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View Full Version : Tommy John vs. Bert Blyleven


mahagga73
01-10-2013, 08:44 PM
Curious if anyone has any idea why Blyleven gets in the Hall and John doesn't. John had more wins, a better winning pct., about the same ERA, and more 20 win seasons ( 4 or 5 to 1). Blyleven has the lead in shutouts but John's 30 plus is very good. Blyleven pitched for World Series winners in 79 and 87 but John also pitched for a couple World Series teams with he Dodgers. I just don't see why John gets little support but there was a huge sabermetric movement trying to get Blyleven in there.

WhiteSox5187
01-10-2013, 08:51 PM
Curious if anyone has any idea why Blyleven gets in the Hall and John doesn't. John had more wins, a better winning pct., about the same ERA, and more 20 win seasons ( 4 or 5 to 1). Blyleven has the lead in shutouts but John's 30 plus is very good. Blyleven pitched for World Series winners in 79 and 87 but John also pitched for a couple World Series teams with he Dodgers. I just don't see why John gets little support but there was a huge sabermetric movement trying to get Blyleven in there.

When he retired didn't Blyleven have something like the fourth most strikeouts of all time? John put up some good numbers but it was mostly a result of longevity (though Blyleven certainly had a long career too). The sabermetric community helps Blyleven more and Blyleven constantly screaming about how he belonged in the hall helped him towards the end a bit too. Though it might have hurt him initially.

mahagga73
01-10-2013, 08:54 PM
When he retired didn't Blyleven have something like the fourth most strikeouts of all time? John put up some good numbers but it was mostly a result of longevity (though Blyleven certainly had a long career too). The sabermetric community helps Blyleven more and Blyleven constantly screaming about how he belonged in the hall helped him towards the end a bit too. Though it might have hurt him initially.
Yeah, but the ERA's are similar, the decisions are similar , John's era is the same. He won 20 games way more than Bert, and you always hear how the voters love that magical 20 win thing. Bert pitched forever too. I think your right, it had to be the strikeouts and the eye test thing, because it sure wasn't the numbers, because John is comparable or better in a lot of categories. Blyleven went from 14 percent to election, practically unprecedented.

chicagowhitesox1
01-10-2013, 09:37 PM
The saber guys deff helped get Blyleven in but he really is way more deserving than Tommy John. Blyleven finished with a career war of 90.7 in 22 seasons while Tommy John finished with a 56.9 in 26 seasons. I'm not a huge fan of saber stats but WAR is pretty accurate especially with pitchers. These were the best pitchers from Johns and Blylevens era. This isn't how I would rank em though.

Tom Seaver 101.1 war...I would say he's the best out of these guys.
Phil Niekro 91.7 war..he pitched alot of innings but still a hofer
Bert Blyleven 90.7 war...he pitched in horrible ballparks with bad defenses. he's a top 20 pitcher in my book.
Gaylord Perry 87.5 war...long career and he was very steady.
Steve Carlton78.6...played longer than Blyleven.
Bob Gibson 77.5 war...his peak is what makes him top 10 all time. Still amazing how high of a career war with a pretty short career.
Fergie Jenkins 77.4 war
Nolan Ryan 77.4...he's pretty overrated
Jim Palmer 63.2...his defense and ball park made him look better. deff a hofer though.
Don Sutton 62.9....like Palmer he pitched with great defense and pitchers park.
Luis Tiant 61.8
Tommy John....56.9...had a few good years but his stats look better from pitching in Chicago and LA.
Jerry Koosman...53.9

Catfish Hunter I think had a 35 career war.

Blyleven pretty much kills Tommy John and really Blyleven was long over due on being elected. Blyleven deff lost alot of 1-0, 2-1 type games in his career.

Blyleven had 5 seasons over 140 era+ and 7 more of over 120+. John had 1 season over 140+ and 5 with over 120+

Lip Man 1
01-11-2013, 12:05 AM
Jim Kaat also has a real grievance.

Lip

chicagowhitesox1
01-11-2013, 12:46 AM
i don't know Lipman Kaat pitched 25 seasons and ended up with a 40.4 war. I wouldn't have a problem with either Tommy John or Jim kaat being elected but Luis Tiant, David Cone, Billy Pierce and Kevin Brown need to go in ahead of those two.

Lip Man 1
01-11-2013, 11:26 AM
Pierce and Tiant I could easily understand. Cone and Kevin Brown....ummmm no.

Lip

Chez
01-11-2013, 12:51 PM
Jim Kaat also has a real grievance.

Lip


Completely agree.

sox1970
01-11-2013, 12:58 PM
Jim Kaat also has a real grievance.

Lip

Yes, considering he would have won a Cy Young in 1966 if they gave it to both leagues, that should be considered...plus the Gold Gloves.

It's obvious that Minoso and Kaat will eventually get in on the type of ballot Santo got in on a couple years ago.

