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View Full Version : Now is the time: through 8/26


downstairs
07-14-2010, 12:49 PM
Looking at our second half schedule, up until the Yankees on 8/27... we have nothing but under-500 teams, and the two teams we need to take care of.

We could (should?) be solidly in first place by this point, with some good distance on Minny and Detroit.

I'm excited. After a pessimistic first half, that required a lot of luck (25-5 is a lot of luck) to get to where we should be... I think we can have some expectations now.

pudge
07-14-2010, 01:04 PM
http://www.b2bcoaching.co.uk/thumbs%20up%20low%20res.jpg

This thread rules! Please don't let the ASB cool this team off!

LITTLE NELL
07-14-2010, 01:08 PM
Right off the bat we have our work cut out for us with a 10 game road trip. 6-4 would be nice but right now I'll take 5-5. This trip could set the tone for the 2nd half.

sox1970
07-14-2010, 01:12 PM
40 games until August 26. I'll take 23-17, with at least 5-5 vs Minnesota, and 4-3 vs Detroit.

Min 5-5
Det 4-3
Sea 4-3
Oak 4-2
Bal 4-3
KC 2-1
23-17

SoxGirl4Life
07-14-2010, 01:18 PM
We have to play strong coming off the break. This 10 game road trip should build momentum, not expose that we need another two months to re-start the pitchers and the offense.

I need 7-3 from them, if not 8-2. Time to pull the big boy pants up and make a statement in the division!

Go SOX! :gulp:

Moses_Scurry
07-14-2010, 01:28 PM
When is Morneau playing again?

Crede24Thome25
07-14-2010, 01:32 PM
When is Morneau playing again?
Hopefully not this series!

downstairs
07-14-2010, 01:52 PM
When is Morneau playing again?

SportingNews says the Twins want him to return Thursday against the Sox, but it's still unclear.

I wish him the best, of course. And I hope the best is a few more relaxing days off. :)

Link:
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/FantasySourceFastball/entry/view/71152/weekly_planner_injuries_to_watch

kobo
07-14-2010, 02:23 PM
After a pessimistic first half, that required a lot of luck (25-5 is a lot of luck) to get to where we should be... I think we can have some expectations now.
What luck? Why do people keep saying the Sox have been lucky during the last 30 games? It's not like they had calls going their way, bounces going their way, etc. There wasn't much luck involved, just very good pitching, good defense and timely hitting. If that's luck then every team is lucky.

Madvora
07-14-2010, 02:25 PM
This thread rules! Please don't let the ASB cool this team off!
Every team had to sit through the all-star break. It will have no effect on how the Sox play.

TDog
07-14-2010, 03:01 PM
What luck? Why do people keep saying the Sox have been lucky during the last 30 games? It's not like they had calls going their way, bounces going their way, etc. There wasn't much luck involved, just very good pitching, good defense and timely hitting. If that's luck then every team is lucky.

If the White Sox have been lucky over the last 30 games, they were pretty darned unlucky the first two months of the season.

The 1984 White Sox moved into first place Just before the break, but coming back, they lost a twi-night doubleheader to the Orioles and never saw first place again. But that team, I don't believe, ever got more than four games above .500. I have believed since opening day this year that the White Sox were better than either the Twins or the Tigers, but winning games after the break in July and August is the difference between the 1983 and the 1977 and 1984 teams. For that matter, it's what last year's White Sox team didn't do.

When you're hot, it often doesn't matter who you're playing. I just hope the White Sox return from the break hot.

Zakath
07-14-2010, 03:06 PM
40 games until August 26. I'll take 23-17, with at least 5-5 vs Minnesota, and 4-3 vs Detroit.

Min 5-5
Det 4-3
Sea 4-3
Oak 4-2
Bal 4-3
KC 2-1
23-17

With the schedule we have, we'd better do a lot better than 23-17. No reason to only take 4 of 7 from both Seattle (a team 18 games under .500 who just lost its best pitcher) and Baltimore (a team 30 games under .500 who still hasn't named a permanent manager).

