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Rohan
05-12-2009, 12:47 PM
I'm getting really sick of seeing all the Armageddon posts here at White Sox Interactive. Quite frankly, 80% of the posts in the last day make my stomach churn with disgust.

Yes, our season is not going as well as we'd like it to. Yes, many of our batters are going through a slump. And yes, Our situational hitting is impeccably awful.

But, Gavin Floyd is NOT bull pen destined. Not only that, but he's probably our third best starter right now by a good distance. We all saw the same game last night, and Floyd did let up runs. But the caliber of his pitches were just as good, if not better than last year. Anyone who knows baseball and the White Sox would know that, when it comes down to it, Gavin's best game was last night.

He had a fast ball in the 91-93's. That's about what he had last year, and he was able to use it as a good set up pitch

His curve ball, which was around 78, was dropping like a hammer. That curve ball is what makes Gavin so effective, it's his out pitch. We saw a proficient curve ball from him for the first time this season last night.

His change up, also around 78, creates a stark contrast with the curve ball. If you watch his release, the curve and the change up are identical for the first 60% of the pitch. This makes it hard for hitters to tell whether the ball is going to break or not.

He struggled with control in the first couple innings, but he really did settle down after that. This Indian team does have a few hitters that are experienced, and know how to take advantage of pitchers mistakes.

Please White Sox Interactive posters... Keep your cool. I know it's frustrating to watch our team lose, but don't be dumb about it. This is baseball not dog racing. There's a science behind it, you can't ignore it.

doublem23
05-12-2009, 12:48 PM
His ERA is over 7.

He's bad right now.

Marqhead
05-12-2009, 12:50 PM
:welcome:

80% of the posts since I joined have made my stomach churn.

Gavin's in a bit of a slump, let's hope he pulls it together quick. I for one think he'll be fine.

asindc
05-12-2009, 12:58 PM
...Please White Sox Interactive posters... Keep your cool. I know it's frustrating to watch our team lose, but don't be dumb about it. This is baseball not dog racing. There's a science behind it, you can't ignore it.

I appreciate your passionate plea and definitely agree with what you said, but I have come to realize that some fans, for whatever reason, would rather write off the season with less than 20% of the games played than remain hopeful. It's not unique to WSI, so it must be a personality thing in general.

kobo
05-12-2009, 01:02 PM
I'm still concerned that he throws almost the same amount of pitches for balls and strikes. That's not good. That tells me he's all over the place and not locating his pitches. As long as that trend continues, Gavin's going to have trouble.

Huisj
05-12-2009, 01:13 PM
I think it's like what Guillen said about Floyd. His stuff is there, his location is not. Even with stuff, if he's behind every hitter, he is at a disadvantage, and he will get hit.

KenBerryGrab
05-12-2009, 01:16 PM
He's got to get ahead in counts. That 1-0, 2-0 progression he's in just kills him.

palehozenychicty
05-12-2009, 01:16 PM
His stuff is fine, but he needs to throw more strikes. Ironically, he looked great in ST.

khan
05-12-2009, 01:21 PM
I think it's like what Guillen said about Floyd. His stuff is there, his location is not. Even with stuff, if he's behind every hitter, he is at a disadvantage, and he will get hit.

This sounds a LOT like what everyone was saying about MacDougal: Great stuff, ****ty location. Both MacDougal then and Floyd now are not looking good, like it or not.

Put into stark reality, Gavin Floyd, over 39.1 IP: 53 hits, 33 runs, ONLY 31 Ks, and 21 Walks.

That's right, not only more hits than IP, but MORE RUNS than Ks. Opponents are hitting .315 against the now-financially set Gavin Floyd.

I'd like to hope that Gavin Floyd was "Not so bad," but right now, he's been craptacular. We need him to be better in order to compete.

JB98
05-12-2009, 01:34 PM
Floyd can't locate his fastball to save his life right now, and he's going to struggle as long as that continues to be the case. He has to establish the fastball in order to make his curve an out pitch.

I really wasn't expecting Floyd to duplicate his 2008 season, but I hope that he can be a league-average, middle-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case in the early going.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 01:38 PM
I appreciate your passionate plea and definitely agree with what you said, but I have come to realize that some fans, for whatever reason, would rather write off the season with less than 20% of the games played than remain hopeful. It's not unique to WSI, so it must be a personality thing in general.
It's not just fans of teams, it's our society in general.

Everyone loves to be the "first" to say something is going to fail and then rejoice when it does. It's sort of a sick perversion we have. I guess it makes us feel better about ourselves.

kittle42
05-12-2009, 01:50 PM
We all saw the same game last night, and Floyd did let up runs. But the caliber of his pitches were just as good, if not better than last year. Anyone who knows baseball and the White Sox would know that, when it comes down to it, Gavin's best game was last night.

He had a fast ball in the 91-93's. That's about what he had last year, and he was able to use it as a good set up pitch

His curve ball, which was around 78, was dropping like a hammer. That curve ball is what makes Gavin so effective, it's his out pitch. We saw a proficient curve ball from him for the first time this season last night.

His change up, also around 78, creates a stark contrast with the curve ball. If you watch his release, the curve and the change up are identical for the first 60% of the pitch. This makes it hard for hitters to tell whether the ball is going to break or not.

He struggled with control in the first couple innings, but he really did settle down after that. This Indian team does have a few hitters that are experienced, and know how to take advantage of pitchers mistakes.

Man, am I going to hate to see what he looks like when he's not throwing so well.

tm1119
05-12-2009, 01:51 PM
It's not just fans of teams, it's our society in general.

Everyone loves to be the "first" to say something is going to fail and then rejoice when it does. It's sort of a sick perversion we have. I guess it makes us feel better about ourselves.

Or some people are just realistic and can simply look at our team and realize that it is not very good. To sit here and say that everything is fine and we will be ok is pretty delusional. Unless changes are made then we are going to continue to struggle.

LoveYourSuit
05-12-2009, 01:57 PM
Or some people are just realistic and can simply look at our team and realize that it is not very good. To sit here and say that everything is fine and we will be ok is pretty delusional. Unless changes are made then we are going to continue to struggle.


I agree. Call it what it is. White Sox baseball sucks bad right now. Can it get better, sure. But it is what it is right now, very bad baseball.


I can guarantee that for 98% of the so called "dark clouds" and "pants pissers," this is not happy teams. There is no "rejoice" for something like this.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 02:00 PM
Or some people are just realistic and can simply look at our team and realize that it is not very good. To sit here and say that everything is fine and we will be ok is pretty delusional. Unless changes are made then we are going to continue to struggle.
A lot of people said the same things last spring at this time.

2008 turned out OK.

WhiteSox5187
05-12-2009, 02:00 PM
No, he's bad. Maybe he can turn it around, but for right now he's bad.

doublem23
05-12-2009, 02:01 PM
I agree. Call it what it is. White Sox baseball sucks bad right now. Can it get better, sure. But it is what it is right now, very bad baseball.


I can guarantee that for 98% of the so called "dark clouds" and "pants pissers," this is not happy teams. There is no "rejoice" for something like this.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think there are plenty of people happy to pat themselves on the back everytime something goes wrong.

CWSpalehoseCWS
05-12-2009, 02:04 PM
I agree. Call it what it is. White Sox baseball sucks bad right now. Can it get better, sure. But it is what it is right now, very bad baseball.


I can guarantee that for 98% of the so called "dark clouds" and "pants pissers," this is not happy teams. There is no "rejoice" for something like this.

100% agreed. This team is bad right now. While I believe they will turn it around, there is a good chance that we could be dealing with this all season, and it's something that needs to be realized. There is no way that we can win this division with only Buehrle and Danks. Floyd, as does the rest of the rotation, needs to step it up for this team to go anywhere.

voodoochile
05-12-2009, 02:05 PM
You're kidding yourself if you don't think there are plenty of people happy to pat themselves on the back everytime something goes wrong.

And there will be plenty of people willing to crow "I told you so" in August if the Sox fail to turn this around.

Rohan
05-12-2009, 02:06 PM
No, he's bad. Maybe he can turn it around, but for right now he's bad.

The idea is that he has the stuff. And he's SMART. I don't know if you guys have heard him talk about his pitching. He's not Mike MacDougal. He's an intelligent pitcher. He's an athlete. He's just in need of some coaching. And we've got just the coach to do it.

Jerome
05-12-2009, 03:15 PM
the guy who made the thread discussing the merits of possibly trading Gavin over the winter will have a laugh or two at this

I think he'll be fine, its the 4 and 5 spots that really scare me. Because even if the bats do come around, with only a 3 man rotation this team isn't going anywhere.

kittle42
05-12-2009, 03:35 PM
And there will be plenty of people willing to crow "I told you so" in August if the Sox fail to turn this around.

