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mcm3312
07-07-2012, 12:47 AM
At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

De Aza
Youkdawg
AJ
Paulie
Rios
Dunn
Tanky Tank
Alexei
Beckham

GO

Boondock Saint
07-07-2012, 12:49 AM
At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

De Aza
Youkdawg
AJ
Paulie
Rios
Dunn
Tanky Tank
Alexei
Beckham

GO

You do realize that the Sox are kicking ass right now, right?

edit: Also, Youkdawg and Tanky Tank? Seriously?

WhiteSox5187
07-07-2012, 12:54 AM
I am not a fan of Dunn batting third but I see no reason to change the lineup right now.

PeteWard
07-07-2012, 01:42 AM
Share your concern but don't mess with things while the Sox are so hot.

Nellie_Fox
07-07-2012, 01:43 AM
... Also, Youkdawg and Tanky Tank? Seriously?:fail:

WLL1855
07-07-2012, 01:56 AM
.. but we all know Rios is a head case.

If he keeps hitting over .300 and plays great defense in right field he can be a head case for as long as he wants.

Lets leave the managing to the guys who have led us to the top of the division.

voodoochile
07-07-2012, 02:37 AM
I wouldn't mess with a damned thing.

Period.

LITTLE NELL
07-07-2012, 06:29 AM
I guess we should not make any moves right now but Dunn is driving me crazy with all these strikeouts. Are there any other #3 hitters in MLB batting .210 with a gazillion Ks.

white sox bill
07-07-2012, 08:20 AM
I guess we should not make any moves right now but Dunn is driving me crazy with all these strikeouts. Are there any other #3 hitters in MLB batting .210 with a gazillion Ks.
Yea Dunns a pretty much sure thing for a whiff. At least he doesn't hit into very many DP's.

slavko
07-07-2012, 08:36 AM
This beats "Break Up The Team," "Fire Greg Walker," and "We Have No Farm System" threads doesn't it? Life is good.

kobo
07-07-2012, 09:00 AM
Yea Dunns a pretty much sure thing for a whiff. At least he doesn't hit into very many DP's.
He's good for either a K, a walk, or a homerun. The strikeouts are nothing new as it's always been part of his game. I'd like to see his average about 40 points higher but I don't think he needs to be dropped in the order. I think PK gives him some pretty good protection and dropping him in the order could lead to a drop in production for Dunn.

DickAllen72
07-07-2012, 09:47 AM
I am not a fan of Dunn batting third but I see no reason to change the lineup right now.
Dunn is batting something like .150 against LHP. Maybe he should move lower in the order, at least when facing a left handed starter.

Frater Perdurabo
07-07-2012, 10:14 AM
Dunn is batting something like .150 against LHP. Maybe he should move lower in the order, at least when facing a left handed starter.

Maybe Dunn should get more off days against LHP. Not all the time, but sometimes.

hawkjt
07-07-2012, 10:25 AM
WINNING!!! Don't change a thing.

FoulTerritory
07-07-2012, 11:17 AM
You do realize that the Sox are kicking ass right now, right?

edit: Also, Youkdawg and Tanky Tank? Seriously?

That doesn't mean as a manager you get complacent and stop looking for ways to improve and assure continued ass-kicking. The Sox are kicking ass despite Dunn being mostly terrible for the past month. Even his OPB has dropped down quite a bit.

In general, I'm no fan of tinkering, but I think AJ or Rios should bat third because what the poster said is true -- in the 3 hole we're seeing Dunn kill a lot of rallies, and if you want to win this division, we're going to need as many rallies as we can.

Myself, I prefer to move Rios to 3 than AJ, and Rios did do well in the 3 hole in 2010 so I wouldn't think it would be much of a head-case issue. But either way, you are not maximizing the potential of this lineup with 250+ K's and a 210 average in the 3 hole, despite the homers and walks (the walks are losing value as his OBP continues to drop).

I don't think any other facets of the lineup should even be considered for change though.

Just one man's opinion.

Zakath
07-07-2012, 11:35 AM
At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.


We do? :scratch:

Zakath
07-07-2012, 11:45 AM
I guess we should not make any moves right now but Dunn is driving me crazy with all these strikeouts. Are there any other #3 hitters in MLB batting .210 with a gazillion Ks.

What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

34rancher
07-07-2012, 11:53 AM
What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

So he has more strikeouts with runners on than anyone else on the team? How does his line compare on team?

FoulTerritory
07-07-2012, 11:56 AM
What's more important is not how many times he strikes out, it's WHEN he strikes out.

So far this year:
Bases empty - 29-164, 37 BB, 81 K, .177 AVG, .328 OBP, .767 OPS
Runners on - 31-122, 29 BB, 49 K, .254 AVG, .396 OBP, 1.003 OPS

Historically, Dunn hits .243 with bases empty and .241 with runners on. To see him hitting 77 points HIGHER when there are runners on is a big positive.

Another big number for him - With men on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he's hitting .571 (8-14).

These are interesting numbers. I appreciate the concrete evidence and admit that it makes the case stronger for Dunn remaining in the 3 hole (way more logical than the "we're doing good so don't change" argument).

It just seems like over the last month there has been a lot of slippage from him, even in RBI situations. I don't have numbers to back that up though.

Its weird, because generally I'm very optimistic about the Sox, but when I watch Dunn bat now I start getting flashbacks to last year. It just looks like, with his pull approach and correspondent slump, that he is at risk of a serious backslide.

TheVulture
07-07-2012, 12:05 PM
I'd rather have the good hitters batting behind Dunn to clean up the runners Dunn leaves on or to punish the pitcher for letting Dunn walk. I doubt Dunn or Konerko would have been this effective thus far if Ventura had even just decided to switch those two from the start. And as much as I love what AJ has done with the bat, I'm not sure we can count on him to deliver the same numbers the rest of the way. This hot season has to be grinding on even a tough catcher like AJ.

Zakath
07-07-2012, 12:09 PM
So he has more strikeouts with runners on than anyone else on the team? How does his line compare on team?

Compare it to Paulie, AJ, and Alex:

Paulie:
Bases empty - 54-157, 17 BB, 21 K, .344 AVG, .415 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Runners on - 39-121, 15 BB, 21 K, .322 AVG, .401 OBP, .873 OPS

AJ:
Bases empty - 37-147, 10 BB, 19 K, .252, .299, .769
Runners on - 37-110, 8 BB, 18 K, .336, .385, 1.003

Alex:
Bases empty - 46-170, 4 BB, 33 K, .271, .299, .752
Runners on - 52-141, 9 BB, 10 K, .369, .405, .980

The team as a whole is 3rd in MLB in average with runners on at .284 (only Colorado and Texas are better) and 12th best in strikeouts with runners on (245; KC's the best with 217 while St. Louis is the worst with 294). With bases empty, we're 21st in MLB at .242 and 7th worst in strikeouts (393; Pittsburgh's the worst with 453 while the best is KC with 288).

Big crooked numbers win games, and you need to string hits together to get them. Hitting with guys on is the only way to do that, and that's a good reason why we're 9 games over.

white sox bill
07-07-2012, 12:12 PM
We knew what we were getting w/Dunn, the last pitch thrown to him is usually in the catchers mitt or in the seats. I wish his average was in the .250 range though. Paulie has cooled off but we cant expect him to hit .400 all yr

That being said, I'm fine w/the lineup

34rancher
07-07-2012, 12:28 PM
Compare it to Paulie, AJ, and Alex:

Paulie:
Bases empty - 54-157, 17 BB, 21 K, .344 AVG, .415 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Runners on - 39-121, 15 BB, 21 K, .322 AVG, .401 OBP, .873 OPS

AJ:
Bases empty - 37-147, 10 BB, 19 K, .252, .299, .769
Runners on - 37-110, 8 BB, 18 K, .336, .385, 1.003

Alex:
Bases empty - 46-170, 4 BB, 33 K, .271, .299, .752
Runners on - 52-141, 9 BB, 10 K, .369, .405, .980

The team as a whole is 3rd in MLB in average with runners on at .284 (only Colorado and Texas are better) and 12th best in strikeouts with runners on (245; KC's the best with 217 while St. Louis is the worst with 294). With bases empty, we're 21st in MLB at .242 and 7th worst in strikeouts (393; Pittsburgh's the worst with 453 while the best is KC with 288).

Big crooked numbers win games, and you need to string hits together to get them. Hitting with guys on is the only way to do that, and that's a good reason why we're 9 games over.

Wow. Alex is ridiculous this year. AJ really helping him too behind him. I agree about the crooked numbers.
What I wish I could find is how many of dunns walks lead to runs. 66 walks and 35 hits have led to him scoring 22 times. I wonder though how many times the runner on base ahead of him when he walks have scored when he hasn't?

