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View Full Version : Sources: Royals Acquire James Shields, Wade Davis from Rays


PaleHoser
12-09-2012, 10:13 PM
Link (http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8731167/sources-tampa-bay-rays-trade-james-shields-wade-davis-kansas-city-royals-wil-myers)

Royals are finally getting some starting pitchers to go with that lineup. Lookout.

palehozenychicty
12-09-2012, 10:16 PM
Bold trade by the Royals. If Shields and Davis pitch to norms, then the division will be very interesting next season. :o:

PaleHoser
12-09-2012, 10:22 PM
From MLB Twitter:

OFFICIAL: @Royals (http://twitter.com/Royals) acquire James Shields, Wade Davis, PTBN or cash from #Rays (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Rays&src=hash) for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, Patrick Leonard.

MLB.com Story (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121209&content_id=40591304&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlb)

Deal is done.

PalehosePlanet
12-09-2012, 10:28 PM
Myers was the Minor League player of the year and is one of the game's best prospects. Surprised that the Royals would give him up for two years of James Shields. Very surprised.

blandman
12-09-2012, 10:30 PM
Whoa. This is a very big negative. The Royals are not only relevant. They've got a decent shot with that rotation now. If their hitters start developing, they're going to be a very very very good team. Shields, Davis, Guthrie, Chen...and that really good young pen. :(:

soxnut1018
12-09-2012, 10:31 PM
I'd still rather face them than Bruce Chen.

WhiteSox5187
12-09-2012, 10:32 PM
Myers was the Minor League player of the year and is one of the game's best prospects. Surprised that the Royals would give him up for two years of James Shields. Very surprised.

They also have three years of Davis who might be able to put it together. If Shields can continue to pitch the way he has the past two years and Davis can figure it out it is a very good trade for the Royals. We will see though.

blandman
12-09-2012, 10:33 PM
They also have three years of Davis who might be able to put it together. If Shields can continue to pitch the way he has the past two years and Davis can figure it out it is a very good trade for the Royals. We will see though.

:?:

You make this sound like he was horrible before then. He had one bad year in five. He's one of five pitchers in all of baseball to go 200+ innings the last five years.

Davis is a good get too. He didn't start last year because the Rays had to many pitchers. The dude's solid.

WhiteSox5187
12-09-2012, 10:39 PM
:?:

You make this sound like he was horrible before then. He had one bad year in five. He's one of five pitchers in all of baseball to go 200+ innings the last five years.

Davis is a good get too. He didn't start last year because the Rays had to many pitchers. The dude's solid.

Oh yea, you're right. I don't know why but I read his stats wrong. I suppose the only thing that would give me trepidation about Shields is that he is on the wrong side of 30.

palehozenychicty
12-09-2012, 10:40 PM
Oh yea, you're right. I don't know why but I read his stats wrong. I suppose the only thing that would give me trepidation about Shields is that he is on the wrong side of 30.

It's only two years, though, which gives their young arms to develop in the minors. By then, they could be a consistent contender.

Marqhead
12-09-2012, 10:42 PM
Eh, my money's on the Royals still sucking next year.

PalehosePlanet
12-09-2012, 10:46 PM
They also have three years of Davis who might be able to put it together. If Shields can continue to pitch the way he has the past two years and Davis can figure it out it is a very good trade for the Royals. We will see though.

Davis was in the pen all of last year and had a great year for The Rays in that role. As a starter, the previous couple of years, he was mediocre. I personally think he's better suited for the pen, but yeah, I'm sure The Royals didn't trade for him to be a setup man.

We'll see how it works out, but I think this another excellent move by Tampa in the long run. In the short run, it makes The Royals better right now.

Domeshot17
12-09-2012, 10:54 PM
You know, I commend the royals for just not wanting to suck anymore, but they paid a insanely high price. 2 solid SP but Wil Myers, that guy has MVP potential. This is a great haul for Tampa

palehosepub
12-09-2012, 11:08 PM
You know, I commend the royals for just not wanting to suck anymore, but they paid a insanely high price. 2 solid SP but Wil Myers, that guy has MVP potential. This is a great haul for Tampa
I agree its an aggressive move by the Royals but one they have had to make after many many years of treading water. This could be one of the most interesting trades of the last ten years. Lots of good prospects given up by KC. I think they will be more competitive next year and for the next few years..

aryzner
12-09-2012, 11:24 PM
I will play as the Royals more often in MLB 13: The Show.

palehozenychicty
12-09-2012, 11:24 PM
I agree its an aggressive move by the Royals but one they have had to make after many many years of treading water. This could be one of the most interesting trades of the last ten years. Lots of good prospects given up by KC. I think they will be more competitive next year and for the next few years..

They still have many prospects to choose from like Mondesi and Starling.

I still am not sure the rotation is good enough, but they'll be a stronger opponent.

Lip Man 1
12-09-2012, 11:45 PM
The Royals could send out the seven dwarfs to pitch and the Sox mental block issues against anyone wearing that jersey would come into play. (i.e. keep trying to bash 800 foot home runs and continue to try pulling off speed pitches on the outer half of the plate...)

Lip

Soxman219
12-10-2012, 12:09 AM
At least if the Sox lose to the Royals I won't be angry as much about it anymore.

DonnieDarko
12-10-2012, 12:09 AM
Holy crap. ALC just got a lot tougher.

DaveFeelsRight
12-10-2012, 12:43 AM
Does this really change things between the Royals and the Sox? I mean, we can't even beat Bruce Chen.

mark1529
12-10-2012, 09:43 AM
Eh, my money's on the Royals still sucking next year.

so what's this now 3 years in a row that the royals are the up and coming team?? something just ain't right in that organization....what it is i don't know:scratch:

doublem23
12-10-2012, 10:05 AM
You know, I commend the royals for just not wanting to suck anymore, but they paid a insanely high price. 2 solid SP but Wil Myers, that guy has MVP potential. This is a great haul for Tampa

The Royals farm system has been stocked with "MVP potential" talent for years and it hasn't produced an 80-win season since 2003.

I like this move a lot for Kansas City. Unfortunately.

amsteel
12-10-2012, 10:38 AM
It's Detroit's division until they win a WS. The Royals picked a bad time to decide to get competitive.

doublem23
12-10-2012, 10:53 AM
It's Detroit's division until they win a WS. The Royals picked a bad time to decide to get competitive.

The Tigers aren't very good and Kansas City doens't need to build an elite team to compete in this horse**** division. 85-90 wins is generally all you need. That figure's not entirely out of the equation for Kansas City now.

Foulke You
12-10-2012, 11:15 AM
The Royals farm system has been stocked with "MVP potential" talent for years and it hasn't produced an 80-win season since 2003.

I like this move a lot for Kansas City. Unfortunately.
I agree. The Royals have tried to add pitching in the past but always went for the wrong ones like Gil Meche or Jonathon Sanchez. This time, they added one really good one and one solid pitcher. Also, if Ervin Santana chooses next year to have one of his good seasons, then the Royals have a decent shot at competing in this division. I feel this trade likely has made the AL Central a 3 horse race. The only plus to this trade is that hopefully, this means KC will give Detroit more of a fight in 2013 so maybe things will even out a bit. We already know the Sox struggle against them regardless of who is on the bump.

