hopefully Hahn is a little more proactive at building something in the minors.

This team is in really bad shape right now, it's definitely going to be muliyear process.

Exactly.

For all of the people saying they didn't do enough... What did you want/expect them to do this off-season?

I know a lot of the criticism comes from not filling up the catcher spot with a veteran and not getting a left-handed bat. And in turn, many jump on not re-upping with Pierzynski as the evidence of the team not doing enough this off-season (which would've filled both holes). Well, another year of AJ at $7.5M is a $7.5M they couldn't have paid Peavy/Floyd/Lindstrom/Keppinger. On top of that, they would've set themselves back another year in finding out if Flowers can offensively contribute at this level.

Again, I'm not supporting the decisions made this off-season, but I understand. With significant money coming off of the books over the next two seasons, it certainly seems like they let Hahn transition into the GM role during an off-season with which they had little flexibility.

I'll admit, there isn't a lot to be overly excited about with the 2013 team, but I'm just trying to accept the following and hope for the best...
This team spent 126 days in First Place last season. And, nearly the same team adds a hopefully healthy Danks, a strong bullpen arm in Lindstrom, a 3B who can't be any worse than what we saw for 6 months (sans a 2-3 week period), and the continued development of LF (who's still only 23 years old), 2B (at that hopefully special breakout age of 26-27), SP #1, SP #4, SP #5, and a very young bullpen. We lost a big LH bat and offensive force at catcher, but replaced him with a sound defensive replacement who most would argue calls a better game.

blandman
02-11-2013, 03:36 PM
This team is in really bad shape right now, it's definitely going to be muliyear process.

Reading this board, I thought we were World Series bound. This is the most level-headed thing anyone's said in a while.

Cue the negative post bashing...

gobears1987
02-11-2013, 03:40 PM
Rebuilding is going to be a multi-year process. We'll stink this year (next year too), but if the right move are made I can live with it.

doublem23
02-11-2013, 03:46 PM
Reading this board, I thought we were World Series bound. This is the most level-headed thing anyone's said in a while.

Cue the negative post bashing...

:rolleyes: Oh ****ing please. I would say the vast majority of posters here realize the Sox are at best, on paper, the 2nd best team in the division and nowhere near the leader board for favorites in the A.L. There is, however, a gulf between a realistic view of this team and whatever nutbag, over the top, depressing melodrama you've been peddling i.e. Sale's arm IS DEFINITELY GOING TO EXPLODE because brainiac scouts say it will (no mention those same scouts once upon a time deemed Mark Prior to have "perfect mechanics") and Dayan Viciedo needs to have his swing completely rebuilt at the AAA level. Give me a break. Just because people don't think this team is the train wreck you've been trying to tell us it is, doesn't mean they have unrealistically wild expectations.

blandman
02-11-2013, 03:55 PM
:rolleyes: Oh ****ing please. I would say the vast majority of posters here realize the Sox are at best, on paper, the 2nd best team in the division and nowhere near the leader board for favorites in the A.L. There is, however, a gulf between a realistic view of this team and whatever nutbag, over the top, depressing melodrama you've been peddling i.e. Sale's arm IS DEFINITELY GOING TO EXPLODE because brainiac scouts say it will (no mention those same scouts once upon a time deemed Mark Prior to have "perfect mechanics") and Dayan Viciedo needs to have his swing completely rebuilt at the AAA level. Give me a break. Just because people don't think this team is the train wreck you've been trying to tell us it is, doesn't mean they have unrealistically wild expectations.

I think we'll finish second too. :shrug:

I just feel the gap between first and second is a lot larger than people are realizing.

Edit: oh, and viciedo sucks.

doublem23
02-11-2013, 04:00 PM
I just feel the gap between first and second is a lot larger than people are realizing.

Yawn, I heard that same line in February 2012, too.

blandman
02-11-2013, 05:03 PM
Yawn, I heard that same line in February 2012, too.

Not from me (I wasn't here). There was a gap last year. But this offseason the Tigers went out and got a lot better. And we got a little worse. So...yeah. I don't really feel my evaluations are negative so much as they are realistic. Saying we've got a very small chance of winning the division is only negative if you aren't aware of the talent levels of the respective teams. If people call me negative, I don't mind because in truth it says worlds more about them than it does about me.

LoveYourSuit
02-11-2013, 05:45 PM
Yawn, I heard that same line in February 2012, too.

The Sox will be much better than people are giving credit because of their pitching.

The thing to see is will the Tigers play like team they are on paper?

They didn't do it last year and left the division open for our taking. And we all know more than anyone how you can't win a division by having the best paper roster.

Have to play the games.

Mr. Jinx
02-11-2013, 06:18 PM
I'm really not sure how much more anyone could have expected the Sox do to this offseason. Payroll's already stretched thin and the farm system is absolutely atrocious, there's not much wiggle room. But they will be chipping $32 and $41 million of salaries off the books in the next two years so there will be some money then, and hopefully Hahn is a little more proactive at building something in the minors.

This team is in really bad shape right now, it's definitely going to be muliyear process.

Here's the thing I don't understand with that line of thinking, which seems to be a majority view on the matter. If we are in that bad of shape, why did we re-sign Peavy then? You could save an additional $29 million that way if we really aren't going to go all out to try and win the division. This isn't basketball or football where there is a real salary cap. If the Sox have their own personal salary cap in mind, why not be under it now, pocket the extra cash, and then use it to go over their personal cap in 2 years then? It isn't like the money disappears if they don't spend it this year. I'm not advocating a full rebuild, but that signing doesn't seem to fit the narrative of a team waiting around for contracts to come off the books.

doublem23
02-11-2013, 06:19 PM
Here's the thing I don't understand with that line of thinking, which seems to be a majority view on the matter. If we are in that bad of shape, why did we re-sign Peavy then? You could save an additional $29 million that way if we really aren't going to go all out to try and win the division. This isn't basketball or football where there is a real salary cap. If the Sox have their own personal salary cap in mind, why not be under it now, pocket the extra cash, and then use it to go over their personal cap in 2 years then? It isn't like the money disappears if they don't spend it this year. I'm not advocating a full rebuild, but that signing doesn't seem to fit the narrative of a team waiting around for contracts to come off the books.

