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View Full Version : Nice SI article on Kenny Williams moves for this year and next


chisox59
09-22-2009, 12:19 AM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tim_marchman/09/19/peavy.start/index.html

ramblinsoxfan11
09-22-2009, 02:25 AM
Solid article, they really ripped apart Rios though, maybe he'll read it and get inspiration to hit the ball. I resent the Southside being referred to as the "rust belt" of Chicago... ehh what can you do

To 2010 :gulp:

To 2009... :whiner:

oeo
09-22-2009, 04:47 AM
Finally someone realizes the long term of these moves. The rest will take note when the Sox rotation is shutting down everyone night after night in 2010. Chicago writers, take note: this guy has his stuff together.

g0g0
09-22-2009, 09:07 AM
Great article! I can't wait for 2010. It got me fired up for next season!

Madvora
09-22-2009, 09:35 AM
I don't get the comment about Getz doing more at the bottom of the article. He's hitting .269 which is average for any major leaguer and this guy is a rookie. When I see comments like that I wonder what the expectations were for a rookie second baseman that you never heard of before.

dickallen15
09-22-2009, 10:14 AM
Finally someone realizes the long term of these moves. The rest will take note when the Sox rotation is shutting down everyone night after night in 2010. Chicago writers, take note: this guy has his stuff together.


The White Sox are 11 games under .500 vs. the AL this year. Adding Jake Peavy suddenly doesn't make the team a WS contender. I think the future looks pretty good, but the Sox rotation has more quality starts than any other rotation and the team has been below average. KW needs to make a few moves this offseason.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 11:16 AM
I don't get the comment about Getz doing more at the bottom of the article. He's hitting .269 which is average for any major leaguer and this guy is a rookie. When I see comments like that I wonder what the expectations were for a rookie second baseman that you never heard of before.

Hitting .269 is one thing (and it's pretty underwhelming). But of his 98 hits, 74 are singles. That's a pretty ridiculous ratio, especially for someone hitting about league average.

I know why people like him. But he's not that talented. Beckham has all the same intangibles, and he's good at baseball. Both are important, but they're not close to equal.

khan
09-22-2009, 11:21 AM
The White Sox are 11 games under .500 vs. the AL this year. Adding Jake Peavy suddenly doesn't make the team a WS contender. I think the future looks pretty good, but the Sox rotation has more quality starts than any other rotation and the team has been below average. KW needs to make a few moves this offseason.

I think this is a fair point. However, Jake Peavy over the course of his career is 93-68 in the regular season for a .577 win%. I think Peavy and Torres or Hudson being in the rotation vs. Colon/Richard/Contreras by themselves is enough to bring the team closer to .500 in the AL.

Dropping the strikeout king Josh Fields in favor of Beckham has GOT to be worth a win or two as well.

Either keeping Pods or sigining another proper leadoff man [my preferred solution] instead of Wise has GOT to be worth another win or two over the course of 2010.

Of course, KW will:
1. have to cobble together a bullpen,
2. the OF will have to be sorted out [I don't believe that Kotsay is all that good; I think he's playing for ANY MLB job next year],
3. the rotation will have to remain healthy/strong [most quality starts in the AL this year, WITHOUT Peavy, BTW],
4. and Rios will have to [EDIT]put together a good year next year.

In sum, I think that putting together a contender for 2010 is well within KW's grasp and budgetary constraints. Though it will take some doing on his part.

Palehose Pete
09-22-2009, 11:26 AM
Wow, Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd as the front four in the Sox rotation next year, all 28 years old.

Me likey.

beasly213
09-22-2009, 11:29 AM
Hitting .269 is one thing (and it's pretty underwhelming). But of his 98 hits, 74 are singles. That's a pretty ridiculous ratio, especially for someone hitting about league average.

I know why people like him. But he's not that talented. Beckham has all the same intangibles, and he's good at baseball. Both are important, but they're not close to equal.

I agree with you somewhat on Getz. However what has impressed me this season about him is he has decided to become a threat on the basepaths. He picks his moments when to steal and has had great success doing it. What's also nice is he is almost doing it under the radar. Now I know that won't last long if he keeps up his ratio of Stealing vs. Caught Stealing but for a little while he can become a nice asset batting 9th and getting into scoring position for our top of the lineup next year.

kjhanson
09-22-2009, 11:29 AM
I don't get the comment about Getz doing more at the bottom of the article. He's hitting .269 which is average for any major leaguer and this guy is a rookie. When I see comments like that I wonder what the expectations were for a rookie second baseman that you never heard of before.

Yeah, I'm not sure what more you'd want from a 2B with less than 375 MLB at-bats. He's 25 for 27 in stolen bases, which is oustanding. If you projected his 364 ABs to a full season of 600, here's his line:
.270 3 HR 51 RBI 30 2B 6 3B and 41 SB, while having above average range on the infield. He's also a .300 hitter (140 OPS+!) with 2 Outs & RISP, with only 5 SOs in 40 ABs.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 11:47 AM
I agree with you somewhat on Getz. However what has impressed me this season about him is he has decided to become a threat on the basepaths. He picks his moments when to steal and has had great success doing it. What's also nice is he is almost doing it under the radar. Now I know that won't last long if he keeps up his ratio of Stealing vs. Caught Stealing but for a little while he can become a nice asset batting 9th and getting into scoring position for our top of the lineup next year.

But do stolen bases make up for having absolutely no power? Or hitting merely league average? Or even just a tad better than average? Maybe if he was a crazy base stealer...but the under the radar comment is telling. Because he's not a 70+ stolen base guy. Can you afford a guy in your lineup who doesn't hit for good average or any power at all simply because he'll steal a moderate amount of bases?

Yeah, I'm not sure what more you'd want from a 2B with less than 375 MLB at-bats. He's 25 for 27 in stolen bases, which is oustanding. If you projected his 364 ABs to a full season of 600, here's his line:
.270 3 HR 51 RBI 30 2B 6 3B and 41 SB, while having above average range on the infield. He's also a .300 hitter (140 OPS+!) with 2 Outs & RISP, with only 5 SOs in 40 ABs.

That line over 600 at bats makes me want to vomit in my mouth (39 xbh in 600 at bats!!!!). His numbers with 2 outs and RISP will serve him well in his future role as a utility man/pinch hitter.

kjhanson
09-22-2009, 11:51 AM
But of his 98 hits, 74 are singles. That's a pretty ridiculous ratio, especially for someone hitting about league average.


24.5% of Chris' hits have gone for XBs
22.9% of Chone Figgins' hits have gone for XBs (22.1% career)

I also think it's important to note that Chris is 19 for 20 stealing 2B, so in essence, he has created an XBH on 19.4% of his hits. Adjust for the one CS at 2B, and in 42 of 98 hits (43%) have gone for XBs or he has turned them into XBs. He won't drive in runs with any of his SBs, but he'll certainly put himself in a position to score more runs, which is what he's out there to do.

southside rocks
09-22-2009, 11:55 AM
Wow, Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd as the front four in the Sox rotation next year, all 28 years old.

Me likey.

They're only all 28 years old if you're averaging. :tongue:

MB will be 31 on Opening Day 2010; Danks will be 25 shortly after Opening Day; Floyd will be 27; and Peavy will be 28, turning 29 in May 2010.

dickallen15
09-22-2009, 11:59 AM
Hitting .269 is one thing (and it's pretty underwhelming). But of his 98 hits, 74 are singles. That's a pretty ridiculous ratio, especially for someone hitting about league average.

I know why people like him. But he's not that talented. Beckham has all the same intangibles, and he's good at baseball. Both are important, but they're not close to equal.

Yet Pods was praised in 2005 when 118 of his 147 hits were singles and only one of his extra base hits wasn't a double. He stole 59 but was gunned down 23 times. I like the 25-2 ratio a little better.

beasly213
09-22-2009, 12:07 PM
But do stolen bases make up for having absolutely no power? Or hitting merely league average? Or even just a tad better than average? Maybe if he was a crazy base stealer...but the under the radar comment is telling. Because he's not a 70+ stolen base guy. Can you afford a guy in your lineup who doesn't hit for good average or any power at all simply because he'll steal a moderate amount of bases?