The past few seasons, anytime someone questions in the offseason what the hell this team is doing, then questions results anytime before, say, September, they get shouted down. I find that equally annoying.

voodoochile
05-12-2009, 03:56 PM
The past few seasons, anytime someone questions in the oiffseason what the hell this team is doing, then questions results anytime before, say, September, they get shouted down. I find that equally annoying.

Not like the other side hasn't been doing it's fair share of shouting. I mean both sides get pretty vocal, so to blame the realists for pissing on the dark clouds but not acknowledge there is blame to pass around the other way too seems a bit hypocritical...

LoveYourSuit
05-12-2009, 03:58 PM
And there will be plenty of people willing to crow "I told you so" in August if the Sox fail to turn this around.


Crow, rejoice, whatever.

It is still a miserable season and a sad one if we can't turn this thing around.

For a die hard Sox fan, this is no fun.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 05:33 PM
May 12, 2008- White Sox- 18-19 .486
May 12, 2009- White Sox- 14-17 .452

I don't really understand the need for panic, but a lot of people apparently do.

Rohan
05-12-2009, 06:08 PM
May 12, 2008- White Sox- 18-19 .486
May 12, 2009- White Sox- 14-17 .452

I don't really understand the need for panic, but a lot of people apparently do.

Things will come around. Gavin is not worthless.

When/where did Konerko say the quote in your signature?

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 06:10 PM
In Minnesota during his disasterous 2003 season after getting hit in the groin with a pitch while the bases were loaded.

EndemicSox
05-12-2009, 06:24 PM
Some of the detailed stats suggested last season was a bit flukish for Floyd, but I didn't expect him to suck, I see him as Garland-esque/slightly above average inning eater, which is fine as long as Danks and Burls are pitching like #1/#2's, and the back end isn't horrific(yet to be determined).

tm1119
05-12-2009, 06:49 PM
May 12, 2008- White Sox- 18-19 .486
May 12, 2009- White Sox- 14-17 .452

I don't really understand the need for panic, but a lot of people apparently do.

Our front office went cheap on us this year and its showing with the talent level on the field. It was obvious that our pitching was going to struggle, and its seeming like the young kids that they were hoping could play cant.

oeo
05-12-2009, 06:54 PM
Our front office went cheap on us this year and its showing with the talent level on the field.

The Sox were not the only team that cut payroll.

This team, at it's best, is simply as mediocre as last year's team. Which could win the division again, but that's about their ceiling. A lot of old farts coming off the payroll this year (and next), and we've got some guys to brag about in the minors. It's not all doom and gloom because the franchise is in good shape.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 07:10 PM
Our front office went cheap on us this year and its showing with the talent level on the field. It was obvious that our pitching was going to struggle, and its seeming like the young kids that they were hoping could play cant.
What, precisely would you have had them do?

Who exactly did you want them to buy?

russ99
05-12-2009, 07:25 PM
Our front office went cheap on us this year and its showing with the talent level on the field. It was obvious that our pitching was going to struggle, and its seeming like the young kids that they were hoping could play cant.

Agreed it looks that way now, but let's hope they snap out of it.

And of not, hopefully Kenny learns his lesson from 2007 when he sat back and did nothing to fix an obviously bad team. And no, Bukvich, Prinz and Myers don't count as "fixes".

tm1119
05-12-2009, 07:25 PM
What, precisely would you have had them do?

Who exactly did you want them to buy?

I never said it was the wrong move. That was just my response to all of the people saying things like "its too early to tell" ,and stuff like that. I actually think this team can rebound nicely next year with the moves made this offseason. Just expecting this team to suddenly turn it around this year is pretty unrealistic.

russ99
05-12-2009, 07:27 PM
What, precisely would you have had them do?

Who exactly did you want them to buy?

The bottom fell out of the FA market this year. Kenny could have gotten any number of mid-level inning eater pitchers and also hitters like Dunn or Hudson who all signed for well below market value.

But again, It's not Kenny who should be criticized for doing his best with the resources allocated, it's Jerry for cutting payroll $20M after a division title and continued good ticket sales.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 07:42 PM
I never said it was the wrong move. That was just my response to all of the people saying things like "its too early to tell" ,and stuff like that. I actually think this team can rebound nicely next year with the moves made this offseason. Just expecting this team to suddenly turn it around this year is pretty unrealistic.
"went cheap on us" isn't exactly a phrase that indicates a lot of pleasure/confidence in a move.

