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View Full Version : Over/Under on Sox Homers this year


steely712
01-28-2010, 09:41 AM
For years the magic number for the Sox seemed to be 200 hr's, I just did a rough count and I figure about 182 HR's this year. Do you think that they will be over/under 182 hr's this season?

voodoochile
01-28-2010, 09:51 AM
What's your breakdown on that 182?

Craig Grebeck
01-28-2010, 09:52 AM
I'd rather talk about runs scored, as it appears the "Kenny is infallible" crowd seems certain that Jones and Kotsay will somehow score more runs for the ballclub while getting on-base at a poor clip.

voodoochile
01-28-2010, 10:00 AM
I'd rather talk about runs scored, as it appears the "Kenny is infallible" crowd seems certain that Jones and Kotsay will somehow score more runs for the ballclub while getting on-base at a poor clip.

Then start a freaking thread on it okay? Why are you hijacking this one?

Rdy2PlayBall
01-28-2010, 10:03 AM
Quentin - 35
Rios - 15
Konerko - 28
Alexei - 20
Pierre - 60 (2)
AJ - 12
Beckham - 25
Kotsay - 5
Teahen - 20
Jones - 15

All reasonable numbers to honest...

=177. Miscellaneous easily + 10
187.

Good season out of any of these players could bring that over 200. 187 should be the lowest IMO. I say under 200, but close enough to be good enough with our speed. I think there will be a lot less SOLO homeruns than last year. (idc about Thomes OBP, hes the guy hitting the HRs, not the guy on base during them)

Craig Grebeck
01-28-2010, 10:05 AM
Then start a freaking thread on it okay? Why are you hijacking this one?
Nah, I'll save you the trouble of ripping me for doing that.

I think forecasting home runs is both inexact and pointless. Even if we hit 200 again, who is going to be on base for them?

That said, I'll take the under.

steely712
01-28-2010, 10:34 AM
It was just going position by position, no real science about it, I just took their lineup and put numbers next to them for what I thought that player would hit this year.

Paulie- 30
Quentin- 35
Pierre- 2
AJ- 12
Alexei- 23
Beckham- 25
Teahan- 16
Rios- 20
Jones- 10
Kotsay- 9

voodoochile
01-28-2010, 10:38 AM
It was just going position by position, no real science about it, I just took their lineup and put numbers next to them for what I thought that player would hit this year.

Paulie- 30
Quentin- 35
Pierre- 2
AJ- 12
Alexei- 23
Beckham- 25
Teahan- 16
Rios- 20
Jones- 10
Kotsay- 9

I think Teahen will crack 20 and won't be surprised if Jones does too.

Rdy2PlayBall
01-28-2010, 10:40 AM
I think Teahen will crack 20 and won't be surprised if Jones does too.Teahen will be more comfortable after all... and in a smaller park. Plus, Jones got 17 least year, and does "feel..." better than ever.

I think Teahen will actually have a bigger impact then a lot of people are saying. That's on trade that I really liked over this offseason. The guy is really excited about it.

Nellie_Fox
01-28-2010, 10:41 AM
Even if we hit 200 again, who is going to be on base for them?Nobody. Without Jim Thome, nobody will ever be on base. Ever. Seriously.

doublem23
01-28-2010, 10:44 AM
AJ - 12
Konerko - 27
Bacon - 20
Alexei - 18
Teahen - 11
Pierre - 2
Rios - 17
Quentin - 35
Jones - 11, Kotsay - 5, Vizquel - 1

Rest of team - 10

169

Rdy2PlayBall
01-28-2010, 10:45 AM
Nobody. Without Jim Thome, nobody will ever be on base. Ever. Seriously.Never!? D:

Thome's runs scored was very poor for how good his OBP was.

doublem23
01-28-2010, 10:46 AM
Thome's runs scored was very poor for how good his OBP was.

He led the team in runs scored 2 of his full 3 seasons here and finished 3 behind the team leader the year he didn't.

DirtySox
01-28-2010, 11:00 AM
Under.

I would love to be wrong though.

Rdy2PlayBall
01-28-2010, 11:00 AM
He led the team in runs scored 2 of his full 3 seasons here and finished 3 behind the team leader the year he didn't.His runs scored was 8th last year, and his OBP was 1st... and by a wide margin in some cases. He has also been on a consistent downfall. He probably would have only gotten 10 or 15 more runs (max) if he finished '09 with the Sox.