That line over 600 at bats makes me want to vomit in my mouth (39 xbh in 600 at bats!!!!). His numbers with 2 outs and RISP will serve him well in his future role as a utility man/pinch hitter.

Yes absolutely you can afford to have that guy in your lineup if he is batting near the bottom 8 or 9 and is getting on base. If you look around the league no team has a top to bottom lineup that every guy is hitting above the league average. Having guys at the bottom of your lineup that can hit around .270 is something most teams would die for. I'm not saying he is a great player but he is more than fine hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 12:12 PM
But do stolen bases make up for having absolutely no power? Or hitting merely league average? Or even just a tad better than average? Maybe if he was a crazy base stealer...but the under the radar comment is telling. Because he's not a 70+ stolen base guy. Can you afford a guy in your lineup who doesn't hit for good average or any power at all simply because he'll steal a moderate amount of bases?

In the 8 or 9 slot yes, the Sox can afford that especially at league minimum for the next two years allowing them to spend money elsewhere.

Add in Nix as the platoon guy against LHP (which he puts up a .800+ OPS against) and 2B becomes a low priority fix compared to RF and bullpen.

Remember the Sox are going to have to give Danks and TCQ substantial raises and of course there's Bobby to deal with also. If they want Pods back that sucks up even more money before even looking to fill those RF and bullpen slots.

In addition, one would expect that Getz might actually improve a bit as this was his rookie season.

If the Sox didn't have more pressing concerns then yeah, an upgrade at 2B would be cool, but for the money and given other factors, Getz works out well.

Palehose Pete
09-22-2009, 12:38 PM
They're only all 28 years old if you're averaging. :tongue:

MB will be 31 on Opening Day 2010; Danks will be 25 shortly after Opening Day; Floyd will be 27; and Peavy will be 28, turning 29 in May 2010.

Good point. :tongue:

Me still likey!

doublem23
09-22-2009, 01:02 PM
Yes absolutely you can afford to have that guy in your lineup if he is batting near the bottom 8 or 9 and is getting on base. If you look around the league no team has a top to bottom lineup that every guy is hitting above the league average. Having guys at the bottom of your lineup that can hit around .270 is something most teams would die for. I'm not saying he is a great player but he is more than fine hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup.

Exactly. If we had a lineup stacked like the Yankees, perhaps you could make an argument that Getz is insufficient, but there are plenty of holes on this roster that needs attention. Getz has been fabulous this year and he can definitely be the starting 2B and 8/9 hitter on a winning team.

Hitmen77
09-22-2009, 01:54 PM
Yes absolutely you can afford to have that guy in your lineup if he is batting near the bottom 8 or 9 and is getting on base. If you look around the league no team has a top to bottom lineup that every guy is hitting above the league average. Having guys at the bottom of your lineup that can hit around .270 is something most teams would die for. I'm not saying he is a great player but he is more than fine hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup.

In the 8 or 9 slot yes, the Sox can afford that especially at league minimum for the next two years allowing them to spend money elsewhere.

Add in Nix as the platoon guy against LHP (which he puts up a .800+ OPS against) and 2B becomes a low priority fix compared to RF and bullpen.

Remember the Sox are going to have to give Danks and TCQ substantial raises and of course there's Bobby to deal with also. If they want Pods back that sucks up even more money before even looking to fill those RF and bullpen slots.

In addition, one would expect that Getz might actually improve a bit as this was his rookie season.

If the Sox didn't have more pressing concerns then yeah, an upgrade at 2B would be cool, but for the money and given other factors, Getz works out well.

Exactly. If we had a lineup stacked like the Yankees, perhaps you could make an argument that Getz is insufficient, but there are plenty of holes on this roster that needs attention. Getz has been fabulous this year and he can definitely be the starting 2B and 8/9 hitter on a winning team.

Thank you for actually putting the whole Getz argument into perspective. This team has a couple of significant holes to fill in the heart of our batting lineup next year, bullpen issues to sort out, and a limited amount of extra payroll with which to do this......and yet they should dump Getz and replace him with a $5-7 million Orlando Hudson-type player?

KenBerryGrab
09-22-2009, 02:04 PM
And that O. Hudson bargain the Dodgers got doesn't look as good now as he's been benched in place of Ronnie Belliard (!)

soxinem1
09-22-2009, 02:17 PM
Yet Pods was praised in 2005 when 118 of his 147 hits were singles and only one of his extra base hits wasn't a double. He stole 59 but was gunned down 23 times. I like the 25-2 ratio a little better.

I agree totally. The end result has a way of distorting things. Pods has actually been a far more productive hitter and base-stealer (SB %, that is) this year versus 2005.

Getz will be a real starting 2B at the MLB level.

oeo
09-22-2009, 02:27 PM
The White Sox are 11 games under .500 vs. the AL this year. Adding Jake Peavy suddenly doesn't make the team a WS contender. I think the future looks pretty good, but the Sox rotation has more quality starts than any other rotation and the team has been below average. KW needs to make a few moves this offseason.

I didn't say the team is ready to go, I said the rotation was. There are still holes to fill, but less than in years past. However, you do need to realize there are guys who have had downright bad years as well as rookies who should both improve. This team is close, just needs some more tweaks...there's an entire offseason for that.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 04:32 PM
24.5% of Chris' hits have gone for XBs
22.9% of Chone Figgins' hits have gone for XBs (22.1% career)

I also think it's important to note that Chris is 19 for 20 stealing 2B, so in essence, he has created an XBH on 19.4% of his hits. Adjust for the one CS at 2B, and in 42 of 98 hits (43%) have gone for XBs or he has turned them into XBs. He won't drive in runs with any of his SBs, but he'll certainly put himself in a position to score more runs, which is what he's out there to do.

Making SB's count as extra base hits is a little bit of stretched logic, because it rely's on the next hitter to take pitches, which generally means it's only an "extra base hit" when the next hitter is down in the count.

Chris isn't that fast. I think once word gets around the league that steal percentage isn't going to get any better. I don't think he's capable of 40 steals in a season.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 04:33 PM
Making SB's count as extra base hits is a little bit of stretched logic, because it rely's on the next hitter to take pitches, which generally means it's only an "extra base hit" when the next hitter is down in the count.

Chris isn't that fast. I think once word gets around the league that steal percentage isn't going to get any better. I don't think he's capable of 40 steals in a season.

Just to be picky, it would be damned hard to improve on that steal percentage at all...

munchman33
09-22-2009, 04:34 PM
Yet Pods was praised in 2005 when 118 of his 147 hits were singles and only one of his extra base hits wasn't a double. He stole 59 but was gunned down 23 times. I like the 25-2 ratio a little better.

Ummm...Pods also hit .290 and had an OBP above .350. Couple that with more steals (and more speed in general), it's laughable to make a comparison to Getz.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 04:40 PM
Yes absolutely you can afford to have that guy in your lineup if he is batting near the bottom 8 or 9 and is getting on base. If you look around the league no team has a top to bottom lineup that every guy is hitting above the league average. Having guys at the bottom of your lineup that can hit around .270 is something most teams would die for. I'm not saying he is a great player but he is more than fine hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup.

In the 8 or 9 slot yes, the Sox can afford that especially at league minimum for the next two years allowing them to spend money elsewhere.

Add in Nix as the platoon guy against LHP (which he puts up a .800+ OPS against) and 2B becomes a low priority fix compared to RF and bullpen.

Remember the Sox are going to have to give Danks and TCQ substantial raises and of course there's Bobby to deal with also. If they want Pods back that sucks up even more money before even looking to fill those RF and bullpen slots.

In addition, one would expect that Getz might actually improve a bit as this was his rookie season.

If the Sox didn't have more pressing concerns then yeah, an upgrade at 2B would be cool, but for the money and given other factors, Getz works out well.

We could very likely get a better than league average 2B for a few million and no long term commitment this offseason. I'm also not thrilled with keeping Beckham at 3B to get Getz in the lineup, as he is not a plus bat at 3B.

I don't expect Getz to improve much. He's already pretty old as prospects go. This was his make or break year to show he belonged in the majors. He showed just enough to stay. He hasn't done anything that screams "pencil me in everyday." His performance was that of a stop gap. You replace those when you find something better. Something better is in the infield already.

