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mzh
11-29-2009, 03:39 PM
Definitely would not be a bad bullpen pickup, and if we trade Jenks definitely an option as a closer if Thornton fails. It all depends on price IMO

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/eight-teams-interested-in-takashi-saito.html

Boondock Saint
11-29-2009, 03:41 PM
Sign Saito, keep Jenks, solidify bullpen.

JermaineDye05
11-29-2009, 03:48 PM
Sign Saito, keep Jenks, solidify bullpen.

I don't know, if you can fill another hole or two with Jenks then I say you go for it. If we can just get a lead off guy and/or another power bat, then this team has a great shot at winning it all next year.

mzh
11-29-2009, 03:53 PM
I don't know, if you can fill another hole or two with Jenks then I say you go for it. If we can just get a lead off guy and/or another power bat, then this team has a great shot at winning it all next year.

Even with only one of those things if we can pick up someone like Saito and have a lights-out bullpen we have a nice shot as well. Great rotation + Great bullpen + mediocre lineup > Solid Lineup + Great Rotation + Terrible bullpen, IMO. If we get a bullpen that can hold 1 and 2 run leads in the late innings, we don't need as powerful an offense.

Boondock Saint
11-29-2009, 03:54 PM
I don't know, if you can fill another hole or two with Jenks then I say you go for it. If we can just get a lead off guy and/or another power bat, then this team has a great shot at winning it all next year.

I think that if we don't keep Jenks, our bullpen becomes a hole. Thornton becomes the (possibly) reliable closer, but there's nobody else to get the ball to him. Sounds like 2007 to me.

tm1119
11-29-2009, 04:21 PM
I think that if we don't keep Jenks, our bullpen becomes a hole. Thornton becomes the (possibly) reliable closer, but there's nobody else to get the ball to him. Sounds like 2007 to me.

Not to mention that we wont actually get anything significant for Jenks. If we are able to trade him it will be for nothing more than a salary dump and maybe a couple of marginal prospects. Theres just too many viable closing options available right now for a team to give up anything for Jenks.

JermaineDye05
11-29-2009, 04:28 PM
Not to mention that we wont actually get anything significant for Jenks. If we are able to trade him it will be for nothing more than a salary dump and maybe a couple of marginal prospects. Theres just too many viable closing options available right now for a team to give up anything for Jenks.

I doubt it. Few closers have done what Jenks has in the past couple of seasons. He had a down year in 2009 but I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would like to have him. He's been a top 10 closer for a while now.

tm1119
11-29-2009, 05:03 PM
I doubt it. Few closers have done what Jenks has in the past couple of seasons. He had a down year in 2009 but I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would like to have him. He's been a top 10 closer for a while now.

Hes been slowly declining in everything from velocity to K/9 since 05. Hes still very serviceable and I personally feel comfortable with him as our closer. But with Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, and Rafael Soriano all available via free agency no team is going to jump at the chance to trade anything for Jenks. And how many contenders are actually in need of a closer anyway? Rays, Braves, Cubs, Mariners, Detoit and, Phillies?(doubt it though cause lidge still has a 12mil contract). Some people are actually tagging Jenks as a non-tender candidate, what exactly do you think we could get for him?

Craig Grebeck
11-29-2009, 05:11 PM
Even with only one of those things if we can pick up someone like Saito and have a lights-out bullpen we have a nice shot as well. Great rotation + Great bullpen + mediocre lineup > Solid Lineup + Great Rotation + Terrible bullpen, IMO. If we get a bullpen that can hold 1 and 2 run leads in the late innings, we don't need as powerful an offense.
Is there no middle ground between terrible bullpen and great bullpen?

JermaineDye05
11-29-2009, 05:21 PM
Hes been slowly declining in everything from velocity to K/9 since 05.

He has been consistently at 95+ for the past 3 seasons which is nothing to sneeze at.

But with Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, and Rafael Soriano all available via free agency no team is going to jump at the chance to trade anything for Jenks.

