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Frater Perdurabo
03-25-2010, 10:41 PM
Let's compare the opening day rosters of the 2005 and 2010 White Sox. No one knew what greatness the 2005 team would achieve in March 2005; there were several question marks. No one knew Politte and Cotts would have career years, or that the rotation would be so great, or that Hermanson would have 34 saves but Jenks would finish the year as the closer, or that Dye would win the WS MVP for his great work as the #3 hitter. (While I predict the 2010 Sox to win it all, that's a pick of the heart, not the head.) The 2010 Sox are flawed. But we all saw warts on the 2005 Sox in March 2005, too.

Defense/hitting:
1B: PK v. PK: EDGE 2005 due to age
2B: Iguchi v. Beckham: EDGE 2010 as Iguchi was unknown
SS: Alexei v. Uribe: EDGE 2005 for Uribe coming off excellent 2004
3B: Crede v. Teahen: EDGE 2005 for Crede's better defense
C: AJ v. AJ: WASH
RF: Dye v. Quentin: WASH due to injury history of both
CF: Rowand v. Rios: WASH; Rowand's great 04 v. Rios' great pre-09 stats
LF: Pods v. Pierre: STRONG EDGE 2010
DH: Everett v. Jones/Kotsay: EDGE 2005 for Everett's strong 03-04

Starting rotation (not ranked in any particular order):
Buehrle v. Buehrle: WASH
Garcia v. Garcia: STRONG EDGE 2005
Peavy v. Contreras: STRONG EDGE 2010 (Contreras was a question mark)
Floyd v. El Duque: WASH
Danks v. Garland: WASH

Bullpen:
Closer: Shingo v. Jenks: STRONG EDGE 2010
RH Set-up: Politte v. Putz: WASH
LH Set-up: Cotts v. Thornton: STRONG EDGE 2010
LOOGY: Marte v. Williams: STRONG EDGE 2005
Middle relief: Vizcaino v. Linebrink: WASH
Middle relief: Hermanson v. Pena: EDGE 2005

Bench:
Harris v. Vizquel: WASH
Ozuna v. Nix: WASH
Timo/Gload v. Kotsay/Jones: STRONG EDGE 2010
Widger v. Castro: WASH

Analysis:

1. The rotations are about equal, on paper, going into each season;

2. The 2010 bullpen has significantly more experience, especially in the late innings;

3. The 2010 bench is better;

4. The 2005 infield defense was better because of Crede's obvious advantage over Teahen; Alexei is only slightly worse than Uribe;

5. The 2010 outfield defense is be better, as Rios is better than Rowand and Pierre is better than Pods; while only Dye was better than Quentin;

6. The 2005 lineup is stronger on paper than the 2010 lineup.

Bottom line:
The 2005 team has nothing to do with the 2010 team. I just wanted to point out that pants-pissing in March is pointless, because no one predicted the 2005 White Sox would win 110 games, including an 11-1 run in the postseason. But on paper, the 2010 Sox are not that different from the 2005 Sox opening day roster.

Discuss...

Brian26
03-25-2010, 10:48 PM
Cool thread. I only disagree on a handful....

Let's compare the opening day rosters of the 2005 and 2010 White Sox.

LF: Pods v. Pierre: STRONG EDGE 2010

Disagree on this. Pods in 2005 was only one year removed from a really good 2003 season. I'll give a slight edge to Pierre here.

Floyd v. El Duque: WASH

I'll give Floyd a slight edge here due to his age and injury history. El Duque coming into 2005 was a bit of an unknown commodity, even penciled in as the #4 starter.

Closer: Shingo v. Jenks: STRONG EDGE 2010I'll give the slight edge to Jenks, if not a wash. Remember that Shingo was the 2nd coming at the end of 2004 (the league hadn't caught up to the flipper yet). Meanwhile, Jenks is as big of a question mark as ever going into 2010.

