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View Full Version : Justin Upton Signs 2nd Richest DBack Contract


EMachine10
03-03-2010, 09:16 PM
Six year, 51.25 million dollars. 22 years old.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4962429

soltrain21
03-03-2010, 09:33 PM
Six year, 51.25 million dollars. 22 years old.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4962429

And is already a monster.

Craig Grebeck
03-03-2010, 09:34 PM
21 years old with an .899 OPS. Yes, please.

jabrch
03-03-2010, 10:36 PM
First picks overall in the draft work out every now and then...This kid got the largest ever signing bonus in a minor league contract for a draftee...and now got paid after 1 great season.

While it is certainly possible that this works out, it is also possible that he is Chris Young. Upton had a great season last year - but to go all the way into 2 years of his FA, based on only one great year??? Feels very very risky to me. Josh Byrnes has a lot of job security (signed through 2015 and a part owner of the club) so I guess he can do stuff like this.

soltrain21
03-03-2010, 10:43 PM
First picks overall in the draft work out every now and then...This kid got the largest ever signing bonus in a minor league contract for a draftee...and now got paid after 1 great season.

While it is certainly possible that this works out, it is also possible that he is Chris Young. Upton had a great season last year - but to go all the way into 2 years of his FA, based on only one great year??? Feels very very risky to me. Josh Byrnes has a lot of job security (signed through 2015 and a part owner of the club) so I guess he can do stuff like this.

Justin Upton is very special. The next giant superstar in the league.

Craig Grebeck
03-03-2010, 10:45 PM
First picks overall in the draft work out every now and then...This kid got the largest ever signing bonus in a minor league contract for a draftee...and now got paid after 1 great season.

While it is certainly possible that this works out, it is also possible that he is Chris Young. Upton had a great season last year - but to go all the way into 2 years of his FA, based on only one great year??? Feels very very risky to me. Josh Byrnes has a lot of job security (signed through 2015 and a part owner of the club) so I guess he can do stuff like this.
Holy **** what a terrible comparison. How many guys have flopped after posting a .900 OPS season at the age of 21?

Well, unless you count making the HOF or being a surefire bet to, none.

WhiteSox5187
03-03-2010, 10:49 PM
Holy **** what a terrible comparison. How many guys have flopped after posting a .900 OPS season at the age of 21?

Well, unless you count making the HOF or being a surefire bet to, none.

There is no such thing as a "surefire bet" to make the HOF at the age of 22. It's a good deal, but he could get hurt tomorrow and never play again and then it doesn't look so good. But, that's just the nature of any guarenteed contract.

jabrch
03-03-2010, 10:52 PM
Justin Upton is very special. The next giant superstar in the league.

He may be. He was, after all, the #1 overall pick in the draft. He had a fantastic season last year. He's a talented ball player. I wish we had him - no doubt.

But they had loads of time before they had to buy him out all the way into 2 FA years. It feels to me like they rushed into this. There's no right or wrong here. As long as they are comfortable with that spend, they are ok. But they are in for about 25mm to CY through 2014 based on a his rookie year and his potential.

Sol - agreed that he is special...but why the rush? How much more expensive would he have gotten if they waited a year?

Just another example - take a look at his big brother... Why the rush?

WhiteSox5187
03-03-2010, 10:55 PM
He may be. He was, after all, the #1 overall pick in the draft. He had a fantastic season last year. He's a talented ball player. I wish we had him - no doubt.

But they had loads of time before they had to buy him out all the way into 2 FA years. It feels to me like they rushed into this. There's no right or wrong here. As long as they are comfortable with that spend, they are ok. But they are in for about 25mm to CY through 2014 based on a his rookie year and his potential.

Sol - agreed that he is special...but why the rush? How much more expensive would he have gotten if they waited a year?

Yea, it seems to me that waiting wouldn't have really hurt anything, but like their GM said, he is the type of guy you would seemingly build around. Of course, he would not be the first person to have an amazing year in his early 20s and then kinda flame out. But as has been said, he certainly appears to be a very very special player. It's a good risk to take.

