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View Full Version : The Case FOR Andruw Jones and why the offense isn't doomed


guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 03:37 PM
The general sentiment of the whole board seems to be that Andruw Jones sucks and ought not get many plate appearances this coming season.

Allow me to present a counterargument, and for argument's sake, let me use 2007 and 2009 as the evidence base and exclude 2008 due to injuries and a truly horrible year that I do not think is strong indication of what Andruw Jones could do (especially at the Cell).

Some things are contingent upon Andruw Jones being in better shape than he has been over the past few years, but the offensive analysis does not take this into account. However, I will reference it with the further thoughts.

Oh, and I understand that the majority of you will rip me apart, but if you disagree, please give some analysis. I think that many are looking at just Jones' dismal batting average instead of the overall picture.

The Numbers (Offense):
Andruw Jones in 2007:


Age: 30
Plate Appearances/At-Bats: 659/572
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .222/.311/.413/.724
HR/totalXBH: 26/55
RBI: 94
.800 OPS with RISP
138 K

Andruw Jones in 2009:


Age: 32
Plate Appearances/At-Bats: 331/281
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .213/.323/.459/.782
HR/totalXBH: 17/35
RBI: 43
.796 OPS with RISP
72 K

Andruw Jones in 2009 (spread to 500 AB):


Age: 32
Plate Appearances/At-Bats: 589/500
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .213/.323/.459/.782
HR/totalXBH: 30/62
RBI: 77
.796 OPS with RISP
128 K

In other words, if you take Andruw Jones 2009 and put him over 500 AB, you get similar production to what Jermaine Dye or Carlos Quentin (if given 500 AB) gave in '09, or better than what Carl Everett gave in '05 out of the DH slot.

Expectation Andruw Jones in 2010 (500 AB):


Age: 33
Plate Appearances/At-Bats: 589/500
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .218/.320/.455/.775
HR/totalXBH: 28/60
RBI: 84
.800 OPS with RISP
130 K

Not great by any stretch, but still quite productive. Damon or Thome would probably bring more to the offensive table, but neither is a qualified backup at CF at this stage of their careers, and Thome would have inhibited the rest of the team.

PED:
It's very reasonable for any observer to attribute Jones' sudden drop in production to more stringent testing of PED. I happen to think this is quite possible. However, a counterargument is that his weight gain (which he claims was intentional) was a big part of why his production dropped off. If Jones is in tremendous shape, we could see his bat speed improve. This also would mean that his mobility in the field would greatly increase. It's not so long ago that he won a GG, and if he is in shape, he becomes the best defensive OF on the roster.

Also, if his $500K salary is any factor, the guy is going to play this season as if he has something to prove so that he can get paid come next off season.

What does it all mean in the big picture?:

Looking at the team as a whole, let's compare the current roster to the 2008 roster (which won 88 out of 162 games and the tiebreaker to win the division).

The starting pitching should definitely be much better, as Peavy is essentially replacing Javy Vazquez while Garcia-Contreras should be a wash and Danks/Floyd should get a little better (I sort of expect one of them to really break out this year, TBH). The bullpen should also be better due to the lack of Boone Logan. It also depends on which Linebrink we get this year.

Offensively, that 2008 team had only four players with OPS over .790:


Alexei Ramirez (.792)
Jim Thome (.865)
Jermaine Dye (.885)
Carlos Quentin (.965)

The 2010 squad should legitimately have five players accomplish that as well:


Gordon Beckham (I expect him to put around an .840-.850 OPS).
Carlos Quentin (if healthy, anything from .850-.970)
Paul Konerko (.840)
Alex Rios (if 2009 was just a fluke down year, then .820 or so)
Andruw Jones (.795)
Possible: Alexei Ramirez

If you go through a position by position run down of 2008 offensive output versus 2010 expected:


C: Pierzynski 10 vs. Pierzynski 08 should be a wash.
1B: Konerko 10 >> Konerko 08, barring another horrible down year.
2B: Beckham 10 >> Ramirez 08. By a decent margin.
3B: Teahen 10 > Crede/Uribe/Fields/Ozuna 08
SS: Ramirez 10>= Cabrera 08
LF: Pierre 10 << Quentin 08
CF: Rios 10 > Swisher/Griffey 08
RF: Quentin 10 >= Dye 08
DH: Jones/Kotsay 10 << Thome 08. Decent margin also.
Bench: Jones/Kotsay/Vizquel/Castro/Nix 10 > Ozuna/Anderson/Uribe/Hall/Wise.

