PDA

View Full Version : When is it not "early" anymore in the season?


chisoxfanatic
04-28-2011, 11:28 PM
I often read both here and other places that it's "too early to panic" when the Sox get off to slow starts. People have their own definition of when it is done being "early" in the season, so I was curious as to when you personally see the "early" part of the season ending?

Lundind1
04-28-2011, 11:31 PM
If your still struggling like this at the 10th of May, it might be a long season. I will say though, that you really can't count someone really out of it till the All-Star Game.

WhiteSox5187
04-28-2011, 11:31 PM
This is probably a family thing that I have taken from my father, but he always said (and I agreed) that by Memorial Day you usually have a pretty good idea of who the pretenders and the contenders are.

DSpivack
04-28-2011, 11:50 PM
Reminds me of a Yogi Berra line, "It gets late early out there."





*He was talking about the shadows at Yankee Stadium.

doublem23
04-28-2011, 11:58 PM
Depends on how you're doing relative to your division.

Just gotta make the playoffs.

soltrain21
04-28-2011, 11:59 PM
If your still struggling like this at the 10th of May, it might be a long season. I will say though, that you really can't count someone really out of it till the All-Star Game.

Where the heck have you been?!

LoveYourSuit
04-29-2011, 12:14 AM
When you see the same pattern from previous seasons that have ended in failure, it's not too early.

DumpJerry
04-29-2011, 12:43 AM
It's not early now. After the first two games I started having flashbacks to 2007. It started with the triple play.

The team is stuck in a tar pit. The hitters seem to view the fielders as targets in an arcade because they keep hitting the ball right at them.:angry:

Hitmen77
04-29-2011, 01:04 AM
When you see the same pattern from previous seasons that have ended in failure, it's not too early.

Bingo. I've seen this rerun before.

Soxfest
04-29-2011, 01:53 AM
May 15th latest to me on the early excuse.

Gavin
04-29-2011, 01:59 AM
Don't be patetic

captain54
04-29-2011, 02:29 AM
When you see the same pattern from previous seasons that have ended in failure, it's not too early.

I wouldn't say its the same pattern from previous seasons...I would say its worse....this team is in total disarray, the likes of which I haven't seen in a while..

The offensive funks, the defensive lapses, the shaky bullpen, etc.. and
Ozzie has no answers ... none.

You could say the Sox are 7 games back and its still April... teams have made up 7 games in a few weeks....You might also be looking at a scenario where the Sox are 15 games out by Memorial Day... and there's no guarantees at this point that that won't happen

AnkleSox
04-29-2011, 03:04 AM
If the team shows signs of life in their losses its still early.

If the wins still feel like losses then it's not early.

I say if the sox have a losing record on this homestand it's time to worry. A split in New York against one of the best teams in the league is okay. However, they scored 5 runs in their two wins and they did it in a painful way. All four games had plenty of missed opportunities and it's already starting to feel the same as the past four seasons.

This team has the most talent they've had in years (I'd say even more than 2005), but that doesn't always equate to winning.

kufram
04-29-2011, 04:53 AM
To me, it is not early when it is not April anymore.

I think Alex is hurting, I think Dunn is recovering, I think Juan is sleeping, I think Beckham is thinking, I think Morel is a rookie, I think Alexei is a little cold, I think AJ is AJ... meanwhile PK and TCQ are hitting. The defense is sloppy but improved. The starting pitching is getting there. The bullpen is worried that the pitching won't get there.

There are a number of factors that need to get into their expected place. Now would be a good time.

I was right though, the offense did wake up in game 4 in NY..... unfortunately, it wasn't ours.

Moses_Scurry
04-29-2011, 06:47 AM
If they were 7 games behind Minnesota or Detroit, I would say that it is definitely not too early and that they are in trouble. However, I don't see Cleveland staying where they are. The Sox are tied with Minnesota and only 2.5 games behind Detroit. In other words, all three are off to terrible starts. The division will be won by whoever pulls their heads out of their asses first and most. I still think it will be the Sox.

ChiSoxGirl
04-29-2011, 08:43 AM
It's not early now. After the first two games I started having flashbacks to 2007. It started with the triple play.

The team is stuck in a tar pit. The hitters seem to view the fielders as targets in an arcade because they keep hitting the ball right at them.:angry:

This season has 2007 written all over it, except with a hell of a lot more talent and supposed promise.

I've said to a couple people already that I feel like such a fool for buying in to the organization's "All In" campaign this year. How could I have thought the team was getting off to a good start back when they were 7-4? How and why did I believe they were going to be so good?!?! :(:

Bingo. I've seen this rerun before.

We all have. This movie has been played annually since 2007 and prior to the World Series year, and we all know how it ends, too - in third place with around 84-87 wins.

LoveYourSuit
04-29-2011, 08:49 AM
If they were 7 games behind Minnesota or Detroit, I would say that it is definitely not too early and that they are in trouble. However, I don't see Cleveland staying where they are. The Sox are tied with Minnesota and only 2.5 games behind Detroit. In other words, all three are off to terrible starts. The division will be won by whoever pulls their heads out of their asses first and most. I still think it will be the Sox.

I am getting tired of the "Cleveland isn't good enough" excuse. As if they have no right to compete and win this division. Its baseball, we have seen plenty of surprises in the past.

Right now, Cleveland is the team to beat based on standings.

doublem23
04-29-2011, 09:06 AM
I am getting tired of the "Cleveland isn't good enough" excuse. As if they have no right to compete and win this division. Its baseball, we have seen plenty of surprises in the past.

Right now, Cleveland is the team to beat based on standings.

Congratulations, you can join the other 11 Indian fans as the only people who think they can sustain this for 162 games.

Their record is completely reliant on the fact that they've beaten up some bad teams and caught other teams at the right time. The Tribe aren't going to win the Central, it's either going to be the Sox, Tigers, or Twins. As someone with a bit more astuteness pointed out, it's basically going to be whichever team wakes up first.

pythons007
04-29-2011, 09:15 AM
Tomorrow and repeat.

Jerko
04-29-2011, 09:46 AM
Sox only hope is that they wake the **** up. Minnesota is awful and I'm sick of everyone being afraid of them. Detroit isn't that great either; I'm already sick of hearing how this was a tough road trip because we played friggin Detroit. One good winning streak and the Sox are right back in it. Question is, do they have it in them? When they play well, there's usually a stupid managerial move to screw things up, and when Ozzie does handle the pitching staff well, nobody remembers how to hit or run the bases. Only time will tell.

A. Cavatica
04-29-2011, 09:51 AM
40 games.

Procol Harum
04-29-2011, 10:13 AM
When you see the same pattern from previous seasons that have ended in failure, it's not too early.

Yep, what you said--it's baseball's version of Ground Hog Day.

LITTLE NELL
04-29-2011, 10:31 AM
1961, 1983 and 2010 are the years I remember most for Sox teams turning dismals starts around. The 61 team went 19-1 after a record of 19-33 on June 11 and finished 86-76.
The 83 team was 16-24 on may 26 and played lights out the rest of the way to finish 99-63 and won the West by 20 games.
We all remember last year but if these players that we have now think that they are just going to turn it on like a light switch, well it just doesn't happen that way.

russ99
04-29-2011, 10:33 AM
Not going to get all head up about the last 2 weeks, a split in Yankee stadium isn't bad.

That said, we need to see improvement in this homestand against Baltimore (supposedly lesser competition) and we really need to make a statement against the Twins. Minnesota wins those two games here, and that could turn their season around.

Moses_Scurry
04-29-2011, 11:21 AM
I am getting tired of the "Cleveland isn't good enough" excuse. As if they have no right to compete and win this division. Its baseball, we have seen plenty of surprises in the past.

Right now, Cleveland is the team to beat based on standings.

Sure anything's possible. Nobody outside of us White Sox fans probably thought the 2000 team would sustain it for 162 games, but they did. For Cleveland to get equal respect in this thread as Detroit and Minnesota, they have to do it for more than 25 games in my opinion. If they can sustain it, then next year I'll include them in the group when the Sox have a crappy start (and recent history says that they will have a crappy start).

Lip Man 1
04-29-2011, 12:04 PM
Seattle seemed to have no trouble beating Detroit these past few days. I don't think they're that good except when they play the Sox.

The Sox have been dominating Detroit for most of the past decade, starting last August that seemed to turn around for some reason.

Lip

TDog
04-29-2011, 01:00 PM
It depends on the level of inherent pessimism and prejudices against your team that most White Sox fans carry.

If the White Sox were the 16-6 team right now, it would be early. If the White Sox were playing .700 baseball at the All-Star break, it would be early. If the White Sox are slumping in April, it seems to be over.

Lip Man 1
04-29-2011, 01:12 PM
Considering the Sox opened the season by "slumping" in April in 2007, 2009 and 2010 it very well might be. We'll see.

The hung on by the hair of their chinny chin chin after a poor start in 2008 to win the 163rd game of the season and get to the postseason.

Basically the track record as history shows the past four years doesn't endear you to thinking a lot of good things ultimately are going to be taking place in October.

Or as a wise baseball guy once said, "you can't win a pennant in April but you can damn sure lose one..."

