PDA

View Full Version : Garcia's woes


thomas35forever
03-31-2010, 09:24 PM
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100331&content_id=9034890&notebook_id=9035056&vkey=notebook_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws
So how long before everyone calls for Hudson?

tony1972
03-31-2010, 09:26 PM
It's spring training..I'd give him a while at least once the regular season starts. He has proven himself in the past.

oeo
03-31-2010, 09:26 PM
Not until he sucks in the regular season. Freddy isn't very good in low pressure environments.

jabrch
03-31-2010, 09:27 PM
Freddy is notorious for playing up/down to the significance of the moment. He's not a guy I'd expect to do well in ST. That said, if he sucks like this in the first month of the season, I'd have no problem pulling the plug if Hudson is lighting it up.

BainesHOF
03-31-2010, 09:29 PM
I'll start worrying if he's bad a month into the season. For now, I'm perfectly fine with him in the No. 5 slot.

Chicago5oooh
03-31-2010, 09:31 PM
I'm setting the over/under at 6 starts.

I'll take the under...

It's Dankerific
03-31-2010, 09:33 PM
I was assured last year that Freddy Garcia would be AWESOME this year.

I see the backtracking already happening before my eyes.

WhiteSoxFTW
03-31-2010, 09:39 PM
I'll take the over, but not by much.

konerko 14
03-31-2010, 09:39 PM
I hope Freddy can pull it together before the season

tm1119
03-31-2010, 09:40 PM
Its never too early to give up on a guy that if it wasnt for his past with us could very well be out of baseball right now. The guy hasnt been right since '05. His velocity is around 83-86 right now. I dont think Freddy, or most pitchers for that matter, can succeed there.

I would take the under on that 6 games if it wasnt for Ozzie giving him a long leash. Hopefully he doesnt cost us too many wins, because I dont think we're going to have many to be giving away.

Hopefully he proves me wrong though. It would be great if he could give us at least a 1/2 of a season worth of quality starts.

oeo
03-31-2010, 09:43 PM
Its never too early to give up on a guy that if it wasnt for his past with us could very well be out of baseball right now. The guy hasnt been right since '05. His velocity is around 83-86 right now. I dont think Freddy, or most pitchers for that matter, can succeed there.

If by past experience, you mean 2009, then yes. That's why he's here, he was solid at the end of last year for us.

His velocity has topped out at 88, which isn't any different than what he was doing last year. I don't think his shoulder will hold up all year, but I think he will give us more than 6 starts.

Chicago5oooh
03-31-2010, 09:48 PM
For the record, my over/under was for when people would begin calling for the beginning of the Hudson era.

pudge
03-31-2010, 10:29 PM
Freddy is going to have some UGLY games this season - he is not a location pitcher, he played his whole career playing off a solid fastball. It's not like he is someone who has had to learn how to live without velocity from the very beginning. A few solid starts at the end of '09 in garbage time when he's fighting for his career say nothing about how he'll start '10 or how he'll survive a full season. That said, we've had far worse nightmares in the 5th spot.

oeo
03-31-2010, 10:38 PM
Freddy is going to have some UGLY games this season - he is not a location pitcher, he played his whole career playing off a solid fastball. It's not like he is someone who has had to learn how to live without velocity from the very beginning. A few solid starts at the end of '09 in garbage time when he's fighting for his career say nothing about how he'll start '10 or how he'll survive a full season. That said, we've had far worse nightmares in the 5th spot.

No one said he would survive a full season, he probably won't. But Freddy pitching well in "garbage time" says a lot. He's always been a "big game" guy. Also, his first few starts were not even "garbage time", the Sox were still in the division race. August 18th, his first start, the Sox were 2 GB of the Tigers, and 4.5 ahead of the Twins.

He's been pitching with a low velocity for years now. His velocity was already down in 2006 which is why he developed his splitter. It's not like this is the first year. Freddy will be fine as long as the shoulder is fine.

Ranger
03-31-2010, 10:41 PM
I was assured last year that Freddy Garcia would be AWESOME this year.

I see the backtracking already happening before my eyes.


Who said that?

JB98
03-31-2010, 10:43 PM
I still think Garcia will be a serviceable No. 5 starter.

Lip Man 1
03-31-2010, 10:47 PM
Chris:

Many on the site in general terms were saying that the #5 spot in the rotation won't be an issue because it can be handled between Garcia and Hudson.