Tragg
07-07-2012, 12:31 PM
At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

GO
AJ isn't a 3 hole hitter.
I don't think Rios is a head case in the sense that he can't take change or pressure; I think it's more of an effort issue. Switch Dunn and Rios.

TomBradley72
07-07-2012, 12:43 PM
At what point do we swap Pierzynski and Dunn in the lineup. Similar OBP and obviously AJ makes a lot more contact/kills less rallys. I would say swap Dunn and Rios, but we all know Rios is a head case.

De Aza
Youkdawg
AJ
Paulie
Rios
Dunn
Tanky Tank
Alexei
Beckham

GO

Kind of bull**** to rip on Rios- the guy has been our best all around player this year- hit, hit for power, run, field,throw- he's been great and completely consistent.

Last year was a disaster for him- as it was for Dunn, Peavy and alot of other players on this team-

As far as changing the line up- I wouldn't touch it unless Dunn's slump continues and the overall team starts to struggle- but not now.

kufram
07-07-2012, 12:58 PM
I think if Robin's idea is to have a plan and stick with it then we have to acknowledge that it is a good idea. He saw what he needed to see to stick with Beckham and Viciedo, and others, at the start of the season and it has worked out pretty well so far. Taking where he has steered us so far into account I'm happy for him to stick with his lineup and I'll be happy if he decides to change it.

A manager can't react to every trend in a hitter's season. Baseball is a streaky sport... especially hitting. If you change it up whenever one guy in the lineup is on a little slide or on a hot streak for that matter you end up without a lineup... just a list of names that keep changing.

Madscout
07-07-2012, 01:16 PM
I'd be interested to see how many runs we're getting from the bottom half of the order. Suppose moving Dunn messes with that production. Anecdotally, I seem to remember a lot of runs coming off of AJ's bat, Rios, and Alexi's...perhaps screwing with that is not a good idea?

In the end, it doesn't matter where you score them, but I'd rather have the lineup tough from top to bottom...and it seems to be as such as it is now.

kobo
07-07-2012, 01:59 PM
AJ isn't a 3 hole hitter.
I don't think Rios is a head case in the sense that he can't take change or pressure; I think it's more of an effort issue. Switch Dunn and Rios.
Then you have 2 left handed hitters batting 5 and 6. I don't like that because then in a late game situation the opposing team could bring in a LOOGY to face Dunn and AJ.

Tragg
07-07-2012, 02:08 PM
Then you have 2 left handed hitters batting 5 and 6. I don't like that because then in a late game situation the opposing team could bring in a LOOGY to face Dunn and AJ.
Good point.
Leave them alone then. Dunn's walks make him okay in the 3 hole. AJ just doesn't get on base enough to bat 3rd.

TDog
07-09-2012, 01:38 PM
Good point.
Leave them alone then. Dunn's walks make him okay in the 3 hole. AJ just doesn't get on base enough to bat 3rd.

I don't know that Dunn even gets on base enough to bat third. I think he bats third to give the Sox a chance to get on the board in the first inning with a home run.

Dunn's numbers are skewed by a relatively quick start. He was hitting around .230 through May when De Aza was getting on base a lot. Even his on-base percentage is more than 20 points lower since the end of May, while his batting average has dropped about 20 points. His batting average is well below .200 since the end of May, although it is still better than what he was doing in June and early July last year. He also was striking out at a lower rate early in the season. He is hitting more home runs, of course, but he is striking out at a greater rate than last year. He is on pace to shatter the single season strikeout record, set by Mark Reynolds in a season where Dunn finished second to him in NL strikeouts.

To put the strikeouts in perspective, Mickey Mantle once held the record for career strikeouts before it was eventually broken by Reggie Jackson. Dunn already has eight more strikeouts than Mantle ever recorded in a season (a year he hit .285 and had an on-base percentage of .390 -- his poor season being one of the reasons the Yankees didn't keep the White Sox from going to the World Series), and he is on pace to surpass Jackson's highest strikeout year (his first full season in the majors) in early August.

I have read that Ventura has said Dunn is striking out more and hitting less because he is more pull-conscious than he was early in the season, and he should come around. That implies that Dunn is working on striking out less and hitting for a higher average. Part of it, too, may be that the Sox are facing more left-handed starters. Dunn hits better against left-handed starters than left-handed relievers, often pitchers who are employed solely because they can get left-handed hitters out. Late in the game, opposing teams often bring in a lefty if De Aza is leading off and Dunn is in the hole. Some teams bring in lefties just to face Dunn. He is doing better against lefties than last year, but he is not doing well.

If Dunn this year wasn't being compared to Dunn last year, he would be seen as having a dismal year, or at least mired in a terrible slump. But there is room for improvement, and maybe he will return to a more productive form. He needs to be a better third-place hitter, but I don't know if moving other players around in the order would do the team much good.

voodoochile
07-09-2012, 03:13 PM
If Dunn this year wasn't being compared to Dunn last year, he would be seen as having a dismal year, or at least mired in a terrible slump. But there is room for improvement, and maybe he will return to a more productive form. He needs to be a better third-place hitter, but I don't know if moving other players around in the order would do the team much good.

Just to be picky, I don't think any person on pace to hit 50+ HR for the year at the All-Star break can ever be considered to be having a "dismal" season.

everafan
07-09-2012, 03:50 PM
Maybe Dunn should get more off days against LHP. Not all the time, but sometimes.

This! I know Rios is the natural choice for #3 but I wouldn't mess with the lineup given the production. But there is no reason that Dunn can't sit against lefties eery once in a while. On those days move Rios to #3.

Noneck
07-09-2012, 03:52 PM
Just to be picky, I don't think any person on pace to hit 50+ HR for the year at the All-Star break can ever be considered to be having a "dismal" season.

And dont forget 120 rbi's

soxfan123
07-09-2012, 03:56 PM
Player AVG/OBP/SLG

AJ: .285/338/.527
Pauly: .329/.404/.528
Gordon: .243/.291/.380
Alexei: .266/.287/.341
Tank: .255/.296/.442
De Aza: .283/.351/.401
Rios: .318/.352/.522
Dunn: .208/.357/.502
Youk (combined): .262/.341/.426

Dunn still has an OPS of .859 (4th best behind Pauly, Rios, and AJ). The problem is he is streaky. If he is hitting well, he can carry the offense. But when he's striking out and not driving the ball it's really only benefitting the lineup when he walks. Might be worth considering putting him down in the order and when he starts hitting well again put him back up. Ventura seems to like to keep a steady lineup though.

kobo
07-09-2012, 04:35 PM
This! I know Rios is the natural choice for #3 but I wouldn't mess with the lineup given the production. But there is no reason that Dunn can't sit against lefties eery once in a while. On those days move Rios to #3.
If Dunn sits against a lefty then who replaces Dunn? There isn't anyone on the bench who is better than Dunn.

Frater Perdurabo
07-09-2012, 04:42 PM
If Dunn sits against a lefty then who replaces Dunn? There isn't anyone on the bench who is better than Dunn.

Ideally we would have a righty-hitting catcher who hits LHP decently who could catch against LHP, allowing AJ to DH occasionally against LHP, and thus allowing Dunn to sit occasionally against LHP.

thehawkeroo
07-09-2012, 04:47 PM
Didn't some guy bring that up to rongie during the pre game show Sunday? The guy said they should switch rios and Dunn. Rongie shot him down. Very rudely, I must say.

TomBradley72
07-09-2012, 06:28 PM
If Dunn sits against a lefty then who replaces Dunn? There isn't anyone on the bench who is better than Dunn.

Escobar hits LHP better than RHP (.318 in 22 ABs- so a limited sample size in MLB)- so the best option if you rest Dunn is is Escobar at 3rd, Youk goes to 1st, PK to DH- or if Escobar can handle LF- Tank could move to DH.

I think Escobar is emerging as a spark plug- you could slot him at #2 and Youk could take #3 when Dunn sits-or put him at#8 or #9.

cards press box
07-09-2012, 06:52 PM
Just to be picky, I don't think any person on pace to hit 50+ HR for the year at the All-Star break can ever be considered to be having a "dismal" season.

You are not being picky; you're absolutely right. I was just playing with the numbers and wondered what Dunn's current stats would be if extrapolated over a full season. Check this out: Dunn is currently on pace to hit 48 homers, drive in 116 runs and take 130 walks. He currently has an on base percentage of .357.

What's more, Dunn balances the lineup as he provides a power threat from the left side. Without Dunn, the only lefty power threat would be from AJ.