KenBerryGrab
12-10-2012, 11:59 AM
In the long term, this hollows out the Royals. They way overpaid, especially including Odorozzi in the deal.

Myers is an MVP-type talent. This could be an Erik bedard-like bungle for Moore, but he has to get to .500 soon.

Huisj
12-10-2012, 12:41 PM
In the long term, this hollows out the Royals. They way overpaid, especially including Odorozzi in the deal.

Myers is an MVP-type talent. This could be an Erik bedard-like bungle for Moore, but he has to get to .500 soon.

I don't know. Bedard had shown to be quite fragile even during his good years with Baltimore. Shields has shown no such signs, and his velocity has actually gone up in recent years.

SCCWS
12-10-2012, 12:42 PM
In the long term, this hollows out the Royals. They way overpaid, especially including Odorozzi in the deal.

Myers is an MVP-type talent. This could be an Erik bedard-like bungle for Moore, but he has to get to .500 soon.

I am not sure they overpaid. Rumors floating in Boston a few weeks ago was Myers for Lester and most Boston media and fans were against it. The general consensus is you don't trade an established 1/2 starter for a prospect, even one as good as Meyers. Now going into next year Shields may not have been the # 2 guy in Tampa but he would be on most staffs.

soltrain21
12-10-2012, 01:15 PM
The Royals could send out the seven dwarfs to pitch and the Sox mental block issues against anyone wearing that jersey would come into play. (i.e. keep trying to bash 800 foot home runs and continue to try pulling off speed pitches on the outer half of the plate...)

Lip

But now they will beat other teams, too.

DSpivack
12-10-2012, 01:21 PM
I don't know. Bedard had shown to be quite fragile even during his good years with Baltimore. Shields has shown no such signs, and his velocity has actually gone up in recent years.

If they extent Shields, it's possible the deal will be worth it for the Royals. If they only get 2 years of him in Kansas City, OTOH...

I am not sure they overpaid. Rumors floating in Boston a few weeks ago was Myers for Lester and most Boston media and fans were against it. The general consensus is you don't trade an established 1/2 starter for a prospect, even one as good as Meyers. Now going into next year Shields may not have been the # 2 guy in Tampa but he would be on most staffs.

It's not just Myers (BA's minor league player of the year the season after Mike Trout won it), though, it's also two very good pitching prospects in Odorizzi and Montgomery.

JB98
12-10-2012, 01:27 PM
The Royals farm system has been stocked with "MVP potential" talent for years and it hasn't produced an 80-win season since 2003.

I like this move a lot for Kansas City. Unfortunately.

Agreed. All the people who love prospects hate this move by Kansas City. If I'm a Royals fan, I'm dancing on the ceiling right now. Shields is a legit top-of-the-rotation guy. Davis is a nice back-end guy. I know he worked in the bullpen last year, but I still think he can start.

Kansas City has a viable rotation now with Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis and Chen. I wouldn't pick them to win the division, but only a fool would take them lightly.

lizard6king6
12-10-2012, 02:04 PM
I think this is a fairly even deal in the long run. However, as many said it does make the Royals better now. they finally have some solid pitching. Tampa in return got a real nice young player who has ton of potential but has not proven anything yet.

gosox41
12-10-2012, 02:10 PM
Link (http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8731167/sources-tampa-bay-rays-trade-james-shields-wade-davis-kansas-city-royals-wil-myers)

Royals are finally getting some starting pitchers to go with that lineup. Lookout.


I didn't realize it until I read it today that the Royals scored the fewest runs out of any team in the AL Central. I am out sick today and not feeling well so I may have read it wrong, but I thought I got that from foxsports.com.


Bob

johnnyg83
12-10-2012, 02:19 PM
Cleveland scored less ... but not by much

DSpivack
12-10-2012, 03:10 PM
I didn't realize it until I read it today that the Royals scored the fewest runs out of any team in the AL Central. I am out sick today and not feeling well so I may have read it wrong, but I thought I got that from foxsports.com.


Bob

Cleveland scored less ... but not by much
Cleveland was 2nd, KC 3rd in the AL, both of them well ahead of Seattle.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012.shtml

johnnyg83
12-10-2012, 04:42 PM
Cleveland was 2nd, KC 3rd in the AL, both of them well ahead of Seattle.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012.shtml

gosh we were last in doubles

shes
12-10-2012, 09:55 PM
This could end up being a notoriously bad trade for KC in the long run. They're mortgaging future riches for a few expensive seasons from a #2 and #5 starter. They had Myers for peanuts for the next 6 years and gave him up (along with 2 very solid prospects) for a pitcher on the wrong side of thirty. As a Sox fan, I love this trade, but as a fan of baseball, it sucks.

CoopaLoop
12-11-2012, 12:50 AM
Will Myers, a top 5 prospect in baseball and their two best pitching prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.

That is insane. Congrats on reaching mediocrity while mortgaging the future.

I can't believe they just made this move.

Mr. Jinx
12-11-2012, 07:33 AM
Will Myers, a top 5 prospect in baseball and their two best pitching prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.

That is insane. Congrats on reaching mediocrity while mortgaging the future.

I can't believe they just made this move.

I know, I love this move. The Royals just gave themselves a chance to go .500 for the next 2 years in return for crushing any chance of them becoming a real threat down the road.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 08:49 AM
gosh we were last in doubles

Short fences and clean OF lines makes Sox Park a very notorious doubles-unfriendly park.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 08:53 AM
I know, I love this move. The Royals just gave themselves a chance to go .500 for the next 2 years in return for crushing any chance of them becoming a real threat down the road.

Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Wedema
12-11-2012, 09:17 AM
Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.


I agree that this is a good move for KC but Hosmer and Moustakas both only have one full season under their belt. It is too early to call them below average MLB players.

WhiteSox5187
12-11-2012, 09:18 AM
I agree that this is a good move for KC but Hosmer and Moustakas both only have one full season under their belt. It is too early to call them below average MLB players.

And they are both 23 and 24 respectively.

ComiskeyBrewer
12-11-2012, 09:24 AM
Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Bingo. AAA is full of former "can't miss" prospects who never panned out(although it is still early to say that about Hosmer and Moustakas). Myers could be the next Matt Laporta for all we know(or on the other hand, the next Braun). Did they give up too much? Only time will tell on that one, but you need to make a choice; try to win now and gamble on the future, or play it "safe" and hope your prospects aren't duds.

shes
12-11-2012, 09:25 AM
Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Gordon has actually become one of the best outfielders in the AL over the last two seasons and Moustakas did pretty well for his first full season in 2012. Among AL third basemen, only Beltre and Cabrera were clearly better. If you're including the NL, you can add Freese, Headley, Wright, Zimmerman, and A. Ramirez. He was about on par with Alvarez, H. Ramirez, Lawrie, and Seager. So at best he was the eighth best player at his position and at worst the 12th.

Only Hosmer is a bust at this point (and he's still young enough to turn it around). Gordon is near-elite, a perennial fringe All-Star, and Moustakas is already a slightly better than average third basemen with huge potential.

But anyway, Myers is a better prospect than any of those guys, and what they got in return for him + several good prospects is underwhelming at best. Top prospects often bust, true, but #1-type hitting prospects rarely do; at worst they become solid every-day players. It's quite rare for a Wil Myers to become a Todd Van Poppel.