I was one of those (and you can look it up) who questioned that, given that Freddy has barely pitched in three years and that Hudson is an unknown (but talented) rookie.

I understood that with all the other concerns the Sox weren't in a position to spend money on a more reliable back end starter, but that didn't (and doesn't) mean I'm still not concerned.

Every site that I've read recently including the print edition of The Sporting News doesn't feel Garcia will last the season.

I hope this isn't another Colon / Contreras situation formulating.

Lip

JB98
03-31-2010, 10:51 PM
Chris:

Many on the site in general terms were saying that the #5 spot in the rotation won't be an issue because it can be handled between Garcia and Hudson.

I was one of those (and you can look it up) who questioned that, given that Freddy has barely pitched in three years and that Hudson is an unknown (but talented) rookie.

I understood that with all the other concerns the Sox weren't in a position to spend money on a more reliable back end starter, but that didn't (and doesn't) mean I'm still not concerned.

Every site that I've read recently including the print edition of The Sporting News doesn't feel Garcia will last the season.

I hope this isn't another Colon / Contreras situation formulating.

Lip

Colon and Contreras were BOTH being counted upon last year, though. That was a mistake by the Sox.

This year, they have only one question mark instead of two in the rotation.

JermaineDye05
03-31-2010, 10:52 PM
Chris:

Many on the site in general terms were saying that the #5 spot in the rotation won't be an issue because it can be handled between Garcia and Hudson.

I was one of those (and you can look it up) who questioned that, given that Freddy has barely pitched in three years and that Hudson is an unknown (but talented) rookie.

I understood that with all the other concerns the Sox weren't in a position to spend money on a more reliable back end starter, but that didn't (and doesn't) mean I'm still not concerned.

Every site that I've read recently including the print edition of The Sporting News doesn't feel Garcia will last the season.

I hope this isn't another Colon / Contreras situation formulating.

Lip

What 5th starters do?

mzh
03-31-2010, 10:55 PM
Let's put it in perspective: here are the 14 other #5 starters in the AL:

Phil Hughes
Wade Davis
Clay Buccholz
David Hernandez
Brian Tallet
Carl Pavano
Dontrelle Willis
David Huff
Kyle Davies
Scott Kazmir
Colby Lewis
Doug Fister
Trevor Cahill

Of course, in the long run I would rather have a guy like Davis, Buccholz, or Cahill no doubt, for 2010 and only 2010, I would take Freddy over all of them except for Kazmir, Cahill, Buccholz, and possibly Hughes. Of the other 10 guys, 6 of them had an ERA over 5, 2 weren't in the majors, and the other were about the same level as Freddy. Put into consideration that he's only 33 and is by no means done (as far as I can tell), I'm OK with him for now. And even if I'm wrong, we always have DH waiting in the wings.

JD05:
OTOH, Garcia might be a 4 or 3 starter on a bunch of teams this year.

Lip Man 1
03-31-2010, 11:02 PM
JD:

As I said back in October in my recap piece of 2009 on the main page, all the more reason for the Sox to get a leg up on the other teams in the league.

JB:

True enough statement.

Lip

DumpJerry
03-31-2010, 11:02 PM
I was assured last year that Freddy Garcia would be AWESOME this year.

I see the backtracking already happening before my eyes.
Your post is number 7. Two of the six posts can be construed as negative and they are not very negative. So, what are you talking about?

jabrch
03-31-2010, 11:17 PM
Let's put it in perspective: here are the 14 other #5 starters in the AL:

Phil Hughes
Wade Davis
Clay Buccholz
David Hernandez
Brian Tallet
Carl Pavano
Dontrelle Willis
David Huff
Kyle Davies
Scott Kazmir
Colby Lewis
Doug Fister
Trevor Cahill

Of course, in the long run I would rather have a guy like Davis, Buccholz, or Cahill no doubt, for 2010 and only 2010, I would take Freddy over all of them except for Kazmir, Cahill, Buccholz, and possibly Hughes. Of the other 10 guys, 6 of them had an ERA over 5, 2 weren't in the majors, and the other were about the same level as Freddy. Put into consideration that he's only 33 and is by no means done (as far as I can tell), I'm OK with him for now. And even if I'm wrong, we always have DH waiting in the wings.

JD05:
OTOH, Garcia might be a 4 or 3 starter on a bunch of teams this year.


Solid post MZH - I agree 100%. Garcia is amongst the best of the #5s - but still a #5. Things could go poorly or well - we just don't know. We do know this - things could be worse from a starting pitching pespective - just look at nearly every other team in the game. We also know that KW, if he can't find an answer in house, is willing to go get an answer if he needs one.

Chicago5oooh
03-31-2010, 11:22 PM
If we can get a .500 record on the days the sweaty one starts and more than 100 innings, I'll be happy.

Dibbs
03-31-2010, 11:34 PM
It scares me the originization doesn't have the foresight to know Freddy is not going to make it. We should have been happy with the couple somewhat solid starts he gave us last year and left it at that. I know he will be terrible this year. However, I am guessing he will cost us 4 to 7 losses before we make a move.

oeo
03-31-2010, 11:36 PM
It scares me the originization doesn't have the foresight to know Freddy is not going to make it. We should have been happy with the couple somewhat solid starts he gave us last year and left it at that. I know he will be terrible this year. However, I am guessing he will cost us 4 to 7 losses before we make a move.

The organization has his medical records. They know a hell of a lot more than WSI does about Freddy's future.

Dibbs
03-31-2010, 11:41 PM
The organization has his medical records. They know a hell of a lot more than WSI does about Freddy's future.

We could always place a friendly wager on that. Freddy will not make it, and it will cost the team a few games in the standings. I would rather take a chance on the unknown with upside (Hudson) than go with a pitcher that I am certain will fail.

I don't care what the medical records say, Freddy lost "it" a long time ago.

jabrch
03-31-2010, 11:55 PM
We could always place a friendly wager on that. Freddy will not make it, and it will cost the team a few games in the standings. I would rather take a chance on the unknown with upside (Hudson) than go with a pitcher that I am certain will fail.

I don't care what the medical records say, Freddy lost "it" a long time ago.


I guess the good news is we have both. We have Hudson and Freddy.

I know he lost "it" a long time ago. But you also know he had "it" last season. In his 9 starts for us, he had a 4.34 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. That's "it" for a 5th starter if he is able to do "it" for 25 starts. Skip him a few times, DL him once, whatever... but I can't understand the negativity around Freddy. He's a 5th starter. He's only making 1mm in base, plus incentives. And, to your point, Daniel Hudson can continue to get work in the minors, continue to develop, and someday be ready to step into a bigger spot in the rotation. Hudson is 22. He soared through the minors last year. There's nothing wrong with him getting a half season in the minors while we get everything we can from Freddy.

I would hate to cut Freddy and have to count on Hudson throwing 220+ innings this season in his first year in the big leagues.

doublem23
04-01-2010, 12:02 AM
Freddy sucks, but so do plenty of other guys on this roster, so if we suck again, it probably won't be his fault.

goon
04-01-2010, 12:09 AM
If we can get a .500 record on the days the sweaty one starts and more than 100 innings, I'll be happy.

Exactly.

HomeFish
04-01-2010, 12:19 AM
For the record, my over/under was for when people would begin calling for the beginning of the Hudson era.

So basically over/under on the first game in which Freddy lets a runner reach third base?

cards press box
04-01-2010, 12:24 AM
It scares me the originization doesn't have the foresight to know Freddy is not going to make it.

The Sox have a contingency plan -- calling up Daniel Hudson from Charlotte.

DSpivack
04-01-2010, 12:25 AM
I'm pessimistic about Freddy at this point in his career, but optimistic about Hudson. Thus, I'm not overly concerned with the 5th SP this season, especially not with the front four being so seemingly strong. Now, the pen and the offense, I'm more concerned about. But that's another argument for a different thread.

Frankfan4life
04-01-2010, 01:14 AM
It scares me the originization doesn't have the foresight to know Freddy is not going to make it. We should have been happy with the couple somewhat solid starts he gave us last year and left it at that. I know he will be terrible this year. However, I am guessing he will cost us 4 to 7 losses before we make a move.I share your concern after reading the article. The Sox generally give their pitchers plenty of rope. My fear is that Freddy will have more than 7 bad outings before he is pulled from the line-up.

It's Dankerific
04-01-2010, 01:25 AM
Freddy sucks, but so do plenty of other guys on this roster, so if we suck again, it probably won't be his fault.

aint that the truth. it'll be unforseen. or because of his shoulder, or a pick between bad options.

i said it last year, i dont want freddy on the team. Id much rather get a young guy experience as a #5

It's Dankerific
04-01-2010, 01:38 AM
I still think Garcia will be a serviceable No. 5 starter.