Bobby Thigpen
05-12-2009, 07:45 PM
The bottom fell out of the FA market this year. Kenny could have gotten any number of mid-level inning eater pitchers and also hitters like Dunn or Hudson who all signed for well below market value.

But again, It's not Kenny who should be criticized for doing his best with the resources allocated, it's Jerry for cutting payroll $20M after a division title and continued good ticket sales.
Dunn? Isn't all the angry people on here's #1 point is that the Sox need less all or nothing power hitters?

I don't know. I guess my point is that a major portion of the people that are members here are not going to be happy one way or another.

Domeshot17
05-12-2009, 07:46 PM
Agreed it looks that way now, but let's hope they snap out of it.

And of not, hopefully Kenny learns his lesson from 2007 when he sat back and did nothing to fix an obviously bad team. And no, Bukvich, Prinz and Myers don't count as "fixes".

clearly the lesson has been learned with Broadway Gobble Richard....wait a sec....Deja Vu moment

dickallen15
05-12-2009, 07:56 PM
May 12, 2008- White Sox- 18-19 .486
May 12, 2009- White Sox- 14-17 .452

I don't really understand the need for panic, but a lot of people apparently do.

May 12,2007 18-15. Comparing records with past seasons isn't any indication of future trends. The personnel is very different.

tm1119
05-12-2009, 09:42 PM
"went cheap on us" isn't exactly a phrase that indicates a lot of pleasure/confidence in a move.

Well I wouldnt exactly say that I am pleased with the moves. Its just that there is a bright side to them. Its been a while since we could look forward to multiple prospects coming up at the same time.
It really feels like the front office bailed on this year early and started to look for the future. And like I said, theres good and bad to that.

gosox41
05-12-2009, 10:26 PM
Well I wouldnt exactly say that I am pleased with the moves. Its just that there is a bright side to them. Its been a while since we could look forward to multiple prospects coming up at the same time.
It really feels like the front office bailed on this year early and started to look for the future. And like I said, theres good and bad to that.

The economy is in lousy shape. Corporate ad deals were renewed at lower rates the last year and if the economy stays this way, the 2010 expring sponsorships may be renwed for a lot less too.

Business is business. I made cutbacks on our house due to the economy. Am I being cheap or being financally prudent?

The Sox were smart considering they were going into an uncertain financial future. When they were trading off salaries, they rec'd some good talent in return. The read the market correctly and made trades early. Try trading away some of the same talent today and you'd be lucky to get what you got because of how the FA market turned out. Some teams are late and missed the concept. I think the July 31 trade deadline will be interesting as I can see a lot of bigger name/salaried players moving to contending teams that planned for this economic envirnonment.


Bob

sunofgold
05-12-2009, 10:36 PM
C'mon he has been horrible , especially the last two starts. Good stuff means nothing if you cannot throw it for strikes or get batters out with it. I really hope that Gavin turns it around and fast.

Gavin
05-12-2009, 10:47 PM
May 12,2007 18-15. Comparing records with past seasons isn't any indication of future trends. The personnel is very different.

POTW material. Thank you for putting that stupid argument to rest.

tm1119
05-12-2009, 11:26 PM
The economy is in lousy shape. Corporate ad deals were renewed at lower rates the last year and if the economy stays this way, the 2010 expring sponsorships may be renwed for a lot less too.

Business is business. I made cutbacks on our house due to the economy. Am I being cheap or being financally prudent?

The Sox were smart considering they were going into an uncertain financial future. When they were trading off salaries, they rec'd some good talent in return. The read the market correctly and made trades early. Try trading away some of the same talent today and you'd be lucky to get what you got because of how the FA market turned out. Some teams are late and missed the concept. I think the July 31 trade deadline will be interesting as I can see a lot of bigger name/salaried players moving to contending teams that planned for this economic envirnonment.


Bob

MLB franchises make money by winning. If ownership puts together a winning team the money will follow through increased ticket sales, merchandise, ect. Putting a crappy team on the field now only gives people more of a reason to save their $ and not go to the ballpark. I'm not saying that we should have gone out spent a whole bunch of money, but to cut the payroll by around 20 million dollars is either A) being cheap or B) consenting that we are rebuilding and saving the money for the future.

Bobby Thigpen
05-13-2009, 12:23 AM
May 12,2007 18-15. Comparing records with past seasons isn't any indication of future trends. The personnel is very different.
Agreed. It was done more to show that the end of the world is not upon us in Soxdom. Who knows what the rest of the season will bring?