Dunn's career average is .242. I just don't see the point in getting hung up on the fact that he doesn't hit for a very high average.

Earl Weaver -- who knew a thing or two about managing a ballclub -- never worried about what a player couldn't do. He focused on what a player could do. And, believe me, Weaver would have gladly found a spot for Dunn and his 40+ home runs.

slavko
07-09-2012, 07:29 PM
Didn't some guy bring that up to rongie during the pre game show Sunday? The guy said they should switch rios and Dunn. Rongie shot him down. Very rudely, I must say.

Heard it. Rongey ignored the guy's valid argument and clung to the point that Dunn's OBP was higher without saying that it was only .005 higher. No mention of superior baserunning ability either. Rongey is getting irritating.

FoulTerritory
07-09-2012, 08:34 PM
Heard it. Rongey ignored the guy's valid argument and clung to the point that Dunn's OBP was higher without saying that it was only .005 higher. No mention of superior baserunning ability either. Rongey is getting irritating.

Yeah, what is wrong with Rongey these days? He seems to be getting more and more irrational. I think he's become so jaded by bad callers that he now works on the assumption that virtually every caller that disagrees on any issue with Robin or Kenny must, by virtue of being a caller, be wrong.

voodoochile
07-09-2012, 08:41 PM
Yeah, what is wrong with Rongey these days? He seems to be getting more and more irrational. I think he's become so jaded by bad callers that he now works on the assumption that virtually every caller that disagrees on any issue with Robin or Kenny must, by virtue of being a caller, be wrong.

It's a common phenomenon for mods too. I sometimes have to read things three times to figure out if it's a joke or not when I don't know the poster. Talk radio is even worse because there's no filter and no control.

Frater Perdurabo
07-09-2012, 08:49 PM
Escobar hits LHP better than RHP (.318 in 22 ABs- so a limited sample size in MLB)- so the best option if you rest Dunn is is Escobar at 3rd, Youk goes to 1st, PK to DH... I think Escobar is emerging as a spark plug- you could slot him at #2 and Youk could take #3 when Dunn sits-or put him at#8 or #9.

That's an interesting idea.

JB98
07-09-2012, 08:50 PM
Yeah, what is wrong with Rongey these days? He seems to be getting more and more irrational. I think he's become so jaded by bad callers that he now works on the assumption that virtually every caller that disagrees on any issue with Robin or Kenny must, by virtue of being a caller, be wrong.

I think you're right about that. Rongey often shoots down reasonable dissent these days, quite possibly because of the high volume of idiot calls he receives.

Now, I happen to agree with Chris that Dunn should stay put in the 3 spot. But my opinion has nothing to do with anyone's OBP. I'm a big "if it isn't broke, don't fix it" guy. I see no reason to make adjustments while the club is winning consistently. If they start losing, then maybe you shake it up.

I was always enraged by all the tinkering Manuel and Guillen did during their tenures here. Ventura seems to have more patience and a more steady hand, and that happens to be my preference as far as a manager goes.

I always heard that Ozzie was "a players' manager," but I'm not so sure given how easily he flies off the handle. His emotions seem to run hot and cold, just like many of the fans who call Rongey's show. If were a player, I think I would prefer Robin's more even-keel style of managing.

TDog
07-09-2012, 08:58 PM
You are not being picky; you're absolutely right. I was just playing with the numbers and wondered what Dunn's current stats would be if extrapolated over a full season. Check this out: Dunn is currently on pace to hit 48 homers, drive in 116 runs and take 130 walks. He currently has an on base percentage of .357.

What's more, Dunn balances the lineup as he provides a power threat from the left side. Without Dunn, the only lefty power threat would be from AJ.

Dunn's career average is .242. I just don't see the point in getting hung up on the fact that he doesn't hit for a very high average.

Earl Weaver -- who knew a thing or two about managing a ballclub -- never worried about what a player couldn't do. He focused on what a player could do. And, believe me, Weaver would have gladly found a spot for Dunn and his 40+ home runs.

I didn't know that you were tight with Earl Weaver. Next time you talk with him, ask him if he would trade his favorite No. 3 hitter, Frank Robinson, who walked more than he struck out in 1969 but only managed 32 home runs while hitting .308, for a .210 hitter on pace for 50 home runs and 250 strikeouts.

I don't know him, but I believe I heard Weaver say in an interview once that he didn't like giving away outs, which is why he never sacrificed and he liked hitters who made contact and didn't strike out too much. But I might be mistaken. Still, Weaver's big home run hitter was Boog Powell who in 14 seasons with Baltimore only struck out more than 100 times once, and that was before Weaver was named manager.

Dunn's numbers are ridiculously silly, and not in a good way. No 50-home run hitter has ever struck out so much or had such a miserably poor batting average. Many have hit .300 (hitting being something that involves hitting.) Johnny Mize actually only had 40 strikeouts when he hit his 50th home run in 1947 and he hit .300. People generally aren't generally regulars in major league lineups when they treat seemingly every at bat like a round of home run derby. Part of the reason for that is that managers don't have the patience with players who have so little success at the plate punctuated by occasional home runs. I don't know Earl Weaver, so I can't ask him if he is one of them.

RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

LITTLE NELL
07-09-2012, 09:07 PM
I didn't know that you were tight with Earl Weaver. Next time you talk with him, ask him if he would trade his favorite No. 3 hitter, Frank Robinson, who walked more than he struck out in 1969 but only managed 32 home runs while hitting .308, for a .210 hitter on pace for 50 home runs and 250 strikeouts.

I don't know him, but I believe I heard Weaver say in an interview once that he didn't like giving away outs, which is why he never sacrificed and he liked hitters who made contact and didn't strike out too much. But I might be mistaken. Still, Weaver's big home run hitter was Boog Powell who in 14 seasons with Baltimore only struck out more than 100 times once, and that was before Weaver was named manager.

Dunn's numbers are ridiculously silly, and not in a good way. No 50-home run hitter has ever struck out so much or had such a miserably poor batting average. Many have hit .300 (hitting being something that involves hitting.) Johnny Mize actually only had 40 strikeouts when he hit his 50th home run in 1947 and he hit .300. People generally aren't generally regulars in major league lineups when they treat seemingly every at bat like a round of home run derby. Part of the reason for that is that managers don't have the patience with players who have so little success at the plate punctuated by occasional home runs. I don't know Earl Weaver, so I can't ask him if he is one of them.

RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

Excellent post.

sullythered
07-09-2012, 09:13 PM
I don't know that Dunn even gets on base enough to bat third. I think he bats third to give the Sox a chance to get on the board in the first inning with a home run.

Dunn's numbers are skewed by a relatively quick start. He was hitting around .230 through May when De Aza was getting on base a lot. Even his on-base percentage is more than 20 points lower since the end of May, while his batting average has dropped about 20 points. His batting average is well below .200 since the end of May, although it is still better than what he was doing in June and early July last year. He also was striking out at a lower rate early in the season. He is hitting more home runs, of course, but he is striking out at a greater rate than last year. He is on pace to shatter the single season strikeout record, set by Mark Reynolds in a season where Dunn finished second to him in NL strikeouts.

To put the strikeouts in perspective, Mickey Mantle once held the record for career strikeouts before it was eventually broken by Reggie Jackson. Dunn already has eight more strikeouts than Mantle ever recorded in a season (a year he hit .285 and had an on-base percentage of .390 -- his poor season being one of the reasons the Yankees didn't keep the White Sox from going to the World Series), and he is on pace to surpass Jackson's highest strikeout year (his first full season in the majors) in early August.

I have read that Ventura has said Dunn is striking out more and hitting less because he is more pull-conscious than he was early in the season, and he should come around. That implies that Dunn is working on striking out less and hitting for a higher average. Part of it, too, may be that the Sox are facing more left-handed starters. Dunn hits better against left-handed starters than left-handed relievers, often pitchers who are employed solely because they can get left-handed hitters out. Late in the game, opposing teams often bring in a lefty if De Aza is leading off and Dunn is in the hole. Some teams bring in lefties just to face Dunn. He is doing better against lefties than last year, but he is not doing well.

If Dunn this year wasn't being compared to Dunn last year, he would be seen as having a dismal year, or at least mired in a terrible slump. But there is room for improvement, and maybe he will return to a more productive form. He needs to be a better third-place hitter, but I don't know if moving other players around in the order would do the team much good.

Dunn is on pace to hit the second most home runs in the history of the Chicago White Sox.

JB98
07-09-2012, 09:45 PM
I didn't know that you were tight with Earl Weaver. Next time you talk with him, ask him if he would trade his favorite No. 3 hitter, Frank Robinson, who walked more than he struck out in 1969 but only managed 32 home runs while hitting .308, for a .210 hitter on pace for 50 home runs and 250 strikeouts.

