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View Full Version : Odds to Win 2010 World Series, AL/NL Pennants


WhiteSoxFan84
02-07-2010, 11:54 PM
Here are the top 5 (favorites), bottom 5 (long shots), and noteables for each and the payout next to it (10:1 for example means if you put down $1, you'd get back $10 + your original $1 if you win)...

World Series
> Top 5
Yankees - 2.75:1
Phillies - 6:1
Red Sox - 8:1
Cardinals - 11:1
Angels/Rays - 15:1
> Bottom 5
Astros - 100:1
Royals - 100:1
Pirates - 100:1
Padres - 100:1
Nationals 100:1
> Noteables
White Sox - 20:1
Cubs - 20:1
Twins - 30:1
Tigers - 30:1
Indians - 60:1
Brewers - 50:1


AL Pennant
> Top 5
Yankees - 1.4:1
Red Sox - 4:1
Angels - 7:1
Rays - 7:1
White Sox - 10:1
> Bottom 5
Royals - 50:1
Indians - 30:1
Blue Jays - 30:1
Orioles - 25:1
Athletics - 25:1
> Noteables
Twins - 15:1
Tigers - 15:1


NL Pennant
> Top 5
Phillies - 2:1
Cardinals - 4.5:1
Cubs - 8:1
Dodgers - 8:1
Mets - 8:1
> Bottom 5
Pirates - 50:1
Nationals - 50:1
Padres - 50:1
Astros - 50:1
Brewers - 23:1
> Noteables
Reds - 13:1
Giants - 13:1

Rdy2PlayBall
02-08-2010, 12:01 AM
Where is this from and what exactly does it mean?? :?:

WhiteSoxFan84
02-08-2010, 12:13 AM
Where is this from and what exactly does it mean?? :?:

Sorry, odds are from SportsBook.com.

And these are the betting odds for each team to win each respective title.

Rdy2PlayBall
02-08-2010, 12:14 AM
Sorry, odds are from SportsBook.com.

And these are the betting odds for each team to win each respective title.So this place thinks the Sox are better than the Twins huh? Nice :D:

voodoochile
02-08-2010, 12:26 AM
So this place thinks the Sox are better than the Twins huh? Nice :D:

No, they just expect more people to bet on the Sox. Though they may consider the makeup of the Sox more likely to win in the post season because of the exceptional pitching. Wonder what the odds are to win the ALC or to be the AL wildcard.

Noneck
02-08-2010, 12:52 AM
No underdog status for the Sox in the central according this. They are the team to beat in the central.

thomas35forever
02-08-2010, 12:58 AM
How are the Cubs 8:1 odds to win the NL pennant?:scratch:

Noneck
02-08-2010, 01:02 AM
How are the Cubs 8:1 odds to win the NL pennant?:scratch:

It is a sucker bet and always is for cubs. Money comes in on the cubs even at crap odds.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-08-2010, 02:00 AM
No, they just expect more people to bet on the Sox. Though they may consider the makeup of the Sox more likely to win in the post season because of the exceptional pitching. Wonder what the odds are to win the ALC or to be the AL wildcard.

Not really. The White Sox aren't considered a "darling" by the oddsmakers. The Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox, off the top of my head, definitely fit that bill. But not the White Sox.

As for the ALC and other divisional odds, they should be out soon. Along with win totals for each team. I don't recall odds for the wild card being available before.

How are the Cubs 8:1 odds to win the NL pennant?:scratch:

Voodoo's statement would qualify for the Cubs. The Cubs are a team that gets action each and every year. So to cover their asses (incase hell freezes over), the oddsmakers lower the Cubs' odds because they know people will still bet on them. They probably should be 10:1 but truthfully, there are only 3 teams better than the Cubs on paper in the NL (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers). Looking at it even closer, one can argue that only the Cubs are actually better than the Dodgers. One can also argue that the Mets, on paper, are the 2nd best team in the NL (behind Philly).

WhiteSoxFan84
02-08-2010, 02:07 AM
FWIW, according to Bodog.com:

World Series
> Top 5
Yankees - 2.75:1
Phillies - 6:1
Red Sox - 6:1
Dodgers - 12:1
Cardinals - 13:1
> Bottom 5
Nationals - 150:1
Pirates - 125:1
Orioles - 100:1
Blue Jays - 100:1
Royals/Padres - 80:1
> Noteables
White Sox - 28:1
Cubs - 18:1
Twins - 24:1
Tigers - 28:1
Indians - 75:1
Brewers - 40:1


Huge difference between SportsBook.com (odds in my original post) and Bodog.com on a lot of these lines (except Yankees and Phillies which are dead on). Also, Bodog has no Pennants odds yet. Lastly, Bodog sucks.

DirtySox
02-08-2010, 02:23 AM
One can also argue that the Mets, on paper, are the 2nd best team in the NL (behind Philly).

Disagree completely. The Mets are a mess.

doublem23
02-08-2010, 02:40 AM
No underdog status for the Sox in the central according this. They are the team to beat in the central.

For the millionth time, sports book odds are not reflective of any sort of prediction about how teams will fare this season, they are solely reflective of how they expect people to lay money on the team. Ideally, they're trying to find a way to have an equal amount of money bet on each team so when one team inevitably wins the World Series, their losses are minimal. Obviously there is some correlation between expected success and Vegas odds, but that's only one of the factors considered, so to say Vegas expects the Sox to do better than the Twins because they have better odds is ignoring a lot of other data collected.

Noneck
02-08-2010, 02:59 AM
For the millionth time, sports book odds are not reflective of any sort of prediction about how teams will fare this season, they are solely reflective of how they expect people to lay money on the team. Ideally, they're trying to find a way to have an equal amount of money bet on each team so when one team inevitably wins the World Series, their losses are minimal. Obviously there is some correlation between expected success and Vegas odds, but that's only one of the factors considered, so to say Vegas expects the Sox to do better than the Twins because they have better odds is ignoring a lot of other data collected.

I know all that but tell me then what makes a team a favorite and underdog if not betting odds?

areilly
02-08-2010, 12:09 PM
I know all that but tell me then what makes a team a favorite and underdog if not betting odds?

Statistical odds and probable outcomes, which are not the same thing as betting odds.

Rohan
02-08-2010, 12:58 PM
Maybe it's time to start betting on the Sox again. I made quite a bit off of the entire 2005 campaign.

Noneck
02-08-2010, 01:12 PM
Statistical odds and probable outcomes, which are not the same thing as betting odds.

Where are these statistical odds and probable outcomes published? Who uses these? Don't opening betting odds factor in this information? Are favorites and underdogs based on sportswriters predictions, "expert" opinions or betting odds?

WhiteSoxFan84
02-09-2010, 01:59 PM
Statistical odds and probable outcomes, which are not the same thing as betting odds.

You are a bit off. I'm not an expert, but I can tell you that "statistical odds and probable outcomes" are PART of the formula oddsmakers use to set an opening line. They probably also factor in a set number which... you can kind of relate it to "beta" in stocks.

Maybe something like this:
Yankees, 1.80
Royals, 0.75

What this number means, is that if a team is over 1.00 they're a heavily favored team by the public. If they team is under 1.00, then they're a heavily "bet against" team by the public.

This is all just to explain what I'm thinking but it is also to show that stats, injuries, rest, etc., are ALL a part of the formula to set opening lines. The public then moves the line (along with injuries, player suspensions, etc.).

basilesox
02-10-2010, 12:18 PM
You are a bit off. I'm not an expert, but I can tell you that "statistical odds and probable outcomes" are PART of the formula oddsmakers use to set an opening line. They probably also factor in a set number which... you can kind of relate it to "beta" in stocks.

Maybe something like this:
Yankees, 1.80
Royals, 0.75

What this number means, is that if a team is over 1.00 they're a heavily favored team by the public. If they team is under 1.00, then they're a heavily "bet against" team by the public.

This is all just to explain what I'm thinking but it is also to show that stats, injuries, rest, etc., are ALL a part of the formula to set opening lines. The public then moves the line (along with injuries, player suspensions, etc.).

