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Waysouthsider
08-19-2009, 01:30 PM
Well, folks, I've been noticing over the past few weeks that the stats guys at Baseball Prospectus have been much kinder in their projections for our Sox. Right now they project the Sox winning the division at 86-76...

As KW has made changes over the course of the year, the regression statistics have consistently gotten better for us...

Now, given that these same folks picked us to finish last before the season started, its hard to know what will really happen, eh? As a stats guy myself, I'd like to think that IF they play up to their potential then then their ceiling would be in that mid 80's win range.

JB98
08-19-2009, 01:37 PM
Hopefully, those stat geeks will be right for a change.

fram40
08-19-2009, 01:54 PM
there are 42 games left to get to 86 wins they need to finish 25 - 17 That is .600 ball with 19 home and 23 road games

seems difficult looking at it that way It is certainly possible but this team seems unable to sustain a .600 clip over the next 6+ weeks

beasly213
08-19-2009, 02:00 PM
Who knows what the record is going to be? We can predict and guess but we'll have to wait and see what happens. My guess is it will come down to the last 13 games of the year. Starting with Twins and Tigers at home in December.

Rocky Soprano
08-19-2009, 02:11 PM
Who knows what the record is going to be? We can predict and guess but we'll have to wait and see what happens. My guess is it will come down to the last 13 games of the year. Starting with Twins and Tigers at home in December.

Think the weather will play a factor? :tongue:

mantis1212
08-19-2009, 02:51 PM
Now, given that these same folks picked us to finish last before the season started, its hard to know what will really happen, eh?

If we had the same team now as we did when the season started, we probably would be in last place. They couldn't factor in the huge moves Kenny would make during the season.

kjhanson
08-19-2009, 03:27 PM
there are 42 games left to get to 86 wins they need to finish 25 - 17 That is .600 ball with 19 home and 23 road games

seems difficult looking at it that way It is certainly possible but this team seems unable to sustain a .600 clip over the next 6+ weeks

Coming into today's game, the White Sox were a .600 baseball team when Jose Contreras did NOT start the game.

asindc
08-19-2009, 03:35 PM
If we had the same team now as we did when the season started, we probably would be in last place. They couldn't factor in the huge moves Kenny would make during the season.

I seriously doubt this. In fact, they might be neck and neck with the Twinkees at worst without Beckham coming up, which was the only significant move that has had an positive impact on the standings the KW made this year. Keep in mind that Quentin lost a couple of months, which was not factored into BP's pre-season analysis.

Tragg
08-19-2009, 03:39 PM
Well, folks, I've been noticing over the past few weeks that the stats guys at Baseball Prospectus have been much kinder in their projections for our Sox. Right now they project the Sox winning the division at 86-76...

As KW has made changes over the course of the year, the regression statistics have consistently gotten better for us...

Now, given that these same folks picked us to finish last before the season started, its hard to know what will really happen, eh? As a stats guy myself, I'd like to think that IF they play up to their potential then then their ceiling would be in that mid 80's win range.
It has little to do with Williams' changes. Tt has to do with that BP was simply wrong.
Right now, we have a positive run differential that they love (we've lost a lot of 1-run games; bp calls that "bad luck") and the fact that we are above .500 with a month and a half left (it's hard to stick to 73 wins at this point).
My personal favorite is Sheehan predicting us to finish 27/30 and the Indians 7th and the As 11th and the RedSox to win 104 games...his immense bias overtakes his analysis.

DumpJerry
08-19-2009, 03:50 PM
Who knows what the record is going to be? We can predict and guess but we'll have to wait and see what happens. My guess is it will come down to the last 13 games of the year. Starting with Twins and Tigers at home in December.
I forgot that the silly WBC pushed the season back a few weeks this year.:redneck

mantis1212
08-19-2009, 04:09 PM
I seriously doubt this. In fact, they might be neck and neck with the Twinkees at worst without Beckham coming up, which was the only significant move that has had an positive impact on the standings the KW made this year. Keep in mind that Quentin lost a couple of months, which was not factored into BP's pre-season analysis.

How about Pods getting 114 hits this year? That last place estimation had Wise in the leadoff spot, along with Fields at 3B. Not to mention Betimit at backup IF.

asindc
08-19-2009, 04:16 PM
How about Pods getting 114 hits this year? That last place estimation had Wise in the leadoff spot, along with Fields at 3B. Not to mention Betimit at backup IF.

You're right, I forgot about Pods. I always thought of Beckham taking Betemit's place rather than Fields' place on the roster. I still think our pitching is too good to have allowed us to be worse than Cleveland or KC, let alone both.

Tragg
08-19-2009, 04:19 PM
How about Pods getting 114 hits this year? That last place estimation had Wise in the leadoff spot, along with Fields at 3B. Not to mention Betimit at backup IF.
And if Pods had been there it still would have estimated the Sox in last.

mantis1212
08-19-2009, 04:29 PM
And if Pods had been there it still would have estimated the Sox in last.

True, but what I was saying is if they kept the same roster from opening day they'd be in last place.

Probably a dumb argument since a last place team would never hold its roster steady anyway- they'd make changes to get out of last place. I guess the lesson is preseason predictions are crap, no matter how you look at it.

Tragg
08-19-2009, 04:51 PM
True, but what I was saying is if they kept the same roster from opening day they'd be in last place.


Not a chance.
Wise was pulled from leadoff before Pods got here; Betemit underperformed any reasonable projection.
I think we'd be about where the Twins are, with the initial roster.

cws05champ
08-19-2009, 04:52 PM
It has little to do with Williams' changes. Tt has to do with that BP was simply wrong.
Right now, we have a positive run differential that they love (we've lost a lot of 1-run games; bp calls that "bad luck") and the fact that we are above .500 with a month and a half left (it's hard to stick to 73 wins at this point).
My personal favorite is Sheehan predicting us to finish 27/30 and the Indians 7th and the As 11th and the RedSox to win 104 games...his immense bias overtakes his analysis.
They have to publish an update so they can pretend in the end that they predicted the Sox right all along. Their original prediction will never have existed. :tongue: