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Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 03:27 PM
Was at a party over the weekend with both Sox and Cubs fans and we were all talking about this upcoming series against the Cubs.

Another Sox fan said he would trade Quentin, Linebrink, Carlos Torres, and Jordan Danks to the Cubs for Fukudome, Gorzelanny, Theroit and cash.

The Sox fan said he would send Beckham back to 3rd and would play Theroit at 2nd.

Would any of you do this trade?

mzh
06-21-2010, 03:30 PM
:bundy
No thank you.

Unless of course its $10,000,000 in cash :redneck

BadBobbyJenks
06-21-2010, 03:49 PM
What the **** would we do with Gorzelanny?

34rancher
06-21-2010, 03:50 PM
In short....hell no. Dumb trade.

Lillian
06-21-2010, 03:54 PM
That's just awful!!
What is everyone's big hurry around here, to unload Quentin?
That would really have the potential to backfire, big time.
Wouldn't it look pretty stupid, if he returned to his 2008 form?
It's not that unrealistic. This kid was always a potential star, when he was with the Diamonbacks.

Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 04:00 PM
What the **** would we do with Gorzelanny?

I guess the guy thought that Gorz would be are other lefty out of the pen.

Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 04:01 PM
That's just awful!!
What is everyone's big hurry around here, to unload Quentin?
That would really have the potential to backfire, big time.
Wouldn't it look pretty stupid, if he returned to his 2008 form?
It's not that unrealistic. This kid was always a potential star, when he was with the Diamonbacks.

Quentin has been awful the last year and half

Risk
06-21-2010, 04:03 PM
Hell no!

Why trade 3 young guys who may still have the potential to be good for 3 pieces of crap (and an expensive piece of crap like Fukudome)?

And we're stuck with Linebrink, for better or for worse (mostly worse), unless another team takes him (which probably won't happen unless the Sox pay his salary).

Risk

Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 04:07 PM
Hell no!

Why trade 3 young guys who may still have the potential to be good for 3 pieces of crap (and an expensive piece of crap like Fukudome)?

And we're stuck with Linebrink, for better or for worse (mostly worse), unless another team takes him (which probably won't happen unless the Sox pay his salary).

Risk


I don't think Theroit is a piece of crap..

Fukudome has been a lot better than Quentin has over the last 2 seasons. He's also a better defender

I would take Gorz over Linebrink any day of the week

Sargeant79
06-21-2010, 04:18 PM
Aboslutely not a chance in Hell that I would do that trade.

DumpJerry
06-21-2010, 05:07 PM
:bundy
no thank you.
+1

kittle42
06-21-2010, 05:09 PM
And you actually thought this trade might be a good idea?

Yikes.

Lillian
06-21-2010, 05:13 PM
Quentin has been awful the last year and half

Yes, he hasn't been playing very well. You give up on him, if you like.
I'm not so quick to do so.

soxfanreggie
06-21-2010, 05:52 PM
Yes, he hasn't been playing very well. You give up on him, if you like.
I'm not so quick to do so.

I think there is a big difference between "hasn't been playing very well" and what Quentin has done this year.

Nobody here has given up on Quentin just yet, but to not realize he has played very poorly, especially this year, would be foolish. "Hasn't been playing very well" makes it seem (to me) like he's on a short-term slump or batting like .240.

cards press box
06-21-2010, 05:54 PM
I guess the guy thought that Gorz would be are other lefty out of the pen.

Can't we just wait for the Cubs to release Gorzelanny or, if they would go for it, deal Linebrink straight up for Gorzelanny?

The multi-player deal discussed at the beginning of the thread would never happen and shouldn't happen, as it would be a bad deal for the Sox.

What's more, after the signing of Chris Sale yesterday, the possible acquisition of Gorzelanny or other potential lefty relievers may be a moot point. I suspect that the Sox want Sale to be their second lefty in the pen come August and September. Mark Buerhle was a reliever in his rookie year and then became a starter. Sale may be on the same path.

spawn
06-21-2010, 07:00 PM
Hell to the no.

g0g0
06-21-2010, 07:20 PM
I wouldn't want it either way!

kittle42
06-21-2010, 07:45 PM
I suspect that the Sox want Sale to be their second lefty in the pen come August and September.

