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fram40
07-12-2010, 09:08 PM
Interesting especially for the stat's geeks

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/the-white-sox-take-the-lead/

WhiteSox5187
07-12-2010, 09:39 PM
Interesting especially for the stat's geeks

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/the-white-sox-take-the-lead/

Did anyone see that comment on the bottom? Boy what a time to go into a coma!

Coops4Aces
07-12-2010, 09:56 PM
Did anyone see that comment on the bottom? Boy what a time to go into a coma!

That guy has to be kidding.

DonnieDarko
07-12-2010, 10:38 PM
Wow. I know that our defense has been good, but that good?

That's something else.

TomBradley72
07-12-2010, 10:46 PM
I know we can't keep up the 25-5 pace....but it's a good sign than exceptional pitching and defense drove the run we had vs. an unusual explosion of offense.

Pitching and especially defense are usually more sustainable over time.

Huisj
07-12-2010, 10:50 PM
Wow. I know that our defense has been good, but that good?

That's something else.

I think defense means when they are on defense, which means pitching.

kaufsox
07-12-2010, 11:10 PM
Ok, I get WPA but what is WPA/LI?

mjmcend
07-12-2010, 11:30 PM
Wow, that graph is something to see. I mean we all know we came back from the dead, but to see it visually depicted like that is something.

A. Cavatica
07-13-2010, 04:51 AM
"...I looked at the team's Win Probability Added (WPA) breakout during their 25-5 run. Here it is:

Offense: -0.5 gamesDefense: 10.5 gamesIf you look at their performance on a contextual basis, which is what WPA does, their pitching and fielding actually made up for a below-average contribution from the bats."

Good, it's still OK to hope Greg Walker gets fired.

fram40
07-13-2010, 07:03 AM
"...I looked at the team's Win Probability Added (WPA) breakout during their 25-5 run. Here it is:

Offense: -0.5 gamesDefense: 10.5 gamesIf you look at their performance on a contextual basis, which is what WPA does, their pitching and fielding actually made up for a below-average contribution from the bats."

Good, it's still OK to hope Greg Walker gets fired.

good one.

TomBradley72
07-13-2010, 07:52 AM
"...I looked at the team's Win Probability Added (WPA) breakout during their 25-5 run. Here it is:

Offense: -0.5 gamesDefense: 10.5 gamesIf you look at their performance on a contextual basis, which is what WPA does, their pitching and fielding actually made up for a below-average contribution from the bats."

Good, it's still OK to hope Greg Walker gets fired.

Here's the ranking of AL teams in runs scored for 2010 and their hitting coaches...which "guru" would have an impact on 2010?

Red Sox- Dave Magadan
Yankees- Kevin Long
Rangers- Clint Hurdle
Rays- Derek Shelton
Angels- Mickey Hatcher
Twins-Joe Vavra
Tigers-Lloyd McClendon
Blue Jays- Dwayne Murphy
Royals- Kevin Seitzer

doublem23
07-13-2010, 08:05 AM
Ok, I get WPA but what is WPA/LI?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-wpali/

I'm more of a fan of just straight WPA myself.

FielderJones
07-13-2010, 10:23 AM
Here's the ranking of AL teams in runs scored for 2010 and their hitting coaches...which "guru" would have an impact on 2010?

Red Sox- Dave Magadan
Yankees- Kevin Long
Rangers- Clint Hurdle
Rays- Derek Shelton
Angels- Mickey Hatcher
Twins-Joe Vavra
Tigers-Lloyd McClendon
Blue Jays- Dwayne Murphy
Royals- Kevin Seitzer



None of them, Rudy Jaramillo is the master. Oh, wait ...

doublem23
07-13-2010, 11:01 AM
None of them, Rudy Jaramillo is the master. Oh, wait ...

I'm surprised it took almost 3 hours for this post to show up. You Walker Disciples are off your game.

TomBradley72
07-13-2010, 11:19 AM
I'm surprised it took almost 3 hours for this post to show up. You Walker Disciples are off your game.

I think a another variable enters the mix now, which is where we are in the season. So you fire Walker tomorrow, and bring in a new hitting coach, how long does it take for him to get to know your hitters, evaluate, etc., then how long does it take the new "guru/anti-Walker" to implement his changes, and then when do you see an impact?

Assuming a few weeks for each...you've created an impact for the last month of the season for the hitters who are currently struggling (which is zero, everyone is hitting well over the past 30 days and especially in July), and potentially disrupted the hitters who are really coming along (Quentin, Viciedo, etc.).

It might feel good to say "Fire Walker", it just doesn't make sense.

doublem23
07-13-2010, 11:25 AM
I think a another variable enters the mix now, which is where we are in the season. So you fire Walker tomorrow, and bring in a new hitting coach, how long does it take for him to get to know your hitters, evaluate, etc., then how long does it take the new "guru/anti-Walker" to implement his changes, and then when do you see an impact?

Assuming a few weeks for each...you've created an impact for the last month of the season for the hitters who are currently struggling (which is zero, everyone is hitting well over the past 30 days and especially in July), and potentially disrupted the hitters who are really coming along (Quentin, Viciedo, etc.).