Middle relief: Hermanson v. Pena: EDGE 2005I'd give this a wash. Hermy was an unknown coming off an injury in 2004. Pena actually had a very nice last two months of the season last year (sub 3.00 ERA).

Fun summary. Games aren't played on paper, but it's fun to talk about what might happen.

soltrain21
03-25-2010, 10:52 PM
I don't know if you can say Uribe is only SLIGHTLY better defensively than Ramirez. I'd say Uribe has a much bigger edge than that.

october23sp
03-25-2010, 10:53 PM
I agree with pretty much all of the points except that Frank Thomas was our DH not Everett or maybe I'm wrong.

lloyder
03-25-2010, 10:54 PM
Great post. I think that for the most part, your comparisons are spot on.

I think the main difference this year is that there's a nice mix of veterans who are getting older who have already tasted winning and a group of younger guys who see that and want it too.

I think Peavy is due for another Cy Young. His comments in the media, while possibly mistaken for arrogance and maybe poorly timed, show that he's REALLY hungry. And the reality is, he has the stuff to back up his mouth. So we'll see.

Rarely in sports does the best team on paper win. Skill certainly plays a factor, but luck and a bit of magic do too.

If some of these guys simply live up to expectations, combined with some of them having career years, I think a title is completely realistic.

Or, injuries could bite, and we could see a bullpen the likes of Bukvich, Prinz, and Day again. Who knows. It's shaping up to be exciting though. I don't think I've anticipated a season as much as this since '06.

soltrain21
03-25-2010, 10:54 PM
I agree with pretty much all of the points except that Frank Thomas was our DH not Everett or maybe I'm wrong.

Frank was hurt going into 05 and missed almost the whole season.

lloyder
03-25-2010, 11:00 PM
Frank was hurt going into 05 and missed almost the whole season.

And on top of that, Carl pretty much carried the team offensively for the first quarter of the season...

Brian26
03-25-2010, 11:00 PM
I agree with pretty much all of the points except that Frank Thomas was our DH not Everett or maybe I'm wrong.

Everett was the DH for 2/3+ of the season, including opening day.

Brian26
03-25-2010, 11:02 PM
And on top of that, Carl pretty much carried the team offensively for the first quarter of the season...

And, he got hot at the end of the season for a stretch, including two huge triples in back-to-back games during that big series at Comerica.

WhiteSox5187
03-25-2010, 11:06 PM
I don't know if you can say Uribe is only SLIGHTLY better defensively than Ramirez. I'd say Uribe has a much bigger edge than that.

'05 Uribe was certainly much better defensive than '09 Ramirez, but Rameriz I think has as much talent as Uribe, but like the Uribe of '06-'07, there are times where it seems like Rameriz just isn't paying attention.

DaveFeelsRight
03-25-2010, 11:14 PM
you are not allowed to be optimistic on here.

ode to veeck
03-26-2010, 11:06 AM
you are not allowed to be optimistic on here.

a gross misconception propigated by the conspiracies of the dark clouds

mzh
03-26-2010, 11:21 AM
Excellent post, 100% agree with most of it. A few of the issues I had:

I would definitely give Floyd the slight edge if not a clear edge. For one thing, Duque at that point could have been 100 years old for all we know, and had a large injury history. Also in general I think Floyd is a better pitcher. Floyd's 2008 was better than any full season's of Duque's, and even his mediocre 2009 was about on par with Duque for the majority of his career

jabrch
03-26-2010, 11:41 AM
Starting rotation (not ranked in any particular order):
Buehrle v. Buehrle: WASH
Garcia v. Garcia: STRONG EDGE 2005
Peavy v. Contreras: STRONG EDGE 2010 (Contreras was a question mark)
Floyd v. El Duque: WASH
Danks v. Garland: WASH



I'd lined the pitching up by slot in the rotation (not that slot is a meaningful role) so it is easier to compare for me.

