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View Full Version : Long Term Consequences of Dunn/Rios/Peavy on FA signings


amsteel
08-31-2011, 04:37 PM
I don't mean in the context of "there's no money left 2011-2014" for big FA signings, rather do you think the organization will be afraid to pull the trigger on big $ signings due to the failures of Dunn/Rios/Peavy?

I realize alot of it will depend on the GM and Kenny's future is unclear, but alot of big money decisions come down to the owner.

I would think that as a GM you can't let past failures cloud future decisions, but it is possible to avoid signing boom/bust guys like Dunn or damaged goods like Peavy. Essentialy, stick to low risk guys.

I could see this happening and would like to hear others thoughts.

eriqjaffe
08-31-2011, 04:38 PM
Only Dunn was a FA signing.

Long answer: yes.

amsteel
08-31-2011, 04:54 PM
Only Dunn was a FA signing.

Long answer: yes.

Good call, I used 'FA signings' as a placeholder for any big money signing; whether its waiver wire, via trade, or FA.

AnkleSox
08-31-2011, 04:59 PM
I would hope they would just be afraid to make stupid signings, as these were. Dunn was an aging all or nothing slugger, Peavy was injured when the trade was made, and Rios was well-known as a lollygagger who Toronto was willing to part with for next to nothing. None of those moves screams "genius" to me.

kittle42
08-31-2011, 05:11 PM
Does anyone really want Williams signing any big free agents anymore?

central44
08-31-2011, 05:22 PM
I'm hoping that the Marlins are desperate enough that they'll accept a Ozzie to Florida trade in exchange for taking Dunn and Rios with him.

Well okay, I know they're not that stupid. I like that KW tried to be aggressive and I dont fault him for these moves, because only in hindsight do we see how poorly they worked out. That said, I think they'll be more careful with these types of moves...but I do think they'll keep making them. Unless you have a good farm system (the Sox don't) then you have to take those risks if you want to get to the top.

Hopefully Viciedo, Flowers, Beckham, and Morel all end up being what we think they can, and De Aza turns out to be better than a DeWayne Wise type 4A outfielder (not trying to troll, i'm thrilled with De Aza so far and hope this is for real).

Then, maybe they won't need to take the huge gambles to put them over the top and can fill the rest of the roster with solid, safe players.

thomas35forever
08-31-2011, 05:25 PM
I know Reinsdorf has never been big on signing pitchers to long-term deals, but what about position players? I think that's the more pressing issue here. Was it made clear during the Belle signing?

TheOldRoman
08-31-2011, 05:37 PM
but it is possible to avoid signing boom/bust guys like Dunn or damaged goods like Peavy. Essentialy, stick to low risk guys.
This part is wrong. Peavy wasn't damaged goods other than his ankle being broken. Obviously, that is something. Still, he had no arm problems at all. He didn't have a history of being riddled with injuries and his torn lat wasn't a result of his broken ankle. As Dunn, what is boom or bust other than his homers and strikeouts? He was one of the most consistent players in the majors over the last decade. He always struck out a lot, but he hit at least 38 homers with 90 RBIs each of the last 7 seasons. He is also in the middle of his prime. His signing was nothing like the claim for Rios, who had a big contract but was coming off a bad year.

As for whether or not these moves have an impact, I guess that depends upon how long KW is here and how long Reinsdorf is chairman.

WhiteSox5187
08-31-2011, 05:44 PM
The consequences of these moves are going to be felt next year where in order to keep a guy like Buerhle we will have to move Quentin (unless Jerry is going to open up the books a bit more). We will also probably lose Danks because of these acquisitions. Kenny likes to think of himself as a gambler and he has come up bust on a lot of his recent moves.

34 Inch Stick
08-31-2011, 05:49 PM
Dunn sure didn't seem boom or bust to me. He had steady production for a decade and was still relatively young

Lip Man 1
08-31-2011, 05:57 PM
A lot will depend on two things in my opinion.

1. Who will be the G.M. (A new person may get more wiggle room from JR. If Kenny remains...it depends of how much confidence JR still has in his decision making ability)

2. If JR is willing to extend himself again and hope for a better result. I think the organization can lose money again next season but it's going to be hard to justify given the fan backlash if both Kenny and Ozzie remain. Without massive front office and field manager changes (a la September 1970) fans are going to be very hesitent to buy tickets.

Lip

shes
08-31-2011, 05:59 PM
Dunn sure didn't seem boom or bust to me. He had steady production for a decade and was still relatively young

Correct. His production had been on a favorable HOF track before this year. It was a good signing at the time; no one could have foreseen this.

