PDA

View Full Version : Sox and Cubs will finish the season in 1st place


Rockabilly
08-06-2009, 09:44 PM
according to Phil Rogers.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-07-rogers-baseball-aug07,0,1406311.column

I can't see the Cubs beating out the Cards..

Also I can't see the Sox bringing back both Dye and Thome next season..

aryzner
08-06-2009, 09:51 PM
Dye I can see. Thome no.

doublem23
08-06-2009, 10:00 PM
Dye I can see. Thome no.

Someone more familiar with the CBA can answer this for me, but isn't there a provision that says if the Sox want to bring Thome back, he has to earn at least 80% of his current salary? If so that means we'd have to pay him $10.4 M for his services next year; highly unlikely.

If the Sox aren't required to pay him a certain amount, then maybe the door stays open? At this point, I'm sure Jim would love to stay in Chicago; close to home and the Cell's HR-friendly dimensions give him a good chance to reach 600, plus right now the Sox give him as good a chance as anywhere to get the elusive ring in 2010.

Andy T Clown
08-06-2009, 10:16 PM
Someone more familiar with the CBA can answer this for me, but isn't there a provision that says if the Sox want to bring Thome back, he has to earn at least 80% of his current salary? If so that means we'd have to pay him $10.4 M for his services next year; highly unlikely.

If the Sox aren't required to pay him a certain amount, then maybe the door stays open? At this point, I'm sure Jim would love to stay in Chicago; close to home and the Cell's HR-friendly dimensions give him a good chance to reach 600, plus right now the Sox give him as good a chance as anywhere to get the elusive ring in 2010.

Can you say "home town discount"?

gobears1987
08-06-2009, 10:26 PM
Can you say "home town discount"?
It isn't a matter of how much Thome is willing to take, it's a matter that the CBA doesn't let him take less than that amount with the Sox.

If Phil Rogers knew baseball, he would've known that. Of course he's a sorry excuse for a baseball writer so he isn't familiar with things that most fans know such as the CBA. I'd expect better from a journalist, but then again he works for the Trib.

fram40
08-06-2009, 10:29 PM
It isn't a matter of how much Thome is willing to take, it's a matter that the CBA doesn't let him take less than that amount with the Sox.

If Phil Rogers knew baseball, he would've known that. Of course he's a sorry excuse for a baseball writer so he isn't familiar with things that most fans know such as the CBA. I'd expect better from a journalist, but then again he works for the Trib.


Isn't the minimum amount for arbitration cases only?

Oblong
08-06-2009, 10:37 PM
Isn't the minimum amount for arbitration cases only?

Yes.

The old rule used to be that if you didn't offer your pending FA arbitration that you could not negotiate with them until May 1. In arbitration you cannot offer a figure for 80% less than their previous salary.

Obviously the Sox wouldn't offer Thome arbitration because he'd be a fool not to accept a guaranteed $10 million a year and I don't think the Sox would want to pay him that. But by declining to offer the Sox are still free to negotiate with him for far less. There's no floor. (Although I think there may be a veteran minimum, like $1 million, not 100% on that)

Hitmen77
08-06-2009, 11:14 PM
Yes.

The old rule used to be that if you didn't offer your pending FA arbitration that you could not negotiate with them until May 1. In arbitration you cannot offer a figure for 80% less than their previous salary.

Obviously the Sox wouldn't offer Thome arbitration because he'd be a fool not to accept a guaranteed $10 million a year and I don't think the Sox would want to pay him that. But by declining to offer the Sox are still free to negotiate with him for far less. There's no floor. (Although I think there may be a veteran minimum, like $1 million, not 100% on that)

Is that rule no longer in place?

doublem23
08-06-2009, 11:16 PM
Is that rule no longer in place?

I thought it still was. I was under the impression you either had to offer a guy arbitration (and 80% of his previous year's salary) or wait until the season was already a month into swing before you could even call him and see if he wants to play again.

johnnyg83
08-06-2009, 11:27 PM
Rogers predications are the kiss of death. I wish he'd said we'd barely miss it.

voodoochile
08-06-2009, 11:31 PM
I thought it still was. I was under the impression you either had to offer a guy arbitration (and 80% of his previous year's salary) or wait until the season was already a month into swing before you could even call him and see if he wants to play again.

That's the part that confuses me too.

They don't have to offer arbitration until 12/1 or so, but the FA period starts right after the season ends. Can they not negotiate with him without offering the arbitration? What if another teams jumps in with a 2 year $5M per offer. Can the Sox not offer to match it?

fram40
08-06-2009, 11:35 PM
I thought it still was. I was under the impression you either had to offer a guy arbitration (and 80% of his previous year's salary) or wait until the season was already a month into swing before you could even call him and see if he wants to play again.

so the Sox could offer Thome $5 million any time before the arbitration deadline and Thome could accept and no CBA rules would be broken?

(or whatever amount they would choose to be appropriate)

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 12:09 AM
so the Sox could offer Thome $5 million any time before the arbitration deadline and Thome could accept and no CBA rules would be broken?

(or whatever amount they would choose to be appropriate)

I think so, but don't know. Here's a post I put up in the first post game thread for the Angels' series. The link attempts to explain it, but the whole "under control" aspect leaves me confused still. Anyone who can explain this it would be greatly appreciated.


http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works

I get confused by this too, so perhaps someone can explain this in super simple terms...

Is a player who files for FA still considered "under the control of the team that last employed him" or could a team compete at lower rates once the player files?

Is filing for FA automatic at the end of a contract for a veteran of at least 6 years or can they look at other teams offers while still forcing their last team to offer at least 80%?

For example: After the WS can Jose look at offers from other teams while forcing the Sox to offer at least 80% of this years salary or once he files for FA are they free to offer him any contract at all?

I know that once they agree to aribtration, the 80% rule goes out the window and the two sides are free to compromise in any way they wish.

Would the Sox have to resign Jose and Thome prior to the end of the season to be not bound by the 80% rule? That article seems to imply they cannot do that, but someone said they could.

Can we settle this for us dopes who are confused? Anyone got a firm answer?

Oblong
08-07-2009, 07:43 AM
There is no longer the May 1 deadline.

A player has to file for FA within 15 days of the end of the World Series. During that time the club has exclusive negotiating rights, regardless of when the player files, first day, 5th day, 15th, etc. They can sign with the old club at any time during that period. Once the player files he may go into "general" talks with other clubs, but no offers or contract terms are allowed to be discussed until that 15 days is reached. (wink wink)

Dec 1 is the arbitration offer deadline. By Dec 7 the player has to accept. If he accepts, he goes on the team's 40 man roster and cannot talk with othe teams. They can still negotiate all the way until the arbitration hearing.

If he declines, he's still free to talk with all 30 teams.


so the Sox could offer Thome $5 million any time before the arbitration deadline and Thome could accept and no CBA rules would be broken?

Yes.

Can they not negotiate with him without offering the arbitration? What if another teams jumps in with a 2 year $5M per offer. Can the Sox not offer to match it?

The Sox can negotiate with him at any time, regardless of the arbitration process. Another team can formally negotiate with him 15 days after the World Series ends, provided he files for free agency.

The only way arbitration really affects free agency nowadays is with the draft picks, unless the player accepts, at which point he goes back to the team and will get a one year deal not lower than 80% of his previous salary. However, the team then has the right to cut the player in spring training and not be on the hook for his whole salary. Arbitration awards are not guaranteed. They get either 30 or 45 days of termination pay, depending on when they are cut in spring training.

russ99
08-07-2009, 08:00 AM
I thought it still was. I was under the impression you either had to offer a guy arbitration (and 80% of his previous year's salary) or wait until the season was already a month into swing before you could even call him and see if he wants to play again.