I don't know him, but I believe I heard Weaver say in an interview once that he didn't like giving away outs, which is why he never sacrificed and he liked hitters who made contact and didn't strike out too much. But I might be mistaken. Still, Weaver's big home run hitter was Boog Powell who in 14 seasons with Baltimore only struck out more than 100 times once, and that was before Weaver was named manager.

Dunn's numbers are ridiculously silly, and not in a good way. No 50-home run hitter has ever struck out so much or had such a miserably poor batting average. Many have hit .300 (hitting being something that involves hitting.) Johnny Mize actually only had 40 strikeouts when he hit his 50th home run in 1947 and he hit .300. People generally aren't generally regulars in major league lineups when they treat seemingly every at bat like a round of home run derby. Part of the reason for that is that managers don't have the patience with players who have so little success at the plate punctuated by occasional home runs. I don't know Earl Weaver, so I can't ask him if he is one of them.

RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

If that's the case are you ready to throw Konerko overboard? He has only nine RBIs since June 1 and has been mired in a lengthy slump. His woes aren't necessarily noticeable in the overall statistics yet, because his April and May were among the most dominant two months of his career.

I'm actually far more worried about Konerko than Dunn. Far more worried. Paulie is hitting the ball with little authority. His wrist can't be healthy.

FoulTerritory
07-09-2012, 10:04 PM
I didn't know that you were tight with Earl Weaver. Next time you talk with him, ask him if he would trade his favorite No. 3 hitter, Frank Robinson, who walked more than he struck out in 1969 but only managed 32 home runs while hitting .308, for a .210 hitter on pace for 50 home runs and 250 strikeouts.

I don't know him, but I believe I heard Weaver say in an interview once that he didn't like giving away outs, which is why he never sacrificed and he liked hitters who made contact and didn't strike out too much. But I might be mistaken. Still, Weaver's big home run hitter was Boog Powell who in 14 seasons with Baltimore only struck out more than 100 times once, and that was before Weaver was named manager.

Dunn's numbers are ridiculously silly, and not in a good way. No 50-home run hitter has ever struck out so much or had such a miserably poor batting average. Many have hit .300 (hitting being something that involves hitting.) Johnny Mize actually only had 40 strikeouts when he hit his 50th home run in 1947 and he hit .300. People generally aren't generally regulars in major league lineups when they treat seemingly every at bat like a round of home run derby. Part of the reason for that is that managers don't have the patience with players who have so little success at the plate punctuated by occasional home runs. I don't know Earl Weaver, so I can't ask him if he is one of them.

RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

Indeed.

I think that the sabrmetric philosophy suggesting that strike-outs are generally an over-valued stat (an out is an out after all) is usually spot on.

BUT this devaluing of strikeouts is not universally applicable. Someone earlier in the thread noted that Dunn has already struck out more than Mantle did in the whole season when he set the then single-season strike out record. One might say, accurately, that Mantle striking out 120 times (which is a lot) is not a primary factor or indicator to his value as a player. However, I do not think you can say that Dunn striking out 250-270 times in a season is not a major diminishing factor to his value. At some point the amount of strikeouts becomes absurd and necessarily costs you a lot of runs where contact could have moved/scored a runner.

I mean Dunn is basically going to double what is usually considered a high amount of strikeouts -- he is going to double the amount of strikeouts that are usually metrically disregarded if OBP is high enough.

And another thing: even his OBP has been dropping precipitously. His HR pace has slowed in the past 3 weeks too.

Yes, I'm generally a metric guy, but that doesn't mean I can't be worried about Dunn's second-half prospects for a number of reasons.

TDog
07-09-2012, 10:54 PM
If that's the case are you ready to throw Konerko overboard? He has only nine RBIs since June 1 and has been mired in a lengthy slump. His woes aren't necessarily noticeable in the overall statistics yet, because his April and May were among the most dominant two months of his career.

I'm actually far more worried about Konerko than Dunn. Far more worried. Paulie is hitting the ball with little authority. His wrist can't be healthy.

I am concerned that Konerko hasn't been hitting, and I'm worried that his wrist might not be healthy. But Konerko has a much better approach at the plate than Dunn does.

balke
07-10-2012, 12:45 AM
RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

1) What is a HEALTHY Carlos Quentin? Is that the same thing as a unicorn?

2) Edwin Encarnacion has never had 80+ RBI in his life - you realize you just called this an MVP stat? You realize Dunn is on pace for his 7th 100+ RBI season?

3) This team has hitters all around Dunn. If they didn't I might be on your side in some regard, but, the fact is they don't need slap singles and a guy GIDPing in front of PK - homeruns are doing just fine. So are walks in front of PK and Rios.

doublem23
07-10-2012, 01:08 AM
RBIs are important. It's an MVP stat. Teams with the most RBIs win games more often than the teams that put the most runners on base. But I am guessing that a healthy Carlos Quentin hitting third in the White Sox lineup this year would have at least as many RBIs without as many home runs. I shudder to think what Edwin Encarnacion would be doing hitting third in the White Sox lineup with almost as many home runs as Dunn. Both Quentin and Encarnacion are right handed but actually hit both righties and lefties better than Dunn.

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

RUNS are the important stat. Nobody cares about RBI. Teams that score the most runs are the ones that win. And if your arguing there is no correlation between putting runners on base and driving in runs, it only serves as further evidence that you're just talking out your ass, as even someone with the most basic, elementary understanding of baseball could put two and two together.

I find this funny because in your generally dry, rambling posts you often conclude that ultimately the more baseball you watch, the less you realize you can explain it, and yet here you are, completely unable to admit your COMPLETE error of judgment on Dunn and all you can do is continue to shout into the wind. Keep trying though, it provides endless entertainment for the rest of us.

skobabe8
07-10-2012, 01:17 AM
RUNS are the important stat. Nobody cares about RBI. Teams that score the most runs are the ones that win. And if your arguing there is no correlation between putting runners on base and driving in runs, it only serves as further evidence that you're just talking out your ass, as even someone with the most basic, elementary understanding of baseball could put two and two together.

I find this funny because in your generally dry, rambling posts you often conclude that ultimately the more baseball you watch, the less you realize you can explain it, and yet here you are, completely unable to admit your COMPLETE error of judgment on Dunn and all you can do is continue to shout into the wind. Keep trying though, it provides endless entertainment for the rest of us.

:popcorn:

WhiteSox5187
07-10-2012, 02:46 AM
RUNS are the important stat. Nobody cares about RBI. Teams that score the most runs are the ones that win. And if your arguing there is no correlation between putting runners on base and driving in runs, it only serves as further evidence that you're just talking out your ass, as even someone with the most basic, elementary understanding of baseball could put two and two together.

I find this funny because in your generally dry, rambling posts you often conclude that ultimately the more baseball you watch, the less you realize you can explain it, and yet here you are, completely unable to admit your COMPLETE error of judgment on Dunn and all you can do is continue to shout into the wind. Keep trying though, it provides endless entertainment for the rest of us.

Perhaps you can explain this to me, I have often heard that RBIs are a useless stat and that it is runs scored that is the important one because it is not a player's fault that there is no one on base for him to drive in. But it seems to me that the same argument can be applied there as well. He is still going to need someone to drive him in unless he can steal home several dozen times. Why is that RBIs are no longer an important stat for hitters but runs scored are? And I should clarify that while you specifically are not making this argument I have read a lot of saber metric guys make that very argument.

voodoochile
07-10-2012, 03:26 AM
Here's a basic stat about Adam Dunn. At the moment he's driven in 61 and scored 48. He's hit 25 home runs for a basic contribution of 84 runs to the team this year. That's a damned fine number. Rios is at 87 and De Aza is at 86. PK is at 68.

Dunn is contributing to the team quite nicely.

doublem23
07-10-2012, 07:13 AM
Perhaps you can explain this to me, I have often heard that RBIs are a useless stat and that it is runs scored that is the important one because it is not a player's fault that there is no one on base for him to drive in. But it seems to me that the same argument can be applied there as well. He is still going to need someone to drive him in unless he can steal home several dozen times. Why is that RBIs are no longer an important stat for hitters but runs scored are? And I should clarify that while you specifically are not making this argument I have read a lot of saber metric guys make that very argument.

Runs scored and runs batted in as individual stats are equally worthless, but as a team stat, I can't think of anyone who would argue that RBI are more important than runs scored.

Zakath
07-10-2012, 07:53 AM
Runs scored and runs batted in as individual stats are equally worthless, but as a team stat, I can't think of anyone who would argue that RBI are more important than runs scored.