I can't believe this is the best they could get for that package. And if it was, I can't believe they pulled the trigger. It just doesn't make sense to mortgage a future that included a blue-chip position player for what most likely will amount to no more than a couple 85 win seasons. I'd understand it if they were closer to truly contending than they are, but we're talking about a team with huge holes on both offense and defense that just chose to plug one hole while opening up another.

I found the write-up at THT to be quite good -- http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-many-angles-of-wil-myers-and-the-royals-direction-for-the-future7/ -- it's actually very even-handed and takes a kinder stance toward the Royals move than most.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 09:27 AM
I agree that this is a good move for KC but Hosmer and Moustakas both only have one full season under their belt. It is too early to call them below average MLB players.

Just because they are below average players now does not mean they are doomed to fail, but it is a simple fact that the majority of prospects do. Kansas City has been hoarding "MVP-type" talent players for 10 years now. That strategy has earned them 9 straight sub-80 win seasons.

And, for the record, both have over a season of MLB experience and their career tracks are currently most closely aligned with Ken Harvey and Kevin Orie respectively. Not saying it's time to give up on either of them, I'd swap our 1B and 3B for theirs in a heartbeat, but just a friendly reminder that being a top prospect in AA guarantees nothing in the Majors.

spawn
12-11-2012, 09:32 AM
Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.
Agree completely. Having good prospects is a must in any organization, but not because they are guaranteed to produce at the major league level. They make good trading chips, as was displayed here. The Royals are an organization right now to keep an eye on. They seem to know what they are doing. This move highlights that IMO.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 09:37 AM
But anyway, Myers is a better prospect than any of those guys, and what they got in return for him + several good prospects is underwhelming at best. Top prospects often bust, true, but #1-type hitting prospects rarely do; at worst they become solid every-day players. It's quite rare for a Wil Myers to become a Todd Van Poppel.

I'm not sure where Myers will land on the pre-2013 BA Top Prospects list, but as of right now, Gordon (#2 BA prospect in 2007), Hosmer (#8 prospect in 2011), and Moustakas (#9 prospect in 2011) have all been ranked higher than Myers who peaked at #10 in 2010 and slid to #28 in 2011.

SoxSpeed22
12-11-2012, 09:51 AM
You have to take a chance sometime when you've had 9 straight losing seasons. Myers could be special, but then again he could just as easily flame out. Prospects are called prospects for a reason. The Royals got a pretty rock solid rotation now with Shields being the anchor and Davis having a lot of upside.

shes
12-11-2012, 10:19 AM
I'm not sure where Myers will land on the pre-2013 BA Top Prospects list, but as of right now, Gordon (#2 BA prospect in 2007), Hosmer (#8 prospect in 2011), and Moustakas (#9 prospect in 2011) have all been ranked higher than Myers who peaked at #10 in 2010 and slid to #28 in 2011.

I believe I read Sickels tentatively had him at #2 heading into 2013, right behind Profar.

In any event, the problem lies in giving up prospects of that caliber for a chance to jump from 72 to 80 wins, or if everything goes right, 85 wins. It's a win-now move that won't allow them to win now unless everything goes well and both the Sox (likely) and Tigers (incredibly unlikely) slip next season. At the end of the day, they still have a bad pitching staff and a bad offense on paper. They pretty much need everyone to live up to their best projections to get to 85 freakin' wins.

I seriously question Moore's motives in making this deal.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 10:33 AM
I seriously question Moore's motives in making this deal.

Probably because he's watched top prospect after top prospect come through the Royals system and basically produce nothing at the MLB level. He's probably tired of people lauding over his farm system while winning 70 games a season in Kansas City. They've played it safe and conservative for years and literally the best they have to show for it is a 3rd place finish in 2012. They have a young, emerging lineup. There is plenty of growth for the offense with the young guys they have in place now. And it's not like they've just emptied the cupboard. They still have plenty of pieces coming through the pipes. They dealt from a position of strength to bolster a position of weakness.

I mean, if you believe hoarding prospects is the eventual path to winning baseball that's fine, I don't neccessarily agree with you but I respect that point of view, but to say you can't fathom what the Royals are up to after spinning their wheels for a decade, well, that, IMO, is crazy talk.

WhiteSox5187
12-11-2012, 10:39 AM
Probably because he's watched top prospect after top prospect come through the Royals system and basically produce nothing at the MLB level. He's probably tired of people lauding over his farm system while winning 70 games a season in Kansas City. They've played it safe and conservative for years and literally the best they have to show for it is a 3rd place finish in 2012. They have a young, emerging lineup. There is plenty of growth for the offense with the young guys they have in place now. And it's not like they've just emptied the cupboard. They still have plenty of pieces coming through the pipes. They dealt from a position of strength to bolster a position of weakness.

I mean, if you believe hoarding prospects is the eventual path to winning baseball that's fine, I don't neccessarily agree with you but I respect that point of view, but to say you can't fathom what the Royals are up to after spinning their wheels for a decade, well, that, IMO, is crazy talk.

I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 10:40 AM
I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

Considering the Royals have done jack **** except produce a lot of glizty future MVPs who bomb once they make it to KC, that's not surprising.

asindc
12-11-2012, 10:45 AM
I think more than anything Dayton Moore realizes his job is on the line and a bad year this year could be his last with the Royals.

There is a column on Grantland that discusses that viewpoint. It would not be the first time a GM has made a job-saving move that eventually brings long-term harm to the team. My guess is that Moore expects signficantly improvement from the young lineup so that a decent rotation will win them enough games to be relevant in September.

DSpivack
12-11-2012, 10:51 AM
There is a column on Grantland that discusses that viewpoint. It would not be the first time a GM has made a job-saving move that eventually brings long-term harm to the team. My guess is that Moore expects signficantly improvement from the young lineup so that a decent rotation will win them enough games to be relevant in September.

Yeah, you don't trade the BA Minor League Player of the Year (and 2 more good pitching prospects) for a SP on the wrong side of 30 signed for just 2 seasons if you're planning for the long-term.

Mr. Jinx
12-11-2012, 10:56 AM
Oh please, before Myers it was Hosmer. Before Hosmer it was Moustakas. Before Moustakas it was Gordon. Only Gordon is even an average MLB player at this point. This is a bad move only on the day you get a trophy for having the world's best farm system. As long as MLB production is the name of the game, KC made a nice move. They have plenty of young, up and coming position players. They desperately needed pitching. They play in a division that only requires 85-90 wins. They're a real threat in the Central now.

Gordon is far from an average player. He had almost 200 hits, and OPS of .822 and even won the gold glove at 3rd last year. The Sox would kill to have a guy like him for the next decade. Moustakas is far from a bust too and it is way too early to tell what he will end up being.

Yes, teams tend to overvalue good prospects (i.e. Beckham, Fields, etc) but these guys are not good prospects, they are elite.

And I've been hearing that the Royals are going to be a threat going on 10 years now. I'll believe it when I see it.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 11:29 AM
And I've been hearing that the Royals are going to be a threat going on 10 years now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.

DSpivack
12-11-2012, 11:42 AM
Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.
To say that the talent has produced 'absolutely squat' is really not true. They've graduated a bunch of position players (I'll add Salvador Perez to those mentioned earlier), but they made this trade because their pitching hasn't produced anyone good yet (besides Greinke). This trade may pay off for them, but Shields is signed only through 2014. I question why a team like them who are limited in payroll will be paying Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie $20 million in 2013.

