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View Full Version : Is Dayan Viciedo Becoming One of the Better LF's in the American League?


TomBradley72
05-30-2012, 06:49 AM
Looking at his peer group (based on current depth charts)- and based on overall skills (both offense and defense)- I'd put him in the top 3rd-

The other left fielders in the AL (no particular order):

LAA- M. Trumbo
OAK- S. Smith
TOR- R. Davis
CLE- J. Damon
SEA- M. Carp
BAL- E. Chavez
TEX- D. Murphy
TB- M. Joyce
BOS- D. Nava
KC- A. Gordon
DET- A. Dirks
MIN- J. Willingham
NYY- A. Jones

doublem23
05-30-2012, 06:58 AM
Dayan's recent hot streak is fueled by a relatively unsustainable .350-ish BABIP so this level of play for him is kind of a mirage, but he has matured a lot in the past few weeks and looks like he's tapping into his talent. At the very least, you check LF off your list of positions the Sox will have covered for the foreseeable future, IMO.

Madvora
05-30-2012, 07:04 AM
If you compare his VBOP to any other players TRWIIP, it's quite obvious that his JROR should last the course of the season.

vinny
05-30-2012, 07:24 AM
If you compare his VBOP to any other players TRWIIP, it's quite obvious that his JROR should last the course of the season.
:rolling:

TomBradley72
05-30-2012, 07:55 AM
Dayan's recent hot streak is fueled by a relatively unsustainable .350-ish BABIP so this level of play for him is kind of a mirage, but he has matured a lot in the past few weeks and looks like he's tapping into his talent. At the very least, you check LF off your list of positions the Sox will have covered for the foreseeable future, IMO.

That's a good point- but it doesn't seem like he's getting a lot of bloop hits or "seeing eye' grounders- just seems like he mashing- but I would expect the league to adjust to him and we'll see if he can adjust again to keep it up.

Frater Perdurabo
05-30-2012, 07:56 AM
Dayan's recent hot streak is fueled by a relatively unsustainable .350-ish BABIP so this level of play for him is kind of a mirage, but he has matured a lot in the past few weeks and looks like he's tapping into his talent. At the very least, you check LF off your list of positions the Sox will have covered for the foreseeable future, IMO.

Not all BABIPs are created equal, though. Take a veteran contact hitter like Juan Pierre or AJ. If their BABIPs are .350, there's probably a lot of luck involved. But for Viciedo, who is young and improving, his tendency to hit hard line drives with a lot of topspin will result in a higher than league average BABIP.

Of course, hitting .520, as Viciedo has done lately, is completely unsustainable. :)

asindc
05-30-2012, 07:56 AM
Looking at his peer group (based on current depth charts)- and based on overall skills (both offense and defense)- I'd put him in the top 3rd-

The other left fielders in the AL (no particular order):

LAA- M. Trumbo
OAK- S. Smith
TOR- R. Davis
CLE- J. Damon
SEA- M. Carp
BAL- E. Chavez
TEX- D. Murphy
TB- M. Joyce
BOS- D. Nava
KC- A. Gordon
DET- A. Dirks
MIN- J. Willingham
NYY- A. Jones

Of that list, I'll take Trumbo, Joyce, Gordon, and Willingham over Tank right now and for the near future, and maybe Crawford when he gets back. That's it, though.

doublem23
05-30-2012, 08:30 AM
Not all BABIPs are created equal, though. Take a veteran contact hitter like Juan Pierre or AJ. If their BABIPs are .350, there's probably a lot of luck involved. But for Viciedo, who is young and improving, his tendency to hit hard line drives with a lot of topspin will result in a higher than league average BABIP.

Of course, hitting .520, as Viciedo has done lately, is completely unsustainable. :)

You're absolutely correct, but he's still probably hitting a bit above his head. Since April 28, when he entered the game with a .183 BA, Viciedo has .337/.362/.584 in the last 29 games, but his BABIP is still .351 in that span. FWIW, the AL League Average BABIP last year was .294 and an individual .351 mark would have been good enough for 6th in the AL behind only Adrian Gonzalez (.380), Michael Young (.367), Alex Avila (.367), Miguel Cabrera (.365), and Alex Gordon (.358). This is pretty elite air he's in right now.

Positive is that his LD% is still under the league average right now, but his HR/FB% is insane. During this run, 20% of the fly balls he hits are HR. The league average is usually around 8% (2011 it was 7.7). Only 2 players in the AL posted 20%+ HR/FB% last year; Jose Bautista and Mark Reynolds.

russ99
05-30-2012, 09:10 AM
Tank's done really well so far this year, but we're still only talking about 160 ABs, the first 80 or so weren't to this level of performance. He hit only .206, 3 HR, 4 RBIs in April.

If he can keep this up through a good part of the season, then I'd put him in the top 5 of AL LFs.