Zisk77
09-22-2009, 04:41 PM
But do stolen bases make up for having absolutely no power? Or hitting merely league average? Or even just a tad better than average? Maybe if he was a crazy base stealer...but the under the radar comment is telling. Because he's not a 70+ stolen base guy. Can you afford a guy in your lineup who doesn't hit for good average or any power at all simply because he'll steal a moderate amount of bases?




That line over 600 at bats makes me want to vomit in my mouth (39 xbh in 600 at bats!!!!). His numbers with 2 outs and RISP will serve him well in his future role as a utility man/pinch hitter.

No, sb by themeselves probably not. But consider he doesn't strikeout and many of his outs are higly productive...unlike the slow pitch softball team we have been fielding for the past few years.

I'm not worried about that at all considering how many shots I've seen him hit that were just deep lineouts. as he matures those are extra base hits. i think Chris can become a .300 or thereabouts if he can lay off high fb's and sliders down & in.

ike from nj
09-22-2009, 04:41 PM
In the 8 or 9 slot yes, the Sox can afford that especially at league minimum for the next two years allowing them to spend money elsewhere.

Add in Nix as the platoon guy against LHP (which he puts up a .800+ OPS against) and 2B becomes a low priority fix compared to RF and bullpen.

Remember the Sox are going to have to give Danks and TCQ substantial raises and of course there's Bobby to deal with also. If they want Pods back that sucks up even more money before even looking to fill those RF and bullpen slots.

In addition, one would expect that Getz might actually improve a bit as this was his rookie season.

If the Sox didn't have more pressing concerns then yeah, an upgrade at 2B would be cool, but for the money and given other factors, Getz works out well.
the sox are going to deal with bobby by getting rid of him. they would be crazy to pay him big money. you can get the same results for a lot less.

oeo
09-22-2009, 04:51 PM
Ummm...Pods also hit .290 and had an OBP above .350. Couple that with more steals (and more speed in general), it's laughable to make a comparison to Getz.

Ummm...Getz is also in his first year. Take out his terrible May and Getz is right around that average and OBP.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 04:54 PM
We could very likely get a better than league average 2B for a few million and no long term commitment this offseason. I'm also not thrilled with keeping Beckham at 3B to get Getz in the lineup, as he is not a plus bat at 3B.

I don't expect Getz to improve much. He's already pretty old as prospects go. This was his make or break year to show he belonged in the majors. He showed just enough to stay. He hasn't done anything that screams "pencil me in everyday." His performance was that of a stop gap. You replace those when you find something better. Something better is in the infield already.

Again, that money could be better spent elsewhere, IMO. In addition, I'd expect Beckham to become a better hitter in the years to come. He won't be learning a new position on the job and he can be taught a home run cut to use when the situation warrants. You are making the assumption that neither of these players will improve. I find that unlikely.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 05:01 PM
the sox are going to deal with bobby by getting rid of him. they would be crazy to pay him big money. you can get the same results for a lot less.

Well the question is how much of Bobby's midseason struggles were due to his kidney stone issue.. Other than that stretch he had an alright season. The Sox paid him $5M this past season. He won't get much of a raise based on his stats, IMO. In fact, I'd imagine he'd be willing to sign a 2-3 year deal for the rest of arbitration and another year out of fear of injury. Is he worth $15-18M for the next 3 years? Will he revert to 2008 form or continue to decline? Is his drop in speed at the end of this season a long term issue or once again tied to his midseason illness sapping his strength and never getting the chance to recover?

Those are the questions the Sox are going to have to answer. I'm not interested in replacing Bobby with another version of 2009 Bobby for cheaper money. I'd rather have a good closer and spend for it the question remains, "is that closer Bobby?"

kjhanson
09-22-2009, 05:12 PM
Making SB's count as extra base hits is a little bit of stretched logic, because it rely's on the next hitter to take pitches, which generally means it's only an "extra base hit" when the next hitter is down in the count.

Chris isn't that fast. I think once word gets around the league that steal percentage isn't going to get any better. I don't think he's capable of 40 steals in a season.

I'm not proposing a phone call to MLB to ask them to change how XBHs are recorded. Instead, I'm trying to make light of the fact that a player with above average speed and base-stealing technique should not be dismissed because they "only hit singles". This is easily seen by answering the following question: Who would you rather see lead off an inning with a single? Chris Getz or Paul Konerko? If you answered Getz, it's because his single has more potential value than Konerko's because of his ability to steal and run. If you answered Konerko, it's possible that you have an unhealthy crush on him.

I would put Chris' speed in the top 20% of major leaguers. I don't think he's blazing fast, but he'd win a lot of foot-races. That's my opinion, however. Your next statement is one of complete absurdity - and that's a fact. Why would Chris get thrown out more once teams realize he's not Usain Bolt? Do you really think they're going to try harder because they think he's slower than they originally thought? Answer that one candidly; please.

kjhanson
09-22-2009, 05:31 PM
We could very likely get a better than league average 2B for a few million and no long term commitment this offseason. I'm also not thrilled with keeping Beckham at 3B to get Getz in the lineup, as he is not a plus bat at 3B.


It's obvious that your intention with the second half of this post is to get a rise out of everyone, seeing as how the 23 year-old Beckham ranks 10th among ML 3B in OPS.

While your second statement was an obvious attempt at immaturity, your first comment was a strong attempt at ignorance. The market for above average 2B was set by Orlando Hudson this past off-season. The details? $3.4MM guranteed. The cap? Around $8.5MM. And these were all PA milestones. Once he hit 400 PA (where Chris is at now), he was over $5.5MM. He's currently sitting just above $8MM, simply for appearing at the plate 595 times and being a (slightly) above average 2B.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 05:45 PM
Ummm...Getz is also in his first year. Take out his terrible May and Getz is right around that average and OBP.

He's also old and has a ton of development time already.

Also, can I take away his most productive month to prove my point? It only seems fair...

munchman33
09-22-2009, 05:51 PM
Again, that money could be better spent elsewhere, IMO. In addition, I'd expect Beckham to become a better hitter in the years to come. He won't be learning a new position on the job and he can be taught a home run cut to use when the situation warrants. You are making the assumption that neither of these players will improve. I find that unlikely.

Well, I base my assumptions about whether or not someone will continue to improve on their talent. Getz hasn't shown me anything to make me think he'll hit for a higher average or slug better. He doesn't scream "I have talent." He screams "I make the most of my abilities." And that "most of my abilities" wasn't really all that good.

You'd rather not move Beckham to 2B where he'd be more comfortable and has the physical talent to play plus defense at? And then sign a 3B who can put up good numbers from that position (like a Figgins or a Beltre, for example?) It'll be a lot easier to get a cheap option in the OF and at DH. Just look at the free agent class, there aren't enough jobs for all the good players out there. Why save money on the infield?

munchman33
09-22-2009, 05:53 PM
I'm not worried about that at all considering how many shots I've seen him hit that were just deep lineouts. as he matures those are extra base hits.

Nothing says "quantitative proof" quite like the old, "I seen him do this all the time, I swear!" :rolleyes:

I've seen him ground out lots too. What does that mean?

munchman33
09-22-2009, 05:56 PM
It's obvious that your intention with the second half of this post is to get a rise out of everyone, seeing as how the 23 year-old Beckham ranks 10th among ML 3B in OPS.


Wow. For two months his OPS is barely top third in baseball at 3B and you're ready to call my comments inflammatory?

I think the world of Gordon. I just don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat you'd like to see from a marquee corner IF.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 06:00 PM
Well, I base my assumptions about whether or not someone will continue to improve on their talent. Getz hasn't shown me anything to make me think he'll hit for a higher average or slug better. He doesn't scream "I have talent." He screams "I make the most of my abilities." And that "most of my abilities" wasn't really all that good.

You'd rather not move Beckham to 2B where he'd be more comfortable and has the physical talent to play plus defense at? And then sign a 3B who can put up good numbers from that position (like a Figgins or a Beltre, for example?) It'll be a lot easier to get a cheap option in the OF and at DH. Just look at the free agent class, there aren't enough jobs for all the good players out there. Why save money on the infield?

Because I think RF and bullpen are bigger need positions and I don't think the Sox are going to dramatically increase payroll. Right now including raises for Danks and TCQ and assuming they are going to re-sign Bobby, they just don't have that much money to play with. If they re-sign Pods too, they are probably right up against this year's total payroll before signing anyone to play RF. That means both Dye and Thome aren't replaced at the moment and the money is already spent.

Now if they increase payroll then they can start to tackle those other issues, but on that list I'd put infield upgrade about 4th.

voodoochile
09-22-2009, 06:01 PM
Wow. For two months his OPS is barely top third in baseball at 3B and you're ready to call my comments inflammatory?

I think the world of Gordon. I just don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat you'd like to see from a marquee corner IF.

I'll be surprised if he doesn't get to 25 HR with close to 50 doubles based on his first year performance.

CWSpalehoseCWS
09-22-2009, 06:08 PM
Good article. I'm anxious to see what happens this offseason though.

kjhanson
09-22-2009, 06:15 PM
Wow. For two months his OPS is barely top third in baseball at 3B and you're ready to call my comments inflammatory?

I think the world of Gordon. I just don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat you'd like to see from a marquee corner IF.

Please clarify which type of threat you want Gordon to be. In the post I responded to, you remarked that he does not have a plus bat - in nearly four full months, mind you (not two). After I prove to you that he does have a plus bat, you backtrack and say you don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat like a marquee corner. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the words "plus" and "marquee" aren't generally interchangeable in a scouting report.

I should also point out that exactly one (Just one!) 3B meets your criteria for being a marquee corner (on pace for at least 35 HR). By your logic all 3B not named Mark Reynolds should report to a middle infield position immediately. Except for of course the powerful Chone Figgins and the immortal Adrian Beltre, whom you have placed on your 3B wishlist instead. Funny story: Gordon has more home runs than both of them combined.

Zisk77
09-22-2009, 07:37 PM
Nothing says "quantitative proof" quite like the old, "I seen him do this all the time, I swear!" :rolleyes:

I've seen him ground out lots too. What does that mean?

Sorry i watched every game this year and gave qualitative proof. I forgot going 3 for 10 means you are a better hitter than 1 for 10 even if 7 of those balls were hit on the nose but at guys and those 3 hits were nick punto special inf hits.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 08:18 PM
Because I think RF and bullpen are bigger need positions and I don't think the Sox are going to dramatically increase payroll. Right now including raises for Danks and TCQ and assuming they are going to re-sign Bobby, they just don't have that much money to play with. If they re-sign Pods too, they are probably right up against this year's total payroll before signing anyone to play RF. That means both Dye and Thome aren't replaced at the moment and the money is already spent.

Now if they increase payroll then they can start to tackle those other issues, but on that list I'd put infield upgrade about 4th.

I'm running on the assumption that someone who can play RF will fall into the $5-7 million range and an everyday DH could be had for less than 5 (perhaps significantly less, given the incredibly flooded market and lack of jobs). I'd rather spend more money on a 3B and shift Beckham over. I might be wrong about the market, but it's hard to look at the guys coming off the books versus open everyday jobs that will be available and not think we can patch the OF for a lot less money.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 08:20 PM
Please clarify which type of threat you want Gordon to be. In the post I responded to, you remarked that he does not have a plus bat - in nearly four full months, mind you (not two). After I prove to you that he does have a plus bat, you backtrack and say you don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat like a marquee corner. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the words "plus" and "marquee" aren't generally interchangeable in a scouting report.

I should also point out that exactly one (Just one!) 3B meets your criteria for being a marquee corner (on pace for at least 35 HR). By your logic all 3B not named Mark Reynolds should report to a middle infield position immediately. Except for of course the powerful Chone Figgins and the immortal Adrian Beltre, whom you have placed on your 3B wishlist instead. Funny story: Gordon has more home runs than both of them combined.

Marquee and plus are not interchangeable in scouting reports.

Let's look at it this way. Beckham is a perennial all star putting up his numbers at 2B. He is a all-star at 3B only sometimes, and it would probably take some lobbying.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 08:21 PM
Sorry i watched every game this year and gave qualitative proof. I forgot going 3 for 10 means you are a better hitter than 1 for 10 even if 7 of those balls were hit on the nose but at guys and those 3 hits were nick punto special inf hits.

Okay...how about I disagree with your "qualitative proof?" :shrug:

Daver
09-22-2009, 08:33 PM
Wow. For two months his OPS is barely top third in baseball at 3B and you're ready to call my comments inflammatory?

I think the world of Gordon. I just don't think he's a consistent 35-40 homer threat you'd like to see from a marquee corner IF.

If you are basing IFer's on their offensive ability then your whole approach is misguided and obtuse to begin with.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 08:49 PM
If you are basing IFer's on their offensive ability then your whole approach is misguided and obtuse to begin with.

Getz's defense is nothing to write home about. Why quote me? Everyone else is doing it too. I'd much rather have Beckham at second because it's a more important defensive position and his skills would be better than average there. That's why I said he'd be "more comfortable" there.

Craig Grebeck
09-22-2009, 08:53 PM
Getz's defense is nothing to write home about. Why quote me? Everyone else is doing it too. I'd much rather have Beckham at second because it's a more important defensive position and his skills would be better than average there. That's why I said he'd be "more comfortable" there.
Agree 100%. This is a better team with Beckham at 2B and a proficient defensive 3B on the corner (who will hopefully keep it warm for, cross my fingers, Brent Morel).

Daver
09-22-2009, 09:00 PM
I'd much rather have Beckham at second because it's a more important defensive position

Based on what? And don't answer historically because it doesn't mean a damn thing. You build your defense around your pitching staff and their tendencies, not by baseball trends that say this is where you need your defensive strength. If your staff forces a lot of ground balls to the left side of the infield then you want your best defenders there, it's not rocket surgery.

Brian26
09-22-2009, 09:14 PM
This is all a moot point because the organization has said that Beckham is at 3B to stay.

Frater Perdurabo
09-22-2009, 09:47 PM
I agree with you somewhat on Getz. However what has impressed me this season about him is he has decided to become a threat on the basepaths. He picks his moments when to steal and has had great success doing it. What's also nice is he is almost doing it under the radar. Now I know that won't last long if he keeps up his ratio of Stealing vs. Caught Stealing but for a little while he can become a nice asset batting 9th and getting into scoring position for our top of the lineup next year.

I agree. Hitting a single (or walking) and then stealing second is almost as good as hitting a double.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 10:08 PM
Based on what? And don't answer historically because it doesn't mean a damn thing. You build your defense around your pitching staff and their tendencies, not by baseball trends that say this is where you need your defensive strength. If your staff forces a lot of ground balls to the left side of the infield then you want your best defenders there, it's not rocket surgery.

Do you have any proof that the 3B position sees more ground balls, either historically or presently? I seriously doubt that's the case.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 10:09 PM
This is all a moot point because the organization has said that Beckham is at 3B to stay.

And last year Alexei was our 2B to stay.

Daver
09-22-2009, 10:14 PM
Do you have any proof that the 3B position sees more ground balls, either historically or presently? I seriously doubt that's the case.

If Josh Fields was merely competent at the position he would have stayed there despite his struggles at the plate, the fact that he failed on both sides is why he was demoted. If you want it broke down to minutiae do it yourself, I have no time for mental masturbation.

PhillipsBubba
09-22-2009, 10:19 PM
When the Sox master the art of catching the ball and throwing it to the correct base and learn how to conduct a rundown...I'll get excited!

TheVulture
09-22-2009, 11:06 PM
Marquee and plus are not interchangeable in scouting reports.


Wow.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r115/subgenius88/wonka2.gif

munchman33
09-22-2009, 11:12 PM
Wow.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r115/subgenius88/wonka2.gif

No, that's by definition. Plus refers to stellar or high. Marquee means top or best. Clearly different, and if you doubt it check how many times the word marquee shows up in a scouting report. Because it doesn't happen very often.

munchman33
09-22-2009, 11:14 PM
If Josh Fields was merely competent at the position he would have stayed there despite his struggles at the plate, the fact that he failed on both sides is why he was demoted. If you want it broke down to minutiae do it yourself, I have no time for mental masturbation.