I think this was another good article looking at the trade:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/44837/rays-royals-deal-a-lesson-in-team-building

Mr. Jinx
12-11-2012, 11:49 AM
Yeah, that's the point, people have been proclaiming all the talent in the Royals farm system would bring them back to the glory days and so far all that talent has produced absolutely squat. They've finally wised up and started hedging their often overvalued prospects for actual Major League talent.

And my point is that this trade doesn't make them threats this year either. Just another 80-85 win team that will end up in 3rd place.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 12:17 PM
To say that the talent has produced 'absolutely squat' is really not true. They've graduated a bunch of position players (I'll add Salvador Perez to those mentioned earlier), but they made this trade because their pitching hasn't produced anyone good yet (besides Greinke). This trade may pay off for them, but Shields is signed only through 2014. I question why a team like them who are limited in payroll will be paying Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie $20 million in 2013.

I think this was another good article looking at the trade:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/44837/rays-royals-deal-a-lesson-in-team-building

It absolutely is true in terms of on-field producation, as Kansas City has gone 9 years since they've even won 80 games. And they've had a plethora of "up and coming" superstars over the past decade and only one to this point, Gordon, has been an above average player, but even then, 2 seasons of OPS+ 133 baseball isn't exactly HOF, MVP-caliber stuff here. He's a very good player, but you're still talking about a guy who has fallen well, well, well short of expectations.

Keri's pro-Rays bias ruins the piece for me, IMO. You could very easily flip the script and say the same things about Kansas City he said about Tampa. They went out, rocked the boat, and ultimately, made themselves better for the 2013 season.

And you've got to again remember, Kansas City doesn't need to build an elite level team to compete in the Central. You don't even have to be above average, the 7th best team in the AL wound up winning this disgustingly bad division. Maybe the Royals would be a lock for a 4th or 5th place finish in the East or West, but here, they're definitely to be taken seriously.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 12:19 PM
And my point is that this trade doesn't make them threats this year either. Just another 80-85 win team that will end up in 3rd place.

80-85 wins is very threatening in this division. You only needed 86 to win it.

Mr. Jinx
12-11-2012, 12:46 PM
80-85 wins is very threatening in this division. You only needed 86 to win it.

Detroit won 88 so you'd need 89 to win it, but I get the point. I still don't think they will top out over 85 (and I don't even think that), which would put them 3rd still last year. I suppose that we will have to wait and see who is correct. I'm sure I'll forget all about this conversation by that point!

shes
12-11-2012, 01:28 PM
Detroit's floor is still probably a few wins above where KC's ceiling is -- that's what, to me, is the most puzzling.

I have no problem with a team trading prospects to win now (the Brewers gambling w/ Sabbathia and Greinke, Giants w/ Beltran) if they're close, but KC isn't really close to anything but mediocrity. If that's what they're shooting for, it must be depressing as hell to be a Royals fan.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 02:55 PM
If that's what they're shooting for, it must be depressing as hell to be a Royals fan.

Sounds an awful lot like White Sox baseball

DSpivack
12-11-2012, 03:10 PM
Sounds an awful lot like White Sox baseball
Really? They've had, what, 2 winning seasons in the last 20 years or something? We're not nearly as bad off.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 03:27 PM
Really? They've had, what, 2 winning seasons in the last 20 years or something? We're not nearly as bad off.

In the end is there really any difference between 70-75 wins per year and 80-85?

DSpivack
12-11-2012, 04:01 PM
In the end is there really any difference between 70-75 wins per year and 80-85?
We've made the playoffs three times since 2000, with one World Series title. When did they last make it, 25 years ago?

johnnyg83
12-11-2012, 04:10 PM
They're solid now everywhere but 2b and RF.

Mr. Jinx
12-11-2012, 04:17 PM
In the end is there really any difference between 70-75 wins per year and 80-85?

Absolutely. One keeps you interested and in the hunt for the playoffs throughout the season, the other you know you're out of it by June.

Lip Man 1
12-11-2012, 06:44 PM
Agreed.

Lip

CoopaLoop
12-11-2012, 06:53 PM
Most prospects fail sure, but guys rated as highly as Myers don't usually fail.

James Shields has had one season where he would be anything other than a solid number two guy. You don't give up the farm for a guy like that.

Trade just reeks of a GM feeling the pressure to do something now.

Rotation right now has Ervin Santana as it's number two. This is not a playoff contender or even a borderline one imo.

They have a glaring need in RF and were about to fill it with a guy they would have had control of for 6 years, but they give him away for a pitcher who will be 31 in a week.

doublem23
12-11-2012, 07:51 PM
Most prospects fail sure, but guys rated as highly as Myers don't usually

Ha ha, what? Myers was BA's #28 prospect this year and his K:BB rate has progressively gotten worse as he's moved from A+, AA, and AAA. Guys like this fail ALL. THE. TIME. He's arguably not even their top OF prospect.

DSpivack
12-11-2012, 10:04 PM
Ha ha, what? Myers was BA's #28 prospect this year and his K:BB rate has progressively gotten worse as he's moved from A+, AA, and AAA. Guys like this fail ALL. THE. TIME. He's arguably not even their top OF prospect.
He was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2012.

Who do you think was a bigger prospect for them in the OF? Cain?

He's in pretty good company there:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_America_Minor_League_Player_of_the_Year_A ward

doublem23
12-11-2012, 11:00 PM
Starling. I'm not saying it's definite, just noting the Royals aren't exactly hurting for blue chip MiLB OF

palehozenychicty
12-11-2012, 11:09 PM
To say that the talent has produced 'absolutely squat' is really not true. They've graduated a bunch of position players (I'll add Salvador Perez to those mentioned earlier), but they made this trade because their pitching hasn't produced anyone good yet (besides Greinke). This trade may pay off for them, but Shields is signed only through 2014. I question why a team like them who are limited in payroll will be paying Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie $20 million in 2013.

I think this was another good article looking at the trade:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/44837/rays-royals-deal-a-lesson-in-team-building

This bolded point is why the trade is a bad one and will get Moore fired over time. He didn't believe that anyone would want to play for his team, so he went ahead and used his payroll space on questionable entities. It's a poor attitude to show, and it keeps bad teams in the cellar. Teams like KC and Pittsburgh would be better off using their money for quality FAs that FIT, even with an overpay. Agree with it or not, the message is clear.

Nobody was out in demand for Santana and Guthrie. He needlessly boxed himself into a corner, and had to part with a prospect that quite likely will provide value at the major league level.

His ceiling is unknown, but I doubt that Myers will be a scrub. His slash line projects to a decent hitter with below average defense. That's just the lowest benchmark. I mean, hell, Mark Reynolds got a contract a few days ago.

Tampa is one of the best run franchises in the game. If they didn't think he could play, I doubt that they would have pursued him.

CoopaLoop
12-11-2012, 11:56 PM
Ha ha, what? Myers was BA's #28 prospect this year and his K:BB rate has progressively gotten worse as he's moved from A+, AA, and AAA. Guys like this fail ALL. THE. TIME. He's arguably not even their top OF prospect.

Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.

MUsoxfan
12-12-2012, 12:12 AM
He was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2012.