PS. Good job staying true to what you said last year, as I am. =)

Bring on Hudson! Let him learn like Danks did.

I mean the defending champs are going with a young dude, but we gotta keep the money in the Guillen family, somehow.

JB98
04-01-2010, 02:00 AM
PS. Good job staying true to what you said last year, as I am. =)

Bring on Hudson! Let him learn like Danks did.

I mean the defending champs are going with a young dude, but we gotta keep the money in the Guillen family, somehow.

If Garcia breaks down again, I won't have any problem going with Hudson.

Dibbs
04-01-2010, 02:39 AM
If Garcia breaks down again, I won't have any problem going with Hudson.

Well, he doesn't have to break down. He's already bad. We were lucky to catch lightning in a bottle with a few somewhat quality starts by Freddy last year. We couldn't leave well enough alone.

For those saying "If he just goes .500"" have no clue what they are talking about. He will never go .500 over the course of a year again. Heck, one of our "studs" Gavin Floyd finished the season with a .500 record last year.

JB98
04-01-2010, 02:46 AM
Well, he doesn't have to break down. He's already bad. We were lucky to catch lightning in a bottle with a few somewhat quality starts by Freddy last year. We couldn't leave well enough alone.

For those saying "If he just goes .500"" have no clue what they are talking about. He will never go .500 over the course of a year again. Heck, one of our "studs" Gavin Floyd finished the season with a .500 record last year.

By fifth-starter standards, I don't think Garcia is bad.

Dibbs
04-01-2010, 02:50 AM
By fifth-starter standards, I don't think Garcia is bad.

I guess we will see. I think his career is over, and he is a terrible 5th starter. I hope I am wrong. If I am right, I hope they are smart enough to pull the plug early.

JB98
04-01-2010, 03:01 AM
I guess we will see. I think his career is over, and he is a terrible 5th starter. I hope I am wrong. If I am right, I hope they are smart enough to pull the plug early.

Seven of his nine outings were quality starts last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=garcifr03&t=p&year=2009

If he can average six innings per start, with an ERA in the mid-4s, I think that would be fine. I know he's not the pitcher he used to be, but fortunately he's no longer being counted upon to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. And fortunately, the Sox have a Plan B if he fails.

I just don't think Garcia is anywhere near the top of the concern list when I look at this roster.

Corlose 15
04-01-2010, 09:54 AM
It scares me the originization doesn't have the foresight to know Freddy is not going to make it. We should have been happy with the couple somewhat solid starts he gave us last year and left it at that. I know he will be terrible this year. However, I am guessing he will cost us 4 to 7 losses before we make a move.

No you don't, just like Munch doesn't "know" Andruw Jones is going to be terrible this season, and the statistical argument that Garcia is going to be terrible has much less credence than the one for Jones. You're merely convinced that he is going to be terrible.

TheOldRoman
04-01-2010, 10:19 AM
I was assured last year that Freddy Garcia would be AWESOME this year.

I see the backtracking already happening before my eyes.I was assured for the last four years that Brian Anderson would be AWESOME every year.

I have YET to see backtracking on that.

I don't remember anyone saying Garcia would be awesome, but I think he will be fine in the 5th starter spot. I obviously don't have his medical records, but I am pretty sure the Sox had an idea of what Freddy would be able to give them when they brought him back. I am not going to even agree with "he won't be able to make it through the season" because nobody knows at this point. It may be very likely that he suffers an injury, but I think he will be respectable up until that point. Maybe the Sox are counting on him wearing down in July or so, giving them some quality starts until they feel Hudson was ready. Having Hudson waiting in the wings is not the same as the likes of Felix Diaz/Jon Rauch/Arnie Munoz. I don't think they wanted to pay a crappy pitcher $2-3 million and have him block Hudson when they felt they could get similar or better production from Garcia until Hudson was ready to step in.

asindc
04-01-2010, 10:29 AM
I was assured for the last four years that Brian Anderson would be AWESOME every year.

I have YET to see backtracking on that.