The Tigers' and Twins' schedules in September are easier than ours, while both play tougher slates in the next month than we do (Tigers have to go to Tampa, Boston, and NY [11 games total] and host Texas, Tampa, and the Angels [10 games], while the Twins have to travel to Texas and Tampa for 4 each). This period is the best time to open a lead while the other two have to slug it out with the AL's best. The one advantage we do have in September is that every other AL Central opponent plays their last series against us in The Cell.

IMHO, I think we need 75 wins by the end of that stretch.

sox1970
07-14-2010, 03:12 PM
With the schedule we have, we'd better do a lot better than 23-17. No reason to only take 4 of 7 from both Seattle (a team 18 games under .500 who just lost its best pitcher) and Baltimore (a team 30 games under .500 who still hasn't named a permanent manager).

The Tigers' and Twins' schedules in September are easier than ours, while both play tougher slates in the next month than we do (Tigers have to go to Tampa, Boston, and NY [11 games total] and host Texas, Tampa, and the Angels [10 games], while the Twins have to travel to Texas and Tampa for 4 each). This period is the best time to open a lead while the other two have to slug it out with the AL's best. The one advantage we do have in September is that every other AL Central opponent plays their last series against us in The Cell.

We're facing Felix Hernandez twice. That might be a tough. Sox are also probably using a spot starter (Torres?) in Baltimore. If they lose that, and go 4-2 in the other 6, that would be ok. Are the Sox capable of much better than 23-17? Sure. But this is what they have to do at minimum.

Zakath
07-14-2010, 03:27 PM
We're facing Felix Hernandez twice. That might be a tough. Sox are also probably using a spot starter (Torres?) in Baltimore. If they lose that, and go 4-2 in the other 6, that would be ok. Are the Sox capable of much better than 23-17? Sure. But this is what they have to do at minimum.

Mariners are also one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (.238 as a team, only the Pirates are worse). Outside of Ichiro, they don't have anyone hitting over .265 and they're tied for last with the fewest HR in the majors (57, no one on the team has more than 8). With that, I don't mind getting into a pitching duel with Felix Hernandez. Even if we see him twice, I don't think we lose both of them.

As for Baltimore, while they hit better than the Mariners, their pitching staff is dreadful. 4.99 team ERA with a 1.51 WHIP (worst in both in the AL, compare to us at 4.01 and 1.31, respectively). They hit slightly better than we do for average (.259 vs. .257), but they don't convert it into runs (324 scored vs. our 393).

We should definitely take more than 4 from each of them. If we don't, we're in trouble. 72 wins near the end of August isn't going to be enough.

sox1970
07-14-2010, 03:45 PM
Mariners are also one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (.238 as a team, only the Pirates are worse). Outside of Ichiro, they don't have anyone hitting over .265 and they're tied for last with the fewest HR in the majors (57, no one on the team has more than 8). With that, I don't mind getting into a pitching duel with Felix Hernandez. Even if we see him twice, I don't think we lose both of them.

As for Baltimore, while they hit better than the Mariners, their pitching staff is dreadful. 4.99 team ERA with a 1.51 WHIP (worst in both in the AL, compare to us at 4.01 and 1.31, respectively). They hit slightly better than we do for average (.259 vs. .257), but they don't convert it into runs (324 scored vs. our 393).

We should definitely take more than 4 from each of them. If we don't, we're in trouble. 72 wins near the end of August isn't going to be enough.

How about 75 wins at the end of August? That would leave 30 games, and 16-14 gets us to 91-71. That should be enough.

Hitmen77
07-14-2010, 03:58 PM
If the White Sox have been lucky over the last 30 games, they were pretty darned unlucky the first two months of the season.

The 1984 White Sox moved into first place Just before the break, but coming back, they lost a twi-night doubleheader to the Orioles and never saw first place again. But that team, I don't believe, ever got more than four games above .500. I have believed since opening day this year that the White Sox were better than either the Twins or the Tigers, but winning games after the break in July and August is the difference between the 1983 and the 1977 and 1984 teams. For that matter, it's what last year's White Sox team didn't do.