When you factor in the fielding improvements (Teahen vs. Crede/Fields, Rios/Jones vs. Swisher/Wise/Anderson, Vizquel vs. Ozuna/Uribe), the added mobility of this team, and the hopeful improvement in situational hitting, it makes me think that this offense should be considerably better than the 2008 offense.

Of course, this is all on paper.

But I do believe that the failures in 2009 were the result of down years (or down halves), injuries, and/or lack of progression from Fields, Rios, Quentin, Dye, Linebrink, and Contreras (!).

Oh, and for right now, I do think that the team right now, plus another decent LH reliever, can win it all with the luck of good health.

And if the Sox do not make the playoffs, it will be because Rios, Konerko, and/or Quentin falter big time. Not because of Andruw Jones.

Craig Grebeck
01-29-2010, 03:42 PM
And the best case against Andruw lies in his splits:

Away: .199/.294/.411

2nd Half: .185/.310/.333

It amazes me the lengths people will go to promote Andruw and approve of a sub-.220 batting average, but the thought of Nick Swisher playing on the southside made many ill.

And, for the record, I'd put Pierre in CF to give Rios a rest rather than Jones.

Thome_Fan
01-29-2010, 03:46 PM
Pretty well laid out argument. I have to agree. Like you pointed out, at a few positions we definitely are worse off, but with the majority of boosts that we have, it should more than make up for that.

Edit: Still not saying I wouldn't mind having someone with a better average than Jones...

guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 03:48 PM
If the Sox were to sign Damon, I wouldn't be disappointed by any means. Don't get me wrong. I just don't think that Andruw Jones is so horrible.

voodoochile
01-29-2010, 03:49 PM
If the Sox were to sign Damon, I wouldn't be disappointed by any means. Don't get me wrong. I just don't think that Andruw Jones is so horrible.

I think he'll hit 25 HR and 25 2B if he gets 500 AB and can see that being fine in the 6 or 7 hole no matter what other production he gives...

guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 03:50 PM
And the best case against Andruw lies in his splits:

Away: .199/.294/.411

2nd Half: .185/.310/.333

It amazes me the lengths people will go to promote Andruw and approve of a sub-.220 batting average, but the thought of Nick Swisher playing on the southside made many ill.

And, for the record, I'd put Pierre in CF to give Rios a rest rather than Jones.

Swisher's attitude and the fact that he was put in CF pissed me off more than anything else.

guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 03:51 PM
I think he'll hit 25 HR and 25 2B if he gets 500 AB and can see that being fine in the 6 or 7 hole no matter what other production he gives...

I'm guessing you're referring to Jones? If so, I totally agree.

voodoochile
01-29-2010, 03:51 PM
I'm guessing you're referring to Jones? If so, I totally agree.

Yes, I was.

dickallen15
01-29-2010, 04:10 PM
What would give anyone the impression Jones can play and play effectively full-time? He's pretty much been on the downswing for 3 years. He was playing for a huge payday his final year in ATL, lost a lot of weight and hit .220. He got a nice contract with LA, celebrated by downing cheesburgers and might have been the biggest FA bust ever. He gets another chance with TEX, again playing for a contract, is in better shape than he was in LA but after a fast start, struggled and got hurt again. I suppose there is a chance he could be the Andruw Jones who played in ATL up in the early 2000's but realistically he is not.

JermaineDye05
01-29-2010, 04:20 PM
And the best case against Andruw lies in his splits:

Away: .199/.294/.411

2nd Half: .185/.310/.333

It amazes me the lengths people will go to promote Andruw and approve of a sub-.220 batting average, but the thought of Nick Swisher playing on the southside made many ill.

And, for the record, I'd put Pierre in CF to give Rios a rest rather than Jones.

Players have resurrected their careers before.

I'm not saying that all of a sudden Andruw Jones will stop being terrible and become at least decent. I'm just saying that it's happened before.

