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ClawsDeep
06-01-2012, 10:06 AM
I was looking through some stats for fantasy baseball, and Adam Dunn's stats are simply mind blowing.

He is batting .230 with an OPS of .935!
He has 16HRs 37 RBI and 82 strikeouts. At the 51 game point he has 178 at bats.

If you were to extrapolate all his numbers for 600 ABs, he would finish the season with 54 HR, 124 RBI, and 276 strikeouts!

That would shatter the previous MLB strikeout record by 54. Dunn would also be a lock for a top 5 league MVP with that stat line.

As a Sox fan, would you sign up for that season stat line right now? Should Dunn be concerned about his strikeouts or continue swinging the way he is now?

Dunn also has 42 walks out of 222 PA, or roughly 20 percent of his PA. He strikes out roughly 37 percent of his PA, and homers in 7 percent. This means he will hit a home run, strikeout, or walk in 64 percent of his plate appearances. He is the new 3TO ala Russell Branyan and Jack Cust (3 true outcomes).

hawkjt
06-01-2012, 10:37 AM
If Dunn gives the Sox 54 homers and 124 rbis,with 130 walks....I would be extremely pleased, no matter what the strikeout numbers were.

Strikeouts are better than double-plays, altho they are not great at bats.
Still, the rbis and homers is what we got him for,and those kinds of numbers probably means the Sox win the division...happy happy.

voodoochile
06-01-2012, 10:50 AM
If Dunn gives the Sox 54 homers and 124 rbis,with 130 walks....I would be extremely pleased, no matter what the strikeout numbers were.

Thread...

Boondock Saint
06-01-2012, 11:49 AM
If Dunn gives the Sox 54 homers and 124 rbis,with 130 walks....I would be extremely pleased, no matter what the strikeout numbers were.

Strikeouts are better than double-plays, altho they are not great at bats.
Still, the rbis and homers is what we got him for,and those kinds of numbers probably means the Sox win the division...happy happy.

Hit it on the head. He's driving guys in and putting the guys behind him in the order in a good position to get RBI's, too. I don't give a **** how many times he strikes out. Every out he makes can be a strikeout if he's gonna put up those offensive numbers.

LITTLE NELL
06-01-2012, 11:50 AM
What kind of numbers would this guy have if he only struck out half the time?

Boondock Saint
06-01-2012, 11:56 AM
What kind of numbers would this guy have if he only struck out half the time?

Different, but not necessarily better. It's his approach at the plate that leads to so many walks and strikeouts. If he changes that, it doesn't mean that he just hits more HR's and gets more RBI's. Could mean lower power numbers and more singles. There's no telling.

beasly213
06-01-2012, 12:03 PM
What kind of numbers would this guy have if he only struck out half the time?

He'd have a lot less Home Runs.

LITTLE NELL
06-01-2012, 12:03 PM
Different, but not necessarily better. It's his approach at the plate that leads to so many walks and strikeouts. If he changes that, it doesn't mean that he just hits more HR's and gets more RBI's. Could mean lower power numbers and more singles. There's no telling.

I agree that there no way of ever knowing. But if he strikes out 275 times this year and he cut that in half the power numbers would have to improve a little along with his B.A.

beasly213
06-01-2012, 12:05 PM
I agree that there no way of ever knowing. But if he strikes out 275 times this year and he cut that in half the power numbers would have to improve a little.

I guess it depends on how he swings. Right now his only goal in his at bats is to drive the ball hard and far. If he worrys about striking out and just making contact his power numbers would suffer.

kobo
06-01-2012, 12:05 PM
When they signed Dunn I expected him to strike out around 200 times a season. That's part of his game.

soltrain21
06-01-2012, 12:09 PM
I agree that there no way of ever knowing. But if he strikes out 275 times this year and he cut that in half the power numbers would have to improve a little along with his B.A.

If he changes his approach to strike out less then his power numbers are going to drop rather drastically.

kittle42
06-01-2012, 12:19 PM
What kind of numbers would this guy have if he only struck out half the time?

What kind of numbers would Ichiro have if he tried to hit homers every AB (which other baseball players have actually said he could do if he wanted)?

It's just the kind of hitters guys are or choose to be. There is no point in guessing "what if" on Dunn's Ks, because it's not going to happen.