Who do you think was a bigger prospect for them in the OF? Cain?

He's in pretty good company there:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_America_Minor_League_Player_of_the_Year_A ward

I give up a great prospect for a proven known commodity just about every single time.

As Doub said, hoarding prospects has done nothing but fail them. Time to change up the business model a bit.

Myers won't help them win right now, and how much losing can an organization take

johnnyg83
12-12-2012, 12:12 AM
Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.

He was highly rated but the trade here has gone from CON to PRo in the last few days. George Brett, all the morning drive sports radio guys are saluting as a sign of not letting prospects run your major league team.

The consensus is that Myers's stock will never be higher and that Montgomery needed a change of scenery. We basically traded Myers and Montgomery for Shields and Odorizzi and Leonard for Miller.

I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.

CoopaLoop
12-12-2012, 12:36 AM
He was highly rated but the trade here has gone from CON to PRo in the last few days. George Brett, all the morning drive sports radio guys are saluting as a sign of not letting prospects run your major league team.

The consensus is that Myers's stock will never be higher and that Montgomery needed a change of scenery. We basically traded Myers and Montgomery for Shields and Odorizzi and Leonard for Miller.

I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.

By midseason, Myers was in everybody's top 5. Even if he never lives up to the hype I am pretty confident he is going to be better than Jeff Francouer.

What is there to like about the Royals rotation after Shields?

Santana and Guthrie are back end guys. Hochevar is a 5th starter. I suppose you can hope Wade Davis' trip to the pen allowed him right himself, but that's far from a sure thing.

I just don't get it. Royals really frightened me with their potential, now they are just another average team.

doublem23
12-12-2012, 07:38 AM
I say this lightly, but the Royals will be a force to reckon with in 2013.

In terms of the AL Central, I agree. I mean, I don't expect KC to be able to compete with the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels day in and day out, but they're in this crap-o-la division. You only have to be the 7th best team in the league to win it. I don't think that is unattainable. You're replacing who? Hochevar, Mendoza, Sanchez, Paulino, Teaford, Mazzarro, and Adcock with Shields, Santana, and Davis. If you get a little bounce back from a few guys who were terrible last year like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Francouer and now a full season of Perez... I think that's definitely enough to significantly close the 13-game gap between them and us, which basically pulls them nearly even with Detroit, as well.


I just don't get it. Royals really frightened me with their potential, now they are just another average team.

How are they less frightening now? Was Myers expected to carry them next season? Was 300-400 innings-ish of the Royals 4th and 5th starter merry go round last year so much more intimidating that the 220 IP Shields will give you and whatever Davis will, as well?

doublem23
12-12-2012, 07:54 AM
Oh yeah he isn't highly rated at all. My bad.

Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html), from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001

Josh Hamilton (#1)
Corey Patterson (#2)
Sean Burroughs (#6)
Ichiro (#9)
Nick Johnson (#10)
2002

Hank Blalock (#3)
Sean Burroughs (#4)
Carlos Pena (#5)
Joe Mauer (#7)
Wilson Betemit (#8)
2003

Mark Teixeira (#1)
Rocco Baldelli (#2)
Jose Reyes (#3)
Joe Mauer (#4)
Brandon Phillips (#7)
2004

Joe Mauer (#1)
BJ Upton (#2)
Delmon Young (#3)
Rickie Weeks (#5)
Alex Rios (#6)
2005

Joe Mauer (#1)
Delmon Young (#3)
Ian Stewart (#4)
Joel Guzman (#5)
Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.

blandman
12-12-2012, 11:17 AM
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html), from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001

Josh Hamilton (#1)
Corey Patterson (#2)
Sean Burroughs (#6)
Ichiro (#9)
Nick Johnson (#10)

2002

Hank Blalock (#3)
Sean Burroughs (#4)
Carlos Pena (#5)
Joe Mauer (#7)
Wilson Betemit (#8)

2003

Mark Teixeira (#1)
Rocco Baldelli (#2)
Jose Reyes (#3)
Joe Mauer (#4)
Brandon Phillips (#7)

2004

Joe Mauer (#1)
BJ Upton (#2)
Delmon Young (#3)
Rickie Weeks (#5)
Alex Rios (#6)

2005

Joe Mauer (#1)
Delmon Young (#3)
Ian Stewart (#4)
Joel Guzman (#5)
Casey Kotchman (#6)

By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.

That's an interesting take, I'd be curious to see if that holds historically.

However, I do feel that it understates just how much more valuable a star level player is with no service time. A couple of those would really help you fill out a roster.

edit: Also, I don't want it to sound like I don't think this is a good trade for the Royals. I would have done this deal too. I'm not that high on Myers. He has an obvious hole in his swing that is going to need some serious retooling if he isn't going to be a lifetime .220 hitter.

Oblong
12-12-2012, 11:42 AM
I don't think Dayton Moore is an idiot. Any argument about this trade that you see on twitter or a MB is one he's already had with himself and his staff. He knows the risks. He knows how old Shields is. He decided to go for it. I applaud a GM for that. That's why you build a farm system. More often than not a prospect's top value will be before he gets a full season of ML experience. Maybe this deal will not work out for KC long term and maybe they won't make the playoffs but at some point you have to go from rebuilding to a contender. Why not now. Crap or get off the pot.

SI1020
12-12-2012, 01:21 PM
I don't think Dayton Moore is an idiot. Any argument about this trade that you see on twitter or a MB is one he's already had with himself and his staff. He knows the risks. He knows how old Shields is. He decided to go for it. I applaud a GM for that. That's why you build a farm system. More often than not a prospect's top value will be before he gets a full season of ML experience. Maybe this deal will not work out for KC long term and maybe they won't make the playoffs but at some point you have to go from rebuilding to a contender. Why not now. Crap or get off the pot. As doub and others have pointed out most prospects, even the highly regarded ones, don't work out. I still like to have a decent farm system if for no other reason than it can help you great some proven players in return for your young talent. I think this is a good move by KC, and with the blockbuster three team trade involving the Indians, who appeared to help themselves too, where does that leave our team?

johnnyg83
12-12-2012, 02:30 PM
In terms of the AL Central, I agree. I mean, I don't expect KC to be able to compete with the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels day in and day out, but they're in this crap-o-la division. You only have to be the 7th best team in the league to win it. I don't think that is unattainable. You're replacing who? Hochevar, Mendoza, Sanchez, Paulino, Teaford, Mazzarro, and Adcock with Shields, Santana, and Davis. If you get a little bounce back from a few guys who were terrible last year like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Francouer and now a full season of Perez... I think that's definitely enough to significantly close the 13-game gap between them and us, which basically pulls them nearly even with Detroit, as well.



How are they less frightening now? Was Myers expected to carry them next season? Was 300-400 innings-ish of the Royals 4th and 5th starter merry go round last year so much more intimidating that the 220 IP Shields will give you and whatever Davis will, as well?

"force" is too strong a word. I do predict they'll be better than they were by 10-12 games and if Hosmer and Moustakas hit better they could test Detroit.