Huisj
01-28-2010, 02:54 PM
His runs scored was 8th last year, and his OBP was 1st... and by a wide margin in some cases. He has also been on a consistent downfall. He probably would have only gotten 10 or 15 more runs (max) if he finished '09 with the Sox..

And if he'd scored 3 more runs, he'd have been 5th, and the 4 people ahead of him all had 150-200 more plate appearances than him.

Huisj
01-28-2010, 03:13 PM
His runs scored was 8th last year, and his OBP was 1st... and by a wide margin in some cases. He has also been on a consistent downfall. He probably would have only gotten 10 or 15 more runs (max) if he finished '09 with the Sox.

To break it down more into percentage of time scoring after being on base:

Dye: (78 R) / [(574 PA)*(.340 OBP)] --> scored 40% of time
Pods: (75 R) / [(587 PA)*(.353 OBP)] --> scored 36.2% of time
Konerko: (75 R) / [(621 PA)*(.353 OBP)] --> scored 34.2% of time
Ramirez: (71 R) / [(606 PA)*(.333 OBP)] --> scored 35.2% of time
Beckham: (58 R) / [(430 PA)*(.347 OBP)] --> scored 38.9% of time
AJ: (57 R) / [(535 PA)*(.331 OBP)] --> scored 32.2% of time
Thome: (55 R) / [(417 PA)*(.372 OBP)] --> scored 35.5% of time
Getz: (45 R) / [(415 PA)*(.324 OBP)] --> scored 33.5% of time

Well, it doesn't look like the myth of Thome never scoring when he's on base is necessarily true. Now I suppose one could go even deeper and look at when those times scoring were due to home runs (hit by him or others while he was on base), and that might tell a bit more, but at first glance, he's not looking too pathetic compared to the other run scorers on the Sox last year.

jabrch
01-28-2010, 03:17 PM
Nobody. Without Jim Thome, nobody will ever be on base. Ever. Seriously.

Beatiful Nellie....Freaking Beautiful.

asindc
01-28-2010, 03:22 PM
To break it down more into percentage of time scoring after being on base:

Dye: (78 R) / [(574 PA)*(.340 OBP)] --> scored 40% of time
Pods: (75 R) / [(587 PA)*(.353 OBP)] --> scored 36.2% of time
Konerko: (75 R) / [(621 PA)*(.353 OBP)] --> scored 34.2% of time
Ramirez: (71 R) / [(606 PA)*(.333 OBP)] --> scored 35.2% of time
Beckham: (58 R) / [(430 PA)*(.347 OBP)] --> scored 38.9% of time
AJ: (57 R) / [(535 PA)*(.331 OBP)] --> scored 32.2% of time
Thome: (55 R) / [(417 PA)*(.372 OBP)] --> scored 35.5% of time
Getz: (45 R) / [(415 PA)*(.324 OBP)] --> scored 33.5% of time

Well, it doesn't look like the myth of Thome never scoring when he's on base is necessarily true. Now I suppose one could go even deeper and look at when those times scoring were due to home runs (hit by him or others while he was on base), and that might tell a bit more, but at first glance, he's not looking to pathetic compared to the other run scorers on the Sox last year.

That is a good breakdown of the numbers. I do think, however, that a major part of the issue that has been debated the past several days is at what rate did Thome score when he did not hit a HR, to which you alluded. It would be interesting to see scoring rates for all players broken down by when they reach a certain base, how many outs there were, and what happened after they reached base.

For instance, Player A scores 40% of the time when he reaches 1st base with one out and a walk and single followed him, and he scores 55% of the time he reaches 2nd base with no outs and a ground out and fly out follow him. I think that would objectify the external factors.

doublem23
01-28-2010, 03:30 PM
That is a good breakdown of the numbers. I do think, however, that a major part of the issue that has been debated the past several days is at what rate did Thome score when he did not hit a HR, to which you alluded. It would be interesting to see scoring rates for all players broken down by when they reach a certain base, how many outs there were, and what happened after they reached base.

For instance, Player A scores 40% of the time when he reaches 1st base with one out and a walk and single followed him, and he scores 55% of the time he reaches 2nd base with no outs and a ground out and fly out follow him. I think that would objectify the external factors.

What does it matter how a guy scores, as long as he scores? And no, there are still external factors. Bacon scores at a higher clip, not only because he's a good baserunner, but also because he has guys like Konerko and Thome hitting behind him. Thome gets stranded on 1st base, in part because he's slow and plodding, but also because he has the hot garbage that was the lower 1/3 of the Sox's lineup hitting behind him last season.

jabrch
01-28-2010, 03:37 PM
but also because he has the hot garbage that was the lower 1/3 of the Sox's lineup hitting behind him last season.

He hit 4. Didn't he have PK and AJ hitting behind him most of the time. Those were two relatively productive hitters.

asindc
01-28-2010, 03:43 PM
What does it matter how a guy scores, as long as he scores? And no, there are still external factors. Bacon scores at a higher clip, not only because he's a good baserunner, but also because he has guys like Konerko and Thome hitting behind him. Thome gets stranded on 1st base, in part because he's slow and plodding, but also because he has the hot garbage that was the lower 1/3 of the Sox's lineup hitting behind him last season.

That's why a breakdown including such factors as # of outs and what happens following the runner are objective. I am not talking about the number of runs scored but the rate at which they are scored. And I am not talking about the number of times a player is in certain situations, but how often he scores once he is in those situations. OPS+ is a very relevant stat but it does not take that into account. As OPS+ is typically used, it is assumed that everyone will score at the same rate given the same circumstances. Since, we know that is not true, I would like to see numbers to quantity how much of a difference there is from player to player.

To answer your question, it does not matter how a player scores, but his ability to score definitely does.

Craig Grebeck
01-28-2010, 03:45 PM
That's why a breakdown including such factors as # of outs and what happens following the runner are objective. I am not talking about the number of runs scored but the rate at which they are scored. And I am not talking about the number of times a player is in certain situations, but how often he scores once he is in those situations. OPS+ is a very relevant stat but it does not take that into account. As OPS+ is typically used, it is assumed that everyone will score at the same rate given the same circumstances. Since, we know that is not true, I would like to see numbers to quantity how much of a difference there is from player to player.

To answer your question, it does not matter how a player scores, but his ability to score definitely does.
...and his ability to score is almost wholly predicated on the hitters behind him, unless we're talking about Rickey Henderson here.

Huisj
01-28-2010, 03:58 PM
...and his ability to score is almost wholly predicated on the hitters behind him, unless we're talking about Rickey Henderson here.

For example, say you bat #2 for the 1996 White Sox. The next three guys up are Thomas (.349-40-134), Baines (.311-22-95), and Ventura (.287-34-105). Not a bad spot to be if you want to score a run after getting on base.

Now instead, you get traded to the 2006 Royals, and you are again asked to bat 2nd. Only now, your next three batters are Doug Mientkiewicz (.283-4-43), Reggie Sanders (.246-11-49), and Matt Stairs (.247-13-51) until Stairs gets traded and then it's an even worse hodgepodge.

Who scores more runs?

Thatguyoverthere
01-28-2010, 04:00 PM
AJ - 13
Konerko - 26
Beckham - 22
Ramirez - 19
Teahen - 17
Quentin - 37
Rios - 20
Pierre - 1
Adrian Gonzalez - 46
Jones - 15
Rest of Team - 10

180 HR

Domeshot17
01-28-2010, 04:01 PM
Paulie- 24
Quentin- 29
Pierre- 1
AJ- 13
Alexei- 18
Beckham- 19
Teahan- 13
Rios- 21
Jones- 16
Kotsay- 4
Nix-8
Castro-1
Viz- 0

167

asindc
01-28-2010, 04:03 PM
...and his ability to score is almost wholly predicated on the hitters behind him, unless we're talking about Rickey Henderson here.

Let me try explaining this another way:

Player A reached 2nd base with no outs and this sequence of events followed him 30 times: Groundout to right side of infield, then flyout deep enough to score the average runner from 3rd (whatever depth you want to choose). Under those circumstances, he scored 55% of the time. Under the same circumstances, Player B scored 45% of the time.

In this analysis, it does not matter who grounded out to the right side of the infield, nor does it matter who hit the flyout deep enough to score the average runner from 3rd. It only measures the rate at which the runner scored when the next two batters did those things, no matter which two batters did them.

asindc
01-28-2010, 04:04 PM
For example, say you bat #2 for the 1996 White Sox. The next three guys up are Thomas (.349-40-134), Baines (.311-22-95), and Ventura (.287-34-105). Not a bad spot to be if you want to score a run after getting on base.