HaroMaster87
08-31-2011, 06:44 PM
I feel like next year its gonna be the big 3 contracts that are unmovable...Dunn, Rios & peavy and the rest of the team will be near league minimum guys...

That outta be fun...:bandance:

kevingrt
08-31-2011, 07:09 PM
I feel like next year its gonna be the big 3 contracts that are unmovable...Dunn, Rios & peavy and the rest of the team will be near league minimum guys...

That outta be fun...:bandance:

Hey if our minimum guys perform as well as Flowers, De Aza, Sale, Santos, and Viciedo have been performing then it should be fun.

Glass half full. :D:

HaroMaster87
08-31-2011, 07:26 PM
Hey if our minimum guys perform as well as Flowers, De Aza, Sale, Santos, and Viciedo have been performing then it should be fun.

Glass half full. :D:

Yea, lets hope...and not like Beckham, Morel...

asindc
08-31-2011, 07:35 PM
Yea, lets hope...and not like Beckham, Morel...

We need to remember is a rookie.

boiker
08-31-2011, 07:39 PM
Correct. His production had been on a favorable HOF track before this year. It was a good signing at the time; no one could have foreseen this.

I didn't foresee .160 average, but I did foresee 160 strikeouts-- many coming in the worst possible situations.

HaroMaster87
08-31-2011, 07:57 PM
We need to remember is a rookie.

Conversely, a bunch of rookies come up and rake...

asindc
08-31-2011, 08:01 PM
Conversely, a bunch of rookies come up and rake...

Yes, but just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean we lump him with Beckham yet, who in fact did rake when he came up.

Daver
08-31-2011, 08:04 PM
Conversely, a bunch of rookies come up and rake...

Define a "bunch", is the similar to the number of bananas in a "bunch"? Because six or seven is not all that impressive a number.

SBSoxFan
08-31-2011, 08:10 PM
I know Reinsdorf has never been big on signing pitchers to long-term deals, but what about position players? I think that's the more pressing issue here. Was it made clear during the Belle signing?

Konerko got 5 years after 2005.

tsoxman
08-31-2011, 08:43 PM
Immediate impact, IMO will be that Mark Buehrle will not be resigned and Danks will test the FA market after next year.

Also, my hope is that once and for all, JR realizies that drafting and development is the way to build a strong core and that once you have that core, then you explore sigining impact free agents.

Cutting corners through trading away your best farm talent for high risk veterans is a recipe for disaster.

amsteel
08-31-2011, 08:59 PM
Peavy wasn't damaged goods other than his ankle being broken. Obviously, that is something.

The Titanic was a nice ship other than some buoyancy issues.

Hitmen77
08-31-2011, 10:03 PM
The consequences of these moves are going to be felt next year where in order to keep a guy like Buerhle we will have to move Quentin (unless Jerry is going to open up the books a bit more). We will also probably lose Danks because of these acquisitions. Kenny likes to think of himself as a gambler and he has come up bust on a lot of his recent moves.

Yep, they owe Dunn/Rios/Peavy $43M next year plus Dunn and Rios have contracts through 2014. Thanks to that and declining attendance, we can likely say goodbye to Mark Buehrle after this year. I would expect Quentin to be traded as a cost-cutting move and Danks might not be around much longer.

As far as how this will affect JR's likelihood to spend on free agents in the future once we rid ourselves of these 3 deadweights, I do expect it to be a factor. For years, didn't JR mention that he was "still paying Julio Cruz" as an argument against big contracts. Also, i think Sox management's stupidity in signing Navarro to a 4 year deal has been used as an excuse to not commit to 4 years for pitchers.

With little talent in our farm system, expect some lean years in the near future for the Sox.

Sargeant79
08-31-2011, 11:17 PM
Honestly... I'd almost prefer that the Sox don't make it a habit of going after these high priced free agents.

History has shown that players who are given those huge deals don't live up to their contracts more often than not. For every one that works out, there are two or three that turn into an albatross. Look at just a couple of examples centered around the Sox's CF search after the 2007 season. While Torii Hunter has been solid for most of the deal he signed with the Angels, you have to think that they wish they weren't going to be paying him $18 million next year. And thank god we didn't sign Fukudome or Roward for the money that we were rumored to be offering.

I'll admit that I was on board with the Dunn signing when it happened, but those type of signings ought to be rare and they should happen only as a means to plug in the final piece to get your team to a World Series. Where the Sox have failed recently is in their own player development.

Brian26
08-31-2011, 11:24 PM
Immediate impact, IMO will be that Mark Buehrle will not be resigned and Danks will test the FA market after next year.