The fact is we signed Jones for practically nothing which means that the Sox must not have thought much of him either when they signed him. I'm sure they'll be as surprised as anyone if he starts playing decent baseball again.

What I like is that it sounds as if, from what Kenny has said, is that Jones has come to this team with a thing to prove. I say let him at least try to prove that he can still play baseball at a mediocre level at the very least.

Goodman6
01-29-2010, 04:45 PM
C: Pierzynski 10 vs. Pierzynski 08 should be a wash.
1B: Konerko 10 >> Konerko 08, barring another horrible down year.
2B: Beckham 10 >> Ramirez 08. By a decent margin.
3B: Teahen 10 > Crede/Uribe/Fields/Ozuna 08
SS: Ramirez 10>= Cabrera 08
LF: Pierre 10 << Quentin 08
CF: Rios 10 > Swisher/Griffey 08
RF: Quentin 10 >= Dye 08
DH: Jones/Kotsay 10 << Thome 08. Decent margin also.
Bench: Jones/Kotsay/Vizquel/Castro/Nix 10 > Ozuna/Anderson/Uribe/Hall/Wise.

I hope you are right but I think you are grossly underestimating Alexei's contribution to the team in 2008. He was pure clutch most of the year as, if I recall correctly, he had the best BA with runners in scoring position on the team, by far. For a good part of the year, especially after Carlos went down to injury, Alexei was the best hitter on the team. Just as one example, if it wasn't for Alexei's clutch grand slam in game 162 against Detroit, there would not have been a game 163. Thus, if you think Gordon in 2010 is going to outperform 2008 Alexei by a decent margin, either (A) you are going to be disappointed or (B) Gordon is going to have a near MVP season. Hey, I really like Gordon but your expectations may be a little high. I would be elated if Gordon just had a year, offensively, equal to Alexei's year in 2008. I'll take the 4 grand slams and the great BA with RISP.

Zisk77
01-29-2010, 04:49 PM
Jones is low risk high reward....whats the chances of high reward, no one really knows and one argument is as good as another...even Grebeck's :o:

psyclonis
01-29-2010, 05:13 PM
Having your DH in the 9 slot seems silly when there are/were cheap FAs out there that are better than most of our hitters...

Solution? Damon.

JermaineDye05
01-29-2010, 05:19 PM
Having your DH in the 9 slot seems silly when there are/were cheap FAs out there that are better than most of our hitters...

Solution? Damon.

I think you just contradicted yourself.

DumpJerry
01-29-2010, 05:20 PM
Andruw Jones is the 2010 White Sox' Carl Everett.

DickAllen72
01-29-2010, 05:24 PM
Andruw Jones is the 2010 White Sox' Carl Everett.
I wish!

34 Inch Stick
01-29-2010, 05:34 PM
I think you are wrong in limiting it to the general sentiment of the entire board. It is the sentiment of the entire league as evidenced by his league minimum contract and a Boras agent signing with the Sox.

The Sox started out taking a flier on the guy and now have elevated him to regular at bats without any evidence that he will be better than in previous years. That is not good planning.

Hitmen77
01-29-2010, 05:56 PM
Having your DH in the 9 slot seems silly when there are/were cheap FAs out there that are better than most of our hitters...

Solution? Damon.

I think you just contradicted yourself.

Who knows, maybe in the end Damon's price tag will be a lot cheaper than he or Boras want it to be.

soxfan43
01-29-2010, 06:14 PM
Andruw Jones is the 2010 White Sox' Carl Everett.

But does Jones believe in dinosaurs?

I think Jones will be decent. But then again, my opinion is based on the shape he's in. If he's in shape, he can certainly give the team some pop and better defense than Pierre. If not, well then all bets are off I'd prefer a better guy but it appears the payroll is maxed out. Or maybe Kenny is keeping his options open to add a guy midseason. Another option could be one of the minor league guys if the Jones/Kotsay thing bottoms out early on. I also still think having the option to rest Quentin more is a huge factor. I'm fairly confident that between Jones, Vizquel, Kotsay, Viciedo, Danks, Morel, Flowers and whoever else I'm forgetting, the Sox will get enough production from the DH spot to help win the division. If not, I'm confident Kenny will make a move in June or July to get what the team needs. Reinsdorf might be more willing to add payroll if the team is playing well and appears to just be missing that one piece.

I can't wait for spring training.

guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 06:19 PM
What would give anyone the impression Jones can play and play effectively full-time? He's pretty much been on the downswing for 3 years. He was playing for a huge payday his final year in ATL, lost a lot of weight and hit .220. He got a nice contract with LA, celebrated by downing cheesburgers and might have been the biggest FA bust ever. He gets another chance with TEX, again playing for a contract, is in better shape than he was in LA but after a fast start, struggled and got hurt again. I suppose there is a chance he could be the Andruw Jones who played in ATL up in the early 2000's but realistically he is not.

As a DH, I think it's reasonable for him to be full-time or close to it. Not saying it will happen. I never said I expect him to be the player he was during the early part of the decade. I expect his offensive contributions to echo what he did in 2007 and 2009. Where are you getting that idea from?


[/LIST]
I hope you are right but I think you are grossly underestimating Alexei's contribution to the team in 2008. He was pure clutch most of the year as, if I recall correctly, he had the best BA with runners in scoring position on the team, by far. For a good part of the year, especially after Carlos went down to injury, Alexei was the best hitter on the team. Just as one example, if it wasn't for Alexei's clutch grand slam in game 162 against Detroit, there would not have been a game 163. Thus, if you think Gordon in 2010 is going to outperform 2008 Alexei by a decent margin, either (A) you are going to be disappointed or (B) Gordon is going to have a near MVP season. Hey, I really like Gordon but your expectations may be a little high. I would be elated if Gordon just had a year, offensively, equal to Alexei's year in 2008. I'll take the 4 grand slams and the great BA with RISP.

I think that Beckham has a good shot at a .290+ BA (.370 OBP) with 25+ homers, 45 doubles, and 90-100 RBI with 12 or so SB and will finish the season hitting cleanup or third in the lineup. Not quite MVP level, but I do think that he will deserve to be considered for the AL's starting 2B in the All-Star game (though I think Roberts or Kinsler will get, and deserve the spot).

To me, that is more than just a decent margin.

Having your DH in the 9 slot seems silly when there are/were cheap FAs out there that are better than most of our hitters...

Solution? Damon.

Where did I say the DH would hit 9th? It's not like A.J. is going to lead off.

And Damon isn't cheap..yet.

Andruw Jones is the 2010 White Sox' Carl Everett.

Exactly my thinking. I don't mean to make the '05 comparison, but it at least shows that a stud is not necessary at DH for a team to win. Everett was mediocre. Jones/Kotsay will be mediocre but (I expect) slightly better.

Another point: Look at the 2001 Seattle Mariners. The team was so great because of its pitching, plus Bret Boone and Ichiro had amazing seasons. But only one player on that team hit more than even 25 home runs (Boone). They had 5 people with an OPS over .800 (Boone, Ichiro, Edgar, Olerud and Cammy). I do NOT expect this year's offense to score 927+ runs as those Mariners did, but I do think the team is a "Lite" version of that team in many respects. They won't hit a ton of home runs, but they will score consistently and will not be so annoyingly streaky.

I think you are wrong in limiting it to the general sentiment of the entire board. It is the sentiment of the entire league as evidenced by his league minimum contract and a Boras agent signing with the Sox.

The Sox started out taking a flier on the guy and now have elevated him to regular at bats without any evidence that he will be better than in previous years. That is not good planning.

I understand your points here. However, I think they're counting on him being healthy and not necessarily better than last year or the year before.

Put it to you this way: Andruw Jones' 2007 and 2009 are bad when compared to his previous track record, but that's because the years prior were simply incredible. His bad performance is amplified by the paycheck he was getting. As a power hitter, he is still a formidable presence in the lineup. Again, if you take 2009 and spread it over a whole season, it's pretty respectable as far as the homers and extra base hits are concerned. 2007 was a respectable season if you get over the fact that his batting average wasn't so great. He still hits for power and he still drives people in.

russ99
01-29-2010, 08:10 PM
What would give anyone the impression Jones can play and play effectively full-time? He's pretty much been on the downswing for 3 years. He was playing for a huge payday his final year in ATL, lost a lot of weight and hit .220. He got a nice contract with LA, celebrated by downing cheesburgers and might have been the biggest FA bust ever. He gets another chance with TEX, again playing for a contract, is in better shape than he was in LA but after a fast start, struggled and got hurt again. I suppose there is a chance he could be the Andruw Jones who played in ATL up in the early 2000's but realistically he is not.

Kenny's banking on some resurgence, due to the fact that he was an All-star and threw it all away. At some point reality has to smack you in the face (much like Pods last year) and you either give it your all or give up and retire.

Andruw's relative age is one reason that a resurgence is possible, and his numbers in limited time last year are another. A lot banks on his shape and overall attitude/effort this spring.

There is a chance he could be a total bust, but definitely worth a look. If he does well, Kenny looks like a genius, if he tanks, the Sox are only out $500K, and Kenny goes looking for alternatives.

Rdy2PlayBall
01-29-2010, 08:23 PM
I picture the Sox having much better offensive numbers than last year. Less homeruns, but more runs and near the top of the league in stolen bases. That is, if Ozzie is really serious about trying to manage this time around. Jones and Kotsay wont cover Thome's offensive production, but they will be more valuable to the club. ALSO, our new additions will make up for the offensive production of Dye and Thome being gone... for sure.

BadBobbyJenks
01-29-2010, 08:41 PM
I was told there would be a case FOR Andruw Jones in this thread. Where was it?

Goodman6
01-29-2010, 08:42 PM
I think that Beckham has a good shot at a .290+ BA (.370 OBP) with 25+ homers, 45 doubles, and 90-100 RBI with 12 or so SB and will finish the season hitting cleanup or third in the lineup. Not quite MVP level, but I do think that he will deserve to be considered for the AL's starting 2B in the All-Star game (though I think Roberts or Kinsler will get, and deserve the spot).

To me, that is more than just a decent margin.

I am not sure you are aware of the fact that in 2008 Alexei DID hit .290 with 21 HR's, 77 RBI despite starting to play on a regular basis only in mid May and batting at or near the bottom of the batting order most of the year. If you project his numbers over a full season, it pencils out to 25 HR's and 91 RBI, much like the numbers you HOPE Gordon puts up in 2010, except for the doubles and high OBP you THINK he can achieve. By the way, Alexei stole 13 bases in 2008. I am not disagreeing with you on the numbers you think Gordon can put up in 2010, but the numbers you project are not MORE THAN A DECENT MARGIN better than what Alexei did in 2008. You must also take in to account that it is not always how many hits, homers and RBI a player gets, what matters is when they get them. In 2008, Alexei was incredible at coming up with big hits in times of need.

guillen4life13
01-29-2010, 09:03 PM
I am not sure you are aware of the fact that in 2008 Alexei DID hit .290 with 21 HR's, 77 RBI despite starting to play on a regular basis only in mid May and batting at or near the bottom of the batting order most of the year. If you project his numbers over a full season, it pencils out to 25 HR's and 91 RBI, much like the numbers you HOPE Gordon puts up in 2010, except for the doubles and high OBP you THINK he can achieve. By the way, Alexei stole 13 bases in 2008. I am not disagreeing with you on the numbers you think Gordon can put up in 2010, but the numbers you project are not MORE THAN A DECENT MARGIN better than what Alexei did in 2008. You must also take in to account that it is not always how many hits, homers and RBI a player gets, what matters is when they get them. In 2008, Alexei was incredible at coming up with big hits in times of need.

Understood. I remember 2008 but I had forgotten that Alexei started only in mid May. I stand corrected.

Goodman6
01-29-2010, 09:25 PM
Understood. I remember 2008 but I had forgotten that Alexei started only in mid May. I stand corrected.

Actually, I am hoping you are right and Gordon puts up such great numbers in 2010 that he provides us more than a decent improvement over Alexei's numbers in 2008. That would be great.

soxinem1
01-29-2010, 11:20 PM
I think he'll hit 25 HR and 25 2B if he gets 500 AB and can see that being fine in the 6 or 7 hole no matter what other production he gives...

Jones was actually in a good little groove until he hurt his hammie. That is when he fell off.