Um, no. Maybe September 2013.

mzh
06-21-2010, 08:04 PM
Um, no. Maybe September 2013.
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=120990

See the notes on the Sale signing. He expects to be given a chance to make the pen by August and make the team as a starter out of camp next year.

cws05champ
06-21-2010, 08:19 PM
I guess the guy thought that Gorz would be are other lefty out of the pen.
Do you realize that Gorz has 4.26 ERA against Left handers this year? I bet we could call up Threets, Hudson or Torres and do better than that.

Including Torres (who has been great once again in AAA), Danks (who could be up late this year) and Quentin for a bloated contract in Fukudome, and a singles hitter in Theriot????

With the Way Beckham has been hitting for no power this year your lineup would feature Pierre, Theriot, Fukudome and Beckham. Combined you have 7 homers between the four of them this year. Less than what Quentin has...and he has been awful.

Brian26
06-21-2010, 08:31 PM
Yes, he hasn't been playing very well. You give up on him, if you like.
I'm not so quick to do so.

"Not so quick" dates back now to the injury to end the 2008 season.

Brian26
06-21-2010, 08:35 PM
Was at a party over the weekend with both Sox and Cubs fans and we were all talking about this upcoming series against the Cubs.

Another Sox fan said he would trade Quentin, Linebrink, Carlos Torres, and Jordan Danks to the Cubs for Fukudome, Gorzelanny, Theroit and cash.

The Sox fan said he would send Beckham back to 3rd and would play Theroit at 2nd.

Would any of you do this trade?

Take Danks out of the trade, and I'd do it. I'm a bit of a gambler, though.

My thoughts are that sometimes you need to mix things up. I like Theriot a lot, and Quentin has looked lost at the plate now for the last season and a half.

asindc
06-21-2010, 08:37 PM
Let me put it this way... NO.

Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 08:44 PM
Do you realize that Gorz has 4.26 ERA against Left handers this year? I bet we could call up Threets, Hudson or Torres and do better than that.

Including Torres (who has been great once again in AAA), Danks (who could be up late this year) and Quentin for a bloated contract in Fukudome, and a singles hitter in Theriot????

With the Way Beckham has been hitting for no power this year your lineup would feature Pierre, Theriot, Fukudome and Beckham. Combined you have 7 homers between the four of them this year. Less than what Quentin has...and he has been awful.


We can make the stats look anyway possible to debate the argument

Fukudome 281 compare to Q 219 Avg. Fukudome also has a higher OBP and is a better defender.

Theroit is batting around 290 with a 330 OBP, while last time I checked Torres is 4-5 at Triple A and Danks is batting around 240.



IMO it just might be Q had a career year in 08 and will never be able to match those numbers again.

#1swisher
06-21-2010, 08:48 PM
was at a party over the weekend with both sox and cubs fans and we were all talking about this upcoming series against the cubs.

Another sox fan said he would trade quentin, linebrink, carlos torres, and jordan danks to the cubs for fukudome, gorzelanny, theroit and cash.

The sox fan said he would send beckham back to 3rd and would play theroit at 2nd.

Would any of you do this trade?

No

Rockabilly
06-21-2010, 08:51 PM
I seemed to remember a few years ago. that many people on this board. Didn't want to trade Brandon McCarthy and Joe Crede for A Rod or Carl Crawford.

because the Sox would be getting screwed if we made either of the those deals

kittle42
06-21-2010, 08:57 PM
I seemed to remember a few years ago. that many people on this board. Didn't want to trade Brandon McCarthy and Joe Crede for A Rod or Carl Crawford.

because the Sox would be getting screwed if we made either of the those deals

And those people were idiots.

spawn
06-21-2010, 08:59 PM
And those people were idiots.

Word.

Tragg
06-21-2010, 08:59 PM
The Cubs end up with 2 young players and we end up with more tired veterans who are a little better than the ones we trade AND we take on a bunch more payroll.

Pablo_Honey
06-21-2010, 09:06 PM
I seemed to remember a few years ago. that many people on this board. Didn't want to trade Brandon McCarthy and Joe Crede for A Rod or Carl Crawford.

because the Sox would be getting screwed if we made either of the those deals
I think you've gotten the Sox and the Yankees mixed up because there is this thing called "payroll." McCarthy was a prospect who looked very promising at a young age. If he panned out, he would have been a good starting pitcher under a team's control until he hit the free agency. As for Crede, the guy was a homegrown talent as well as a fan favourite. You don't trade away guys like that unless he can no longer perform. Taking on a contract like A-Rod's would have massively crippled our payroll thus negatively affecting draft and free agent signings. Crawford would have been more affordable but ultimately he would have left as a free agent for more money. Not to mention, Crawford would have cost a hefty amount of top quality prospects, something we've lacked over the years.

tl;dr: We have financial constraints. We can't just take on large contracts without giving up large contracts of our own.

voodoochile
06-21-2010, 09:10 PM
Take Danks out of the trade, and I'd do it. I'm a bit of a gambler, though.

My thoughts are that sometimes you need to mix things up. I like Theriot a lot, and Quentin has looked lost at the plate now for the last season and a half.

He lost the middle of last season to injury too.

soxfanreggie
06-21-2010, 09:39 PM
The short answer - No.

The long answer - Not even the Cubs are willing to put up enough cash to make this one worthwhile.

With both Danks brothers in the Sox family, that could mean something when negotiating long-term with John. He is throwing the ball real well this year, and I wouldn't want to do something that would impact signing a starting pitcher like him. I think of the pitcher who threw 8 innings of 2-hit ball against the Twins in the one-game playoff, the pitcher who has a sub-4.00 ERA for his career, and the pitcher who has a 3.18 ERA right now and a misleading 6-5 record. I honestly wonder how big the impact of having Jordan in the organization will be on signing John long-term.

thomas35forever
06-21-2010, 09:54 PM
No way. The Cubs can keep all those guys.

pythons007
06-21-2010, 10:08 PM
For as bad as Quentin is hitting he still has quite a bit of RBI. So I'm not giving up on him and why would Danks be involved in any dicussions for what we are sending for the load of crap coming back in return. After the first month and a half fukudome takes the summer off. All the guys minus linebrink have a pretty high ceiling. Neither fukudome or theriot's ceiling are good. At one point fukudome was considered a 20/20 guy, what a crock!

veeter
06-21-2010, 10:10 PM
Quentin has been awful the last year and halfQuentin is hitting near .300 with RISP and might drive in 100 runs.

Craig Grebeck
06-21-2010, 10:13 PM
For as bad as Quentin is hitting he still has quite a bit of RBI. So I'm not giving up on him and why would Danks be involved in any dicussions for what we are sending for the load of crap coming back in return. After the first month and a half fukudome takes the summer off. All the guys minus linebrink have a pretty high ceiling. Neither fukudome or theriot's ceiling are good. At one point fukudome was considered a 20/20 guy, what a crock!
If Jordan Danks turns into Kosuke Fukudome, there are many out there who will argue he's far surpassed his ceiling. I'm one of them.
Quentin is hitting near .300 with RISP and might drive in 100 runs.
Stats with little meaning are (almost) meaningless.

What's he done the rest of the time?

pythons007
06-21-2010, 10:14 PM
Quentin is hitting near .300 with RISP and might drive in 100 runs.

I knew it had to be good! I had no idea where to find it and to be honest was too lazy to look.

veeter
06-21-2010, 10:18 PM
If Jordan Danks turns into Kosuke Fukudome, there are many out there who will argue he's far surpassed his ceiling. I'm one of them.

Stats with little meaning are (almost) meaningless.

What's he done the rest of the time?Well if he didn't get a hit, he made an out.

pythons007
06-21-2010, 10:18 PM
If Jordan Danks turns into Kosuke Fukudome, there are many out there who will argue he's far surpassed his ceiling. I'm one of them.

Stats with little meaning are (almost) meaningless.

What's he done the rest of the time?

A useless stat would be doubles hit on Mondays hit in the 7th inning or later in the month of June. Howver average with RISP is a viable stat. Why wouldn't it be?

veeter
06-21-2010, 10:20 PM
A useless stat would be doubles hit on Mondays hit in the 7th inning or later in the month of June. Howver average with RISP is a viable stat. Why wouldn't it be?I can't wait for this answer.

cws05champ
06-21-2010, 10:20 PM
We can make the stats look anyway possible to debate the argument

Fukudome 281 compare to Q 219 Avg. Fukudome also has a higher OBP and is a better defender.

Theroit is batting around 290 with a 330 OBP, while last time I checked Torres is 4-5 at Triple A and Danks is batting around 240.



IMO it just might be Q had a career year in 08 and will never be able to match those numbers again.
Torres has a 3.08 ERA to go along with his 5-5 record. Fukudome may have a better avg now but we'll see once he predictably tanks in the 2nd half. And my point still stands, you have four guys in your lineup that would be producing no power at all.

