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View Full Version : Sign Beckham to a long term deal?


jabrch
08-07-2009, 10:53 AM
What are the chances the Sox do with Gordon what Tampa did with Longoria? Sign him to a 6-8 year deal to buy out 1-3 years of his FA with club options.

Here's the Longoria deal

Evan Longoria 3b
6 years/$17.5M (2008-13), plus 2014-16 club options


6 years/17.5M (2008-13), plus 2014-16 club options


signed extension with Tampa Bay 4/18/08
08:$0.5M, 09:$0.55M, 10:$0.95M, 11:$2M, 12:$4.5M, 13:$6M, 14:$7.5M club option ($3M buyout), 15:$11M club option, 16:$11.5M club option
if Longoria otherwise would be arbitration-eligible

after 2010, 2011 salary increases to $2.5M
after 2011, buyout for 2014 option increases to $4M


club must decide by 11/2014 whether to exercise 2015-16 options
2016 option may increase to $14M based on rankings in MVP vote
award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection




It isn't the kind of things the Sox do usually - but it might not be a bad idea.

DumpJerry
08-07-2009, 10:58 AM
By calling him up as late as they did, the Sox delayed his eligibility for arbitration by one year.

This decision can be made later.

Rockabilly
08-07-2009, 11:01 AM
I would say give it 2 years than sign him to about a 10 year deal

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:04 AM
By calling him up as late as they did, the Sox delayed his eligibility for arbitration by one year.

This decision can be made later.

I highly doubt he isn't a Super Two. I don't believe we will delay his eligibility for arbitration.

I know the decision CAN be made later - but the question is can you benefit from making it now. We can let it ride for a year, two years or six 5 years. But the longer it rides, the more it costs. If he would take the exact same deal that Longoria got, I'd strongly consider doing it. Buy out 3 FA years by guaranteeing him what looks like the max today (before inflation) that he'd get in his arb years, and give him decent money until he gets to arbitration...

asindc
08-07-2009, 11:04 AM
If we were talking about a pitcher, absolutely not. In my view, though, hitters like Beckham don't come around often. I say the Sox would be fortunate to lock him up with a similar deal at the end of the season. The only caution I have about him is that the league's pitchers haven't seen him multiple times yet. Once he goes through Detroit's, LAAAAAA's, Minny's, NYY's, and KC's pitching lineups 2-3 times with the same results, I'm totally on board.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 11:05 AM
Evan Longoria for $6M combined his first two years of arb eligibility is sick. He'll be the biggest steal in baseball by a long shot.

If the Sox can land Beckham for that kind of money they should at least explore it.

oeo
08-07-2009, 11:06 AM
By calling him up as late as they did, the Sox delayed his eligibility for arbitration by one year.

This decision can be made later.

The longer you wait, the more you're going to have to pay him. I say get it done this offseason. Lock him up for the majority of the next decade for cheap.

Eddo144
08-07-2009, 11:08 AM
The longer you wait, the more you're going to have to pay him. I say get it done this offseason. Lock him up for the majority of the next decade for cheap.
This. I'd love to see him come to spring training next year locked up for the next 8+ years.

UChicagoHP
08-07-2009, 11:08 AM
This is certainly the pattern we are seeing with high-profile "sure-things". As others have said, if the Sox are completely sold on Beckham, and from all indications...they are, then signing him to a Longoria-esque contract would be extremely wise. Both parties come away happy, imo...

doublem23
08-07-2009, 11:16 AM
It isn't the kind of things the Sox do usually - but it might not be a bad idea.

That's basically what they did with Gavin, and I think similar to the deal they offered Danks.

Zisk77
08-07-2009, 11:22 AM
While I think Gordon is going to have a long, great career signing him long term now may save money in the long run or it could cost you dearly.

For Example - Joltin Joe Charbonneau won ROY and then...

How did Jerome Walton work out? Nelson Liriano?