Hochevar is a long reliever or SP depth. Hopefully, not in the starting five.

shes
12-12-2012, 02:59 PM
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html), from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001

Josh Hamilton (#1)
Corey Patterson (#2)
Sean Burroughs (#6)
Ichiro (#9)
Nick Johnson (#10)

2002

Hank Blalock (#3)
Sean Burroughs (#4)
Carlos Pena (#5)
Joe Mauer (#7)
Wilson Betemit (#8)

2003

Mark Teixeira (#1)
Rocco Baldelli (#2)
Jose Reyes (#3)
Joe Mauer (#4)
Brandon Phillips (#7)

2004

Joe Mauer (#1)
BJ Upton (#2)
Delmon Young (#3)
Rickie Weeks (#5)
Alex Rios (#6)

2005

Joe Mauer (#1)
Delmon Young (#3)
Ian Stewart (#4)
Joel Guzman (#5)
Casey Kotchman (#6)

By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.

You can spin it that way if you are for the trade, or you can spin it as Rany Jazayerli did for Grantland:

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

When you compare him more specifically to players who were regarded as highly as he is now, the chances of Myers becoming at least an All-Star level player look closer to 90%, while the chances of him totally busting are close to nil.

The Royals didn't just trade a good prospect; they traded one on the level of Trout, Bruce, Paulie, Manny, etc. They could've put Myers in RF and used their FA money to sign a pitcher like Sanchez or trade some less valuable minor leaguers for someone like Floyd and ultimately they would have won 79 games instead of 82 and would've been able to keep Myers going forward. The only way Moore's plan ends up being the better one is if guys like Butler and Gordon have MVP-level seasons, Shields is the AL Cy Young, and their borderline-horrible starters become average-to-slightly above average innings-eaters a la Garland or Floyd for us in recent years, enabling them to sneak into the playoffs and make a WS run. It's just so unlikely.

johnnyg83
12-12-2012, 04:19 PM
Y
The only way Moore's plan ends up being the better one is if guys like Butler and Gordon have MVP-level seasons, Shields is the AL Cy Young, and their borderline-horrible starters become average-to-slightly above average innings-eaters a la Garland or Floyd for us in recent years, enabling them to sneak into the playoffs and make a WS run. It's just so unlikely.

Only way? HYPER-BOLIC (clap, clap, clap,clap, clap)

The Royals FA money is not at the level to sign a Sanchez.

Shields has already stated he's open to an extension with the Royals and Miller is under control till 2016.

The offense will be OK if Hosmer and Moustakas hit like they were projected to as PROSPECTS. And Perez stays healthy all year.

And I like Myers but he is one year removed from a 254/353/393/745 line in AA ... some say due to nagging injuries.

The Royals needed pitching more than hitting. To acquire pitching you have to pay.

Lip Man 1
12-12-2012, 04:34 PM
The problem with the Royals isn't the G.M. It's the owner.

Lip

DSpivack
12-12-2012, 06:02 PM
Only way? HYPER-BOLIC (clap, clap, clap,clap, clap)

The Royals FA money is not at the level to sign a Sanchez.

Shields has already stated he's open to an extension with the Royals and Miller is under control till 2016.

The offense will be OK if Hosmer and Moustakas hit like they were projected to as PROSPECTS. And Perez stays healthy all year.

And I like Myers but he is one year removed from a 254/353/393/745 line in AA ... some say due to nagging injuries.

The Royals needed pitching more than hitting. To acquire pitching you have to pay.

The problem with the Royals isn't the G.M. It's the owner.

Lip
If they're too cheap to sign a free agent like Sanchez then why trade for Shields, who'll be paid $21 million over the next two seasons? They'll also be paying a mediocre starter in Jeremy Guthrie $20 million over the next two years, Jeff Francoeur (one of MLB's worst players in 2012) $7 million in 2013, and Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) $13 million in 2013.

Yes, David Glass has not been a good owner and is seen by many as cheap. But Dayton Moore has also misspent quite a bit of money there recently which has hurt the team. As others have said, this is the act of a desperate GM who does not have the luxury of planning for the long term.

johnnyg83
12-12-2012, 06:22 PM
If they're too cheap to sign a free agent like Sanchez then why trade for Shields, who'll be paid $21 million over the next two seasons? They'll also be paying a mediocre starter in Jeremy Guthrie $20 million over the next two years, Jeff Francoeur (one of MLB's worst players in 2012) $7 million in 2013, and Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) $13 million in 2013.

Yes, David Glass has not been a good owner and is seen by many as cheap. But Dayton Moore has also misspent quite a bit of money there recently which has hurt the team. As others have said, this is the act of a desperate GM who does not have the luxury of planning for the long term.

Do you pay attention to what the market is for starting pitching? Did you see Ryan Dempster rejected a 2 year, $25 million offer? Ryan "35 y.o., 5.09 ERA in Texas" Dempster.

I'd say those (pitchers) will all be bargains compared to the commitment it takes to get Sanchez. Especially to pitch in KC, who would likely have to overpay. I'll take two SPs in Guthrie and Shields for what you'll have to pay Sanchez.

And they need a "win now" attitude because the "wait for the future" BS has been going on since 1994.

KC used to be a baseball town. This is the most excited I've heard people around here since 2003.

I want them to win baseball games this season, not best farm system.

DSpivack
12-12-2012, 07:02 PM
Do you pay attention to what the market is for starting pitching? Did you see Ryan Dempster rejected a 2 year, $25 million offer? Ryan "35 y.o., 5.09 ERA in Texas" Dempster.

I'd say those (pitchers) will all be bargains compared to the commitment it takes to get Sanchez. Especially to pitch in KC, who would likely have to overpay. I'll take two SPs in Guthrie and Shields for what you'll have to pay Sanchez.

And they need a "win now" attitude because the "wait for the future" BS has been going on since 1994.

KC used to be a baseball town. This is the most excited I've heard people around here since 2003.

I want them to win baseball games this season, not best farm system.

The only thing I think they accomplished is to maybe improve to be an 80-win team.

JB98
12-12-2012, 07:05 PM
As doub and others have pointed out most prospects, even the highly regarded ones, don't work out. I still like to have a decent farm system if for no other reason than it can help you great some proven players in return for your young talent. I think this is a good move by KC, and with the blockbuster three team trade involving the Indians, who appeared to help themselves too, where does that leave our team?

Still the second-best team on paper in the AL Central behind Detroit.

The Sox still have better pitching from top to bottom than both Kansas City and Cleveland. Better lineup, too, IMO.

DSpivack
12-12-2012, 07:51 PM
Still the second-best team on paper in the AL Central behind Detroit.

The Sox still have better pitching from top to bottom than both Kansas City and Cleveland. Better lineup, too, IMO.
I agree and I don't think it's close.

johnnyg83
12-12-2012, 09:57 PM
I agree and I don't think it's close.

I don't. Starting pitching definitely an edge to the sox, bullpen definitely an edge to the royals.

Holland, Herrera, Collins and crow are studs. I like Nate jones and crain, Thornton is a year older, Addison reed didn't prove much to me last year. I love veal's line but he doesn't have the history that he royals do.

Hendu
12-12-2012, 11:23 PM
The only thing I think they accomplished is to maybe improve to be an 80-win team.
Agreed. I like the move only if it's just the opening salvo to a couple other trades/signings. Hopefully that's the case. If not...what does this trade really do for them when Shields leaves in a couple years?

johnnyg83
12-13-2012, 12:22 AM
Agreed. I like the move only if it's just the opening salvo to a couple other trades/signings. Hopefully that's the case. If not...what does this trade really do for them when Shields leaves in a couple years?
What positions on the Sox would you rather have a WhiteSox instead of Royal?

