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View Full Version : BP Playoff Odds


Fenway
07-23-2011, 10:33 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

White Sox now at a 15.5% chance of post-season

PB does not like Cleveland at all

DSpivack
07-23-2011, 10:49 AM
Were those the same odds that when the Sox clinched in 2005 were still not at 100%?

doublem23
07-23-2011, 11:35 AM
Were those the same odds that when the Sox clinched in 2005 were still not at 100%?

Those were BP's Playoff Odds but since the 2005 season they have updated their formula; you gotta remember that when the Sox clinched the division in 2005, they hadn't mathematically done so yet, they had only clinched in reality because the Red Sox and Yankees played the last series of the season against each other. I'm pretty sure I read that they have updated the way they calculate that stuff to take scenarios like that into account.

WhiteSox5187
07-23-2011, 01:12 PM
Those were BP's Playoff Odds but since the 2005 season they have updated their formula; you gotta remember that when the Sox clinched the division in 2005, they hadn't mathematically done so yet, they had only clinched in reality because the Red Sox and Yankees played the last series of the season against each other. I'm pretty sure I read that they have updated the way they calculate that stuff to take scenarios like that into account.

I think it was that the Sox hadn't mathematically clinched but since they had the better head to head record with Cleveland if both teams tied the Sox would have won the division with the loser taking the wild card, unless the wild card was going to come out of the east in which case it might have been different.

Fenway
07-23-2011, 01:30 PM
I think it was that the Sox hadn't mathematically clinched but since they had the better head to head record with Cleveland if both teams tied the Sox would have won the division with the loser taking the wild card, unless the wild card was going to come out of the east in which case it might have been different.

That last weekend of 2005 was nuts - I remember the Red Sox mascot waving a White Sox flag after they beat the Tribe on Friday.

Then Boston needed to use Schilling in the final game which meant Matt Clement had to pitch Game 1 at Chicago....we know how that worked out.

Brian26
07-23-2011, 01:40 PM
Then Boston needed to use Schilling in the final game which meant Matt Clement had to pitch Game 1 at Chicago....we know how that worked out.

Yeah, Clement got his brains bashed-in instead of Schilling getting his brains bashed-in.

sullythered
07-23-2011, 01:43 PM
Yeah, Clement got his brains bashed-in instead of Schilling getting his brains bashed-in.

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Fenway
07-23-2011, 01:59 PM
Yeah, Clement got his brains bashed-in instead of Schilling getting his brains bashed-in.

The tumblers fell perfectly for the White Sox in 2005....

Most amazing stat - David Wells had never blown a 4 run lead in his career until Game 2 of the ALDS - and Chris Berman cries 'OH NO'.

soltrain21
07-23-2011, 02:02 PM
That last weekend of 2005 was nuts - I remember the Red Sox mascot waving a White Sox flag after they beat the Tribe on Friday.

Then Boston needed to use Schilling in the final game which meant Matt Clement had to pitch Game 1 at Chicago....we know how that worked out.

You guys still would have got pounded.

balke
07-23-2011, 02:04 PM
The tumblers fell perfectly for the White Sox in 2005....

Most amazing stat - David Wells had never blown a 4 run lead in his career until Game 2 of the ALDS - and Chris Berman cries 'OH NO'.

I always felt if they had El Duque not been so clutch in game 3 - Boston would've came back in that series to possibly win it. But the fact remains to this day the Sox just walked all over everyone that year. The results are that of extreme dominance.

fram40
07-23-2011, 02:16 PM
I think it was that the Sox hadn't mathematically clinched but since they had the better head to head record with Cleveland if both teams tied the Sox would have won the division with the loser taking the wild card, unless the wild card was going to come out of the east in which case it might have been different.

Had Cleveland swept the Sox, the wild card could not have come out of the East. Clev/Sox would have tied for the division lead with 96 wins. With the Yankees/BoSox going head-to-head the last three games, only one of those two teams would have won as many as 96 games. In this scenario, both teams from the Central would have made the playoffs and there is no one game playoff to decide the division winner. The division tie is broken by head-to-head season record and the loser becomes the wild card. (Of course, this all became moot when the Sox swept Cleveland - allowing both NYY and BoSox to win playoff spots.)

No matter what happened that last weekend (and whatever the odds given by BP), the Sox clinched the division after beating Detroit in the Thursday afternoon game.

Foulke You
07-23-2011, 03:43 PM
I always felt if they had El Duque not been so clutch in game 3 - Boston would've came back in that series to possibly win it. But the fact remains to this day the Sox just walked all over everyone that year. The results are that of extreme dominance.
As clutch as that El Duque inning was, I still think our pitching was so dominating that year that I just didn't see any way Boston could have beat us 3 straight.

doublem23
07-24-2011, 03:26 AM
Had Cleveland swept the Sox, the wild card could not have come out of the East. Clev/Sox would have tied for the division lead with 96 wins. With the Yankees/BoSox going head-to-head the last three games, only one of those two teams would have won as many as 96 games. In this scenario, both teams from the Central would have made the playoffs and there is no one game playoff to decide the division winner. The division tie is broken by head-to-head season record and the loser becomes the wild card. (Of course, this all became moot when the Sox swept Cleveland - allowing both NYY and BoSox to win playoff spots.)

No matter what happened that last weekend (and whatever the odds given by BP), the Sox clinched the division after beating Detroit in the Thursday afternoon game.

Yes, that is all true, my point was that the reason the Sox showed up as like a 99.5% playoff probable team the day after they had clinched in Detroit was that at that time, IIRC, BP was running a very early version of it's win/loss predictor and I don't believe it took the quirky schedule into account. I believe now, 6 years later, they have rectified that error.