Lip

doublem23
04-29-2011, 01:29 PM
FWIW, the Sox had a winning record in April 2007

palehozenychicty
04-29-2011, 01:56 PM
I'm going to give until the All-Star Break. Nobody is running away in this division. If the pen solidifies, it'll have a ripple effect.

Dan H
04-29-2011, 02:06 PM
It's too early to give up, not too early to worry.

I'm sure the hitting will turn around; it can't be this bad. But I don't see a 25-5 run in this team. The White Sox need to get it going soon. Yet I want to see how the team performs when it does begin to hit some. Teams always look dead when they're not hitting. It is just frustrating because the Twins and Tigers are playing poorly, and the Sox are not taking advantage of it.

Fenway
04-29-2011, 02:16 PM
Funny how the White Sox record mirrors home and away games - 10 home 16 away.

Assuming Cleveland comes back to earth soon the White Sox situation isn't horrible - 2.5 behind the Tigers and Royals and even with the Twins ( who I think have bigger problems than the White Sox right now )

Memorial Day is the first true checkpoint. MLB is not a sprint - it is a marathon.

asindc
04-29-2011, 02:20 PM
Funny how the White Sox record mirrors home and away games - 10 home 16 away.

Assuming Cleveland comes back to earth soon the White Sox situation isn't horrible - 2.5 behind the Tigers and Royals and even with the Twins ( who I think have bigger problems than the White Sox right now )

Memorial Day is the first true checkpoint. MLB is not a sprint - it is a marathon.

Well put.

PKalltheway
04-29-2011, 02:30 PM
Funny how the White Sox record mirrors home and away games - 10 home 16 away.

Assuming Cleveland comes back to earth soon the White Sox situation isn't horrible - 2.5 behind the Tigers and Royals and even with the Twins ( who I think have bigger problems than the White Sox right now )

Memorial Day is the first true checkpoint. MLB is not a sprint - it is a marathon.
Definitely agree with you there. Although their play as of late worries me a bit, I'm confident they can turn this around. Heck, the best I was hoping for in their four-game series against the Yankees was a split anyway.

Red Barchetta
04-29-2011, 02:36 PM
This is probably a family thing that I have taken from my father, but he always said (and I agreed) that by Memorial Day you usually have a pretty good idea of who the pretenders and the contenders are.

That's pretty much my timeline as well. However, with the additional Wild Card playoff spots, I feel if your at .500 at the All-Star break, you still have a chance, however you need to have a strong second half.

Fenway
04-29-2011, 02:40 PM
Definitely agree with you there. Although their play as of late worries me a bit, I'm confident they can turn this around. Heck, the best I was hoping for in their four-game series against the Yankees was a split anyway.

Look how quickly Tampa Bay turned things around...seems like once Manny quit :scratch:

BigKlu59
04-29-2011, 02:46 PM
:cool: Like Nellie says.... All Star game is usually the tipping point. Hang around the pack around 3 or 4 games behind and One weekend 4 behind can turn into the next weekend being even or oicking up a game or two. This division is anyones for the taking....

BK59

rcescato
04-29-2011, 02:57 PM
I often read both here and other places that it's "too early to panic" when the Sox get off to slow starts. People have their own definition of when it is done being "early" in the season, so I was curious as to when you personally see the "early" part of the season ending?


in my opinion spring training. they are playing exactly like they did in spring. remember the worst record of the spring. Bad habits bad habits

doublem23
04-29-2011, 02:58 PM
in my opinion spring training. they are playing exactly like they did in spring. remember the worst record of the spring. Bad habits bad habits

Just like how the Rangers had one of the worst Spring records last year... They didn't do anything.

kittle42
04-29-2011, 03:02 PM
in my opinion spring training. they are playing exactly like they did in spring. remember the worst record of the spring. Bad habits bad habits

If you can find any direct correlation at all historically between the spring training performance and regular season performance of baseball teams, I would love to hear about it. I mean, seriously, give me a break.

AZChiSoxFan
04-29-2011, 03:10 PM
This movie has been played annually since 2007 and prior to the World Series year, and we all know how it ends, too - in third place with around 84-87 wins.

What reason do you have to be so optimistic? :smile:

Lip Man 1
04-29-2011, 03:15 PM
Double:

That's true although I wasn't specifically talking about April. I was talking about a "slow start". In 2010 that slow start lasted well into May. In 2007 by Memorial Day they were under .500 for example.

Every year since 2006 the Sox have found themselves behind and having to catch up in the early part of the season but more disturbing is that the play during these times hasn't just been bad (which happens to everybody) but putrid for stretches (which doesn't happen for long periods with good teams)

Lip

billcissell
04-29-2011, 04:11 PM
Another slow start, 6 under as we head into May. I suppose there is no need to press the panic button yet. Maybe they can turn it around during this home stand. We've still got 136 games left on the schedule. That's a lot of baseball ahead. I'm thinking and hoping they break out of it during May. Let's see where they're at come Memorial Day.

Zakath
04-29-2011, 05:01 PM
40 games.

I'd go with that number. A quarter of the way into the season.

Barring rainouts, the Sox will play their 40th game on May 14 at Oakland, at which point they'll have only played 16 of those games at home.

Weird thing about the schedule this year: After June 1, the Sox will only have 3 series left on the road against AL teams that are not in the Central (Aug 8-11 @Baltimore, Aug 23-24 @LA Angels, Aug 26-28 @Seattle).

Lip Man 1
04-30-2011, 12:02 AM
Zakath:

All the home games in the second half won't matter. Not the way this team is playing but even under the best of circumstances playing that heavy of a road schedule in the beginning of the season takes its toll.

The Sox got screwed schedule-wise.

Lip

Noneck
04-30-2011, 12:35 AM
Lip,

As it turned they did get screwed but on the other hand if they played decent early, summer games at home would be a bonanza gate wise, early season games are not.

Dub25
04-30-2011, 12:43 AM
For me, it is not early anymore when the bell rings to start the regular season. Yes, it is not a 16 game schedule like it is in the NFL but although you may not win a division in April in MLB you can certainly lose one.

Lip Man 1
04-30-2011, 12:57 AM
Very true Dub.

Lip

Hitmen77
05-01-2011, 06:08 PM
The Sox are TEN games out of first. I don't care what team they're trailing, it is NOT early anymore.

Ten games out on May 1. Wow. That "All In" slogan has really turned out to be a big joke.:mad:

Noneck
05-01-2011, 06:19 PM
Even Rongey at one time said 9 under .500 is the danger point. I dont know if he has now changed his mind.

soltrain21
05-01-2011, 06:20 PM
Even Rongey at one time said 9 under .500 is the danger point. I dont know if he has now changed his mind.

He probably pushed it back now.

Noneck
05-01-2011, 06:25 PM
He probably pushed it back now.

We will see, he is going to have Ozwaldo with him from cork and kerrys at 6pm on 670.

StillMissOzzie
05-02-2011, 12:45 AM
I think that now that it is May, it is no longer "early". This year is already giving me bad flashbacks to the 2001 campaign, when I put a fork in them before Memorial Day.

SMO
:angry:

JB98
05-02-2011, 01:09 AM
I think that now that it is May, it is no longer "early". This year is already giving me bad flashbacks to the 2001 campaign, when I put a fork in them before Memorial Day.

SMO
:angry:

The 2001 club started the season with high expectations, much like this year's club. And they promptly went 14-29 to start the year.

Hasn't gotten that bad yet this season, but give it two weeks and it could.

Lip Man 1
05-02-2011, 11:58 AM
JB:

In fairness two points.

1. The 2001 pitching staff was shot before the first pitch was even thrown due to injuries and off season surgeries sufferend in the back half of 2000. Ron Schueler refused or was unable to get pitching help at the trade deadline and the staff was maxed out trying to win the division. At least they had an excuse.

2. That team showed enough heart to finish with a winning record only the 2nd time in baseball a team 15 under has ever done that.

Right now, if someone told me the Sox would have a winning year but weren't going to really be in contention, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Lip

JB98
05-02-2011, 01:28 PM
JB:

In fairness two points.

1. The 2001 pitching staff was shot before the first pitch was even thrown due to injuries and off season surgeries sufferend in the back half of 2000. Ron Schueler refused or was unable to get pitching help at the trade deadline and the staff was maxed out trying to win the division. At least they had an excuse.

2. That team showed enough heart to finish with a winning record only the 2nd time in baseball a team 15 under has ever done that.

Right now, if someone told me the Sox would have a winning year but weren't going to really be in contention, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Lip

Wouldn't be surprised if that happens. I think this Sox club will have its fools gold winning streak in June, like usual.

This club won't be making the postseason, however. This losing streak is one that they'll never fully recover from. It's been going on for almost three weeks and shows no sign of stopping. I've lost faith that this regime can stop the bleeding.

guillensdisciple
05-02-2011, 02:09 PM
Right now. This season is ovah.

sox1970
05-02-2011, 02:17 PM
I break the season into thirds.

It's early the first 54 games. April and May if you want to go that way.

With 54 of the 72 division games after July 4th, there's plenty of time for things to change. This may end up being a season where it will only take 85-88 games to win the division. We shall see.

Rikirk
05-02-2011, 10:18 PM
So...have we hit rock bottom yet?


Cuz looking on the bright side, if we have...there's no where else to go but up.