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:25 AM
That's basically what they did with Gavin, and I think similar to the deal they offered Danks.

Gavin had 2 full years of service time - that would the equivalent to waiting until after next year. We can do that...but then the cost goes way up.

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:26 AM
While I think Gordon is going to have a long, great career signing him long term now may save money in the long run or it could cost you dearly.

For Example - Joltin Joe Charbonneau won ROY and then...

How did Jerome Walton work out? Nelson Liriano?


Chris Young...

That's the risk

russ99
08-07-2009, 11:26 AM
This. I'd love to see him come to spring training next year locked up for the next 8+ years.

Well that's the thing. I'm really surprised Longoria gave up two prime FA years as club options.

If the Sox signed Beckham to an extension now, we'd be paying him much more in years 2-3 and I doubt we'd get much relief in years 4-5, even with arb figured in. Realistically, I doubt Beckham's representatives would be interested in locking in a 6th or 7th year even with an option, since the good players make the big bucks in their first FA.

Since we have other players we need to lock in well before Beckham hits arb, I'd think Kenny & Rich would wait a year or two before trying to sign Bacon to an extension and by then we'll see how he progresses as a player and how much of his arb/FA years would be smart to lock in.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 11:26 AM
Gavin had 2 full years of service time - that would the equivalent to waiting until after next year. We can do that...but then the cost goes way up.

I'll be a little surprised if Beckham isn't willing to wait that long.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 11:27 AM
Chris Young...

That's the risk

Yes, but their swings and approach to hitting are so different I don't think Beckham is near the risk Young was.

oeo
08-07-2009, 11:29 AM
Chris Young...

That's the risk

Chris Young was still being paid on potential, which was very stupid. He's never had a great season. Yeah, he hit 30 homers a couple years ago, but the rest of his numbers were not much to write home about.

Beckham isn't just potential, the guy is tearing the cover off the ball right now. And there is still that potential for the power numbers to go up.

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:30 AM
I'll be a little surprised if Beckham isn't willing to wait that long.

He has no choice - he will wait as long as it needs - it's just that the cost goes up as time goes down.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 11:31 AM
He has no choice - he will wait as long as it needs - it's just that the cost goes up as time goes down.

I would think that would be something Beckham would want...

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:32 AM
Yes, but their swings and approach to hitting are so different I don't think Beckham is near the risk Young was.


Young was a 5 tool player and an HOF lock. He was no risk. I heard that here at WSI. There's ample evidence to prove it.

jabrch
08-07-2009, 11:36 AM
I would think that would be something Beckham would want...

Maybe...but the risk in that is large. One major injury... There's also no guarantee (as much as I love drinking the Beckham cool-aid) that he is a .300/.400/.500 calibre guy. It looks that way - but to be guaranteed, at an absolute minimum, 20ish mm dollars at the cost of locking down to 2 or 3 FA years at 11-15mm (still not chump change) might be worth it to Gordon.

If it were me, I'd take the gauranteed money. A lot can happen between today and tomorrow.

russ99
08-07-2009, 11:40 AM
Maybe...but the risk in that is large. One major injury... There's also no guarantee (as much as I love drinking the Beckham cool-aid) that he is a .300/.400/.500 calibre guy. It looks that way - but to be guaranteed, at an absolute minimum, 20ish mm dollars at the cost of locking down to 2 or 3 FA years at 11-15mm (still not chump change) might be worth it to Gordon.

If it were me, I'd take the gauranteed money. A lot can happen between today and tomorrow.

Would Beckham really want to do that?

He's a 22 year old kid with tons of potential and he's having a fantastic rookie year.

Why would he take less than he could in his 6th and 7th years? Just to be nice? Just because Longoria sold his earning potential short on years 6 and 7 doesn't mean Beckham would.

And it's a mutual agreement. Both sides need something to lock in that kind of deal.

Domeshot17
08-07-2009, 11:45 AM
Would Beckham really want to do that?

