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DirtySox
11-17-2009, 11:49 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9776


Four-Star Prospects
1. Daniel Hudson, RHP
2. Jared Mitchell, OF
3. Tyler Flowers, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Jordan Danks, CF
5. Dayan Viciedo, 3B
6. Brent Morel, 3B
7. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP
8. Trayce Thompson, OF
Two-Star Prospects
9. Santos Rodriguez, LHP
10. David Holmberg, LHP
11. C.J. Retherford, 2B


Four More:

12. Jhonny Nunez, RHP: Nunez has a 93-95 mph fastball and a very good slider, both of which should fit in a big-league bullpen, though he falls short of being the late-inning type.
13. Josh Phegley, C: The 2009 draftee is the rare college catcher with power and patience, but there are way too many questions about his defensive prowess.
14. John Ely, RHP: Ely has consistently gotten minor league hitters out, but on a pure scouting level, he has merely average stuff and command.
15. Nathan Jones, RHP: Standing 6-foot-5, he's projectable as all get out and dialed up heat clocked up to 97 mph this year; he'll also be 24 in January while having yet to get out of A-ball.
...
The Sleeper: While the White Sox are rarely big players on the international scene, they might have found something in 18-year-old Venezuelan catcher Miguel Gonzalez, who combines a good bat with power potential and impressive catch-and-throw skills.

DonnieDarko
11-17-2009, 01:11 PM
...most scouts believe that Hudson has "maxed out"? Really? Hell, even if he has maxed out to a 3rd starter, that would still be valuable to the club.

oeo
11-17-2009, 01:17 PM
...most scouts believe that Hudson has "maxed out"? Really? Hell, even if he has maxed out to a 3rd starter, that would still be valuable to the club.

He said 'many', not 'most.' There is a difference, but I'd like to know how much 'many' is? He later says 'some' scouts think he doesn't have much more room for growth? How many is 'some'? What do the rest think? You're rating him as a four star prospect, there has to be someone out there that likes his future.

tm1119
11-17-2009, 09:17 PM
He said 'many', not 'most.' There is a difference, but I'd like to know how much 'many' is? He later says 'some' scouts think he doesn't have much more room for growth? How many is 'some'? What do the rest think? You're rating him as a four star prospect, there has to be someone out there that likes his future.

Probably depends on what you see as a bright future. He has a lot of potential to be a serviceable to good Sp in the MLB. But does he have the potential to be a front of the rotation starter to ace? I think that is what the scouts are questioning. I kinda see him as a really good #3 starter that could peak at a #2, but I doubt he will the kind of pitcher you can build a rotation around.
Of course this is only based on the few innings I saw him pitch this year so I could easily be wrong.

SoxNation05
11-17-2009, 09:31 PM
1. Daniel Hudson, RHP 8th Round, 2008
2. Jared Mitchell, OF 1st Round, 2009
3. Tyler Flowers, C Trade ATL 33rd Round, 2005
4. Jordan Danks, CF 8th Round, 2008
5. Dayan Viciedo, 3B FA Cuba
6. Brent Morel, 3B 3rd Round, 2008
7. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP FA DR
8. Trayce Thompson, OF 2nd Round, 2009
9. Santos Rodriguez, LHP FA DR
10. David Holmberg, LHP 2nd Round, 2009
11. C.J. Retherford, 2B Undrafted

Bold=Drafted by CHW
Underlined= Picked up in Trade
Italic= Free Agent

oeo
11-17-2009, 09:52 PM
1. Daniel Hudson, RHP 8th Round, 2008
2. Jared Mitchell, OF 1st Round, 2009
3. Tyler Flowers, C Trade ATL 33rd Round, 2005
4. Jordan Danks, CF 8th Round, 2009
5. Dayan Viciedo, 3B FA Cuba
6. Brent Morel, 3B 3rd Round, 2009
7. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP FA DR
8. Trayce Thompson, OF 2nd Round, 2009
9. Santos Rodriguez, LHP FA DR
10. David Holmberg, LHP 2nd Round, 2009
11. C.J. Retherford, 2B Undrafted

Bold=Drafted by CHW
Underlined= Picked up in Trade
Italic= Free Agent

We drafted 6/11 including 5 of them coming from the 2009 draft.

Danks and Morel were both drafted in 2008.

