PDA

View Full Version : How do you (re)build?


balke
02-19-2012, 01:49 PM
I think it's safe to say that's what has to happen over the next 2-5 years. How does a team like the Sox do this?

AJ - 35
PK - 35
Dunn - 32
Rios - 31
Thornton - 35
Peavy - 30


I think these guys are in need of evaluation. Dunn is probably stuck here through the contract for better or worse - Peavy might come back for a low deal after the Sox say no to the option. Otherwise I think these above players are leaving soon.

C Flowers - 26
SS Alexei - 30
2B Beckham - 25
3B Morel - 23
OF Viciedo - 22
SP Sale - 22
CL Reed - 23
SP Molina - 23
SP Danks - 26
SP Stewart - 25
SP Floyd - 29
RP Axelrod - 26
RP Crain - 30

These are the guys I think the Sox would consider growing around at least short term. And honestly I hesitate to include Flowers, and Axelrod as guys they are expecting much from long term. Morel is also kinda on the fence - but they speak highly of him.



Say the Sox clear salary room for 2 years and let some of these contracts play out (my expectation). By that time - Alexei is 32 years old, Floyd is 31, and Crain is 32.

If the Sox aren't strong all around by them - they waste a great shortstop in Alexei. Is it time to shop around Alexei to a team who realizes his defensive value?

What is the new priority position to you? I say catcher and SS. I think the Sox should realize Alexei's value and concede that he could go very well to a contender with need at the break. Then - if they do get a catcher or SS in a deal - do you try to deal a guy like Dayan if he's doing well? Sacrifice a young power hitting outfielder - and try to find a good young catcher or Shortstop? Build for 4-5 years down the road instead of trying to win at a mediocre pace in 2014?


What are thoughts and opinions on this? How would you as a fan react if the Sox thought about the 2015 team instead of 2013? How would you suggest they move forward as a team? Should they just keep throwing money at it and fix it in free agency?

Lip Man 1
02-19-2012, 02:40 PM
Balke:

I think when you get down to it the Sox basically are in a 'holding' position despite what may be said publicly because of one crucial reason...at this point no one knows how long current ownership is going to remain in place and what happens when they are gone.

It's very hard to think five, ten years out when the CEO is 76 and has stated his family wants no part of owning the Sox when he leaves the scene.

It's a bad spot to be in and complicates an already tough situation with the farm system and the issues the past few years between the former field manager and the general manager which spilled over into the dugout.

Lip

palehosepub
02-19-2012, 03:46 PM
I think Lip is right that this is a holding year but if you are serious about rebuilding you have to have a different GM to lead the way, KW's skills are not a match for that type of process. I think that this will be an issue where JR's loyalties may stand in the way of making it happen. I think Kenny still could be an effective GM but not for a situation that the Sox appear to be heading.

Frontman
02-19-2012, 03:51 PM
It will take time, and the Sox have already started the process. What's the magic answer? Nobody really knows. But as a few have pointed out, JR soon to move away from owning the team really complicates matters.

We'll just have to see what they do.

gosox41
02-19-2012, 05:36 PM
I think it's safe to say that's what has to happen over the next 2-5 years. How does a team like the Sox do this?

AJ - 35
PK - 35
Dunn - 32
Rios - 31
Thornton - 35
Peavy - 30


I think these guys are in need of evaluation. Dunn is probably stuck here through the contract for better or worse - Peavy might come back for a low deal after the Sox say no to the option. Otherwise I think these above players are leaving soon.

C Flowers - 26
SS Alexei - 30
2B Beckham - 25
3B Morel - 23
OF Viciedo - 22
SP Sale - 22
CL Reed - 23
SP Molina - 23
SP Danks - 26
SP Stewart - 25
SP Floyd - 29
RP Axelrod - 26
RP Crain - 30

These are the guys I think the Sox would consider growing around at least short term. And honestly I hesitate to include Flowers, and Axelrod as guys they are expecting much from long term. Morel is also kinda on the fence - but they speak highly of him.



Say the Sox clear salary room for 2 years and let some of these contracts play out (my expectation). By that time - Alexei is 32 years old, Floyd is 31, and Crain is 32.