Completely agree with you here. This is very accurate. It is definitely influenced by Projected $ Volume bet per team, but they are also predicting how good the teams will be. This is for the initial line and then as people bet they start to replace their projecting $ volume with Actual numbers, letting the market move the odds to where they should be.

gr8mexico
02-10-2010, 12:37 PM
Well about a week ago my buddy was in Vegas and I asked him to put $40 on the White Sox to win the World Series.
The payout was 8 to 1.
I wish it was 28 to 1 like some of these sites are reporting.

WhiffleBall
02-10-2010, 01:01 PM
Well about a week ago my buddy was in Vegas and I asked him to put $40 on the White Sox to win the World Series.
The payout was 8 to 1.
I wish it was 28 to 1 like some of these sites are reporting.

A coworker was just in LV and told me the same thing, 8-1 for the Sox. The day he told me that I checked Bodog and they were 30-1. Pretty big difference.

FielderJones
02-10-2010, 11:52 PM
A coworker was just in LV and told me the same thing, 8-1 for the Sox. The day he told me that I checked Bodog and they were 30-1. Pretty big difference.

It looks like you're getting a pretty good overlay from Bodog.

TDog
02-11-2010, 12:02 AM
How are the Cubs 8:1 odds to win the NL pennant?:scratch:

Because people bet on the Cubs. The odds don't need to go longer to attract Cubs fans to bet on their team believing that this year will be their year.

Sports book odds aren't power rankings.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-11-2010, 02:11 AM
I did a little work with the 2009 MLB World Series odds.
You will see numbers like 1-1) for the Yankees.
The first # is where the team finished in the overall MLB standings in 2009.
The second # is where they stood in terms of best odds to win the 2009 World Series.


1-1) New York Yankees 2.5/1
2-5) Los Angeles Angels 11/1
3t-4) Boston Red Sox 7.5/1
3t-8) Los Angeles Dodgers 17/1
5-6) Philadelphia Phillies 11/1
6-22) Colorado Rockies 60/1
7-14) St Louis Cardinals 30/1
8-19) San Francisco Giants 40/1
9t-17) Florida Marlins 40/1
9t-23) Texas Rangers 60/1
11-12) Minnesota Twins 25/1
12-16) Atlanta Braves 35/1
13-9) Detroit Tigers 20/1
14-25) Seattle Mariners 100/1
15-7) Tampa Bay Rays 12/1
16-2) Chicago Cubs 7/1
17-15) Milwaukee Brewers 35/1
18-10) Chicago White Sox 25/1
19-20) Cincinnati Reds 50/1
20t-21) Oakland Athletics 55/1
20t-24) Toronto Blue Jays 60/1
20t-30) San Diego Padres 200/1
23-18) Houston Astros 40/1
24t-3) New York Mets 7/1
24t-13) Arizona Diamondbacks 30/1
26t-11) Cleveland Indians 25/1
26t-28) Kansas City Royals 150/1
28-27) Baltimore Orioles 150/1
29-29) Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1
30-26) Washington Nationals 150/1

johnnyg83
02-11-2010, 11:00 AM
Astros - 100:1
Royals - 100:1
Pirates - 100:1
Padres - 100:1
Nationals 100:1

Who would you take if you had to bet $100 on one of these teams?

Remember worst to first has happened ... one year 1991 I think both Atlanta and Minnesota went from last place to the WS.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-12-2010, 12:20 AM
Astros - 100:1
Royals - 100:1
Pirates - 100:1
Padres - 100:1
Nationals 100:1

Who would you take if you had to bet $100 on one of these teams?

Remember worst to first has happened ... one year 1991 I think both Atlanta and Minnesota went from last place to the WS.

I would go with the best pitching staff. The Royals have one of the best pitchers in Zach Greinke but the Astros have Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez who can be a very impressive 1-2. And their offense isn't bad at all with C-Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and company.

MtGrnwdSoxFan
02-12-2010, 01:57 AM
I would go with the best pitching staff. The Royals have one of the best pitchers in Zach Greinke but the Astros have Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez who can be a very impressive 1-2. And their offense isn't bad at all with C-Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and company.

Yeah, if I had to pick, I'd pick the Astros too. I don't think they're as long of a shot as the other teams on there.