What a pathetic joke if the sacrifice for all of these bad late-decade moves by Kenny is letting Buehrle slip away.

Lip Man 1
09-01-2011, 12:41 AM
If fairness Brian, Mark also is a big part of this equation. For whatever reason or reasons he may want to make a change...be it to the Cardinals or someplace else.

He may feel his career is winding down and he wants another realistic shot at a World Series. The Sox could in theory offer him a lot of money, maybe the same as his last deal and he can still say no.

Lip

24thStFan
09-01-2011, 10:21 AM
My answer is yes.

And not only free agents, but these bad contracts will also influence JR's decision about retaining Ozzie and Kenny. JR will not want to pay Ozzie and Kenny off to leave after this year.

asindc
09-01-2011, 10:35 AM
If fairness Brian, Mark also is a big part of this equation. For whatever reason or reasons he may want to make a change...be it to the Cardinals or someplace else.

He may feel his career is winding down and he wants another realistic shot at a World Series. The Sox could in theory offer him a lot of money, maybe the same as his last deal and he can still say no.

Lip

I dont think StL will want to pay Buehrle market value after opening the vault for Pujols.

soxfan1965
09-01-2011, 02:15 PM
This is worthy of an MBA or DBA/PhD thesis, or at least some objective minds to jump in to help (that aren't blinded by loyalty). The White Sox have big problems, as a competitive entertainment entity and a business. Not just big financial issues, but big behavioral ones too. It seems that the effect of the 2005 championship was/is organizational carelessness, although I credit KW on some of his trades that brought Lillibridge and Flowers to name one. These three bad deals will hamper the Sox, though the good that may come out of it is that the GM can correctly focus instead on building up the farm system (even Ricketts sees this and took action). As a really bad 4th deal I'd include the Manny acquisition last year costing the club $4 million total. About all they can do is ride it out and rely on the kids while building up the farm organization. It's obvious that there will be probably be servere reins put on the GM on FA signings until the KW contracts expire.

NLaloosh
09-01-2011, 03:06 PM
I don't mean in the context of "there's no money left 2011-2014" for big FA signings, rather do you think the organization will be afraid to pull the trigger on big $ signings due to the failures of Dunn/Rios/Peavy?

I realize alot of it will depend on the GM and Kenny's future is unclear, but alot of big money decisions come down to the owner.

I would think that as a GM you can't let past failures cloud future decisions, but it is possible to avoid signing boom/bust guys like Dunn or damaged goods like Peavy. Essentialy, stick to low risk guys.

I could see this happening and would like to hear others thoughts.

There are no consequences. Kenny Williams is still here.

enurb
09-01-2011, 04:23 PM
Is there any chance Dunn simply retires and let's us off the hook? He's had a great run and career - does he really want to spend three/four more years flailing away and getting booed? Granted, you could pay me what we are paying Dunn to do it; but that's not a very high standard.

Gil Meche did it last year and walked away from a guaranteed $12M. Here is a link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/sports/baseball/27meche.html

And, here's his quote: “When I signed my contract, my main goal was to earn it,” Meche said this week by phone from Lafayette, La. “Once I started to realize I wasn’t earning my money, I felt bad. I was making a crazy amount of money for not even pitching. Honestly, I didn’t feel like I deserved it. I didn’t want to have those feelings again.”

C'mon Dunn - pull a Meche.

shes
09-01-2011, 04:50 PM
Is there any chance Dunn simply retires and let's us off the hook? He's had a great run and career - does he really want to spend three/four more years flailing away and getting booed? Granted, you could pay me what we are paying Dunn to do it; but that's not a very high standard.

Gil Meche did it last year and walked away from a guaranteed $12M. Here is a link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/sports/baseball/27meche.html

And, here's his quote: “When I signed my contract, my main goal was to earn it,” Meche said this week by phone from Lafayette, La. “Once I started to realize I wasn’t earning my money, I felt bad. I was making a crazy amount of money for not even pitching. Honestly, I didn’t feel like I deserved it. I didn’t want to have those feelings again.”

C'mon Dunn - pull a Meche.

Gil Meche? More like Gil Mensch! Amirite?

gosox41
09-01-2011, 10:45 PM
Only Dunn was a FA signing.

Long answer: yes.


I don't think afraid is thre fight answer. I think they will be smarter. No one predcited Dunn would be this bad. But a lot of people predicted that Peavy was an injury waiting to happen due to his mechanics and Rios had a rep for being heartless but talented.

Nothing wrong with taking other teams talented problem players. But maybe they shouldn't take them if they make huge money.


Bob

skobabe8
09-01-2011, 11:03 PM
I would hope they would just be afraid to make stupid signings, as these were. Dunn was an aging all or nothing slugger, Peavy was injured when the trade was made, and Rios was well-known as a lollygagger who Toronto was willing to part with for next to nothing. None of those moves screams "genius" to me.

:scratch:

What Adam Dunn have you seen the past few years???

He was as consistent as they came.

HarryChappas
09-01-2011, 11:08 PM
This is worthy of an MBA or DBA/PhD thesis, or at least some objective minds to jump in to help (that aren't blinded by loyalty). The White Sox have big problems, as a competitive entertainment entity and a business. Not just big financial issues, but big behavioral ones too. It seems that the effect of the 2005 championship was/is organizational carelessness, although I credit KW on some of his trades that brought Lillibridge and Flowers to name one. These three bad deals will hamper the Sox, though the good that may come out of it is that the GM can correctly focus instead on building up the farm system (even Ricketts sees this and took action). As a really bad 4th deal I'd include the Manny acquisition last year costing the club $4 million total. About all they can do is ride it out and rely on the kids while building up the farm organization. It's obvious that there will be probably be servere reins put on the GM on FA signings until the KW contracts expire.

Great post. I was booted to the roadhouse for posting this earlier, but we are in a "cublike" situation with these signings. No one saw the Dunn thing coming, Peavy deal worried me, but the Rios deal should get Williams canned!! Why...Why.. this guy is a dog! Also Fire the scouts who wanted this waiver block!??

hawkjt
09-02-2011, 01:49 AM
I saw that Phillies slugger Howard hit his 30th homer tonite,making it 6 straight years of 30+ homers....one more year,and he almost match Dunn's streak of 7 straight years of 38-42 homers....Sox should sign him,and then he will be terrible immediately,right?

No, it would be unimaginable,just like it is unimaginable that Dunn would be this bad. Stuff happens.

MUsoxfan
09-02-2011, 02:17 AM
Is there any chance Dunn simply retires and let's us off the hook? He's had a great run and career - does he really want to spend three/four more years flailing away and getting booed? Granted, you could pay me what we are paying Dunn to do it; but that's not a very high standard.

Gil Meche did it last year and walked away from a guaranteed $12M. Here is a link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/sports/baseball/27meche.html

And, here's his quote: “When I signed my contract, my main goal was to earn it,” Meche said this week by phone from Lafayette, La. “Once I started to realize I wasn’t earning my money, I felt bad. I was making a crazy amount of money for not even pitching. Honestly, I didn’t feel like I deserved it. I didn’t want to have those feelings again.”

C'mon Dunn - pull a Meche.

I don't recall seeing his quotes. This instantly makes him one of my favorite players of all-time.

Oblong
09-02-2011, 08:40 AM
The Dunn situation falls on one person only. Adam Dunn. Nearly every team would have taken him on for a deal within range to what the Sox paid him.

Peavy was a worthy gamble if $$ wasn't too big of a concern. It was a risk that didn't work out. It happens. I'd not want to be a fan of a GM or owner unwilling to take risks. It's how I feel about Dombrowski. He's willing to do that but as a fan you have to accept that when it fails it fails big.

Rios was a disaster at the time and still is. That's one deal that is not justifiable.

TomBradley72
09-03-2011, 09:22 AM
I think there was plenty of data indicating Dunn wasn't worth the money the Sox offered (.199 average vs. LH's in 2010, career avg w/RISP of .237, all of his hand wringing over the DH role)- but to be fair- no one could have seen the epic disaster that was his 2011 season.

But philosophically- I've never been a fan of huge dollars for a "DH only" type player- we already had Konerko, Quentin and Viciedo in our organization- save the big contracts for talent that is tougher to find- like plugging the 3rd base hole since Crede left, or another arm for the bullpen- you can almost always find a decent DH- either from within the organization- or a veteran who needs to transition from being a position player.

Vernam
09-03-2011, 05:48 PM
The Dunn situation falls on one person only. Adam Dunn. Nearly every team would have taken him on for a deal within range to what the Sox paid him.

Peavy was a worthy gamble if $$ wasn't too big of a concern. It was a risk that didn't work out. It happens. I'd not want to be a fan of a GM or owner unwilling to take risks. It's how I feel about Dombrowski. He's willing to do that but as a fan you have to accept that when it fails it fails big.

Rios was a disaster at the time and still is. That's one deal that is not justifiable.I pretty much agree with this. With the exception of the Rios deal, the fan sentiment was pretty giddy when we acquired both Peavy and Dunn. Fortunately we don't get paid to be GMs.

Vernam