Jenks is a better option than all of these guys.

]Some people are actually tagging Jenks as a non-tender candidate, what exactly do you think we could get for him?

I don't know but it certainly won't be a couple of "marginal prospects". Package Jenks with a decent Sox prospect or two and I think you could get a BJ Upton type player.

munchman33
11-29-2009, 05:27 PM
Sign Saito, keep Jenks, solidify bullpen.

...and lose the division by ten games.

The pen is the last place we need to spend money. We need an outfielder and a DH. Buying an arm AND keeping Bobby means we'll FOR CERTAIN be throwing out two of Viciedo, Flowers, and Danks next year. And while throwing them out there might be a good idea, going into the season knowing they have to produce at a high level in starting roles has got to be the worst way possible to assemble the team.

tm1119
11-29-2009, 05:45 PM
I don't know but it certainly won't be a couple of "marginal prospects". Package Jenks with a decent Sox prospect or two and I think you could get a BJ Upton type player.

Sorry, but no. Not even close. Not even a little close really.

Tragg
11-29-2009, 07:12 PM
Hudson should be excellent in the pen next year. I much prefer him to trading for a career middle reliever.

russ99
11-29-2009, 07:22 PM
Not to mention that we wont actually get anything significant for Jenks. If we are able to trade him it will be for nothing more than a salary dump and maybe a couple of marginal prospects. Theres just too many viable closing options available right now for a team to give up anything for Jenks.

Yeah, but do the Sox risk $7M+ that he can come to camp in shape and be able not only to stay healthy, but also continue to get guys out?

It might be too big a risk. If the Sox decide to deal Jenks, that extra salary would go a long way to shoring up the offense and can add some needed arms to the system.

Regardless, we need another experienced RH guy to replace Dotel.

Boondock Saint
11-29-2009, 07:55 PM
...and lose the division by ten games.

The pen is the last place we need to spend money. We need an outfielder and a DH. Buying an arm AND keeping Bobby means we'll FOR CERTAIN be throwing out two of Viciedo, Flowers, and Danks next year. And while throwing them out there might be a good idea, going into the season knowing they have to produce at a high level in starting roles has got to be the worst way possible to assemble the team.

I didn't suggest that as our only move. But our bullpen was shaky enough last year. Right now, we don't have the offense to disguise a shaky bullpen. It needs to be addressed regardless of what else we do.

munchman33
11-29-2009, 09:40 PM
I didn't suggest that as our only move. But our bullpen was shaky enough last year. Right now, we don't have the offense to disguise a shaky bullpen. It needs to be addressed regardless of what else we do.

That's a little puzzling. Bullpens are generally regarded as a last piece. They don't necessarily play every day, and if your starters (1-9 and SP) are good enough to get the job done, you might see one or two guys. Starting with the pen and trying to piece together position players with no money seems completely backwards.

Boondock Saint
11-29-2009, 09:51 PM
That's a little puzzling. Bullpens are generally regarded as a last piece. They don't necessarily play every day, and if your starters (1-9 and SP) are good enough to get the job done, you might see one or two guys. Starting with the pen and trying to piece together position players with no money seems completely backwards.

The Sox bullpen threw over 400 innings last season. One or two reliable guys aren't going to cut it. We need reliable guys in the bullpen. It's as simple as that. I don't see why you should ignore the bullpen until you sign other positions. It's just as important to have a solid bullpen as it is to have a solid rotation and lineup.

tm1119
11-29-2009, 10:01 PM
Hudson should be excellent in the pen next year. I much prefer him to trading for a career middle reliever.

Except who starts when Freddie breaks down?
Middle relief always tends to be a bit of a crap shoot. Unless we are talking about acquiring a proven closer or set up man its a going to be a huge question mark. Too many bullpen guys tend to be too inconsistent from year to year to invest money into middle relief. We should definitely pick up an arm or 2, but no one making substantial money. We pretty much have Jenks(provided hes still on the team), Linebrink, and Thorton set in the 8th and 9th innings. All we need is to find a few more guys who can get situational outs and eat up junk innings.

