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View Full Version : We have a 4.3% chance to make the playoffs


tm1119
05-28-2009, 05:29 PM
According to Baseball Prospectus we only have a 4.3 % chance of making the playoffs this year. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Now, I've been saying that we most likely won't make the playoffs since the offseason moves were made, but 4.3? Thats the 6th worst % in the entire MLB.

DonnieDarko
05-28-2009, 05:30 PM
:whocares

DSpivack
05-28-2009, 05:32 PM
:rolling:

I love it when BP spews crap like this. That's not to say I think the Sox will make the playoffs, but the 'odds' that came up with are total BS. I'll never forget the 87% chance we had to make the playoffs after we clinched in 2005.

mantis1212
05-28-2009, 05:33 PM
So you're telling me there's a chance!
http://www.northernstars.ca/actorsabc/Media/carrey_dumber.jpg

LoveYourSuit
05-28-2009, 05:36 PM
So you're telling me there's a chance!
http://www.northernstars.ca/actorsabc/Media/carrey_dumber.jpg

Very well played!.

Greatest comedy to me alltime.

kittle42
05-28-2009, 06:01 PM
Cue another thread to beat up on statheads...

areilly
05-28-2009, 06:03 PM
Ha! Even the most casual observer would see this team has at least a 4.6 percent chance.

Fools, the whole lot of them!

cws05champ
05-28-2009, 08:46 PM
I have a 3.24% chance of posting on this thread........DOH!

maristsox
05-28-2009, 11:40 PM
So you're telling me there's a chance!
http://www.northernstars.ca/actorsabc/Media/carrey_dumber.jpg


swish

voodoochile
05-29-2009, 12:06 AM
According to Baseball Prospectus we only have a 4.3 % chance of making the playoffs this year. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Now, I've been saying that we most likely won't make the playoffs since the offseason moves were made, but 4.3? Thats the 6th worst % in the entire MLB.

Amazing the garbage stats you can generate when you take a whole bunch of other garbage stats and crunch them together 1000's of times.

october23sp
05-29-2009, 12:13 AM
So why do they play 162 games? Dodgers already have er locked up.
Tigers are the only team that don't have to beat the odds in the Central to get in. Shut the season down, its time for the playoffs. It will get done much sooner than November and it's summer so the kids won't have school in the mornings so the games can be played late into the night.

thomas35forever
05-29-2009, 01:24 AM
I don't believe BP for a second. They got lucky predicting our record in '07. You can't predict a season based on stats alone.

voodoochile
05-29-2009, 01:36 AM
I don't believe BP for a second. They got lucky predicting our record in '07. You can't predict a season based on stats alone.

How well did they do in 2005, 2006 and 2008?

WhiteSox5187
05-29-2009, 01:43 AM
Well, it was fun, but now that BP has said we have a 4.3% chance I guess we might as well stop playing now.

sullythered
05-29-2009, 02:24 AM
This is just silly and arbitrary.

guillensdisciple
05-29-2009, 02:29 AM
I don't believe in predictions- I believe in winning.

Luke
05-29-2009, 11:36 AM
It's 50/50. They either will make the playoffs or they will not.

PalehosePlanet
05-29-2009, 11:42 AM
They base this on over all run differential to date. In other words, had we not had 14-0 and 20-1 losses already we'd be in much better shape. Cleveland has won a few blowouts, including a 22-4 game, so they have a better chance then we do as of now.

kittle42
05-29-2009, 11:43 AM
It's 50/50. They either will make the playoffs or they will not.

While I haven't looked into the formulas BP used, this formula is certainly not true.

areilly
05-29-2009, 12:23 PM
It's 50/50. They either will make the playoffs or they will not.

Someone's been reading Klosterman.

downstairs
05-29-2009, 12:29 PM
http://www.coolstandings.com is better. He uses a formula that adjusts out the blowouts, and takes into account recent performance more than performance months ago.

If its not your thing, fine, don't go to the site.

To me its not that "they're saying the season is over!"... it just gives a more realistic picture of where we stand than mere games back (something everyone here tracks, especially near the end of the season).

Because it simulates the games, it takes into account all the crazy stuff that's impossible to think through on your own- like "sure we're 5 games back, but the two teams in front of us play each other, so blah blah blah.

AND if you don't like the runs scored for/against model- he has a coin flip model.

Don't think of it as a prediction site. Think of it as a way to see how much needs to be overcome, how far back we are, where we stand.

Eddo144
05-29-2009, 01:14 PM
It's 50/50. They either will make the playoffs or they will not.
Just like the lottery...you win or you don't.

For your own good, please never gamble on anything.

Luke
05-29-2009, 02:13 PM
Someone's been reading Klosterman.

Guilty.