Given that the Sox only have 12 runs scored all season without the benefit of an RBI (just under 3% of the 409 we've scored), the two kind of go hand-in-hand.

Zakath
07-10-2012, 08:00 AM
Here's a basic stat about Adam Dunn. At the moment he's driven in 61 and scored 48. He's hit 25 home runs for a basic contribution of 84 runs to the team this year. That's a damned fine number. Rios is at 87 and De Aza is at 86. PK is at 68.

Dunn is contributing to the team quite nicely.

The most interesting one is Alexei, hitting mostly in the 7th and 8th spots, who has contributed 74 (32 runs scored, 44 RBI with only 2 HR), which is more than Paulie or AJ (39 scored, 49 RBI but with 16 HR for 72 runs contributed). Viciedo has 60, Beckham 67. Youkilis, in 13 games, has 21.

Thome25
07-10-2012, 08:55 AM
You do realize that the Sox are kicking ass right now, right?

edit: Also, Youkdawg and Tanky Tank? Seriously?

C'mon man lighten up. It's called a sense of humor. This person was obviously trying to have a little fun and you're gonna jump on them for that? Seriously?

kobo
07-10-2012, 09:29 AM
Dunn's numbers are ridiculously silly, and not in a good way. No 50-home run hitter has ever struck out so much or had such a miserably poor batting average. Many have hit .300 (hitting being something that involves hitting.) Johnny Mize actually only had 40 strikeouts when he hit his 50th home run in 1947 and he hit .300. People generally aren't generally regulars in major league lineups when they treat seemingly every at bat like a round of home run derby. Part of the reason for that is that managers don't have the patience with players who have so little success at the plate punctuated by occasional home runs. I don't know Earl Weaver, so I can't ask him if he is one of them.


Who cares about history? I care about what Dunn is doing for the team this year, not what other guys back in the day did. You continue to pine away for something Dunn has never been, a .300 hitter. He wasn't one when the Sox signed him, he's never going to be, and everyone knew this. What is important is that he hits homeruns, drives in runners, and gets on base. So he strikes out a ton; again this is not something new. I'd like to know how many times he's struck out with RISP, as that could lead to a legitimate argument.

The history lesson was nice in this thread but I fail to understand how it relates to anything Dunn is doing for the White Sox this year. If he was hitting .250 would you feel better? Probably not. As doublem mentioned, the bigger concern is Konerko. I don't care if his approach at the plate is better than Dunn's, the fact is he has been slumping since the wrist surgery and seems to have lost power. Losing Konerko at this point would be a bigger loss than losing Dunn or dropping Dunn in the order (which I still think is a horrible idea).

doublem23
07-10-2012, 09:38 AM
The most interesting one is Alexei, hitting mostly in the 7th and 8th spots, who has contributed 74 (32 runs scored, 44 RBI with only 2 HR), which is more than Paulie or AJ (39 scored, 49 RBI but with 16 HR for 72 runs contributed). Viciedo has 60, Beckham 67. Youkilis, in 13 games, has 21.

Even when Alexei was hitting in the low .200s, he was still hitting .350-ish with RISP.

34rancher
07-10-2012, 09:44 AM
Who cares about history? I care about what Dunn is doing for the team this year, not what other guys back in the day did. You continue to pine away for something Dunn has never been, a .300 hitter. He wasn't one when the Sox signed him, he's never going to be, and everyone knew this. What is important is that he hits homeruns, drives in runners, and gets on base. So he strikes out a ton; again this is not something new. I'd like to know how many times he's struck out with RISP, as that could lead to a legitimate argument.

See here is where I somewhat disagree. To me what is important is WHEN he hits home runs, drives in runners, and gets on base. The Sammy Sosa home run when up by 6 or solo shot in a losing effort is meaningless. Getting an rbi when down 1 or being the ultimate difference run in the game is to me far more important. When we have a man on second and less than 2 outs, I don't want a walk, I want a base hit. I want that run to score, not set up a possible GBDP or Fielder's Choice at 3rd.
Adam Dunn has 61 hits, 68 walks, 1 HBP. meaning he has been on base 130 times. He has scored 48 times (25 from his home runs). That is not bad. I would love to see an analysis on home many of these were meaningful though. I know early in the season he was carrying the team in a few games. Lately, though, he has been as much of a difference maker as Fukudome, even though he's not here. The strikeouts are certainly alarming. To me, the walks are almost as bad, not because he is getting on base, but because I feel like he is not even looking to hit and hoping to be bailed out by the pitcher. If his perfect pitch comes on pitch 1 or pitch 10, I want him as out #3 hitter to swing, not hope for a walk.
That all being said, I hope the All star visit does more than the selection has done for him. Since he was selected, he's been nonexistent.

TomBradley72
07-10-2012, 11:04 AM
I am becoming increasingly concerned with Dunn-
Steady decline month by month- .231 April, .230 May, ,181 June, .143 July
Hitting ~50 points below average he had in his last two years at Washington (age? AL pitching?)
Hitting .157 vs. LHP, 1/3 of his appearances- in the 3 hole- that's pretty bad.
Dunn is 12th on the White Sox in batting average w/RISP- .237 (last among the starters)- only Escobar, Fukodome, Lillibridge, Flowers, Morel have been worse. But he is #3 in RBIs for that split.
Robin has proven to be pretty decisive when he sees a problem and takes action to fix it- if we get a few weeks into the 2nd half and Dunn isn't turning it around- I'd like to see him moved down to the 5th/6th slot and sitting against LHPs more than he has so far this year.

ChiTownTrojan
07-10-2012, 12:09 PM
I am fine with Dunn hitting 3rd vs. RHP. He's been very productive this year in that spot. But his splits vs. LHP are awful for the second year in a row. His OPS is almost 300 points lower against lefties than righties (.958 vs. .669). Yes, Escobar has a better OPS vs. LHP (.771), albeit in a much smaller sample size.

Against LHP, I'd like to see Youk at #3, Escobar/Beckham at #2, and Dunn further down in the order (or occasionally on the bench). I think this would maximize the potential of the lineup.

kittle42
07-10-2012, 02:00 PM
[snip, snip]

The White Sox, though, are stuck with Dunn.

Wait, wait, wait - I thought runs and wins were the only important stats per some of your older posts. Do other stats become important only when you want to rip Adam Dunn for not being the type of player he never has been?

TaylorStSox
07-10-2012, 02:03 PM
TDog's hatred of Dunn > my hatred of AJ. That's quite the accomplishment.

TomBradley72
07-10-2012, 02:23 PM
Wait, wait, wait - I thought runs and wins were the only important stats per some of your older posts. Do other stats become important only when you want to rip Adam Dunn for not being the type of player he never has been?

But he IS hitting about 50 points below his last 2 seasons with Washington and about 30-40 points below his pre-White Sox career average.

In April/May he was the "player he always has been"- but for the rest of his tenure with the White Sox- he hasn't been.

TDog
07-10-2012, 03:22 PM
Perhaps you can explain this to me, I have often heard that RBIs are a useless stat and that it is runs scored that is the important one because it is not a player's fault that there is no one on base for him to drive in. But it seems to me that the same argument can be applied there as well. He is still going to need someone to drive him in unless he can steal home several dozen times. Why is that RBIs are no longer an important stat for hitters but runs scored are? And I should clarify that while you specifically are not making this argument I have read a lot of saber metric guys make that very argument.

The premise that RBIs are unimportant comes from the perspective of using RBI to predict future productivity. But what stats tell you is what players have done. Generally, at the end of the season, the player who drives in the most runs is the team's offensive MVP. But if you are looking to acquire a player from another team, RBIs might not transfer into your lineup, the RBIs might not transfer. Not only have the runs already been driven in, but they have been driven in in the context of another lineup. Runs scored can be viewed similarly. You can get on base with no one behind you to drive you in.

There should be no question that if you are judging a player's contribution to a team's offense that RBIs is one of the stats you look at. Of course, it is going to depend on players getting on base in front of you, if you subtract the home runs. Some RBIs are easier than others and all are not created equal, and it isn't always about hits with runners in scoring position. When Ramirez grounded out to drive in a runner from third Thursday, it tied the game against the Rangers. When Dunn grounded out to drive in a runner from third Sunday against Toronto, the Blue jays conceded a run that made the score 8-4. But a productive out from Viciedo after Ramirez's two-run triple in the same inning would have tied the game.

The idea is that all the raw stats accumulated in 19-2 and 2-1 games alike are just as meaningful. The problem I have is that stats taken in isolation don't reflect that they are taken from situations where circumstances differed. RBIs are influence by where you bat in the lineup and who you play for, but for many players, so is just about everything else. Ultimately, it's a matter of not how many a hitter hits but when he hits them. I don't believe stats make the MVPs, but winning games does. That applies to OPS (see Albert Belle, 1998) as well as RBIs.

