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View Full Version : Sox vs. Tigers Four Game Megaseries - Predictions


TheOldRoman
09-09-2012, 06:33 PM
The background

Since slinking out of Detroit with a tie in the standings last Sunday, the Sox have gone 3-3, losing a game in which they scored 9 runs and handing away two winnable games against the "up-and-coming" Royals. However, the Tigers went 1-5, allowing the Sox a two game lead in the standings.

Since heading into Detroit for the July sweep, the Sox have gone 25-22. The Tigers have gone 24-22. That means that, even including an inexcusable and deplorable 2-7 record against the Royals during that stretch, the Sox have gone 25-16 against teams other than Detroit. The Tigers, on the other hand, have gone 18-22 against teams other than the Sox over that stretch. What does that mean? It means that the Sox are probably the better team overall, but they have allowed Detroit to stay in this race by losing six games in the standings head-to-head. If the Sox would have won just two of those six games, they would be up by six games now.

This series

Quintana vs. Porcello
Peavy vs. Fister
Liriano vs. Scherzer
Sale vs. Verlander

If the Tigers sweep, the Sox will be in trouble, down two games with 19 games left.
If the Tigers win 3/4, the teams will be tied with 19 games left.
If the teams split, Sox still up two with four games burned off the schedule.
If the Sox win 3/4, they will be up four games.
If the Sox sweep, they are up six with 19 left and Jerry can order the champagne.

The Sox are in a position where the only disastrous outcome is getting swept. They NEED to win at least one game in this series. I am not at all confident for Monday's game with a gassed Quintana pitching for the Sox. As much as Verlander has struggled in recent starts against other teams, he is still an ace and always dominates the Sox. Peavy or Liriano need to step up.

I think the Tigers take 3/4, the teams are tied, and then the Tigers continue their descent while the Sox beat every team other than the Royals to win the division. I hope the Sox prove me wrong by winning a few extra games.

LITTLE NELL
09-09-2012, 07:17 PM
Would love to win 3 but it will probably be 2-2.

delben91
09-09-2012, 07:20 PM
I think the Sox win the first two and lost the last two.

Today's game notwithstanding, the bats started to come around ever so slightly this weekend. I'll take that as a good sign.

Foulke You
09-09-2012, 07:23 PM
I feel like we'll split. I think Quintana will surprise people on Monday. Tigers hit worse against lefties and they have never faced Quintana which will be an advantage for us.

Lip Man 1
09-09-2012, 07:33 PM
Since the Sox swept Seattle, to move 16 games over on August 26th, they have lost nine of 13. Six of those nine losses have come against teams in the division.

Detroit meanwhile has lost five of the last six. Two of those to a divisional opponent.

Both teams are heading south coming into this series...someone has to play well don't they? :?:

Lip

Dan H
09-09-2012, 07:56 PM
Predicting baseball is very hard, but I put the Tigers winning three only because I don't feel good about the Sox right now. Some fans sometimes have compared this team to other Sox divisional winners and I don't think there is a comparison. This is not an elite team. Then again, the Tigers aren't either. There is a possibility that the Sox can win three; I just don't see it happening.

voodoochile
09-09-2012, 08:05 PM
WOOT! I'm representing the entire Sox sweep voting bloc. You all can thank me come Thursday night when the Sox are up 6. :cool:

soxnut1018
09-09-2012, 08:11 PM
I think the Sox win 3 of 4. I'm basing that on absolutely nothing except blind optimism.

SI1020
09-09-2012, 08:12 PM
Predicting baseball is very hard, but I put the Tigers winning three only because I don't feel good about the Sox right now. Some fans sometimes have compared this team to other Sox divisional winners and I don't think there is a comparison. This is not an elite team. Then again, the Tigers aren't either. There is a possibility that the Sox can win three; I just don't see it happening. I agree with everything here.

Lip Man 1
09-09-2012, 08:25 PM
The intangible that I think the Tigers are probably saying to themselves goes something like this, "we've beaten these guys 10 of 12, we've got Verlander going in this series and they can't touch him and we've overcome a 6-0 hole to beat these guys in their ballpark. We'll be fine..."

It's up to the Sox to show that to be a fallacy.

Lip

hoosiersoxfan
09-09-2012, 08:34 PM
The background

Since slinking out of Detroit with a tie in the standings last Sunday, the Sox have gone 3-3, losing a game in which they scored 9 runs and handing away two winnable games against the "up-and-coming" Royals. However, the Tigers went 1-5, allowing the Sox a two game lead in the standings.