If the Sox aren't strong all around by them - they waste a great shortstop in Alexei. Is it time to shop around Alexei to a team who realizes his defensive value?

What is the new priority position to you? I say catcher and SS. I think the Sox should realize Alexei's value and concede that he could go very well to a contender with need at the break. Then - if they do get a catcher or SS in a deal - do you try to deal a guy like Dayan if he's doing well? Sacrifice a young power hitting outfielder - and try to find a good young catcher or Shortstop? Build for 4-5 years down the road instead of trying to win at a mediocre pace in 2014?


What are thoughts and opinions on this? How would you as a fan react if the Sox thought about the 2015 team instead of 2013? How would you suggest they move forward as a team? Should they just keep throwing money at it and fix it in free agency?

The new CBA rule regarding the draft help the Sox. That being said, the Sox need to adapt to the new rules.

The future of this team depends on not only how it scouts and drafts but how it develops young talent. I don't think as much focus has been on the developmental side of talent as it is on drafting talent. Bottom line is now that the rules of drafting have leveled the field for teams that don't spend as much, the Sox would be smart to figure out a system of developing talent.

No more of this rushing guys like Beckham because they hit .300 in 20 games in the minors. There is a learning curve from college to the minors and a learning curve from the majors to the minors. Teams are going to get more specific on getting maximum talent out of each player so that when they reach the majors we don't see 2-3 years of struggles only to see the player hit their stride and be productive to the team when they are close to becoming free agents.

KW and his organization has done a horrible job of developing talent. The win now philosohy followed by the need to show that we can draft well has forced them to rush up players before they were ready.

Beckham, Sale, and Morel are examples of this. Less so on Sale because he has been productive, but shouldn't he be getting starting pitching experience in the minors before the majors? At least 1/2 a season?

Hopefulle KW won't feel the need to rush Molina and the two guys we rec'd for TCQ. Let them have another year of success. Don't rush them because of lack of alternatives and the need show the fans we have talent. I'd rather them not waste any of their first 6 years of their major league career learning how to pitch in the majors.


Bob

DoItForDanPasqua
02-19-2012, 05:41 PM
The Sox don't have the farm system to rebuild and would have to make some really good trades involving their veterans to improve it. If the trade of Santos for magic beans was an example, I agree with the previous poster that KW may not be the best guy to rebuild the franchise.

russ99
02-20-2012, 01:23 PM
This could go one of two ways:

1) Holding pattern - By 2015 (if not sooner by trade) all the big salaries will be off the books, so in the meantime the Sox develop as many young players as they can. Then go back to spending like a big market team to fill in the empty spots when there's enough financial flexibility.

2) A real rebuild - All players of value are sold off for prospects and a 3-4 year period of the dark ages until enough players develop to become an interesting team again. Every big league team eventually goes through this, even the Yankees (89-92), so it could happen. However, our potential for spending on the right young players could speed that up beyond what a team like the Astros is going through now.

Knowing that there's at least a small possibility that Jerry could sell the team in that timeframe, I'd say either are possible.

TDog
02-20-2012, 01:36 PM
The Sox don't have the farm system to rebuild and would have to make some really good trades involving their veterans to improve it. If the trade of Santos for magic beans was an example, I agree with the previous poster that KW may not be the best guy to rebuild the franchise.


Thornton was a better closer in April, when Sox fans wanted to run him out of town and never see him pitch again, than Santos was in September, for the last two Septembers, really. And the Sox played better defense behind Santos. Santos gave up five 9th-inning and one 10th inning home runs last year, and they didn't come in games where he was just getting work in. Granted, that isn't quite in Billy Koch's league, but all but an extra-inning home run in a game Santos lost resulted in blown saves. In most cities, that wouldn't inspire excitement about the closer.

I won't call what the Sox got for Santos "magic beans" because I have never seen them pitch, but I wouldn't call Santos a magical closer, either.

If you trade veterans for prospects in order to rebuild, you're going to get a lot of players who fans believe are magic beans. Even most of the highly touted prospects in other organizations that people may have heard of don't become stars.