Are you arguing with me just to argue? Am I pro Josh Fields?

The only two names other than Getz or Beckham I brought up were Beltre and Figgins, both of which are better than Beckham defensively at 3B.

GoSox2K3
09-22-2009, 11:40 PM
And last year Alexei was our 2B to stay.

:rolleyes: No he wasn't. But why let facts stop you.

Why will I not be surprised if I check back tomorrow morning and there's 50 more posts on this thread containing or responding to your ridculous comments.

Another thread driven into the ground by munch......:shakehead:

GoSox2K3
09-22-2009, 11:42 PM
He's also old and has a ton of development time already.

:thud: OMG!!! Getz is too old! We should DFA his ass right now!

Also, can I take away his most productive month to prove my point? It only seems fair... No it doesn't.

Brian26
09-22-2009, 11:45 PM
And last year Alexei was our 2B to stay.

I disagree. The plan all along was that Cabrera was going to leave in free agency and the Sox were going to collect a high draft pick. Alexei established himself pretty early in the season as the candidate to take over at SS.

Lip Man 1
09-23-2009, 12:26 AM
Brian:

Not taking sides here but in fact at the start of spring training and the 2008 regular season there were stories in the mainstream media quoting both Cabrera and Kenny talking about an extension to keep him.

There was a period of time when the plan apparently was to get Cabrera to stay and I assume keep Ramirez at second.

Lip

munchman33
09-23-2009, 12:28 AM
I disagree. The plan all along was that Cabrera was going to leave in free agency and the Sox were going to collect a high draft pick. Alexei established himself pretty early in the season as the candidate to take over at SS.

No more than Gordon has for 2B. Ozzie actually said he wasn't thinking about moving Alexei to short last year. Look it up. Things change. It probably wasn't even Ozzie's call. Nor would Beckham be.

The organization has also made no mystery about what free agent they're most likely to pursue. Just so happens, he plays third base.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 12:32 AM
:thud: OMG!!! Getz is too old! We should DFA his ass right now!

No it doesn't.

He's five years older than rookies having better seasons. Let's not get carried away on potential. The guy is passed appropriate age for a rookie position player to suddenly blossom with skills he's never shown before.

And yes it does. Why should a hot streak (if it could really be called that) carry more weight than a cold streak? Because you say so? Because he's on our team? That's asinine.

dickallen15
09-23-2009, 10:07 AM
Brian:

Not taking sides here but in fact at the start of spring training and the 2008 regular season there were stories in the mainstream media quoting both Cabrera and Kenny talking about an extension to keep him.

There was a period of time when the plan apparently was to get Cabrera to stay and I assume keep Ramirez at second.

Lip

They hadn't drafted Beckham yet, Nix was in Colorado and Getz hadn't broken out with his big season in AAA, but yes I agree the original plan was to keep Cabrera.

As far as the 2010 Sox go, they are 20-28 since acquiring Peavy. The are 9-11 since Contreras and Thome departed, and they are 1-3 since Peavy was activated, winning the game that he pitched. I know the sample sizes are small, but as I stated before, he has a decent head start into 2010, but whoever things this is a WS contender with a couple minor tweaks, I think is off his/her rocker. This team appears to roll up and die when things get a little hairy. That personality trait needs to change. Maybe Beckham becomes more of a leader and he changes it, but I think the Sox need more.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 10:18 AM
They hadn't drafted Beckham yet, Nix was in Colorado and Getz hadn't broken out with his big season in AAA, but yes I agree the original plan was to keep Cabrera.

As far as the 2010 Sox go, they are 20-28 since acquiring Peavy. The are 9-11 since Contreras and Thome departed, and they are 1-3 since Peavy was activated, winning the game that he pitched. I know the sample sizes are small, but as I stated before, he has a decent head start into 2010, but whoever things this is a WS contender with a couple minor tweaks, I think is off his/her rocker. This team appears to roll up and die when things get a little hairy. That personality trait needs to change. Maybe Beckham becomes more of a leader and he changes it, but I think the Sox need more.

You're assuming no turnover in the roster. I'm expecting a new face at 3B, RF, DH, and two bullpen spots.

dickallen15
09-23-2009, 10:38 AM
You're assuming no turnover in the roster. I'm expecting a new face at 3B, RF, DH, and two bullpen spots.

I can't believe I'm using Cowley as a source, so consider the source, he's saying the Sox are already starting to cry poor and even with all the money coming off the books, a guy like Figgins is a pipedream. There might be some turnover but bargain basement guys. Stranger things have happened, like Detroit contending this year, but I hope KW isn't shooting for an 86-76 record hoping that gets him in the playoffs.

voodoochile
09-23-2009, 10:45 AM
I can't believe I'm using Cowley as a source, so consider the source, he's saying the Sox are already starting to cry poor and even with all the money coming off the books, a guy like Figgins is a pipedream. There might be some turnover but bargain basement guys. Stranger things have happened, like Detroit contending this year, but I hope KW isn't shooting for an 86-76 record hoping that gets him in the playoffs.


What money that is not already spent is actually coming off the books. I count Dye and MacDougal but there are substantial raises for Danks and TCQ coming as well as possibly another few million for Bobby and that's before they sign Pods or Kotsay.

That's about $12M to play with prior to those signings. TCQ and Danks will probably suck up close to $10M of that money all by themselves.

dickallen15
09-23-2009, 11:20 AM
What money that is not already spent is actually coming off the books. I count Dye and MacDougal but there are substantial raises for Danks and TCQ coming as well as possibly another few million for Bobby and that's before they sign Pods or Kotsay.

That's about $12M to play with prior to those signings. TCQ and Danks will probably suck up close to $10M of that money all by themselves.
From the beginning of the year, money that has been paid by the Sox:
Thome $13 million, Contreras $10 million, Dotel $6.5 million, MacDougal $3 million, Dye $11 million, Viciedo's bonus $5.3 million. That's almost $50 million they spent this year they won't have any obligation to spend next season. If Jenks goes, that's another $5.5 million. Almost $55 million of old salary. Peavy and Rios subtract from the figure, plus several raises, but if they kept payroll at the same level as this year, there should be plenty, but apparently, they plan to lower the payroll, but again it is Cowley.

voodoochile
09-23-2009, 11:25 AM
From the beginning of the year, money that has been paid by the Sox:
Thome $13 million, Contreras $10 million, Dotel $6.5 million, MacDougal $3 million, Dye $11 million, Viciedo's bonus $5.3 million. That's almost $50 million they spent this year they won't have any obligation to spend next season. If Jenks goes, that's another $5.5 million. Almost $55 million of old salary. Peavy and Rios subtract from the figure, plus several raises, but if they kept payroll at the same level as this year, there should be plenty, but apparently, they plan to lower the payroll, but again it is Cowley.

I wasn't counting the Viciedo bonus. However, Rios+Peavy is damned close to Thome+Contreras+Dotel. There's like 2M left from that money. So there might be $18M not $10M but again, they are going to owe TCQ and Danks big raises as they go from indentured serfs to arbitration eligible. Garcia sucks up another $2M if they pick up his option (which they should) and Pods will get some money if they bring him back.

I just don't think there's as much money as you are claiming. They might have $10M to spend on FA not on the team already and that is with a gaping hole in RF and LH power. Those players don't come cheap.

dickallen15
09-23-2009, 11:31 AM
I wasn't counting the Viciedo bonus. However, Rios+Peavy is damned close to Thome+Contreras+Dotel. There's like 2M left from that money. So there might be $18M not $10M but again, they are going to owe TCQ and Danks big raises as they go from indentured serfs to arbitration eligible. Garcia sucks up another $2M if they pick up his option (which they should) and Pods will get some money if they bring him back.

I just don't think there's as much money as you are claiming. They might have $10M to spend on FA not on the team already and that is with a gaping hole in RF and LH power. Those players don't come cheap.
Peavy plus Rios is just under $25 million for 2010. Peavy $15 million, Rios $9.7 million.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 11:36 AM
I can't believe I'm using Cowley as a source, so consider the source, he's saying the Sox are already starting to cry poor and even with all the money coming off the books, a guy like Figgins is a pipedream. There might be some turnover but bargain basement guys. Stranger things have happened, like Detroit contending this year, but I hope KW isn't shooting for an 86-76 record hoping that gets him in the playoffs.

What money that is not already spent is actually coming off the books. I count Dye and MacDougal but there are substantial raises for Danks and TCQ coming as well as possibly another few million for Bobby and that's before they sign Pods or Kotsay.

That's about $12M to play with prior to those signings. TCQ and Danks will probably suck up close to $10M of that money all by themselves.

Signed players likely to figure into payroll 2010 (I made arb. estimates based on service time and history) -

According to Cots:


Rotation:

Buehrle - $14
Danks - arb (2.5)
Floyd - $2.75
Peavy - $15
Freddy - $1.5 (option)

Bullpen
Jenks - arb (7.5)
Linebrink - $5
Pena - arb (1)
Thornton - $2.25 (option)

Position:

C Pierzinski - $6.25
C Flowers - min
1B Konerko - $12
2B Getz - min
2B Beckham - min
SS Alexei - $1.1
3B Viciedo (deal is ml) - $1.25
LF Quentin arb (2.5)
CF Rios - $9.7

----

Dye's option won't be picked up. His buyout would count against this year's payroll (and it's only $1 million). 8 more spots would fill the roster (Dayan isn't making the team next year), most of which will be guys at league minimum.

So you're really looking at 14 people at about $84 million and league minimum for everyone else if payroll doesn't go over that (I don't think it'll be that low). If we trade Bobby (as expected), there's obviously a lot more to work with.

Realistically I think we'll wind up right around $95 - 100 million in payroll. We'll trade Bobby, spend $8-10 million on a 3B (probably Figgins) and around $10 million split between an outfielder and a DH.

khan
09-23-2009, 11:38 AM
Agree 100%. This is a better team with Beckham at 2B and a proficient defensive 3B on the corner (who will hopefully keep it warm for, cross my fingers, Brent Morel).

I was a believer in Brent Morel, but his BA/OBP aren't exactly impressive, given the level that he was at this year. Here's hoping that he can pick it up a bit as he's advanced through the system.

voodoochile
09-23-2009, 11:42 AM
Peavy plus Rios is just under $25 million for 2010. Peavy $15 million, Rios $9.7 million.

Okay so tack on another $2M. Add in another 2.5M for Castro too. I assume they will give the back up slot to Flowers, though personally I think it's a bad idea. I'd prefer he get regular PT and he won't as AJ's backup.

Still they could go cheaper for the backup catcher and Castro certainly hasn't been worth his money this year.

However there are also incremental raises for Thornton (1M), AJ (.5M), Linebrink (ugh .5M), Floyd (2M) Freddy (1-3M).

And again, Danks, TCQ and Pena are all arb eligible and Carrasco and Williams are on 1 year deals and will both likely see raises if the Sox want to hold on to them.

If Bobby goes they are going to have to replace his arm with someone because Thornton and Pena as the only established late inning guys is a recipe for disaster.

And they losing two of the their middle order bats in Thome and Dye at least one of those needs to be replaced.

voodoochile
09-23-2009, 11:45 AM
So you're really looking at 14 people at about $84 million and league minimum for everyone else if payroll doesn't go over that (I don't think it'll be that low). If we trade Bobby (as expected), there's obviously a lot more to work with.

Realistically I think we'll wind up right around $95 - 100 million in payroll. We'll trade Bobby, spend $8-10 million on a 3B (probably Figgins) and around $10 million split between an outfielder and a DH.

Yep, that's what I've been saying. Without a substantial increase to payroll (will depend on ST sales which might be good based on our rotation alone) the Sox just don't have much money to spend and they NEED a LH power bat, IMO.

Edit: Personally, I'd rather spend the money on RF/DH and the bullpen and leave the infield alone.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 11:51 AM
People are vastly overstating the raises Quentin and Danks are going to be seeing. Neither is a super two. Both are in their first year of significant raises. And both had down years compared to their first. They're not going to jump from minimum to $5 million a year. They'll get about half that. Quentin might not even get that.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 11:52 AM
Yep, that's what I've been saying. Without a substantial increase to payroll (will depend on ST sales which might be good based on our rotation alone) the Sox just don't have much money to spend and they NEED a LH power bat, IMO.

Edit: Personally, I'd rather spend the money on RF/DH and the bullpen and leave the infield alone.

RF/DH is flooded. Unless you're thinking we're signing Jason Bay, everyone else will be bunched up around $5 hoping for a job. And there's no excuse to pay more than $1 million for a DH in this market.

voodoochile
09-23-2009, 11:58 AM
RF/DH is flooded. Unless you're thinking we're signing Jason Bay, everyone else will be bunched up around $5 hoping for a job. And there's no excuse to pay more than $1 million for a DH in this market.

That's good news. Sox definitely need a LH power bat.

Personally, I'd be willing to bring back both Pods and Kotsay, sign that LHRF power guy, add a reliever and start the season.

I am comfortable with the infield even though I know others aren't.

khan
09-23-2009, 12:02 PM
Okay so tack on another $2M. Add in another 2.5M for Castro too. I assume they will give the back up slot to Flowers, though personally I think it's a bad idea. I'd prefer he get regular PT and he won't as AJ's backup.

Still they could go cheaper for the backup catcher and Castro certainly hasn't been worth his money this year.

However there are also incremental raises for Thornton (1M), AJ (.5M), Linebrink (ugh .5M), Floyd (2M) Freddy (1-3M).

And again, Danks, TCQ and Pena are all arb eligible and Carrasco and Williams are on 1 year deals and will both likely see raises if the Sox want to hold on to them.

If Bobby goes they are going to have to replace his arm with someone because Thornton and Pena as the only established late inning guys is a recipe for disaster.

And they losing two of the their middle order bats in Thome and Dye at least one of those needs to be replaced.

All of this is well and good, but I hope that KW isn't buying too much into the idea of having a lot of speedy gnats, and NO sluggers. [In the sort of way he overbought into the idea of the "power" arms in the bullpen in 2007.]

In this league, ESPECIALLY in this park, its important to have 3 or so ~30+ HR type guys, IMO. Even Minnesota, [the team with all the gnats] has THREE 30+ HR type players [Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer] and ONE more 25 HR type player [Kubel].

Without Dye and Thome for 2010, we'd be looking at ONE probable 30+ HR player in Konerko [assuming he doesn't get hurt, or go into a 4 month slump], and ONE possible 30+ HR player in Quentin [assuming he's healthy for the full season, which hasn't happened yet for him].

I'm fearful that with an underpowered lineup, we'll be looking at 3rd place again for next season. I too believe that the SOX can compete with the IF as-is, but will require upgrades in the bullpen, and some power in the OF.

munchman33
09-23-2009, 12:02 PM
That's good news. Sox definitely need a LH power bat.

Personally, I'd be willing to bring back both Pods and Kotsay, sign that LHRF power guy, add a reliever and start the season.

I am comfortable with the infield even though I know others aren't.

I think they will bring back both Pods and Kotsay, and I think both will make around $2 million each. I still see them signing a RF (possibly Abreu) at a discount late in the offseason. But Figgins will be priority #1. Of that, I have no doubts. We'd shed payroll to accommodate the signing before we decided not to try.

I think they'll look at guys like Vlad and Huff for the DH position, after offering it to Thome for very little money. He might take it, there's seriously like 5 open DH jobs and about 20 guys that need to DH.

Lip Man 1
09-23-2009, 12:19 PM
For what it's worth Joe Cowley is the Sun-Times wrote today (and I sincerely hope this is false) that because of the Sox economic issues, the Chone Figgins possibility is already being moved into the 'wishful thinking' category.

Lip

munchman33
09-23-2009, 12:54 PM
For what it's worth Joe Cowley is the Sun-Times wrote today (and I sincerely hope this is false) that because of the Sox economic issues, the Chone Figgins possibility is already being moved into the 'wishful thinking' category.

Lip

Here's to more Josh Fields!