Craig Grebeck
06-21-2010, 10:26 PM
A useless stat would be doubles hit on Mondays hit in the 7th inning or later in the month of June. Howver average with RISP is a viable stat. Why wouldn't it be?
Because it isn't a repeatable skill. There is little to no correlation from year-to-year. Batting average is already highly volatile, rarely consistent, and based largely on inconsistent variables. Paring down the sample size only reduces its (already) questionable worthiness.

Good hitters will hit well all the time, not just a highly selective timeframe.

veeter
06-21-2010, 10:28 PM
Because it isn't a repeatable skill. There is little to no correlation from year-to-year. Batting average is already highly volatile, rarely consistent, and based largely on inconsistent variables. Paring down the sample size only reduces its (already) questionable worthiness.

Good hitters will hit well all the time, not just a highly selective timeframe.Guys like you take the fun out of baseball.

Craig Grebeck
06-21-2010, 10:31 PM
Guys like you take the fun out of baseball.
If critical thinking saps the fun out of something, good luck getting through life.

veeter
06-21-2010, 10:40 PM
If critical thinking saps the fun out of something, good luck getting through life.I think critically about things that are actually important in the big scheme of life. Baseball is a game. I don't need luck, I'm doing just fine.

Craig Grebeck
06-21-2010, 10:46 PM
I think critically about things that are actually important in the big scheme of life. Baseball is a game. I don't need luck, I'm doing just fine.
I like baseball. I like thinking about things. I have fun analyzing baseball. I have fun watching games. I have fun looking at box scores.

I love the ballpark. I love playing catch. I love trying to snag foul balls.

Saying I take the fun out of baseball because I think BA w/ RISP is a flimsy statistic is downright idiotic.

kittle42
06-21-2010, 11:31 PM
Saying I take the fun out of baseball because I think BA w/ RISP is a flimsy statistic is downright idiotic.

Perhaps, but it's hardly as bad as this trade idea.

Jpgr91
06-22-2010, 12:24 AM
Because it isn't a repeatable skill. There is little to no correlation from year-to-year. Batting average is already highly volatile, rarely consistent, and based largely on inconsistent variables. Paring down the sample size only reduces its (already) questionable worthiness.

Good hitters will hit well all the time, not just a highly selective timeframe.

There are sample size issues with every single baseball statistic, not just this one. Even though there is a lot of variance in applying statistics with a limited sample size, applying a volatile statistic to predicting future performance will increase the likelihood of an accurate result. Because of this alone, you can not entirely discount the statistic.

TheVulture
06-22-2010, 04:29 AM
Perhaps, but it's hardly as bad as this trade idea.

I don't know. This isn't an exciting trade that I'd jump all over necessarily, but would it improve the team? Someone mentioned Fukudome and Theriot's up-side is not great, but neither are Linebrink, Torres or Danks, really. Quentin's up-side has been looking upside down as well.

We'd be dumping Linebrink, that's a big plus.
Danks is a floundering prospect with questionable up-side.
Torres is a 28 year old AAAA pitcher.
Quentin is a potentially good hitter who has been struggling for a year and a half and is a bit of liability in the field. At best, not an asset defensively.

Cash is the key here. If you're talking about enough cash to offset Fukudome's contract for next year...

Fukudome would unquestionably be an upgrade to the OF defense and, while no Ichiro at the plate, has consistently been in the .370 OBP range. I'm sure Cub fans are disappointed at his output, but based on the last two years he would be an upgrade offensively for us compared to Quentin. Seems he would fit in pretty well at the #2 spot in the order which is a spot the Sox have had trouble with.

Theriot would be an all around upgrade over Teahen as a starter in the IF, and would probably be a better two hole option that what we have here as well. You could shuffle Theriot and Fukudome between the two spot and the bottom of the order as needed. Teahen would be an upgrade off the bench compared to Kotsay.

I'd throw Gorzellany in the bullpen, I'd imagine he could do a lot better there than Linebrink.

Really I don't see how this could be considered a bad trade unless you expect Quentin to rebound at the plate and Danks to develop into more than a prospect for fourth OFer. The defense would be considerably improved. The offense would be improved. The bench would be improved. The bullpen would be improved even if Gorzellany didn't pan out since we wouldn't be stuck with Linebrink any more. Someone mentioned just trading Linebrink for Gorz. Why in the world would the Cubs go for that?

Yeah, I'd do this trade. The only reason I could think not to do it was because its the Cubs. If this exact trade were to be made with the Astros I wonder how that would effect the consensus here.