Now instead, you get traded to the 2006 Royals, and you are again asked to bat 2nd. Only now, your next three batters are Doug Mientkiewicz (.283-4-43), Reggie Sanders (.246-11-49), and Matt Stairs (.247-13-51) until Stairs gets traded and then it's an even worse hodgepodge.

Who scores more runs?

The guy who plays for the 1996 Sox. By the way, that is not the question I am asking.

munchman33
01-28-2010, 04:07 PM
Paulie- 20
Quentin- 22
Pierre- 0
AJ- 10
Alexei- 15
Beckham- 24
Teahan- 18
Rios- 11
Jones- 9
Kotsay- 6
Nix-11
Castro-0
Viz - 0

146

Sam Spade
01-28-2010, 04:25 PM
Paulie- 20
Quentin- 22
Pierre- 0
AJ- 10
Alexei- 15
Beckham- 24
Teahan- 18
Rios- 11
Jones- 9
Kotsay- 6
Nix-11
Castro-0
Viz - 0

146
Ouch. It might happen.

asindc
01-28-2010, 04:29 PM
Paulie- 20
Quentin- 22
Pierre- 0
AJ- 10
Alexei- 15
Beckham- 24
Teahan- 18
Rios- 11
Jones- 9
Kotsay- 6
Nix-11
Castro-0
Viz - 0

146

If we get only 22 HRs from TCQ and only 11 from Rios, I say we are in trouble no matter who our DH is, unless we trade for Pujols, Fielder, or A. Gonzalez.

Craig Grebeck
01-28-2010, 04:31 PM
This seems like an appropriate time to ask this question: did Ozzie actually say he'd rather Rios swipe 50 bags than hit 50 HR? Or was that an Onion article?

Please, please be the latter.

munchman33
01-28-2010, 04:36 PM
If we get only 22 HRs from TCQ and only 11 from Rios, I say we are in trouble no matter who are DH is, unless we trade for Pujols, Fielder, or A. Gonzalez.

Well, I'm assuming Carlos isn't going to be 100% healthy and Rios is going to change his approach at the plate to make more contact. Homeruns do not necessarily mean more runs scored.

munchman33
01-28-2010, 04:40 PM
This seems like an appropriate time to ask this question: did Ozzie actually say he'd rather Rios swipe 50 bags than hit 50 HR? Or was that an Onion article?

Please, please be the latter.

Even without context? If Ozzie said it, I'm sure he didn't mean all things being equal. To hit 50 homeruns, Rios would have to become an all or nothing slugger, and might bat .220. Conversely, for Rios to steal 50 bases, he'd have to commit to getting on base more often. It's more of a plate approach argument than it is a production argument.

Craig Grebeck
01-28-2010, 04:40 PM
Even without context? If Ozzie said it, I'm sure he didn't mean all things being equal. To hit 50 homeruns, Rios would have to become an all or nothing slugger, and might bat .220. Conversely, for Rios to steal 50 bases, he'd have to commit to getting on base more often. It's more of a plate approach argument than it is a production argument.
I don't think Ozzie thinks or speaks with context in mind.

Rdy2PlayBall
01-28-2010, 06:54 PM
it doesn't look like the myth of Thome never scoring when he's on base is necessarily true. Now I suppose one could go even deeper and look at when those times scoring were due to home runs (hit by him or others while he was on base), and that might tell a bit more, but at first glance, he's not looking too pathetic compared to the other run scorers on the Sox last year.yes...

Thatguyoverthere
01-28-2010, 07:45 PM
After reading through this thread, I've realized everyone's forgetting a source of power. He really showed some promise at the plate last year with his power stroke, and I don't think it's too unrealistic to expect double the amount of homeruns from him in 2010. In light of this realization, I'd like to add 2 homeruns to my predicted team total in honor of Buehrle's new-found abilities. :tongue:

LITTLE NELL
01-29-2010, 05:18 AM
Paulie...........25
Beckham.......20
Alexei...........20
Teahan.........17
TCQ.............30
Pierre............2
Rios.............20
Kotsay......... 10
Jones.......... 10
AJ.................12
Nix................10
Vizquel..........2
Castro............5

Total.............183
+1 On the 182 over/under