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View Full Version : Can the Sox contend in '12 with an overhaul and cut in payroll?


captain54
05-24-2011, 06:50 PM
the Sox falling out of it in 11' (if not already out of it) has already been talked about as a harbringer of some major changes for 12'

is this necessarily a bad thing? we see what Cleveland has done with a payroll 2/3 that of the Sox.. I personally think that in order to generate any sort of season ticket buzz for 12', the Sox must really revamp from top to bottom...

thoughts?

JermaineDye05
05-24-2011, 06:55 PM
the Sox falling out of it in 11' (if not already out of it) has already been talked about as a harbringer of some major changes for 12'

is this necessarily a bad thing? we see what Cleveland has done with a payroll 2/3 that of the Sox.. I personally think that in order to generate any sort of season ticket buzz for 12', the Sox must really revamp from top to bottom...

thoughts?

Terrible example.

The Indians are the polar opposite of the Sox as they have a ton of players that are performing well over their career averages. I consider the Indians more lucky than good. There's maybe four or five guys on the Indians that I would actually consider good.

Sizemore
A. Cabrera
Choo
Santana
Carmona

You could argue Orlando, but I consider him to be on the decline right now.

To answer your question: No

The Sox don't have the talent yet. Even with trades, they'd have to wait a couple years before they could be in contention again.

SI1020
05-24-2011, 07:05 PM
KW did a much better job when he was on a stricter budget.

Lip Man 1
05-24-2011, 07:10 PM
Interesting topic which I think is best served as the off season starts because if the Sox continue to fall, you don't know who exactly will be on the roster come October 1st.

Kenny would almost surely move some guys unless JR decides that in order to placate the fan base and try to minimize the financial damage he tells him to stay intact and try to have a winning season.

I personally think it's almost an impossibility that JR will approve this kind of financial payroll again. The problem is though that the Sox have very little in the minor leagues that could step up at the big league level next year. Kenny may get some decent / good prospects for moving current players but kids usually don't fare well to start in the bigs.

I suspect that "going young" will result in a dramatic drop in attendance which could lessen the pressure on the kids (in essence because few will give a damn...) but it's hard to "win" (even a winning record) with different prospects from different organizations all coming together at the same time.

We'll see what happens but I think the Sox are going to head into a bad period for the next few years at least, starting in 2012.

The joker in any kind of discussion about the future however is that Ozzie, Kenny, JR...any or all might not be around. If so, you don't know what the operating philosophy is going to be.

If I had to guess I'd say Ozzie would leave if the Sox went young. He's here to win, not teach as he's said time and time again.

Lip

voodoochile
05-24-2011, 07:12 PM
Oh yeah...

The Sox have lost one in a row...

I almost forgot...

khan
05-24-2011, 07:14 PM
I think it is too early to say. A lot can happen between now and then.

That said, I think we have to root like crazy for Edwin Jackson to pitch lights-out, so that he can be traded for more valuable pieces that aren't ridiculously priced. Or, that Edwin Jackson pitches well enough to attain/retain "A" level FA status. [Like him or not, he won't be here in 2012.]

I think we have to root like crazy for Viciedo to continue to figure out how to play the OF, and how to draw walks. [Like him or not, he WILL be here in 2012.]

I think we have to root like crazy for the SOX braintrust to send Sale down, so that he can be rebuilt, both mentally and physically. [I think he will be here in 2012.]

There are a few other pieces that have to fall into place, but I think it is entirely too early to consider where this organization will be in 2012.

Over By There
05-24-2011, 07:23 PM
I think it is too early to say. A lot can happen between now and then.

That said, I think we have to root like crazy for Edwin Jackson to pitch lights-out, so that he can be traded for more valuable pieces that aren't ridiculously priced. Or, that Edwin Jackson pitches well enough to attain/retain "A" level FA status. [Like him or not, he won't be here in 2012.]

I think we have to root like crazy for Viciedo to continue to figure out how to play the OF, and how to draw walks. [Like him or not, he WILL be here in 2012.]

I think we have to root like crazy for the SOX braintrust to send Sale down, so that he can be rebuilt, both mentally and physically. [I think he will be here in 2012.]

There are a few other pieces that have to fall into place, but I think it is entirely too early to consider where this organization will be in 2012.

I'm going to root like crazy for the Sox to win a bunch of games this year. :shrug:

captain54
05-24-2011, 07:23 PM
Terrible example.

The Indians are the polar opposite of the Sox as they have a ton of players that are performing well over their career averages. I consider the Indians more lucky than good. There's maybe four or five guys on the Indians that I would actually consider good.