Zisk77
09-23-2009, 01:14 PM
Okay...how about I disagree with your "qualitative proof?" :shrug:
noted

munchman33
09-23-2009, 01:26 PM
noted

:smile:

Hitmen77
09-23-2009, 05:21 PM
Signed players likely to figure into payroll 2010 (I made arb. estimates based on service time and history) -

According to Cots:

Rotation:

Buehrle - $14
Danks - arb (2.5)
Floyd - $2.75
Peavy - $15
Freddy - $1.5 (option)

Bullpen
Jenks - arb (7.5)
Linebrink - $5
Pena - arb (1)
Thornton - $2.25 (option)

Position:
C Pierzinski - $6.25
C Flowers - min
1B Konerko - $12
2B Getz - min
2B Beckham - min
SS Alexei - $1.1
3B Viciedo (deal is ml) - $1.25
LF Quentin arb (2.5)
CF Rios - $9.7

----

Dye's option won't be picked up. His buyout would count against this year's payroll (and it's only $1 million). 8 more spots would fill the roster (Dayan isn't making the team next year), most of which will be guys at league minimum.

So you're really looking at 14 people at about $84 million and league minimum for everyone else if payroll doesn't go over that (I don't think it'll be that low). If we trade Bobby (as expected), there's obviously a lot more to work with.

Realistically I think we'll wind up right around $95 - 100 million in payroll. We'll trade Bobby, spend $8-10 million on a 3B (probably Figgins) and around $10 million split between an outfielder and a DH.

Yep, that's what I've been saying. Without a substantial increase to payroll (will depend on ST sales which might be good based on our rotation alone) the Sox just don't have much money to spend and they NEED a LH power bat, IMO.

Edit: Personally, I'd rather spend the money on RF/DH and the bullpen and leave the infield alone.

For what it's worth Joe Cowley is the Sun-Times wrote today (and I sincerely hope this is false) that because of the Sox economic issues, the Chone Figgins possibility is already being moved into the 'wishful thinking' category.

Lip

Thanks for adding up the numbers. So, we have 14 players with about $84 million in salary committed for next year (estimated for Danks and Quentin) and when you add in all the league minimum players to fill out the roster, that adds up to about $90 million already committed.

Wow! I didn't realize we had that much already committed. I wouldn't be surprised if that's very close to the Sox payroll limit for 2010. Given our simply awful finish and a bad economy, I wouldn't be surprised if ticket sales take somewhat of a hit this offseason.

That's bad news.:(: This team has at least one huge hole to fill. I agree that we should get away from the HR-or-nothing offense. But, we've lost a ton of power by losing Thome and (presumably) Dye for 2010. I hope munch is right and that there will be surplus of power hitters available this offseason (thus driving down their market rate).

Not that I'm advocating this, but does anyone see a scenario where KW brings back Thome as our DH at a greatly reduced salary. I know he told Jim that they want to get away from having a DH only person next year, but maybe he's all we'll be able to afford.

oeo
09-23-2009, 05:29 PM
He's also old and has a ton of development time already.

He just turned 26 a few weeks ago. :shrug:

Meanwhile, in 2005, Pods was only his third season at 29 putting up those numbers.

Also, can I take away his most productive month to prove my point? It only seems fair...

He's had more productive ones than unproductive. His May was clearly out of the ordinary. Since it was the second month of his rookie year, my guess is they made adjustments to him...he struggled and worked through them. Let's just ignore the fact that he's been pretty productive the majority of the season. Why not? It "proves" your point.

munchman33
09-24-2009, 09:45 AM
He just turned 26 a few weeks ago. :shrug:

Meanwhile, in 2005, Pods was only his third season at 29 putting up those numbers.



He's had more productive ones than unproductive. His May was clearly out of the ordinary. Since it was the second month of his rookie year, my guess is they made adjustments to him...he struggled and worked through them. Let's just ignore the fact that he's been pretty productive the majority of the season. Why not? It "proves" your point.

Of this, we will simply have to disagree. We obviously have different standards for production.

TheVulture
09-24-2009, 05:48 PM
No, that's by definition. Plus refers to stellar or high. Marquee means top or best. Clearly different, and if you doubt it check how many times the word marquee shows up in a scouting report. Because it doesn't happen very often.

Right.

I just put that there because you remind me of a child from Willie Wonka.

Mod Edit: Please refrain from personal attacks.

kjhanson
09-24-2009, 06:09 PM
Of this, we will simply have to disagree. We obviously have different standards for production.

Short of being a Yankees or Red Sox fan, your "standards for production" are unrealistic because they are taken without context. When you consider that Getz has performed like an average 2B for 1/10 ($401k) of the cost of an average 2B, his true added value to the organization is much more than being an average 2B. Getz' true value to the team is really his average play + ~$3.5MM that is spent upgrading over an average player at another position. You can ask for a high-production 2B at $8MM-$10MM/year (at least) - I think that's perfectly fine - but you must offset that by reducing costs at other positions and reducing the production there.

If everyone on the Sox met your "standards", we'd either have a payroll of $200MM+ or we'd have the best farm system and development of all time. Since we don't have the latter, going with young guys whose production exceeds their contract is the best approach.

munchman33
09-24-2009, 08:31 PM
Short of being a Yankees or Red Sox fan, your "standards for production" are unrealistic because they are taken without context. When you consider that Getz has performed like an average 2B for 1/10 ($401k) of the cost of an average 2B, his true added value to the organization is much more than being an average 2B. Getz' true value to the team is really his average play + ~$3.5MM that is spent upgrading over an average player at another position. You can ask for a high-production 2B at $8MM-$10MM/year (at least) - I think that's perfectly fine - but you must offset that by reducing costs at other positions and reducing the production there.

If everyone on the Sox met your "standards", we'd either have a payroll of $200MM+ or we'd have the best farm system and development of all time. Since we don't have the latter, going with young guys whose production exceeds their contract is the best approach.

His batting average is slightly below average, he has way below average power (zero), and is a slightly below average defender. I don't at all seem him as an "average" type of player, irregardless of his speed. He has one tool he's above average at, one he's barely adequate, and not good or terrible at everything else. I'm sorry, but he's a stopgap/bench guy. It's not that I don't appreciate his attitude. But he's not all that good at baseball.

dickallen15
09-24-2009, 08:40 PM
His batting average is slightly below average, he has way below average power (zero), and is a slightly below average defender. I don't at all seem him as an "average" type of player, irregardless of his speed. He has one tool he's above average at, one he's barely adequate, and not good or terrible at everything else. I'm sorry, but he's a stopgap/bench guy. It's not that I don't appreciate his attitude. But he's not all that good at baseball.

Although he is a few years older, Getz has a higher BA, OBP and SLUGPCT than Robin Ventura had his rookie year. I'm not saying Getz is going to be a 30 homer guy, but he displayed some extra base pop in AAA, and I think that will come to the surface in the major leagues.

munchman33
09-25-2009, 12:54 AM
Although he is a few years older, Getz has a higher BA, OBP and SLUGPCT than Robin Ventura had his rookie year. I'm not saying Getz is going to be a 30 homer guy, but he displayed some extra base pop in AAA, and I think that will come to the surface in the major leagues.

I don't think that's a very good comparison, given the age and talent disparities between the two. To be perfectly honest, that comparison is kind of kool-aidish.

I've never read a scouting report on Getz that said he would ever develop any sort of power. And he certainly didn't show promise in that department in his time in the majors. In fact, every scouting report on Getz I've ever read has him as exactly the player he is in reality.

Craig Grebeck
09-25-2009, 03:03 AM
I don't think that's a very good comparison, given the age and talent disparities between the two. To be perfectly honest, that comparison is kind of kool-aidish.

I've never read a scouting report on Getz that said he would ever develop any sort of power. And he certainly didn't show promise in that department in his time in the majors. In fact, every scouting report on Getz I've ever read has him as exactly the player he is in reality.
Getz is, at his best, probably going to be Mickey Morandini. And I wouldn't complain about that at all, but I just think this team could do better.

Hitmen77
09-25-2009, 08:35 AM
Getz is, at his best, probably going to be Mickey Morandini. And I wouldn't complain about that at all, but I just think this team could do better.

The thing is, I don't think we can do better for our #9 hitter given the current economics of this team.

We have 1 or 2 other huge holes in the lineup to fill and bullpen issues to address. I have my doubts whether the Sox have enough $ left when they set their payroll limit for 2010 to even adequately fill the gaping hole in the middle of our lineup.