SoxNation05
11-17-2009, 10:16 PM
Danks and Morel were both drafted in 2008.
Thank you, I can't believe I did that. aha

gr8mexico
11-18-2009, 12:17 AM
1. Daniel Hudson, RHP 8th Round, 2008
2. Jared Mitchell, OF 1st Round, 2009
3. Tyler Flowers, C Trade ATL 33rd Round, 2005
4. Jordan Danks, CF 8th Round, 2008
5. Dayan Viciedo, 3B FA Cuba
6. Brent Morel, 3B 3rd Round, 2008
7. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP FA DR
8. Trayce Thompson, OF 2nd Round, 2009
9. Santos Rodriguez, LHP FA DR
10. David Holmberg, LHP 2nd Round, 2009
11. C.J. Retherford, 2B Undrafted

Bold=Drafted by CHW
Underlined= Picked up in Trade
Italic= Free Agent
I cant believe the White Sox had an amazing draft the last 2 years.
Now lets trade them Kenny for Adrian Gonzalez

doublem23
11-18-2009, 05:41 AM
I cant believe the White Sox had an amazing draft the last 2 years.
Now lets trade them Kenny for Adrian Gonzalez

It probably also speaks to how bare our system had gotten. I don't think one of these guys was in the organization before the start of 2008.

Craig Grebeck
11-18-2009, 06:00 AM
Here are some Sox-centric questions from the chat (the transcripts are viewable without subscription):

Kevin (London): Do you think Viciedo will become a productive major league player? An unimpressive slash line combined with poor scouting reports about defense/body type make it seem unlikely at this point, no? Sure, it's early, but there's little room for optimism outside of a small second half sample size and good reports about bat speed. Kevin Goldstein: There's also a pretty telling track record of Cuban players really struggling in their first year over in Estados Unidos. I still have some faith there, but he has to get into better physical condition.


Kevin (London): Thanks, KG. Have you heard much about Brent Morel's defense? He was voted the best defensive 3B in the Carolina League -- and the significance of that is debatable -- but Buddy Bell (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/bellbu01.php) has been pretty positive. Could Morel hope to become a left-handed Pedro Feliz (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Pedro+Feliz) if all goes well?
Kevin Goldstein: He's a solid to plus defender. Make the plays he gets to, and great fundamentals. He's nowhere near to Feliz defensively. Feliz is among the best of the generation there.


Eric (Memphis): Kevin, has Tyler Flowers (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/FLOWERS19860124A.php)' defense improved this year to the point where there are far fewer questions about his ability to stay behind the plate?
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely.


Mike (Chicago): To follow up on your answer to the Tyler Flowers (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/FLOWERS19860124A.php) question, if Flowers stays at catcher, does he max out as a solid regular, or is the potential higher than that?
Kevin Goldstein: I don't think he's be huge, but he'll be an above-average regular with power and patience making up for a lower batting average. Dude's swing is loaded with holes.


bkmhoxx (KC): How far behind Carlos Santana (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SANTANA19860408A.php) is Flowers?
Kevin Goldstein: Pretty darn far. If Santana was the kind of hitter he is and only played first base, he'd be a pretty special prospect, but he's a CATCHER.


martin (Leeds (England)): Jordan Danks, very impressive in the AFL, is that down to his injury healing up?
Kevin Goldstein: That, and the fact that it's Arizona, where everyone hits.


Rob (Rockford, IL ): Have you ever seen a prospect have a year like Dan Hudson?? What can we expect for an encore? Does he have any upside left?
Kevin Goldstein: It's funny. Like I wrote, he exploded, but many scouts also think he's close to maxed out.


Nick (IL): Before the draft, one prominent prospect site said scouts saw some of Mike Stanton (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Mike+Stanton) in Trayce Thompson. Is that crazy talk?
Kevin Goldstein: It's a TON to dream on, but boy is it risky.

BadBobbyJenks
11-18-2009, 07:14 AM
Was Jon Link ever in our top 10? Did he completely fall off this season?

EMachine10
11-18-2009, 07:22 AM
Was Jon Link ever in our top 10? Did he completely fall off this season?
He didn't appear to have a very good season. In terms of scouting, I don't know much about him at all.

russ99
11-18-2009, 10:31 AM
Interesting.

With the sleeper catcher coming out of Venezuela and Phlegley as a #2 draft pick this year already at prospect #13, I wonder if Kenny might dangle Flowers as trade bait this offseason...

Flowers wasn't impressive with the big club, but had a good season in the minors, so I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but I can't see any way he'd be replacing A.J. in 2010.

Also, I think Hudson has a bigger upside at this point than Richard had at the same time last offseason.