Because they know the team has to be somewhat competitive to draw.

The Cubs are already arguably the more exciting team in Chicago NOW, just imagine if the Sox went out and punted the next 2-3 seasons in the hope of rebuilding. Hello 15K per night!

Extending Peavy two years and keeping the flicker of hope alive they might catch lightning in a bottle doesn't really change the long term plans, IMO. And anyways, its not like Peavy is keeping some young stud SP buried in Charlotte. Somebody's gotta pitch every fifth day.

Noneck
02-11-2013, 06:39 PM
Here's the thing I don't understand with that line of thinking, which seems to be a majority view on the matter. If we are in that bad of shape, why did we re-sign Peavy then? You could save an additional $29 million that way if we really aren't going to go all out to try and win the division. This isn't basketball or football where there is a real salary cap. If the Sox have their own personal salary cap in mind, why not be under it now, pocket the extra cash, and then use it to go over their personal cap in 2 years then? It isn't like the money disappears if they don't spend it this year. I'm not advocating a full rebuild, but that signing doesn't seem to fit the narrative of a team waiting around for contracts to come off the books.


The Sox are gambling that they will be in the hunt the next few years. Peavy is one of the pieces they hope will keep them in the hunt. If the team tanks, Peavy can be traded, the only way the Sox lose is if them team tanks and Peavy gets hurt or just plain stinks.

shingo10
02-11-2013, 07:41 PM
The sad thing is that we don't really have a choice between rebuilding or not...there isn't an alternative to rebuilding that I can see. We just have to kind of watch this thing fizzle out and then hope by that time we have more options. Frustrating.

Pitching and defense can take a team a long way as we saw last year but at some point there has to be some hitting too. And being able to score with RISP.

blandman
02-11-2013, 08:46 PM
The sad thing is that we don't really have a choice between rebuilding or not...there isn't an alternative to rebuilding that I can see. We just have to kind of watch this thing fizzle out and then hope by that time we have more options. Frustrating.

Pitching and defense can take a team a long way as we saw last year but at some point there has to be some hitting too. And being able to score with RISP.


Eh...there's tradable pieces on this club and teams always pay more at the deadline. If the team tanks, Peavy, Gavin, Konerko, Thornton, and possibly even Rios (if he has another strong year) could all fetch some decent prospects.

Mr. Jinx
02-11-2013, 09:07 PM
Because they know the team has to be somewhat competitive to draw.

The Cubs are already arguably the more exciting team in Chicago NOW, just imagine if the Sox went out and punted the next 2-3 seasons in the hope of rebuilding. Hello 15K per night!

Extending Peavy two years and keeping the flicker of hope alive they might catch lightning in a bottle doesn't really change the long term plans, IMO. And anyways, its not like Peavy is keeping some young stud SP buried in Charlotte. Somebody's gotta pitch every fifth day.

15k per night means I less traffic, cheaper seats, and less *******s around me at the game, sign me up!

Seriously though, I suppose it does keep a bit of hope alive.

RKMeibalane
02-11-2013, 09:22 PM
Am very, very surprised the Sox haven't done more to this point.

For right now, Hahn is taking a chance, we'll see how it turns out. Apparently all his talk about things in the works around Sox-fest time were simply BS.

Not a good start by him in my opinion.


http://www.isu.edu/kisufm/images/kisu-featured-program-large.jpg

"Or mine."

doublem23
02-12-2013, 02:03 AM
The sad thing is that we don't really have a choice between rebuilding or not...there isn't an alternative to rebuilding that I can see. We just have to kind of watch this thing fizzle out and then hope by that time we have more options. Frustrating.

Pitching and defense can take a team a long way as we saw last year but at some point there has to be some hitting too. And being able to score with RISP.

I really don't think the Sox need to go into a full blown, bottom out rebuild. With over $70 million coming off the books over the next two seasons there is going to be plenty of payroll flexibility for Hahn to work with and in his time as AGM and now GM he's shown some pretty nice creativity to work deals that maximize the team's resources.

mahagga73
02-12-2013, 11:21 AM
Am very, very surprised the Sox haven't done more to this point.

For right now, Hahn is taking a chance, we'll see how it turns out. Apparently all his talk about things in the works around Sox-fest time were simply BS.

Not a good start by him in my opinion.

Lip
I agree, I don't see where he has done anything to improve the team at all except for signing the relief pitcher from Arizona. He must be banking on a lot of assumptions this year.

DSpivack
02-12-2013, 01:31 PM
I agree, I don't see where he has done anything to improve the team at all except for signing the relief pitcher from Arizona. He must be banking on a lot of assumptions this year.

Jeff Keppinger should be a big improvement at 3B.

blandman
02-12-2013, 02:08 PM
Jeff Keppinger should be a big improvement at 3B.

Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

doublem23
02-12-2013, 02:17 PM
Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

SoxNation05
02-12-2013, 02:30 PM
C - Production will decrease. (-2)
Flowers' projection: .235/.315 22 HRs 56 RBIs
Pierzynski's 2012: .278/.326 27 HRs 78 RBIs

Flowers gets on base at clip higher than you would think. My projection may be a little generous but I don't know if we are losing the huge amount of offense everyone refers to. We will miss AJ's clutchness and hitting w/ RISP (2012: .316)

1B- Production will remain about the same. (+0)
Konerko's Projection: .285/.360 28 HRs 85 RBIs
Konerko's 2012: .298/.371 26 HRs 75 RBIs

He will be healthier so his stats will improve but no one should expect him to hit the way he did early last year.