Nonetheless, Dunn this year has a batting average of .237 with runners in scoring position. He has driven in no more than 28 of the 107 runners that have been in scoring position during his at bats. Konerko has come up with 85 runners in scoring position, driving in no more than 25 of them with an RISP BA of .355. Ramirez, despite doing so poorly offensively overall so deep into the season, has come up with 100 runners in scoring position, has an RISP BA of .397 and has driven in no more than 35 of them.

Tell Ramirez his RBIs are a meaningless stat, but for his career he has hit .277 overall and .306 with runners in scoring position.

kittle42
07-10-2012, 03:39 PM
The idea is that all the raw stats accumulated in 19-2 and 2-1 games alike are just as meaningful. The problem I have is that stats taken in isolation don't reflect that they are taken from situations where circumstances differed.

I think shoota believed a version of this.

SouthSideSid
07-10-2012, 03:46 PM
I've worried about other moves that Robin has made this year, but then I realize where the team is at. In Robin I trust - MOY.

TDog
07-10-2012, 04:14 PM
I think shoota believed a version of this.

Yes, if you want to take what I've written out of context.

JB98
07-10-2012, 06:59 PM
I am concerned that Konerko hasn't been hitting, and I'm worried that his wrist might not be healthy. But Konerko has a much better approach at the plate than Dunn does.

I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

The Sox have played very well lately considering they've gotten little from 3 and 4 in their lineup over the last four or five weeks.

UofCSoxFan
07-10-2012, 11:12 PM
I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

The Sox have played very well lately considering they've gotten little from 3 and 4 in their lineup over the last four or five weeks.

I agree....to me Dunn's strikeouts are overblown because most fans still apply what we were taught growing up....to shorten up our swings and put the ball in play and see what happens. And at the Little League through high school level this holds since home runs are few and far between and errors are common. But at the major league level, where people don't make errors more than 7% or 8% of the time, a much rather have my power hitters swing for the fences every time. Dunn isn't going to beat out hits, and the marginal increase in run expectancy is much less than the chance of Dunn hitting a two strike home run...especially when you also account for the likelihood of a double play.

TDog
07-11-2012, 12:18 AM
I guess I fail to see how Dunn's strikeouts are more harmful to the team than Konerko's weak grounders and popouts. We need more impactful base hits from both players, because Rios, Youkilis and Ramirez can't stay hot forever.

Some of Konerko's pop-ups do drop in for hits. Some of his ground balls go through the infield, and some of his weak groundouts advance runners to second base. Konerko has only struck out 11 times since the end of May. Dunn is giving away a ridiculous number of at bats through his approach. He has struck out nine times in six games in July and 52 times since he finished May a .230 hitter with power, approaching his career norms. When the count is full on Konerko, you can start a runner on first with less than two outs because he doesn't strike out as often, minimizing the chance of him hitting into a double play and advancing the runner if he hits it on the ground. Indeed, Konerko has grounded into only one double play this season with a full count, and I believe the runner was going, but he hit the ball so hard, the defense was still able to turn it.

Konerko has developed a great approach at the plate. He hasn't been the same since he sat out because of his hand, and seems to have been playing through some pain since. Konerko isn't giving away at bats, which Dunn does on a regular basis. Fans complain about players sacrificing, but players who go up to the plate not adjusting for the count, not shortening their swings with two strikes, not taking outside pitches the other way when that is all pitchers are giving them and end up striking out as a result are giving away outs. Dunn need only step out of the batter's box, look at where the defense is playing him and see that there are a lot of hits out there if he puts the ball in play.

The reason I believe Dunn has become an offensive black hole while Konerko is only struggling is that while Konerko appears to be playing through some pain, he also appears to be approaching every at bat looking to do what is needed to help the team offensively. Dunn appears to be 100 percent and doesn't see to care about anything other than his home run total when he steps up to the plate.

Tragg
07-11-2012, 09:01 AM
The premise that RBIs are unimportant comes from the perspective of using RBI to predict future productivity.

No, it comes from the reality that an RBI is based to a large extent on what others have done or what they will do in running the bases. If they aren't on base, you aren't getting a RBI, unless you hit a homer. OPS with runners in scoring position is a better stat, although I think for most hitters, OPS with runners in scoring position will approximate their OPS in all circumstances, over the long-haul.

asindc
07-11-2012, 09:48 AM
I agree....to me Dunn's strikeouts are overblown because most fans still apply what we were taught growing up....to shorten up our swings and put the ball in play and see what happens. And at the Little League through high school level this holds since home runs are few and far between and errors are common. But at the major league level, where people don't make errors more than 7% or 8% of the time, a much rather have my power hitters swing for the fences every time. Dunn isn't going to beat out hits, and the marginal increase in run expectancy is much less than the chance of Dunn hitting a two strike home run...especially when you also account for the likelihood of a double play.

Actually, error frequency in MLB is much less than that, but that is besides the point. Putting the ball in play is not preferable just because it forces the defense to make a play (although that is a good reason why), but because it is by far a more efficient result than a K. Popups fall in for hits, ground balls get through the infield defense, ground balls can score runners from third and move other runners up, and ground balls allow the hitter to try to beat a throw for a hit. And none of those plays include fly balls deep enough to advance runners. The only positive results from a K are the avoidance of a double play (which is no reason to avoid putting the ball in play in the first place) and a dropped third strike allowing the hitter to take 1st base. Neither of those plays occur with enough frequency to offset the inefficiency of failing to put the ball in play, and it is not even close, and at any rate should not be factored into a decision to swing for the fences with two strikes rather than cut down the swing to increase the chance of putting the ball in play.

Over his career, Dunn has hit a HR in 5.5% of his plate appearances. I'm guessing that the % of time HRs are hit with two strikes on him is far less than that. Meanwhile, he has struck out 28% of the time he has gone up to hit. Contrast that with Konerko, who has struck out 14.5% of his career PAs, almost half the rate of Dunn, while hitting a HR in a bit more than 4.5% of his plate appearances. I'm almost certain that Konerko could have hit more HRs in his career than Dunn if he had taken Dunn's approach to the hitting, but I don't know of anyone who wants to see him do that. Conversely, I would be ecstatic if Dunn adopted Pauly's approach to hitting. Not likely at this stage in his career, though.

asindc
07-11-2012, 09:50 AM
No, it comes from the reality that an RBI is based to a large extent on what others have done or what they will do in running the bases. If they aren't on base, you aren't getting a RBI, unless you hit a homer. OPS with runners in scoring position is a better stat, although I think for most hitters, OPS with runners in scoring position will approximate their OPS in all circumstances, over the long-haul.

When a player produces far more often with runners on base than not over the course of a 4.5 year MLB career as Alexei has, then I think we can rule out random luck as the most likely explanation.

soxinem1
07-11-2012, 10:39 AM
'Your 2012 Chicago White Sox: Our #3 Hitter Is Hitting .209, And We'll Take It!!'

JB98
07-11-2012, 01:58 PM
Some of Konerko's pop-ups do drop in for hits. Some of his ground balls go through the infield, and some of his weak groundouts advance runners to second base. Konerko has only struck out 11 times since the end of May. Dunn is giving away a ridiculous number of at bats through his approach. He has struck out nine times in six games in July and 52 times since he finished May a .230 hitter with power, approaching his career norms. When the count is full on Konerko, you can start a runner on first with less than two outs because he doesn't strike out as often, minimizing the chance of him hitting into a double play and advancing the runner if he hits it on the ground. Indeed, Konerko has grounded into only one double play this season with a full count, and I believe the runner was going, but he hit the ball so hard, the defense was still able to turn it.

Konerko has developed a great approach at the plate. He hasn't been the same since he sat out because of his hand, and seems to have been playing through some pain since. Konerko isn't giving away at bats, which Dunn does on a regular basis. Fans complain about players sacrificing, but players who go up to the plate not adjusting for the count, not shortening their swings with two strikes, not taking outside pitches the other way when that is all pitchers are giving them and end up striking out as a result are giving away outs. Dunn need only step out of the batter's box, look at where the defense is playing him and see that there are a lot of hits out there if he puts the ball in play.

The reason I believe Dunn has become an offensive black hole while Konerko is only struggling is that while Konerko appears to be playing through some pain, he also appears to be approaching every at bat looking to do what is needed to help the team offensively. Dunn appears to be 100 percent and doesn't see to care about anything other than his home run total when he steps up to the plate.