2005 2010
1) MB 1) JP
2) FG 2) MB
3) JG 3) JD
4) OH 4) GF
5) JC 5) FG


I'd rank them like this - but you can argue most of them either way.
1) Wash
2) 2010
3) 2010
4) 2010
5) Wash

doublem23
03-26-2010, 11:54 AM
Bottom line:
The 2005 team has nothing to do with the 2010 team. I just wanted to point out that pants-pissing in March is pointless, because no one predicted the 2005 White Sox would win 110 games, including an 11-1 run in the postseason. But on paper, the 2010 Sox are not that different from the 2005 Sox opening day roster.

Discuss...

Then... isn't being overly optimistic for no reason other than trying to be optimistic pointless, too?

Should we compare the 2007 Sox "on paper" to the 2010 Sox, too? Not too many people saw that team falling apart. And they were probably way better than this one "on paper."

october23sp
03-26-2010, 12:55 PM
I knew Frank missed most of the year but I didn't remember if he started opening day.

NLaloosh
03-26-2010, 01:07 PM
Great analysis!

This confirms beyond all doubt that this team will go 11-1 in the playoffs - unless they go 11-0.

Bobby Thigpen
03-26-2010, 01:19 PM
Bench:
Harris v. Vizquel: WASH
Really?

khan
03-26-2010, 01:32 PM
1B: PK v. PK: EDGE 2005 due to age
2B: Iguchi v. Beckham: EDGE 2010 as Iguchi was unknown
SS: Alexei v. Uribe: EDGE 2005 for Uribe coming off excellent 2004
3B: Crede v. Teahen: EDGE 2005 for Crede's better defense
C: AJ v. AJ: WASH
RF: Dye v. Quentin: WASH due to injury history of both
CF: Rowand v. Rios: WASH; Rowand's great 04 v. Rios' great pre-09 stats
LF: Pods v. Pierre: STRONG EDGE 2010
DH: Everett v. Jones/Kotsay: EDGE 2005 for Everett's strong 03-04
Ummm.... In 2005, AJ was merely 28 years of age going into the season, whereas in 2010, he's 33 going into the season. How can the 2005 version of PK be better than the 2010 version of PK, but not the 2005 version of AJ v. the 2010 version of AJ?

Also, Dye's injury history isn't even in the same UNIVERSE as TCQ's. Dye had more quality seasons prior to 2005, whereas TCQ has only had one quality season. For that matter, TCQ has only had 1 season where he'd been relatively healthy. I'd give 2005 Dye the edge over the 2010 version of TCQ.

Why not give a "STRONG EDGE" to 2005 Crede vs. the hereto fore middling Mark Teahen? Crede could actually hit and catch the ball, too. I'm not sure Teahen can do either.

I disagree with the Pods v. Pierre comparison, in that it would be a "wash" at best. Pods cost the SOX El Caballo, while Pierre was basically a giveaway.

Everett/Thomas v. Jonesay should be a "huge, overwhelming edge" for Everett/Thomas.

Buehrle v. Buehrle: WASH
Again, age is a factor when comparing the two versions of Buehrle, IMO. He's put a LOT of innings on that left arm of his since 2005.

Closer: Shingo v. Jenks: STRONG EDGE 2010
RH Set-up: Politte v. Putz: WASH
LH Set-up: Cotts v. Thornton: STRONG EDGE 2010
LOOGY: Marte v. Williams: STRONG EDGE 2005
Middle relief: Vizcaino v. Linebrink: WASH
Middle relief: Hermanson v. Pena: EDGE 2005

On paper, Putz had been a strong closer earlier in his career, albeit injured. Politte was "on paper" in 2005, closer to being out of the game.

Vizcaino hadn't been NEARLY as craptacular as Linebrink has been in recent years. I'd actually give 2005 Hermanson a "STRONG EDGE" on paper over Pena.