Lillian
06-22-2010, 06:37 AM
What is wrong with this trade is that Carlos Quentin is the best hope that the Sox have for a big slugger in the middle of their order next year.
With Paulie not likely coming back, who do they have besides Rios, to provide any power? Moreover, Rios has never been a big power hitter, so I wouldn't count on him continuing to hit as many homers as he has so far. He's always been more of a doubles hitter. I'd expect both Rios and Beckham to hit a lot of doubles, but not that many homers.

Do you think that Viciedo or Flowers are really any more likely to provide that offense than Quentin? They are completely unproven.

If you trade Quentin you create another hole. The Sox would then need to find two power bats, one of them left handed. Those kinds of players are expensive. A guy like Fukadome can be found much more easily, and for much less money, despite the stupid contract that both Hendry and K.W. were both willing to offer him. K.W. is probably very happy that Fukadome chose the Cubs. I doubt that he is eager to take on that contract, and give up Quentin in the bargain.

You guys are funny. I remember during that fantastic 2008 season, when Quentin was tearing up the League, and this board was anointing him as the greatest. That's when he was given the nickname, "The Carlos Quentin", or "TCQ". I casually submitted a post here which simply suggested that it was too early to conclude that the Sox "stole" Carlos from the "stupid" Diamondbacks, who had given him up for Chris Carter.
Carter, who is still very young has become the A's top offensive prospect, and has had a couple of pretty impressive Minor League seasons for a kid.
Many on this board were completely dismissive, and critical of my comment. And now you're ready to trade Quentin for Fukadome!!!
How this has turned. Now I'm the one defending Quentin.

asindc
06-22-2010, 08:47 AM
Because it isn't a repeatable skill. There is little to no correlation from year-to-year. Batting average is already highly volatile, rarely consistent, and based largely on inconsistent variables. Paring down the sample size only reduces its (already) questionable worthiness.

Good hitters will hit well all the time, not just a highly selective timeframe.

I disagree. Some players, whatever the sport, perform better when there is more at stake, whether it be regular season games with RISP, a late-inning playoff game AB, or a two-hitter relief pitching stint in the heat of the pennant race. You are probably right about the many variables, but the key point to take from quoting this stat is that Quentin has raised the level of his game when it has been most important thus far this season. Of course, it can be discounted as an anomaly if he has not done this before or does not do it again in future seasons (meaning hit better with RISP than without), but unless that is the case the stat does in fact have meaning.

asindc
06-22-2010, 08:48 AM
What is wrong with this trade is that Carlos Quentin is the best hope that the Sox have for a big slugger in the middle of their order next year.
With Paulie not likely coming back, who do they have besides Rios, to provide any power? Moreover, Rios has never been a big power hitter, so I wouldn't count on him continuing to hit as many homers as he has so far. He's always been more of a doubles hitter. I'd expect both Rios and Beckham to hit a lot of doubles, but not that many homers.

Do you think that Viciedo or Flowers are really any more likely to provide that offense than Quentin? They are completely unproven.

If you trade Quentin you create another hole. The Sox would then need to find two power bats, one of them left handed. Those kinds of players are expensive. A guy like Fukadome can be found much more easily, and for much less money, despite the stupid contract that both Hendry and K.W. were both willing to offer him. K.W. is probably very happy that Fukadome chose the Cubs. I doubt that he is eager to take on that contract, and give up Quentin in the bargain.

You guys are funny. I remember during that fantastic 2008 season, when Quentin was tearing up the League, and this board was anointing him as the greatest. That's when he was given the nickname, "The Carlos Quentin", or "TCQ". I casually submitted a post here which simply suggested that it was too early to conclude that the Sox "stole" Carlos from the "stupid" Diamondbacks, who had given him up for Chris Carter.
Carter, who is still very young has become the A's top offensive prospect, and has had a couple of pretty impressive Minor League seasons for a kid.
Many on this board were completely dismissive, and critical of my comment. And now you're ready to trade Quentin for Fukadome!!!
How this has turned. Now I'm the one defending Quentin.

Only two people in this thread are actually in favor of this deal.

Rocky Soprano
06-22-2010, 08:49 AM
Was at a party over the weekend with both Sox and Cubs fans and we were all talking about this upcoming series against the Cubs.

Another Sox fan said he would trade Quentin, Linebrink, Carlos Torres, and Jordan Danks to the Cubs for Fukudome, Gorzelanny, Theroit and cash.