.

the Indians are 12 games ahead of the Sox with their two best hitters on the DL

wanna re-think your post?

captain54
05-24-2011, 07:25 PM
Oh yeah...

The Sox have lost one in a row...

I almost forgot...

You did forget.... that they are 12 games back in the loss column of Cleveland with two teams ahead of them and about 7 teams in front of them for the Wild Card

asindc
05-24-2011, 07:27 PM
Terrible example.

The Indians are the polar opposite of the Sox as they have a ton of players that are performing well over their career averages. I consider the Indians more lucky than good. There's maybe four or five guys on the Indians that I would actually consider good.

Sizemore
A. Cabrera
Choo
Santana
Carmona

You could argue Orlando, but I consider him to be on the decline right now.

To answer your question: No

The Sox don't have the talent yet. Even with trades, they'd have to wait a couple years before they could be in contention again.

I would add Masterson to that list, as I think he has turned the corner. Your general point is well taken, though.

soltrain21
05-24-2011, 07:29 PM
Terrible example.

The Indians are the polar opposite of the Sox as they have a ton of players that are performing well over their career averages. I consider the Indians more lucky than good. There's maybe four or five guys on the Indians that I would actually consider good.

Sizemore
A. Cabrera
Choo
Santana
Carmona

You could argue Orlando, but I consider him to be on the decline right now.

To answer your question: No

The Sox don't have the talent yet. Even with trades, they'd have to wait a couple years before they could be in contention again.

Go look at the date of births for their roster. It's a young squad. How can you say they are all having career years?

BringHomeDaBacon
05-24-2011, 07:37 PM
Terrible example.

The Indians are the polar opposite of the Sox as they have a ton of players that are performing well over their career averages. I consider the Indians more lucky than good. There's maybe four or five guys on the Indians that I would actually consider good.

Sizemore
A. Cabrera
Choo
Santana
Carmona

You could argue Orlando, but I consider him to be on the decline right now.

To answer your question: No

The Sox don't have the talent yet. Even with trades, they'd have to wait a couple years before they could be in contention again.

They're the opposite of the Sox because most the Indians players have not had their best years yet (OC and Pronk being the exceptions). As a result, nobody knows how good they are. Since you failed to include the likes of Brantley, Masterson, and Perez on your list it seems like you have less of an idea than most.

SoxSpeed22
05-24-2011, 07:39 PM
The problem I see with it is that there are so many big salaries that we have that might be untradeable in 2012. There will be money coming off of the books this year, but I have a hard time seeing them put that back into the team.
We might be in for a lousy season in 2012, but no need to worry about that now.

WhiteSox5187
05-24-2011, 07:45 PM
It's too early to start thinking about 2012. We have had some great starting pitching of late and are winning series. There is still enough time to turn this around, especially if we start hitting.

JermaineDye05
05-24-2011, 07:57 PM
the Indians are 12 games ahead of the Sox with their two best hitters on the DL

wanna re-think your post?

No.

They're the opposite of the Sox because most the Indians players have not had their best years yet (OC and Pronk being the exceptions). As a result, nobody knows how good they are. Since you failed to include the likes of Brantley, Masterson, and Perez on your list it seems like you have less of an idea than most.

I didn't include them because I don't see them being as good as they are. Brantley could be a decent player, but I don't see him as a top tier OF like he's shown so far. I've never liked Masterson as I've viewed him as a two pitch pitcher with poor control. Perez... I assume you mean Chris Perez. His control has always seemed suspect for a closer. Right now he's walking a guy for every hitter he strikes out which is going to catch up to him eventually.

Tomlin could be pretty good for the Indians, but considering he's a rookie, I expect him to hit a wall at some point.

Frater Perdurabo
05-24-2011, 08:05 PM
Several big contracts expire at the end of this season, including Buehrle, Jackson and Pierre, so that will result in some payroll reduction. Not sure if that's enough to "balance" whatever JR imposes as the Sox budget.

With shrewd moves it's possible to contend even with a smaller payroll, but I'm not sure what kind of young, cheap, good talent KW could get in return for the high-priced talent under contract for 2012.

voodoochile
05-24-2011, 08:10 PM
You did forget.... that they are 12 games back in the loss column of Cleveland with two teams ahead of them and about 7 teams in front of them for the Wild Card

In the last week of May with 110+ games to play and the team coming off it's hottest stretch of the season having won every series since 5/6 with the exception of one two game split. In addition they are 4-1 against the toons with 13 left to play.