Frater Perdurabo
03-26-2010, 02:13 PM
Should we compare the 2007 Sox "on paper" to the 2010 Sox, too?

Why not? Go right ahead. I look forward to your analysis.

CLUBHOUSE KID
03-26-2010, 03:17 PM
Why not? Go right ahead. I look forward to your analysis.

I'm still waiting for the 2007 vs 2010. Anyways, I thought the 2007 would be pretty good.

Frater Perdurabo
03-26-2010, 03:24 PM
Why not? Go right ahead. I look forward to your analysis.

I'll do it myself. Here is a comparison of the 2007 and 2010 opening day rosters on paper:

Defense/hitting
1B: Paulie v. Paulie: EDGE 2007
2B: Iguchi v. Beckham: EDGE 2007
SS: Uribe v. Alexei: EDGE 2010
3B: Crede v. Teahen: STRONG EDGE 2007 (Crede had a great 2006)
C: AJ v. AJ: WASH
RF: Dye v. Quentin: STRONG EDGE 2007
CF: Erstad v. Rios: EDGE 2010
LF: Pods v. Pierre: STRONG EDGE 2010
DH: Thome v. Jones/Kotsay: STRONG EDGE 2007

Rotation (not in any particular order)
Buehrle v. Buehrle: WASH
Danks v. Danks: STRONG EDGE 2010
Vazquez v. Peavy: EDGE 2010
Garland v. Floyd: WASH
Contreras v. Garcia: EDGE 2007

Bullpen
Closer: Jenks v. Jenks: EDGE 2007
Set-up: Thornton v. Thornton: WASH
Set-up: MacDougal v. Putz: EDGE 2007 (MacDougal had a great 2006)
LOOGY: Logan v. Williams: WASH
Middle relief: Aardsma/Buckvich/Sisco v. Linebrink/Pena: EDGE 2010

Bench
Cintron v. Vizquel: WASH
BA v. Kotsay/Jones: STRONG EDGE 2010
Mackowiak v. Nix: EDGE 2007
Hall v. Castro: WASH

Analysis
The 2007 opening day roster looks strong on paper, probably overall slightly stronger than 2010. But the 2007 team was coming off the 90-win 2006 season, and we all thought the Sox would be back in the hunt, and so our expectations were inflated.


What undid the 2007 team on the field was how the relatively inexperienced bullpen imploded after April, and then the injury bug hit a number of important players (Crede, Pods, Dye, Thome, Erstad), forcing a bunch of rookies and spares into the lineup (Fields, Terrero, Mackowiak, Gonzalez, Cintron). That in turn put more pressure on Paulie, Uribe and Iguchi, who pressed and saw their numbers suffer.

CLUBHOUSE KID
03-26-2010, 03:30 PM
I'll do it myself. Here is a comparison of the 2007 and 2010 opening day rosters on paper:

Defense/hitting
1B: Paulie v. Paulie: EDGE 2007
2B: Iguchi v. Beckham: EDGE 2007
SS: Uribe v. Alexei: EDGE 2010
3B: Crede v. Teahen: STRONG EDGE 2007 (Crede had a great 2006)
C: AJ v. AJ: WASH
RF: Dye v. Quentin: STRONG EDGE 2007
CF: Erstad v. Rios: EDGE 2010
LF: Pods v. Pierre: STRONG EDGE 2010
DH: Thome v. Jones/Kotsay: STRONG EDGE 2007

Rotation (not in any particular order)
Buehrle v. Buehrle: WASH
Danks v. Danks: STRONG EDGE 2010
Vazquez v. Peavy: EDGE 2010
Garland v. Floyd: WASH
Contreras v. Garcia: EDGE 2007

Bullpen
Closer: Jenks v. Jenks: EDGE 2007
Set-up: Thornton v. Thornton: WASH
Set-up: MacDougal v. Putz: EDGE 2007 (MacDougal had a great 2006)
LOOGY: Logan v. Williams: WASH
Middle relief: Aardsma/Buckvich/Sisco v. Linebrink/Pena: EDGE 2010

Bench
Cintron v. Vizquel: WASH
BA v. Kotsay/Jones: STRONG EDGE 2010
Mackowiak v. Nix: EDGE 2007
Hall v. Castro: WASH

Analysis
The 2007 opening day roster looks strong on paper, probably overall slightly stronger than 2010. But the 2007 team was coming off the 90-win 2006 season, and we all thought the Sox would be back in the hunt, and so our expectations were inflated.