This argument has become pointless to me. You want Dunn to become something he is not. That's not going to happen, and you will dislike him for it. That's fine.

WhiteSox5187
07-11-2012, 02:10 PM
I think that the biggest thing the White Sox need for Adam Dunn to be productive again is for Paul Konerko's wrist to get better. When Konerko was red hot I think pitchers were more inclined to pitch to Dunn which made him a much more effective hitter. Dunn really needs some sort of protection in the lineup.

TDog
07-11-2012, 02:53 PM
No, it comes from the reality that an RBI is based to a large extent on what others have done or what they will do in running the bases. If they aren't on base, you aren't getting a RBI, unless you hit a homer. OPS with runners in scoring position is a better stat, although I think for most hitters, OPS with runners in scoring position will approximate their OPS in all circumstances, over the long-haul.


On-base percentage with runners in scoring position is a fairly meaningless stat, and that is a major component of OPS with runners in scoring position. Nick Swisher made that abundantly clear with the White Sox in 2008, but I'll use the most extreme example I can think of. In 2001 Barry Bonds had an RISP OPS of 1.594. He came up with 177 runners in scoring position in and drove in only 34 of them with 34 hits in 163 plate appearances. He had a batting average of .382 with runners in scoring position, but he walked 71 times. It wasn't as if he walked to get on base. He walked because pitchers pitched around him, because it was to the advantage of the opposing team for him to walk. That season, 34 of his walks with runners in scoring position were officially intentional. The number of times pitchers simply didn't give him anything to hit and hoped he would get himself out is not recorded.

You can't say Barry Bonds was a sure thing to drive in a run with a runner on second because he had an OPS of almost 1.600. A major reason his OPS was so high was that generally he didn't get a chance to drive in that runner from second base.

Of course, if no one is on base when you come up, you will have fewer chances to drive in runs, although in that Barry Bonds season, he picked up 46 RBIs when no one was on base. RBIs have more to do with wins and losses than OPS, overall and especially with runners in scoring position. And when you come up with runners in scoring position and don't put the ball in play, your chances of driving in runs is minimal. You may walk, but that is based on a large extent on what the pitcher does.

Look at what Alexei Ramirez does with runners in scoring position. Look what Adam Dunn does with runners in scoring position.It's a team sport. If you are looking at OPS, which really is a contrived stat, taking slugging percentage which has batting average as its foundation and on-base percentage, which is meaningless evaluating a hitter's hitting unless it has a strong batting average as its foundation, you are missing the need for players to step up, swing the bat and drive in runs on a consistent basis. Walking, hitting singles, doubles and triples, doesn't help your team win unless they or the teammates behind you drive in runs.

kittle42
07-11-2012, 02:57 PM
On-base percentage with runners in scoring position is a fairly meaningless stat, and that is a major component of OPS with runners in scoring position. Nick Swisher made that abundantly clear with the White Sox in 2008, but I'll use the most extreme example I can think of. In 2001 Barry Bonds had an RISP OPS of 1.594. He came up with 177 runners in scoring position in and drove in only 34 of them with 34 hits in 163 plate appearances. He had a batting average of .382 with runners in scoring position, but he walked 71 times. It wasn't as if he walked to get on base. He walked because pitchers pitched around him, because it was to the advantage of the opposing team for him to walk. That season, 34 of his walks with runners in scoring position were officially intentional. The number of times pitchers simply didn't give him anything to hit and hoped he would get himself out is not recorded.

You can't say Barry Bonds was a sure thing to drive in a run with a runner on second because he had an OPS of almost 1.600. A major reason his OPS was so high was that generally he didn't get a chance to drive in that runner from second base.

Of course, if no one is on base when you come up, you will have fewer chances to drive in runs, although in that Barry Bonds season, he picked up 46 RBIs when no one was on base. RBIs have more to do with wins and losses than OPS, overall and especially with runners in scoring position. And when you come up with runners in scoring position and don't put the ball in play, your chances of driving in runs is minimal. You may walk, but that is based on a large extent on what the pitcher does.

Look at what Alexei Ramirez does with runners in scoring position. Look what Adam Dunn does with runners in scoring position.It's a team sport. If you are looking at OPS, which really is a contrived stat, taking slugging percentage which has batting average as its foundation and on-base percentage, which is meaningless evaluating a hitter's hitting unless it has a strong batting average as its foundation, you are missing the need for players to step up, swing the bat and drive in runs on a consistent basis. Walking, hitting singles, doubles and triples, doesn't help your team win unless they or the teammates behind you drive in runs.

You should really just never look at a stat again. The final scores will still be there, as will wins and losses. Problem solved!

russ99
07-11-2012, 03:03 PM
For the first two months we were OK with Dunn's free swinging and low average since he was slamming homers out at a prolific rate.

Odd that he's lately not been hitting them out with regularity (8 in June and only 1 in almost half of July) and all of a sudden he's being vilified for the same things he did when he was hitting more homers.

Dunn is Dunn and we all know what we're going to get from him.

As long his OBP doesn't falter too much, I prefer him in the 3 spot. Drop him lower and his confidence could suffer, and his numbers could tailspin, like last year.

Hopefully the All Star break will give him a good breather and he does better in the second half.

TDog
07-11-2012, 03:23 PM
This argument has become pointless to me. You want Dunn to become something he is not. That's not going to happen, and you will dislike him for it. That's fine.

Essentially my argument is that I am not concerned about Konerko because he doesn't give away outs, even while playing in pain. He has adjusted during his career to minimize his strikeouts, make contact and take what the pitcher gives him. Dunn's approach to hitting gives away many outs.

If Dunn can't do what is needed of an offensive player to win, I have to wonder what he is doing on the White Sox, unless the White Sox have become what the Cubs were in the Sammy Sosa years where fans only care about the home runs and losses are consoled with "at least Dunn hit one." I have never valued what Dunn brings to a team offensively. Having him in a lineup is not unlike sitting at a roulette wheel all night, playing only one number and hoping it comes up. I have seen people do that in Las Vegas. I have seen people win. I have seen many, many more lose.

Dunn has hurt the White Sox more than he has helped since the end of May. I can't believe that if he continues to hit below .200 while striking out at a pace no player has been allowed to keep up while remaining an everyday player.

If he doesn't make adjustments, though, it will be interesting to see how many strikeouts Dunn will be allowed to accumulate.

Frater Perdurabo
07-11-2012, 03:24 PM
For reasons and examples TDog mentioned, I don't care about OPS with RISP. However, I very much am interested in AVG with RISP and SLG with runners on base.

kittle42
07-11-2012, 04:37 PM
Essentially my argument is that I am not concerned about Konerko because he doesn't give away outs, even while playing in pain. He has adjusted during his career to minimize his strikeouts, make contact and take what the pitcher gives him. Dunn's approach to hitting gives away many outs.

If Dunn can't do what is needed of an offensive player to win, I have to wonder what he is doing on the White Sox, unless the White Sox have become what the Cubs were in the Sammy Sosa years where fans only care about the home runs and losses are consoled with "at least Dunn hit one." I have never valued what Dunn brings to a team offensively. Having him in a lineup is not unlike sitting at a roulette wheel all night, playing only one number and hoping it comes up. I have seen people do that in Las Vegas. I have seen people win. I have seen many, many more lose.

Dunn has hurt the White Sox more than he has helped since the end of May. I can't believe that if he continues to hit below .200 while striking out at a pace no player has been allowed to keep up while remaining an everyday player.

If he doesn't make adjustments, though, it will be interesting to see how many strikeouts Dunn will be allowed to accumulate.

This is the same Adam Dunn who was a non-fan pick for the game that was on yesterday? Or is this some other Adam Dunn?

Not that being selected for the ASG should be solely determinative of a player's worth - but it probably is a good indication there is no question about that player's positive value as an everyday player.

This is getting ludicrous. This isn't 2011. This isn't the same player who arguably had the worst season in MLB history, yet was trotted out there every day.

kobo
07-11-2012, 05:40 PM
Essentially my argument is that I am not concerned about Konerko because he doesn't give away outs, even while playing in pain. He has adjusted during his career to minimize his strikeouts, make contact and take what the pitcher gives him. Dunn's approach to hitting gives away many outs.

If Dunn can't do what is needed of an offensive player to win, I have to wonder what he is doing on the White Sox, unless the White Sox have become what the Cubs were in the Sammy Sosa years where fans only care about the home runs and losses are consoled with "at least Dunn hit one." I have never valued what Dunn brings to a team offensively. Having him in a lineup is not unlike sitting at a roulette wheel all night, playing only one number and hoping it comes up. I have seen people do that in Las Vegas. I have seen people win. I have seen many, many more lose.

Dunn has hurt the White Sox more than he has helped since the end of May. I can't believe that if he continues to hit below .200 while striking out at a pace no player has been allowed to keep up while remaining an everyday player.

If he doesn't make adjustments, though, it will be interesting to see how many strikeouts Dunn will be allowed to accumulate.
Your argument is you like Konerko because he doesn't strike out and has a good approach at the plate. Even though over the last month Konerko has been just as bad as Dunn, you are ok with that because he doesn't strike out.

Here's their stats over the last 30 days:
Konerko has 22 hits in 89 AB with 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, 7 RBI , 7 BB, 9 K, for a line of .247/.302/.337.639. He's also hit into 5 DP.

Dunn has 13 hits in 81 AB with 1 double, 5 homeruns, 15 RBI, 20 BB, 38 K, for a line of .160/.327/.358/.685. He's hit into 1 DP.

They both suck ass right now. The fact the Sox are in first while getting this type of production out of their 3-4 hitters is amazing. Continue to rip on Dunn all you want and pine away for something he will never be, but the bottom line is we need both players to get back to their career norms if we want to see the Sox play baseball in October.

FoulTerritory
07-11-2012, 08:12 PM
This is getting ludicrous. This isn't 2011. This isn't the same player who arguably had the worst season in MLB history, yet was trotted out there every day.

Over the past month he actually looks a lot like the player we "trotted out there" every day in 2011.

Again, the OBP and HR-rate are going down precipitously over the past month.

kittle42
07-11-2012, 10:12 PM
Over the past month he actually looks a lot like the player we "trotted out there" every day in 2011.

Again, the OBP and HR-rate are going down precipitously over the past month.

As pointed out above, Konerko looks like crap, too. Slumps happen.

FoulTerritory
07-11-2012, 11:26 PM
As pointed out above, Konerko looks like crap, too. Slumps happen.

Context is important. Konerko didn't hit .160 last year and he has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to get himself out of slumps with a good approach.

When Dunn hits .169 for a month, more red-flags should go off than with other players given the context -- that he's proven capable, just last year, of hitting the worst in history for several months in a row.

kittle42
07-12-2012, 10:53 AM
Context is important. Konerko didn't hit .160 last year and he has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to get himself out of slumps with a good approach.

When Dunn hits .169 for a month, more red-flags should go off than with other players given the context -- that he's proven capable, just last year, of hitting the worst in history for several months in a row.

Taking one player's month in the context of just one season vs. another player's month in the context of his entire career isn't exactly fair.

FoulTerritory
07-12-2012, 11:19 AM
Taking one player's month in the context of just one season vs. another player's month in the context of his entire career isn't exactly fair.

You act like an entire season is an insignificant sample, but I don't think it is . . . especially when the depths of depravity were so extreme last year for Dunn.

Konerko had issues with prolonged slumps earlier in his career, but the past 5 seasons demonstrate that he has learned how to get out of them with approach.

Watching Dunn try to pull everything and watching him take a lot of good pitches to hit and swing at bad pitches . . . just looks too much like the Dunn of last year as opposed to the April and May Dunn that was looking oppo and up the middle and even hit some doubles down the left field line.

I'm not saying he can't get things turned back around, but given his current approach, I don't think the odds are that high that he will.

Either way, I'd try to hide him a little lower in the lineup while he tries to work back to being a 250 hitter as opposed to the 169 he's hit over the past month.

TheVulture
07-12-2012, 11:52 AM
I didn't know that you were tight with Earl Weaver. Next time you talk with him, ask him if he would trade his favorite No. 3 hitter, Frank Robinson, who walked more than he struck out in 1969 but only managed 32 home runs while hitting .308, for a .210 hitter on pace for 50 home runs and 250 strikeouts.


Dunn isn't as good as one of the greatest players to ever play the game? Gee, thanks for the news flash.

kobo
07-12-2012, 02:42 PM
You act like an entire season is an insignificant sample, but I don't think it is . . . especially when the depths of depravity were so extreme last year for Dunn.

Konerko had issues with prolonged slumps earlier in his career, but the past 5 seasons demonstrate that he has learned how to get out of them with approach.

Watching Dunn try to pull everything and watching him take a lot of good pitches to hit and swing at bad pitches . . . just looks too much like the Dunn of last year as opposed to the April and May Dunn that was looking oppo and up the middle and even hit some doubles down the left field line.

I'm not saying he can't get things turned back around, but given his current approach, I don't think the odds are that high that he will.

Either way, I'd try to hide him a little lower in the lineup while he tries to work back to being a 250 hitter as opposed to the 169 he's hit over the past month.
And what about Konerko? He's hitting 100 points lower over the last month as well. Do you want Konerko dropped as well or does he get a pass based on his career? Because it seems like people like to look at Konerko's entire career but when it comes to Dunn everyone is looking at last year and not his entire career.

kittle42
07-12-2012, 04:46 PM
Dunn isn't as good as one of the greatest players to ever play the game? Gee, thanks for the news flash.

Seriously, I'm gonna pull out Babe Ruth the next time someone praises Dunn. He's no Babe Ruth!

FoulTerritory
07-12-2012, 06:19 PM
And what about Konerko? He's hitting 100 points lower over the last month as well. Do you want Konerko dropped as well or does he get a pass based on his career? Because it seems like people like to look at Konerko's entire career but when it comes to Dunn everyone is looking at last year and not his entire career.

No, I don't want Konerko dropped. I want Dunn dropped because

a) he is hitting 208 with a quickly sinking OBP
b) his outs are unproductive thus making his slumps even more damaging
c) he has demonstrated, in recent history, the inability to get out of slumps in a reasonable time-frame.

Konerko leads the team in OBP, has many productive outs, and at this point in his career has demonstrated the ability to get out of a slump with a good approach, before the slump becomes catastrophic.

thehawkeroo
07-15-2012, 10:22 AM
No, I don't want Konerko dropped. I want Dunn dropped because

a) he is hitting 208 with a quickly sinking OBP
b) his outs are unproductive thus making his slumps even more damaging
c) he has demonstrated, in recent history, the inability to get out of slumps in a reasonable time-frame.

Konerko leads the team in OBP, has many productive outs, and at this point in his career has demonstrated the ability to get out of a slump with a good approach, before the slump becomes catastrophic.

Would you rather have this year's Dunn or last year's Dunn? 27 HRs and 64 RBIs or 11 HRs and 42 RBIs.

FoulTerritory
07-15-2012, 12:06 PM
Would you rather have this year's Dunn or last year's Dunn? 27 HRs and 64 RBIs or 11 HRs and 42 RBIs.

Is this a trick question?

voodoochile
07-15-2012, 12:10 PM
Would you rather have this year's Dunn or last year's Dunn? 27 HRs and 64 RBIs or 11 HRs and 42 RBIs.

Well duh, but what does that have to do with the question at hand?

I don't want him moved and he seems to be busting out of his slump starting the second half so leave well enough alone.

balke
07-15-2012, 06:39 PM
Dunn: 3 homeruns in 3 days with 4 RBI. The 2 games he scored, the Sox won by 1 run. Youk, De Aza, and Dunn showed in that first game against KC why they are where they are. They wear down pitchers early by taking pitches and getting on base. That makes Rios even more deadly with runners on at the 5 spot.

I love the lineup. Let's worry about pitching with these injuries okay?


(If anything I'd suggest swapping Konerko and Rios. Konerko might be out of sync or hurt after his surgery. Rios is looking legit as one of the best hitters in the league right now.)

Boondock Saint
07-15-2012, 07:17 PM
Dunn: 3 homeruns in 3 days with 4 RBI. The 2 games he scored, the Sox won by 1 run. Youk, De Aza, and Dunn showed in that first game against KC why they are where they are. They wear down pitchers early by taking pitches and getting on base. That makes Rios even more deadly with runners on at the 5 spot.

I love the lineup. Let's worry about pitching with these injuries okay?


(If anything I'd suggest swapping Konerko and Rios. Konerko might be out of sync or hurt after his surgery. Rios is looking legit as one of the best hitters in the league right now.)

Something that Walker taught Sox hitters not to do. He wanted Sox hitters aggressive, swinging early and often.

thehawkeroo
07-16-2012, 12:14 PM
Is this a trick question?

Sarcasm! Why complain about the year he's having when he's on pace for 50 HRs and 120 RBIs! Who cares if he strikes out 200 times when he will win them more games than a .290 hitter.

kevingrt
07-16-2012, 12:37 PM
I know it's just a stat and is still in it's infancy but according to FanGraphs look at these WAR's

Paul Konerko: 1.9
Adam Dunn: 2.0