DoItForDanPasqua
02-20-2012, 01:42 PM
If you trade veterans for prospects in order to rebuild, you're going to get a lot of players who fans believe are magic beans. Even most of the highly touted prospects in other organizations that people may have heard of don't become stars.

But the question is how to rebuild. The Sox have the lowest rated farm system. What other options are there to restock it?

TaylorStSox
02-20-2012, 01:55 PM
But the question is how to rebuild. The Sox have the lowest rated farm system. What other options are there to restock it?
Floyd, Thornton and Crain should have more value around the deadline. We move them for prospects. Hopefully AJ has a decent first half. We can move him for a low level/high upside prospect. Ramirez should be able to bring back a decent haul. There's no need to rush. The Sox have time to wait for the most value for the few valuable pieces they do have. I believe we have a good core of young starters to build around. The staff is where everything starts. The organization and fanbase just need to have patience. Luckily, bad baseball is better than no baseball.

In the meantime, you pray that everyone has a bounce back year and they can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.

TDog
02-20-2012, 02:18 PM
But the question is how to rebuild. The Sox have the lowest rated farm system. What other options are there to restock it?

You won't restock it appreciably by trading your star players (among whom I don't believe Santos numbered). The name players you get might improve your rating, but the highest rated prospects often don't work out at the major league level, which is the bottom line. If you traded everyone, hypthetically, even the players with untradable contracts, analysts, longtime observers of baseball talent and the like would rate your system higher, but most of the players wouldn't pan out, especially if you have a core that you expect to develop into the next generation, something people believe the A's are doing or have for years believed the Royals are doing.

You are better off scouting players who are underappreciated by their teams or overshadowed by other more highly rated players and deemed expendable and you try to acquire them for players like Santos who have a little bit of value. There is the draft, of course. In baseball, there are fewer undrafted amateurs than in other sports that limit rounds, but you have international talent. There are minor-league free agents who have been let go because they got lost in a team's farm system (Kelly Wunsch, a former first-round draft pick, was such a player, and he was a solid reliever before developing arm trouble.)

It isn't all about trading your veterans. Trading stars is something people like to talk about. But there was a time when the White Sox had the top-rated farm system because Scott Ruffcorn and James Baldwin, who the White Sox refused to trade, were going to be stars. Baldwin never had a solid complete season. Ruffcorn never won a major league game.

BainesHOF
02-21-2012, 03:52 AM
This organization has no chance to rebuild until there's a housecleaning in the front office. Williams' regime has produced one of the worst, if not the worst, minor league system in baseball. Incredibly, a handful of his staff received promotions. It reminds me of bankrupt back honchos receiving big bonuses.

slavko
02-21-2012, 10:18 AM
This organization has no chance to rebuild until there's a housecleaning in the front office. Williams' regime has produced one of the worst, if not the worst, minor league system in baseball. Incredibly, a handful of his staff received promotions. It reminds me of bankrupt back honchos receiving big bonuses.

Dire, but logic says you have to agree with it unless they have a hidden set of skills not previously displayed.

As far as an ownership change, maybe one or more of the other partners have ideas other than a complete sale for After Jerry. I keep telling you that Zell owns more of the club than is generally known. Just my opinion, of course.

russ99
02-22-2012, 09:34 AM
You won't restock it appreciably by trading your star players (among whom I don't believe Santos numbered). The name players you get might improve your rating, but the highest rated prospects often don't work out at the major league level, which is the bottom line. If you traded everyone, hypthetically, even the players with untradable contracts, analysts, longtime observers of baseball talent and the like would rate your system higher, but most of the players wouldn't pan out, especially if you have a core that you expect to develop into the next generation, something people believe the A's are doing or have for years believed the Royals are doing.

You are better off scouting players who are underappreciated by their teams or overshadowed by other more highly rated players and deemed expendable and you try to acquire them for players like Santos who have a little bit of value. There is the draft, of course. In baseball, there are fewer undrafted amateurs than in other sports that limit rounds, but you have international talent. There are minor-league free agents who have been let go because they got lost in a team's farm system (Kelly Wunsch, a former first-round draft pick, was such a player, and he was a solid reliever before developing arm trouble.)

It isn't all about trading your veterans. Trading stars is something people like to talk about. But there was a time when the White Sox had the top-rated farm system because Scott Ruffcorn and James Baldwin, who the White Sox refused to trade, were going to be stars. Baldwin never had a solid complete season. Ruffcorn never won a major league game.

Yet this method is risky if it doesn't pay off 2-3 years down the road.

The Astros were in this exact spot a few years ago, poor season with quality veterans and the worst minor league system in the majors and refused to trade veterans to rebuild, then still had to do so 2 years later, thus extending the time needed to rebuild through the farm.

Had they traded Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Tejada, Valverde and Bourn earlier and started the rebuild then with the prospects brought in from those deals, they may not still be at rock bottom with some young players just starting to filter up now.

The Sox have the same approach in the draft as McLane did in Houston (though McLane was even more in lockstep with Bud on slotting, and even worse when it came to signings) and it cost them a chance to pull out of the downward spiral earlier.

If the delayed reloading doesn't work, we could be in the same spot in 2-3 years.

doublem23
02-22-2012, 10:10 AM
Yet this method is risky if it doesn't pay off 2-3 years down the road.

The Astros were in this exact spot a few years ago, poor season with quality veterans and the worst minor league system in the majors and refused to trade veterans to rebuild, then still had to do so 2 years later, thus extending the time needed to rebuild through the farm.

Had they traded Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Tejada, Valverde and Bourn earlier and started the rebuild then with the prospects brought in from those deals, they may not still be at rock bottom with some young players just starting to filter up now.

The Sox have the same approach in the draft as McLane did in Houston (though McLane was even more in lockstep with Bud on slotting, and even worse when it came to signings) and it cost them a chance to pull out of the downward spiral earlier.

If the delayed reloading doesn't work, we could be in the same spot in 2-3 years.

The correct answer is a good mixture of both. People who think you can build a team entirely from within due to the Draft are insane (especially with the new CBA) and people who think you can ignore the draft and the farm system entirely are equally insane. Look at every good team in the league. None of them take either all or nothing approach.

The Sox don't need to blow the whole thing up and start from Square 1, over the past 2 years, they've won more games than they've lost, they just need to get better in certain areas. Even last year's cataclysmically bad season, they won 79 games. It's not like we're the Pirates, on some ridiculous losing streak here. Get better, get smarter, all that good stuff.

palehozenychicty
02-22-2012, 06:53 PM
The correct answer is a good mixture of both. People who think you can build a team entirely from within due to the Draft are insane (especially with the new CBA) and people who think you can ignore the draft and the farm system entirely are equally insane. Look at every good team in the league. None of them take either all or nothing approach.

The Sox don't need to blow the whole thing up and start from Square 1, over the past 2 years, they've won more games than they've lost, they just need to get better in certain areas. Even last year's cataclysmically bad season, they won 79 games. It's not like we're the Pirates, on some ridiculous losing streak here. Get better, get smarter, all that good stuff.

True. The better franchises in the game over the past decade or so do this well.

By that, I mean the Eastern corridor, Atlanta, St. Louis, the Halos, and now, possibly, the Rangers, have a core of about three-five homegrown players who are perennial All-Stars at key positions who played through the organization together at the same pace.

At the end of the day, those guys are the backbone in the clubhouse and shape business affairs. If you have those players, you can win consistently.

Scouting and development, as we know, is a crapshoot in MLB. Free agency is a crapshoot. But scouting and development seems to hold greater weight when successful.

There is no magic elixir to winning such a strange game. But if you have a collection of guys that have deep relationships and are talented on the field, good things happen.

Dan H
02-23-2012, 06:39 PM
Unless a team is championship winning dynasty, I think rebuilding should be a constant process. I never liked the phrase "blow it up" because the building from the bottom takes so long. I have not understood KW's "winning it now' approach after the team won in '05. That championship bought him some good will for a time. It was in the years before when fans were desperate for a World Series that just wasn't happening.

Regardless, the Sox still have enough young players now. The key to 2012 is not the record. I have no expectations there. The big thing this year is the development of the younger players. If we see some potential on the horizon, another season without the playoffs will be easier to take.