Since heading into Detroit for the July sweep, the Sox have gone 25-22. The Tigers have gone 24-22. That means that, even including an inexcusable and deplorable 2-7 record against the Royals during that stretch, the Sox have gone 25-16 against teams other than Detroit. The Tigers, on the other hand, have gone 18-22 against teams other than the Sox over that stretch. What does that mean? It means that the Sox are probably the better team overall, but they have allowed Detroit to stay in this race by losing six games in the standings head-to-head. If the Sox would have won just two of those six games, they would be up by six games now.

This series

Quintana vs. Porcello
Peavy vs. Fister
Liriano vs. Scherzer
Sale vs. Verlander

If the Tigers sweep, the Sox will be in trouble, down two games with 21 games left.
If the Tigers win 3/4, the teams will be tied with 21 games left.
If the teams split, Sox still up two with three games burned off the schedule.
If the Sox win 3/4, they will be up four games.
If the Sox sweep, they are up six with 21 left and Jerry can order the champagne.

The Sox are in a position where the only disastrous outcome is getting swept. They NEED to win at least one game in this series. I am not at all confident for Monday's game with a gassed Quintana pitching for the Sox. As much as Verlander has struggled in recent starts against other teams, he is still an ace and always dominates the Sox. Peavy or Liriano need to step up.

I think the Tigers take 3/4, the teams are tied, and then the Tigers continue their descent while the Sox beat every team other than the Royals to win the division. I hope the Sox prove me wrong by winning a few extra games.

It will actually be 19 games left after this series. Sox need to come out and hit Porcello hard tomorrow and set the tone for the series.

Need to at least split this series and I'll feel fairly confident going forward.

Moses_Scurry
09-09-2012, 08:42 PM
Game 1 is the key. They need to build some kind of momentum. I'm praying for a split.

Soxman219
09-09-2012, 08:43 PM
The only thing that should be on every Sox fan mind right now is SWEEP. I want the Tigers swept out of Chicago. The Sox have lost 7 straight games against Tigers in embarrassing fashion. If the Sox have any pride at all, they would show no fear and really put a stranglehold on this division!:mad: The fans are tried of losing to those cocky losers. I'm tried of seeing Valverde celebrating on the mound, seeing Tigers pitchers who are on the ropes and letting them off the hook, Verlander showing us up, and Porcello losing against everyone else except the Sox. It obvious they don't like the Sox too. So yeah, I think the Sox can and SHOULD sweep the Tigers. Both team have been playing mediocre lately and it's not like the Tigers have dominated the Sox.

StillMissOzzie
09-09-2012, 08:52 PM
Between the sweep last weekend and the limp dick situational hitting against the Royals, I don't think I am being a dark cloud / Debbie Downer to predict the Tigers winning 3 out of 4. That means they leave town tied for first.

A better showing against the Royals, which could have been a sweep and should have been 2 out of 3 would have me a whole lot more optimistic.

SMO
:angry::gulp:

Quentin08
09-09-2012, 08:55 PM
I think the Sox will win 3. The reason I'm optimistic is because the Sox have played much better in front of 30K+ fans at the Cell (12 - 2 this season). And it should be a playoff atmosphere at the Cell this week.

Marqhead
09-09-2012, 09:07 PM
I thought the plan was to throw Floyd this series? What happened to that?

gosox41
09-09-2012, 09:07 PM
WOOT! I'm representing the entire Sox sweep voting bloc. You all can thank me come Thursday night when the Sox are up 6. :cool:

If the Sox offense can execute fundamental baseball the next 4 games, we can pretty much wrap this thing up and stick a dagger in Detroit's heart.


Bob

CHISOXFAN13
09-09-2012, 09:21 PM
I thought the plan was to throw Floyd this series? What happened to that?

Still might happen Wednesday with liriano getting pushed back to the weekend.
Im assuming they will make that decision based on how Gavin feels tomorrow after throwing today.

Marqhead
09-09-2012, 09:25 PM
Still might happen Wednesday with liriano getting pushed back to the weekend.
Im assuming they will make that decision based on how Gavin feels tomorrow after throwing today.

Makes more sense. I guess I'd prefer Floyd over Liriano at this point. :shrug:

OmahaSoxFan
09-09-2012, 09:46 PM
I am thinking a SPLIT here, with the Sox winning the Monday and Thursday games... I see the Sox finally being able to get to Verlander on Thursday and Sale getting a nice W to salvage the series and keep the Sox up 2 games by Friday morning.