What undid the 2007 team on the field was how the relatively inexperienced bullpen imploded after April, and then the injury bug hit a number of important players (Crede, Pods, Dye, Thome, Erstad), forcing a bunch of rookies and spares into the lineup (Fields, Terrero, Mackowiak, Gonzalez, Cintron). That in turn put more pressure on Paulie, Uribe and Iguchi, who pressed and saw their numbers suffer.

I agree with this. ONE MINOR thing is Cintron wash? I'm not sure he is = or better but thats it. I really liked how the 2007 team was formed and it went downhill really REALLY FAST and got really REALLY BAD.

KenBerryGrab
03-26-2010, 03:52 PM
I'll do it myself. Here is a comparison of the 2007 and 2010 opening day rosters on paper:

Defense/hitting
2B: Iguchi v. Beckham: EDGE 2007


Seriously?

Frater Perdurabo
03-26-2010, 03:55 PM
Seriously?

Iguchi was coming off an excellent 2005 and 2006, so we all expected him to have a great 2007.

As it turns out, Iguchi was disappointing in 2007. But we didn't know that in March.

russ99
03-26-2010, 07:46 PM
I don't know if you can say Uribe is only SLIGHTLY better defensively than Ramirez. I'd say Uribe has a much bigger edge than that.

Yeah, but don't forget Juan was a streaky hitter and a strikeout machine.

Right now Uribe has an edge, but Ramirez can be as good if not better defensively in a few more years.

soltrain21
03-26-2010, 07:50 PM
Yeah, but don't forget Juan was a streaky hitter and a strikeout machine.

Right now Uribe has an edge, but Ramirez can be as good if not better defensively in a few more years.

But we aren't talking in a few more years.

russ99
03-26-2010, 07:52 PM
But we aren't talking in a few more years.

Exactly. I'm not saying Ramirez is better this year. Just not so far apart.

goon
03-26-2010, 08:16 PM
I just put on my Cliff Politte jersey-shirt to read this thread.

Corlose 15
03-26-2010, 08:25 PM
Ummm.... In 2005, AJ was merely 28 years of age going into the season, whereas in 2010, he's 33 going into the season. How can the 2005 version of PK be better than the 2010 version of PK, but not the 2005 version of AJ v. the 2010 version of AJ?

Also, Dye's injury history isn't even in the same UNIVERSE as TCQ's. Dye had more quality seasons prior to 2005, whereas TCQ has only had one quality season. For that matter, TCQ has only had 1 season where he'd been relatively healthy. I'd give 2005 Dye the edge over the 2010 version of TCQ.

Why not give a "STRONG EDGE" to 2005 Crede vs. the hereto fore middling Mark Teahen? Crede could actually hit and catch the ball, too. I'm not sure Teahen can do either.

I disagree with the Pods v. Pierre comparison, in that it would be a "wash" at best. Pods cost the SOX El Caballo, while Pierre was basically a giveaway.

Everett/Thomas v. Jonesay should be a "huge, overwhelming edge" for Everett/Thomas.


Again, age is a factor when comparing the two versions of Buehrle, IMO. He's put a LOT of innings on that left arm of his since 2005.


On paper, Putz had been a strong closer earlier in his career, albeit injured. Politte was "on paper" in 2005, closer to being out of the game.

Vizcaino hadn't been NEARLY as craptacular as Linebrink has been in recent years. I'd actually give 2005 Hermanson a "STRONG EDGE" on paper over Pena.