I wish they would just cut the crap and put them in so they can be alive for it and enjoy it with their families.

chicagowhitesox1
01-11-2013, 05:26 PM
Yes, considering he would have won a Cy Young in 1966 if they gave it to both leagues, that should be considered...plus the Gold Gloves.

It's obvious that Minoso and Kaat will eventually get in on the type of ballot Santo got in on a couple years ago.

I wish they would just cut the crap and put them in so they can be alive for it and enjoy it with their families.

I agree, they eventually will put these guys in so why not honor them while they are alive. It's kinda sad because alot of times these guys get forgotten after they die. (Gil Hodges, Mel Harder).

Honestly I never really thought of Minoso as a hofer but what I know about him now, it's a joke that he's not in.

Falstaff
01-18-2013, 05:11 AM
The saber guys deff helped get Blyleven in but he really is way more deserving than Tommy John. Blyleven finished with a career war of 90.7 in 22 seasons while Tommy John finished with a 56.9 in 26 seasons. I'm not a huge fan of saber stats but WAR is pretty accurate especially with pitchers. These were the best pitchers from Johns and Blylevens era. This isn't how I would rank em though.

Tom Seaver 101.1 war...I would say he's the best out of these guys.
Phil Niekro 91.7 war..he pitched alot of innings but still a hofer
Bert Blyleven 90.7 war...he pitched in horrible ballparks with bad defenses. he's a top 20 pitcher in my book.
Gaylord Perry 87.5 war...long career and he was very steady.
Steve Carlton78.6...played longer than Blyleven.
Bob Gibson 77.5 war...his peak is what makes him top 10 all time. Still amazing how high of a career war with a pretty short career.
Fergie Jenkins 77.4 war
Nolan Ryan 77.4...he's pretty overrated
Jim Palmer 63.2...his defense and ball park made him look better. deff a hofer though.
Don Sutton 62.9....like Palmer he pitched with great defense and pitchers park.
Luis Tiant 61.8
Tommy John....56.9...had a few good years but his stats look better from pitching in Chicago and LA.
Jerry Koosman...53.9

Catfish Hunter I think had a 35 career war.

Blyleven pretty much kills Tommy John and really Blyleven was long over due on being elected. Blyleven deff lost alot of 1-0, 2-1 type games in his career.

Blyleven had 5 seasons over 140 era+ and 7 more of over 120+. John had 1 season over 140+ and 5 with over 120+
OK, point well taken. But consider: Tommy John will be unanimous first ballot in the Sports Medicine Hall Of Fame, and before its all over, they may need to make a wax statue of John's elbow, a special exhibit in Cooperstown and the Smithsonian. Tommy John has had unique contribution to the game; deserves recognition. How many HOF pitchers have benefitted from TJ surgery? Huh?

chicagowhitesox1
01-18-2013, 06:01 AM
OK, point well taken. But consider: Tommy John will be unanimous first ballot in the Sports Medicine Hall Of Fame, and before its all over, they may need to make a wax statue of John's elbow, a special exhibit in Cooperstown and the Smithsonian. Tommy John has had unique contribution to the game; deserves recognition. How many HOF pitchers have benefitted from TJ surgery? Huh?

I would put the doctor who performed the surgery (Frank Jobe) in as a contributer before Tommy John.

If Blyleven pitched in LA with the teams Tommy John pitched for he easily would have won 300 games. I don't think Tommy John would even be discussed as a hofer if he pitched for the teams Blyleven had to pitch for. I think Tommy John gets alot of hof support because he pitched in three huge markets--Chicago, Los Angelos and New York. Blyleven basically pitched in smaller markets Minnesota, Cleveland, Texas and Pittsburgh most of his career. Blyleven also won two World Series (1979, 1987) and had a pretty good post season resume. 5-1 record with a low era.

Both Kaat and John won a lot of games so I suppose they deserve to be mentioned for the hof but theres still pitchers I would put in before em. I don't even think Morris is deserving but I would put him in before them.

I think they do have some sort of exhibit in the hof that refers to the Tommy John surgery too. If they don't they should. Yeah your deff right Tommy John deff paved the way for alot of pitchers. It is pretty amazing he came back after that surgery.

mahagga73
01-20-2013, 09:35 PM
The saber guys deff helped get Blyleven in but he really is way more deserving than Tommy John. Blyleven finished with a career war of 90.7 in 22 seasons while Tommy John finished with a 56.9 in 26 seasons. I'm not a huge fan of saber stats but WAR is pretty accurate especially with pitchers. These were the best pitchers from Johns and Blylevens era. This isn't how I would rank em though.

Tom Seaver 101.1 war...I would say he's the best out of these guys.
Phil Niekro 91.7 war..he pitched alot of innings but still a hofer
Bert Blyleven 90.7 war...he pitched in horrible ballparks with bad defenses. he's a top 20 pitcher in my book.
Gaylord Perry 87.5 war...long career and he was very steady.
Steve Carlton78.6...played longer than Blyleven.
Bob Gibson 77.5 war...his peak is what makes him top 10 all time. Still amazing how high of a career war with a pretty short career.
Fergie Jenkins 77.4 war
Nolan Ryan 77.4...he's pretty overrated
Jim Palmer 63.2...his defense and ball park made him look better. deff a hofer though.
Don Sutton 62.9....like Palmer he pitched with great defense and pitchers park.
Luis Tiant 61.8
Tommy John....56.9...had a few good years but his stats look better from pitching in Chicago and LA.
Jerry Koosman...53.9

Catfish Hunter I think had a 35 career war.