LITTLE NELL
06-01-2012, 12:27 PM
If he changes his approach to strike out less then his power numbers are going to drop rather drastically.

I don't want him to change his approach, what I was saying is what if he did make more contact without changing his swing or approach, what would his numbers be? I don't want him going up there to hit singles but I would not mind him hitting HRs that would challenge the record.

DonnieDarko
06-01-2012, 12:28 PM
I don't want him to change his approach, what I was saying is what if he did make more contact without changing his swing or approach, what would his numbers be? I don't want him going up there to hit singles but I would not mind him hitting HRs that would challenge the record.

Uh...I don't see how it's possible for him to strikeout less without changing his approach.

kittle42
06-01-2012, 12:42 PM
Uh...I don't see how it's possible for him to strikeout less without changing his approach.

Correct. Hell, I even asked him this on the season-ticket holder call with him and Stone a few weeks back!

LITTLE NELL
06-01-2012, 12:47 PM
You guys are getting way too serious about this. Its nice to think that what if Dunn was like Mickey Mantle who would swing as hard as anybody I've ever seen, led the league in SOs 5 times yet hit a ton of HRs and had a lifetime BA of .298.

DSpivack
06-01-2012, 01:40 PM
You guys are getting way to serious about this. Its nice to think that what if Dunn was like Mickey Mantle who would swing as hard as anybody I've ever seen, led the league in SOs 5 times yet hit a ton of HRs and had a lifetime BA of .298.

I'm fine with the way Dunn is right now. Jim Thome also struck out a lot. So do most sluggers. I don't think it's an insult to Dunn to say that he isn't Mickey Mantle--hardly anyone is.

beasly213
06-01-2012, 01:45 PM
You guys are getting way to serious about this. Its nice to think that what if Dunn was like Mickey Mantle who would swing as hard as anybody I've ever seen, led the league in SOs 5 times yet hit a ton of HRs and had a lifetime BA of .298.


Mickey Mantle is also one of the greatest hitters of all time...

Zakath
06-01-2012, 05:13 PM
As a Sox fan, would you sign up for that season stat line right now? Should Dunn be concerned about his strikeouts or continue swinging the way he is now?


Break down those stats a little more and the strikeout numbers don't look as bad:

Bases empty - 20-106, 4 2B, 8 HR, 8 RBI, 23 BB, 54 K, .189 AVG, .333 OBP, .786 OPS

Runners on - 21-72, 6 2B, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 19 BB, 28 K, .292 AVG, .441 OBP, 1.149 OPS

Compare that to 2011:

Bases empty - 33-231, 7 2B, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 32 BB, 101 K, .143 AVG, .253 OBP, .465 OPS

Runners on - 33-184, 9 2B, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 43 BB, 76 K, .179 AVG, .338 OBP, .696 OPS

Last year, he didn't get hits when we needed them. This year, big difference. A K with no one on is just another out. A K with runners on is a wasted opportunity, either to move them up or score them. His OPS being 450 points better with runners on this year vs. last is a BIG improvement.

doublem23
06-01-2012, 05:36 PM
Break down those stats a little more and the strikeout numbers don't look as bad:

Bases empty - 20-106, 4 2B, 8 HR, 8 RBI, 23 BB, 54 K, .189 AVG, .333 OBP, .786 OPS

Runners on - 21-72, 6 2B, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 19 BB, 28 K, .292 AVG, .441 OBP, 1.149 OPS

Compare that to 2011:

Bases empty - 33-231, 7 2B, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 32 BB, 101 K, .143 AVG, .253 OBP, .465 OPS

Runners on - 33-184, 9 2B, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 43 BB, 76 K, .179 AVG, .338 OBP, .696 OPS

Last year, he didn't get hits when we needed them. This year, big difference. A K with no one on is just another out. A K with runners on is a wasted opportunity, either to move them up or score them. His OPS being 450 points better with runners on this year vs. last is a BIG improvement.

Excellent post

kittle42
06-01-2012, 08:18 PM
Excellent post

Nah, he strikes out too much!!!

Zakath
06-01-2012, 09:54 PM
Excellent post

Amazing what you can see when you tear the numbers apart a bit. I'll admit that I was a big critic of getting Adam because career-wise, he'd always hit better with bases empty than with runners on. He's made a BIG change this year and should be applauded for it. The K's are up, but if you're producing when we need you to, you're worth the $$$.