Maybe being in a situation where he is expected to do nothing is the best scenario.

Nellie_Fox
01-30-2010, 12:56 AM
But does Jones believe in dinosaurs?That just never gets old.

raven1
02-02-2010, 06:13 PM
I think the actual situation is even better than spelled out in the analysis. Assuming Jones is healthy and effective he is only expected to be a part-time player, so if the Sox go with the rotating DH concept Ozzie wants he will be platooned with Kotsay & be used only half the time against primarily left handers. Instead of projecting him over 500 at bats he will likely only see 200-300 against mostly favorable matchups, probably a mix of DH & playing outfield while Quentin/Pierre/Konerko DH. The total production out of the Jones/Kotsay/rotating "rest" position players should be better than what we would see out of either of them as full-time starters & better than we could reasonably expect from Thome or Dye at this point in their careers. As a bonus he is also a viable late-inning defensive replacement for Pierre or Quentin.

If we really get lucky (maybe 20% chance) and he returns to the form he showed a few years ago we will have one of the best DH's in the league & he will get his 500 at-bats, and if he is a complete bust he will be released & the Sox can trade for Adam Dunn or whatever other big lefty bat is available in June or July. Most likely we will get production similar to what he was doing 2-3 years ago, but only see him in about half the games & be able to try to keep Quentin & others healthy with frequent breaks.

NLaloosh
02-02-2010, 06:20 PM
I'm optimistic but even I feel that the high end of the optimism would be for him to come in this year with the right physical and mental conditions so that he could really help the Sox defensively.

It would be great if he could play a really good RF and an adequate CF. Offensively, I think the best we could hope for would be about a .240 average with about 25 homers in 400 at bats.

I would be very happy if he could be a solid, not spectacular, two-way player. I think the Sox would, too.

soxfanatlanta
02-02-2010, 08:53 PM
His playing weight has always been an issue since his mid twenties. I have very low expectations for him which is a shame; he was the best defensive center fielder I've ever seen.

Britt Burns
02-03-2010, 12:41 AM
While I would be willing to bet that Jones is not with the Sox come May, you lay out an impressive argument, and I certainly hope you are right about the offence picking up. I know every team is going to have question marks going into the season, but it seems like we have a bunch of 'ifs':

...if Rios' 2009 was a fluke
...if TCQ can stay healthy
...if Jones can regain some of his prior form
-and/or-
...if the DH by committee won't be a huge drag on the lineup
...if Paulie doesn't have one of his periodic terrible seasons (2003+2008)
...if the lack of a big LH bat doesn't hurt us too much
...if our promising but somewhat inconsistent relief staff turns in a good year

For the record, I think we will have a good offense--good enough for our strong starters to carry--but we do have some things that must break our way to turn a good team into one that will be playing late into October.

tm1119
02-03-2010, 05:27 PM
If Jones is in our lineup even close to everyday and hits .220/.320/.445 he will hurt our lineup more than help it. There are/were plenty of other players available who can better that easily. Those #'s are pretty awful, there is no way he would see more than 150+ Ab's if he was on pace for that kind of season. By your logic lets just plug someone like Stefan Gartrell in there, he could probably put up those #'s. Jones is done, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see him get cut after spring training.

At this point if management doesnt want to spend the money to win, then lets have Flowers and Viciedo battle out for the DH spot in spring training and start their development now.

jabrch
02-03-2010, 05:32 PM
At this point if management doesnt want to spend the money to win,

They are spending more than enough to win. 105mm is more than sufficient. Bitch about how they allocate that money all you want - that's subjective. But there should be no reasonable arguement that they are not spending enough.

tm1119
02-03-2010, 08:05 PM
They are spending more than enough to win. 105mm is more than sufficient. Bitch about how they allocate that money all you want - that's subjective. But there should be no reasonable arguement that they are not spending enough.