He's a 22 year old kid with tons of potential and he's having a fantastic rookie year.

Why would he take less than he could in his 6th and 7th years? Just to be nice? Just because Longoria sold his earning potential short on years 6 and 7 doesn't mean Beckham would.

And it's a mutual agreement. Both sides need something to lock in that kind of deal.

But he traded the earnings potential for something long term. auto resign and arby are not locked in. If he gets hurt, hes hurt, thats it. Now if he gets hurt or something happens, he has made enough money to never work again and live comfortably

jabrch
08-07-2009, 12:03 PM
Would Beckham really want to do that?

Why would he take less than he could in his 6th and 7th years?

To guarantee himself 23mm in the first 6.

Just to be nice?

You think that's why other players have signed similar deals?

Just because Longoria sold his earning potential short on years 6 and 7 doesn't mean Beckham would.

You seriously don't understand the concept? Are you seriously telling me you don't understand guaranteeing 23mm over 6, then getting 33-42 over the next three instead of being locked in at the minimum for 3, then having to go to arbitration for 3 more (and what if you shred a knee?) and then risking what the FA market will be and what you will be worth at age 28? Come on Russ. Don't tell me you see no logic there.


And it's a mutual agreement. Both sides need something to lock in that kind of deal.

Of course - that's what the Longoria deal was. Guaranteeing 23mm, worst case for Longoria is that he then is a star and plays 3 more years for 14mm per. Both sides got something. The Rays got a fixed cost for the long term, with an out after a 20mm risk.

I'm not saying either side has to do this. I brought up the question if it makes sense.

We talked about this last year with TCQ. There's no reason not to consider it with Gordon and there is no reason Gordon wouldn't at least want to consider it with the Sox.

southside rocks
08-07-2009, 12:25 PM
An interesting difference between Longoria and Beckham is that EL was never touted as a 'can't miss' prospect when he was a young youth. ESPN aired a really interesting program last night on Longoria's mental approach to the game and how it really kicked in when he was playing at Long Beach State; he wasn't drafted out of high school, but after the training he got at LBS, he was drafted by the Rays out of college.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231526-mental-mastery-evan-longorias-leap-to-stardom

Beckham, OTOH, has been a star-in-the-making (or touted as one) for all of his playing days, it seems like.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Beckham

The difference those facts may make? Beckham may have larger goals and contracts in his long-term plans than Longoria did. Not saying that Longoria made a bad choice at all, just that Beckham may see larger payoffs down the road and HE might not want to lock in with one team for that many years.

Noneck
08-07-2009, 01:06 PM
If the Sox can give Viciedo a 4yr 10m contract, I don't see why giving Beckham a Longoria type contract 6yr 17.5m, should create any type of problem at all.

SCCWS
08-07-2009, 01:08 PM
An interesting difference between Longoria and Beckham is that EL was never touted as a 'can't miss' prospect when he was a young youth. ESPN aired a really interesting program last night on Longoria's mental approach to the game and how it really kicked in when he was playing at Long Beach State; he wasn't drafted out of high school, but after the training he got at LBS, he was drafted by the Rays out of college.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231526-mental-mastery-evan-longorias-leap-to-stardom

Beckham, OTOH, has been a star-in-the-making (or touted as one) for all of his playing days, it seems like.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Beckham

The difference those facts may make? Beckham may have larger goals and contracts in his long-term plans than Longoria did. Not saying that Longoria made a bad choice at all, just that Beckham may see larger payoffs down the road and HE might not want to lock in with one team for that many years.


HUH???? Beckham also went undrafted out of high school.

southside rocks
08-07-2009, 04:34 PM
HUH???? Beckham also went undrafted out of high school.

You're right, I should have checked that. Kind of blows my theory, huh? Too bad, I like a good theory and I thought I had one.