2B- Production will remain the same or improve slightly. (+.5)
Beckham's Projection: .245/.310 18 HRs 65 RBIs
Beckham's 2012: .234/.296 16 HRs 60 RBIs

His discipline has been horrible and I hope to see some improvement on it along with his ability to battle of off speed pitches. Aside from that, his BABIP makes him very unlucky and he should see improvement with an average BABIP

3B- Production will remain the same but add a little consistency. (+0)
Keppinger Projection: .290/.328 14 HRs 50 RBIs
Morel 2012: 35 games .177/.225 0 HRs 5 RBIs
Hudson 2012 at 3B: 89 At bats .169/.245 1 HR 11 RBIs
Youkilis 2012: 80 games .236/.346 15 HRs 46 RBIs

While we can't be sure what to expect from Keppinger our 3B production was horrible sans June/early July. I expect at least some consistency

SS- Production should improve slightly (+.5)
Ramirez's Projection: .275/.308 15 HRs 72 RBIs
Ramirez's 2012: .265/.287 9 HRs 73 RBIs

Last year was Alexei's worst statistical year to date. He only had through 2 HRs through June and posted his first OBP below .300. I think he will move a little closer to his career average

LF- Production should improve (+1)
Viciedo's Projection: .265/.320 28 HRs 81 RBIs
Viciedo's 2012: .255/.300 25 HRs 78 RBIs

Viciedo's AVG by month last year: .206, .351, .179, .256, .253, .221.
Terrible months show the inconsistency Viciedo dealt with in his first full season. With a second year with Manto and hopefully more consistency he should improve with time. Only turns 24 in March

CF Projection should stay the same (+0)
De Aza's projection: .278/ .344 10 HRs 54 RBI's
De Aza's 2012: .281/.349 9HRs 50 RBIs

De Aza's production should remain about the same barring an injury. I like the fact that his statistics are even from pre and post all star break splits. Bascially, once the scouting report was out on him, he adjusted too and didn't suffer.

RF Production should remain the same (+0)
Rios Projection: .290/ .326 26 HRs 82 RBIs
Rios 2012: .304/.334 25 HRs 91 RBIs

Rios is still only 31 so we should not see much decrease in his production. Suprisingly, Rios hit over .300 against RHP last year. Unless Rios head issues come back into play and he hits .200 again, he has the talent, ability and age to continue his production.

DH Production should remain about the same (+0)
Dunn's projection: .211/.346 42 HRs 103 RBIs
Dunn's 2012: .204/.333 41 HRs 96 RBIs

Dunn is a tough player to evaluate. I think we could expect the same production and I don't expect less. If anything he could get better but it's to expect the same.


Basically using these silly, rudimentary statistics one could project that we are probably going to have a very similar offensive projection as last year. An offense that was good for the 4th most runs in the AL. As long as we do not have any collapses we should be alright. People are a little too worried about our line up IMO. While we are not going to smash anyone out of the park, our pitching should keep us in the majority of the games.

DeadMoney
02-12-2013, 02:31 PM
Third wasn't the black hole everyone makes it out to be. It wasn't the black hole 2nd was, or LF was for stretches. It certainly wasn't the black hole we're going to have a C. And unless Keppinger is making up that difference between AJ's career season and black hole offense, it isn't even a wash.

'Holes' at C matter little. Below are the playoff teams from 2012 and the Catchers who played majority of the time for them (and their games started at C with their avg/obp/slug). Very few teams have the luxury of having an offensive threat at catcher and most elect to go with guys who are durable, and who are good defensively. One thing that sticks out on this list are guys with respectable OBPs. Flowers was a very high OBP threat in the minors (amassing a .391 career MiLB OBP) and my hope is that regular ABs in MLB put him at a respectable level OBP wise.

Yankees
R Martin 128 gms .211/.311/.403
C Stewart 54 gms .241/.292/.319

Baltimore
M Wieters 134 gms .249/.329/.435
T Teagarden 21 gms .158/.226/.316

Detroit
A Avila 113 gms .243/.352/.384
G Laird 56 gms .282/.337/.374

Oakland
K Suzuki 75 gms .218/.286/.536
D Norris 58 gms .201/.276/.349
G Kottaras 27 gms .212/.280/.471

Texas
M Napoli 72 gms .227/.343/.469
Y Torrealba 49 gms .236/.302/.342
G Soto 44 gms .196/.253/.338

Washington
J Flores 80 gms .213/.248/.329
K Suzuki 42 gms .267/.321/.404
W Ramos 24 gms .265/.354/.398

Atlanta
B McCann 114 gms .230/.300/.399
D Ross 54 gms .256/.321/.449

Cincinatti
R Hannigan 110 gms .274/.365/.338
D Mesoraco 53 gms .212/.288/.352
D Navarro 20 gms .290/.306/.449

St Louis
Y Molina 136 gms .315/.373/.501
T Cruz 47 gms .254/.291/.356

San Francisco
B Posey 114 gms .336/.408/.549
H Sanchez 56 gms .280/.295/.390

And while we know Flowers isn't going to produce the power numbers that AJ had last year, I think it's realistic to assume AJ wouldn't have come close to those either. The Rangers are paying $7.5M for an aging catcher (who's caught a boatload of innings in his career) for past performance. Flowers will be fine and I'll take the defensive uptick he's going to provide over any offensive holes he might add... Especially when considering the above list.

blandman
02-12-2013, 02:41 PM
What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

Okay, we're ****ed then! :o:

dickallen15
02-12-2013, 02:43 PM
I hope Hahn has a better plan for the back up catcher, however, if that turns out to be the biggest problem, the Sox will be in pretty good shape.

blandman
02-12-2013, 02:51 PM
'Holes' at C matter little. Below are the playoff teams from 2012 and the Catchers who played majority of the time for them (and their games started at C with their avg/obp/slug). Very few teams have the luxury of having an offensive threat at catcher and most elect to go with guys who are durable, and who are good defensively. One thing that sticks out on this list are guys with respectable OBPs. Flowers was a very high OBP threat in the minors (amassing a .391 career MiLB OBP) and my hope is that regular ABs in MLB put him at a respectable level OBP wise.

Yankees
R Martin 128 gms .211/.311/.403
C Stewart 54 gms .241/.292/.319

Baltimore
M Wieters 134 gms .249/.329/.435
T Teagarden 21 gms .158/.226/.316

Detroit
A Avila 113 gms .243/.352/.384
G Laird 56 gms .282/.337/.374

Oakland
K Suzuki 75 gms .218/.286/.536
D Norris 58 gms .201/.276/.349
G Kottaras 27 gms .212/.280/.471

Texas
M Napoli 72 gms .227/.343/.469
Y Torrealba 49 gms .236/.302/.342
G Soto 44 gms .196/.253/.338

Washington
J Flores 80 gms .213/.248/.329
K Suzuki 42 gms .267/.321/.404
W Ramos 24 gms .265/.354/.398

Atlanta
B McCann 114 gms .230/.300/.399
D Ross 54 gms .256/.321/.449

Cincinatti
R Hannigan 110 gms .274/.365/.338
D Mesoraco 53 gms .212/.288/.352
D Navarro 20 gms .290/.306/.449

St Louis
Y Molina 136 gms .315/.373/.501
T Cruz 47 gms .254/.291/.356

San Francisco
B Posey 114 gms .336/.408/.549
H Sanchez 56 gms .280/.295/.390

And while we know Flowers isn't going to produce the power numbers that AJ had last year, I think it's realistic to assume AJ wouldn't have come close to those either. The Rangers are paying $7.5M for an aging catcher (who's caught a boatload of innings in his career) for past performance. Flowers will be fine and I'll take the defensive uptick he's going to provide over any offensive holes he might add... Especially when considering the above list.


No one is saying you need that production from that particular position. But we GOT it last year. Unless we make it up somewhere, we aren't as good as last year. Period.

CoopaLoop
02-12-2013, 09:12 PM
Why do they need one?

Flowers is going to (as he should) get a full season's worth of at bats if he's good, bad or terrible.

RKMeibalane
02-12-2013, 09:29 PM
Why do they need one?

Flowers is going to (as he should) get a full season's worth of at bats if he's good, bad or terrible.

Catcher is a difficult position to play, because it requires many of the same defensive responsibilities common to the other positions, but it also mandates being able to work directly with the pitching and coaching staffs, which is not easy. As Flowers is a young catcher, I would guess Ventura and Cooper will probably call most of the pitches and relay signs to Tyler when he's behind the plate, but he still has to have a rapport with the pitchers, many of whom are used to working with AJ more than they are with him.

A. Cavatica
02-12-2013, 10:49 PM
Because they know the team has to be somewhat competitive to draw.

The Cubs are already arguably the more exciting team in Chicago NOW, just imagine if the Sox went out and punted the next 2-3 seasons in the hope of rebuilding. Hello 15K per night!

This should be split off into its own thread.

I know it's the conventional wisdom, but do the Sox and Cubs really compete for attendance?

I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell. I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.

The Sox attendance depends on how well the Sox do, and even if they're contending the Cub fans won't come to the park.

The Cubs attendance depends on how well the Cubs do. And tourism -- people come to see their ballpark, and pity them.

Nellie_Fox
02-13-2013, 12:55 AM
I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.I believe that. Can't prove it though.

SephClone89
02-13-2013, 07:46 AM
I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell.

I would. I understand the attitude otherwise, though. I went to a game at Wrigley this past August with my mother (her whole family are Cubs fans, and my aunt and uncle couldn't use their tickets) and enjoyed myself enough. The seats are bad, we were pretty close to a pole, etc, but as much as I enjoy the Cell, I like seeing baseball games in places besides the same ballpark over and over again. It's kind of refreshing. I'll probably take my mom to Wrigley again sometime this year--she's the only Cubs fan in our immediate family so she sometimes feels left out. No way do I overpay for them--I won't pay more than I would for the equivalent Sox tickets, and I'll try to make it a way to see a team or player I'm interested in or haven't seen before...

I do know some people who are kind of on the fence between Sox and Cubs who were all about the Sox in '05-'06 and were interested in the Cubs in '07-'08...I know plenty of people like this.

Hitmen77
02-13-2013, 10:51 AM
This should be split off into its own thread.

I know it's the conventional wisdom, but do the Sox and Cubs really compete for attendance?

I wouldn't take free tickets to Wrigley, and the Cub fans I know wouldn't take free tickets to the Cell. I don't believe there are a lot of casual baseball fans in Chicago who will go to the games of whichever team is playing well.

The Sox attendance depends on how well the Sox do, and even if they're contending the Cub fans won't come to the park.

The Cubs attendance depends on how well the Cubs do. And tourism -- people come to see their ballpark, and pity them.

I think they do. But it's not as simple as Sox fans going to Cubs games or vice versa. There are a few reasons for this:

1) For the true die-hards, what you describe above is correct. But, as hard as it is for us die-hards on this site to believe, not every potential customer in Chicagoland is a staunch die-hard Sox or Cubs fan. There are plenty of people who are casual fans who would go to both games and it really depends on which team is more exciting to watch.

2) I think a lot of fans' level of disgust really does depend on how the team across town is doing. If the Sox are winning 83 games and the Cubs are losing 100, then I think there is much less anger/apathy toward the team than if the Sox were winning 83 games and the Cubs were racking up multiple pennants. Likewise, Cubs fans are not exactly unfamiliar with losing, but in 2006, after the Sox championship, the Cubs suddenly started seeing empty seats at Wrigley. I think this prompted TribCo to go on a spending spree to put the Cubs back in the playoffs for 2007 and 08.

3) This is ultimately the most important one IMO: Sox success on the field has a long term affect on their market share in Chicago. Not every child is born into a die-hard family. Their loyalty is up for grabs. Chicago used to be more evenly split between Sox and Cubs. But the Sox moving to pay TV and the Cubs on WGN becoming a national darling beginning in 1984 totally tipped the Chicago market in the Cubs favor. We pretty much lost an entire generation to the Cubs. I think the Sox gained a lot more new fans in 2005, but they didn't keep up that success and they have let the wind out of the sails over the last 4 disappointing seasons and we've seen attendance decline as a result. At this point, the Sox market share is still pretty thin. Not as thin as it was in 1997, but not strong enough to withstand a long rebuilding process. Because of this, if the Sox started from scratch and went the route of fielding last place teams for a few years while the Cubs suddenly became a pennant contender, our fan base would take a huge hit.