The Sox fan said he would send Beckham back to 3rd and would play Theroit at 2nd.

Would any of you do this trade?

Why do I get the feeling that this was your own trade idea.

Craig Grebeck
06-22-2010, 08:51 AM
I disagree. Some players, whatever the sport, perform better when there is more at stake, whether it be regular season games with RISP, a late-inning playoff game AB, or a two-hitter relief pitching stint in the heat of the pennant race. You are probably right about the many variables, but the key point to take from quoting this stat is that Quentin has raised the level of his game when it has been most important thus far this season. Of course, it can be discounted as an anomaly if he has not done this before or does not do it again in future seasons (meaning hit better with RISP than without), but unless that is the case the stat does in fact have meaning.
Give me evidence.

asindc
06-22-2010, 08:56 AM
Give me evidence.

Without looking up numbers, Robert Horry, Andrew Toney, Derek Jeter, Jack Morris, and Drew Brees are some examples off the top of my head.

pythons007
06-22-2010, 09:28 AM
What is wrong with this trade is that Carlos Quentin is the best hope that the Sox have for a big slugger in the middle of their order next year.
With Paulie not likely coming back, who do they have besides Rios, to provide any power? Moreover, Rios has never been a big power hitter, so I wouldn't count on him continuing to hit as many homers as he has so far. He's always been more of a doubles hitter. I'd expect both Rios and Beckham to hit a lot of doubles, but not that many homers.

Do you think that Viciedo or Flowers are really any more likely to provide that offense than Quentin? They are completely unproven.

If you trade Quentin you create another hole. The Sox would then need to find two power bats, one of them left handed. Those kinds of players are expensive. A guy like Fukadome can be found much more easily, and for much less money, despite the stupid contract that both Hendry and K.W. were both willing to offer him. K.W. is probably very happy that Fukadome chose the Cubs. I doubt that he is eager to take on that contract, and give up Quentin in the bargain.

You guys are funny. I remember during that fantastic 2008 season, when Quentin was tearing up the League, and this board was anointing him as the greatest. That's when he was given the nickname, "The Carlos Quentin", or "TCQ". I casually submitted a post here which simply suggested that it was too early to conclude that the Sox "stole" Carlos from the "stupid" Diamondbacks, who had given him up for Chris Carter.
Carter, who is still very young has become the A's top offensive prospect, and has had a couple of pretty impressive Minor League seasons for a kid.
Many on this board were completely dismissive, and critical of my comment. And now you're ready to trade Quentin for Fukadome!!!
How this has turned. Now I'm the one defending Quentin.

He may not have been a big power guy, but he was someone that was projected as a possible 30/30 upside kind of guy.

pythons007
06-22-2010, 09:29 AM
Give me evidence.

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz come to mind.

russ99
06-22-2010, 10:43 AM
What is wrong with this trade is that Carlos Quentin is the best hope that the Sox have for a big slugger in the middle of their order next year.
With Paulie not likely coming back, who do they have besides Rios, to provide any power? Moreover, Rios has never been a big power hitter, so I wouldn't count on him continuing to hit as many homers as he has so far. He's always been more of a doubles hitter. I'd expect both Rios and Beckham to hit a lot of doubles, but not that many homers.

Do you think that Viciedo or Flowers are really any more likely to provide that offense than Quentin? They are completely unproven.

If you trade Quentin you create another hole. The Sox would then need to find two power bats, one of them left handed. Those kinds of players are expensive. A guy like Fukadome can be found much more easily, and for much less money, despite the stupid contract that both Hendry and K.W. were both willing to offer him. K.W. is probably very happy that Fukadome chose the Cubs. I doubt that he is eager to take on that contract, and give up Quentin in the bargain.

You guys are funny. I remember during that fantastic 2008 season, when Quentin was tearing up the League, and this board was anointing him as the greatest. That's when he was given the nickname, "The Carlos Quentin", or "TCQ". I casually submitted a post here which simply suggested that it was too early to conclude that the Sox "stole" Carlos from the "stupid" Diamondbacks, who had given him up for Chris Carter.
Carter, who is still very young has become the A's top offensive prospect, and has had a couple of pretty impressive Minor League seasons for a kid.
Many on this board were completely dismissive, and critical of my comment. And now you're ready to trade Quentin for Fukadome!!!
How this has turned. Now I'm the one defending Quentin.