I don't remember anyone saying Garcia would be awesome, but I think he will be fine in the 5th starter spot. I obviously don't have his medical records, but I am pretty sure the Sox had an idea of what Freddy would be able to give them when they brought him back. I am not going to even agree with "he won't be able to make it through the season" because nobody knows at this point. It may be very likely that he suffers an injury, but I think he will be respectable up until that point. Maybe the Sox are counting on him wearing down in July or so, giving them some quality starts until they feel Hudson was ready. Having Hudson waiting in the wings is not the same as the likes of Felix Diaz/Jon Rauch/Arnie Munoz. I don't think they wanted to pay a crappy pitcher $2-3 million and have him block Hudson when they felt they could get similar or better production from Garcia until Hudson was ready to step in.

The proabable reason you don't remember anyone saying it is because no one here at WSI said it. It might have been said somewhere else, though.

russ99
04-01-2010, 10:31 AM
Can we see how players do in Major League ballgames that count before predetermining that they "suck"?

Sheesh.

I'm all for Hudson, but let's see what Freddy has in the tank. I'm not going to freak out about a spring training game. Peavy got lit up a few times too...

Besides, a month or two in AAA for Hudson can really advance his skils further. I think if he's put in now, we're rushing him up a bit.

NLaloosh
04-01-2010, 10:40 AM
By fifth-starter standards, I don't think Garcia is bad.


I don't think "isn't bad" should be the goal. It should be the best that we can do. Would Hudson do better? That's the question.

jabrch
04-01-2010, 10:44 AM
I don't think "isn't bad" should be the goal. It should be the best that we can do. Would Hudson do better? That's the question.

How about - he's a Top 5 Fifth Starter?

"isn't bad" was a response to "sucks". And it was the right response when looking at a 5th starter in my eyes.

MisterB
04-01-2010, 11:06 AM
Can we see how players do in Major League ballgames that count before predetermining that they "suck"?


Now where's the fun in that? :redneck

Tragg
04-01-2010, 11:24 AM
How has Hudson looked? He isn't exactly a slam dunk either.
I saw him pitch a few innings this spring and he looked okay.

BadBobbyJenks
04-01-2010, 11:27 AM
If he cant hit 89/90, hes cooked and Rdy needs to fix my sig and put in my boy Huddy.

Thatguyoverthere
04-01-2010, 11:33 AM
He's our FIFTH starter. If he can keep his ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range and go about 6 innings a start, that would be great. He pitched well last year against some pretty tough offense, why not give him a chance? He always comes up huge in "big" games too, especially on the road.

Chez
04-01-2010, 11:33 AM
To me, the bigger problem is relying on Daniel Hudson to be the man if Garcia falters. I had more faith in Brandon McCarthy in 2005 and Clayton Richard (or even Aaron Poreda) last season waiting in the wings than I do with Hudson. I just don't think Hudson is close to being ready to be a major league starter -- albeit a 5th starter. Hopefully I'm wrong.

DirtySox
04-01-2010, 11:38 AM
To me, the bigger problem is relying on Daniel Hudson to be the man if Garcia falters. I had more faith in Brandon McCarthy in 2005 and Clayton Richard (or even Aaron Poreda) last season waiting in the wings than I do with Hudson. I just don't think Hudson is close to being ready to be a major league starter -- albeit a 5th starter. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Aaron Poreda's secondary pitches weren't even close to as advanced as Hudson's. Not to mention Hudson has much better fastball command.

I do think Hudson will benefit from AAA time though.

Dibbs
04-01-2010, 11:56 AM
How about - he's a Top 5 Fifth Starter?

"isn't bad" was a response to "sucks". And it was the right response when looking at a 5th starter in my eyes.

Top 5 fifth starter? :scratch: The dude was basically out of baseball because nobody wanted him. He pitches a couple mediocre games last September and now he is a top 5 fifth starter? No way.

tstrike2000
04-01-2010, 12:11 PM
If they're concerned both with how Freddy will do and having to use Hudson too much in the beginning of the season, they could go out and try to get someone like Washburn. I know the likelihood of that happening isn't good because he'll probably cost too much or will be signed soon, although I know he just rejected Seattle's latest offer and is, at least right now, still a FA.

thedudeabides
04-01-2010, 12:12 PM
Freddy is always a different pitcher once the bright lights are turned on. It's hard to know what to expect from him, but if he can produce quality starts in 2/3 of his starts, as he did at the end of last year, he would be a good 5th starter.

The situation is very much akin to El Duque and McCarthy in 2005. We have an over the hill starter with declining stuff, but knows how to pitch, and a young good prospect as a backup plan. I hope Freddy can stay healthy and effective for a good portion of the season. Who knows Hudson may be up in the bullpen at some point. Either way, it would be nice not have to count on Hudson for 25-30 starts and pile up a lot of innings on his young arm.