The May 1st exclusion for re-signing previous players who are FAs is now off the CBA. It was removed last negotiation and been taken advantage of a few times by Clemens re-signing with Houston.

The 80% is only if the Sox offer arbitration, and since Jim is a full FA, there's no reason to do that. I doubt Jim is a "B" FA (unless DH's have separate rules) so the draft pick wouldn't be worth it.

soxyess
08-07-2009, 08:12 AM
I would not bring back Dye for the 12 million option. I would rather sign Abreu for two years.

soxfanreggie
08-07-2009, 08:44 AM
I'd be willing to offer him $1-3 million for the year and see what happens. I see him playing here or in Cleveland again. I'm not sure where else he'd go in the AL.

thedudeabides
08-07-2009, 08:54 AM
There is no longer the May 1 deadline.

A player has to file for FA within 15 days of the end of the World Series. During that time the club has exclusive negotiating rights, regardless of when the player files, first day, 5th day, 15th, etc. They can sign with the old club at any time during that period. Once the player files he may go into "general" talks with other clubs, but no offers or contract terms are allowed to be discussed until that 15 days is reached. (wink wink)

Dec 1 is the arbitration offer deadline. By Dec 7 the player has to accept. If he accepts, he goes on the team's 40 man roster and cannot talk with othe teams. They can still negotiate all the way until the arbitration hearing.

If he declines, he's still free to talk with all 30 teams.



Yes.



The Sox can negotiate with him at any time, regardless of the arbitration process. Another team can formally negotiate with him 15 days after the World Series ends, provided he files for free agency.

The only way arbitration really affects free agency nowadays is with the draft picks, unless the player accepts, at which point he goes back to the team and will get a one year deal not lower than 80% of his previous salary. However, the team then has the right to cut the player in spring training and not be on the hook for his whole salary. Arbitration awards are not guaranteed. They get either 30 or 45 days of termination pay, depending on when they are cut in spring training.

I believe the May 1 date was lifted in the 2007 agreement, that goes until 2011.

Andy Petite is a perfect example from last year. He made $16 million dollars in 2008 and the Yankees declined arbitration. Petite had talks with the Dodgers, but decided to return to the Yankees for $5.5 million, plus incentives that could put him above $10 million. So, Phil Rogers is right in saying the Sox can bring Thome back at a big discount.

dickallen15
08-07-2009, 09:19 AM
It isn't a matter of how much Thome is willing to take, it's a matter that the CBA doesn't let him take less than that amount with the Sox.

If Phil Rogers knew baseball, he would've known that. Of course he's a sorry excuse for a baseball writer so he isn't familiar with things that most fans know such as the CBA. I'd expect better from a journalist, but then again he works for the Trib.

If he accepted arbitration, this would be true. He could sign an extension right now for the minimum.

Before you pop off about people not knowing what they are writing about, you may want to make sure you know what you are writing about.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 09:28 AM
There is no longer the May 1 deadline.

A player has to file for FA within 15 days of the end of the World Series. During that time the club has exclusive negotiating rights, regardless of when the player files, first day, 5th day, 15th, etc. They can sign with the old club at any time during that period. Once the player files he may go into "general" talks with other clubs, but no offers or contract terms are allowed to be discussed until that 15 days is reached. (wink wink)

Dec 1 is the arbitration offer deadline. By Dec 7 the player has to accept. If he accepts, he goes on the team's 40 man roster and cannot talk with othe teams. They can still negotiate all the way until the arbitration hearing.

If he declines, he's still free to talk with all 30 teams.



Yes.



The Sox can negotiate with him at any time, regardless of the arbitration process. Another team can formally negotiate with him 15 days after the World Series ends, provided he files for free agency.

The only way arbitration really affects free agency nowadays is with the draft picks, unless the player accepts, at which point he goes back to the team and will get a one year deal not lower than 80% of his previous salary. However, the team then has the right to cut the player in spring training and not be on the hook for his whole salary. Arbitration awards are not guaranteed. They get either 30 or 45 days of termination pay, depending on when they are cut in spring training.
And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set ye free...