It might feel good to say "Fire Walker", it just doesn't make sense.

Well at this point, after this run, I wouldn't fire him just because there's no point in rattling the cage when things are going well. I'm just saying, if I had the power to make that decision and could be transported back in time to the start of the season, I would have still fired him then.

FielderJones
07-13-2010, 12:13 PM
I'm surprised it took almost 3 hours for this post to show up. You Walker Disciples are off your game.

I'm neither a Walker Disciple nor a Walker Apologist. I'm a Hitting Coach Agnostic. I disagree with the concept that firing Greg Walker and hiring Rudy Jaramillo or any other batting guru will magically add thirty points to the White Sox team batting average.

doublem23
07-13-2010, 12:17 PM
I'm neither a Walker Disciple nor a Walker Apologist. I'm a Hitting Coach Agnostic. I disagree with the concept that firing Greg Walker and hiring Rudy Jaramillo or any other batting guru will magically add thirty points to the White Sox team batting average.

Please direct me to whenever anyone has ever made such a claim. The furthest anyone has ever treaded in this argument is that likely the MLB Hitting Coach doesn't make much of any positive or negative difference (AKA the poshest job in the known universe), but if there's a chance anyone might have more success with this roster, maybe we should roll the dice. Seriously, how much worse could anyone else be at this?

FielderJones
07-13-2010, 01:08 PM
Please direct me to whenever anyone has ever made such a claim. The furthest anyone has ever treaded in this argument is that likely the MLB Hitting Coach doesn't make much of any positive or negative difference (AKA the poshest job in the known universe), but if there's a chance anyone might have more success with this roster, maybe we should roll the dice. Seriously, how much worse could anyone else be at this?

So, it's worth firing Walker to add ten points to the team batting average? Adding flux and uncertainty will help things? To me it seems that the successful franchises are the stable ones, not the ones with coaching revolving doors.

And right now, now that the team is firing on all cylinders, means Walker's work counts for nothing? If it's just blind luck that the team is hitting now, why wasn't it just bad luck in April and May?

UofCSoxFan
07-13-2010, 01:18 PM
I'm neither a Walker Disciple nor a Walker Apologist. I'm a Hitting Coach Agnostic. I disagree with the concept that firing Greg Walker and hiring Rudy Jaramillo or any other batting guru will magically add thirty points to the White Sox team batting average.

To me hitting coaches are like Presidents...they get too much credit when things are going well and too much blame when they are not. Uliltmiately it's up to the player to make adjustments based on his own feel of his swing. Keep in mind these are major league hitters that have been hitting a baseball at an elite level for 20 to 30 years. This isn't the same as your dad in the backyard teaching you the mechanics of the swing. Sure a hitting coach can help a player optimize his skills by making suggestions/getting the player in the right mind frame, but his impact is ultimately overblown.

I guess that makes me a hitting coach nihilist.

doublem23
07-13-2010, 01:28 PM
To me hitting coaches are like Presidents...they get too much credit when things are going well and too much blame when they are not. Uliltmiately it's up to the player to make adjustments based on his own feel of his swing. Keep in mind these are major league hitters that have been hitting a baseball at an elite level for 20 to 30 years. This isn't the same as your dad in the backyard teaching you the mechanics of the swing. Sure a hitting coach can help a player optimize his skills by making suggestions/getting the player in the right mind frame, but his impact is ultimately overblown.

I guess that makes me a hitting coach nihilist.

Abraham Lincoln does not support this post.

TomBradley72
07-13-2010, 01:45 PM
Abraham Lincoln does not support this post.

Chester Arthur completely supports it. :cool:

Frater Perdurabo
07-13-2010, 07:20 PM
None of them, Rudy Jaramillo is the master. Oh, wait ...

Oh, wait... Rudy Jaramillo doesn't coach in the AL anymore.

A. Cavatica
07-13-2010, 08:37 PM
I've actually changed my mind about Walker being fired, for three reasons.

1) The most obvious reason to fire him was because the team was moribund, especially the hitters, and it would have shaken the team up. But KW's threat did the job -- the team is red hot and in first place! Obviously you have to wait until the end of the season and reevaluate.

2) The stats I was so quick to accept as evidence for firing Walker are nonsense. If you click on the link, you'll see several Sox hitters in the list multiple times, and the author of the article doesn't explain the columns or cite his source. Caveat Internet, I guess. (My own casual survey of team OPS by month shows the team improving steadily.)

3) The second best reason to fire Walker was because it's absurd to have a hitting coach on the payroll if the hitting coach can't actually help the players with their hitting, because they're big leaguers and they are who they are, yadda yadda yadda. My thought is: either the hitting coach is supposed to help the players hit, in which case he should be accountable for their performance, or he's a useless expense. But it's not my money, and Walker is not the only useless expense on the coaching staff. If the team misses the playoffs, it's the manager's head that should be on the block.

kaufsox
07-14-2010, 10:47 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-wpali/

I'm more of a fan of just straight WPA myself.

Thanks D23