TheVulture
02-13-2013, 01:59 PM
We're also going into the season with a DH that Ks or HRs, an LF that can't BB...

It blows my mind that Viciedo is always identified as the player on this team who can't draw walks. In his first full season, he drew a walk every 19.4 PA. Compare to established veterans like Rios, who drew walks at a rate of one per 24.7 PA, or Ramirez at 38.8. Still people argue Viciedo won't ever be an effective hitter based on his walk rate in his first full season as a full time major leaguer while claiming Rios is a solid choice as a third hitter when two out of the last four years he has put up numbers that make Viciedo look like Reggie Jackson in comparison.

TheVulture
02-13-2013, 02:00 PM
What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

Not to mention Youk's flag-pole-esque defense.

Oh, wait you did mention it. Apparently, my reading comprehension is going downhill!

TheVulture
02-13-2013, 02:12 PM
Why do they need one?

Flowers is going to (as he should) get a full season's worth of at bats if he's good, bad or terrible.

A full season at the catcher position still typically allows 30-40 starts for the backup at the most important position on the field. IMO, the backup catcher is the most important player on the bench. In the event of injury, catcher is probably the hardest player to replace as well. Maybe Gimenez is better than a Barajas type though, I doubt any of us has enough information on him to ascertain.

blandman
02-13-2013, 02:22 PM
It blows my mind that Viciedo is always identified as the player on this team who can't draw walks. In his first full season, he drew a walk every 19.4 PA. Compare to established veterans like Rios, who drew walks at a rate of one per 24.7 PA, or Ramirez at 38.8. Still people argue Viciedo won't ever be an effective hitter based on his walk rate in his first full season as a full time major leaguer while claiming Rios is a solid choice as a third hitter when two out of the last four years he has put up numbers that make Viciedo look like Reggie Jackson in comparison.

It has more to do with the K:BB ratio. None of those guys walk, but Viciedo K's like 5 times more than his miniscule walks. He has obvious trouble with strike zone judgement, and actually walks more because of it, because pitchers are more likely to throw pitches WAY out of the zone multiple times in an at bat. There's a better than decent chance it'll turn into a swing and miss.

blandman
02-13-2013, 02:25 PM
What? The Sox's 3B collectively hit .201/.286/.314 last season, easily the worst production at that position in the American League (league average - .261/.320/.420). And this is before you even consider Youkilis's non-existent defense for much of the 2nd half. The Sox 3B play was a complete disaster last season.

I joked about this earlier, but in his time Youk had what? Like 14 bombs and 48 rbi's or something like that? Despite everything, he actually carried the team for a portion of the middle of the summer.

TheVulture
02-13-2013, 02:40 PM
It has more to do with the K:BB ratio. None of those guys walk, but Viciedo K's like 5 times more than his miniscule walks. He has obvious trouble with strike zone judgement, and actually walks more because of it, because pitchers are more likely to throw pitches WAY out of the zone multiple times in an at bat. There's a better than decent chance it'll turn into a swing and miss.

If the claim is "a left fielder who can't walk", the K:BB ratio is irrelevant. Dunn has a far better K:BB ratio than Rios, but that doesn't mean Dunn doesn't strike out very much, certainly doesn't indicate he strikes out less than Rios.

blandman
02-13-2013, 02:50 PM
If the claim is "a left fielder who can't walk", the K:BB ratio is irrelevant. Dunn has a far better K:BB ratio than Rios, but that doesn't mean Dunn doesn't strike out very much, certainly doesn't indicate he strikes out less than Rios.

Vulture I think the point you're missing is that the pitches Viciedo sees when he walks are almost always more than six inches outside of the zone. This is a function of an extremely poor batting eye, not a good one.

dickallen15
02-13-2013, 02:50 PM
It has more to do with the K:BB ratio. None of those guys walk, but Viciedo K's like 5 times more than his miniscule walks. He has obvious trouble with strike zone judgement, and actually walks more because of it, because pitchers are more likely to throw pitches WAY out of the zone multiple times in an at bat. There's a better than decent chance it'll turn into a swing and miss.
So strikeouts do matter.

blandman
02-13-2013, 02:52 PM
So strikeouts do matter.

If you can't make contact and can't get on base...well, yeah? If you're hitting .300 or you're getting on base at an above average clip, then of course not.

dickallen15
02-13-2013, 03:18 PM
If you can't make contact and can't get on base...well, yeah? If you're hitting .300 or you're getting on base at an above average clip, then of course not.
Considering it was his first full season and he is only 23, he did OK. His .300 OBP was .033 less than Adam Dunn. So that is getting on base one less time every 33 plate appearances. One less time every 8 games and he struck out 100 times less.

blandman
02-13-2013, 03:55 PM
Considering it was his first full season and he is only 23, he did OK. His .300 OBP was .033 less than Adam Dunn. So that is getting on base one less time every 33 plate appearances. One less time every 8 games and he struck out 100 times less.

Well, Adam isn't the pinnacle (which shouldn't get an argument from many). But they have different issues. Adam's troubles are missing pitches in the zone, not zone judgement. Dayan's got decent bat speed. But he goes up there like his eyes are closed. He doesn't see many pitches over the plate, especially with strikes on him.

The real problem is numbers like his don't bode well when you talk about likelihood of improvement. Which is why so many scouts are down on him.

dickallen15
02-13-2013, 04:07 PM
The real problem is numbers like his don't bode well when you talk about likelihood of improvement.
I've heard this before. I'll take my chances on 23 year olds who hit 25 homers their first full year, and can go deep into right center.

There were 56 players that struck out more than Viciedo last season.

I wonder what you thought about Austin Jackson a year ago. Got on at about the same clip as Viciedo and struck out 50% more.

Carlos Lee was quite similar to Viciedo at the same age, although he got a few more hits, but less strikeouts, walks and homers.

blandman
02-13-2013, 04:34 PM
I've heard this before. I'll take my chances on 23 year olds who hit 25 homers their first full year, and can go deep into right center.

I wonder what you thought about Austin Jackson a year ago. Got on at about the same clip as Viciedo and struck out 50% more.

Carlos Lee was quite similar to Viciedo at the same age, although he got a few more hits, but less strikeouts, walks and homers.

You could have made that same argument about Beckham. Didn't make the scouts wrong. :shrug:

I'm not terribly familiar with Austin Jackson's struggles, but I'm pretty sure Caballo isn't really comparable. I think you're missing the big picture with Viciedo. He doesn't make enough contact, and that's because he doesn't see the ball (or his approach is such that he'd guessing). That's not something Caballo or anyone else I can think of dealt with.

WhiteSox5187
02-13-2013, 04:35 PM
There were 56 players that struck out more than Viciedo last season.

I wonder what you thought about Austin Jackson a year ago. Got on at about the same clip as Viciedo and struck out 50% more.

Carlos Lee was quite similar to Viciedo at the same age, although he got a few more hits, but less strikeouts, walks and homers.

I really don't understand why people are willing to give up on Viciedo. I don't think he's going to turn into Frank Thomas or anything and he might strike out a lot but the guy is still 23 years old and has a lot of raw power. He might not be the kind of guy we can build around offensively but it is waaaay too early to write him off.

blandman
02-13-2013, 04:38 PM
I really don't understand why people are willing to give up on Viciedo. I don't think he's going to turn into Frank Thomas or anything and he might strike out a lot but the guy is still 23 years old and has a lot of raw power. He might not be the kind of guy we can build around offensively but it is waaaay too early to write him off.

Probably because 23 years old and power are really not that much to go on?

I'm in the minority here, obviously, but there's a reason scouts weren't high on the kid to begin with. And his numbers are just something you don't see really ever (what with so little contact and so few walks) in someone that ends up sticking. He's got such good bat speed that it's really a shame that he has the approach he does. It's why I keep saying they need to send him down for a year and come up with a whole new approach. Or maybe get him some glasses.

Nellie_Fox
02-13-2013, 04:53 PM
Guys, please, if you screw up the quote function by deleting part of the quote commands while cutting out text, either click the edit button and go back and fix it, or if you don't know how, delete the whole post and do it over again. But don't let it sit there screwed up! If you can't do either, then DON'T cut quotes before posting them. Just leave them alone.

Also, if you see that someone has screwed up the quote function, DON'T quote the screwed up quote (unless you know how to patch it up as you go) because then quotes start getting attributed to posters who didn't make them. I just spent several minutes figuring out who really said which quotes and repairing them in a whole string of posts, and I shouldn't have to do that.

russ99
02-13-2013, 08:53 PM
Considering it was his first full season and he is only 23, he did OK.

Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.

dickallen15
02-14-2013, 06:50 AM
Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.

Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking. 23 year olds usually are what they are after their first full year. You are lucky if they improve at all.

spawn
02-14-2013, 10:08 AM
Getting tired of this excuse. He has 762 PA's over three years. He wasn't rookie-eligible last year.

When Dunn was 23, he hit 27/57 with a relatively close line to Viciedo of .215/.354/.465 (granted worse BA and better OPB) with more total PAs that Viciedo has now.

Conversely, when Frank was 23, he hit 32/109 and .318/.443/.553 with a handful more PA's that Viciedo has now.

That he's 23 has only a little bearing on his past vs. future performance, and I still doubt we'll see him hitting for average, with quality at-bats, plate patience and fewer K's anytime soon.

I'd be happy with any improvement.

I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.

blandman
02-14-2013, 10:30 AM
I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.

Spawn,

Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?

doublem23
02-14-2013, 10:39 AM
I don't think anyone here has claimed that Viciedo is the second coming of Frank Thomas, so to try to use him as a comparison to Thomas at 23 is a little disingenuous IMO. The fact is Viciedo has had one full MLB season under his belt, so it's really not fair to say that what we saw last season is all he is capable of. There is definitely room for improvement, and he may be capable.

Seriously. The idea that Viciedo may not live up to be the greatest right handed hitter in MLB history dooms him to certain fail is such over the top, drama queen nonsense.

Last year, we had people telling everyone how Dayan would never make it defensively in the Majors. He turned in one of the best years in the field at his position. The kid's going to be fine, people.

spawn
02-14-2013, 11:25 AM
Spawn,

Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?

I'm not even going to try to. I'm not projecting greatness for Viciedo, nor am I predicting he will be a bust of epic proportions. I really don't see the need to back a position I'm not even taking. Unlike you, I'm happy watching and not getting caught up in statistical analysis and doom and gloom predictions. :shrug:

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 01:03 PM
Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?

Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)

ohiosoxfan
02-14-2013, 01:09 PM
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)

How dare you let facts get in the way of an argument????

Nellie_Fox
02-14-2013, 02:15 PM
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQJjc2_xWQiZuOH2fyHqOYpb_e4mTxVy tbWUzg1bLAqUvd6SoRiHw

Well played, Vulture, well played.

russ99
02-14-2013, 02:16 PM
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K - 762 PA after his age 23 season.

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF) - 362 PA

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF) - 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP) - 377 PA

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA.

Nice try.

Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)


Bernie Carbo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carbobe01.shtml) (974)
Jim King (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingji01.shtml) (974)
Tommie Agee (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ageeto01.shtml) (972)
Phil Plantier (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plantph01.shtml) (970)
Mike Marshall (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marshmi02.shtml) (969)

Real scary hitters there...