Lip Man 1
11-29-2009, 10:50 PM
This would be a good move if they can pull it off.

Lip

CWSpalehoseCWS
11-29-2009, 10:53 PM
I wish they would have taken a chance on him last year. He would really help this bullpen out.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 01:27 AM
The Sox bullpen threw over 400 innings last season. One or two reliable guys aren't going to cut it. We need reliable guys in the bullpen. It's as simple as that. I don't see why you should ignore the bullpen until you sign other positions. It's just as important to have a solid bullpen as it is to have a solid rotation and lineup.

It's only important if you've got the rest of the team. That's why the first thing bad teams trade away are bullpen arms. You don't build around them.

What good is a pen if you've got no starting pitching? What good is a pen if you can't score runs?

The answer: nothing more than mid season prospects, that's what.

Craig Grebeck
11-30-2009, 05:41 AM
Ugh. No more money on the bullpen. This offense is terrible as constructed.

soxinem1
11-30-2009, 01:58 PM
Yeah, but do the Sox risk $7M+ that he can come to camp in shape and be able not only to stay healthy, but also continue to get guys out?

It might be too big a risk. If the Sox decide to deal Jenks, that extra salary would go a long way to shoring up the offense and can add some needed arms to the system.

Regardless, we need another experienced RH guy to replace Dotel.

Saito has had his share of arm problems too, plus, it will probably cost about the same to get him as we paid Dotel the past two years, so we might as well keep the guy we have.

Ugh. No more money on the bullpen. This offense is terrible as constructed.

You are not advocating returning to the 'they are cheap, but have great arms' days of the 2007 season, are you?

munchman33
11-30-2009, 03:30 PM
You are not advocating returning to the 'they are cheap, but have great arms' days of the 2007 season, are you?

Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink, and Bobby Jenks will all be making a ton of money next season. Our current pen makes like $20 million next year without trading Bobby. That is already an inordinate amount given their relative importance and the serious holes we still need to plug on offense. What do you expect, a miracle trade of Linebrink's albatross contract? We aren't adding payroll to the bullpen without trading Bobby. End of discussion.

cws05champ
11-30-2009, 04:06 PM
...and lose the division by ten games.

The pen is the last place we need to spend money. We need an outfielder and a DH. Buying an arm AND keeping Bobby means we'll FOR CERTAIN be throwing out two of Viciedo, Flowers, and Danks next year. And while throwing them out there might be a good idea, going into the season knowing they have to produce at a high level in starting roles has got to be the worst way possible to assemble the team.

I don't think that is for certain. 1) You don't know what the Sox payroll threshold is 2) You don't know what the market will be for relievers and DH/ OF bats. I don't think anyone on this board can accurately pin this down for certain. The market could be depressed again and we end up with a good DH bat for $3-5M.

Craig Grebeck
11-30-2009, 04:18 PM
You are not advocating returning to the 'they are cheap, but have great arms' days of the 2007 season, are you?
If they are cheap and have great arms, yes. Would I roll with a bullpen of the following?

Thornton
Hudson
Pena
Nuņez
Linebrink
Williams/Santeliz
Hynick

If it means we get productive position players, then absolutely.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 04:53 PM
I don't think that is for certain. 1) You don't know what the Sox payroll threshold is 2) You don't know what the market will be for relievers and DH/ OF bats. I don't think anyone on this board can accurately pin this down for certain. The market could be depressed again and we end up with a good DH bat for $3-5M.

No, but on both accounts I'm making an educated guess.

1. Payroll won't, at the very least, rise over last year. I based this assumption on the economy, trends in the previous year for our organization, documented loss of lucrative revenue streams in both MLB and for our team in particular, comments from the general manager, comments from the manager, comments from the owner, comments by economists, comments by baseball economists, publicized reports on the state of baseball and the decrease in payrolls across the board written by every major publication within the baseball community and outside it, a plethera of young players coming soon to big pay days, and a big heaping of common sense. Seriously. If anyone on this board thinks payroll isn't going down from last year, they seriously need to lay off the kool-aid. That isn't an option. Simply not on the table.

2. Even with last years bottomed out market, we're looking at $8-10 million to fill an OF spot and the DH spot. And that's before incentives. Realistically, it should be in the $12-15 million range to budget for the two positions. Spending any less than that means we probably didn't upgrade (and realistically downgraded) and whoever we have in the pen isn't going to matter one bit. Because we aren't going to be leading after 5 innings the majority of the time.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 04:54 PM
If they are cheap and have great arms, yes. Would I roll with a bullpen of the following?

Thornton
Hudson
Pena
Nuņez
Linebrink
Williams/Santeliz
Hynick

If it means we get productive position players, then absolutely.

No kidding. Our pen isn't bad. It's average. Granted, with Bobby we're paying the pen like it's above average. But we just have to live with that until Linebrink's contract is up.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 06:37 PM
No, but on both accounts I'm making an educated guess.

1. Payroll won't, at the very least, rise over last year. I based this assumption on the economy, trends in the previous year for our organization, documented loss of lucrative revenue streams in both MLB and for our team in particular, comments from the general manager, comments from the manager, comments from the owner, comments by economists, comments by baseball economists, publicized reports on the state of baseball and the decrease in payrolls across the board written by every major publication within the baseball community and outside it, a plethera of young players coming soon to big pay days, and a big heaping of common sense. Seriously. If anyone on this board thinks payroll isn't going down from last year, they seriously need to lay off the kool-aid. That isn't an option. Simply not on the table.

2. Even with last years bottomed out market, we're looking at $8-10 million to fill an OF spot and the DH spot. And that's before incentives. Realistically, it should be in the $12-15 million range to budget for the two positions. Spending any less than that means we probably didn't upgrade (and realistically downgraded) and whoever we have in the pen isn't going to matter one bit. Because we aren't going to be leading after 5 innings the majority of the time.

There are very few 12-15 mil $ players available in free agency right now. And we arent even close to being in the race for those players. CF/RF should only cost us between 3-6 mil if its between guys like Pods, Crisp, and Winn. DH is probably going to cost probably anywhere from 3-10 mil. Thome being the low end of the budget and someone like Matsui being the high end at about 10 mil. I think we have enough room in the budget to fill those 2 needs, but if Jenks stays we will not be adding any significant pieces to the bullpen.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 07:17 PM
There are very few 12-15 mil $ players available in free agency right now. And we arent even close to being in the race for those players. CF/RF should only cost us between 3-6 mil if its between guys like Pods, Crisp, and Winn. DH is probably going to cost probably anywhere from 3-10 mil. Thome being the low end of the budget and someone like Matsui being the high end at about 10 mil. I think we have enough room in the budget to fill those 2 needs, but if Jenks stays we will not be adding any significant pieces to the bullpen.

You're misreading me. After incentives, $12-15 million total for both positions. A low end DH at $2-3 million guaranteed with around $5 after incentives. A mid-range (or high-range) outfielder at about $5-6 million reaching anywhere $8-10 million with incentives. Given arbitration raises and the signings we've already made, we're really close to last year's payroll. We'll probably have to trade Bobby, or someone else, anyway. But we'll certainly have to if we're paying for more bullpen arms.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 08:26 PM
You're misreading me. After incentives, $12-15 million total for both positions. A low end DH at $2-3 million guaranteed with around $5 after incentives. A mid-range (or high-range) outfielder at about $5-6 million reaching anywhere $8-10 million with incentives. Given arbitration raises and the signings we've already made, we're really close to last year's payroll. We'll probably have to trade Bobby, or someone else, anyway. But we'll certainly have to if we're paying for more bullpen arms.