IMO, upgrading over Getz is simply a luxury we don't have. The only way I see him not returning as our starting 2B is if he's packaged in a blockbuster trade that really shuffles our lineup.

voodoochile
09-25-2009, 10:27 AM
I don't think that's a very good comparison, given the age and talent disparities between the two. To be perfectly honest, that comparison is kind of kool-aidish.

I've never read a scouting report on Getz that said he would ever develop any sort of power. And he certainly didn't show promise in that department in his time in the majors. In fact, every scouting report on Getz I've ever read has him as exactly the player he is in reality.

Some of you folks are missing a crucial element to this discussion. Really it's not just Getz, it's a platoon and probably will remain such with Nix starting against LHP most of the time and acting as utility guy.

Nix simply crushed LHP this year posting a .855 OPS with a .517 slg.

Between the two of them they managed the following stat line at 2B:

512 AB 70 R 142 H 24 2B 4 3B 9 HR 41 RBI 40 BB 90 K .277 .336 .419 .755

Edit: They also stole over 30 bases and were only caught 4 times and yes these numbers are strictly based on the numbers Nix posted while playing 2B.

And again, both of them were effectively rookies. Just to be clear, the Sox would rank 16th in the majors with that OPS from the 2B position. Now maybe Nix up and steals the job, but he's not that good against RHP so far. However, he missed about 10 HR just foul this year and both of them struggled with injuries at one point or another, so if they can stay healthy, you might expect the numbers to improve a bit.

With all the other need positions on this team, 2B is not at the top of the list. Heck, it's probably 4th or 5th and is kind of a "if there's money left over" kind of thing. With Munch himself having pointed out there might only be about $10M to spend, and that's if his estimates for TCQ and Danks are accurate, the Sox should concentrate on other areas.

munchman33
09-25-2009, 10:41 AM
Some of you folks are missing a crucial element to this discussion. Really it's not just Getz, it's a platoon and probably will remain such with Nix starting against LHP most of the time and acting as utility guy.

Nix simply crushed LHP this year posting a .855 OPS with a .517 slg.

Between the two of them they managed the following stat line at 2B:

512 AB 70 R 142 H 24 2B 4 3B 9 HR 41 RBI 40 BB 90 K .277 .336 .419 .755

Edit: They also stole over 30 bases and were only caught 4 times and yes these numbers are strictly based on the numbers Nix posted while playing 2B.

And again, both of them were effectively rookies. Just to be clear, the Sox would rank 16th in the majors with that OPS from the 2B position. Now maybe Nix up and steals the job, but he's not that good against RHP so far. However, he missed about 10 HR just foul this year and both of them struggled with injuries at one point or another, so if they can stay healthy, you might expect the numbers to improve a bit.

With all the other need positions on this team, 2B is not at the top of the list. Heck, it's probably 4th or 5th and is kind of a "if there's money left over" kind of thing. With Munch himself having pointed out there might only be about $10M to spend, and that's if his estimates for TCQ and Danks are accurate, the Sox should concentrate on other areas.

Those numbers are a little more acceptable. But Getz's defense is still not what I'd like to see there. Not even just poor range...he's got a really bad arm, even for a second baseman.

I'm fully expecting us to trade Bobby, despite what Kenny might say. So I think there's a little more money available. I think the pen is where we don't spend, with Torres, Hudson (or Garcia), and guys like Link filling the holes. The money from losing Bobby would cover most or all of a new outfielder and a new DH. So we can improve the infield too.

voodoochile
09-25-2009, 11:01 AM
Those numbers are a little more acceptable. But Getz's defense is still not what I'd like to see there. Not even just poor range...he's got a really bad arm, even for a second baseman.

I'm fully expecting us to trade Bobby, despite what Kenny might say. So I think there's a little more money available. I think the pen is where we don't spend, with Torres, Hudson (or Garcia), and guys like Link filling the holes. The money from losing Bobby would cover most or all of a new outfielder and a new DH. So we can improve the infield too.

Personally, I'd kind of like to see what these kids can do given another year. I understand the desire to want to see above average talent at every position, but sometimes you need to see if the players you have can develop that way rather than going out and signing FA's. Thinking about an infield that might be set for the next 5-10 years and cheap for the next 3 is really cool.

munchman33
09-25-2009, 11:28 AM
Personally, I'd kind of like to see what these kids can do given another year. I understand the desire to want to see above average talent at every position, but sometimes you need to see if the players you have can develop that way rather than going out and signing FA's. Thinking about an infield that might be set for the next 5-10 years and cheap for the next 3 is really cool.

I guess I don't see "cheap" as a big deal in the current market, where good free agents are only slightly more expensive. Especially when we have expensive pieces that are movable (like Bobby). The level of talent disparity between the Tigers, Twins, and Sox is not a whole lot. The talent level of one or two positions can very well be the difference (and it might have been this year).

kjhanson
09-25-2009, 11:46 AM
Getz is, at his best, probably going to be Mickey Morandini. And I wouldn't complain about that at all, but I just think this team could do better.

.268/.338/.359
.267/.329/.352

Morandini's career stat line is first, Chris' is second. I would also point out that Morandini stole more than 16 bases only once in his career. Chris, of course, is a remarkable 25 for 27 this year, despite barely reaching 400 plate appearances. While the Sox could certainly do better at 2B, it would cost them, at minimum, ten times what Chris is making right now. Economically, it makes little sense to upgrade because the talent difference between a $4MM/year player and Getz is much, much less than $3.5MM.

voodoochile
09-25-2009, 11:51 AM
I guess I don't see "cheap" as a big deal in the current market, where good free agents are only slightly more expensive. Especially when we have expensive pieces that are movable (like Bobby). The level of talent disparity between the Tigers, Twins, and Sox is not a whole lot. The talent level of one or two positions can very well be the difference (and it might have been this year).

I'd be WAY more concerned with trusting Nunez and Torres taking over for Bobby and Dotel than finding an upgrade at 2B.

If Bobby goes, that money needs to be returned to the bullpen, because it would leave precisely ONE proven reliable late inning arm on the team (Thornton) and would assume Pena et al can pick up the slack. With Thornton moving to closer it leaves Williams as the sole LH reliever available for setup work.

We've seen the effects of an unproven bullpen as recently as 2007 why we would want to go back to that I have no idea.

I agree that Torres could take over long man and Carrasco could be moved to more of a setup role and that Nunez will eventually develop into a reliable arm, but hoping for those things to happen is not the same as counting on them. If the Sox lose Bobby and don't replace him, they are risking a major problem.

kjhanson
09-25-2009, 11:55 AM
Those numbers are a little more acceptable. But Getz's defense is still not what I'd like to see there. Not even just poor range...he's got a really bad arm, even for a second baseman.


I completely agree that his arm is below average, and had you made these comments about his range back in May, I also would have agreed with you. However, over the past 3-4 months his range (and this is my opinion) has improved dramatically. I feel like his backhand has become more of a strength because he's getting into better position early, which helps to mitigate his below average arm.

FWIW, his calculated range factor is about 5% above the league average.

Waysouthsider
09-25-2009, 12:18 PM
good points, VC...


I agree on Flowers...why have him sitting...looks like he could use the opportunity to swing the bat.

I think they are going to deal Jenks...I'm more optimistic about MT being able to close, but how do we get to him...Pena does nothing for me..

On that middle of the order issue, isn't Rios going to catch fire next year and win the triple crown? :redface:

hawkjt
09-25-2009, 02:32 PM
To me the middle of the order run production is our #1 priority in the offseason,followed by addressing bullpen.

Our infield defense was an issue but improved later in he season.
Top and bottom of the order hit ok,and stole bases.
Rotation was good.

That leaves the Thome/Dye/Carlos/PK/Rios run production issue.
JD and Thome are gone.
Rios and Carlos have to come back to form or we are toast.
PK was solid this year and hopefully has one more good year in him.
That means we need at least one or two solid,high average run producers that can play right field and dh.
I think they should keep Pods,Kotsay, and add Abreu.
Add a reliable right handed reliever to replace Dotel...
and pray that linebrink finds it again.

Figgins would be nice also, but not worth 25-30 million when he gets injured every other year, and next year is the year he is due to get hurt.