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Fenway
08-01-2010, 07:22 PM
A friend posted this on the Bosox mailing list and asked me to pass it along
PLAYOFF ODDS from Cool Standings

AL West Race:
Texas 61-44 88.0%
Anaheim 54-53 5.2%
Oakland 52-52 6.8%

The Angels pulled off one of the biggest trades of the month, acquiring
Haren, however they likely were looking to 2011 and beyond when they did
so. They don't really have much of a chance of catching the Rangers
newly reinforced by Cliff Lee. Nor do I consider the A's to be serious
contenders.

AL Central Race:
Chicago 59-45 45.2%
Minnesota 59-46 53.1%
Detroit 52-52 1.6%

A week ago, the Tigers were just two games out. Since then the White
Sox have gone 6-1, the Twins have run 6 straight, and the Tigers have
played 1-6 baseball (using their closer for 60 pitches to nail down that
one win). They remain a respectable team, bolstered by some deadline
acquisitions, BUT they are a distant third in a three-team race. Ain't
happening!

No insight into the White Sox and Twins. The Twins have the better run
differential, and acquired a key player in Matt Capps (at a high cost),
but the White Sox have been hot for almost two months now. Maybe the
Ozzie show hasn't quite run its course?

AL East Race:
New York 66-38 52.3%
Tampa Bay 65-39 43.8%
Boston 60-45 3.7%
Toronto 54-51 0.2%

The Jays and Red Sox had similar results at the trading deadline,
despite opposite expectations. Everybody looked for the Jays to trade
Scott Downs, while the Red Sox were expected to pick up a quality
reliever. Yet the Jays were insisting on a top prospect while the Red
Sox (and other teams) were refusing to cough them up. So neither team
made any significant deadline move (at least not with this season in
mind). As with the AL Central, it is tough to make a run when playing
third fiddle from a 7-game deficit.

The Yankees made the biggest (literally) acquisition at the deadline,
picking up Lance Berkman as well as Kerry Woods and Austin Kearns. Yet
they whiffed on difference-makers like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren. At some
point, this game boils down to pitching. The Yankees don't have
significantly more pitching depth than they had a week ago. Nor did the
Rays do much, unless you fear Chad Qualls.

AL Wild Card Race:
Tampa Bay 65-39, 42.1%**
New York 66-38, 36.9%**
Boston 60-45, 14.0%
Chicago 59-45, 3.0%**
Minnesota 59-46, 2.4%**
Toronto 54-51, 1.1%

** Also a strong chance of winning their division.

The White Sox and Twins may have comparable records to the Red Sox,
however it is unlikely that they will BOTH surge to the top of the
league. If only one does so, that team wins the division and the other
misses the playoffs entirely. Thus the Wild Card is highly likely to
come from the AL East -- a three team race for two playoff spots. In
this way it is very different from the AL Central race. The Tigers are
essentially finished, while the Red Sox still have a very real chance of
making the playoffs. They simply need to catch ONE of the two teams
ahead of them.

The best chance for that begins next weekend, as the Red Sox enter the
Bronx for a three game series. A series sweep would go a long way
towards getting them back in the race.

-Ted

Slappy
08-01-2010, 08:18 PM
How are the chance percentages calculated?

Here's how I see it: The White Sox have a great bullpen, and the Twins made the move to upgrade theirs. Like "Ted" stated, the Twins have the bigger run differential. But that doesn't tell the whole story obviously. However, it does tell us a little something many of us already knew and are willing to admit - the Chi Sox need more offense. i.e. another bat.

I'll tell you one thing, this central race isn't going to come down to a battle of the bullpens. When Mornaeu and and Orlando Hudson come back, the Twins will heat up. Duensing and Jackson are question marks, so we'll have to see how that situation unfolds.

WhiteSox5187
08-01-2010, 08:24 PM
How are the chance percentages calculated?

Here's how I see it: The White Sox have a great bullpen, and the Twins made the move to upgrade theirs. Like "Ted" stated, the Twins have the bigger run differential. But that doesn't tell the whole story obviously. However, it does tell us a little something many of us already knew and are willing to admit - the Chi Sox need more offense. i.e. another bat.

I'll tell you one thing, this central race isn't going to come down to a battle of the bullpens. When Mornaeu and and Orlando Hudson come back, the Twins will heat up. Duensing and Jackson are question marks, so we'll have to see how that situation unfolds.

It will come down to pitching and defense, as it always does. I think we have a better pitching staff all around, defense I'm not so sure. I'd take our infield with theirs and I think they have a better OF defense.

WhiteSox5187
08-01-2010, 08:25 PM
Also, I think the Red Sox have no chance of making the playoffs. The Yankees and Rays are just too good and the Red Sox are too banged up.

Zakath
08-01-2010, 08:27 PM
AL Central Race:
Chicago 59-45 45.2%
Minnesota 59-46 53.1%
Detroit 52-52 1.6%

A week ago, the Tigers were just two games out. Since then the White
Sox have gone 6-1, the Twins have run 6 straight, and the Tigers have
played 1-6 baseball (using their closer for 60 pitches to nail down that
one win). They remain a respectable team, bolstered by some deadline
acquisitions, BUT they are a distant third in a three-team race. Ain't
happening!


They only made one deadline acquisition (Peralta) and right now they are far from a respectable team. Valverde's 60-pitch episode on Friday wasn't as much nailing down the win as it was barely surviving a disaster of his own making.

Zakath
08-01-2010, 08:29 PM
I'll tell you one thing, this central race isn't going to come down to a battle of the bullpens. When Mornaeu and and Orlando Hudson come back, the Twins will heat up. Duensing and Jackson are question marks, so we'll have to see how that situation unfolds.

They already lead the majors in average and have won 8 in a row, albeit against ****ty competition. Not sure how much hotter they can get offensively.

Fenway
08-01-2010, 08:29 PM
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1


Boston is the mystery team - if they can get everybody back they can make noise.

They have 9 with NYY and 6 with Tampa and we have yet to play the White Sox this year.

I am not sure Detroit can recover from this past week - horribly used their closer Friday to save the win but he wasn't available Sat or Sun.

Zakath
08-01-2010, 08:34 PM
Also, I think the Red Sox have no chance of making the playoffs. The Yankees and Rays are just too good and the Red Sox are too banged up.

Agree. I don't see the Yankees or Rays falling apart enough for Boston to catch up. Red Sox have a big 10-game road trip coming up starting with 4 in NY. Their chances of catching up really ride on them at least splitting in NY and winning 3 or 4 of the 6 in Toronto and Texas.

Slappy
08-01-2010, 08:36 PM
So they're betting odds? I thought it was going to be something a little more sophisticated.

And Zakath, what I meant was, that .5 game lead we have will probably not be there. But you proved my point anyway.

hawkjt
08-02-2010, 01:49 AM
:o::o:http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1


Boston is the mystery team - if they can get everybody back they can make noise.

They have 9 with NYY and 6 with Tampa and we have yet to play the White Sox this year.

I am not sure Detroit can recover from this past week - horribly used their closer Friday to save the win but he wasn't available Sat or Sun.


The Sox will catch the Red Sox at their healthiest,I am sure.:o:
Those seven games in sept can decide the fate for either team.
I am hoping the Red Sox are 12 back by then and mailing it in...not likely,but ya never know.

asindc
08-02-2010, 09:44 AM
How are the chance percentages calculated?

Here's how I see it: The White Sox have a great bullpen, and the Twins made the move to upgrade theirs. Like "Ted" stated, the Twins have the bigger run differential. But that doesn't tell the whole story obviously. However, it does tell us a little something many of us already knew and are willing to admit - the Chi Sox need more offense. i.e. another bat.

I'll tell you one thing, this central race isn't going to come down to a battle of the bullpens. When Mornaeu and and Orlando Hudson come back, the Twins will heat up. Duensing and Jackson are question marks, so we'll have to see how that situation unfolds.

What do you mean "will heat up?" They are already hot.

asindc
08-02-2010, 09:46 AM
Agree. I don't see the Yankees or Rays falling apart enough for Boston to catch up. Red Sox have a big 10-game road trip coming up starting with 4 in NY. Their chances of catching up really ride on them at least splitting in NY and winning 3 or 4 of the 6 in Toronto and Texas.

The thing is, though, that Boston likely only has to catch one of the two teams in front of them. I don't think it is likely that both the Sox and Minny will finish with better record than the 2nd place AL East team.

Hitmen77
08-02-2010, 09:48 AM
AL Central Race:
Chicago 59-45 45.2%
Minnesota 59-46 53.1%
Detroit 52-52 1.6%

A week ago, the Tigers were just two games out. Since then the White
Sox have gone 6-1, the Twins have run 6 straight, and the Tigers have
played 1-6 baseball (using their closer for 60 pitches to nail down that
one win). They remain a respectable team, bolstered by some deadline
acquisitions, BUT they are a distant third in a three-team race. Ain't
happening!

No insight into the White Sox and Twins. The Twins have the better run
differential, and acquired a key player in Matt Capps (at a high cost),
but the White Sox have been hot for almost two months now. Maybe the
Ozzie show hasn't quite run its course?



Since facing each other, the Sox have played Seattle 7 times and the Twins played Seattle+Baltimore a total of 7 times. Both teams went 6-1 during these games vs. the AL's two worst teams. Otherwise, perhaps the Sox had tougher schedule facing Oakland 6 times instead of KC+Cleveland a total of 6 times, but that's not the difference maker since the All-Star break.

On July 16, the Sox were 4.5 games ahead of the Twins and today they are 0.5 games ahead of the Twins - a gain of 4 games by Minnesota. The difference? The 7-4 loss on July 16 where the Sox made 4 errors and gave up 5 unearned runs and the loss on July 18 where Jenks melted down and the Sox blew a 6-3 lead in the 9th. That's a 4 game swing right there. Two games that the White Sox totally pissed away (one by lousy defense, and the other a complete implosion in the 9th).

My point is that I think the Sox can take this division if they can play solid baseball and not gift wrap games to other teams. The Twins might not necessarily be better than us on paper, but they sure as hell don't seem to just "give away" games as often as we do. This race is going to come down to whether the White Sox can play solid, heads-up baseball. If they do, I like our chances. If not, this will be yet another season where the Sox can't hold a division lead and fade at the finish.

Moses_Scurry
08-02-2010, 10:10 AM
Minnesota will cool down. The Sox will cool down. The winner will be the one who cools down less. I'm not as worried about Morneau coming back. There's no way of knowing if he'll even be 100% when he gets back, and the Minnie offense can't get much hotter than they have been.

TDog
08-02-2010, 12:10 PM
The reality is, there is only one playoff spot in contention in the American League right now. Boston, the team that plays in Anaheim, the A's and Tigers will have to win a lot of games just to get back into contention.

The Rays and Yankees are battling to see who gets the East and who gets the Wild Card. The Rangers have a commanding lead in the West. That leaves the White Sox and Twins battling for the other spot.

That could change. A team currently in contention or with a big lead could cool down. Teams on the edge could get hot. But the Tigers and Red Sox have injury issues, The A's can't win consistently on the road, and have injury issues of their own.

For that matter, the White Sox and Twins have injury issues.

I thought the White Sox were going to win it last year with the acquisition of Rios, but they lost it in the last six weeks. Lots can happen in the last six weeks, of which the 1969 Cubs remain the poster boy because the 2005 White Sox never lost that huge lead they built.

WhiteSox5187
08-02-2010, 03:21 PM
What do you mean "will heat up?" They are already hot.

Eh, anyone can look hot playing the likes of Kansas City, Baltimore and Seattle in three consecutive series. Those were teams they were supposed to beat and they did (the Sox did too), let's see how they do this week where they have to play Tampa and Cleveland (keep in mind Cleveland took two out of three from them last time they played too).