Ahh ok, I thought you were implying that it would cost us 12-15mil to fill just 1 of those positions. With Dye, Thome, Contreras, and Dotel all being gone from last years payroll I think we have a little more money that we are being lead to believe, even with the other aquisitions. I'm not expecting anything major, but I think KW will be able to adequaltely fill the roster. Bullpen is just not gonna be a major priorioty though regardless. Too much money currently invested, and too many other holes to fill. I can see a vet who had success in the past being brought in though to see if he can resurect his career, even if its for just 1 year. Maybe a Luis Ayala type, or something along the lines of him.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 09:04 PM
Ahh ok, I thought you were implying that it would cost us 12-15mil to fill just 1 of those positions. With Dye, Thome, Contreras, and Dotel all being gone from last years payroll I think we have a little more money that we are being lead to believe, even with the other aquisitions. I'm not expecting anything major, but I think KW will be able to adequaltely fill the roster. Bullpen is just not gonna be a major priorioty though regardless. Too much money currently invested, and too many other holes to fill. I can see a vet who had success in the past being brought in though to see if he can resurect his career, even if its for just 1 year. Maybe a Luis Ayala type, or something along the lines of him.

Take a visit to cott's and do the math. Contract raises and arbitration, along with Peavy and Rios for full seasons, add more payroll than you think.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-white-sox.html

russ99
11-30-2009, 09:43 PM
Take a visit to cott's and do the math. Contract raises and arbitration, along with Peavy and Rios for full seasons, add more payroll than you think.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-white-sox.html

On my 2010 Sox salary spreadsheet, after adding in Vizquel and Jones we're at $76,300,000 before adding minimum salary players and players going to arbitration.

If Jenks, Danks, Quentin, Pena and Teahen get raises as expected we're around: $100,200,000.

We still need to add a hitter, so something's got to give. One of the Arb raise players and/or Paul-A.J.-Linebrink need to be moved to free up payroll to add that player, a bullpen arm and a backup catcher and still keep us around $100M.

Jerry may have budgeted over the $100M mark, but I wouldn't count on it.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 10:09 PM
On my 2010 Sox salary spreadsheet, after adding in Vizquel and Jones we're at $76,300,000 before adding minimum salary players and players going to arbitration.

If Jenks, Danks, Quentin, Pena and Teahen get raises as expected we're around: $100,200,000.

We still need to add a hitter, so something's got to give. One of the Arb raise players and/or Paul-A.J.-Linebrink need to be moved to free up payroll to add that player, a bullpen arm and a backup catcher and still keep us around $100M.

Jerry may have budgeted over the $100M mark, but I wouldn't count on it.

For what it's worth, last year's payroll was $96 million. And signs have not pointed, in any way, that we're going up from that point. I fully expect one of Bobby, Paulie, or AJ to be gone by opening day.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 10:13 PM
On my 2010 Sox salary spreadsheet, after adding in Vizquel and Jones we're at $76,300,000 before adding minimum salary players and players going to arbitration.

If Jenks, Danks, Quentin, Pena and Teahen get raises as expected we're around: $100,200,000.

We still need to add a hitter, so something's got to give. One of the Arb raise players and/or Paul-A.J.-Linebrink need to be moved to free up payroll to add that player, a bullpen arm and a backup catcher and still keep us around $100M.

Jerry may have budgeted over the $100M mark, but I wouldn't count on it.

Really? 24 mil in arbitration raises? Danks and Quentin still makes peanuts dont they? Where exactly is all of that coming from? Im not saying youre wrong either, just curious.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 10:19 PM
Really? 24 mil in arbitration raises? Danks and Quentin still makes peanuts dont they? Where exactly is all of that coming from? Im not saying youre wrong either, just curious.

No, they're going to arbitration. It's really going to depend, and I thought for sure Quentin's injury would hurt his amount. But every estimate for the both of them I've read is saying $4 million+. Teahen will be 5+. Pena will get 2 or three. Bobby could realistically break the bank. Add minimum salaries and Viciedo's deal, and you're looking at over last year's payroll without any additions.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 10:29 PM
No, they're going to arbitration. It's really going to depend, and I thought for sure Quentin's injury would hurt his amount. But every estimate for the both of them I've read is saying $4 million+. Teahen will be 5+. Pena will get 2 or three. Bobby could realistically break the bank. Add minimum salaries and Viciedo's deal, and you're looking at over last year's payroll without any additions.

Ok so about 6 mil added between Danks and Quentin, about 2 mil + for Teahen and Pena(dont forget the 1mil KC added), and 3 for Bobby? Thats still only about 13 million added. Unless that 75 mil figure was without the arbitration eligible players all together? Forgive me, I'm obviously no accountant, but I don't see how those 5 players could possibly reach 25 million dollars in arbitration raises.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 11:12 PM
Ok so about 6 mil added between Danks and Quentin, about 2 mil + for Teahen and Pena(dont forget the 1mil KC added), and 3 for Bobby? Thats still only about 13 million added. Unless that 75 mil figure was without the arbitration eligible players all together? Forgive me, I'm obviously no accountant, but I don't see how those 5 players could possibly reach 25 million dollars in arbitration raises.

That 76 million included no salary for any of those players (as it's not guaranteed). You have to add their entire salaries. And Danks/Quentin total will be closer to $10 million total than 6 million. Probably not 10, but definately not 6.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 11:24 PM
That 76 million included no salary for any of those players (as it's not guaranteed). You have to add their entire salaries. And Danks/Quentin total will be closer to $10 million total than 6 million. Probably not 10, but definately not 6.

Ok yeah that makes more sense then. Thanks for explaining it.
I dont know then. I just cant imagine KW going out and spending 2 mil on bench players before he has his starters. He has to have some sort of plan. Is Jenks really a non-tender candidate if we can't trade him? Something has to give, and I cant see anybody actually taking PK, AJ, or Linebrink. It sure should be interesting at least.

munchman33
11-30-2009, 11:36 PM
Ok yeah that makes more sense then. Thanks for explaining it.
I dont know then. I just cant imagine KW going out and spending 2 mil on bench players before he has his starters. He has to have some sort of plan. Is Jenks really a non-tender candidate if we can't trade him? Something has to give, and I cant see anybody actually taking PK, AJ, or Linebrink. It sure should be interesting at least.

Jenks really is a non-tender candidate, yes. AJ would be hard to trade, but some teams would want a catcher. PK won't just let himself get traded. He'd require a good situation and possibly an extension. But teams will be interested. Linebrink is untradeable.

tm1119
11-30-2009, 11:53 PM
Jenks really is a non-tender candidate, yes. AJ would be hard to trade, but some teams would want a catcher. PK won't just let himself get traded. He'd require a good situation and possibly an extension. But teams will be interested. Linebrink is untradeable.

I would say that AJ is at best a mid-season salary dump for a prospect or 2. I dont see any team making the spring for him at this point. But we wouldnt do that if we are in contention. PK maybe, but more than likely only if we are willing to eat a decent portion of his salary. His salary simply doesnt match his output at this point in his career. KW surely has his work ahead of him, thats for sure.

4 points
12-01-2009, 05:33 AM
Sorry, but no. Not even close. Not even a little close really.

JD 5 has definately upped the kool-aid intake this winter.:D:

cws05champ
12-01-2009, 08:45 AM
That 76 million included no salary for any of those players (as it's not guaranteed). You have to add their entire salaries. And Danks/Quentin total will be closer to $10 million total than 6 million. Probably not 10, but definately not 6.

I think you are over estimating the amount 1st year arbitration eligible players get. If you look at a reasonable comp to John Danks in John Maine. After two seasons where he went 15-10,3.91 & 10-8, 4.18, his 1st year arbitration eligible request was $3M, and they eventually signed a 1yr $2.6M deal. And the White Sox don't typically go to arbitration with any players, usually agreeing on 1 yr deals.

