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View Full Version : A caller on B&B called the Peavy trade a "hoax" considering KW's attitude on Halladay


WhiteSoxFTW
07-10-2009, 02:55 PM
I heard a conversation between Dan Bernstein and Steve Rosenbloom after a listener wrote in and called the Peavy trade a "hoax". He cited a number of reasons including the fact that Holladay is a better pitcher, costs less, and KW "knew" that Peavy wouldn't waive the no-trade clause. He claims that it was a way to both raise the stock in Sox prospects for a future trade and for the Padres to keep interest in Peavy.

I hadn't really heard this discussion before. Anyone think this way?

Edit: Here is what he said in more detail.

He said that Peavy is more expensive and under contact for two more years after this season. Halladay is only under contract one more year after this year. He also is less of an injury risk and much better than Peavy. He said it wouldn't have made sense even if the Sox sold out every game to trade for Peavy, so he didn't want to hear that as the reason for not going after Halladay.

He said it was a smokescreen, but doesn't know why. He contends it could have been to make fans excited or perhaps a "scratch-my-back-and-I'll-scratch-yours thing" to spark more trade interest in Peavy and hype the Sox tradeable prospects. He said the Peavy trade was a hoax and not going after Halladay is all the evidence you need.

rdwj
07-10-2009, 03:00 PM
Well, if a listener wrote in about it, it must be true!

I think it's a crazy rumor. If KW is interested in Holladay, the best way to go about acquiring him, as we should ALL know by know, is to keep quiet about it until the deal is done.

I don't see how the "hoax" helps anyone - especially the White Sox.

WhiteSoxFTW
07-10-2009, 03:02 PM
Well, if a listener wrote in about it, it must be true!

I think it's a crazy rumor. If KW is interested in Holladay, the best way to go about acquiring him, as we should ALL know by know, is to keep quiet about it until the deal is done.

I don't see how the "hoax" helps anyone - especially the White Sox.

I am in no way saying it's true, but it's an interesting theory. At the time, the trade made little sense to me when the Sox spent the offseason dumping payroll.

Also, the listener who wrote in had a lot more reasons and I couldn't remember them all to write it down.

kravdog
07-10-2009, 03:03 PM
No.

While Peavy's contract is longer/total cost is greater, that also means that the Sox would have had a high caliber pitcher locked up through 2012. Halladay on the other hand is only signed through 2010. Big Difference.

Addtionally, Peavy for Clayton Richard and Poreda and parts would have been a steal. Based again on the years under control. But, Halladay as a 1.5 year rental for CR + Poreda + Beckham + ... is not nearly the bargin.

Redus Redux
07-10-2009, 03:08 PM
i dont buythe Peavy hoax thing. Why alienate Poreda/Richard even in the slightest?

Why cast the WS as a bad destination at the highest levels of nat'l media?

WhiteSoxFTW
07-10-2009, 03:08 PM
No.

While Peavy's contract is longer/total cost is greater, that also means that the Sox would have had a high caliber pitcher locked up through 2012. Halladay on the other hand is only signed through 2010. Big Difference.

Addtionally, Peavy for Clayton Richard and Poreda and parts would have been a steal. Based again on the years under control. But, Halladay as a 1.5 year rental for CR + Poreda + Beckham + ... is not nearly the bargin.

Beckham has been thrown around as an example, but has anyone with any credibility said that it would take him as part of the deal?

i dont buythe Peavy hoax thing. Why alienate Poreda/Richard even in the slightest?

Why cast the WS as a bad destination at the highest levels of nat'l media?


I'm not willing to trade Beckham, and I didn't even like the Peavy deal b/c I didn't think he would do nearly as well outside of Petco and the NL to earn that big of a contract...I just thought his argument was very interesting. That's all.

mantis1212
07-10-2009, 03:10 PM
The Peavy deal would have been a steal in terms of talent, like signing a free agent. Halladay will cost much more talent-wise because Toronto isn't as desperate.

Assuming what KW is saying to the press is true (which we have no idea), I think he's looking at the short-term costs when taking about attendence, etc.

The Peavy deal was a long-term answer, considering Contreras and Thome are off the books in November. I believe that's roughly $25MM in payroll opening up. I still think KW is going to give it a shot. Whether he fails or not, or whether it makes the papers or not, I can't imagine at least a phone call isn't placed.

Konerko05
07-10-2009, 03:20 PM
The Peavy hoax thing is a joke. Way too many people would have had to be in on it. Was Peavy acting as well?

It comes down to Toronto demanding much more in a trade for 2.5 less years of a pitcher.

WhiteSoxFTW
07-10-2009, 03:23 PM
The Peavy hoax thing is a joke. Way too many people would have had to be in on it. Was Peavy acting as well?

It comes down to Toronto demanding much more in a trade for 2.5 less years of a pitcher.

I was more interested in how many people also think it was a hoax...not advocating that it was.

But, I really think that KW had to be pretty sure ahead of time that Peavy would say no.

Eddo144
07-10-2009, 03:31 PM
No.

While Peavy's contract is longer/total cost is greater, that also means that the Sox would have had a high caliber pitcher locked up through 2012. Halladay on the other hand is only signed through 2010. Big Difference.

Addtionally, Peavy for Clayton Richard and Poreda and parts would have been a steal. Based again on the years under control. But, Halladay as a 1.5 year rental for CR + Poreda + Beckham + ... is not nearly the bargin.
:shrug:
Given both pitchers' injury histories, I'd say having to pay Halladay for only 1.5 years is a point in his favor.

Konerko05
07-10-2009, 03:43 PM
:shrug:
Given both pitchers' injury histories, I'd say having to pay Halladay for only 1.5 years is a point in his favor.

I look at it more as a window of opportunity.

White Sox trade Poreda and Richard for a four year window of opportunity to win with Peavy as the #1 starter.

White Sox trade Beckham/Ramirez/Flowers/John Danks quality players for a 1.5 year window of opportunity to win with Halladay as the #1 starter.

The Peavy deal helps the present and future without actually giving up the future.

The Halladay deal trades away huge pieces of the White Sox future to try to win right now.

Why give up that much talent if Williams process of building this team isn't even complete? This is obviously a transition year for the White Sox. I don't think it makes sense to trade the transitioning players for an attempt to win during the transition year. If that makes sense.

TommyJohn
07-10-2009, 03:57 PM
"they're coming to take me away, ha ha!"

TomBradley72
07-10-2009, 04:02 PM
I was more interested in how many people also think it was a hoax...not advocating that it was.

But, I really think that KW had to be pretty sure ahead of time that Peavy would say no.

Yep....KW invested all that time and effort...including talking to Peavy, asking Linebrink to help, etc...just to get "credit" for pursuing him.

What a load of crap. KW swings for the fences...some times it works out...sometimes it doesn't.

eriqjaffe
07-10-2009, 04:02 PM
I'm surprised the caller could get reception, what with all the tin foil.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 04:11 PM
I'm a big fans of the Bernstien Rosenbloom combo, plenty of good baseball talk. I like it.


As for this conspiracy, that was one of the thoughts that crossed my mind the day we found out Peavy was not coming. Here is what I wrote that day.

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=2236912&postcount=243

It did cross my mind that KW and Towers might have been in agreement on a deal which was impossible to make to begin with. And they both knew this but they accomplished this:


KW - It's been a disaster of a season so far. Struggling ticket sales, awful road trip, etc. The Sox needed to grab some front page news here with all the attention all the other teams including the Hawks are getting. It also put the team on notice that Kenny is ready to wheel and deal. Get your **** right was the message. He also set a market for Poreda and Clayton. I never heard Clayton's name mentioned so much on a national level as it was today.

Towers - Needed to spark the Peavy talks. Teams took notice. He can be had for less than what many expected. I expect many teams interested have already called the Padres to match what the Sox were offering.

KW and Towers were helping each other here. That's just my thought. No way were the Sox ready to load up the payroll once again, something which they were 100% avoiding all offseason. Why didn't they get involved for him in the spring?

That's my conspiracy theory.

rocky biddle
07-10-2009, 04:13 PM
Working in concert with another team to change a player's value is collusion, right? I doubt the ends would justify the means to pull off such a hoax; not to mention the hell the union would raise if it was proven.

I think if the Jays would be willing to take the same package that was offered for Peavy, Halladay would already be on his way to the south side.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 04:14 PM
Yep....KW invested all that time and effort...including talking to Peavy, asking Linebrink to help, etc...just to get "credit" for pursuing him.

What a load of crap. KW swings for the fences...some times it works out...sometimes it doesn't.


One key arguement Rosenbloom has, which is the million $$$ question:"

How was there $80 million available back then for Peavy and now there isn't $20 million available for Roy (who we all know is a much better pitcher) :scratch:

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 04:16 PM
Working in concert with another team to change a player's value is collusion, right? I doubt the ends would justify the means to pull off such a hoax; not to mention the hell the union would raise if it was proven.

I think if the Jays would be willing to take the same package that was offered for Peavy, Halladay would already be on his way to the south side.


Keep in mind that Peavy's price tag was so cheap due to the fact that the team taking him in was going to pay him $80 million.

$$$ is the biggest issue out there right now, and trades will be more about the money than what prospects are received in return.

WhiteSoxFTW
07-10-2009, 04:16 PM
I'm a big fans of the Bernstien Rosenbloom combo, plenty of good baseball talk. I like it.


As for this conspiracy, that was one of the thoughts that crossed my mind the day we found out Peavy was not coming. Here is what I wrote that day.

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=2236912&postcount=243 (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=2236912&postcount=243)

I'm a fan of it as well. I like Boers, but today's conversation has been a lot more sports and a lot less goofing off. It's been good baseball and good Bears talk today.

The way you put the "conspiracy theory" is a pretty logical, rational way to state it.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 04:25 PM
One key arguement Rosenbloom has, which is the million $$$ question:"

How was there $80 million available back then for Peavy and now there isn't $20 million available for Roy (who we all know is a much better pitcher) :scratch:


Because (as KW talked about the other day when fans said he was insulting their loyalty) in May they appeared to be having a normal/plus attendance season because the team was right where they were the previous few years in terms of attendance. However, when June came attendance didn't surge like it has in past seasons. As Kenny pointed out between the economy, the Sox struggles and the overpriced Dodgers' series, they have to revise their attendance forecast which thus affects the amount the team has to spend on additional payroll.

Basically, back in May they were projecting the money would be there to cover the Peavy contract. Now they are projecting it won't be. Thus they have changed how aggressive they will be in terms of going after high priced talent.

Thus, it's not a conspiracy to defraud the fans, merely a revised business model based on unanticipated negative cash flow projections. Hope that helps and you can now safely remove the tinfoil helmet...

Iwritecode
07-10-2009, 04:29 PM
Because (as KW talked about the other day when fans said he was insulting their loyalty) in May they appeared to be having a normal/plus attendance season because the team was right where they were the previous few years in terms of attendance. However, when June came attendance didn't surge like it has in past seasons. As Kenny pointed out between the economy, the Sox struggles and the overpriced Dodgers' series, they have to revise their attendance forecast which thus affects the amount the team has to spend on additional payroll.

Basically, back in May they were projecting the money would be there to cover the Peavy contract. Now they are projecting it won't be. Thus they have changed how aggressive they will be in terms of going after high priced talent.

Thus, it's not a conspiracy to defraud the fans, merely a revised business model based on unanticipated negative cash flow projections. Hope that helps and you can now safely remove the tinfoil helmet...

Well that and the "cost" in terms of players is more for Halliday than for Peavy.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 04:33 PM
Well that and the "cost" in terms of players is more for Halliday than for Peavy.

True. I was merely talking about the financial aspects.

Konerko05
07-10-2009, 04:35 PM
Because (as KW talked about the other day when fans said he was insulting their loyalty) in May they appeared to be having a normal/plus attendance season because the team was right where they were the previous few years in terms of attendance. However, when June came attendance didn't surge like it has in past seasons. As Kenny pointed out between the economy, the Sox struggles and the overpriced Dodgers' series, they have to revise their attendance forecast which thus affects the amount the team has to spend on additional payroll.

Basically, back in May they were projecting the money would be there to cover the Peavy contract. Now they are projecting it won't be. Thus they have changed how aggressive they will be in terms of going after high priced talent.

Thus, it's not a conspiracy to defraud the fans, merely a revised business model based on unanticipated negative cash flow projections. Hope that helps and you can now safely remove the tinfoil helmet...

I'm not buying that. A couple months of walk-up crowds in bad weather when the team was playing bad baseball is going to dictate moves on that magnitude? I don't see how a team willing to take on 80 mil over 4 years all of a sudden can't take on 20 mil over 1.5 years because attendance was down 1000 for 20 games.

Besides, they already cut payroll before the season started in anticipation of this drop-off in attendance. Now they are acting surprised by it?

Better baseball and better weather will improve the attendance for the rest of the summer. A big acquisition would also improve the attendance and the buzz around the team.

voodoochile
07-10-2009, 04:42 PM
I'm not buying that. A couple months of walk-up crowds in bad weather when the team was playing bad baseball is going to dictate moves on that magnitude? I don't see how a team willing to take on 80 mil over 4 years all of a sudden can't take on 20 mil over 1.5 years because attendance was down 1000 a game for 20 games.

Besides, they already cut payroll before the season started in anticipation of this drop-off in attendance. Now they are acting surprised by it?

Better baseball and better weather will improve the attendance for the rest of the summer. A big acquisition would also improve the attendance and the buzz around the team.

It's not 1000/game. That's how much they were down entering June. The previous years they have averaged well over 30K/game attendance from June-August. Last year they averaged nearly 35K/game for those months. This year they are averaging 25K. So at the moment they are down about 2K/game, but it looks like they will end up down about 10K/game by the end of the year. There are some good attendance draw series coming up in the Yankees and Bosox, but if other series continue to falter attendancewise, the money just won't be there.

This was ALL talked about in the other thread. It's not about the average they are drawing now, but whether the average is trending dramatically upward as it has in recent years. It isn't. They aren't getting the summer surge at present. Hopefully that changes and maybe KW will be willing to take on more payroll if it does, but at this moment in time he has to plan based on what he sees and what the finance people tell him and JR and thus deal with the budget based on those projections.

Frater Perdurabo
07-10-2009, 04:52 PM
KW always prefers to be "under the radar."

The Peavy deal was classic KW. The negotiations between KW and the Padres were conducted in perfect secrecy. It was all but completed - only awaiting Peavy's decision whether or not to approve the trade - when word got out in the media.

The Blue Jays leaked to the media that Halladay was available, so the media asked KW if he's in on the Halladay sweepstakes. KW being KW, he wants to be under the radar, and gives a plausible, believable reason, grounded in facts, to explain officially for the media why the Sox are not pursuing such a deal. To say that he is interested in a deal hurts his negotiating position.

It is still unlikely that the Sox acquire Halladay, but that has no bearing on the deal that was vetoed by Peavy himself.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 04:54 PM
Because (as KW talked about the other day when fans said he was insulting their loyalty) in May they appeared to be having a normal/plus attendance season because the team was right where they were the previous few years in terms of attendance. However, when June came attendance didn't surge like it has in past seasons. As Kenny pointed out between the economy, the Sox struggles and the overpriced Dodgers' series, they have to revise their attendance forecast which thus affects the amount the team has to spend on additional payroll.

Basically, back in May they were projecting the money would be there to cover the Peavy contract. Now they are projecting it won't be. Thus they have changed how aggressive they will be in terms of going after high priced talent.

Thus, it's not a conspiracy to defraud the fans, merely a revised business model based on unanticipated negative cash flow projections. Hope that helps and you can now safely remove the tinfoil helmet...


I'm having a tough time believing that the struggling attendance for one month (June) and one "key" series (Dodgers) made $80 million dissapear just like that.

The Sox win the ALCS because of Roy this year, I think they more than pay for his salary this year and next year. A struggling gate for one month should not dictate what the team can do to win this year and next. Roy is less of a financial commitment than Peavy was, by a long mile.

LoveYourSuit
07-10-2009, 04:56 PM
I'm a fan of it as well. I like Boers, but today's conversation has been a lot more sports and a lot less goofing off. It's been good baseball and good Bears talk today.

The way you put the "conspiracy theory" is a pretty logical, rational way to state it.

If True, then Kenny got the job done. Team playing so much better and actually getting some coverage now.

Towers failed because of Peavy's injury

jabrch
07-10-2009, 06:00 PM
Here are the facts we know about the Halladay acquisition...












Here's what we don't know...

What it would take for the Jays to trade him
If he'd waive his NTC to come here
If the Sox are willing to give up that type of package
If the Sox have the payroll flexibility to afford him
If JR will open the bank for this
What any other team is willing to pay for him
What other SP KW is working on acquiring
and a lot more

I'm gonna hold off on drawing any real conclusions here til there are a few more things we actually know.

sullythered
07-10-2009, 06:01 PM
KW always prefers to be "under the radar."

The Peavy deal was classic KW. The negotiations between KW and the Padres were conducted in perfect secrecy. It was all but completed - only awaiting Peavy's decision whether or not to approve the trade - when word got out in the media.

The Blue Jays leaked to the media that Halladay was available, so the media asked KW if he's in on the Halladay sweepstakes. KW being KW, he wants to be under the radar, and gives a plausible, believable reason, grounded in facts, to explain officially for the media why the Sox are not pursuing such a deal. To say that he is interested in a deal hurts his negotiating position.

It is still unlikely that the Sox acquire Halladay, but that has no bearing on the deal that was vetoed by Peavy himself.
I agree completely. I would be less surprised if the Sox traded for Dan Haren tomorrow than if we got Halladay. If only because there has been little to no Haren talk.

russ99
07-11-2009, 08:27 AM
I don't buy the Peavy "conspiracy" idea.

It happens all the time in sports. Either the team or the player desperately needs the trade done, GM of player's team wants to end the drama and takes less than expected, then player with NTC turns down the deal.

It just happened in hockey with the Ottawa-Edmonton Heatley deal.

rdivaldi
07-11-2009, 11:24 PM
I don't buy the Peavy "conspiracy" idea.

I don't think anyone that breathes oxygen does...

kitekrazy
07-12-2009, 03:39 PM
The Halladay trade will be a bigger hoax.