Ehh, yeah youre right. Didnt mean it to sound like that. Its just that we are so close to being a championship caliber team, its frustrating that we have yet to address that 1 and only need (DH/OF). Put 1 more legit hitter in the middle of this order and we are right up there with the Yanks and Bosox in the championship discussion. Is an extra 4-5 mil really going to hurt anything was my point I guess. Maybe, maybe not.

jabrch
02-04-2010, 12:09 AM
Ehh, yeah youre right. Didnt mean it to sound like that. Its just that we are so close to being a championship caliber team, its frustrating that we have yet to address that 1 and only need (DH/OF). Put 1 more legit hitter in the middle of this order and we are right up there with the Yanks and Bosox in the championship discussion. Is an extra 4-5 mil really going to hurt anything was my point I guess. Maybe, maybe not.

That I can agree with...But my hopes aren't dashed yet that either one of these guys delivers good enough to hold the job, the platoon delivers, or they get someone else.

guillen4life13
02-24-2010, 02:01 AM
I didn't want to jack another thread to do this, and I figured that this thread is still pertinent anyways, so I'm kind of resurrecting it.

Player: AVG/OBP/OPS (HR, 3B, 2B, RBI, SB)
Pierre: .280/.340/.710, (3 HR, 9 3B, 23 2B, 40 RBI, 45 SB)
Bacon: .270/.347/.808 (22 HR, 2 3B, 44 2B, 99 RBI, 11 SB)
TCQ: .266/.365/.887 (39 HR, 1 3B, 29 2B, 111 RBI, 7 SB)
Paulie: .277/.353/.842 (28 HR, 1 3B, 30 2B, 90 RBI 1 SB)
Rios: .280/.330/.775 (15 HR, 5 3B, 35 2B, 75 RBI, 24 SB)
Jones/Kotsay: .250/.330/.750 (20 HR, 3 3B, 32 2B, 80 RBI, 6 SB)
A.J.: .280/.320/.732 (13 HR, 1 3B, 26 2B, 53 RBI, 1 SB)
TCM: .283/.326/.755 (21 HR, 2 3B, 21 2B, 75 RBI, 15 SB)
Teahen: .274/.335/.763 (15 HR, 5 3B, 30 2B, 65 RBI, 10 SB)

Personally, I look at the above numbers as completely realistic, and decently respectable given good health.

LoveYourSuit
02-24-2010, 12:21 PM
I didn't want to jack another thread to do this, and I figured that this thread is still pertinent anyways, so I'm kind of resurrecting it.

Player: AVG/OBP/OPS (HR, 3B, 2B, RBI, SB)
Pierre: .280/.340/.710, (3 HR, 9 3B, 23 2B, 40 RBI, 45 SB)
Bacon: .270/.347/.808 (22 HR, 2 3B, 44 2B, 99 RBI, 11 SB)
TCQ: .266/.365/.887 (39 HR, 1 3B, 29 2B, 111 RBI, 7 SB)
Paulie: .277/.353/.842 (28 HR, 1 3B, 30 2B, 90 RBI 1 SB)
Rios: .280/.330/.775 (15 HR, 5 3B, 35 2B, 75 RBI, 24 SB)
Jones/Kotsay: .250/.330/.750 (20 HR, 3 3B, 32 2B, 80 RBI, 6 SB)
A.J.: .280/.320/.732 (13 HR, 1 3B, 26 2B, 53 RBI, 1 SB)
TCM: .283/.326/.755 (21 HR, 2 3B, 21 2B, 75 RBI, 15 SB)
Teahen: .274/.335/.763 (15 HR, 5 3B, 30 2B, 65 RBI, 10 SB)

Personally, I look at the above numbers as completely realistic, and decently respectable given good health.


99 rbi s from Gordon out of the 2 hole :scratch:

guillen4life13
02-24-2010, 12:37 PM
99 rbi s from Gordon out of the 2 hole :scratch:

Sorry. My previous post was not in any particular order. I think, by year's end, Beckham will be hitting 3rd or 4th in the order.

sox1970
02-24-2010, 12:47 PM
99 rbi s from Gordon out of the 2 hole :scratch:

Aaron Hill did it last year. :shrug:

LoveYourSuit
02-24-2010, 01:13 PM
Aaron Hill did it last year. :shrug:


If Gordon can put up those kind of numbers, then I agree with the topic of the thread. Andruw Jones suck or good, wouldn't matter.

Lillian
02-24-2010, 08:22 PM
It's always a little precarious to extrapolate and project numbers based upon a small sample size. However, in this case, I think it's valid to look at Jones' production last year before he pulled his hamstring.
Consider the fact that Jones was plagued by a bad hamstring the whole second half of the season.