People were actually pretty concerned about Dye's ability to stay healthy since he was coming off a broken leg in 2003. As for Quentin he's only really had one injury riddled season with the Sox, and one with the Diamondbacks. 2008 doesn't count because it was a freak occurence. Maybe Quentin has been injured more but it's not a different universe, and Quentin is perfectly healthy now.

As for Crede, you may actually want to look up Joe's stats before 2006 before you extol his virtues with the bat. There was a great deal of angst about Joe's bat coming into 2005 and he hadn't really established himself defensively yet either. In fact, Creded didn't really start hitting until after he came back from that broken finger late in 2005 and then carried it into the postseason and 2006 for his only "good" offensive season. His back then prevented him from building on that.

Corlose 15
03-26-2010, 08:41 PM
Also, I don't think Danks v Garland is a wash because Danks has already had 2 seasons better than anything Garland had done before 2005.

Frater Perdurabo
03-26-2010, 09:01 PM
Right now, it seems to me that two things would make the 2010 Sox a legitimate world series contender:

1. A third baseman who hits and fields better;

2. A legitimate #3 hitter.

Nevertheless, I am willing to give Teahen and Jones the first two months of the season to fill those roles.

Corlose 15
03-26-2010, 10:18 PM
Right now, it seems to me that two things would make the 2010 Sox a legitimate world series contender:

1. A third baseman who hits and fields better;

2. A legitimate #3 hitter.

Nevertheless, I am willing to give Teahen and Jones the first two months of the season to fill those roles.

2008 Carlos Quentin fills the 2nd role.

munchman33
03-27-2010, 11:23 AM
In what universe is the 2010 version of Juan Pierre better than on base machine of the past Scott PodsedniK? :?: 2005 Juan Pierre was better than 2005 Pods, but certainly not 2010 Pierre. He's slower and a worse hitter.

russ99
03-27-2010, 11:44 AM
2008 Carlos Quentin fills the 2nd role.

We need TCQ at #4 or the middle of the order is too weak.

I'd say 2007 Alex Rios fills that #3 hitter role better. But I'd take 2008 Alex Rios there too.

khan
03-29-2010, 11:13 AM
People were actually pretty concerned about Dye's ability to stay healthy since he was coming off a broken leg in 2003. As for Quentin he's only really had one injury riddled season with the Sox, and one with the Diamondbacks. 2008 doesn't count because it was a freak occurence. Maybe Quentin has been injured more but it's not a different universe, and Quentin is perfectly healthy now.
It isn't "just" the injury history between the two. Dye had MORE THAN one monster year before 2005. Quentin has had "ONLY" one monster year. We don't yet know for SURE if Quentin's "normal" year is akin to 2008 or not, because he's only done it ONCE. [I certainly hope so, that's for sure.]

But then, getting back to the question of health, Quentin has only had ONE relatively healthy season hereto fore. Dye had more than one healthy season leading into 2005. Healing from a broken bone is usually FAR easier than dealing with a torn labrum or plantar fascitis. A broken bone doesn't linger, while plantar fascitis can linger for years.

I maintain that 2005 Dye > 2010 Quentin, "on paper," based on both production history AND health history.


As for Crede, you may actually want to look up Joe's stats before 2006 before you extol his virtues with the bat. There was a great deal of angst about Joe's bat coming into 2005 and he hadn't really established himself defensively yet either. In fact, Creded didn't really start hitting until after he came back from that broken finger late in 2005 and then carried it into the postseason and 2006 for his only "good" offensive season. His back then prevented him from building on that.
Teahen hasn't exactly been stellar with the bat, either. And Teahen hasn't been even a STARTER at 3rd base. Crede HAD been a starter @ 3rd, and at a minimum, good with the glove. I disagree that Crede hadn't been "established defensively." Teahen has been none of these things.