Thanks, Oblong. You're alright for a Kittens fan...:D:

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 09:33 AM
I'd be willing to offer him $1-3 million for the year and see what happens. I see him playing here or in Cleveland again. I'm not sure where else he'd go in the AL.

I thought so too, though I don't think your numbers are near accurate, but honestly, his offensive numbers are as good as anyone on the team. His OPS is best on the team (barring a few pitchers with a few at bats) and he's on pace to hit 30+ HR again.

I think a lot of teams might have interest in a big productive LH bat. I think he'll sign for $5-7M base with some incentive clauses based on PA and HR.

Any player with a 900 OPS is worth that much even if they can't play the field.

gobears1987
08-07-2009, 09:38 AM
Even as a DH I think Thome is an "A" FA and thus worth some valuable draft picks as it's based off of the last two years of production.

Railsplitter
08-07-2009, 09:39 AM
according to Phil Rogers.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-07-rogers-baseball-aug07,0,1406311.column

I can't see the Cubs beating out the Cards..


The Cardinals have played four more games than the Cubs, which means the Cards have four days where they can't match a possible Cubs' win with one of thier own.

Converslt, this could mean the Cards will be better rested down the stretch.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 09:46 AM
The Cardinals have played four more games than the Cubs, which means the Cards have four days where they can't match a possible Cubs' win with one of thier own.

Converslt, this could mean the Cards will be better rested down the stretch.

I can't believe those two teams are already done playing each other for the year. In fact most of the rest of the flubbie schedule is against teams outside their division. Those two 4 game sets in LA and SF are going to be rough on them.

Edit: WHoops there's another 3 game set in SL in September.

Domeshot17
08-07-2009, 09:57 AM
1- Thome is not going to be offered arbitration, and no one is going to sign him for Type A. If we offered him Arbitration, he would surely just stay here for his 10 million. He is comfortable here.

2- If Thome is willing to sign a 6-7 million dollar deal to chase his 600th homer, I would be all for it. There is not going to be much in the way of left handed power hitters on the market this year IIRC.

3- I don't see Thome in Cleveland. Cleveland is paying Hafner far too much money to sit him on the bench for a Jim Thome farewell tour, and Thome is going to want to play somewhere we can he chase 600.

Oblong
08-07-2009, 10:02 AM
A buddy of mine has come pretty close to reverse engineering the Elias rankings and he projects Thome to be a type B, FWIW.

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2009/06/updated-elias-rankings.html

Thanks Voodoo.

doublem23
08-07-2009, 10:02 AM
2- If Thome is willing to sign a 6-7 million dollar deal to chase his 600th homer, I would be all for it. There is not going to be much in the way of left handed power hitters on the market this year IIRC.

I can only think of one off the top of my head,

http://msn.foxsports.com/fe/img/MLB/Headshots/140x170/5698.jpg

35th and Shields
08-07-2009, 10:11 AM
I can only think of one off the top of my head,

http://msn.foxsports.com/fe/img/MLB/Headshots/140x170/5698.jpg

I'd rather spend on Crawford. :praying:

soxfanreggie
08-07-2009, 10:17 AM
If I could bring in one (available) guy into the fold, there would be serious consideration on my part for the guy to be Carl Crawford.

Voodoo, I could only hope that we could sign Thome for under $5 million. He really doesn't need the money, and maybe he'd be willing to take a bit less if it was used to further improve the team in other areas. You have to think he'd like a World Series ring before he retires. That being said, I would probably consider a $5 million base deal with heavy incentives based on PAs and production milestones.

doublem23
08-07-2009, 10:36 AM
I'd rather spend on Crawford. :praying:

That's moot if Tampa picks up his option for '10.