1b: Hosmer v. Konerko = Konerko
2b: Beckham v. Giovetllla= Beckham maybe
ss: escobar v. ramirex = escobar
3b = moustakas v. keppinger = moustakas
lf = vicideo v. gordon = gordon
cf = de aza v. cain = cain
rf = rios v. frenchy = rios
dh = butler v. dunn = butler
c = perez v. flowers = MEGA perez

That's six of nine I'd rather have royals. And giving the benefit to Beckham. And Hosmer certainly has a brighter future than Konerko.

Shields v. Sale = Sale
Guthrie v. Peavy = Peavy
Floyd v. Santana = Floyd
Davis v. Quintana = push
Danks v. Chen = Danks (maybe)


Hocevar vs. Santiago = Santiago
Herrera vs. Veal = Herrera
Crain vs. Crow = Crow
Thornton vs.Collins = Collins
Reed vs. Holland = Holland

Then they have Paulino, Duffy, Lamb, Mendozea

Hochevar .. worth a laugh

CoopaLoop
12-13-2012, 01:12 AM
I


How are they less frightening now? Was Myers expected to carry them next season? Was 300-400 innings-ish of the Royals 4th and 5th starter merry go round last year so much more intimidating that the 220 IP Shields will give you and whatever Davis will, as well?

Because Shields is under control for two seasons and isn't turning that franchise around. He is a solid number two pitcher and that's it. Myers is already an upgrade over Frenchy which is a huge need by the way. So you gave up three out of your four best prospects for a good pitcher and a bullpen arm. Congrats. If you are the Reds, I get it, if you are the Royals I have no idea what you are doing.

Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html), from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.


2001

Josh Hamilton (#1)
Corey Patterson (#2)
Sean Burroughs (#6)
Ichiro (#9)
Nick Johnson (#10)

2002

Hank Blalock (#3)
Sean Burroughs (#4)
Carlos Pena (#5)
Joe Mauer (#7)
Wilson Betemit (#8)

2003

Mark Teixeira (#1)
Rocco Baldelli (#2)
Jose Reyes (#3)
Joe Mauer (#4)
Brandon Phillips (#7)

2004

Joe Mauer (#1)
BJ Upton (#2)
Delmon Young (#3)
Rickie Weeks (#5)
Alex Rios (#6)

2005

Joe Mauer (#1)
Delmon Young (#3)
Ian Stewart (#4)
Joel Guzman (#5)
Casey Kotchman (#6)

By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.

She's list is a better comparison than yours and even yours has very few "busts" on it.

johnnyg83
12-13-2012, 07:07 AM
Because Shields is under control for two seasons and isn't turning that franchise around. He is a solid number two pitcher and that's it. Myers is already an upgrade over Frenchy which is a huge need by the way. So you gave up three out of your four best prospects for a good pitcher and a bullpen arm. Congrats. If you are the Reds, I get it, if you are the Royals I have no idea what you are doing.



She's list is a better comparison than yours and even yours has very few "busts" on it.

Because they were deep in prospects and light on starting pitching. Trade from a strength to fill a weakness. And Montgomery has fallen from grace like a meteor here, he needed a change of scenery and a GPS to find the plate. He's not a top prospect here after the past two years.

doublem23
12-13-2012, 08:13 AM
Because Shields is under control for two seasons and isn't turning that franchise around. He is a solid number two pitcher and that's it. Myers is already an upgrade over Frenchy which is a huge need by the way. So you gave up three out of your four best prospects for a good pitcher and a bullpen arm. Congrats. If you are the Reds, I get it, if you are the Royals I have no idea what you are doing.



She's list is a better comparison than yours and even yours has very few "busts" on it.

Of course she's list is better for your argument; whenever you get to artificially select a smaller amount of names it almost always works out in your own favor. I've just showed you 5 years of the absolute best prospects in baseball. 20 names. 7 of them are busts. That's a 35% failure rate, AGAIN, of the very best prospects in baseball.

shes
12-13-2012, 11:31 AM
Only way? HYPER-BOLIC (clap, clap, clap,clap, clap)


It's not hyperbole at all unless you think a 72-win team can miraculously turn things around by simply adding James Shields and a couple #5 starters. For them to contend, they need everything to go their way. They don't have anywhere near the talent of a team like Detroit. It's not exaggeration, just the facts.

You say they couldn't afford a guy like Sanchez, but they absolutely could have if they hadn't thrown money away on Guthrie and Santana. And you of course glossed over the other thing I said, that they could have kept Myers and traded lesser prospects for a guy like Gavin Floyd -- you're telling me that wouldn't have been a MUCH better decision had they done that?

There are so many other viable things KC could've done other than trading the MiLB POTY to get better this year. That's all I'm trying to say.

johnnyg83
12-13-2012, 11:47 AM
Fair enough.

I'd rather have Shields than Sanchez. I'd rather have Shields than Floyd.

And they didn't need one SP, they needed four.

DSpivack
12-13-2012, 11:49 AM
It's not hyperbole at all unless you think a 72-win team can miraculously turn things around by simply adding James Shields and a couple #5 starters. For them to contend, they need everything to go their way. They don't have anywhere near the talent of a team like Detroit. It's not exaggeration, just the facts.

You say they couldn't afford a guy like Sanchez, but they absolutely could have if they hadn't thrown money away on Guthrie and Santana. And you of course glossed over the other thing I said, that they could have kept Myers and traded lesser prospects for a guy like Gavin Floyd -- you're telling me that wouldn't have been a MUCH better decision had they done that?

There are so many other viable things KC could've done other than trading the MiLB POTY to get better this year. That's all I'm trying to say.

Prospects are never a sure thing. You know what probably is a sure thing, however? That paying Jeff Francoeur $7 million to play RF is a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad idea.

DSpivack
12-13-2012, 11:55 AM
Fair enough.

I'd rather have Shields than Sanchez. I'd rather have Shields than Floyd.

And they didn't need one SP, they needed four.
You have to look at it, however, as Shields vs Sanchez (Floyd, whomever) and Myers. I'd rather overpay Sanchez at SP and have Myers making the minimum in RF than trade for Shields and have Francoeur in RF for $7 million (and some cheaper free agent SP, or Montgomery or Odorizzi in the long-term) and Ervin Santana in the rotation for $13 million.

Basically, I think a bunch of bad contracts given out in past years and in this offseason forced Dayton Moore's hand into making a move that, while it might pay off to have a team approaching .500 in 2013, is a spectacularly bad decision for the long term for Kansas City. By 2015, they might have Davis in the rotation or pen still; but Shields could get a bigger contract elsewhere; while Myers is just getting arbitration for the first time Tampa after a couple solid years in RF; Francoeur could be out of the sport altogether; while Odorizzi and Montgomery might be having some success for the Rays (and as Doub and others have pointed out, perhaps less Montgomery there and more Odorizzi).

JB98
12-13-2012, 12:28 PM
What positions on the Sox would you rather have a WhiteSox instead of Royal?

1b: Hosmer v. Konerko = Konerko
2b: Beckham v. Giovetllla= Beckham maybe
ss: escobar v. ramirex = escobar
3b = moustakas v. keppinger = moustakas
lf = vicideo v. gordon = gordon
cf = de aza v. cain = cain
rf = rios v. frenchy = rios
dh = butler v. dunn = butler
c = perez v. flowers = MEGA perez

That's six of nine I'd rather have royals. And giving the benefit to Beckham. And Hosmer certainly has a brighter future than Konerko.

What?

The Royals have all these awesome hitters, yet they were still 12th in the league in runs scored, while the Sox were fourth.

Unlike a lot of people here, I do like the Shields trade for KC. But I don't think the Royals have as good a lineup as the Sox. No way. I'd be willing to bet you the Sox score more runs than KC again this year.

Obviously, the Royals are younger and therefore have more future upside. But this isn't about the future. It's about right now.

And, BTW, Giavotella had one home run and 15 RBIs in 53 games last year. For all of Beckham's faults, he's clearly the more accomplished player. Ramirez was more productive than Escobar was last year, even in a down season, and Keppinger hit about 80 points higher than Moustakas and had a higher OPS as well.

P.S., De Aza is a better player than Cain too.

There has to be some reason the Sox scored so many more runs than the Royals, and it's not because KC is better than them at six of nine positions.

shes
12-13-2012, 12:36 PM
And they didn't need one SP, they needed four.

Well on that we can agree, and looking at their roster they have maybe two starters that should be starting playoff games. That's only okay if you've got a murderer's row on offense. They've unfortunately got something closer to the opposite.

johnnyg83
12-13-2012, 02:29 PM
What?
.

Point made on Beckham. Giovatelli has been a disappointment.

As far as offense , they had the third most hits in the AL and close to the Sox in XBHs.

Francouer and Hosmer went from 20 Hrs/87 RBIs and 19 hrs/78 rbis in 2011 to 16/49 and 14/60 respectively. That's 50+ runs right there. They also hit into a lot of DPs.

And let's not forget defense: Cain, Gordon, Escobar, Hosmer, Perez could all win gold gloves by the time they're done. Who on the Sox can we say that about? Beckham?

JB98
12-13-2012, 05:39 PM
Point made on Beckham. Giovatelli has been a disappointment.

As far as offense , they had the third most hits in the AL and close to the Sox in XBHs.

Francouer and Hosmer went from 20 Hrs/87 RBIs and 19 hrs/78 rbis in 2011 to 16/49 and 14/60 respectively. That's 50+ runs right there. They also hit into a lot of DPs.

And let's not forget defense: Cain, Gordon, Escobar, Hosmer, Perez could all win gold gloves by the time they're done. Who on the Sox can we say that about? Beckham?

You are really overrating these people. The Royals had the second most errors in the league last year (113), just one back of Tampa Bay (114). They were last in the league in defensive efficiency and last in the league in fielding percentage.

They lost 90 games for a reason. They really were not good in any area, and while I like the addition of Shields, I think their ceiling is mediocrity for 2013. Not that it's a bad thing. Mediocrity would be a big step forward for the Royals.

The Sox were second in fielding percentage, fifth in defensive efficiency and committed the fewest errors in the league. By both statistics and the eye test, they were a far superior defensive club than the Royals.

CoopaLoop
12-13-2012, 08:07 PM
Of course she's list is better for your argument; whenever you get to artificially select a smaller amount of names it almost always works out in your own favor. I've just showed you 5 years of the absolute best prospects in baseball. 20 names. 7 of them are busts. That's a 35% failure rate, AGAIN, of the very best prospects in baseball.

Hank Blalock made two all star teams. He is not a bust at all.

That's 5 busts out of 20.

And why did you stop at 2005 by the way?

johnnyg83
12-13-2012, 08:59 PM
You are really overrating these people. The Royals had the second most errors in the league last year (113), just one back of Tampa Bay (114). They were last in the league in defensive efficiency and last in the league in fielding percentage.

They lost 90 games for a reason. They really were not good in any area, and while I like the addition of Shields, I think their ceiling is mediocrity for 2013. Not that it's a bad thing. Mediocrity would be a big step forward for the Royals.

The Sox were second in fielding percentage, fifth in defensive efficiency and committed the fewest errors in the league. By both statistics and the eye test, they were a far superior defensive club than the Royals.

I've caught royals fever!

doublem23
12-13-2012, 11:03 PM
Hank Blalock made two all star teams. He is not a bust at all.

That's 5 busts out of 20.

And why did you stop at 2005 by the way?

Please, Blalock's career WAR is 11.6, less than Joe ****ing Crede, basically all of which was accrued in the 1st 2 seasons of his 9-year career. The guy was basically useless once he hit the ripe old age of 24.

Why not stop at 2005? I just needed a random 5-year sample which I think pretty definitely proved my point.

CoopaLoop
12-14-2012, 09:28 PM
Why not stop at 2005? I just needed a random 5-year sample which I think pretty definitely proved my point.

Or you picked a good window to make an argument.

(busts bolded)

1996
1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
2. Paul Wilson, rhp, Mets injury
3. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
4. Darin Erstad, of, Angels
5. Alan Benes, rhp, Cardinals

1997
1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
2. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos
3. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
4. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
5. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks

1998
1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates

1999
1. J.D. Drew, of, Cardinals
2. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
3. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
4. Bruce Chen, lhp, Braves
5. Brad Penny, rhp, Diamondbacks

2000
1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees

2006
1. Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays
2. Justin Upton, ss, Diamondbacks
3. Brandon Wood, ss, Angels
4. Jeremy Hermida, of, Marlins
5. Stephen Drew, ss, Diamondbacks

2007
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp, Red Sox
2. Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals
3. Delmon Young, of, Devil
4. Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
5. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds

2008
1. Jay Bruce of, Reds
2. Evan Longoria 3b, Rays
3. Joba Chamberlain rhp, Yankees
4. Clay Buchholz rhp, Red Sox
5. Colby Rasmus of, Cardinals

2009
1. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
2. David Price, lhp, Rays
3. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
4. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Braves
5. Jason Heyward, of, Braves

2010
1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals
3. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins
4. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees potential bust
5. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles

I will take my chances with guys rated that high when the return doesn't put my squad over the top.

Boondock Saint
12-14-2012, 10:02 PM
Or you picked a good window to make an argument.


I will take my chances with guys rated that high when the return doesn't put my squad over the top.

Kerry Wood, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ben Grieve, Rick Ankiel, Nick Johnson, Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain don't count as busts to you?

CoopaLoop
12-17-2012, 08:49 PM
Kerry Wood, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ben Grieve, Rick Ankiel, Nick Johnson, Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain don't count as busts to you?

Kerry Wood nearly brought the Cubs to a world series. Sure his career didn't reach it's full potential, but he had a good run while healthy. I wouldn't label him a bust.

Dice K doesn't really fit in with the normal prospects. That was a free agent signing really.

Grieve I suppose could be, but he a decent 5 year run and won the rookie of the year.

I thought Ankiel's 2007-2009 was better than it actually is, I will concede that.

Hughes isn't a bust, he is still a part of the rotation and Nick Johnson didn't live up to the hype, but every prospect that doesn't become a star isn't a bust.

Stephen Drew's 2006-2011 is hardly bust worthy. He had a WAR above 1.5 5/6 seasons.