That said, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Tigers win 3 of 4, but I don't see a sweep here. Blind optimism here says the Sox get it together and win the series (or even sweep :o:), but I would be happy with a split the way they have played Detroit lately.

DumpJerry
09-09-2012, 09:48 PM
Predicting baseball is very hard,
When there is no churros option in a poll, it's damn impossible to predict.

Lip Man 1
09-09-2012, 10:20 PM
Quentin:

Getting a lot of fans for this series would be nice but even if that is the case how many will be from Detroit?

As I recall there seemed to be an awful lot of them in the park back in mid June.

Lip

russ99
09-09-2012, 10:23 PM
I'll go with Churros too, at the ballpark on Tuesday night.

Tomorrow's game is huge. The Sox have bounced back from bad series before. If they come back again and win tomorrow, I'd say the Sox with 3 of 4, if not, Tigers win 3-4 or sweep.

I hope the four days off recharged Youk's batteries a bit since he was looking beat up and fatigued the last few weeks. We need someone to step up big at the plate, so maybe it's him.

JasonFrasor54
09-09-2012, 10:29 PM
Last two series against the tigers I felt really optimistic but only to be let down. I hope we can win the series but Id be very happy with a split. My gut tells me we win one or get swept. I hope my gut is wrong.

guillensdisciple
09-10-2012, 12:56 AM
WOOT! I'm representing the entire Sox sweep voting bloc. You all can thank me come Thursday night when the Sox are up 6. :cool:

I joined you.

SephClone89
09-10-2012, 04:15 AM
Last two series against the tigers I felt really optimistic but only to be let down. I hope we can win the series but Id be very happy with a split. My gut tells me we win one or get swept. I hope my gut is wrong.

Awesome username.

Dibbs
09-10-2012, 07:12 AM
We will probably sneak one win in. As long as they don't sweep us I will be ecstatic.

amsteel
09-10-2012, 07:57 AM
Barring a Sox sweep (HA!) the division will come down to the last 5 games.

jdm2662
09-10-2012, 08:35 AM
After the Sox win tonight, I'm sure this team will be awesome again and people will be changing their predictions...

Hitmen77
09-10-2012, 08:38 AM
Predicting baseball is very hard, but I put the Tigers winning three only because I don't feel good about the Sox right now. Some fans sometimes have compared this team to other Sox divisional winners and I don't think there is a comparison. This is not an elite team. Then again, the Tigers aren't either. There is a possibility that the Sox can win three; I just don't see it happening.

We will probably sneak one win in. As long as they don't sweep us I will be ecstatic.

That's how I feel about our chances this series. I went with the Sox winning 1 of 4. Even with Detroit looking bad their last two series (vs. the Indians and Angels) and having a sub-par road record, I have very little confidence in the Sox being able to beat the Tigers right now.

I'm hoping the Sox can manage eek out one stinking win in a 4-game series at home. I won't be happy with that because it'll put us back into a tie with the Tigers, but at least it won't be as bad as a sweep. If the Sox get swept and fall 2 back, that'll be a huge nail in the coffin for this season. It'll be an embarrassing end to a season series in which the Tigers have totally owned us.

If the Sox can manage a split, that's a huge boost to odds for making the playoffs. We'll still be 2 games up and no more head-to-head games scheduled w/ Detroit. Yeah, a 3-1 series win would be awesome. If the Sox suddenly catch fire and sweep the Tigers then we'd have a 6 game lead w/ 19 games left. I don't see that happening, but the Sox definitely control their own destiny at this point.

Sweeping the Tigers is just a pipe dream IMO. I just don't have too much confidence in this team right now. If the best we can do in a pennant race with the game on the line is send total stiffs like Olmedo and Lopez to the plate, then Robin and the boys will be hitting the golf courses beginning October 4. This next 7 games in a row vs. the Tigers and the Royals could be brutal given the way the Sox have folded to these 2 teams all season long.

asindc
09-10-2012, 08:44 AM
Between the Tigers getting swept this past weekend (after losing 2 of 3 at home to Cleveland) and their limp dick situational hitting against LAAAAAA, I don't think I am being a pollyanna to predict the Sox winning 3 out of 4. That means the Tigers leave town down 4.

A better showing by the Tigers against Cleveland, which could have been a sweep for them and should have been 2 out of 3 for them, would have me a whole lot more pessimistic.

DonnieDarko
09-10-2012, 09:00 AM
Game 1 is the key. They need to build some kind of momentum. I'm praying for a split.

This.

That said, I'm thinking that this team gets swept. Ugh.

TheOldRoman
09-10-2012, 09:00 AM
After the Sox win tonight, I'm sure this team will be awesome again and people will be changing their predictions...Okay.