I'm just glad they have some depth and 4 good starters, and 2-3 competent options for the 5th spot.

asindc
04-01-2010, 12:15 PM
Top 5 fifth starter? :scratch: The dude was basically out of baseball because nobody wanted him. He pitches a couple mediocre games last September and now he is a top 5 fifth starter? No way.

Mr. Pavano resents your implication.

jabrch
04-01-2010, 12:18 PM
Top 5 fifth starter? :scratch: The dude was basically out of baseball because nobody wanted him. He pitches a couple mediocre games last September and now he is a top 5 fifth starter? No way.


He had 10 starts with an ERA just over 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.2.

Have you seen the list of 5th starters out there?

You tell me who you want on that list....

Here's the Yahoo list of #5s.
David Hernandez
Tim Wakefield
Freddy Garcia
David Huff
Dontrelle Willis
Kyle Davies
Ervin Santana
Francisco Liriano
Phil Hughes
Gio Gonzalez
Doug Fister
Wade Davis
Matt Harrison
Brett Cecil

Yummy

Lip Man 1
04-01-2010, 12:36 PM
Jab:

There's nothing wrong with Wakefield and if Santana is back healthy along with Liriano those are pretty good pitchers regardless of where you want to slot them.

Curious who are the 5th starters in the N.L.

Lip

tm1119
04-01-2010, 01:00 PM
Let's put it in perspective: here are the 14 other #5 starters in the AL:

Phil Hughes
Wade Davis
Clay Buccholz
David Hernandez
Brian Tallet
Carl Pavano
Dontrelle Willis
David Huff
Kyle Davies
Scott Kazmir
Colby Lewis
Doug Fister
Trevor Cahill

Of course, in the long run I would rather have a guy like Davis, Buccholz, or Cahill no doubt, for 2010 and only 2010, I would take Freddy over all of them except for Kazmir, Cahill, Buccholz, and possibly Hughes. Of the other 10 guys, 6 of them had an ERA over 5, 2 weren't in the majors, and the other were about the same level as Freddy. Put into consideration that he's only 33 and is by no means done (as far as I can tell), I'm OK with him for now. And even if I'm wrong, we always have DH waiting in the wings.

JD05:
OTOH, Garcia might be a 4 or 3 starter on a bunch of teams this year.

Your point is valid, but did you happen to notice which teams you picked that had a better 5th starter than us? Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. The 3 teams that compete for the AL annually. I know thats not saying a whole lot, but very good teams usually dont have a glaring hole in their rotations.

mzh
04-01-2010, 01:08 PM
Your point is valid, but did you happen to notice which teams you picked that had a better 5th starter than us? Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. The 3 teams that compete for the AL annually. I know thats not saying a whole lot, but very good teams usually dont have a glaring hole in their rotations.
The thing is, we don't have a glaring hole in our rotation. Garcia threw 9 solid outings last year, which is totally different than relying on Colon and Contreras, who hadn't pitched consistently in over a year. Again, look at the list, and tell me that you'd rather have Colby Lewis, who hasn't pitched in the MLB for years, over a 33 year old Freddy who may have something left in him. The question is not whether will be great or terrible, it's whether he will fill his role as a 5th starter, which doesn't require the sort of pitching some of the people here seem to want from Freddy. Also, unlike last year, we have a legitimate backup plan in case he does fail at his role, as opposed to relying on a borderline prospect to fill in two gaping holes.

JB98
04-01-2010, 01:11 PM
I don't know why this is so hard for people. I already posted a link to Garcia's starts from last year. He was average-to-good in seven out of nine. That's just fine for a fifth starter. With that performance, he earned the right to start this season in that role again.

If he fails, we go to Hudson. Frankly, I think Hudson could benefit from another half-season in the minors. I do believe the kid is going to be a good pitcher for us eventually.

The starting rotation is not on my list of concerns entering the season.

tm1119
04-01-2010, 01:29 PM
I don't know why this is so hard for people. I already posted a link to Garcia's starts from last year. He was average-to-good in seven out of nine. That's just fine for a fifth starter. With that performance, he earned the right to start this season in that role again.

If he fails, we go to Hudson. Frankly, I think Hudson could benefit from another half-season in the minors. I do believe the kid is going to be a good pitcher for us eventually.

The starting rotation is not on my list of concerns entering the season.