The best hope the Sox have for a big power hitter in the middle of the order next season is to acquire one. Adam Dunn would work nicely.

To expect Quentin to play like he did in 2008 is unreasonable. But since he's only making $3.5M this year (and would take little more or lose in arbitration unless we see a significant jump in numbers) I can see the Sox giving him another year to show them something more before cutting him loose.

Carlos may be able to do better since his problems are mostly mental, I don't see him giving us Dye 2006 production anytime soon.

munchman33
06-22-2010, 11:15 AM
Without looking up numbers, Robert Horry, Andrew Toney, Derek Jeter, Jack Morris, and Drew Brees are some examples off the top of my head.

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz come to mind.

Names are not evidence. You need to break down every clutch situation those players have been in, compare it to how the rest of the league fairs in similar situations, and then compare it to how all players produce in non-clutch situations. And THAT will only provide evidence if the sample size is large enough.

asindc
06-22-2010, 11:25 AM
Names are not evidence. You need to break down every clutch situation those players have been in, compare it to how the rest of the league fairs in similar situations, and then compare it to how all players produce in non-clutch situations. And THAT will only provide evidence if the sample size is large enough.

So I take it that you dispute that the named players have performed better in more important situations relative to their contemporaries? If so, we will have to agree to disagree. If not, then I will say that if you haven't noticed that the named players have throughout their careers performed better in clutch situations than they do otherwise, then it is probably not worth continuing a discussion on it.

voodoochile
06-22-2010, 11:32 AM
Names are not evidence. You need to break down every clutch situation those players have been in, compare it to how the rest of the league fairs in similar situations, and then compare it to how all players produce in non-clutch situations. And THAT will only provide evidence if the sample size is large enough.


Someone already did that. They are called splits. In reality, you wouldn't want to compare them to the numbers of other players in the league, but to their own.

I mean if a guy has a career OPS 50 points higher with RISP than he does over all, you'd probably say he does better in those situations. Maybe BA or SLG would be a better thing to look at because often a walk can be intentional or even mean nothing.

However, if a player consistently outperforms his career numbers in run scoring opportunities, you'd probably conclude he's "clutch". I thought Bill James already came to the conclusion that some players are indeed "clutch" so I'm a bit surprised to see people who value stats saying the opposite.

FielderJones
06-22-2010, 11:35 AM
We can make the stats look anyway possible to debate the argument

Fukudome 281 compare to Q 219 Avg. Fukudome also has a higher OBP and is a better defender.

24 RBI vs 37 RBI despite Fukudome batting 60 points higher. I really like the Fukudome clutch batting with runners in scoring position. :rolleyes:

Oh, and 24 runs scored vs 31 runs scored depite batting 60 points higher. That OBP really helps out when cross the plate less.

voodoochile
06-22-2010, 11:42 AM
24 RBI vs 37 RBI despite Fukudome batting 60 points higher. I really like the Fukudome clutch batting with runners in scoring position. :rolleyes:

Fukudome bats leadoff normally, so probably sees a lot less situations with RBI opportunities, especially batting in the NL.

Indeed a quick check of their stats shows that TCQ has batted 53 times with RISP and driven in 30 runs while Fukudome has only batted 36 times with RISP and has 20 RBI in those situations this year.

Their OPS in those situations is nearly identical 1.047-1.067 with both having BA>.300 and SLG >.600.

And no, I don't want this trade either...

Rockabilly
06-22-2010, 11:56 AM
Why do I get the feeling that this was your own trade idea.

Actually NO its not my trade idea. I would take Gorz out and would put in Marshall than I would be sold on this deal.

asindc
06-22-2010, 12:05 PM
Someone already did that. They are called splits. In reality, you wouldn't want to compare them to the numbers of other players in the league, but to their own.

I mean if a guy has a career OPS 50 points higher with RISP than he does over all, you'd probably say he does better in those situations. Maybe BA or SLG would be a better thing to look at because often a walk can be intentional or even mean nothing.

However, if a player consistently outperforms his career numbers in run scoring opportunities, you'd probably conclude he's "clutch". I thought Bill James already came to the conclusion that some players are indeed "clutch" so I'm a bit surprised to see people who value stats saying the opposite.

This might be a tidbit of what you are referrring to:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/

Craig Grebeck
06-22-2010, 12:25 PM
Derek Jeter's career OPS: .844
Derek Jeter's career OPS in high leverage situations: .844

asindc
06-22-2010, 12:33 PM
Derek Jeter's career OPS: .844
Derek Jeter's career OPS in high leverage situations: .844

How are you defining "high leverage situations?"