WhiteSox56
09-10-2012, 09:18 AM
Kittle is going to hate this, but I think the Sox need to get over the mental issue with playing Detroit. People keep saying that the Kittens aren't that good of a team, and in fact the Sox are a better team overall. Well why do we keep playing them like crap? Same with the pesky Royals. I don't know, I have a feeling whenever the Sox play the Royals or the Kittens now there's this feeling of "oh crap" with the Sox. There was a general agreement that the Sox couldn't beat the Twins for years, even though we had a better team. Seems like that was a mental issue, especially stepping into that damn dome. Looks like the Sox are over that, could be that the dome is no more. I would say that it really boils down to confidence with the Sox playing Detroit. Sox can survive this series, maybe take 3. Kittle, don't hate me too much now lol:D:

Madvora
09-10-2012, 09:36 AM
Kittle is going to hate this, but I think the Sox need to get over the mental issue with playing Detroit. People keep saying that the Kittens aren't that good of a team, and in fact the Sox are a better team overall. Well why do we keep playing them like crap? Same with the pesky Royals. I don't know, I have a feeling whenever the Sox play the Royals or the Kittens now there's this feeling of "oh crap" with the Sox. There was a general agreement that the Sox couldn't beat the Twins for years, even though we had a better team. Seems like that was a mental issue, especially stepping into that damn dome. Looks like the Sox are over that, could be that the dome is no more. I would say that it really boils down to confidence with the Sox playing Detroit. Sox can survive this series, maybe take 3. Kittle, don't hate me too much now lol:D:
For a while (years back) they couldn't beat anybody on the West coast, especially Oakland. Eventually they started winning against Seattle, then the Angels and A's.
I don't understand how these trends work. The losing trend can follow multiple teams full of different managers, coaches and players for years. The only thing consistent is the team name

WhiteSox56
09-10-2012, 09:53 AM
For a while (years back) they couldn't beat anybody on the West coast, especially Oakland. Eventually they started winning against Seattle, then the Angels and A's.
I don't understand how these trends work. The losing trend can follow multiple teams full of different managers, coaches and players for years. The only thing consistent is the team name

Yeah, and it's really been only recently we've been able to win on those dreaded west coast road trips.

Procol Harum
09-10-2012, 10:13 AM
When there is no churros option in a poll, it's damn impossible to predict.

A trenchant insight, indeed-- rigorous scientific polling principles must be maintained!

:bandance:

Nonetheless, I'm surprised to see the rose-colored vision of the world I'm seeing in most of these posts thus far. While I grant that the Tigers have been so awful that it would seem absolutely certain they would tank--the only team they seem able to beat is a Sox team that is playing badly itself. We have so many holes in our bats at the moment (want to keep the Sox off the scoreboard? Let them fill the bases with no outs.) and our pitching staff has had such trouble of late it seems like splitting would be a Grade B Miracle.

Of course I'd go nuts if they were to sweep the Tiggs or win 3 of 4, but more realistically, I'm hoping for a split, and praying for at least 1 of 4.

kittle42
09-10-2012, 10:15 AM
Split. It's hard to win 4-game series.

Foulke You
09-10-2012, 10:54 AM
Quentin:

Getting a lot of fans for this series would be nice but even if that is the case how many will be from Detroit?

As I recall there seemed to be an awful lot of them in the park back in mid June.

Lip
Getting a lot of Detroit fans at Chicago sporting events is unavoidable these days since there are so many transplanted former Detroit area residents living in Chicagoland now. They all came here to get jobs. When the Tigers played the Cubs at Wrigley earlier this year, it was easily 60% Tigers fans in the crowd. Blackhawks/Wings games always have a ton of Detroit fans in the crowd too. Unfortunately, there will probably be at least a few thousand Tiger fans in attendance tonight. Probably not as many if it were a weekend series though.

Looks like advance ticket sales are pretty solid for tonight's game. Looks like 85-90% of the lower bowl has been sold and about half the upper deck based on the ticket map. I'm expecting 28-32K in the house tonight. I'll be in the bleachers hoping to catch many Sox HRs.:cool:

harwar
09-10-2012, 11:13 AM
I think that Quintana will bounce back .. Peavy and Sale will step up like the great pitchers that they are .. Liriano will be the only loss, and not because i think that he will get lit up, but because Scherzer has been that good .. this is the biggest series to date,and at home,and i fully expect The White Sox to all show up for this one ..

bunkaroo
09-10-2012, 11:29 AM
I'll be there tonight - snagged $30 tickets 30th row behind home plate a couple months back.

