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View Full Version : Pena a prelude to a Jenks deal?


mzh
07-10-2009, 10:53 PM
This is in a way two separate thoughts linked together-

Honestly, does anybody see a reason why KW would make that trade for Tony Pena? Sure, we had filler guys like Jimmy Gobble, but I thought our bullpen was all right as is. Does anyone else think that maybe this deal was a setup for a trade involving Bobby Jenks? We have a couple guys who could compete for the closing job, and maybe Pena was brought in for that or to fill the role of whoever that job might go to. The next part is some wild speculation on my part: What if Bobby Jenks was a factor in a deal involving Roy Halladay? Toronto has had some well-documented closer troubles, Jenks is still a relatively cheap option for an established closer. Just my thoughts...

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 10:56 PM
I wouldn't be shocked if Jenks got traded, but I think it's more about getting a strong RH reliever who will be relatively cheap for the next 3 years. At the least Pena is an inexpensive replacement for Dotel and might end up being even more.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 10:56 PM
This is in a way two separate thoughts linked together-

Honestly, does anybody see a reason why KW would make that trade for Tony Pena? Sure, we had filler guys like Jimmy Gobble, but I thought our bullpen was all right as is. Does anyone else think that maybe this deal was a setup for a trade involving Bobby Jenks? We have a couple guys who could compete for the closing job, and maybe Pena was brought in for that or to fill the role of whoever that job might go to. The next part is some wild speculation on my part: What if Bobby Jenks was a factor in a deal involving Roy Halladay? Toronto has had some well-documented closer troubles, Jenks is still a relatively cheap option for an established closer. Just my thoughts...

Was thinking the exact same thing.

Maybe Jenks is part of a big trade coming soon. Jenks is very expendable now that there is more bullpen depth.


Jenks, Alexei, Flowers, Richard for Roy?

I think that could be enough.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 10:59 PM
Jenks, Alexei, Flowers, Richard for Roy?

I'll be shocked if the Sox trade Ramirez based on how much he brings to the team and how cheap he is for the next 4 years.

mzh
07-10-2009, 11:03 PM
I'll be shocked if the Sox trade Ramirez based on how much he brings to the team and how cheap he is for the next 4 years.

Which, on the other hand, might be the reason the Jays or any other team might give up more rather than less for him.

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:04 PM
This is in a way two separate thoughts linked together-

Honestly, does anybody see a reason why KW would make that trade for Tony Pena?
Williams has traded for a ton of middle relievers. Nothing new.
What I don't understand is the price....and that it was with Arizona makes me skeptical.

mzh
07-10-2009, 11:09 PM
Williams has traded for a ton of middle relievers. Nothing new.


Mike Mcdougal, and who else? Not counting post-deadline waiver deals that didn't mean anything...

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:13 PM
Mike Mcdougal, and who else? Not counting post-deadline waiver deals that didn't mean anything...
Some may have been waiver deals, but just off of the top of my head:
Riske
Aarsma
Cisco
Ozuna
Marte
Vizcaino
Glover
Schowenweis
Whoops - forget the best of the bunch: Matt Thornton.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 11:13 PM
Williams has traded for a ton of middle relievers. Nothing new.
What I don't understand is the price....and that it was with Arizona makes me skeptical.

Allen may not be as valuable to the Sox as fans think. Yeah, he might have a solid bat, but first base is pretty clogged in the organization. I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox extended PK when this deal is up if he has solid couple of years. So far he is. While PK might slow down a bit, it's not like 1B is a demanding defensive position. The fact he is a solid defender for his position doesn't mean he has to become the DH if he slips a bit.

Beyond that, they also have Flowers who may or may not become good enough to play catcher in the Majors.

Finally, they may be looking for a way to move TCQ to a less strenuous position to protect his feet. If Allen is close to ready he may just be blocked, so while fans may have thought he was a high price to pay for a middle reliever, the Sox may have been willing to part with him because he was simply position blocked.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 11:15 PM
I'll be shocked if the Sox trade Ramirez based on how much he brings to the team and how cheap he is for the next 4 years.


Yeah, but the Jays will be looking for major pieces of value in return for potential CY Young pitcher.

Between Alexei and Beckham, I rather give them Alexei because Gordon appears to have so much more baseball smarts in him than Alexei. In addition, Gordon we can control for 6 years while Alexei has 3 more years I believe.

Lip Man 1
07-10-2009, 11:15 PM
Tragg:

Scott Sullivan
Antonio Osuna

Lip

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:16 PM
Finally, they may be looking for a way to move TCQ to a less strenuous position to protect his feet. If Allen is close to ready he may just be blocked, so while fans may have thought he was a high price to pay for a middle reliever, the Sox may have been willing to part with him because he was simply position blocked.
I understand that and I think you're probably right.
But that explains why we'd be willing to trade him - not really why we got (in my opinion) so little for him.

And with our roster, I think yall are crazy to give all that for Halladay. With a strong roster without so many holes and with a good defensive team, maybe. But the Jays have never been close.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 11:16 PM
Allen may not be as valuable to the Sox as fans think. Yeah, he might have a solid bat, but first base is pretty clogged in the organization. I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox extended PK when this deal is up if he has solid couple of years. So far he is. While PK might slow down a bit, it's not like 1B is a demanding defensive position. The fact he is a solid defender for his position doesn't mean he has to become the DH if he slips a bit.

Beyond that, they also have Flowers who may or may not become good enough to play catcher in the Majors.

Finally, they may be looking for a way to move TCQ to a less strenuous position to protect his feet. If Allen is close to ready he may just be blocked, so while fans may have thought he was a high price to pay for a middle reliever, the Sox may have been willing to part with him because he was simply position blocked.


I agree.

PK IMO still has plenty of years left as being a good defensive 1B.

He keeps himself in great shape too.

mzh
07-10-2009, 11:16 PM
I mean trades made during the middle of the season.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 11:18 PM
Yeah, but the Jays will be looking for major pieces of value in return for potential CY Young pitcher.

Between Alexei and Beckham, I rather give them Alexei because Gordon appears to have so much more baseball smarts in him than Alexei. In addition, Gordon we can control for 6 years while Alexei has 3 more years I believe.

IIRC, Alexei signed a 6 year $6M contract. He's in his second year of that deal. Beckham will make more than that by the time his 6 years are up - from the looks of things, a LOT more than that. In fact his third year of arbitration might be that much all by itself.

Noneck
07-10-2009, 11:20 PM
IIRC, Alexei signed a 6 year $6M contract. He's in his second year of that deal. Beckham will make more than that by the time his 6 years are up - from the looks of things, a LOT more than that. In fact his third year of arbitration might be that much all by itself.
4 years/$4.75M (2008-11)

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 11:22 PM
IIRC, Alexei signed a 6 year $6M contract. He's in his second year of that deal. Beckham will make more than that by the time his 6 years are up - from the looks of things, a LOT more than that. In fact his third year of arbitration might be that much all by itself.


I thought Alexei singed a 4 year deal, my bad.

Wow, so that's an even call.

Beckham might even have more trade value in this case lowering what the Sox would have to give up.

Beckham, Jenks, Richard?

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 11:23 PM
I mean trades made during the middle of the season.


Scott Sullivan was a middle of the season trade.

Noneck
07-10-2009, 11:24 PM
I thought Alexei singed a 4 year deal, my bad.



Everything out there and what I always read was a 4 year deal not 6.

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:24 PM
I mean trades made during the middle of the season.
Riske definitely was midseason
I think Sullivan was.
I believe Schoenweiss was

Further, I've never seen Williams make a prelude trade. People always talk about him flipping this or that, or clearing room for something, but it never happens.

I think Voodoo is probably right - he was expendable. And I figure he called his pals at Arizona and made the deal, without a lot of hard bargaining.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 11:28 PM
Everything out there and what I always read was a 4 year deal not 6.

I was going off of memory, I wouldn't be shocked if I was wrong. My apologies.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 11:34 PM
I was going off of memory, I wouldn't be shocked if I was wrong. My apologies.


Yeah, 6 years $6 million would sound like the bargain of the century. Someone would be firing his agent right now.

infohawk
07-10-2009, 11:34 PM
I may be in the minority, but assuming the Sox even have a chance to get Halladay by including some combination of guys like Flowers, Poreda, Alexi, Jordan Danks, etc, I'd just assume stand pat. This organization desperately needs to build a solid pipeline of young players who are ready to contribute at the major league level. I think that the Sox have finally started to draft better and have begun turning a corner that could help them become perennial contenders. I'd hate to see the Sox forfeit what looks like several promising players for a couple of years of Roy Halladay. I think we need an upgrade over Richard, but I'd be happy with a lesser deal for an average starter who can at least consistently keep the team in the game and not blow out the 'pen.

I will agree that Halladay would drastically improve the Sox this year, but I guess I'm patient enough to let things play out. If the Sox make the playoffs this year, terrific. If not, I still like what I'm seeing out of the younger players at the big league level, and like the fact that the team has some organizational depth throughout the system that could keep the Sox very competitive for a long time.

DumpJerry
07-10-2009, 11:37 PM
The acquisition of Pena has nothing to do with a pending deal.

He gives the team the flexibility to add Carrasco as a spot starter if someone goes down.

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:38 PM
I may be in the minority, but assuming the Sox even have a chance to get Halladay by including some combination of guys like Flowers, Poreda, Alexi, Jordan Danks, etc, I'd just assume stand pat. This organization desperately needs to build a solid pipeline of young players who are ready to contribute at the major league level. I think that the Sox have finally started to draft better and have begun turning a corner that could help them become perennial contenders. I'd hate to see the Sox forfeit what looks like several promising players for a couple of years of Roy Halladay. I think we need an upgrade over Richard, but I'd be happy with a lesser deal for an average starter who can at least consistently keep the team in the game and not blow out the 'pen.

I will agree that Halladay would drastically improve the Sox this year, but I guess I'm patient enough to let things play out. If the Sox make the playoffs this year, terrific. If not, I still like what I'm seeing out of the younger players at the big league level, and like the fact that the team has some organizational depth throughout the system that could keep the Sox stay very competitive for a long time.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

CLR01
07-10-2009, 11:42 PM
Can we stop with the X trade a preulde to a bigger trade, please? Seriously, after every trade we hear the same thing.

thomas35forever
07-10-2009, 11:43 PM
If Jenks is traded, does that mean Thornton is our closer? Probably.

drewcifer
07-10-2009, 11:45 PM
I love the idea of trading Jenks for talent, but not for a deal that includes either of Poreda, Link, or Beckham.

Poreda needs to be groomed for a SP, and seriously now. Moving him, even if we get Halladay, still leaves 2 holes next year.

Link is the best thing we have to being the next Jenks.

Beckham - Well, **** - we went from having a 3b in the wings for 2 years, to having to bring up a college draft after less than 90 ABs to get ready.

Use one of Nix/Getz in lieu of him.

Anyway, if there's a blockbuster involving Jenks, I don't see KW shooting that bullet for Halladay unless he's going to ink a deal for extra years on the trade with cash from Toronto (unlikely).

But, I do think Ricciardi is full of **** when he says they aren't looking to dump salary.

Whatever - if we're going to move value for value, Jenks is the best MOVABLE piece we have, IMO and still say with a straight face we are trying to contend. It's amazing he's been this good for this long, quite frankly.

Tragg
07-10-2009, 11:50 PM
If we trade Jenks, which I doubt, I further doubt that it's a blockbuster. Teams that want him will likely ship prospects to us.

drewcifer
07-10-2009, 11:59 PM
If we trade Jenks, which I doubt, I further doubt that it's a blockbuster. Teams that want him will likely ship prospects to us.

Why would Kenny even take a call from a team at deadline time unless they had more than prospects FOR BOBBY JENKS?

Tragg
07-11-2009, 12:05 AM
Why would Kenny even take a call from a team at deadline time unless they had more than prospects FOR BOBBY JENKS?
He probably wouldn't -I certainly don't think we're going to trade him. I think the only case that we would trade him is if Williams thinks we can't win it. That said - the Padres dumped Linebrink in a midseason deal a few years ago for prospects, and they were definitely in the race...usually get big return for relief pitchers this time of year.

But why would another team want to trade FOR Jenks, but give us major leaguers in return? A team that wants him is likely fighting for a playoff spot.

Usually in this major midseason deals, one team is taking prospects.

JermaineDye05
07-11-2009, 12:19 AM
I would've said you were crazy a couple days ago, but after seeing Ozzie bring Jenks in tonight in the 8th, I had to :scratch:. It got me wondering if Ozzie was either out of relievers or he was showing Jenks to some scouts.

drewcifer
07-11-2009, 12:29 AM
He probably wouldn't -I certainly don't think we're going to trade him. I think the only case that we would trade him is if Williams thinks we can't win it. That said - the Padres dumped Linebrink in a midseason deal a few years ago for prospects, and they were definitely in the race...usually get big return for relief pitchers this time of year.

But why would another team want to trade FOR Jenks, but give us major leaguers in return? A team that wants him is likely fighting for a playoff spot.

Usually in this major midseason deals, one team is taking prospects.

Ryan Church for Jeff Francouer. And that was in the same division!

P.S. - Omar Minaya is an idiot.

Harry Potter
07-11-2009, 12:49 AM
I would've said you were crazy a couple days ago, but after seeing Ozzie bring Jenks in tonight in the 8th, I had to :scratch:. It got me wondering if Ozzie was either out of relievers or he was showing Jenks to some scouts.

Probably because he hadn't pitched in over a week (last outing was July 2nd)

drewcifer
07-11-2009, 12:52 AM
Probably because he hadn't pitched in over a week (last outing was July 2nd)


Meh, that's only 6 games without an appearance. Shouldn't be a big deal for a closer.


*Edit - But you're right - his biggest gap this year.

JB98
07-11-2009, 12:57 AM
Probably because he hadn't pitched in over a week (last outing was July 2nd)

Yeah, I think he brought in Bobby tonight because Jenks was far and away the freshest arm in the bullpen. Almost everyone had to pitch yesterday after Richard got knocked out early.

kitekrazy
07-11-2009, 01:09 AM
I may be in the minority, but assuming the Sox even have a chance to get Halladay by including some combination of guys like Flowers, Poreda, Alexi, Jordan Danks, etc, I'd just assume stand pat. This organization desperately needs to build a solid pipeline of young players who are ready to contribute at the major league level. I think that the Sox have finally started to draft better and have begun turning a corner that could help them become perennial contenders. I'd hate to see the Sox forfeit what looks like several promising players for a couple of years of Roy Halladay. I think we need an upgrade over Richard, but I'd be happy with a lesser deal for an average starter who can at least consistently keep the team in the game and not blow out the 'pen.

I will agree that Halladay would drastically improve the Sox this year, but I guess I'm patient enough to let things play out. If the Sox make the playoffs this year, terrific. If not, I still like what I'm seeing out of the younger players at the big league level, and like the fact that the team has some organizational depth throughout the system that could keep the Sox very competitive for a long time.

Makes sense. Some reads, even from crack head Rodgers sounds like plugging holes in the bow while the stern is sinking.

kitekrazy
07-11-2009, 01:28 AM
If Jenks is traded, does that mean Thornton is our closer? Probably.

That's worse than replacing Fields with Crede. Thornton's not closer material.
Some of these trade scenarios just don't make sense. Jenks has been the only decent Sox closer this century.

Halladay isn't going anywhere. It's just another Peavey smoke screen.

It makes no sense for Kenny to do a white flag trade unless he likes articles about him complaining fans don't show up.

Outside of Dotel and Linebrink, I can't see trading anyone else makes today and tomorrow better.

Tragg
07-11-2009, 08:20 AM
Ryan Church for Jeff Francouer. And that was in the same division!

P.S. - Omar Minaya is an idiot.
That's not a major trade - that's a your under-achiever for my under-achiever/having a bad season.
We'll see

Oh, and if you're shopping Jenks, you should assuredly NOT bring him in in non-save situations - that's when he's at his worst. Jenks just needed some work an we needed a good inning pitched.

NLaloosh
07-11-2009, 11:58 AM
was thinking the exact same thing.

Maybe jenks is part of a big trade coming soon. Jenks is very expendable now that there is more bullpen depth.




Jenks, alexei, flowers, richard for roy?

I think that could be enough.

pass

A. Cavatica
07-11-2009, 01:14 PM
If we get Halladay, is that a prelude to a Pujols deal?

pmck003
07-11-2009, 01:14 PM
Bit of a hijack but surprised by how many people would rather trade Ramirez over Beckham. Jenks + Beckham for I think everyone would agree one of the top 5 pitchers in the league..Hell yea if you can sign Doc for a few more years. One of the more durable/dependable pitchers in the game too. I'm not anti-Beckham either; seems to have the attitude to be a very good player.

JermaineDye05
07-11-2009, 01:17 PM
If we get Halladay, is that a prelude to a Pujols deal?

You're half right. It would be a prelude to a 3 way deal where the Sox receive Albert and Lincecum.

UChicagoHP
07-11-2009, 02:13 PM
Beckham and Jenks for Halladay(only if he agrees to a long-term contract at a somewhat realistic price) would be fine with me. I love Beckham, but I don't think he has uber-elite potential like Halladay, and closers(besides the top 1 or 2 in the league) become over-paid the second they sign their long-term 8 figure deal(which is what I'm Jenks and his agent are probably looking for).

Stud pitching wins championships(once a team gets the playoffs, of course)...

JB98
07-11-2009, 02:15 PM
Bit of a hijack but surprised by how many people would rather trade Ramirez over Beckham. Jenks + Beckham for I think everyone would agree one of the top 5 pitchers in the league..Hell yea if you can sign Doc for a few more years. One of the more durable/dependable pitchers in the game too. I'm not anti-Beckham either; seems to have the attitude to be a very good player.

I wouldn't trade either Ramirez or Beckham for Halladay.

I think the Sox are better off trying to build a team from within. It seems like they finally have the pieces to do just that.

I don't want to blow that apart in some sort of "win now" scheme, especially given that the Sox have been hovering around .500 all season. Even if the Sox acquire Halladay, it would not make them the favorites to win the American League or the World Series.

UChicagoHP
07-11-2009, 02:24 PM
I wouldn't trade either Ramirez or Beckham for Halladay.

I think the Sox are better off trying to build a team from within. It seems like they finally have the pieces to do just that.

I don't want to blow that apart in some sort of "win now" scheme, especially given that the Sox have been hovering around .500 all season. Even if the Sox acquire Halladay, it would not make them the favorites to win the American League or the World Series.

If Halladay and Burls are on the mound in October, they would be one of the favorites...without question, imo...

JB98
07-11-2009, 02:38 PM
If Halladay and Burls are on the mound in October, they would be one of the favorites...without question, imo...

I don't think so. You need pitching to win in the playoffs, but you also need defense.

Our defense is subpar as it is. You trade Beckham and put Fields back in there, you make it even worse.

kitekrazy
07-13-2009, 12:18 AM
I wouldn't trade either Ramirez or Beckham for Halladay.

I think the Sox are better off trying to build a team from within. It seems like they finally have the pieces to do just that.

I don't want to blow that apart in some sort of "win now" scheme, especially given that the Sox have been hovering around .500 all season. Even if the Sox acquire Halladay, it would not make them the favorites to win the American League or the World Series.

This is the best baseball wisdom I've read all week.

Tragg
07-13-2009, 12:25 PM
If Halladay and Burls are on the mound in October, they would be one of the favorites...without question, imo...
Then why are the Blue Jays so mediocre?

DickAllen72
07-13-2009, 12:30 PM
Then why are the Blue Jays so mediocre?
Yeah, you're right. Who wants Halladay? A rotation of Halliday, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd/Contreras in the playoffs would be pretty mediocre.

spawn
07-13-2009, 12:34 PM
Yeah, you're right. Who wants Halladay? A rotation of Halliday, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd/Contreras in the playoffs would be pretty mediocre.
He didn't say he didn't want Halladay. He asked why the Blue Jays are so medicore with Halladay. It's a good question.

Domeshot17
07-13-2009, 12:35 PM
I wouldn't trade either Ramirez or Beckham for Halladay.

I think the Sox are better off trying to build a team from within. It seems like they finally have the pieces to do just that.

I don't want to blow that apart in some sort of "win now" scheme, especially given that the Sox have been hovering around .500 all season. Even if the Sox acquire Halladay, it would not make them the favorites to win the American League or the World Series.

The problem I have with this is where is the leader. Lets say things potentially play out like they seem.

Beckham has a chance to be a 300-20-100 RBI guy, which is awesome, especially at 2b, but it doesn't carry an offense. You are then 100% relying on Flowers Becoming the best hitter on the team from behind the plate, and Danks working out as a viable leadoff man. The X factor is Dayan, who has shown no power and a sub 700 OPS in AA, but has that in him. Then you hope Getz works out at 2b, I am no longer sure who is an option at first, We are atleast 3 years if not more away from Mitchell doing anything and Alexei might as well not show up until it hits 80 out.

On the pitching staff, You Have Danks and Floyd, You have then have Poreda and Richard, who are both 50/50 to ever even being a candidate as a starter. Lets say law of averages says 1 of them sticks. Lets for the sake of argument say Buehrle is not lying and he retires after his deal is up. Now we are banking 100% that Danks takes the step forward into a bonafide top of the rotation starter, and not the inconsistent with his control pitcher he is now (and for the record I think he has the stuff to do it).

There are so many X factors and Variables in building from within. There is not 1 guy right now you can with confidence could carry this team.

I have agreed now is not the time for a Halladay trade because our offense is terribly unsteady, but I don't know if building 100% from within is the right way to go. Roy Halladay is a top 5 pitcher in the league and probably a top 10 player overall. I don't know if we have any player on our roster who will ever be a top 10 overall player.

DickAllen72
07-13-2009, 12:36 PM
He didn't say he didn't want Halladay. He asked why the Blue Jays are so medicore with Halladay. It's a good question.
Because Halliday only pitches once every five days?

Foulke You
07-13-2009, 12:36 PM
Then why are the Blue Jays so mediocre?
Injuries to Marcum and McGowen and others combined with with the competition from the beasts of the AL East have largely derailed the Jays this year.

UChicagoHP
07-14-2009, 09:33 AM
Injuries to Marcum and McGowen and others combined with with the competition from the beasts of the AL East have largely derailed the Jays this year.

Agreed, the Blue Jays/Orioles/Devil Rays really are screwed...I almost feel sorry for their fans. As long as the RedSox/Yankees can spend $200 million and screw up a few big signings here and there, while the BAL/TB/TOR franchises need a perfect storm that occurs over a five year period(draft/development/etc) just to compete in the AL East.

There really isn't a logical solution(outside of something like the Euroleague set-up, maybe just rename the divisions, and have the first place team stay, the second place team move over, and so on)....If I was unlucky enough to be born a fan of an AL-East team not named the Yankees or Sox, at least in today's day and age, I'd probably give up on baseball(and I think this will happen to this current generation of 15-30 year olds). Baseball MUST do something, imo, but I doubt they will...expanding the playoffs to 6(move back to two divisions, the division winners get a bye)-8 teams for each league is the only thing I could see Selig pulling(and the owners would go for it, while the old-school fan-boys would most certainly cry...but hell, it at least gives the Jays/Orioles a shot)

Regarding the original point...Halladay and Burls, at the top of a rotation(key-as the Jays will never, or very rarely make it unless they luck into a few all-stars in the draft) would be extremely tough to beat IN October. In the AL-Central, getting to the playoffs isn't such a ridiculous challange like it is for Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa.

Tragg
07-14-2009, 05:26 PM
Because Halliday only pitches once every five days?
Which is the problem with trading everything you have for a player who plays once every 5 days. A team with DeWayne Wise wants to trade for Roy Halladay.
Toronto has several really good players plus Halladay and they aren't very good. They're flawed - so are we.

There is no way that he makes us the favorites to win this thing....we'd still be no better than 50/50 to even make the playoffs with him. He'd have to improve us 8 games to make the playoffs.
There are other things to consider - like Williams' record with "pile on the talent" trades: bad.

Frater Perdurabo
07-14-2009, 07:46 PM
He'd have to improve us 8 games to make the playoffs.

I think it's very likely - almost a certainty - that Halladay would win eight more games than Clayton Richard would win during the second half of this season.

Tragg
07-14-2009, 08:54 PM
I think it's very likely - almost a certainty - that Halladay would win eight more games than Clayton Richard would win during the second half of this season.
Nowhere near a certainty that in c. 15 starts Halladay would end up with 8 more Ws than Richard.
But that's not really the question - the question is would we win 8 more games in games that halladay starts v. Richard/Poreda/Colon. I think it's unlikely he would - 80%.