Craig Grebeck
06-22-2010, 12:38 PM
How are you defining "high leverage situations?"
How Baseball Reference defines them.

More often than not, the "clutch" players are the great ones. As far as baseball is concerned, at least, Robert Horry and the NBA is something else altogether.

asindc
06-22-2010, 12:50 PM
How Baseball Reference defines them.

More often than not, the "clutch" players are the great ones. As far as baseball is concerned, at least, Robert Horry and the NBA is something else altogether.

Can you provide a link? It's not that I don't believe you, I'm just curious about how BP defines it.

Craig Grebeck
06-22-2010, 12:56 PM
Can you provide a link? It's not that I don't believe you, I'm just curious about how BP defines it.

This should be a good primer.

Leverage Index

Within a season, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a give situation and situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LI's than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (late innings of a 12-run blowout).

The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml

TheVulture
06-22-2010, 03:58 PM
And now you're ready to trade Quentin for Fukadome!!!
How this has turned. Now I'm the one defending Quentin.

Nope. I'm ready to trade Quentin for Fukudome, Theriot, Gorzelanny and a Linebrink dump.

Stoky44
06-22-2010, 04:03 PM
How about Bacon, Jordan Danks, and TCQ for Soriano and Wrigley field?

TheVulture
06-22-2010, 04:14 PM
I honestly don't see how this lineup:

C Pierzynski
1b Konerko
2b Theriot
3b Beckham
SS Ramirez
LF Pierre
CF Rios
RF Fukudome
DH Viciedo/Teahen/Jones or Kotsay

Is not better than this one, both defensively and offensively:

C Pierzynski
1b Konerko
2b Beckham
3b Teahen
SS Ramirez
LF Pierre
CF Rios
RF Quentin
DH Viciedo/Kotsay/Jones

Replace Jones or Kotsay with Teahen on the bench and Linebrink with Gorz in the pen.

Then you either resign Konerko or acquire another power bat in the off-season.

Apparently, you guys are expecting Quentin to return to '08 form and Danks turning into more than a fourth OFer. I'm not. Otherwise, it's a no brainer.

Lillian
06-23-2010, 06:50 AM
Something else to consider is that Theriot and Fukadome have played in the N.L., primarily against the Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Astros and Cardinals.
Their numbers would likely be worse in the A.L., even in the weak Central Division. Moreover, Quentin would probably be better in the N.L.

Fukadome is what he is, but Carlos could become a "monster" again.
Again, no thank you.

Tragg
06-23-2010, 11:23 AM
.

Fukadome is what he is, but Carlos could become a "monster".
Again, no thank you.

That's a great point. Quentin HAS had a good year. Fukodome never has. Yes Fukodome's mediocre play is better than Quentin's current hitting....but so what. He's also 4 times more expensive.

And let's be clear...last year, Quentin's hitting was about the same as Fukodome's - Q's OPS was 10 points less. And that was in Quentin's bad year.

Finally, F's OPS is enhanced by his high walk rate. YOu bring these walk guys to the Sox, and suddenly that walk rate evaporates. Its not what Walker and Guillen are looking for.

TheVulture
06-23-2010, 07:55 PM
Quentin HAS had a good year. Fukodome never has. Yes Fukodome's mediocre play is better than Quentin's current hitting....but so what. He's also 4 times more expensive.

And let's be clear...last year, Quentin's hitting was about the same as Fukodome's - Q's OPS was 10 points less. And that was in Quentin's bad year.

I guess stellar defense in CF and a .370 OBP could be considered mediocre play. True, he is overpaid. That's where the cash and Linebrink dump come in to play. Between a few million and Linebrink's salary, that brings Fuku's salary to what it should be for the production he brings, about 4 or 5 million a year. You guys keep leaving out that Theriot would be a significant upgrade to the IF, as well.

OPS isn't a good comparison point in this case either. Who would you rather have, all else equal, a guy at the top of the order with a .400 OBP and a .350 SLG or a guy in the middle of the order with a .320 OBP and .430 SLG? Same OPS, but a .400 OBP is outstanding while a .430 SLG is below average. The guy at the top of the order is getting the job done, the guy in the middle is not.

It doesn't matter though, this trade won't happen whether it's a good one or not.

cws05champ
06-24-2010, 10:09 AM
You guys still want to trade Quentin for Fukudome? :D: