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View Full Version : Jordan Danks to the DL


DirtySox
08-18-2009, 10:51 AM
Danks is back on the DL. One would have to imagine it's the wrist injury that was bothering him previously.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=6088

Konerko05
08-18-2009, 01:50 PM
Well it's pretty safe to say with Danks' contact issues and ailing wrist injury, he doesn't have a shot at starting on the White Sox anytime next season. I'm just hoping he makes it to Chicago at some point at all.

35th and Shields
08-18-2009, 02:06 PM
A lingering wrist injury would be awful.

Redus Redux
08-18-2009, 05:04 PM
Hopefully not a cruel question to ask, but based on Rios being here now....

....lets say Danks was healthy. Is there any chance he'd be on the Sox next year anyway?


I'd say no, since he wouldnt be here that soon to just be a backup

DirtySox
08-18-2009, 05:30 PM
Hopefully not a cruel question to ask, but based on Rios being here now....

....lets say Danks was healthy. Is there any chance he'd be on the Sox next year anyway?


I'd say no, since he wouldnt be here that soon to just be a backup

No.

Jordan Danks will not be a starter in the bigs if he continues to strike out at the rate he does. His K rate needs significant improvement before he is an option for the Sox.

Randar68
08-21-2009, 11:50 AM
No.

Jordan Danks will not be a starter in the bigs if he continues to strike out at the rate he does. His K rate needs significant improvement before he is an option for the Sox.

K rate is a worthless stat. It only matters if it gets worse as he keeps moving up. A strikeout is no different than a popup to 2nd base. It's what he does with the other plate appearances that matters.

Does K rate matter to Russel Branyan? Ryan Howard?

Edit: Not comparing Danks to those guys.

DirtySox
08-21-2009, 12:10 PM
Actually K rate is a very important stat. Especially in the case of a guy like Jordan Danks and his skillset.

Striking out 1 in every 3 at bats is not acceptable unless he projects to hit around 40 homers a year. Jordan will not be doing that. He needs to put the ball in play to make use of his many assets including his speed.

If he doesn't learn to do as such, he will be the second coming of Brian Anderson.

doublem23
08-21-2009, 12:36 PM
K rate is a worthless stat. It only matters if it gets worse as he keeps moving up. A strikeout is no different than a popup to 2nd base. It's what he does with the other plate appearances that matters.

Does K rate matter to Russel Branyan? Ryan Howard?

Edit: Not comparing Danks to those guys.

While I agree the K rate is relatively unimportant when talking about established MLB hitters, I think it's a lot more important when discussing up and coming prospects. I mean, if a guy can't put the ball in play against AA pitchers, how is he ever supposed to handle Major League caliber pitching?

Randar68
08-21-2009, 12:40 PM
Actually K rate is a very important stat. Especially in the case of a guy like Jordan Danks and his skillset.

Striking out 1 in every 3 at bats is not acceptable unless he projects to hit around 40 homers a year. Jordan will not be doing that. He needs to put the ball in play to make use of his many assets including his speed.

If he doesn't learn to do as such, he will be the second coming of Brian Anderson.


So hypothetically, if Danks hits .300 with a .375 OBP and strikes out 1 in 3 PA's, that's not good?

Last year he had limited duty since he signed pretty late, IIRC and he had 14 K's in ~45 PA's, not quite 33%.

This year, before the wrist was bothering him (I'll take May-through-June just for argument's sake, even though he had struggled with the wrist before August), he had a rate of roughly 52 K's in 220 PA's, or less than 25% of his PA's... I would think the improvement would warrant mention, especially since he struggle in June with the wrist.

BTW, he only has 6 SB's on the year, it's not like he's Kenny Lofton or Ricky Henderson, so the "Especially in the case of a guy like Jordan Danks and his skillset" is a pretty confusing statement.

Anyhow, carry on back to your normal statistical analysis without regard for the actual player or situation...

Randar68
08-21-2009, 12:41 PM
While I agree the K rate is relatively unimportant when talking about established MLB hitters, I think it's a lot more important when discussing up and coming prospects. I mean, if a guy can't put the ball in play against AA pitchers, how is he ever supposed to handle Major League caliber pitching?

Last year at this time he'd just signed a contract as a Junior coming out of college and this year he's played well at AA when healthy.

Guess that doesn't matter if he strikes out a bunch?

jabrch
08-21-2009, 01:15 PM
Randar - I think the point is that a high K rate at a low minor league level is a bad thing. I don't think anyone is saying Danks sucks. Nobody is saying he doesn't have a chance. Nobody is calling him a bust...

But guys who strike out a lot a lower levels in the minors have a lot of work to do.

gobears1987
08-21-2009, 01:59 PM
But guys who strike out a lot a lower levels in the minors have a lot of work to do.
With Rios in CF, he will have time to develop.

Randar68
08-21-2009, 04:39 PM
Randar - I think the point is that a high K rate at a low minor league level is a bad thing. I don't think anyone is saying Danks sucks. Nobody is saying he doesn't have a chance. Nobody is calling him a bust...

But guys who strike out a lot a lower levels in the minors have a lot of work to do.

The Southern League is a "Low Minor League Level"? That's a stretch. Most of our op prospects hardly ever even play in Charlotte and come straight from AA (or nearly so). Again, kid has had 1 year of pro baseball, has improved his K:PA ratio despite injury (was better in times of health aka May and July)...

Numbers can be pretty good use in group statistical prediction, but don't even start the discussion on a kid who's battled a wrist injury for half the season if you're not going to take that into account.

guillen4life13
08-21-2009, 05:01 PM
So hypothetically, if Danks hits .300 with a .375 OBP and strikes out 1 in 3 PA's, that's not good?

Last year he had limited duty since he signed pretty late, IIRC and he had 14 K's in ~45 PA's, not quite 33%.

This year, before the wrist was bothering him (I'll take May-through-June just for argument's sake, even though he had struggled with the wrist before August), he had a rate of roughly 52 K's in 220 PA's, or less than 25% of his PA's... I would think the improvement would warrant mention, especially since he struggle in June with the wrist.

BTW, he only has 6 SB's on the year, it's not like he's Kenny Lofton or Ricky Henderson, so the "Especially in the case of a guy like Jordan Danks and his skillset" is a pretty confusing statement.

Anyhow, carry on back to your normal statistical analysis without regard for the actual player or situation...

That's not mathematically possible.

Konerko05
08-21-2009, 06:37 PM
That's not mathematically possible.

Why not?

The Tom
08-21-2009, 10:59 PM
Why not?
Because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) would have to be nearly .500, which is not a sustainable pace. I suppose it's not impossible, as a previous poster has stated, but exactly ZERO players have accomplished that mark over the course of an entire season. Ted Williams' best ever was below .450, the league average is around .300 this season, and even when David Wright was leading the league in hitting earlier this season I believe he topped at around .436 (and that was just for a couple months). It's just not going to happen. Even if he was FAR above the league average, striking out 1 of 3 times at MLB level would drastically reduce his value.

Konerko05
08-22-2009, 12:24 AM
Because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) would have to be nearly .500, which is not a sustainable pace. I suppose it's not impossible, as a previous poster has stated, but exactly ZERO players have accomplished that mark over the course of an entire season. Ted Williams' best ever was below .450, the league average is around .300 this season, and even when David Wright was leading the league in hitting earlier this season I believe he topped at around .436 (and that was just for a couple months). It's just not going to happen. Even if he was FAR above the league average, striking out 1 of 3 times at MLB level would drastically reduce his value.

The key word there was "mathematically."

doublem23
08-22-2009, 08:46 AM
Last year at this time he'd just signed a contract as a Junior coming out of college and this year he's played well at AA when healthy.

Guess that doesn't matter if he strikes out a bunch?

Follow your arguments, I was merely saying the K-rate for minor league players is a worthwhile stat. I couldn't care less whether Jordan Danks succeeds or crashes and burns.

35th and Shields
08-22-2009, 01:03 PM
The key word there was "mathematically."

It's impossible to get on base at .375 if you strike out every 1 out 3 PA's.

Konerko05
08-22-2009, 01:36 PM
It's impossible to get on base at .375 if you strike out every 1 out 3 PA's.

It might be improbable, but it's not mathematically impossible.

...
08-22-2009, 01:56 PM
It might be improbable, but it's not mathematically impossible.

It's also mathematically possible to get on base at a 1.000 clip in any amount of at bats. The point is that it's not going to happen.

Frater Perdurabo
08-22-2009, 02:51 PM
I couldn't care less whether Jordan Danks succeeds or crashes and burns.

:scratch:

Given that he's "Sox property" for several more years at a low cost, I care deeply, and moreover hope he becomes the next Rickey Henderson.

DirtySox
08-22-2009, 03:13 PM
http://twitter.com/BhamBarons/status/3476464642

Jordan will be taken off the DL tonight, but might not return to action as this move seems to be made to keep him eligible for the AFL.

Eligibility Rules (http://www.mlb.com/mlb/events/winterleagues/about/?league=afl&id=player_elig)

Konerko05
08-22-2009, 03:16 PM
It's also mathematically possible to get on base at a 1.000 clip in any amount of at bats. The point is that it's not going to happen.

I didn't say it was going to happen.

I just said it wasn't mathematically impossible in response to guillen4life.

doublem23
08-22-2009, 05:00 PM
:scratch:

Given that he's "Sox property" for several more years at a low cost, I care deeply, and moreover hope he becomes the next Rickey Henderson.

:dunno:

I've seen plenty of highly touted Sox prospects fall apart. I'd love for Jordan to turn into an All-Star, but he's not the keystone of the next 10-15 years. With or without, the Sox will push on. I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.

Craig Grebeck
08-22-2009, 05:05 PM
:dunno:

I've seen plenty of highly touted Sox prospects fall apart. I'd love for Jordan to turn into an All-Star, but he's not the keystone of the next 10-15 years. With or without, the Sox will push on. I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.
This is just mind-numbingly stupid. I have no idea where to begin.

Hitmen77
08-22-2009, 06:37 PM
I understand the concern about his K rate and how it needs to improve. But since this is essentially his first season in the minors (he played only 10 games late last year), he has jumped AA, and he's been battling an injury most of the season; isn't it too early to worry that Danks is becoming another failed prospect?

DonnieDarko
08-23-2009, 02:21 AM
Give the dude time, don't make a judgment so soon--either good or bad.

jabrch
08-23-2009, 11:57 AM
I really don't care that deeply about prospects until they're on the cusp on making the Show.

I certainly understand that point. Until we have a guy ready to go, he is back of the burner. I'll keep an eye on the low minors, just to stay informed, but the hell if I am going to pretend that any of these guys in the low minors are significant to what really matters. I care - I hope they all are stars or that they have enough trade value to get us pieces of importance. But they won't be.

I do think some people make individual players and choices made with the farm out to be more important than it really is. I mean - we traded HOFers away at an astounding pace (Reed, Young, etc.) If only they would have stayed here, had the right coaching, etc. - they'd be well on the way to Cooperstown.

And at this point it is far far far to early to have an informed opinion to call Danks a bust.

The Tom
08-26-2009, 06:31 PM
The key word there was "mathematically."

I didn't even use the word "mathematically." It has nothing to do with math and everything to do with the fact that no player has ever sustained the rate that Danks would have to maintain to achieve that BA and continue to strike out at an astronomical rate. Hopefully he'll improve the K rate and carry a good average as a pro, but he doesn't have the power to make it if he doesn't.

guillen4life13
08-26-2009, 06:53 PM
Ok.

Randar said that if someone were to hit .300 with a .375 OBP and strike out 1/3 PA's...

Ah... I see my error now. I somehow mistook 1/3 for 2/3. My bad.

Konerko05
08-26-2009, 08:28 PM
I didn't even use the word "mathematically." It has nothing to do with math and everything to do with the fact that no player has ever sustained the rate that Danks would have to maintain to achieve that BA and continue to strike out at an astronomical rate. Hopefully he'll improve the K rate and carry a good average as a pro, but he doesn't have the power to make it if he doesn't.

Is it that hard to follow a thread?

EMachine10
08-28-2009, 07:50 PM
That's not mathematically possible.
I know it's not exact, but....

Jared Mitchell has 137 PA and 40 K, so 17 extra PA than what we are talking about (1/3 k per PA). He maintains, however, a .423 OBP and a .301 AVG. By just estimating, I'm not sure that Mitchell's OBP would fall under .375 if he K'd a few more times. I'm sure it would be close, but in the grand scheme of things, .370 would be close enough to .375 for me. Of course, by doing the math, it could fall way down there, but I'm not sold it would fall that far.

The Tom
08-28-2009, 11:36 PM
Is it that hard to follow a thread?
Not nearly as hard as maintaining a .300 average while striking out one out of every three plate appearances.

voodoochile
08-28-2009, 11:41 PM
I know it's not exact, but....

Jared Mitchell has 137 PA and 40 K, so 17 extra PA than what we are talking about (1/3 k per PA). He maintains, however, a .423 OBP and a .301 AVG. By just estimating, I'm not sure that Mitchell's OBP would fall under .375 if he K'd a few more times. I'm sure it would be close, but in the grand scheme of things, .370 would be close enough to .375 for me. Of course, by doing the math, it could fall way down there, but I'm not sold it would fall that far.

This is a sample size issue. Sure it can be done for a month or even two, but to maintain it for 600+ PA it becomes very tough. No, it's not impossible, but the best hitters in the game have never managed to achieve it over the course of a whole season.

Edit: It's also against A-ball pitching. I'm glad Mitchell is dominating it, but let's not pretend it's not several orders of magnitude harder to do it against MLB caliber pitchers and defenders.

Edit2: It's also only a 29% K rate.

Konerko05
08-29-2009, 02:49 AM
Not nearly as hard as maintaining a .300 average while striking out one out of every three plate appearances.

I give up.

I was clearly talking to guillen4life who said it was mathematically impossible, but feel free to continue arguing with no one.