BubblingCalderon
08-07-2009, 04:56 PM
I'd wait until the All Star break next season. I'm still afraid of the sophomore slump. For every Longoria and Braun there is you have plenty of players like Geovany Soto and Mike Caruso.

Huisj
08-07-2009, 04:58 PM
You're right, I should have checked that. Kind of blows my theory, huh? Too bad, I like a good theory and I thought I had one.

Could be that he would have been in a later round but teams passed because they knew he was going to Georgia anyway.

ShoelessJoeS
08-07-2009, 05:00 PM
An interesting difference between Longoria and Beckham is that EL was never touted as a 'can't miss' prospect when he was a young youth. ESPN aired a really interesting program last night on Longoria's mental approach to the game and how it really kicked in when he was playing at Long Beach State; he wasn't drafted out of high school, but after the training he got at LBS, he was drafted by the Rays out of college.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231526-mental-mastery-evan-longorias-leap-to-stardom

Beckham, OTOH, has been a star-in-the-making (or touted as one) for all of his playing days, it seems like.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Beckham

The difference those facts may make? Beckham may have larger goals and contracts in his long-term plans than Longoria did. Not saying that Longoria made a bad choice at all, just that Beckham may see larger payoffs down the road and HE might not want to lock in with one team for that many years."Gordon Beckham (known as Bacon) played quarterback..."

I LOL'd when I say that. :smile:

Britt Burns
08-07-2009, 10:06 PM
Getting him on a similar contract as Longoria would be a total steal.

LoveYourSuit
08-07-2009, 11:00 PM
It's no risk for the Sox. IF the Indians could do it with Sizemore we sure can do the same. I don't think the Indians are crying poor right now with Sizemore having and injury/poor season.

InKennyWeTrust
08-07-2009, 11:01 PM
You know, for all this talk about the contract Evan signed, we're forgetting than another young position player named Ryan Brawn signed his own long-term contract, a mere month later:


8 years/$45M (2008-15)

signed extension with Milwaukee 5/15/08, replacing 1 year/$0.455M contract for 2008 renewed 3/2/08

$2.3M signing bonus
08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M
may earn additional $6M if Braun qualifies as a Super 2 after 2009 season (increasing salaries to: 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$7.5M, 13:$9M)
award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection
no-trade clause 2008-11, limited no-trade clause 2012-13 (may block deals to 12 clubs), limited no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)
perks: suite for home games
Braun to donate $25,000 annually to club charity
Perhaps that is a more realistic option to look at.

Shoeless
08-07-2009, 11:23 PM
You know, for all this talk about the contract Evan signed, we're forgetting than another young position player named Ryan Brawn signed his own long-term contract, a mere month later:


Perhaps that is a more realistic option to look at.

I like that deal. Kenny, make it happen. This guy is our future.

RedPinStripes
08-08-2009, 12:59 AM
I really don't like this talk this soon. How long is he under contract? Gotta be at least 5 years. See what he does and give him a big deal a year , maybe 2 before he's eligible for arbitration if he's as good as he looks like he CAN be. MLB pitchers catch up to guys. Hopefully he catches up to them when they adjust.

Eddo144
08-10-2009, 10:02 AM
I really don't like this talk this soon. How long is he under contract? Gotta be at least 5 years. See what he does and give him a big deal a year , maybe 2 before he's eligible for arbitration if he's as good as he looks like he CAN be. MLB pitchers catch up to guys. Hopefully he catches up to them when they adjust.
I'm not exactly sure how service time works, but while rookies are under team control, it's not as simple as being on a "contract". That is, after a few years of paying a rookie virtually nothing, they go to arbitration, where you basically pay them as if they had been a free agent, but only for one year at a time. That's why it's nice to sign a stud to a long-term contract well before they get to arbitration (because by then, there's very little incentive for a true star to sign a deal and miss out on arbitration money).

I second that Braun's deal, while not as team-friendly as Longoria's, is also good for the Brewers; I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox offer Beckham something similar.