DirtySox
11-18-2009, 10:42 AM
Interesting.

With the sleeper catcher coming out of Venezuela and Phlegley as a #2 draft pick this year already at prospect #13, I wonder if Kenny might dangle Flowers as trade bait this offseason...

Flowers wasn't impressive with the big club, but had a good season in the minors, so I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but I can't see any way he'd be replacing A.J. in 2010.

Also, I think Hudson has a bigger upside at this point than Richard had at the same time last offseason.

Phegley and Rodriquez aren't even close to sure things, and are very far away.

Flowers has by all accounts improved dramatically behind the plate, and should be an adequate catcher. His stick is one of a slugger. He is going to strikeout a bunch, walk alot, and hit for power. He will be hitting for a low average with a high OBP and power to make up for it. A comp that is thrown around alot is Mike Napoli.

I think Flowers will be starting at the beginning of 2011, but wouldn't be surprised if he is called up sometime in 2010. This all depends on him not being traded of course.

DirtySox
11-18-2009, 10:53 AM
It probably also speaks to how bare our system had gotten. I don't think one of these guys was in the organization before the start of 2008.

Exactly. The Sox farm system is still not very good contrary to what many people seem to think. It's definitely in the lower third of all baseball. There is no depth at all, and there is/was no elite prospect after Beckham. Losing Poreda/Allen/Carter hurt, but they were certainly valuable trade chips and served a greater purpose. If Flowers/Hudson/3 star prospect(s) are packaged for a slugger this offseason, the system will be decimated and in a very sorry state. (Not that I'm against it) Here's hoping for a strong 2010 draft and the emergence of some diamonds in the rough from the 2009 class.

Oh, and I would be stoked if Trayce Thompson turns into the next Mike Stanton.

Domeshot17
11-18-2009, 12:21 PM
Disappointing chat log. The Flowers defense question, to hear how much he improved, was like, awesome maybe we have something special here, then to hear his swing isn't that great with a bunch of holes, its just 1 mans opinion, but sounds like we don't have a Victor Martinez calibur catcher here.

Craig Grebeck
11-18-2009, 12:26 PM
Disappointing chat log. The Flowers defense question, to hear how much he improved, was like, awesome maybe we have something special here, then to hear his swing isn't that great with a bunch of holes, its just 1 mans opinion, but sounds like we don't have a Victor Martinez calibur catcher here.
Well, duh. No one's ever hyped him that much. But considering our organization's inability to produce any quality major league catchers, having a guy similar to Mike Napoli would be a very good thing.

.240/.360/.440 would be pretty damn good with solid defense. Flowers has improved -- and that's not to say his defense has maxed out, but I can see him becoming a solid defender.

Edit: and it says a lot that KG would say Viciedo is starting at Charlotte. He has a lot of contacts around baseball and wouldn't use such concrete language if he didn't hear it from someone credible. I can definitely see the organization keeping Morel at 3B and in Birmingham for the entire campaign, and carrying on with the Viciedo at 3B experiment.

Domeshot17
11-18-2009, 01:41 PM
Well, duh. No one's ever hyped him that much. But considering our organization's inability to produce any quality major league catchers, having a guy similar to Mike Napoli would be a very good thing.

.240/.360/.440 would be pretty damn good with solid defense. Flowers has improved -- and that's not to say his defense has maxed out, but I can see him becoming a solid defender.

Edit: and it says a lot that KG would say Viciedo is starting at Charlotte. He has a lot of contacts around baseball and wouldn't use such concrete language if he didn't hear it from someone credible. I can definitely see the organization keeping Morel at 3B and in Birmingham for the entire campaign, and carrying on with the Viciedo at 3B experiment.

Just the way Flowers has been hyped you would think his bat was something SPECIAL and not just good (but that also could speak about our farm, especially offensively). I agree, you can live with 240-800 ops if Flowers D gets into the very strong range. That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.

oeo
11-18-2009, 01:45 PM
That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.

Exactly. I have to question these people. Last year he's a fat piece of **** with a great bat and terrible defense. Now he can become a plus defender but his bat is pretty crappy? How often do these guys actually see them play or do they just make broad assumptions? Sounds like they get conflicting reports from scouts (no surprise) and take what they want from it.

Craig Grebeck
11-18-2009, 02:07 PM
Just the way Flowers has been hyped you would think his bat was something SPECIAL and not just good (but that also could speak about our farm, especially offensively). I agree, you can live with 240-800 ops if Flowers D gets into the very strong range. That said, people were hyping Flowers bat as playing well at 1st or DH if he didn't make it as a C, and clearly if those are his projections, he needs to stay as a C to really hold his value.
His bat is special for a catcher. I think his floor in the league is a .750 OPS catcher with okay defense. That's top ten production in the league.

People who hyped that are looking at his ceiling, which could very well be an .875 OPS. Perhaps they were overzealous, perhaps we learn more about a player's offensive/defensive ability as they progress through higher levels. I tend to agree with the latter.
Exactly. I have to question these people. Last year he's a fat piece of **** with a great bat and terrible defense. Now he can become a plus defender but his bat is pretty crappy? How often do these guys actually see them play or do they just make broad assumptions? Sounds like they get conflicting reports from scouts (no surprise) and take what they want from it.
Players change, OEO. As I stated earlier, you learn more about a player the more they progress through the minor leagues.

EMachine10
11-18-2009, 02:12 PM
Phegley and Rodriquez aren't even close to sure things, and are very far away.

Flowers has by all accounts improved dramatically behind the plate, and should be an adequate catcher. His stick is one of a slugger. He is going to strikeout a bunch, walk alot, and hit for power. He will be hitting for a low average with a high OBP and power to make up for it. A comp that is thrown around alot is Mike Napoli.

I think Flowers will be starting at the beginning of 2011, but wouldn't be surprised if he is called up sometime in 2010. This all depends on him not being traded of course.
I always think Napoli when I think Flowers.

oeo
11-18-2009, 03:27 PM
His bat is special for a catcher. I think his floor in the league is a .750 OPS catcher with okay defense. That's top ten production in the league.

People who hyped that are looking at his ceiling, which could very well be an .875 OPS. Perhaps they were overzealous, perhaps we learn more about a player's offensive/defensive ability as they progress through higher levels. I tend to agree with the latter.

Players change, OEO. As I stated earlier, you learn more about a player the more they progress through the minor leagues.

Obviously they change, but this is quite the drastic turn. He's gone from one extreme to the other. If their projections change that much from year to year, how can you trust it?

Besides the point, however, because this still doesn't answer my question. How much of these opinions come from actually seeing the player and how much come from just collecting opinions of scouts (there's never a number, just 'some' scouts, 'many' scouts, 'multiple' scouts) and drawing a conclusion?

Craig Grebeck
11-18-2009, 03:53 PM
Obviously they change, but this is quite the drastic turn. He's gone from one extreme to the other. If their projections change that much from year to year, how can you trust it?
Even with massive holes in his swing, if Flowers were to ever come anywhere near (.1-.125) his minor league OPS in the majors, he'd be a very good catcher. They aren't projections, they are evaluations.

Besides the point, however, because this still doesn't answer my question. How much of these opinions come from actually seeing the player and how much come from just collecting opinions of scouts (there's never a number, just 'some' scouts, 'many' scouts, 'multiple' scouts) and drawing a conclusion?
It depends on the talent evaluator, but I know that Goldstein watches tape and talks to a ton of scouts.

jabrch
11-18-2009, 04:38 PM
It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.

DirtySox
11-18-2009, 04:41 PM
It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.

I can't wait for Phil Rogers' White Sox top 10.

Craig Grebeck
11-18-2009, 05:03 PM
It's baseball prospectus guys. This is 50% worthless horsecrap mixed with guesses and halfbaked evaluations and an occasional eyeballing.

I'm waiting to see what BA says. They have much more credibility in my eyes than BP.
Yes, anyone that employs Phil Rogers certainly has more credibility than Kevin Goldstein. So do you have any specific problems with KG as a talent evaluator, or are you just spewing bull****?

tm1119
11-18-2009, 05:54 PM
Yes, anyone that employs Phil Rogers certainly has more credibility than Kevin Goldstein. So do you have any specific problems with KG as a talent evaluator, or are you just spewing bull****?

Well obviously hes not praising everything White Sox so its gotta be BS.

I thought the evaluations were pretty legit. Obviously anything can happen, but to say that those evaluations are flat out wrong is pretty ridiculous.

oeo
11-19-2009, 05:39 PM
Well obviously hes not praising everything White Sox so its gotta be BS.

I thought the evaluations were pretty legit. Obviously anything can happen, but to say that those evaluations are flat out wrong is pretty ridiculous.

Wrong? No, but they hardly deserve a ton of merit. They're basically giving you the what but not the why.