When you're hot, it often doesn't matter who you're playing. I just hope the White Sox return from the break hot.

Well said. I think this is the key to our success - not stumbling out of the gate after the break. I seem to remember a number of Sox teams doing this in past years (2006 comes to mind).

Of course they're not going to win at a 25-5 clip the rest of the way, but our roster is looking pretty solid if players can avoid slumps:

C- AJ's bat has come around after an awful start.
1B- Konerko is having a great year. He just needs to avoid going into one of his "ice cold" slumps.
2B- Beckham has obviously struggled. Was his 3-4 effort on Sunday a sign of him snapping out of it? If so, that's a big boost to our chances.
SS- Alexei has really turned things around offensively and defensively after a terrible start.
3B- Vizquel has been great for us. Teahen who? Omar isn't going to play every day, but Viciedo has hit well and can back him up.
LF- I don't think Pierre is great, but if he can play to his career norms, that should be good enough.
CF- Rios is having an outstanding season
RF- Quentin has suddenly looked like the 2008 "TCQ". Can he keep that up and stay healthy?
DH- Still a hole in our lineup, but maybe not so bad with Viciedo in the mix and Jones showing signs of life again. I'd still prefer we acquire a bat, but I'm not holding my breath for that.

Pitching- if the top 4 starters can keep pitching well, we'll stay on a roll. Especially with Santos-Putz-Thornton-Jenks there to close out games. Hudson is obviously a huge question mark, but he does have some promise.

I think that looks good, but they still have to avoid falling flat coming out of the All Star break.

TheOldRoman
07-14-2010, 03:58 PM
Mariners are also one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (.238 as a team, only the Pirates are worse). Outside of Ichiro, they don't have anyone hitting over .265 and they're tied for last with the fewest HR in the majors (57, no one on the team has more than 8). With that, I don't mind getting into a pitching duel with Felix Hernandez. Even if we see him twice, I don't think we lose both of them.Who knows. Maybe he faces Floyd both times and Gavin gets another few 8 inning 0/1 run no decisions.:angry:

hawkjt
07-14-2010, 04:11 PM
Seattle has 3 good starters left, and two bad. We face #5,#1,#2,then the next week we face #1,#2,#3,#4...so out of those 7 games, we face good starters 5 times...not good. Really hate this kind of stacked schedule vs the same two teams back to back weeks...pretty much assures that we will see their best starters multiple times.

The way it lines up Felix will face Danks both times.

sox1970
07-14-2010, 04:19 PM
Seattle has 3 good starters left, and two bad. We face #5,#1,#2,then the next week we face #1,#2,#3,#4...so out of those 7 games, we face good starters 5 times...not good. Really hate this kind of stacked schedule vs the same two teams back to back weeks...pretty much assures that we will see their best starters multiple times.

The way it lines up Felix will face Danks both times.

Mariners don't have any off days. I think it will be:

Away: Hudson-Bedard, Danks-Fister, Floyd-Hernandez

Home: Danks-Hernandez, Floyd-Rowland-Smith, Buehrle-Vargas, Garcia-Bedard

This is, of course, if Bedard is ready. But that's the 5th spot.

downstairs
07-14-2010, 04:28 PM
What luck? Why do people keep saying the Sox have been lucky during the last 30 games? It's not like they had calls going their way, bounces going their way, etc. There wasn't much luck involved, just very good pitching, good defense and timely hitting. If that's luck then every team is lucky.

Its not all luck, but come on- 25-5 has to contain a good amount of luck.

Its not a knock on them, but I don't expect them to go 25-5 over the next 30.

SBSoxFan
07-14-2010, 06:02 PM
Its not all luck, but come on- 25-5 has to contain a good amount of luck.

Its not a knock on them, but I don't expect them to go 25-5 over the next 30.

So, give some examples of when they were lucky. The only game that comes to my mind right away was the last game prior to the break when Greinke was scratched. In fact, I would say with a little luck they would have gone better than 25-5. I don't, for example, recall any great comebacks or walk-off wins during that time. The Sox have simply been dominate since June 9th. They pitched and caught the ball extremely well, hit well, and ran the bases well. That's a recipe for a lot of victories since most teams aren't that well rounded. Those are reasons the Twins win a fair amount of games every year even though they don't always look good on paper; most teams find a way to beat themselves eventually.

I'm having a hard time understanding the lack of belief in this team. It's been said that, in baseball, you have to have a short memory. I'm choosing to do the same.

Ranger
07-14-2010, 09:00 PM
What luck? Why do people keep saying the Sox have been lucky during the last 30 games? It's not like they had calls going their way, bounces going their way, etc. There wasn't much luck involved, just very good pitching, good defense and timely hitting. If that's luck then every team is lucky.

I completely agree with you. An improbable run doesn't necessarily mean that a lot of luck was involved. They've simply been doing everything right. Nothing lucky about that.

Ranger
07-14-2010, 09:04 PM
Its not all luck, but come on- 25-5 has to contain a good amount of luck.

Its not a knock on them, but I don't expect them to go 25-5 over the next 30.

I don't expect it either, but that doesn't have anything to do with luck. They've been in control of every one of their wins. The only lucky thing I can remember, is that chopper Beckham hit during the last game of the first half...the one that bounced over the first baseman's head. He wasn't trying to do that, but it worked out.

It was a terrific run, but it sure as hell wasn't lucky.

FielderJones
07-14-2010, 09:44 PM
In fact, I would say with a little luck they would have gone better than 25-5.

Two of those five losses were to the Flubs. Both of those losses were winnable games with a little luck.

pudge
07-16-2010, 12:02 PM
Every team had to sit through the all-star break. It will have no effect on how the Sox play.

The fact that every team had to sit through the All-Star break doesn't mean the Sox couldn't cool off. They were hotter than anyone going into it. I'm not saying they'll start losing, but three days off when you're that hot certainly could cool you off. Again, cooling off doesn't necessarily mean losing.

Now, if the argument is these guys have played baseball almost every day for three months and three days off would have no impact on timing, etc., because of how much baseball they've played, then I could buy that argument.

pudge
07-16-2010, 12:05 PM
Mariners are also one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (.238 as a team, only the Pirates are worse). Outside of Ichiro, they don't have anyone hitting over .265 and they're tied for last with the fewest HR in the majors (57, no one on the team has more than 8). With that, I don't mind getting into a pitching duel with Felix Hernandez. Even if we see him twice, I don't think we lose both of them.

As for Baltimore, while they hit better than the Mariners, their pitching staff is dreadful. 4.99 team ERA with a 1.51 WHIP (worst in both in the AL, compare to us at 4.01 and 1.31, respectively). They hit slightly better than we do for average (.259 vs. .257), but they don't convert it into runs (324 scored vs. our 393).

We should definitely take more than 4 from each of them. If we don't, we're in trouble. 72 wins near the end of August isn't going to be enough.

I sat through all 14 innings or whatever it was last year of that duel with Felix... this year's team would have won that game five times over.

downstairs
07-16-2010, 04:13 PM
I don't expect it either, but that doesn't have anything to do with luck. They've been in control of every one of their wins. The only lucky thing I can remember, is that chopper Beckham hit during the last game of the first half...the one that bounced over the first baseman's head. He wasn't trying to do that, but it worked out.

It was a terrific run, but it sure as hell wasn't lucky.

Well, let me clarify. I merely meant to say they've played well above their expectations (no one can be expected to play .800 ball).

I just want them to play *at* their expected level from here on out. Which I believe is that of a first place team.

I was using the term "luck" loosely. More like "whew, after that stinker of a start, we're lucky to have gone on a 25-5 run to quickly return to where we should have been".