That's why they play the games...

Bobby Thigpen
05-13-2009, 12:25 AM
MLB franchises make money by winning.
Not necessarily true. Look at the Cubs....

tm1119
05-13-2009, 12:27 AM
Not necessarily true. Look at the Cubs....

Ha touche. But most of the time its true.

Nellie_Fox
05-13-2009, 12:58 AM
It's not just fans of teams, it's our society in general.

Everyone loves to be the "first" to say something is going to fail and then rejoice when it does. It's sort of a sick perversion we have. I guess it makes us feel better about ourselves.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think there are plenty of people happy to pat themselves on the back everytime something goes wrong.
It's a no-lose situation to be the first to start predicting disaster. If things go bad, you can say "see, I told you guys this a long time ago, when no one else saw it coming." If things turn out well, you can say "boy, am I glad I was wrong! Wooohoooo!"

Mohoney
05-13-2009, 01:20 AM
I'm not saying that we should have gone out spent a whole bunch of money, but to cut the payroll by around 20 million dollars is either A) being cheap or B) consenting that we are rebuilding and saving the money for the future.

It could also be C) There were $20 million more dollars in the coffers at this time last year than there are this year at the same point.

It could also be D) Revenue projections for this year point to somewhere around $20 million less than last year's revenue.

If I had to guess, I don't think that $20 million will just go straight into the pockets of the ownership group as a huge 2009 profit. I think it's more likely that the ownership group just wants to make sure that they don't lose their asses, and with this economy the way it is, I can't really blame them.

TheOldRoman
05-13-2009, 01:28 AM
POTW material. Thank you for putting that stupid argument to rest.No, it wasn't stupid, and he did nothing to put it to rest.

Nobody was saying we are going to win the division this year because we did last year with the same record in May. He was merely pointing out to the "ZOMG! This is the worst team EVAR!!1!!" people that maybe the season isn't over yet.

Obviously, many people go into the season with a negative perception of the team. With many of them, not only do the know the Sox suck, but they are so far intellectually superior to anyone who is dumb enough to believe that maybe the Sox have a chance. As much as they whine "we have to be Pollyannas, no realism allowed", their point of view has nothing to do with realism. Giving up on a team or boasting snarkily about how bad they are (or that you were an oracle who predicted the team would be horrible) is NOT realism.

The thing I don't understand is, these people have been around here for awhile. Have any of them following a ****ing baseball season? There are ups and downs. When a team like the Sox is playing poorly in late April/early May, it is kinda hard to judge them. In a vaccuum the team looks bad, but it is a long season. If you looked at the Sox in August of 2005, that team looks like it is on pace to go 67-95 (12-16 that month). Imagine the jumping off of buildings if that record would have come in April.

We don't know the identity of this team yet, and it may end up being a 4th place team. However, claiming that the team sucks and anyone who doesn't see it is a Pollyanna because the team is 2.5 games out on May 12 after losing 2 CFs and having a good young starter who is struggling and one who is having trouble coming back from a ruptured achilles is asinine.

asindc
05-13-2009, 09:23 AM
No, it wasn't stupid, and he did nothing to put it to rest.

Nobody was saying we are going to win the division this year because we did last year with the same record in May. He was merely pointing out to the "ZOMG! This is the worst team EVAR!!1!!" people that maybe the season isn't over yet.

Obviously, many people go into the season with a negative perception of the team. With many of them, not only do the know the Sox suck, but they are so far intellectually superior to anyone who is dumb enough to believe that maybe the Sox have a chance. As much as they whine "we have to be Pollyannas, no realism allowed", their point of view has nothing to do with realism. Giving up on a team or boasting snarkily about how bad they are (or that you were an oracle who predicted the team would be horrible) is NOT realism.

The thing I don't understand is, these people have been around here for awhile. Have any of them following a ****ing baseball season? There are ups and downs. When a team like the Sox is playing poorly in late April/early May, it is kinda hard to judge them. In a vaccuum the team looks bad, but it is a long season. If you looked at the Sox in August of 2005, that team looks like it is on pace to go 67-95 (12-16 that month). Imagine the jumping off of buildings if that record would have come in April.

We don't know the identity of this team yet, and it may end up being a 4th place team. However, claiming that the team sucks and anyone who doesn't see it is a Pollyanna because the team is 2.5 games out on May 12 after losing 2 CFs and having a good young starter who is struggling and one who is having trouble coming back from a ruptured achilles is asinine.

Quoted for Truth. Enough of the shifting of the debate.

Billy Ashley
05-13-2009, 09:56 AM
He's not that good of a pitcher. Look at his peripherals last season- he had average to below average K-rates, walk rates, and K.BB ratio. The only things he did well were BABIP (which he has no control over) and HR's (which looks out of character considering his track record.

The White Sox had two young pitchers emerge last season. One was a mirage, the other will be an ace if he can stay healthy.

Floyd could potentially be a decent option at the back end of a rotation on a good club. I'd expect ERAs around 4.50-5.00. Serviceable, nothing more.

EndemicSox
05-13-2009, 02:20 PM
He's not that good of a pitcher. Look at his peripherals last season- he had average to below average K-rates, walk rates, and K.BB ratio. The only things he did well were BABIP (which he has no control over) and HR's (which looks out of character considering his track record.

The White Sox had two young pitchers emerge last season. One was a mirage, the other will be an ace if he can stay healthy.

Floyd could potentially be a decent option at the back end of a rotation on a good club. I'd expect ERAs around 4.50-5.00. Serviceable, nothing more.

This is most likely the case, however, his "stuff" is excellent when he is on. And his curveball is one of the best in the league. His control issues/lack of command probably means he will top out as #3, but like you said, that is more than serviceable.

Rohan
05-13-2009, 03:36 PM
This is most likely the case, however, his "stuff" is excellent when he is on. And his curveball is one of the best in the league. His control issues/lack of command probably means he will top out as #3, but like you said, that is more than serviceable.

And he control issues can be tamed. He's not a fluke.

southside rocks
05-13-2009, 03:41 PM
No, it wasn't stupid, and he did nothing to put it to rest.

Nobody was saying we are going to win the division this year because we did last year with the same record in May. He was merely pointing out to the "ZOMG! This is the worst team EVAR!!1!!" people that maybe the season isn't over yet.

Obviously, many people go into the season with a negative perception of the team. With many of them, not only do the know the Sox suck, but they are so far intellectually superior to anyone who is dumb enough to believe that maybe the Sox have a chance. As much as they whine "we have to be Pollyannas, no realism allowed", their point of view has nothing to do with realism. Giving up on a team or boasting snarkily about how bad they are (or that you were an oracle who predicted the team would be horrible) is NOT realism.

The thing I don't understand is, these people have been around here for awhile. Have any of them following a ****ing baseball season? There are ups and downs. When a team like the Sox is playing poorly in late April/early May, it is kinda hard to judge them. In a vaccuum the team looks bad, but it is a long season. If you looked at the Sox in August of 2005, that team looks like it is on pace to go 67-95 (12-16 that month). Imagine the jumping off of buildings if that record would have come in April.

We don't know the identity of this team yet, and it may end up being a 4th place team. However, claiming that the team sucks and anyone who doesn't see it is a Pollyanna because the team is 2.5 games out on May 12 after losing 2 CFs and having a good young starter who is struggling and one who is having trouble coming back from a ruptured achilles is asinine.

I agree with you, well put.

Also, it's the internet, for goodness sake! Anybody with time on their hands and internet access -- and a password -- can post, on this and many other boards; the poster might have not the faintest clue about what he/she is bloviating about, but they can take a lot of space and make themselves heard. People who feel more moderately about a topic usually don't make the effort to out-shout the doomsayers, so reading a board, one might get the idea that indeed, the sky is falling!

Gavin Floyd is a young pitcher in process. I had hoped that he would come out of the gate in 2009 building on his 2008 season; he has not done so, and for a while he may be in a 'two steps forward, one step back' learning curve. The Sox thought enough of his potential for development to sign him to a long-term contract, so I'm sure they are not panicking now that he's scuffling a bit.

A baseball season is a progress, a growth process, and fascinating to watch -- but people who freak out at every loss often won't see the smaller stuff that makes the game so interesting. Been a fan for 40+ years, myself, and enjoyed a lot of seasons of Sox that didn't end with the Commissioner's Trophy being presented to the White Sox manager. I'm just saying.

shes
05-14-2009, 11:54 AM
It's a no-lose situation to be the first to start predicting disaster. If things go bad, you can say "see, I told you guys this a long time ago, when no one else saw it coming." If things turn out well, you can say "boy, am I glad I was wrong! Wooohoooo!"