Eddie Scissors
05-30-2012, 09:41 AM
Tanks BABIP is high because he hits the ball harder than almost anyone in baseball. Steve Stone said most guys have to hit a ground ball 6 feet away from a fielder for it to go through, tank has to hit it 2 or 3 feet away from a fielder for it to go through.

As you said, it is still a high BABIP so it WILL go down, but expect Tanks BABIP to be a lot higher than most guys. Tanks probably not going to hit 45 home runs, but I have a good feeling this guy is the real deal.

Easily a top 5 left fielder and quite possibly the hottest man in baseball right now. Also had some clutch hits yesterday and plays a very solid left field with an absolutely cannon.

Eddie Scissors
05-30-2012, 09:43 AM
tanks

The Immigrant
05-30-2012, 11:12 AM
Tank's done really well so far this year, but we're still only talking about 160 ABs, the first 80 or so weren't to this level of performance. He hit only .206, 3 HR, 4 RBIs in April.

If he can keep this up through a good part of the season, then I'd put him in the top 5 of AL LFs.

If we put a 55-gallon drum in LF and told Viciedo to take the rest of the season off, we'd still be getting better production from our left fielder than we did last year.

doublem23
05-30-2012, 11:38 AM
If we put a 55-gallon drum in LF and told Viciedo to take the rest of the season off, we'd still be getting better production from our left fielder that we did last year.

:rolling:

TomBradley72
05-30-2012, 11:47 AM
If we put a 55-gallon drum in LF and told Viciedo to take the rest of the season off, we'd still be getting better production from our left fielder that we did last year.

The 55 gallon drum would have a better throwing arm than JP-

amsteel
05-30-2012, 01:34 PM
Does anyone have a picture of the sign I've seen a couple times at Sox games of Dayan's head on top of a Tank firing? It cracks me up every time.

shes
05-30-2012, 01:56 PM
You're absolutely correct, but he's still probably hitting a bit above his head. Since April 28, when he entered the game with a .183 BA, Viciedo has .337/.362/.584 in the last 29 games, but his BABIP is still .351 in that span. FWIW, the AL League Average BABIP last year was .294 and an individual .351 mark would have been good enough for 6th in the AL behind only Adrian Gonzalez (.380), Michael Young (.367), Alex Avila (.367), Miguel Cabrera (.365), and Alex Gordon (.358). This is pretty elite air he's in right now.

Positive is that his LD% is still under the league average right now, but his HR/FB% is insane. During this run, 20% of the fly balls he hits are HR. The league average is usually around 8% (2011 it was 7.7). Only 2 players in the AL posted 20%+ HR/FB% last year; Jose Bautista and Mark Reynolds.

The low LD% is actually what makes me think his average will settle back down rather than sustain. Guys who routinely have a sky-high BABIP (the Vottos of the world) always have a high LD%. It essentially means you're putting good wood on the ball and not just getting "lucky."

soxinem1
05-30-2012, 03:16 PM
Dayan's recent hot streak is fueled by a relatively unsustainable .350-ish BABIP so this level of play for him is kind of a mirage, but he has matured a lot in the past few weeks and looks like he's tapping into his talent. At the very least, you check LF off your list of positions the Sox will have covered for the foreseeable future, IMO.

He actually looks pretty confident defensively as well. He cuts paths as good as any experienced LF and is not afraid to go after the ball.

TheVulture
05-31-2012, 03:29 PM
The low LD% is actually what makes me think his average will settle back down rather than sustain. Guys who routinely have a sky-high BABIP (the Vottos of the world) always have a high LD%. It essentially means you're putting good wood on the ball and not just getting "lucky."

I don't know if you've watched any Sox games lately, but you don't need stats to see that Tank is putting good wood on the ball. Tank's LD% isn't going to change that fact. He hits them hard on the ground, on a line and into the sky. Balls that look like high pop ups off the bat but end up traveling 400+ feet aren't increasing LD%, yet the ball has obviously been crushed.

amsteel
05-31-2012, 03:36 PM
1 number and 3 words stand between Dayan and being a really top notch LF:

4 walks this season

He's not as bad as he was in April and he's (no one!) is as good as he's been over the last 10 days. He's somewhere in the middle, hopefully closer to his recent production.

kufram
06-01-2012, 01:54 AM
1 number and 3 words stand between Dayan and being a really top notch LF:

4 walks this season

He's not as bad as he was in April and he's (no one!) is as good as he's been over the last 10 days. He's somewhere in the middle, hopefully closer to his recent production.


Yes.He's not swinging with all his might at balls he cannot possibly hit. Dare I say it could be partly due to good coaching and a manager giving him time to figure it out?

SephClone89
06-01-2012, 05:49 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/44472/five-non-superstars-who-had-a-great-may

Sweet Spot bloggers name Viciedo one of the "non-superstars" who excelled in May. Interestingly enough, they refer to Konerko as a "superstar" in the opening. Interesting.