To say it's WAY too early to be discussing next year would be the understatement of the year. Heck even Lip thinks you are too early (no offense, Lip)

Brian26
05-24-2011, 08:58 PM
is this necessarily a bad thing? we see what Cleveland has done with a payroll 2/3 that of the Sox.. I personally think that in order to generate any sort of season ticket buzz for 12', the Sox must really revamp from top to bottom...

thoughts?

What type of going-young revamp do you honestly think is going to re-energize the apathetic Sox fan-base when a season ticket buzz was almost non-existant this past offseason after the signings of Dunn, AJ and Konerko?

The economy hasn't helped the situation, but the bottom line is that Sox fans generally don't come out to the ballpark for the first 2.5 months of the season, and then, based on the success of the team on the field, fans decide if they're going to spend money.

Brian26
05-24-2011, 09:00 PM
In the last week of May with 110+ games to play and the team coming off it's hottest stretch of the season having won every series since 5/6 with the exception of one two game split. In addition they are 4-1 against the toons with 13 left to play.

To say it's WAY too early to be discussing next year would be the understatement of the year. Heck even Lip thinks you are too early (no offense, Lip)

Correct. I'm not arguiing that the Sox are going to win the division or even contend, but it's much too early to crown the Indians as the blueprint for how an organization is supposed to be run. Let's wait and see if they collapse like the 2003 Royals first. In the meantime, they've alienated their fanbase by trading away two Cy Young Award Winners within the span of one year. They have a long way to go.

A. Cavatica
05-24-2011, 09:58 PM
No, but they can't contend if they try to keep going with what they have, either. Rebuilding will be a lot cheaper.

PalehosePlanet
05-24-2011, 10:02 PM
This reminds me of the 2007 season, when 2/3 of WSI were convinced that we would lose 90+ again in 2008. Some even thought we wouldn't see a .500 team on the southside until 2012.

I agree with Voodoo, it's way too early to discuss dismantling the team or to give up on this season, but even if we have a disappointing/bad year we'd only be a couple of good moves away from winning the division next year.

Daver
05-24-2011, 10:15 PM
No, but they can't contend if they try to keep going with what they have, either. Rebuilding will be a lot cheaper.

Rebuild with what?


The small return they will get for the tradeable contracts?

gogosox675
05-24-2011, 11:38 PM
I think the Sox have a great chance to contend in the season we're currently watching. I'll worry about 2012 when it gets here.

johnnyg83
05-25-2011, 12:56 AM
Dunn/Rios are the biggest problems to me. Kenny falls in love with players and does everything he can to get them, maybe even putting blinders on. And yes, I liked the Dunn signing at the time.

Who else is a bad contract? Ohman? Teahan? To me, Teahan's contract is bad for what he does, but it's not like Dunn. Not even close. There's one more year of what 5 million? Bad decision. But not that big of a deal.

PeteWard
05-25-2011, 03:42 AM
You did forget.... that they are 12 games back in the loss column of Cleveland with two teams ahead of them and about 7 teams in front of them for the Wild Card

It's May! :angry:

They now have to make up a little more than 1/2 game per week.

As for the wild card, the teams are so tightly bunched that it could be only two teams ahead of them in a week.

sox1970
05-25-2011, 09:55 AM
It's May! :angry:

They now have to make up a little more than 1/2 game per week.

As for the wild card, the teams are so tightly bunched that it could be only two teams ahead of them in a week.

That's one way of looking at it.

Or the Sox have 13 games left with the Indians. If the Sox go 8-5, that cuts the lead to 6 with 99 other games on the schedule. Plenty of time.

khan
05-25-2011, 10:29 AM
I'm going to root like crazy for the Sox to win a bunch of games this year. :shrug:

No doubt. But, for the purposes of this thread, those are some of the things to root for, with respect to 2012.


I will state, however, that KW does his best work when he's not reeking of desperation. When he's desperate, we get stupid acquisitions like Jackson, Swisher, Griffey, and the like. When he can take a better assessment of the situation, he's brought in Danks, for example.

In any case, it remains too early to speak of 2012, even though chances would appear to be remote that a 2011 postseason berth is in the works.

Tragg
05-25-2011, 11:47 AM
Several big contracts expire at the end of this season, including Buehrle, Jackson and Pierre, so that will result in some payroll reduction. Not sure if that's enough to "balance" whatever JR imposes as the Sox budget.

With shrewd moves it's possible to contend even with a smaller payroll, but I'm not sure what kind of young, cheap, good talent KW could get in return for the high-priced talent under contract for 2012.

We could still be pretty good without those 3 players.
But it will require some shrewd moves by Williams; unfortunately, most of his moves lately haven't been too shrewd.

russ99
05-25-2011, 12:03 PM
Assuming our free agents leave, that ends up with:

C - A.J
1B - Konerko
2B - Beckham
SS - Ramirez
3B - Morel
LF - Danks/Viciedo
CF - Rios
RF - Quentin
DH - Dunn

C - Flowers
IF - Lillibridge
IF - Escobar
OF - Teahen
OF - Milledge

SP - Peavy
SP - Danks
SP - Floyd
SP - Sale
SP - Humber

CP - Santos
SU - Thornton
SU - Crane
MR - Infante
MR - Bruney
LOOGY - Ohman

Total payroll for contracted players in 2012 is $97M, with another 4-5 for Danks and Quentin's last Arb years and another million or two for minimum salary player raises. There's also a chance Beckham could hit his first Arb this offseason.

Even if we have to cut payroll and deal a bat (likely Quentin) we should be able to contend.

The big issue is who's going to leadoff with Pierre gone and Mitchell not ready. If Ozzie is still here, that may be the focus of the offseason.

Moses_Scurry
05-25-2011, 12:21 PM
Assuming our free agents leave, that ends up with:

C - A.J
1B - Konerko
2B - Beckham
SS - Ramirez
3B - Morel
LF - Danks/Viciedo
CF - Rios
RF - Quentin
DH - Dunn

C - Flowers
IF - Lillibridge
IF - Escobar
OF - Teahen
OF - Milledge

SP - Peavy
SP - Danks
SP - Floyd
SP - Sale
SP - Humber

CP - Santos
SU - Thornton
SU - Crane
MR - Infante
MR - Bruney
LOOGY - Ohman

Total payroll for contracted players in 2012 is $97M, with another 4-5 for Danks and Quentin's last Arb years and another million or two for minimum salary player raises. There's also a chance Beckham could hit his first Arb this offseason.

Even if we have to cut payroll and deal a bat (likely Quentin) we should be able to contend.

The big issue is who's going to leadoff with Pierre gone and Mitchell not ready. If Ozzie is still here, that may be the focus of the offseason.

This will make me nervous. I think they'll re-sign one of Buehrle or Jackson. If they don't, they will sign a cheap veteran as an insurance policy.

miker
05-25-2011, 12:49 PM
I'd have to check the records to verify, but really, how many teams really have contended after an "overhaul?"

russ99
05-25-2011, 01:07 PM
This will make me nervous. I think they'll re-sign one of Buehrle or Jackson. If they don't, they will sign a cheap veteran as an insurance policy.

I'd love to see them re-sign Buehrle at a lower base year with incentives, but I'd doubt Mark would take a cut in pay to stay here for his last contract.

Hitmen77
05-25-2011, 05:31 PM
Interesting topic which I think is best served as the off season starts because if the Sox continue to fall, you don't know who exactly will be on the roster come October 1st.

Kenny would almost surely move some guys unless JR decides that in order to placate the fan base and try to minimize the financial damage he tells him to stay intact and try to have a winning season.

I personally think it's almost an impossibility that JR will approve this kind of financial payroll again. The problem is though that the Sox have very little in the minor leagues that could step up at the big league level next year. Kenny may get some decent / good prospects for moving current players but kids usually don't fare well to start in the bigs.

I suspect that "going young" will result in a dramatic drop in attendance which could lessen the pressure on the kids (in essence because few will give a damn...) but it's hard to "win" (even a winning record) with different prospects from different organizations all coming together at the same time.

We'll see what happens but I think the Sox are going to head into a bad period for the next few years at least, starting in 2012.

The joker in any kind of discussion about the future however is that Ozzie, Kenny, JR...any or all might not be around. If so, you don't know what the operating philosophy is going to be.

If I had to guess I'd say Ozzie would leave if the Sox went young. He's here to win, not teach as he's said time and time again.

Lip

Good points.

If the Sox don't rebound dramatically this year, attendance will going down the toilet and I fully expect them to cut payroll next year as a result.

Can they contend with an overhaul/cut payroll? Well, anything is possible. But since the minor league system is so sadly devoid of talent and the Sox are still on the hook for a couple of big and (except for Konerko) BAD contracts next year (Rios, Peavy, Konerko, Dunn, AJ...and don't forget $5.5M for Teahen:rolleyes:), Kenny Williams will really be hard pressed to cobble together a decent team next year.

....and forget any comparison to this year's Indians. The big difference is that the Indians continue to develop or acquire young talent that succeeds at the major league level.

WhiteSox5187
05-25-2011, 06:43 PM
I'd love to see them re-sign Buehrle at a lower base year with incentives, but I'd doubt Mark would take a cut in pay to stay here for his last contract.

That's how I feel about Buerhle too. I'd love to have him back, but at a much smaller contract.

Frater Perdurabo
05-25-2011, 09:07 PM
I'd have to check the records to verify, but really, how many teams really have contended after an "overhaul?"

We can argue semantics, but I'd say KW significantly overhauled the roster during that calendar year between Opening Day 2004 and Opening Day 2005.

miker
05-25-2011, 10:00 PM
We can argue semantics, but I'd say KW significantly overhauled the roster during that calendar year between Opening Day 2004 and Opening Day 2005.

No, that's a real good example. And it might be the "example that proves the rule".

Frater Perdurabo
05-25-2011, 10:05 PM
No, that's a real good example. And it might be the "example that proves the rule".

"Exception that proves the rule" is probably a fair characterization, since it is quite infrequent for a team overhalued as much as the 2004-2005 White Sox were, to go on and win a World Series.

SI1020
05-26-2011, 08:35 AM
They don't have any choice. The Sox are probably going to be lousy for a few years no matter what they do. The only thing they are "all in" is trouble.

russ99
05-27-2011, 10:02 AM
Good points.

If the Sox don't rebound dramatically this year, attendance will going down the toilet and I fully expect them to cut payroll next year as a result.

Can they contend with an overhaul/cut payroll? Well, anything is possible. But since the minor league system is so sadly devoid of talent and the Sox are still on the hook for a couple of big and (except for Konerko) BAD contracts next year (Rios, Peavy, Konerko, Dunn, AJ...and don't forget $5.5M for Teahen:rolleyes:), Kenny Williams will really be hard pressed to cobble together a decent team next year.

....and forget any comparison to this year's Indians. The big difference is that the Indians continue to develop or acquire young talent that succeeds at the major league level.

I can see Jerry cutting payroll to around 100 million next year. The reason I believe he won't cut lower is due to the large contracts still on the books, and an even bigger reason:

If at some point in the next few years Jerry decides to get out and retire, he won't want the franchise value which has risen so high in the last few years to fall back with the club losing 90-100 games and average gate back to below 10,000 over a few seasons.

We may deal some salary and go a bit younger for 2012, but I just don't see Jerry cutting back to bare bones and rebuilding.

soxfanreggie
05-30-2011, 11:18 AM
Several big contracts expire at the end of this season, including Buehrle, Jackson and Pierre, so that will result in some payroll reduction. Not sure if that's enough to "balance" whatever JR imposes as the Sox budget.

With shrewd moves it's possible to contend even with a smaller payroll, but I'm not sure what kind of young, cheap, good talent KW could get in return for the high-priced talent under contract for 2012.

With Pierre's deal, you have to remember that we're only paying him $5 million of his 2011 salary. The key will be if we can get Danks to agree to some sort of deal using the money that we're paying him this year ($6 million) and part of what is coming off the books from Jackson ($8.5 million).

If we can keep Danks, losing MB wouldn't hurt as much. If Danks doesn't come back, we probably have to look at what sort of deal MB would sign. If it's too expensive, we look at Humber for a full season and sign someone else/bringing someone else up. I would like for us to make a good offer to MB though, as he's pitching pretty good this year.

Hopefully they can get TCQ to re-sign, but I'm not sure how much money it's going to take. He's probably going to be looking for a good-sized deal, and we will need to go out and get someone to replace Pierre unless he agrees to come back at a ridiculously cheap price just to keep playing and we decide that it's worth the gamble. With the importance of the leadoff position, it will definitely hurt our competitiveness to not address this position. Barring someone coming up from within to fill this spot or getting a cheap vet to have a career hear, we probably won't be able to ignore this position and still be successful.

Finally, a healthy Peavy could lead us to great things. If he pitches at his potential, you're talking someone who can come in and get you 18-20 wins.

delben91
05-30-2011, 11:30 AM
Unless they get the motherload of MLB-ready prospects for anyone they deal, I can't see this team even contending in '15 with the current state of the minors, let alone '12.

TomBradley72
05-30-2011, 12:49 PM
I think KW is in a similar position as Hendry and the Cubs- weighted down with expensive,multi year contracts that no one will want- Dunn, Rios, Peavy, Teahen, AJ, Ohmann- that's about $57M in payroll that will be almost impossible to move.

Looking at AAA and AA- other than Viciedo- not alot to get excited about.

Combined with a 3rd <.500 season in the past 5 years and very low attendance (if they don't dramatically turn around soon)- this could get pretty ugly for a few years.