Craig Grebeck
03-03-2010, 11:00 PM
There is no such thing as a "surefire bet" to make the HOF at the age of 22. It's a good deal, but he could get hurt tomorrow and never play again and then it doesn't look so good. But, that's just the nature of any guarenteed contract.
I was referring to players who OPS'd .900 at age 21 not named Justin Upton.

jabrch
03-03-2010, 11:00 PM
Yea, it seems to me that waiting wouldn't have really hurt anything, but like their GM said, he is the type of guy you would seemingly build around. Of course, he would not be the first person to have an amazing year in his early 20s and then kinda flame out. But as has been said, he certainly appears to be a very very special player. It's a good risk to take.

I'm sure the Rays are glad they didn't do the same with his big bro after a great rookie year... Talented kid...#1 overall pick...

But look at Corey Patterson's 2003...

Could be the next big thing - but look what Ankiel did his first two years in the field... again - not saying he's not a good prospect or even a good..hell - a very good...hell...even a great player last year. But to go 2 years into FA now? Just seems risky...

Glad it isn't my money or my team's money.

Craig Grebeck
03-03-2010, 11:04 PM
When Corey Patterson was 22, i.e. one year older than Justin Upton when he posted a .900 OPS, he posted the following batting line: .253/.284/.392.

His 2003 season that jabrch is somehow comparing to whatever Upton will do when he's 23 (which I'm guessing will be Hanley-esque) was as follows: .298/.329/.511. Good? Yeah. Great? Yeah, again, but only in 347 PA.

How in the holy hell did you just compare Upton to that guy?

HomeFish
03-03-2010, 11:39 PM
Remember when the Cleveland Indians locked up all their "young talent" by signing guys like Jhonny Peralta to huge contracts?

Jpgr91
03-03-2010, 11:40 PM
There is a direct correlation between age and career trajectory. In his first significant action Upton at 20 years old posted a .816 OPS in 417 PA. When he figures it out he is going to be ridiculously good.

Jpgr91
03-03-2010, 11:43 PM
Remember when the Cleveland Indians locked up all their "young talent" by signing guys like Jhonny Peralta to huge contracts?

I think his contract was 11 mil for 5 years, hardly the same thing. I think it is more in line to compare Uptons contract to Longorias, so far I would say the Rays are real happy with their decision.

jabrch
03-04-2010, 12:45 AM
I think his contract was 11 mil for 5 years, hardly the same thing. I think it is more in line to compare Uptons contract to Longorias, so far I would say the Rays are real happy with their decision.

As happy as they are that they did NOT do the same with BJ Upton...

It's a major crapshoot. So far, from signing Longoria, they got very little because he'd have been under control and cheap so far. While he is clearly a star, there are still lots of thing that can happen.

I'm not saying it is a bad idea to sign guys - but doing it so soon, and for so long is questionable to me.

Craig Grebeck
03-04-2010, 03:43 AM
You're questioning the Longoria contract? Far and away the most team valuable contract in the league? Ugh.

It's Dankerific
03-04-2010, 04:32 AM
you know what else could happen when you dont sign a young star to a long deal? he could decide he's been playing for cheap and will get his FA money. Then you can explain why your young star player is leaving the team because you wanted to wait another year or two, to pay him relative peanuts, on a guy already one of the best players in the league.

aryzner
03-04-2010, 07:28 AM
This doesn't have much to do with the conversation, but I happily reaped the benefits of Justin Upton last year in fantasy baseball when I picked him up after somebody dropped him early on in the season. It was wonderful!

PalehosePlanet
03-04-2010, 10:42 AM
You're questioning the Longoria contract? Far and away the most team valuable contract in the league? Ugh.

Agreed. Longoria's contract is absolutely terrible --- for him. I don't know what the **** possessed him to sign for so long and so little.

tick53
03-04-2010, 11:41 AM
I saw Upton play Single A ball with the South Bend SilverHawks a couple time. I never would have dreamed that this kid would go from South Bend to Easy Street like that.

Jpgr91
03-04-2010, 12:18 PM
As happy as they are that they did NOT do the same with BJ Upton...