It can just as easily be called a no-win situation :cool:

All signs point to Floyd's 2008 season being very flukish. Admit it or not, and call me a propellerhead if you will, but he was lucky. Virtually every publication predicted a considerate fall back to Earth for Gavin this year, and with good reason. Guys with his track record typically have breakout years because they add a second out pitch (see Danks last year, Loaiza in 2003), significantly better their K/BB ratio, or simply catch more breaks than the average pitcher.

Floyd isn't a bad pitcher by any stretch, but he's not a perennial all-star caliber player. A lot of posters here penciled him in for another 15-18 win season with a sub-4.00 ERA, which was a massive reach. Those kind of pitchers are few and far between, especially in the AL. .500 with a 4.25 - 4.75 ERA is a much more realistic outlook, I think. Great 4th/5th starter, merely okay 3rd starter.

Law11
05-14-2009, 02:53 PM
Gavin was this way last year at times, high HR percentage, a lot of hits given up. But he had one thing last year he doesnt have yet this year (yet).
Run Support.

The Sox gave him almost 6 runs on avg a game last year. With that kind of offensive support it makes it a bit easier to win 17 games.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 03:01 PM
It can just as easily be called a no-win situation :cool:

All signs point to Floyd's 2008 season being very flukish. Admit it or not, and call me a propellerhead if you will, but he was lucky. Virtually every publication predicted a considerate fall back to Earth for Gavin this year, and with good reason. Guys with his track record typically have breakout years because they add a second out pitch (see Danks last year, Loaiza in 2003), significantly better their K/BB ratio, or simply catch more breaks than the average pitcher.

Floyd isn't a bad pitcher by any stretch, but he's not a perennial all-star caliber player. A lot of posters here penciled him in for another 15-18 win season with a sub-4.00 ERA, which was a massive reach. Those kind of pitchers are few and far between, especially in the AL. .500 with a 4.25 - 4.75 ERA is a much more realistic outlook, I think. Great 4th/5th starter, merely okay 3rd starter.

Have you looked at his Pitch FX data from last season to see if it's any different than the year before or this year? I haven't but it would be interesting to see if he in fact pitched exactly the same- only with better results in 08.

shes
05-14-2009, 03:36 PM
Last year he had an astoundingly low BABIP, around .260. No player keeps that up season after season. When it normalizes, so do the ERA and W/L columns.

EndemicSox
05-14-2009, 03:40 PM
Last year he had an astoundingly low BABIP, around .260. No player keeps that up season after season. When it normalizes, so do the ERA and W/L columns.

Pretty much, although I believe if a pitcher has one elite pitch(and I think Gavin's curve, when it is on, can be considered elite) it may skew the BABIP stat, just a bit. Not so much that it makes the stat worthless, far from it(I think BABIP is extremely valuable, and I certainly believe Gavin had lady luck on his side last year), but a bit...just my opinion...I'm sure the saber-heads will correct me if I'm totally off-base.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 03:43 PM
Last year he had an astoundingly low BABIP, around .260. No player keeps that up season after season. When it normalizes, so do the ERA and W/L columns.

Certainly, I've been arguing about his BABIP and FIP for a while- Among AL pitchers- he, Matsuzaka and Joe Saunders looked really really lucky.

The reason I wanted to see if there is a difference in his pitch fx data is that pitch fx is a scouting tool- and I get shouted down for being a stat head when ever I argue things beyond AVE, HR, RBI, W, K, and ERA.

russ99
05-14-2009, 03:46 PM
Dunn? Isn't all the angry people on here's #1 point is that the Sox need less all or nothing power hitters?

I don't know. I guess my point is that a major portion of the people that are members here are not going to be happy one way or another.

All the speculation on Dunn was only if the Sox traded Dye for a pitcher.

Who's to say Kenny didn't try some of these things, but it seems to me his track record as GM reflects much more favorably when he has payroll to add talent in the offseason than when he does not.

And I'm sure management had fairly good reasons to reduce payroll, but it looks bad after a Division title, a full house all summer and good ticket sales this year so far.

Just because they wanted to reduce payroll doesn't mean they had to trade vets for prospects 2-3 years away from the bigs, let free agents sign elsewhere - and then stand pat and not let Kenny add any major league talent to fill obvious holes on the roster, which is the plan which still continues to this day, if I'm not mistaken.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 03:47 PM
Pretty much, although I believe if a pitcher has one elite pitch(and I think Gavin's curve, when it is on, can be considered elite) it may skew the BABIP stat, just a bit. Not so much that it makes the stat worthless, far from it(I think BABIP is extremely valuable), but a bit...just my opinion...I'm sure the saber-heads will correct me if I'm totally off-base.