Would you like me to link you to every bad MLB pitcher who has managed to string together a few mediocre starts over an extremely small sample size? The fact that Freddy has barely thrown 100 innings over the past 3 seasons should be the 1st red flag. The next thing that should be a huge red flag should be simply the way Garcia is throwing, and Im not talking about stats. He is NOT throwing a consistent 88 as someone else said. He may be topping out there, but of the 2 ST games I've watched of his he was sitting around 85 consistently. Sorry, but that has doom written all over it.

Im not saying Garcia cant somehow manage to be decent, crazier things have happened in baseball. But all of the talk that hes fine and there shouldnt be worry because he had 4 good starts last year needs to stop. The fact is that the odds of Garcia failing early are a lot better than him succeeding.

dickallen15
04-01-2010, 01:31 PM
He's our FIFTH starter. If he can keep his ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range and go about 6 innings a start, that would be great. He pitched well last year against some pretty tough offense, why not give him a chance? He always comes up huge in "big" games too, especially on the road.

Asking Freddy to go 6 innings a start, any 5th starter for that matter, is getting almost 200 innings out of him. That's unrealistic.

Spring Training or not Garcia allowed 17 earned runs on 23 hits in his last 8 2/3 innings. That's beyond scary, and reason to be very concerned. I can only imagine the comments if Linebrink pitched that poorly this spring, yet Garcia, a guy with 3 consecutive years of hardly pitching, it means nothing. That's crazy.

IMO, I think KW should offer some of the money he was going to give to Damon to Washburn, and see if he would be interested in becoming a 5th starter. There's an excellent chance the 5 starters in the rotation starting April 5th won't be exactly the same in July. Washburn had a knee problem when he struggled with Detroit. I think he'd be a decent #5. That could make Hudson a bullpen guy, which you might need when the fairydust on Santos finally reaches the ground.

Paulwny
04-01-2010, 01:37 PM
Seven of his nine outings were quality starts last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=garcifr03&t=p&year=2009

If he can average six innings per start, with an ERA in the mid-4s, I think that would be fine. I know he's not the pitcher he used to be, but fortunately he's no longer being counted upon to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. And fortunately, the Sox have a Plan B if he fails.

I just don't think Garcia is anywhere near the top of the concern list when I look at this roster.


With the uncertainty of the sox offense, an era over 4.50 could be a disaster for any sox starter.

thedudeabides
04-01-2010, 01:38 PM
Your point is valid, but did you happen to notice which teams you picked that had a better 5th starter than us? Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. The 3 teams that compete for the AL annually. I know thats not saying a whole lot, but very good teams usually dont have a glaring hole in their rotations.

They are also the teams with the highest payrolls in the AL. The Sox are already committing close to 40% of their payroll on the rotation. I think the approach they are using this year is the right one. Freddy may last five starts, he may last 25. Either way, he's cheap and there is a plan B and even a plan C. Plan B and C have have too often already been the 4th and 5th starters, recently. I like the depth they have.

Chez
04-01-2010, 01:43 PM
With the uncertainty of the sox offense, an era over 4.50 could be a disaster for any sox starter.

Excellent point.

JB98
04-01-2010, 01:50 PM
With the uncertainty of the sox offense, an era over 4.50 could be a disaster for any sox starter.

That's a separate issue entirely.

If Dan Hudson were in the Sox rotation, it's likely he would produce a mid 4s ERA as well.

JB98
04-01-2010, 01:53 PM
Would you like me to link you to every bad MLB pitcher who has managed to string together a few mediocre starts over an extremely small sample size? The fact that Freddy has barely thrown 100 innings over the past 3 seasons should be the 1st red flag. The next thing that should be a huge red flag should be simply the way Garcia is throwing, and Im not talking about stats. He is NOT throwing a consistent 88 as someone else said. He may be topping out there, but of the 2 ST games I've watched of his he was sitting around 85 consistently. Sorry, but that has doom written all over it.

Im not saying Garcia cant somehow manage to be decent, crazier things have happened in baseball. But all of the talk that hes fine and there shouldnt be worry because he had 4 good starts last year needs to stop. The fact is that the odds of Garcia failing early are a lot better than him succeeding.

He was hurt. Now, he's healthy.

Look, if he fails, the Sox will take him out of the rotation. I don't see the harm in allowing him to try to build on his success at the end of last year.

Most of this thread is just people howling at the moon needlessly. If Garcia loses his first start, I'm sure you'll all be here to say, "I told you so." I assure you I won't be changing my position.

Paulwny
04-01-2010, 01:54 PM
That's a separate issue entirely.

If Dan Hudson were in the Sox rotation, it's likely he would produce a mid 4s ERA as well.


That's what I said, ANY SOX STARTER, but it appears whoever is in the 5th hole may have an era over 4.50. The 5th hole will be a problem if the sox offense is so,so.

dickallen15
04-01-2010, 02:03 PM
Vazquez had a 4.84 ERA in 2006 and a 4.67 ERA in 2008 and was pulling in big cheddar. His apologists were saying he's a great #5 with those numbers. I think if Garcia or Hudson or whoever takes most of the starts after the other 4 starters puts up an ERA like that, it shouldn't be dissappointing to anyone. We cannot expect the guy in that slot to pitch like a #1 or #2 or #3. They will take their lumps probably more than occassionally. You just can't have them blow up too often and not get out of the 3rd inning constantly, because that will kill you moving forward.

The thing is, you can probably count on one hand the number of pitchers that have had the injury history Freddy has had for the past 3 years that have gone on and had a lot of success at his age. He's cheap for a reason. I don't expect him to last the season. I just hope he can eat some innings, keep the bullpen in the bullpen and give the Sox a decent chance to win games.

jabrch
04-01-2010, 02:38 PM
Jab:

There's nothing wrong with Wakefield and if Santana is back healthy along with Liriano those are pretty good pitchers regardless of where you want to slot them.

Curious who are the 5th starters in the N.L.

Lip


Agreed - I'd happily take Wakefield over Freddy. And while Santana and Liriano could be ok, they also could not. They are by no means a lock - since they both performed worse last year than Garcia.

Here's the NL

AZ - Mulvey or Buckner
ATL - JoJo Reyes
CHN - Gorzelany
CIN - Ownings/Wood?
COL - Hammel
FLA - Robertson
HOU - Moehler
LAD - Jason Schmidt?
MIL - Suppan
NYM - Niese/Parnell
PHI - Moyer
PIT - McCutcheon
SDG -Richards/Latos
SFG - Pucetas?
STL - Jamie Garcia
WAS - Garrett Mock/Scott Olsen?

Kinda makes you think a bit more positively about Sweaty Freddy...

thedudeabides
04-01-2010, 02:44 PM
Vazquez had a 4.84 ERA in 2006 and a 4.67 ERA in 2008 and was pulling in big cheddar. His apologists were saying he's a great #5 with those numbers. I think if Garcia or Hudson or whoever takes most of the starts after the other 4 starters puts up an ERA like that, it shouldn't be dissappointing to anyone. We cannot expect the guy in that slot to pitch like a #1 or #2 or #3. They will take their lumps probably more than occassionally. You just can't have them blow up too often and not get out of the 3rd inning constantly, because that will kill you moving forward.

The thing is, you can probably count on one hand the number of pitchers that have had the injury history Freddy has had for the past 3 years that have gone on and had a lot of success at his age. He's cheap for a reason. I don't expect him to last the season. I just hope he can eat some innings, keep the bullpen in the bullpen and give the Sox a decent chance to win games.

Well put.

oeo
04-01-2010, 02:50 PM
The thing is, you can probably count on one hand the number of pitchers that have had the injury history Freddy has had for the past 3 years that have gone on and had a lot of success at his age. He's cheap for a reason. I don't expect him to last the season.

I don't think the Sox do either, or for that matter, ANYONE. Freddy isn't likely to last all year (in fact, I don't think he will make it out of June), but we really don't need him to. Hudson appears close, so if Freddy can give us a couple of months to give Hudson more time, then perfect. This is something the Twins do almost every year with young pitchers. Bring in a vet to eat up some innings, when they think the young guy is ready, they bring him up and either release the vet or put him the bullpen, depending on how he's pitching.

It can't be compared to last year because a)We have a backup plan and b)Contreras and Colon were eating up TWO rotation spots, not just one.

russ99
04-02-2010, 12:17 PM
We'll find out real soon if Freddy can hack it. Here's his first five scheduled starts (pending rainouts):

4/10 - vs. Min (day game)
4/15 - at Tor
4/21 - vs. TB
4/27 - at Tex
5/2 - at NYY (day game)

All are good offenses, except Toronto and they're no pushover, especially in Toronto.