It's a major crapshoot. So far, from signing Longoria, they got very little because he'd have been under control and cheap so far. While he is clearly a star, there are still lots of thing that can happen.

I'm not saying it is a bad idea to sign guys - but doing it so soon, and for so long is questionable to me.

It really is all about the team and their own risk / reward analysis. Teams with mid size payrolls need to take these type of contractual gambles to have a shot at competing. While it does come at a risk, the Diamondbacks have gained cost certainty in their payroll and will not have to negotiate with a player that may have all of the leverage.

ilsox7
03-04-2010, 01:34 PM
Agreed. Longoria's contract is absolutely terrible --- for him. I don't know what the **** possessed him to sign for so long and so little.

The dude was offered enough money to be set for life at age 22 with almost zero major league experience. Plus if he is as good as he thinks, he will have at least one more big time contract to cash in. Seems like a pretty good deal to me. Think of the downside: he gets hurt or does not succeed at MLB, therefore he does not make tens of millions of dollars. That's what he was thinking.

Craig Grebeck
03-04-2010, 01:58 PM
The dude was offered enough money to be set for life at age 22 with almost zero major league experience. Plus if he is as good as he thinks, he will have at least one more big time contract to cash in. Seems like a pretty good deal to me. Think of the downside: he gets hurt or does not succeed at MLB, therefore he does not make tens of millions of dollars. That's what he was thinking.
I'm thinking there was some organizational loyalty in there too. There's no doubt he would have made much more going year to year.

jabrch
03-04-2010, 02:00 PM
The dude was offered enough money to be set for life at age 22 with almost zero major league experience. Plus if he is as good as he thinks, he will have at least one more big time contract to cash in. Seems like a pretty good deal to me. Think of the downside: he gets hurt or does not succeed at MLB, therefore he does not make tens of millions of dollars. That's what he was thinking.

I agree 100%. For the player, these deals are awesome. Lock down 20mm+ before you play a half season? Where do I sign?

For the team, the Longoria deal was safer - since there were more options on the end.

The issue with the Upton deal is that it does equate to 50mm. And while Upton had a great 2009, there is still plenty of time before they buy bronze to make his bust. Lots can happen. Tampa is probably glad they didn't BJ Upton to a 51mm deal after he went .300/.386/.508 in his FIRST 540 PAs. (while Justin played about 600 ABs of less spectacular ball before getting this sweet deal)

Both Upton brothers have loads of talent - and could both be stars. Justin was a #1 overall pick. BJ was a #2 overall. BJ had a .300/.386/.508 rookie year - and didn't lock himself in like Longoria did. Since then, he has dropped to .241/.313/.373. He's still being paid well (3mm) but in hindsight, he'd have been better off taking a deal like his brother (which I don't believe a team like Tampa would offer) and he'd have been better off taking a deal like Longoria - which he may well have turned down. Either way, the DBacks went out and paid more money than I would have expected, and more money than I think a guy is worth at that stage in his career given that the team still holds all the leverage.

Let's see what direction his career goes...does it take the route that BJ took? Does it go Griff JR or Arod? Who knows. But I am glad the Sox make guys go out and do it for a few years before they pay em. You may end up paying more - or may end up losing em (John Danks?), but you are less likely to end up with a turdy contract. (Chris Young)

Craig Grebeck
03-04-2010, 02:11 PM
I agree 100%. For the player, these deals are awesome. Lock down 20mm+ before you play a half season? Where do I sign?
It will be 2015 before Evan Longoria makes $11m a year, and that's a club option. I don't think that's awesome for a player, considering that he could have been making that in 2012 or 2013.

For the team, the Longoria deal was safer - since there were more options on the end. You're comparing Upton's contract to the best contract of this generation.

The issue with the Upton deal is that it does equate to 50mm. And while Upton had a great 2009, there is still plenty of time before they buy bronze to make his bust. Lots can happen. Tampa is probably glad they didn't BJ Upton to a 51mm deal after he went .300/.386/.508 in his FIRST 540 PAs. (while Justin played about 600 ABs of less spectacular ball before getting this sweet deal)
YOU MAY WANT TO NOT CAPITALIZE FIRST 540 PAs, as that is absolutely false. Look it up.

Both Upton brothers have loads of talent - and could both be stars. Justin was a #1 overall pick. BJ was a #2 overall. BJ had a .300/.386/.508 rookie year - and didn't lock himself in like Longoria did. Since then, he has dropped to .241/.313/.373. He's still being paid well (3mm) but in hindsight, he'd have been better off taking a deal like his brother (which I don't believe a team like Tampa would offer) and he'd have been better off taking a deal like Longoria - which he may well have turned down. Either way, the DBacks went out and paid more money than I would have expected, and more money than I think a guy is worth at that stage in his career given that the team still holds all the leverage.Please show me a list of players who put up a .900 OPS at the age of 21 and then flamed out. I am begging you. Please.*

*Nevermind, will just let you know: they are all HOF or HOF-bound.

Let's see what direction his career goes...does it take the route that BJ took? Does it go Griff JR or Arod? Who knows. But I am glad the Sox make guys go out and do it for a few years before they pay em. You may end up paying more - or may end up losing em (John Danks?), but you are less likely to end up with a turdy contract. (Chris Young)Man, you love name-dropping Chris Young. Are you really questioning either the Longoria deal or Justin Upton's? Literally the only person I've seen who is not heaping praise on this deal.

mzh
03-04-2010, 02:19 PM
YOU MAY WANT TO NOT CAPITALIZE FIRST 540 PAs, as that is absolutely false. Look it up.

He had 548 PA's in his first full major league season. Before that he had 350 in two fragments as a call up. so NO IT IS NOT ABSOLUTELY FALSE.
Edit: also, before Justin's breakout season, he had a lower BA and 50 more strikeouts than BJ in about 200 more PAs.

jabrch
03-04-2010, 02:29 PM
He had 548 PA's in his first full major league season. Before that he had 350 in two fragments as a call up. so NO IT IS NOT ABSOLUTELY FALSE.
Edit: also, before Justin's breakout season, he had a lower BA and 50 more strikeouts than BJ in about 200 more PAs.


Regardless...my point stands that paying a guy 50mm for 1 good season is a highly risky proposition - the Dbacks obviously don't mind - that's why they are stuck with CY's deal. Good for them. Glad they have money to burn. Will they have it to throw at Webb this offseason? Otherwise they are going to really have issues if they have to trot out a rotation of Haren, Edwin Jackson and who knows what? They have a bunch of guys who are due raises the next few seasons... Maybe Hall/Byrnes/etc really have this kind of cash to risk...

Craig Grebeck
03-04-2010, 02:31 PM
He had 548 PA's in his first full major league season. Before that he had 350 in two fragments as a call up. so NO IT IS NOT ABSOLUTELY FALSE.
Edit: also, before Justin's breakout season, he had a lower BA and 50 more strikeouts than BJ in about 200 more PAs.
The OP said his FIRST 540 PAs. It wasn't. I think that's the definition of false.

canOcorn
03-04-2010, 02:53 PM
But I am glad the Sox make guys go out and do it for a few years before they pay em.

Like giving Viciedo $10M to play in the minors based off of video tape?

The Upton deal looks pretty good compared to that contract since he has actually accomplished something fairly special and it was at the ML level.

jabrch
03-04-2010, 03:14 PM
Like giving Viciedo $10M to play in the minors based off of video tape?

The Upton deal looks pretty good compared to that contract since he has actually accomplished something fairly special and it was at the ML level.


I don't know much about the Viciedo scouting/negotiation - so I can't comment much on it. I will say this - there is a considerable difference between what you pay for an international FA to get him (similar to recruiting a FA) and what you have to do with someone who is under control for 5 more years. Doesn't seem like an apples to apples comparison to me.

If you'd like a thread about the merits of signing international FA to these types of deals, I'd probably say I am opposed to that also. But I don't think that the Sox signing of Viciedo as a FA is comparable to the Dbacks paying a guy who they didn't have to pay to keep in house for several more years to at least watch him do it more than once.