Studies have demonstrated that the only people who can control their babip are knuckleballers. They don't even really control it either- they just achieve results that torpedo the entire theory.

Conventional throwers on the other hand- are slaves to the three true outcomes. Beyond walks, strike outs and home runs- they're pretty much irrelevant*.

*Though I know many smart people who argue for xfip which operates the same way as FIP, only it also includes the pitchers line drive rates, flyball rates and so. Honestly, even though I've never done the research necessary to make any conclusive arguments- I'd probably aliegn myself with this crowd- though it is my understanding that they believe that LD% and so on matter little compared to the Ks, BBs, and HRs.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 03:48 PM
All the speculation on Dunn was only if the Sox traded Dye for a pitcher.

Who's to say Kenny didn't try some of these things, but it seems to me his track record as GM reflects much more favorably when he has payroll to add talent in the offseason than when he does not.

And I'm sure management had fairly good reasons to reduce payroll, but that doesn't mean they had to stand pat and not let Kenny add any major league talent to fill obvious holes on the roster.


Dunn's an elite hitter who imitates an outfielder. He really should be a DH. I like him a lot, but he gives a ton of runs back in the field.

asindc
05-14-2009, 04:06 PM
Dunn's an elite hitter who imitates an outfielder. He really should be a DH. I like him a lot, but he gives a ton of runs back in the field.

KC or Seattle could really use him.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 06:22 PM
KC or Seattle could really use him.

Yeah the M's could use him a lot- KC, I'm not sure- they've got a couple talented youngsters who shouldn't even bother owning a baseball glove.

It's strange the Nats of all teams signed Dunn. He was a great value in terms of money- but it's not like they're going to be good with in the next two years. Furthermore, they already have about 19 options for the OF on the 25 man alone.

DSpivack
05-14-2009, 06:27 PM
Yeah the M's could use him a lot- KC, I'm not sure- they've got a couple talented youngsters who shouldn't even bother owning a baseball glove.

It's strange the Nats of all teams signed Dunn. He was a great value in terms of money- but it's not like they're going to be good with in the next two years. Furthermore, they already have about 19 options for the OF on the 25 man alone.

They desperately needed some offense. Their pitching is absolutely atrocious this year, but they're scoring some runs.

Jim Shorts
05-14-2009, 09:26 PM
They desperately needed some offense. Their pitching is absolutely atrocious this year, but they're scoring some runs.

And wasn't he from the area? Thought I heard that when the dunn to DC rumors started.

DSpivack
05-14-2009, 09:33 PM
And wasn't he from the area? Thought I heard that when the dunn to DC rumors started.

You're probably thinking of Teixeira, who is from Severna Park, MD. Closer to Baltimore than it is DC, but still not that far. Gavin Floyd is from the same town.

Wiki says Dunn is from Texas.

tm1119
05-14-2009, 10:58 PM
Yeah the M's could use him a lot- KC, I'm not sure- they've got a couple talented youngsters who shouldn't even bother owning a baseball glove.

It's strange the Nats of all teams signed Dunn. He was a great value in terms of money- but it's not like they're going to be good with in the next two years. Furthermore, they already have about 19 options for the OF on the 25 man alone.

It was actually pretty smart when you think of the 2 picks they will get for Dunn after this year. 2 picks in exchange for 7 mil or so over only 1 year for a rebuilding team is pretty good value.

Billy Ashley
05-14-2009, 11:07 PM
It was actually pretty smart when you think of the 2 picks they will get for Dunn after this year. 2 picks in exchange for 7 mil or so over only 1 year for a rebuilding team is pretty good value.

Wasn't it a two year contract? Even so- I agree offering him arb should net two draft picks, however as we saw this past off-season if the market is saturated in outfielders and the economy is in the tank, Dunn may not have any suitors.

canOcorn
05-14-2009, 11:13 PM
It was actually pretty smart when you think of the 2 picks they will get for Dunn after this year. 2 picks in exchange for 7 mil or so over only 1 year for a rebuilding team is pretty good value.

Will ownership offer arbitration? After forking out the cash for Strasburg?

Wasn't it a two year contract? Even so- I agree offering him arb should net two draft picks, however as we saw this past off-season if the market is saturated in outfielders and the economy is in the tank, Dunn may not have any suitors.

Dunn will get signed.