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 02:20 PM
Joe Carter, age 23 : 0 BB, 21 K, 52 AB. Small sample size, but 0 to 21 while k'ing more than 40% of the time? Hopeless

Totals through age 24: 6.27 K/BB, 4.47 PA/K

Matt Williams: .202/.245/.455, 5.14 K/BB, 4.32 PA/K(led NL in RBI following season)

Derrek Lee: .206/.263/.326, 4.11 K/BB, 3.37 PA/K ('05 Batting Champ, 8 seasons of 70+ walks)

George Foster, age 22-24: .234/.304/.373 4.50 K/BB, 4.14 PA/K('77 NL MVP)

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 02:25 PM
Dayan Viciedo 762 PA after his age 23 season. Perhaps calling Viciedo up at age 21 was a bit early.

Willie Stargell - 362 PA - So getting his at bats in the minors somehow makes him more accomplished? Presumably, if he were called up at age 21 his ratios would be even worse.

Andre Dawson 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474 - None the less his numbers at age 23 are nearly identical to Viciedo's

Dave Parker 377 PA - again, he was instead batting in the minors

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard -
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA. Exactly. While Viciedo was playing in the majors, Howard was wiffing at a higher rate AT A-Level Minor league BALL. If a player fails at the major league level at age 23, certainly a player who hasn't reached AA and struck out 30% of the time IN A-BALL shouldn't have success at the majors either.

dickallen15
02-14-2013, 02:29 PM
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K - 762 PA after his age 23 season.

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF) - 362 PA

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF) - 1300+ PA, but was ROY the year before at .282/.326/.474

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP) - 377 PA

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP) - 591 PA (close)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)
- He was 24 in his first season with 42 PA.

Nice try.

Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)


Bernie Carbo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carbobe01.shtml) (974)
Jim King (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingji01.shtml) (974)
Tommie Agee (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ageeto01.shtml) (972)
Phil Plantier (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plantph01.shtml) (970)
Mike Marshall (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marshmi02.shtml) (969)
Real scary hitters there...
Through age 23. Bernie Carbo put up a 1.000 OPS as a 22 year old and was second in ROY voting. Plantier hit 34 homers and drove in 100 as a 24 year old, so Viciedo should be pretty good next year. Tommie Agee was Rookie of the Year when he was 23, with the White Sox. Mike Marshall made the All Star team as a 24 year old. Of course you also didn't want to go 2 more names down the list because those were Logan Morrison and Carlos Gonzalez.

You're embarrassing yourself.

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 02:39 PM
Viciedo's comparables through age 23 are: (source: Baseball Reference)


Bernie Carbo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carbobe01.shtml) (974)
Jim King (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingji01.shtml) (974)
Tommie Agee (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ageeto01.shtml) (972)
Phil Plantier (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plantph01.shtml) (970)
Mike Marshall (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marshmi02.shtml) (969)

Real scary hitters there...

George Foster comparable player age 23: Jim Gosger
Matt Williams: Pedro Garcia
Joe Carter: Jeffrey Hammonds
Jermaine Dye: Lee Walls
Paul Konerko: Bernie Carbo
Edgar Martinez(Borderline HOFer career .933 OPS), age 28: Dave Stapleton, career OPS .707. I'm pretty sure this is the first time Dave Stapleton has been mentioned in the same sentence as Edgar Martinez.

spawn
02-14-2013, 03:12 PM
There is some major pwnage going on in this thread... :popcorn:

blandman
02-14-2013, 03:44 PM
Dayan Viciedo - .255/.300/.444, 4.28 K/BB, 4.52 PA/K

Willie Stargell - .243/.290/.428, 4.47 K/BB, 3.85 PA/K (HOF)

Andre Dawson - .253/.299/.442, 4.26 K/BB, 5.15 PA/K (HOF)

Dave Parker - .282/.322/.409, 5.30 K/BB, 4.40 PA/K ('78 MVP)

Jermaine Dye - .252/.286/.394, 4.55 K/BB, 4.77 PA/K, ages 22-24 ('05 WS MVP)

Ryan Howard - horrid 3.63 PA/K at age 23...in high A ball. ('06 MVP)

Please include contact rates for comparison. This on its own doesn't not make them comparable. Not saying they're not comparable players, just noting that this is incomplete.

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 03:48 PM
Please include contact rates for comparison. This on its own doesn't not make them comparable. Not saying they're not comparable players, just noting that this is incomplete.
PA per K isn't a contact rate?

blandman
02-14-2013, 03:49 PM
PA per K isn't a contact rate?

No. It's its own statistic. What you're referring to is strikeout rate. Which isn't meaningless, but doesn't really tell the story of WHY someone is striking out as well.

TheVulture
02-14-2013, 03:53 PM
No. It's its own statistic. What you're referring to is strikeout rate. Which isn't meaningless, but doesn't really tell the story of WHY someone is striking out as well.

It's basically a different permutation of the same thing. PA/K vs. (AB-K)/AB. I don't see how one is more valid than the other or how AB-K/AB explains 'why' any more than PA/K.

Just to make you happy though:
Viciedo: 76.2%
Stargell: 72.0%

blandman
02-14-2013, 04:00 PM
It's basically a different permutation of the same thing. PA/K vs. (AB-K)/AB. I don't see how one is more valid than the other or how AB-K/AB explains 'why' any more than PA/K.

Just to make you happy though:
Viciedo: 76.2%
Stargell: 72.0%

I think we're talking about different things. I'm talking about contact vs. swing and miss. Maybe I am referring to it by the wrong name.

WhiteSox5187
02-14-2013, 04:10 PM
It's basically a different permutation of the same thing. PA/K vs. (AB-K)/AB. I don't see how one is more valid than the other or how AB-K/AB explains 'why' any more than PA/K.

Just to make you happy though:
Viciedo: 76.2%
Stargell: 72.0%

No he is talking about that one stat that proves his point that shows Dayan Viciedo sucks and will never contribute anything to a winning team. I forget what it's called.

blandman
02-14-2013, 04:42 PM
No he is talking about that one stat that proves his point that shows Dayan Viciedo sucks and will never contribute anything to a winning team. I forget what it's called.

What does this accomplish? I'm trying to see his point of view.

russ99
02-14-2013, 06:26 PM
Please include contact rates for comparison. This on its own doesn't not make them comparable. Not saying they're not comparable players, just noting that this is incomplete.

How is that comparable? I'm using the widely accepted BA/OBP/SLG numbers, K/AB is something another poster injected to make their argument relative, as if Viciedo striking out less will magically improve all his other subpar qualities as a hitter.

If you want to go with recent Cuban hitters, look at Betancourt at age 23, he was most compared to Viciedo when Dayan signed here.

Plus you can cherry pick stats all day. My initial point being that just because Viciedo is 23 and he only just played a full year is no reason to consider him a rookie and give him a pass. Or give him a pass ignoring his 1300 minor league at bats hopefully making him something he ain't - cause you love the long ball.

If I'm proved wrong and he blossoms into a good hitter, I'll happily eat crow.

tstrike2000
02-14-2013, 07:33 PM
The bottom line is we established that while Viciedo may not be the second coming of Frank Thomas, he has a lot of upside. Manto helping Dayan with his timing mechanism is just the first step to what could be a really good year. I'm a little skeptical of the offense as a whole but cautiously optimistic at what Dayan's going to do.

CoopaLoop
02-14-2013, 09:08 PM
Catcher is a difficult position to play, because it requires many of the same defensive responsibilities common to the other positions, but it also mandates being able to work directly with the pitching and coaching staffs, which is not easy. As Flowers is a young catcher, I would guess Ventura and Cooper will probably call most of the pitches and relay signs to Tyler when he's behind the plate, but he still has to have a rapport with the pitchers, many of whom are used to working with AJ more than they are with him.

Pitchers already have said they love working with Flowers. I am not worried about him "calling a game" at all. Only thing with Flowers is can he hit enough to stay in the big leagues?

And anyone who enjoys using the baseball is not an offensive sport can save it.

mzh
02-14-2013, 09:38 PM
Please include contact rates for comparison. This on its own doesn't not make them comparable. Not saying they're not comparable players, just noting that this is incomplete.
Actual contact percentages don't exist for players as far back as Stargell or Parker. But here you go anyway. This is the actual stat that you want.

2012 Viciedo- 75.4%

Prince effing Fielder is at 77.4% for his career
Joey Votto is at 78%
Josh Hamilton is at 72.4%
Adrian Gonzalez is at 78%
Curtis Granderson is at 76.8%

For comparison, Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols both sit in the high 80s for their career. Make what you want of it.

3% difference. Big whoop.

Thank you, come again.

TheVulture
02-15-2013, 02:40 PM
If you want to go with recent Cuban hitters, look at Betancourt at age 23, he was most compared to Viciedo when Dayan signed here.

Plus you can cherry pick stats all day. My initial point being that just because Viciedo is 23 and he only just played a full year is no reason to consider him a rookie and give him a pass.

My post was in response to blandman's claim that there are no hitters with similar k and k/bb rates to Viciedo at age 23 who became successful hitters. I believe he said to name one player who wasn't out of the league in five years. If you want to keep moving the goal posts, of course I will never score.

That said, I wasn't trying to argue that Viciedo was likely to be the next Willie Stargell; sure he could be the next Betancourt. However, I was responding to the initial claim that said in essence Viciedo has proven he will never be a quality major league hitter because no hitter ever had such poor k/bb and k rates and went on to have success. You can't change the claim, which wasn't even your claim to begin with, and then claim I'm cherry picking stats. I'm referring to the very stats that were imbedded in the claim I was responding to.

Here is the argument summed up I was responding to, maybe this will help:
It has more to do with the K:BB ratio. None of those guys walk, but Viciedo K's like 5 times more than his miniscule walks...
The real problem is numbers like his don't bode well when you talk about likelihood of improvement....
his numbers are just something you don't see really ever (what with so little contact and so few walks) in someone that ends up sticking....
Can you come up with a player with a truly comparable first season to Viciedo, including K:BB ratio and contact rates, in which the player wasn't out of the league in five years?

dickallen15
02-15-2013, 02:45 PM
How is that comparable? I'm using the widely accepted BA/OBP/SLG numbers, K/AB is something another poster injected to make their argument relative, as if Viciedo striking out less will magically improve all his other subpar qualities as a hitter.

If you want to go with recent Cuban hitters, look at Betancourt at age 23, he was most compared to Viciedo when Dayan signed here.

Plus you can cherry pick stats all day. My initial point being that just because Viciedo is 23 and he only just played a full year is no reason to consider him a rookie and give him a pass. Or give him a pass ignoring his 1300 minor league at bats hopefully making him something he ain't - cause you love the long ball.

If I'm proved wrong and he blossoms into a good hitter, I'll happily eat crow.
He has already outperformed Betancourt. And when Alexei Ramirez signed, he was compared offensively to Omar Infante with less power.
What Viciedo has to do is figure out how to hit RHP. He was a beast against LHP. In Charlotte, he eventually figured it out. If he does in Chicago, he'll put up huge numbers. I don't know if he will, but I think it's worth giving him the playing time to find out.

TheVulture
02-15-2013, 02:55 PM
No he is talking about that one stat that proves his point that shows Dayan Viciedo sucks and will never contribute anything to a winning team. I forget what it's called.:rolling:

doublem23
02-15-2013, 03:17 PM
If I'm proved wrong and he blossoms into a good hitter, I'll happily eat crow.

How brave of you

blandman
02-15-2013, 03:36 PM
Actual contact percentages don't exist for players as far back as Stargell or Parker. But here you go anyway. This is the actual stat that you want.

2012 Viciedo- 75.4%

Prince effing Fielder is at 77.4% for his career
Joey Votto is at 78%
Josh Hamilton is at 72.4%
Adrian Gonzalez is at 78%
Curtis Granderson is at 76.8%

For comparison, Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols both sit in the high 80s for their career. Make what you want of it.

3% difference. Big whoop.

Thank you, come again.

Well hold on, we need someone with those contact rates as well as that strikeout ratio. On their own these are pretty meaningless. None of the players on that list also K at a 5:1 ratio versus walks.