Pablo_Honey
03-06-2010, 09:51 AM
Regardless...my point stands that paying a guy 50mm for 1 good season is a highly risky proposition - the Dbacks obviously don't mind - that's why they are stuck with CY's deal. Good for them. Glad they have money to burn. Will they have it to throw at Webb this offseason? Otherwise they are going to really have issues if they have to trot out a rotation of Haren, Edwin Jackson and who knows what? They have a bunch of guys who are due raises the next few seasons... Maybe Hall/Byrnes/etc really have this kind of cash to risk...
Upton also posted a .800 OPS in sufficient playing time in 2008. The kid has not only shown amazing potential but also fantastic results in roughly 2 seasons worth of playing time. This is a fantastic contract. Upton will earn less than 10 mil in each of what would have been his arbitration years, and then will earn less than 15 mil each year for 2 seasons. That's cheap. Is it risky? Yeah there is a slight risk, but is there any contract that does not come with a risk factor?

The Upton deal won't hinder with any of the salary raises D-Backs will have to deal with soon; in fact, it actually helps them out a lot because it's a much cheaper backloaded contract than what it would be if they waited it out. Don't forget Upton already has 2 years playing time. Next year, another season like 2009 and he will go Ryan Howard on their asses - boom Upton wins $10 mil in arb or sign something close to it. Now THAT would put some strain on their payroll.

By the way, it's unfair to criticize Chris Young's contract just yet. It's $28 mil/5 seasons invested into a good defensive centerfielder who can potentially go 30-30. He will be 26 next year and won't earn more than $5 mil until 2012. He may have been disappointing in 2009 but it's premature to say his contract is a bad one. I'm reserving my judgement until he repeats his 2009 in 2010.

TheVulture
03-06-2010, 04:12 PM
Holy **** what a terrible comparison. How many guys have flopped after posting a .900 OPS season at the age of 21?

Well, unless you count making the HOF or being a surefire bet to, none.

How about Cesar Cedeno? .921 OPS at age 21, .913 at age 22. Had a long and good career, but came nowhere near that production again. Of course, he was a gold glove CFer and a burner on the bases, but as a hitter - not close.

Tommy Davis at 23 - .910 OPS, next year .816 - after that 13 seasons without topping .782.

jabrch
04-29-2010, 04:19 PM
Small Sample size not withstanding - I wonder if anyone in Arizona is questioning the wisdom of giving Upton all that money so quickly when they had several years before they had to do it?

I know under 100 PAs doesn't mean much - and I am sure he won't hit this lousy all year - but if he doesn't pan out....

On the bright side, Chris Young is off to a nice start hitting nearly .300 with a near .500 SLG. Hopefully CY turns the corner.

UChicagoHP
04-29-2010, 06:45 PM
He's worth every penny, and then some. If for some reason or another he loses his eye sight, and as a result can't hit..it's still not a huge hit for the team, money wise.

doublem23
04-29-2010, 09:52 PM
On the bright side, Chris Young is off to a nice start hitting nearly .300 with a near .500 SLG. Hopefully CY turns the corner.

Yeah, we really need Chris or Gio or somebody to pan out eventually or teams are going to stop trading for our prospects. It's only a matter of time before they find out what we already know... they all suck!

:kneeslap:

jabrch
04-29-2010, 11:05 PM
He's worth every penny, and then some. If for some reason or another he loses his eye sight, and as a result can't hit..it's still not a huge hit for the team, money wise.

50mm? Not a huge hit? Wow...

jabrch
05-30-2010, 03:28 PM
.249/.319/.423/.742

I still don't get the rush....Maybe he ends up worth it - but couldn't they have gotten a better deal on him after this season than after last year - provided he finishes with similar numbers to this?

Craig Grebeck
05-31-2010, 01:14 AM
.249/.319/.423/.742

I still don't get the rush....Maybe he ends up worth it - but couldn't they have gotten a better deal on him after this season than after last year - provided he finishes with similar numbers to this?


I don't think they were planning on the best young player in baseball putting up a full season of sub-.800 OPS. Provided he bounces back, and the economy continues to, they would not have had a better deal.