35th and Shields
08-07-2009, 10:42 AM
You're right but it's still possible they decide not to. They'll have tough decisions down the road as their owner has stated after last season that he can barely can afford the salaries already being paid.

Maybe they'll decide to invest in others and not Crawford.

comet2k
08-07-2009, 12:19 PM
It isn't a matter of how much Thome is willing to take, it's a matter that the CBA doesn't let him take less than that amount with the Sox.

If Phil Rogers knew baseball, he would've known that. Of course he's a sorry excuse for a baseball writer so he isn't familiar with things that most fans know such as the CBA. I'd expect better from a journalist, but then again he works for the Trib.

Wow. Wonder what we would see if you had Rogers' job.

I don't agree with all his opinions, but he does know baseball and a lot of key people who are good sources.

fram40
08-07-2009, 06:07 PM
I think a lot of teams might have interest in a big productive LH bat. I think he'll sign for $5-7M base with some incentive clauses based on PA and HR.



Voodoo - I have another question regarding the CBA.

Is it kosher to offer incentive clauses based on performance? (e.g., homers, RBIs, hits, etc)

I thought they could only give incentives based on PAs, games played, etc. I believe I read once - long ago - that incentives based on performance were not allowed, but incentives for health or availability only were allowed. I hope you see the difference between th etwo types of incentives.

voodoochile
08-07-2009, 06:46 PM
Voodoo - I have another question regarding the CBA.

Is it kosher to offer incentive clauses based on performance? (e.g., homers, RBIs, hits, etc)

I thought they could only give incentives based on PAs, games played, etc. I believe I read once - long ago - that incentives based on performance were not allowed, but incentives for health or availability only were allowed. I hope you see the difference between th etwo types of incentives.

I don't know. I always assumed you could, but maybe not.

fram40
08-08-2009, 10:50 AM
a quick google turned up a Jayson Stark column that confirmed my recollection. Incentive clauses can be based only on playing time and individual awards, not for any kind of performance.

Stark presents an interesting analysis of Aroid's pursuit of historical milestones and related bonuses to be paid by the Yankees. Are these performance incentives or marketing incentives?


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings090507

ohiosoxfan
08-27-2009, 02:04 PM
Wasn't too long ago when Phil Rogers predicted that both Sox and Cubs would win their divisions. . . didn't take long for the Cubs to go 9 games back and Sox to go 4.5. How do these people keep their jobs? Aren't their any good writers out there?:(:

spawn
08-27-2009, 02:17 PM
Wasn't too long ago when Phil Rogers predicted that both Sox and Cubs would win their divisions. . . didn't take long for the Cubs to go 9 games back and Sox to go 4.5. How do these people keep their jobs? Aren't their any good writers out there?:(:
How do weathermen/women keep their jobs? They aren't always accurate with their predictions. A faulty prediction doesn't make someone a bad writer. :shrug:

dickallen15
08-27-2009, 02:39 PM
How do weathermen/women keep their jobs? They aren't always accurate with their predictions. A faulty prediction doesn't make someone a bad writer. :shrug:

Rogers can't win. If he says the Sox will finish in 3rd, the link would be posted on this board with a thread as to how much of an idiot he is. If he says they will win and they don't he's even a bigger idiot. Besides, if he could determine the future performance in baseball with 100% accuracy, he wouldn't be a writer, and he probably wouldn't have to be working.

ChicagoHoosier
08-27-2009, 03:16 PM
In all fairness to Phil Rogers, if you watched Baseball Tonight or some other national shows, I recall several analysts predicting the Sox would come out on top of the division. Hard for someone like Steve Phillips to predict the Sox would have a guy picked off 3rd base in extra innings, or they would fumble a grounder, extend the inning and meltdown completely from there, or that the bullpen of Jenks, Thornton, Dotel, and Linebrink would individually have slumps that all costs the White Sox games or chances at games.

I thought Rogers' points in his article were fair and it wasn't a bad prediction.