PDA

View Full Version : 2012 Baseball Prospectus Predictions


doublem23
03-28-2012, 07:49 PM
These have been out for a while but I didn't look until today after the reaction to SI's very pessimistic predictions for the Sox.

BP has the Sox 3rd in the division finishing with 77-79 wins.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

They give us a 13% chance to win the division (higher than I expected) and 19% chance at the postseason.

LITTLE NELL
03-28-2012, 08:08 PM
This is closer to what we should expect instead of SIs prediction joke.
Lots of ifs with the Sox this year and if all the planets line up the right way and Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Beckham have Comeback Player type years the team should be in the race to the end.

Noneck
03-28-2012, 08:58 PM
Sounds like a fair prediction to me.

Frater Perdurabo
03-28-2012, 09:05 PM
I also think this is fair.

ChiSoxGal85
03-28-2012, 09:18 PM
This is closer to what we should expect instead of SIs prediction joke.
Lots of ifs with the Sox this year and if all the planets line up the right way and Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Beckham have Comeback Player type years the team should be in the race to the end.
:thumbsup:

BRDSR
03-28-2012, 09:29 PM
I agree, this seems like a very good prediction.

The difference between BP and SI is probably that BP appropriately takes into account career averages and SI probably just does a gut check based on last year's team +/- whatever players were gained and loss. With SI's method we probably are a 67-win team, but it's unrealistic to believe that players with career lows will have similar career lows two years in a row.

The main differences from last year's opening day roster are Juan Pierre, Mark Buerhle, Edwin Jackson, Sergio Santos, and Carlos Quentin. Buerhle and Santos are probably (but not necessarily) net losses, while the others are likely washes at worst. This year's team is also younger, with more potential up/downside. A season similar to last's is most likely, but if some young guys perform well and veterans Dunn/Rios/Beckham return to expected form, the Sox are easily an 85+ win team. It's just that those are a lot of ifs.

Marqhead
03-28-2012, 09:48 PM
WSI Automated Response:

"Those clowns at BP have done it again, what a bunch of clowns."

doublem23
03-28-2012, 09:55 PM
WSI Automated Response:

"Those clowns at BP have done it again, what a bunch of clowns."

How do we keep up on the news like that?

Brian26
03-28-2012, 09:58 PM
They give us a 13% chance to win the division (higher than I expected) and 19% chance at the postseason.

I was expecting they would say we had a 19% chance to win the division and a 13% chance at the playoffs.

DumpJerry
03-28-2012, 10:04 PM
Every team has a lot of"ifs."


Also, no team knows who will be injured, for how long or how seriously. This is why I don't put much credence in pre-season predictions.

palehosepub
03-29-2012, 08:36 AM
I thought if fair and objective as far as the White Sox odds. I am surprised that they have the Royals last, even without Soria and with a mediocre rotation I still se them being very competitive and winning 75-79 games; too much good young talent on that team.

Milw
03-29-2012, 09:21 AM
I thought if fair and objective as far as the White Sox odds. I am surprised that they have the Royals last, even without Soria and with a mediocre rotation I still se them being very competitive and winning 75-79 games; too much good young talent on that team.
People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

Madvora
03-29-2012, 09:44 AM
Houston has no chance at all of making the playoffs.

palehosepub
03-29-2012, 10:31 AM
People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

I'll take the over this year

russ99
03-29-2012, 10:48 AM
Houston has no chance at all of making the playoffs.

True, but they're going to have a much better team this year than people think, and might even finish higher than the Cubs.

Lots of decent young talent in that lineup, a decent rotation and the only real issue is the bullpen, especially after they deal Myers.

amsteel
03-29-2012, 11:06 AM
I'll gladly take a 1 in 5 chance of making the postseason, even if it's one game.

seventyseven
03-29-2012, 11:11 AM
I just can't see this team being .500 with our starting rotation as it stands. We better plan to win a lot of 9-7 games.

Milw
03-29-2012, 11:58 AM
I just can't see this team being .500 with our starting rotation as it stands. We better plan to win a lot of 9-7 games.
Could be my Sox fan bias, but I see Chris Sale having a very strong year, in the 14-16 win range. If that comes through--and I realize I'm basing that solely on gut--and the rest of the staff plays to expectations, this is an 80-82 win team. And if Peavy actually steps it up and is something close to the guy we thought we were getting--not necessarily likely, but certainly plausible--this is a wild card contender.

pudge
03-29-2012, 02:38 PM
This seems more reasonable than all these last-place predictions. (ESPN just put us 5th today.)

Not sure what I'm missing but it's still a lineup with Konerko, Dunn, Rios, Alexei, and a rotation with a couple guys who got us to the post-season in 2008. Maybe it's the rookie manager that nobody likes, but last place seems like a stretch.

Dibbs
03-29-2012, 02:54 PM
This seems much higher than their average prediction for the White Sox. I guess they like our chances for once.

voodoochile
03-29-2012, 03:02 PM
I ag...

argh...

I agr...

damnit...

I a-a-a-a-a-a...

Oh **** it. I just can't bring myself to agree with BP even if I think their projection is fairly accurate for once.

TomBradley72
03-29-2012, 03:31 PM
It's a reasonable projection- but I think they are understating the White Sox runs/game output- I think 2/3 (from Dunn/Rios/Beckham) will bounce back this year and that will be a big lift to the line up.

palehosepub
03-29-2012, 04:29 PM
I think that even though Robin is inexperienced his consistency and calm demeanor will improve the clubhouse over the Ozzie zoo of the last few years, which has been recognized by most as a significant distraction as well as a negative influence.

I also think Morel will be a pleasant surprise with his bat.

Of the "three headed albatross" I think Dunn will show the most significant improvement and Rios will continue his lackadaisical mediocrity. I am concerned about Peavy's health -whether he can be effective as well as stay healthy. I think that's a lot to ask.

I am really unsure about Beckham, this is really a big year for him.

Im hoping for competitive baseball that will keep my interest until at least Labor Day. If I had to lay down money I would say 79-83.

Foulke You
04-01-2012, 01:18 AM
True, but they're going to have a much better team this year than people think, and might even finish higher than the Cubs.

Lots of decent young talent in that lineup, a decent rotation and the only real issue is the bullpen, especially after they deal Myers.
The Astros are in for a long season. Looking at that roster, I really don't think this is the year for surprises in Houston. They are years away from contending, especially since they are moving to the AL next season. They need to just play their minor leaguers and hope they strike gold on a few of their prospects.

Tragg
04-01-2012, 10:55 AM
True, but they're going to have a much better team this year than people think, and might even finish higher than the Cubs.

Lots of decent young talent in that lineup, a decent rotation and the only real issue is the bullpen, especially after they deal Myers.

How's my man Bogusevic doing? I have the Astros on practically every night during the season (at least in the background) and hope he makes the club. Based on what I saw last year, they need help at front-line pitching too.

I'm surprised at how few wins they predict for the Tigers. They've been almost universally considered the biggest "cinch" to win the division. I think 88 for them is pretty accurate though. They have a lot of studs, but a lot of holes.

SI1020
04-01-2012, 07:26 PM
People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized. I agree. I'll believe it when I see it.

RCWHITESOX
04-01-2012, 08:37 PM
The LA Times has the Sox picked for 2nd in their division. Myself I am going to be an optimist because I really feel this team and new leadership will suprise a lot of so called experts.

guillensdisciple
04-02-2012, 08:50 AM
The LA Times has the Sox picked for 2nd in their division. Myself I am going to be an optimist because I really feel this team and new leadership will suprise a lot of so called experts.

I am not telling you not to be an optimist but that is a high ranking for sure.

doublem23
04-02-2012, 08:57 AM
I am not telling you not to be an optimist but that is a high ranking for sure.

Potentially a commentary on how bad the rest of the division will be. Somebody has to finish 2nd behind Detroit.

TDog
04-02-2012, 11:21 AM
As predictions go, it's a safe one. The White Sox finished below .500 last year and lost their opening day starter during the offseason and come up with any big acquisitions. Certainly because Baseball Prospectus is looking toward the fat part of the bell curve with the White Sox, it won't go out on a limb the way Sport Illustrated did. But perhaps Sports Illustrated is aware that it hasn't been relevant for years. People ignore it. But if it makes a wild prijection that pans out, it has genious bragging rights.

Maybe the Baseball Prospectus numbers will be right. It's doubtful that both the record and analysis will be spot on. For 2007, Baseball Prospectus was right about the record but wrong about the White Sox having a solid bullpen. Last year, it was wrong about the Twins finishing ahead of the Tigers and wrong in its analysis of why the Twins would finish ahead of the Tigers.

All predictions are flawed because they are just guesses, some more educated than others. When I was a freshman in high school, I bought a few of the preseason baseball magazines and read how Richie Allen, for whom the White Sox had given up Tommy John, would destroy the up-and-coming White Sox.

russ99
04-02-2012, 12:27 PM
How's my man Bogusevic doing? I have the Astros on practically every night during the season (at least in the background) and hope he makes the club. Based on what I saw last year, they need help at front-line pitching too.



Bogusevic is doing pretty good. He's moved up the system quickly since he switched from pitcher to OF, and had a great last month of the season in Houston. With Bourgeois traded to KC, he's got a full time RF spot pretty much locked up. Looks like he's batting 5th or 6th.

Bogusevic, JD Martinez, Altuve, Castro and to a lesser extent Lowrie are going to be fun to watch this year.

I love what the new GM did, he cut Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke and pushed all the young starters up the depth chart. With a good spring, it looks like former Sox Lucas Harrell is close to getting either the 5th starter job or being the long man out of the pen.

With Brett Myers as closer and him and Wandy Rodriguez on the trade block, hopefully the young starting pitching can take a step up and catch up a bit to the young hitters. Maybe Cosart, Springer, Singleton and the #1 pick can push for big league jobs next spring. But a quality Astros team is still 3-4 years away.

Milw
04-25-2012, 01:08 PM
People have said that about the Royals every year for the past 6 or so. If there's one thing that franchise is consistently good at, it's having a bright future that is never actually realized.

I'll take the over this year
Still feeling good about that over? Once again, the Royals fail to live up to the hype.

kittle42
04-25-2012, 02:03 PM
Still feeling good about that over? Once again, the Royals fail to live up to the hype.

The season is 10% over.