Debating on whether I'll buy tickets for Thursday night while I'm there.

Gotta keep my Cell win streak alive!

#1swisher
09-10-2012, 12:10 PM
That's right, I voted SOX will win all four! :gulp:

Lip Man 1
09-10-2012, 12:13 PM
Sox 56:

And don't forget their record at Skydome over a three or four year stretch until this year.

Oakland, Minnesota, Toronto in the past, now Detroit...they are running out of cities don't you think?

Lip

WhiteSox56
09-10-2012, 12:56 PM
Sox 56:

And don't forget their record at Skydome over a three or four year stretch until this year.

Oakland, Minnesota, Toronto in the past, now Detroit...they are running out of cities don't you think?

Lip

Good point Lip. Forgot about the trips to the Skydome. Man I don't like that place either, until more recently:D: Maybe this series we can end this garbage with Detroit too!

sox1970
09-10-2012, 01:03 PM
Either team sweeps- will win the division

3 out 4 for either team- better position to win the division

Split - pick 'em

Epic battle between the 7th and 8th best teams in the AL begins tonight.

I picked Tigers win 3 out of 4, but if the Sox win tonight, they'll split.

thomas35forever
09-10-2012, 01:13 PM
I'm tempted to say series split, but our offensive ineptitude lately makes me think strong pitching might not be enough to make that possible. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Detroit takes 3 on the South Side.

shingo10
09-10-2012, 01:17 PM
Split. It's hard to win 4-game series.


True but the Sox have been good at losing them this year...Baltimore twice, Boston...feels like there have been more.

Whatever the Sox have been doing against KC and Detroit all year (several years for KC) they need to change tonight. Just execute.

TheOldRoman
09-10-2012, 01:21 PM
Either team sweeps- will win the divisionI don't think a Detroit sweep means they will win the division for certain. Look at the stats from my first post - the last third of the season, the Tigers have been under .500 against teams other than the Sox, yet have stayed in the race due to picking up six games head-to-head. It would certainly be an up-hill battle being down two games with 19 left, but I could see the Sox being three games better than the Tigers over that stretch. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, though.

sox1970
09-10-2012, 01:33 PM
I don't think a Detroit sweep means they will win the division for certain. Look at the stats from my first post - the last third of the season, the Tigers have been under .500 against teams other than the Sox, yet have stayed in the race due to picking up six games head-to-head. It would certainly be an up-hill battle being down two games with 19 left, but I could see the Sox being three games better than the Tigers over that stretch. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, though.

A 2-game lead for the Tigers coming off a 4-game sweep of the Sox, plus an easier remaining schedule, they'll probably win it. If the Sox lose the next four, I don't think anyone is going to expect any miracle turnaround anyway.

How about the Sox win tonight, and then they show up tomorrow, and they win that too? Just stay in 1st every day.

WisSoxFan
09-10-2012, 01:44 PM
I posted prior to the KC series that the next 10 (through our trip to MN) was where I thought the Sox needed to make some hay. I thought they needed to pick up at least two games in that stretch and be three up going into the final 16 because the Tigers schedule is easier IMO. The Sox picked up one (which is what I had hoped) over the weekend, but what could have been...

If we can split this series and pick up one while we're in MN and they are in Cleveland I would be thrilled to death to head into the final 16 with a 3 game lead.

But live in the moment I guess. I look forward to tonight's game and it's on MLB so I can see it.

Go Sox!

TheOldRoman
09-10-2012, 10:15 PM
After Quintana's clutch start and Rios' huge homer, the Sox are up three games with 22 remaining. You can't say enough about how huge this game was for the series. The pressure is off the Sox a little, knowing that the worst case scenario now has them tied for first after Thursday. At the very least, we know that the Sox won't turn to Sale needing him to beat Verlander to avoid the sweep.

Peavy gets the start tomorrow. Let's turn this win into momentum and make the Tigers sweat.

hawkjt
09-11-2012, 11:51 AM
After Quintana's clutch start and Rios' huge homer, the Sox are up three games with 22 remaining. You can't say enough about how huge this game was for the series. The pressure is off the Sox a little, knowing that the worst case scenario now has them tied for first after Thursday. At the very least, we know that the Sox won't turn to Sale needing him to beat Verlander to avoid the sweep.

Peavy gets the start tomorrow. Let's turn this win into momentum and make the Tigers sweat.

Last nite was the biggest game of the year. Now,tonite is the biggest game of the year....September pennant race baseball....love it!!:D: