View Full Version : Most successful base to steal

04-09-2012, 12:07 AM
Does anyone know which base is easier to steal statistically speaking....2nd or 3rd. I know 3rd base is a shorter throw for the catcher, but I thought I remember hearing that 3rd base is stolen at a higher success rate because the runner at 2nd can get a bigger lead because they aren't being "held on" like they are at first.

Thanks in advance for any infor on finding the answer.


04-09-2012, 08:39 AM
It seems to me like runners are more successful at stealing third, probably because the teams are more selective about when to do it. I don't have any statistics to back it up though.

Plus, pickoffs are considered "Caught Stealing". Pickoffs at first happen somewhat frequently (especially if Buehrle is pitching), while pickoffs at second almost never happen. So from a percentage standpoint, I would bet that the stolen third base has a significantly higher success rate, but I would also guess it is much harder to accomplish since teams hardly ever do it unless there is a real Vince Coleman speedster or a terrible catcher (or pitcher at holding runners on).

As a side note, Buehrle's pickoff move is one of the things I'm really going to miss about having him in Chicago. His pickoff move and his defense were what really made him known on a national stage.

04-09-2012, 02:52 PM
In 2011 here are the SB%:
2nd: 2839/3940 (72.05%)
3rd: 426/551 (77.31%)
Home: 14/49 (28.57%)

In 2010:
2nd: 2593/3570 (72.63%)
3rd: 353/474 (74.47%)
Home: 13/44 (29.54%)

I'm guessing the majority of failed steals at home are botched squeeze attempts.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-baserunning-batting.shtml