His production was actually even better than his final numbers, which declined when he tried to play through the injury. He ended the first half of the season with a .229 average and a .344 OBP. He hit all 17 of his homers in his first 221 at bats, so if you want to do projections, that works out to 43 homers in a 550 at bat full season. He didn't have a single homer in his last 81 at bats. Therefore, projections based upon his last year's half a season are actually quite conservative.

Last year was his first year in the American League. As he gets to know the pitchers better, his familiarity with their 'stuff' should help him to improve upon his first half season in the A.L.

guillen4life13
02-24-2010, 08:33 PM
If Gordon can put up those kind of numbers, then I agree with the topic of the thread. Andruw Jones suck or good, wouldn't matter.

In Gordon's case, those numbers take his numbers from last year and extrapolate them over a 162 games. I actually think Gordon will do better than that, but I went by just his numbers from last year to determine those hypothetical stats.

Rdy2PlayBall
02-24-2010, 11:28 PM
I didn't want to jack another thread to do this, and I figured that this thread is still pertinent anyways, so I'm kind of resurrecting it.

Player: AVG/OBP/OPS (HR, 3B, 2B, RBI, SB)
Pierre: .280/.340/.710, (3 HR, 9 3B, 23 2B, 40 RBI, 45 SB)
Bacon: .270/.347/.808 (22 HR, 2 3B, 44 2B, 99 RBI, 11 SB)
TCQ: .266/.365/.887 (39 HR, 1 3B, 29 2B, 111 RBI, 7 SB)
Paulie: .277/.353/.842 (28 HR, 1 3B, 30 2B, 90 RBI 1 SB)
Rios: .280/.330/.775 (15 HR, 5 3B, 35 2B, 75 RBI, 24 SB)
Jones/Kotsay: .250/.330/.750 (20 HR, 3 3B, 32 2B, 80 RBI, 6 SB)
A.J.: .280/.320/.732 (13 HR, 1 3B, 26 2B, 53 RBI, 1 SB)
TCM: .283/.326/.755 (21 HR, 2 3B, 21 2B, 75 RBI, 15 SB)
Teahen: .274/.335/.763 (15 HR, 5 3B, 30 2B, 65 RBI, 10 SB)

Personally, I look at the above numbers as completely realistic, and decently respectable given good health.Those are also reasonable HR numbers. About 175, and you can definitely give about 15 for the bench, taking into account Nix, Castro, and Buehrle. If we end the season with 180-190 HRs, I think that would be GREAT considering we are much quicker and more balanced. If our team stays healthy, anyone who thinks those HR numbers are way off, need to take a break this off season, because those are pretty close to what these players should average. PK's might be high, but who knows, Jone's might be low. We only hit 184 HRs last year, and that's with Mr. Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye... I don't think we will be losing any power when we now have 5-6 guys capable of hitting 20HRs.

These stats make me excited because they are not only decent, but realistic if you look at the season as if we had no injuries. (though I see the team AVG being lower) Hopefully we wont, because this offense could help our staff win this division. Not carry it... but help it.

let the hating on my post commense!

DonnieDarko
02-24-2010, 11:57 PM
Only thing that I can see (at a quick glance) that's unrealistic are all the triples. My God, THE TRIPLES. :P

asindc
02-25-2010, 09:18 AM
Only thing that I can see (at a quick glance) that's unrealistic are all the triples. My God, THE TRIPLES. :P

Which players' triples numbers do you think are too high?

Harry Chappas
02-25-2010, 02:48 PM
Which players' triples numbers do you think are too high?

As a team, we had 20 all of last year. His projections show 33 just among starters. A 60% bump is probably a little unrealistic, even without Dye and Thome in the lineup but I hope he's right.

guillen4life13
02-25-2010, 04:50 PM
As a team, we had 20 all of last year. His projections show 33 just among starters. A 60% bump is probably a little unrealistic, even without Dye and Thome in the lineup but I hope he's right.

Again, all of my numbers are based on players' recent production. I imagine that, with the Cell factored into the equation, some of those doubles and triples may turn into home runs.