Same with Quentin, reasonable comps for him are Andre Either, Cory Hart and Josh Willingham last year agreed to 1yr deals $3.6, $3.25 and $2.95M respectively.

So I think you can reasonably estimate $6-7M between the two guys. Pena will probably get under $2M, probably closer to $1.5M.

cws05champ
12-01-2009, 08:55 AM
No, but on both accounts I'm making an educated guess.

1. Payroll won't, at the very least, rise over last year. I based this assumption on the economy, trends in the previous year for our organization, documented loss of lucrative revenue streams in both MLB and for our team in particular, comments from the general manager, comments from the manager, comments from the owner, comments by economists, comments by baseball economists, publicized reports on the state of baseball and the decrease in payrolls across the board written by every major publication within the baseball community and outside it, a plethera of young players coming soon to big pay days, and a big heaping of common sense. Seriously. If anyone on this board thinks payroll isn't going down from last year, they seriously need to lay off the kool-aid. That isn't an option. Simply not on the table.

2. Even with last years bottomed out market, we're looking at $8-10 million to fill an OF spot and the DH spot. And that's before incentives. Realistically, it should be in the $12-15 million range to budget for the two positions. Spending any less than that means we probably didn't upgrade (and realistically downgraded) and whoever we have in the pen isn't going to matter one bit. Because we aren't going to be leading after 5 innings the majority of the time.

Very nice dissertation and we can all take an educated guess based on all the economic conditions. The only thing I was saying is you don't know FOR CERTAIN, as you assert, that we'll be throwing out 2/3 of Jor Danks Flowers, Viciedo.

russ99
12-01-2009, 10:04 AM
For what it's worth, last year's payroll was $96 million. And signs have not pointed, in any way, that we're going up from that point. I fully expect one of Bobby, Paulie, or AJ to be gone by opening day.

Last year's opening day payroll was in the 80's, and after taking on the Rios and Peavy contracts along with trades and Pods' signing, it was just over $100M.

Which is why my educated guess of the Sox matching last year's closing payroll (a tad over $100M) is certainly a possibility. And, if he were limited to the low-to-mid 90s, Kenny wouldn't be shopping so aggressively.

Also, I don't have my sheet in front of me, but my arb estimates were something like Jenks $7+, Danks $4-5, Quentin $4-5, Pena $2, Teahen $2 (minus the cash Kenny got in the deal), with an extra $1-2M for players making less than $500,000. And I didn't include any salary for those players in the $76M figure, that's for players who are locked in for next year.

I put Danks and Quentin higher due to their big seasons in 2008, thus potentially getting more than guys like Maine or Ethier.

munchman33
12-01-2009, 10:28 AM
Last year's opening day payroll was in the 80's, and after taking on the Rios and Peavy contracts along with trades and Pods' signing, it was just over $100M.

Which is why my educated guess of the Sox matching last year's closing payroll (a tad over $100M) is certainly a possibility. And, if he were limited to the low-to-mid 90s, Kenny wouldn't be shopping so aggressively.

Also, I don't have my sheet in front of me, but my arb estimates were something like Jenks $7+, Danks $4-5, Quentin $4-5, Pena $2, Teahen $2 (minus the cash Kenny got in the deal), with an extra $1-2M for players making less than $500,000. And I didn't include any salary for those players in the $76M figure, that's for players who are locked in for next year.

I put Danks and Quentin higher due to their big seasons in 2008, thus potentially getting more than guys like Maine or Ethier.

We only paid prorated portions of Rios and Peavy's contracts last year. It wasn't anywhere close to $20 million dollars. It wasn't even half. It was two months of service for Peavy and less for Rios.

munchman33
12-01-2009, 10:29 AM
I think you are over estimating the amount 1st year arbitration eligible players get. If you look at a reasonable comp to John Danks in John Maine. After two seasons where he went 15-10,3.91 & 10-8, 4.18, his 1st year arbitration eligible request was $3M, and they eventually signed a 1yr $2.6M deal. And the White Sox don't typically go to arbitration with any players, usually agreeing on 1 yr deals.

Same with Quentin, reasonable comps for him are Andre Either, Cory Hart and Josh Willingham last year agreed to 1yr deals $3.6, $3.25 and $2.95M respectively.

So I think you can reasonably estimate $6-7M between the two guys. Pena will probably get under $2M, probably closer to $1.5M.

As much as I want that to be true, it's not what I've read. And it makes sense that they'd get more. Quentin did almost win an MVP. And Danks is not only better than Maine, but he's won in the playoffs. Those aren't reasonable comparisons unless you're saying they're sure to make more than these players.

munchman33
12-01-2009, 10:31 AM
Very nice dissertation and we can all take an educated guess based on all the economic conditions. The only thing I was saying is you don't know FOR CERTAIN, as you assert, that we'll be throwing out 2/3 of Jor Danks Flowers, Viciedo.

Yes, but the gap between for certain and educated guess based on numerous factors is not nearly as great as for certain and kool-aid. It might not be "for certain" in that scenerio. But it's hard to argue that it wouldn't happen.

cws05champ
12-02-2009, 09:21 AM
As much as I want that to be true, it's not what I've read. And it makes sense that they'd get more. Quentin did almost win an MVP. And Danks is not only better than Maine, but he's won in the playoffs. Those aren't reasonable comparisons unless you're saying they're sure to make more than these players.
Just so you know, the record deal for a 1st year arbitration eligible pitcher is $4.325M set by Dontrelle Willis. That will most certainly be broken by Tim Lincecum this year though.

DirtySox
12-03-2009, 02:30 PM
Saito close to signing with the Braves.

http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/18695131?source=rss_blogs_MLB

DSpivack
12-03-2009, 02:37 PM
Saito close to signing with the Braves.

http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/18695131?source=rss_blogs_MLB

First they sign Wagner, now Saito?

DirtySox
12-03-2009, 02:40 PM
They need replacements for Soriano and Gonzalez. Assuming they don't accept arbitration.

NLaloosh
12-03-2009, 02:54 PM
The Sox wouldn't beat a one year $ 3 mil. offer?

oeo
12-03-2009, 03:04 PM
The Sox wouldn't beat a one year $ 3 mil. offer?

The article said this? I must have missed that. Maybe because we only won 79 games last year in a bad division, he doesn't want to come here?

cws05champ
12-03-2009, 05:32 PM
The article said this? I must have missed that. Maybe because we only won 79 games last year in a bad division, he doesn't want to come here?

Going to the Braves though they have to leap the Phils and the Marlins, maybe the Mets if they rebound.

Edit: I really like what they are doing there in the ATL. Bringing in Saito and Wagner, even if they lose both Gonzalez and Soriano they pick up 4 draft picks as well. If they retain one of those two it will be a heck of a pen to go with a good rotation. If they only could find a bat.

soxinem1
12-03-2009, 06:48 PM
Going to the Braves though they have to leap the Phils and the Marlins, maybe the Mets if they rebound.

Edit: I really like what they are doing there in the ATL. Bringing in Saito and Wagner, even if they lose both Gonzalez and Soriano they pick up 4 draft picks as well. If they retain one of those two it will be a heck of a pen to go with a good rotation. If they only could find a bat.

They have plenty of time, and options, to do so. It's only December 3rd.

I think they can knock off PHI, especially if they do not improve their bullpen. It was the worst bullpen of all the teams that made it to the post-season.

DSpivack
12-03-2009, 07:46 PM
They have plenty of time, and options, to do so. It's only December 3rd.

I think they can knock off PHI, especially if they do not improve their bullpen. It was the worst bullpen of all the teams that made it to the post-season.

Supposedly they're looking to trade Vazquez for a bat, as Derek Lowe's contract is too big to get much in return.