Blyleven pretty much kills Tommy John and really Blyleven was long over due on being elected. Blyleven deff lost alot of 1-0, 2-1 type games in his career.

Blyleven had 5 seasons over 140 era+ and 7 more of over 120+. John had 1 season over 140+ and 5 with over 120+
Yeah , I have almost everything Bill James has ever written but have only gotten through a few old abstracts so far so I didn't think of the WAR effect . And I would agree winning percentage for pitchers is overrated. I think some people are forgetting John was on a lot of Sox teams that won a lot of games but didn't score him any runs. Look at his won loss with the Sox and the sparkling ERA next to it. He should have won more games with a better offense. So it isn't all cause he pitched on better teams. Seems like this WAR thing is used to make pitchers on losing teams look better than they are . Catfish Hunter was on so many pennant and series winners it was almost criminal. He is punished for that. I'm thinking this WAR thing might be a little skewed. Gaylord Perry over Bob Gibson invalidates this list as far I'm concerned.

DSpivack
01-20-2013, 10:03 PM
Yeah , I have almost everything Bill James has ever written but have only gotten through a few old abstracts so far so I didn't think of the WAR effect . And I would agree winning percentage for pitchers is overrated. I think some people are forgetting John was on a lot of Sox teams that won a lot of games but didn't score him any runs. Look at his won loss with the Sox and the sparkling ERA next to it. He should have won more games with a better offense. So it isn't all cause he pitched on better teams. Seems like this WAR thing is used to make pitchers on losing teams look better than they are . Catfish Hunter was on so many pennant and series winners it was almost criminal. He is punished for that. I'm thinking this WAR thing might be a little skewed. Gaylord Perry over Bob Gibson invalidates this list as far I'm concerned.
It's cumulative over a career, so Sandy Koufax's WAR is going be much lower than that of someone who pitched for 20 years. It's not really an effective tool when measuring someone who was dominant for a short number of years, versus someone who was merely very good for many more.

SI1020
01-21-2013, 10:16 AM
OK I hope this won't cause your eyes to glaze but Bob Gibson has roughly one pitching WAR point for every 50 innings pitched, and Gaylord Perry one for every 61 innings pitched. This still doesn't indicate to me at least how much better Gibson was than Perry. I'm not even going to get into the allegations against Perry and the admissions he made about doctored balls.

wilburaga
01-21-2013, 10:28 AM
I'd put Tommy John in for two reasons.

1) He made three errors on one play.

2) He signed my White Sox yearbook when I was 15 on the platform of the Lexington Avenue 161 Street station by Yankee Stadium.

Tragg
01-21-2013, 11:25 AM
I don't understand how if 2 pitchers get the same number of outs, but one has more strikeouts, then that pitcher is considered superior.
Strikeouts can be a predictive tool - if you strike out a lot of batters in lower leagues, it can suggest better things in higher leagues.
But as a performance measure, an out is an out is an out over a long period of time (figuring that ballpark, defense behind you, will basically even out).

The Sabre guys got Blyleven in, as did his self-promotion (which works).

doublem23
01-21-2013, 11:31 AM
Anyone who watches baseball should know its a pretty big leap to say the ballpark and defense will "just even out."

Tragg
01-21-2013, 12:34 PM
Anyone who watches baseball should know its a pretty big leap to say the ballpark and defense will "just even out."

Over the course of a career? I'll say it again. The defense behind you will just even out, unless I guess if you play for the Yankees for your entire career.
I suppose John played on generally good teams, so he probably had somewhat better D, but not enough to make a huge difference.
Ballpark - again you play half your games on the road, these players play for several teams.
Regardless I don't see a lot of ballpark discounting for hitters.

mahagga73
01-21-2013, 04:17 PM
I'd put Tommy John in for two reasons.

1) He made three errors on one play.

2) He signed my White Sox yearbook when I was 15 on the platform of the Lexington Avenue 161 Street station by Yankee Stadium.
How did that happen? Let me guess, boots a grounder, wild throw, recieves relay, another wild throw. Is that even close?

wilburaga
01-21-2013, 04:40 PM
How did that happen? Let me guess, boots a grounder, wild throw, recieves relay, another wild throw. Is that even close?

You pretty much nailed it. I'll see if I can find the box score and PBP.

mahagga73
01-21-2013, 05:54 PM
July 27, 1988, Tommy John pitching for Yankees against Twins. Runner on first, grounder to John is bobbled, throw to first is wild, original runner on first is racing for home, John takes the relay and airmails the catcher.